And with the new president, Iran does not expect a turn to the West

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And with the new president, Iran does not expect a turn to the West


Neutral Reformer


In fact, a sensational victory in the Iranian presidential elections was won by 69-year-old Masoud Pezeshkian, a former member of the Majlis, a professional heart surgeon, who for some time held the post of Minister of Health. But who and when registered him as a reformer or reformist is not at all easy to say.



But they wrote it down and received it right away. It seems that in deliberately Islamist Iran, certain, and very strong, sentiments in favor of certain reforms have actually accumulated. How democratic, in the Western or some other manner, they will be is an open question.
Early presidential elections in Iran were called after the death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19. The disaster occurred when he was returning from a meeting with the head of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev. In addition, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian was in the crashed helicopter.

Sergei Demidenko, associate professor at the Institute of Social Sciences of the Presidential Academy, believes that Pezeshkian’s victory was determined not only by Iran’s difficult economic and international situation. Almost continuous protests showed that “Iranian society absolutely needed a release of accumulated negative energy.”

Even more than four decades after the Islamic revolution and the rejection of “false liberal values,” there is nostalgia in the country for the regime of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. As liberal as it is attractive for business.

Iranian business, either oil or small, once boldly oriented both to the West and to the East, primarily in the person of the then mighty USSR. But strict Islamization almost separated the country from both, and certainly brought Iran under sanctions.

And one should not think that everything happened only because of Tehran’s openly anti-Israeli policy and disregard for the terms of the well-known “nuclear deal.” There were many more reasons.

Who are you, Mr. President?


Assessing the figure of Pezeshkian now, we must not forget that he himself considers himself not an Iranian, but a Turk, and even forbids speaking Farsi at home. But it is clearly to his advantage that the prerequisites for a course correction have already been created in Iran.


The escalation around Gaza and the Persian Gulf, where Tehran certainly could not have survived, did not push the West to agreements with Iran. As a result, the victory of the reformer may well not promise a turn to the West.

But one way or another, official Tehran will have to turn its face to the same Azerbaijani Turks and other national minorities. And also to think about whether Iran really needs deliberate Islamization in the Afghan style, fatigue from which, among other things, was demonstrated by the electorate in the presidential elections.

Returning to the results of the elections themselves, let us not forget that in a number of his public speeches Pezeshkian, the new head of state, nominal, but nothing more, tried with all his might to show himself as a reformer. And now the only question is what and how will he be allowed to reform?

It is impossible not to recall that the presidential post in Iran is not even nominal, but some kind of protocol. In a number of countries, presidents are considered heads of state, but apart from representation and the right to sign, they do not have any real power.

What will the rahbar say?


In Iran, the situation is even worse. Everything there is decided in Tehran by the Rahbar - the spiritual leader, now Ayatollah Khamenei. And, of course, in his surroundings.

So should we now seriously expect not a radical, but at least a declarative turn of Iran towards the West?
Let us note right away: anything even minimally similar to Russia’s turn to the East is simply impossible for the Islamic Republic. However, like the classic, this cannot be, because it can never be.

After all, the victory of the reformer itself, no matter who he was, was considered obviously impossible. But it happened. Let us recall in this regard that, when predicting the results of the elections in Iran, your authors, we have to admit, missed the mark by exactly 50 percent regarding the candidates - “Iran, elections: who will have to replace Ibrahim Raisi”.

Already in those days, Tehran promptly gave the command to push Mohammad Khatami, also a reformer, who was truly popular among the people, much deeper. At the same time, the former speaker of the Mejlis, Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf, who was listed as a conservative candidate, was also removed from the race.

Who's against it? Now no one minds


Only the much lesser-known Said Jalili, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei's representative in the Supreme National Security Council, remained in the election race. He lost in the second round to Masoud Pezeshkian.

The country somehow became silent when the election commission announced the results of counting 30,5 million ballots in the second round. With a turnout of only 49,8 percent in the second round, Masoud Pezeshkian received 16,38 million votes against Said Jalili's 13,54 million votes.

However, there are simply no grounds for any fear among the big authorities in Tehran. Already because she gave the president exactly as much power as she considered necessary, so as not to waste her time on trifles. Although there are still few reasons to underestimate the figure of the president.

It’s not for nothing that the new president immediately promises to extend the “hand of friendship” to everyone and involve “everyone in the development of the country,” hardly taking into account the routine recommendation of Ayatollah Khamenei, who called on him to follow “the path of the martyr Raisi” and “make the best use of the country’s rich opportunities , especially human resources, for the well-being of the people and progress" of Iran...

