Modernization of the Polish Armed Forces
Polish soldiers at a gala event
Poland is seeking to significantly increase and modernize its armed forces. To this end, several large-scale programs in the field of military development are now being implemented and other measures are being taken. It is expected that the main results of these programs will be achieved in the medium and long term - by the middle of the next decade.
As before, plans to expand and strengthen the army are justified by theses about the Russian threat and the need to protect Europe.
Strength issues
To increase defense capability, the Polish leadership intends to increase the number of armed forces. It is expected that this will allow the creation of new formations and units, as well as the protection of new directions.
The growth of the army has already begun, but it will take about 10 more years to implement all plans. According to The Military Balance 2024, at the end of last year just over 100 thousand people served in the Polish armed forces. Another 14,3 thousand people were employed in security and paramilitary structures, and the reserve called upon to assume the functions of territorial defense amounted to 32,5 thousand people. Thus, the total number of armed forces, security forces and reserves at the moment does not exceed 140-145 thousand people.
The approved military construction program provides for an increase in the number of armed forces to 300 thousand people by 2035. This number will include not only military personnel, but also law enforcement officers. The armed forces are planned to increase to 180 thousand people, and the reserve - to 50 thousand people. It is expected that another 50 thousand places will be filled with military personnel of annual service - the proposed similarity to conscription.
A batch of South Korean-made K9 self-propelled guns in a Polish port, December 2022.
Since 2010, the Polish army has been fully staffed by professional military personnel. The recruitment of contract soldiers has its limitations, but they are successfully overcome. Thanks to the measures taken, the influx of volunteers covers the current needs of the armed forces and allows them to gradually increase their numbers. In this case, various successes are achieved.
According to the Polish Ministry of Defense, in 2022 it was possible to attract more than 13 contract soldiers, which was an all-time record. history existence of a professional army. In 2023, performance remained strong, but failed to surpass the previous year's results. The military department recently reported that it had met its recruiting target for the current year, although specific numbers were not provided. It is quite possible that by the end of 2024 a new record will be recorded.
In general, there has been an increase in the population's interest in military service. This is primarily due to the improvement of conditions in the army, an increase in pay, the introduction of new benefits and social programs, etc. Propaganda based on theses about the Russian threat and the need to defend Europe is also important. We should not forget about the economic difficulties of European countries, which also affect Poland. In such conditions, a contract and the army may not be the worst choice for some of the population.
New connections
Most likely, most of the recruits will be sent to strengthen the ground forces. At the moment, more than 71 thousand people serve in this branch of the military, and their number will grow. According to preliminary plans, the growth could be from 40 to 50 percent.
Delivery of the M142 MLRS to Poland, May 2023.
This increase in performance will be used to improve the structure of the army. Currently, the ground forces have four combined arms divisions, which include various brigades and regiments. By 2035, it is planned to create two more divisions. They are expected to serve in the eastern part of the country, including the border with Belarus.
It is also planned to develop territorial defense. Its structure will be changed in accordance with new opportunities and needs in the field of national security. New connections are expected to emerge that will be responsible for protecting the most important areas.
In the process of rearmament
Currently, major rearmament programs are being implemented or planned for all major types of armed forces and branches of the armed forces. The main goal of these programs is to update existing military equipment, which is often outdated both morally and physically. In addition, newly formed units will be equipped with new purchases.
Contracts have already been concluded with suppliers, both local and foreign. Some deliveries have already begun, while others are expected in the future.
Particular attention is paid to tank park. In recent years, Poland has purchased more than 350 M1 Abrams tanks of various modifications from the United States. An agreement has also been concluded for the supply and organization of joint production of 2 South Korean K1000 main battle tanks.
Developing missile troops and artillery. Krab self-propelled artillery units are being built locally, and about 680 South Korean K9s have been ordered. In addition, M142 multiple launch rocket systems have been acquired, with more deliveries planned. Nearly 240 K239 multiple launch rocket systems have been ordered from South Korea.
The first South Korean KLTV armored cars for Poland, April 2024
The development of the air force is planned. A contract has already been signed for the supply of 32 American F-35 fighters, and in the future they will be supplemented by 48 Korean-made FA-50 aircraft. Various helicopters are also being purchased for transportation and other purposes.
Finally, the problem of outdated air defense is being solved. A contract has been signed for the delivery of several batteries of American-made Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems. In addition, other types of systems will be delivered for the military Defense.
Goals and challenges
Poland plans to carry out the most extensive modernization of its armed forces in recent history. The country intends to significantly increase the number of all types of armed forces and combat arms, create new units and formations, as well as update the fleet of equipment and weapons of all main classes.
These programs have been launched in recent years and will continue until the middle of the next decade. The reasons for such reforms are quite clear. Despite the efforts of past decades, the Polish army does not excel in terms of quantity and quality. For example, the well-known Global Firepower rating puts it in 21st place in the world or 8th in Europe (excluding Russia).
The Polish leadership is not satisfied with this state of affairs, and it has long been thinking about big changes. It is quite clear what results Poland is counting on. As a result of current programs, the Polish army will become larger and stronger. In addition, the income and standard of living of personnel will improve, and Polish industry will earn money on new orders and receive technology from foreign partners.
FA-50GF fighter of the first batch, June 2023
However, implementing all the plans will be, to say the least, difficult. The main problem in this context is finance. All proposed measures for the development of the army are associated with increased costs.
For example, to increase pay or increase the number of personnel, the corresponding items of the military budget will have to be revised. The planned growth rates and volumes indicate the need for significant investment.
Re-equipment is no less expensive. Thus, the total cost of two contracts for the supply of 360 Abrams tanks, as well as auxiliary equipment and related materials, exceeded $6,1 billion. Other procurement and rearmament programs are also not cheap.
Procurement costs should be compared with Poland's military expenditures. Last year, the Department of Defense budget was equivalent to $23,5 billion, and in 2024 it was increased to $36,6 billion. However, whether it will be possible to take into account procurement costs and increased salaries of military personnel in these budgets is a big question. It is quite possible that the current negative trends in the European economy will force Poland to reconsider its plans towards cutting costs and saving.
Plans and reality
Thus, under the pretext of concern for pan-European security and the fight against Russophobia, Poland began a large-scale reform and modernization of its armed forces. It is planned to increase their number, improve their structure and rearmament. Due to the complexity of this program, its implementation is planned for the next decade and will only be fully completed by 2035.
The first steps in this direction have already been taken, and the Polish leadership is optimistic about the future. However, there are a number of objective factors that may interfere with the implementation of plans. In addition, new negative phenomena are possible that will further worsen the situation. How justified the current optimism will be will become clear later as events develop.
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