Five minutes from the Kremlin: new missiles for Europe
Winter Is Coming
In the first few months of the special military operation, everyone was talking about the return of the Cold War. It looks like you can only really worry about this now. Games with intercontinental ballistic missiles are characterized by a fairly large time interval between launch and hitting the target. Several tens of minutes can pass from the moment the torch of an ascending missile is detected until the multiple warheads fall on the target. Most often they talk about 40 minutes. During this time, you can take refuge in a bunker and have time to adequately attack the warmonger. It is not for nothing that Russia’s doctrine is now based on the reciprocal logic of using strategic nuclear weapons. weapons. On the topic of strategic missiles, we can talk about a certain balance of power between the main shareholders - Russia and the United States. For a while, everyone who is worried can calm down.
It's a different matter with shorter- and medium-range missiles. In accordance with the Washington Treaty of 1987, Mikhail Gorbachev destroyed an entire class of weapons in the Soviet Union - collectively the Oka, Pioneer, RK-55, R-12, R-14 and Temp-S systems. Moreover, “Oka”, as is known, was not a short-range missile. The product fell 500 km short of the contractually required range of 50 km. It should be noted that not only Europe exhaled after signing the ban, but also Mikhail Gorbachev.
Pershing II
It's no joke, in West Germany, since the late 70s, the Americans had deployed a whole cascade of short-range Pershing I missiles, and later medium-range Pershing II missiles. The ballistic missiles had a range of 2,5 kilometers and reached Moscow in just 5-7 minutes. Each warhead carried up to 80 kilotons of TNT equivalent and left no chance for the top military-political leadership of the USSR. There was a clear imbalance. The Americans could deliver a decapitating blow to the Soviet Union, but Moscow could not strike Washington with missiles. Except, of course, launching a swarm of ICBMs and when "the whole world turns to dust." Taking advantage of this, the Americans were able to put pressure on Gorbachev and agreed to destroy half as many medium- and short-range missiles on their side. Let us recall that we are talking about ground-based ballistic and cruise missiles. With regard to the missiles of the Navy and aviation There are no restrictions on basing. Ground-based missile systems are much more difficult to track, they are cheaper, and when they operate with products with a range of 500 to 5500 kilometers, it becomes critically dangerous. But it's not all that bad. In the Soviet Union in the 70s, the most secret and therefore myth-shrouded system "Perimeter" was put into operation. In the West, it was epically nicknamed "Dead Hand". Initially, the system was intended to mitigate the threat of destruction of communication systems between the nodes of the Strategic Missile Forces at the time of a nuclear strike. Along with the electronic warfare developing in the 60-70s, this posed a serious threat to a retaliatory strike against America. There are rumors about a certain "Doomsday machine" capable of analyzing what is happening on the territory of the Soviet Union and, if necessary, delivering a retaliatory strike with available forces without human participation. Science fiction writers write about a bunch of sensors sending data on radiation levels, EMP, seismic activity and human activity to some autonomous “brain center”. In application to shorter and medium-range missiles, “Perimeter” can provide retaliation in case of destruction of decision-making centers. Without going into details, it can be assumed that a retaliatory strike of ICBMs will cover not only the launch country, but also the United States. And this should be taken into account by those who intend to pull up medium and shorter-range missiles to the Russian borders for the second time.
Europe at gunpoint
Just like 45 years ago, the Americans announced the deployment of missiles in Europe. The same ones who were destroyed along with Gorbachev in 1987-1990. The United States officially withdrew from the Washington Treaty in 2019, and Donald Trump did so. This is about the question of some kind of complimentary behavior of the ex-president to our country. He is a Russophobe and a militarist, just like Biden. Side view only. In accordance with the plans of the United States, by 2026, intermediate- and shorter-range missiles should appear in Germany. Here it is necessary to make a remark and clarify for all doubters. The reason for this step on the part of Washington was not the North Military District, as many believe, but the purposeful policy of the US military-political leadership. Six years ago, the Americans came up with a reason - the 9M729 cruise missile from the Iskander complex can fly not 450 km, but 2000 km at once. The reason is very beautiful and unverifiable. The White House slammed the door and unilaterally withdrew from the treaty game. There is an opinion that this happened not even because of Russia, but because of the increase in the number of medium-range ground-based missiles by China, India, Pakistan and North Korea. These guys are not America's allies at all.