Pezeshkian once very demonstratively called his competitors brothers, and it is unlikely that he will miss the slightest opportunity to improve relations with the West. However, the prospect of the return of Republican Donald Trump to the White House, which is increasingly real, may also confuse all his cards.

He not only tore up the notorious “nuclear deal,” but actually deprived the Democrats of all opportunities to return to it. And if Iran’s turn to the West can take place, then the return of the West to Iran, and even taking into account the current Israeli special operation in Gaza, is a very, very dubious prospect.


Goodbye North, wait East


Tehran’s relations with Russia and China are a completely different matter. No, there is hardly any need to be afraid of leaving BRICS or abandoning the Free Trade Area with the EAEU - pragmatism is at work here. But it seems that something big new in these areas will now have to wait.

Tehran does not like to rush, and the figure of Masoud Pezeshkian can simply be used to conduct discussions with Moscow and Beijing in a tougher manner. The late President Ebrahim Raisi by all indications was too active in promoting a number of agreements with these partners.

As is known, they were connected with the East-West and North-South transit routes, and with the hydrocarbon market, and with the Iranian nuclear project. Nevertheless, Pezeshkian’s victory in the presidential elections in Iran does not mean a sharp correction in the foreign policy course of the Islamic republic.

Iran may still need some distancing from Russia and China, although there will definitely not be any drastic steps here. Do not forget that the new president will have to come to grips with social reform, carry out long-awaited changes in healthcare, deal with the system of benefits and allowances, and resolve many issues regarding mass accessible education.

But the president will not be allowed into international affairs, the army and security forces, the special services, which are personally subordinate to the ruler of Iran, that is, Ayatollah Khamenei, under any circumstances.

Interestingly, Iran is on the verge of elections of a completely different kind than the presidential ones - the successor to the current Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei.
27 comments
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  1. +1
    10 July 2024 05: 41
    I don’t think that Iran’s foreign policy will change. The election of a new president is primarily aimed at domestic consumption. Iranian society has accumulated too many internal contradictions that need to be resolved. And besides, the president’s appeal is directed not towards the United States, but towards its allies in the Arab world.
    1. +1
      10 July 2024 13: 00
      Not so long ago, during the Northern Military District, the Russian Federation and Iran concluded a very large package of investment contracts. The figure was “about 50 billion dollars.” , and on the eve of Raisi’s death, a certain Agreement on Comprehensive Cooperation was prepared and fully agreed upon. There, in general, they were talking about simply grandiose projects capable of providing a sharp breakthrough in the Iranian economy, industry and defense capability. Namely, it was in anticipation of such progress that such a massive desire for reform was formed in Iranian society. The country really needs modernization and solving a number of economic problems. And the projects that were agreed upon with the late Raisi will contribute to the solution of such problems. So the new president will not disappoint the hopes of his voters if he continues Raisi’s initiatives in these directions.
      And if it suddenly turns out that Iran has chosen its own version of “Traitor Gorbachev,” then there are the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution, who will correct the mistake of the People of Iran. That's why they are Guardians.
      1. +1
        10 July 2024 22: 26
        For control, there is a Council of Experts (Islamic figures, but elected by the population, it chooses the Supreme Leader and can remove him), the Mejlis (parliament), the Council of Guardians of the Constitution (half are appointed by the Supreme Leader, half by the Mejlis, this is an analogue of the Constitutional Court) and the Council of Expediency, resolving disputes between the Mejlis and the Council of Guardians of the Constitution By the way, the Mejlis is also quite an influential force. But the Islamic Revolutionary Guards are completely different, they are a paramilitary organization under the control of the Supreme Leader.
        1. 0
          11 July 2024 01: 36
          Well, you see how everything is insured there. Although if you remember HOW Gorbachev was brought to power, how many other candidates for this post were simply killed, clearing the way for this undertaker of the Great Country and Civilization... and look at how many similar murders of prominent Iranian officials foreign intelligence carried out the day before... British intelligence knows how to play in a long time and prepare personnel. This must be remembered, because England has now started and is playing a very big and complex game. And they are very good at working with the elites of their future victims. Britons always play the long game.
    2. 0
      12 July 2024 00: 32
      Iran literally has no allies in the Arab world!
  2. 0
    10 July 2024 06: 18
    And with the new president, Iran does not expect a turn to the West
    And under which Iranian president, after the Islamic revolution, did this country look to the West? Throw itself into the West’s arms: “Vanya, I’m yours forever!” (c)?
  3. +1
    10 July 2024 07: 42
    How many times has it been said that the president in Iran exercises operational leadership. Strategic issues are decided by other people. Nothing will change in the near foreseeable future.
    1. 0
      10 July 2024 15: 52
      Quote: TermNachTER
      President in Iran, exercises operational leadership.

