An operation that failed before it even started. Playing on nerves instead of provocation on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border

An operation that failed before it even started. Playing on nerves instead of provocation on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border

With what pleasure I watched the parade that was held on the Independence Day of Belarus. Unlike other former republics of the USSR, Belarusians tied this holiday to a specific event of their stories — The day of the liberation of Minsk from the Nazi invaders. That’s why both a military parade and a civilian demonstration look quite logical. “We won the war and we win in labor.”

I saw the faces of soldiers and officers, the faces of BelAZ workers and engineers, the faces of Belarusian athletes, students, young people in general, the faces of ordinary townspeople. And on all these faces one could read a calm confidence in themselves, in their country, in their future. I saw a beautiful city and happy people.

But today is about something else. Neighbors from the south, neighbors from the west and northwest saw exactly the same thing. Those who always talked about the unfortunate Belarusians who do not even have basic rights and freedoms. And the holiday showed that these same “disenfranchised Belarusians” live better than their neighbors. They live freer, richer, calmer, if you like.

It is clear that even without knowing the program of the holiday, I understood that for Kyiv this holiday of neighbors would be like a dagger in... the place below the back. So many losses, so much suffering, so many disappointments - and all in vain? An ordinary person does not look at the life of the political or economic elite, he looks at the life of the same ordinary people. Happy Belarusians and, probably, relatively happy Ukrainians.

It is clear that in Kyiv they have long come up with an excuse for their illiteracy in terms of state building and the state economy. The Russians are to blame, the war is to blame. Moreover, this idea was hammered into the heads of Ukrainians for so long that even the “teachers” themselves believed in it. If there is a war, there will be no economy. They believed so much that they didn’t even think about the answer to the question “What about the Russian economy?”

Hence, a completely logical conclusion. In order to “establish a small group under the door” of Belarusians, it is enough to ensure that they too have a war. Quite in the style of Kyiv. Not to catch up and surpass your neighbors in terms of living standards, but to lower their level below yours...

For a normal person, the logic is, of course, so-so, but for Ukraine it is quite relevant. Zelensky understands perfectly well that President Alexander Lukashenko, with his celebration, hit the bull’s eye right at the very idea of ​​Ukrainization, at the very essence of Ukrainianness as a state ideology. The country, which initially was not even close economically, has today become the embodiment of the Ukrainian dream...

It is clear that Kyiv has no guts to start serious military operations on the border with Belarus, but playing on one’s nerves is quite in Zelensky’s style. Moreover, his desire is very supported by friends in the Baltic countries and Poland.

I get the impression that together, Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic countries decided to deceive each other. Like a pack of mongrels. They bark at a lonely pit bull in a crowd, but they understand that the first one to attack him will remain at least disabled. So they hope that someone else will rush in first, and not them. And it’s best if the Belarusians “break their nerve.”

Even nerves of iron are not rubber

“Playing on each other’s nerves” is a fairly old pastime of border guards on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border. Do not think that it appeared only after the start of the SVO in 2022. This “game” began much earlier, but it really became open in 2022. But in 2022 and even 2023 they played sluggishly. More for show. Unlike ordinary people, border guards know the facts very well and do not try to take risks.

But then 2024 came. Probably everyone knows about what is happening in Ukraine. And in Belarus... 80 years since the liberation of Minsk. I already wrote above that Independence Day, which simply because of the “roundness” of the date, will be celebrated especially loudly. So the “Belarusians” from the RDK received the task of organizing a loud provocation, that is, that same “pile of crap under the neighbor’s door.”

The operation was developed according to the same scheme that was used by the “Russians” from the RDK (reserved in the Russian Federation). It is enough to break through the border in one place, capture some regional center and announce the creation of your own government there. If President Lukashenko does not react immediately, which is quite possible during the celebration, recognize the new republic and send in troops. Thus, Belarus will be involved in the war!..

The operation began in early June. It is clear that the Belarusian border service quickly received information about the preparation of a provocation. The opposing party was warned about this. Remember the statement of the State Border Committee of Belarus dated June 20:

“The Border Service of the Republic of Belarus on the border with Ukraine is serving in an enhanced mode and, together with the Ministry of Defense, is responding to changes in the situation by increasing the density of covering the state border, including through the capabilities of maneuver groups equipped with modern weapons and military equipment in the southern direction. Additional measures are being taken to investigate and monitor the state of the state border regime.”

This statement did not come out of nowhere. It appeared after the State Border Committee of Belarus already had reliable information about the concentration of enemy forces in the Zhitomir direction. Elite fighters of the Ukrainian Special Forces, soldiers of the RDK (exported in the Russian Federation) and additional forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces arrived there. In addition, Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, Gepard self-propelled guns, M777 howitzers and HIMARS MLRS were also deployed there.

In Kyiv, at the Main Intelligence Directorate, they understood the warning quite correctly, but they could not cancel the operation. The owners (most likely) demanded that the holiday in Minsk be disrupted. The operation continued, but with a significant reinforcement of the Belarusian border guards. Let me remind you again, on June 27, a Ukrainian drone was planted by border guards.