The Americans began work on new, previously banned missiles long before Russia was accused. Some systems required purely symbolic modernization - we are talking about Tomahawk ground-based cruise missiles. By the way, the Mk41 launch containers of the missile defense position area in Poland and Romania have long been able to operate with these products. This has been pointed out more than once by the Russian leadership. But now everything is official. The Tomahawk can be equipped with a nuclear warhead and has a range of 1800 km from Germany to Moscow. Conventionally, this weapon can be called a mid-range missile from those planned for deployment. The SM-740 Block IB multifunctional missile operates at distances of up to 6 km; formally it belongs to the class of anti-missile missiles from missile defense systems, but this model is designed to work against ships. This means that it will be quite useful for ground targets. The entire Kaliningrad region and a good half of Belarus are in the affected area of the SM-6 Block IB launchers in Germany. The real queen of the NATO missile menagerie in Europe will be the hypersonic LRHW of the Dark Eagle complex, “which has a significantly greater range than current ground-based firepower in Europe" This product is currently in trial operation, but there is no doubt that it will soon be put into service. The LRHW will reach operational readiness next year. The missiles will settle in Germany, and we can confidently call them the reincarnation of Hitler’s “Ural bomber”. With a range of 2800 km, the missiles will barely reach Yekaterinburg and Chelyabinsk.
Hypersonic LRHW
The US Army's strike assets in the segment under study do not end there. The arsenal includes the PrSM operational-tactical complex with a range of 500 kilometers or more. It has long been integrated into the infamous HIMARS and M270 systems. Unless they are supplied to Zelensky. For now, at least. These products could appear in Europe tomorrow. If they haven’t already appeared, it’s very difficult to distinguish platforms with PrSM from “conventional” ones within 100 steps.
The above systems will become elements of the concept of a multi-domain task force or MDTF (Multi-Domain Task Force), which has been actively developed in recent years. The Americans hope that the MDTF will be an effective means of breaking through the no-access zone. When applied to Russia, this zone becomes the entire western borderland and the strategic depth of defense. Let us especially emphasize that the United States, with its missile systems in Europe, intends to soften not even the operational depth of Russia’s defense, but the strategic one. And the conflict in Ukraine contributes a lot to this.
PrSM is another threat from the European theater of operations. The missile range is more than 500 km
The Americans have now developed a well-developed scheme for striking deep into Russian territory. With the help of the Ukrainians and their own satellite group, they were able to create a fairly effective mechanism for destroying fuel and energy complex facilities. The algorithms for the operation of the systems are being studied and summarized Defense Russian Army, as well as the reaction of the country's top military-political leadership.
How will Russia respond? First of all, it is worth remembering the recent words of Vladimir Putin at a press conference in Astana:
“We are ready to start production. We have already, in principle, given the corresponding instructions to industry. Regarding deployment, I said that we are declaring a moratorium on the possible future deployment of our respective systems until these missile systems appear in some region of the world. If complexes, medium- and shorter-range missiles of American production appear somewhere, then we reserve the right to act in a mirror manner.”
At first glance, Russia cannot respond to America in a completely mirror way. There is simply nowhere around the United States to place ground-based systems with missiles with a range of 500 to 5500 km. Indeed, there is nowhere, if you do not take into account South America, more precisely, Venezuela. From here to the beaches of Miami is a little more than 2000 km. Which is quite achievable for promising domestic missiles. Such conclusions, of course, are purely theoretical - few people in South America would agree to an adventure with Russian missiles. But nothing can be ruled out.
In relation to Europe, Russia will easily and naturally respond symmetrically. Several land-based Kalibr missile batteries in the Kaliningrad region, coupled with shorter- and medium-range ballistic missiles currently being developed, will turn the Old World into a shoot-through area.
As a result, we see the American “attempt No. 2”. Reagan managed to put the squeeze on the Soviet leadership in 1987 - maybe now they will slip through to the second Washington Treaty. The logic is something like this. No one, most likely, is thinking about the actual use of missiles. The main mistake of Pentagon analysts is one thing: it is not Mikhail Sergeevich in the Kremlin now.
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