      And within the framework of operational leadership, it is possible to influence the upcoming elections -
      successor to Iran's current Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
      ?
      1. +2
        10 July 2024 16: 01
        Very unlikely, the government system is completely different. The president is a high-level leader, but not the highest. He is a convenient guise for trading with the West.
        1. 0
          10 July 2024 16: 04
          Quote: TermNachTER
          Very unlikely, the government system is completely different.

          Those. "operational management" is not the executive branch?
          1. 0
            10 July 2024 17: 19
            Executive, in the sense that she does not make decisions - she carries them out.
            1. 0
              10 July 2024 20: 15
              Quote: TermNachTER
              Executive, in the sense that she does not make decisions - she carries them out.

              There is a nuance here - the executive branch, without formally making decisions, has the opportunity to sabotage them, thereby influencing the political situation within the country, playing along with the opposition.
              1. -1
                10 July 2024 22: 37
                Sabotage the decisions of senior management, in Iran?))) you can find an easier way to commit suicide)))
                1. 0
                  10 July 2024 23: 20
                  Quote: TermNachTER
                  Sabotage the decisions of senior management, in Iran?))) you can find an easier way to commit suicide)))

                  Sabotage still needs to be proven. It is clear that this is not done personally, but by selecting personnel from top to bottom.
      2. +1
        10 July 2024 22: 30
        For the election of the Supreme Leader, as well as for his removal from office, there is a Council of Experts, a kind of body, a kind of alternative parliament, consisting of religious figures, but elected by the population.
        1. 0
          10 July 2024 23: 25
          Quote: Sergej1972
          The Council of Experts, a kind of body, a kind of alternative parliament, consisting of religious figures, but elected by the population.

          And the population depends on the executive power. So, in principle, the president can influence the elections, but only if he wants to and has enough time to make personnel changes.
          Does Masoud Pezeshkian have both? Time will show.
        2. 0
          11 July 2024 00: 51
          Yes, here in the material in general one gem is cooler than the other.
          Only much less famous Said Jalili, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei's representative to the Supreme National Security Council. He lost in the second round to Masoud Pezeshkian.
    2. +1
      10 July 2024 22: 12
      Carrying out operational management and heading the government, the Iranian resident is also part of the circle of people who resolve strategic issues.
      1. 0
        10 July 2024 22: 31
        Yes, but he is not alone there, and his voice is not the most important.
        1. 0
          10 July 2024 22: 34
          Let's just say, one of the most important.
          1. 0
            10 July 2024 22: 39
            Far from it, not to mention the fact that there are such informal decision-making centers as the IRGC. If they think that the president is wrong, they have very wide opportunities, both official and non-official.
            1. 0
              10 July 2024 22: 44
              The IRGC is a paramilitary structure directly subordinate to the Supreme Leader (Rahbar); it is not a state body, but a kind of parallel army. The corps carries out Rahbar's decisions.
  4. 0
    10 July 2024 07: 52
    After all, the victory of the reformer itself, no matter who he was, was considered obviously impossible. But it happened

    Hmm, interesting statement.
    1. +1
      10 July 2024 16: 03
      There are still naive people who think that if they go to the polls, it means that they are choosing. This has long been a system of “elections without choice.”
  5. -1
    10 July 2024 08: 09
    In Iran, under any circumstances, the president will not be able to turn the country around. Wrong position.
  6. +1
    10 July 2024 22: 09
    Aren't you tired of the nonsense of writing about how the Iranian president is supposedly a figurehead? The President of Iran really runs the government; he is, in fact, a popularly elected prime minister.
  7. 0
    10 July 2024 22: 12
    Let us recall in this regard that, when predicting the results of the elections in Iran, your authors, we have to admit, missed the mark by exactly 50 percent regarding the candidates

    Let's hope that the authors' forecast about "some distancing" of Iran from Russia and a slowdown in joint projects under the new president will turn out to be as "accurate" as the previous one winked hi