It seems like a meaningless fact. But if you consider that he climbed into the territory of Belarus as much as... 150 meters, then the degree of strengthening of the border will become clear... Or another “insignificant fact.” The next day, border guards “accidentally found” a Ukrainian cache of explosives.

Well, the Belarusian artillerymen finally cooled the ardor of the Ukrainian saboteurs. More precisely, the Polonaise MLRS division, which appeared on June 28 right where the breakthrough was planned. Weapon serious and quite deadly. Substituting “special” fighters for missiles is an unforgivable waste.

It seems to me that this was the reason for postponing the operation. Precisely a transfer, not a cancellation. After all, no one has canceled the task of dragging Belarus into the war. And Kyiv has fewer and fewer “stoppers”. The Russians are pressing in the east and there is no way to stop them.

Units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are losing their combat effectiveness, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces cannot change this. So “the barn burned down, the house burned down”... Replacing trained and fired fighters destroyed at the LBS with captured “mobilized” ones simply adds “meat to the mince”, but does not affect the combat effectiveness of the brigades. This elementary truth is understood by everyone who is on the LBS.

Even those 18 brigades that Zelensky spoke about recently, “who are trained, but do not have weapons and therefore cannot be brought into battle“, this is just a deception of one’s own people. Not the military of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but the people. The Armed Forces of Ukraine soldiers clearly see the bleeding brigades at the front, the understaffing of the “old brigades” even in the rear, and understand that the new brigades are a pure bluff. They do not carry any serious military force.

Very indicative in this regard are videos of the landing of new units arriving in the defense areas of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from infantry fighting vehicles or armored personnel carriers. This is not an unloading, this is a throwing out. Throw away your property and run away from the car. And God forbid you sit somewhere in front, and you will have to be the last to land. This is an almost 100% guarantee of getting hit drone or a shell...

They always play on nerves without rules

So, the situation on the border between Ukraine and Belarus remains quite complicated. Both sides are well aware that provocations are possible at any moment. I don’t believe that President Lukashenko can commit a provocation. Alexander Grigorievich will definitely not do such stupidity. But the Ukrainian Special Forces may well play for the Belarusians...

A question arises for the power steering. Why such difficulties when you can simply break into some border village, take a selfie, hold it for a couple of hours and run back? There will be noise, the press and bloggers will do the rest. Why all these “hidden movements” of personnel and weapons?

The answer lies in the recent past. When Kyiv seriously believed that the Russians would advance from the territory of Belarus. It was at that time that the Zhitomir direction became one of the most likely directions of attack. And then, last year, the Ukrainian Armed Forces stopped the possibility of such an offensive.

Let me remind you that at that time all the bridges were blown up and dense minefields were laid along the entire border line. In fact, the Ukrainian Armed Forces created not a fortified area, but a fortified zone. Before the operation to disrupt the holiday, according to unconfirmed reports, several passes were made in the minefields, but now the mines are returning.

So we should expect another “game of nerves”. Well, and minor provocations, like a “random” projectile or drone on the territory of Belarus. The confrontation returns to the “let them be afraid” phase. Already quite familiar to both sides.

Who benefits from this and who loses? If you look at it globally, ordinary people win. War is grief, death and destruction of the way of life of many people. So the gain is quite significant.

And who loses? Both sides too. Belarus is forced to keep part of its armed forces in constant readiness, which is quite difficult for military personnel. Ukraine is forced to keep its formations in border areas. And this is in conditions of a serious shortage of personnel in the area where the military training is taking place.

Thus, the nervous situation at the border is disadvantageous for both sides. But now the main thing is completely different. Both sides do this simply because they do not believe each other's statements. So the “game of nerves” will continue. A game without rules, without any restrictions... The border guards will continue to have a lot of work...
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  1. +26
    8 July 2024 05: 15
    I can only be happy for the Belarusians...they managed to go painlessly through all the troubles that our country is going through...stupid reforms, coup attempts, war, migrants and other delights of our time.
    Lukashenko, despite all his quirks, does the most important thing for his people and country, and does not allow Ukraine to slide to the bottom in which it finds itself.
    Still, the personality of the head of state is of enormous importance for the well-being of his citizens.
    1. Des
      8 July 2024 07: 40
      Quote: Lech from Android.
      they managed to get through all the troubles our country is going through painlessly...
      Perhaps this is still ahead of them, alas. Lukashenko, like everyone else, is not eternal.
    2. +1
      9 July 2024 01: 43
      By the way, no matter how many Belarusians I have met, everyone is always dissatisfied. And he’s slimmer and the salaries are low and in general...
      1. 0
        10 July 2024 22: 16
        By the way, yes - I explained that placement and employment for students is good, but they muttered that this is very bad....
  2. +11
    8 July 2024 05: 24
    Why does Ukraine need a second front from Belarus? For some reason, we always believe that the enemy is worse than ourselves winked
    1. +4
      8 July 2024 07: 09
      They don’t need a second front, they need a response from the Old Man, which NATO will declare disproportionate and NATO’s involvement in the conflict.
      1. +4
        8 July 2024 07: 14
        Why on earth? Ukraine is a member of NATO? And NATO will not get involved in an open conflict, they are already skimming all the “scum”
        1. +2
          8 July 2024 07: 18
          Have you read about the term “escalation”? I repeat: this is their hope. They are losing, they know it, and they are trying to involve additional players in the conflict.
          1. 0
            10 July 2024 22: 17
            Quote: Ezekiel 25-17
            Have you read about the term “escalation”? I repeat: this is their hope. They are losing, they know it, and they are trying to involve additional players in the conflict.
            - RB will be involved. And then the Russian Armed Forces will also come there.
            And they will have to abandon their positions in Donbass and pull the Ukrainian Armed Forces to the center of the country.
            This will help them a lot in preserving the country 404
      2. +1
        8 July 2024 07: 34
        It is doubtful that NATO “dreams” of getting into the conflict. Why do they need this? Ukraine does it for them. Although provocations are possible at the border, but no more.
        1. +3
          8 July 2024 09: 48
          There is a “list of sympathizers” in the article. As always, they want to snatch something with someone else’s hands, and the serfs (Ukraine) are happy to suffer for the master, maybe he will appreciate it.
  3. +12
    8 July 2024 05: 30
    Lukashenko’s report and the military parade itself showed that Belarus is not going to start a war. But it is ready to give a worthy response to any enemy. The types of weapons used at the Parade were mainly defensive, but literally in all directions. The very calm discussion of all this speaks of the efficiency of the Belarusian authorities.
    1. +12
      8 July 2024 12: 02
      “The country, which initially was not even close economically, today has become the embodiment of the Ukrainian dream...” What dream?? Propagandist Staver? What dream do those who now live on foreign land have? They have different dreams. Starting from lace panties, “what for?”, etc.. Their dreams are in the West, not in Belarus. But I, for example (and not only me) dream of living in a state like today’s Belarus.. With a dynamic economy, order, without hateful migrants. I believe this is the dream of tens of millions of people in Russia. “You’ve got the wrong address, you’ve got it wrong...Staver.”..
      1. 0
        10 July 2024 04: 07
        Propaganda (Latin propaganda literally - “to be spread (belief)”, from Latin propago - “I spread”) - in modern political discourse is understood as the open dissemination of views, facts, arguments and other information with the aim of shaping public opinion or other purposes, persecuted by propagandists. It should not be confused with the concept of Manipulation of Mass Consciousness.

        Source: Wikipedia
        PROPAGA'NDA, s, plural. no, w. [latin. propaganda - lit. something that should be disseminated]. Distribution of some ideas, teachings, knowledge through detailed and in-depth familiarization.
        Source: “Explanatory Dictionary of the Russian Language” edited by D. N. Ushakov (1935-1940); (electronic version): Fundamental electronic library
        1. +1
          10 July 2024 06: 01
          Okay, then you are a manipulator. You admitted it yourself. Because you want to introduce something that doesn’t really exist Yes
      2. 0
        10 July 2024 22: 20
        Quote from: dmi.pris1
        But I, for example (and not only me) dream of living in a state like today’s Belarus... With a dynamic economy, order, without hateful migrants. I believe this is the dream of tens of millions of people in Russia.

        The joke is that Belarusians come to work with us. And they are always dissatisfied with their country...
        I don't know how to explain this - but it's a fact
  4. -6
    8 July 2024 06: 12
    An operation that failed before it even started.

    Chinese soldiers arrived in Belarus and the operation ended.
    1. +13
      8 July 2024 06: 31
      Well, yes... China is our everything... smile Still looking for an owner
      1. -4
        8 July 2024 06: 55
        Still looking for an owner

        Relations between states can only be of the master-servant type?
        Lukashenko uses China as a roof, and China wants to use Belarus as a window to Europe and simply have an ally. By the way, there are two of them here, also Vucic. This is called public policy.
        In general, it's just funny. Kyiv had been preparing something for several months, but several dozen Chinese soldiers arrived and everything turned out to be in vain. About Chinese soldiers - English writer Joseph Conrad: in an African country there was a British army, the security of which was ensured by the entire might of the British Empire.
  5. +14
    8 July 2024 08: 00
    And it’s so cool that one part of the Union State of Russia and Belarus does not officially recognize the territorial increments of the Union State.
  6. +3
    8 July 2024 09: 22
    Belarus may enter into conflict either by mistake or out of desperation. The tension at the border itself is more likely the result of propaganda than a real escalation.
  7. +7
    8 July 2024 09: 23
    IMHO, it looks like everything is the author’s imagination. I need to write something.
    break through the border and proclaim some kind of independent government?
    They’ve been writing for about 3 years now. But there’s not even an attempt. On the contrary, the Ukrainians, in a panic, fortified the border, mined, dug, and planted a hodgepodge of terbats there...

    What kind of “independent government” is there to prevent an attack on itself? The media wrote that the KGB Batki calmly dragged tongues and dissidents from Ukraine. Well, ours launched missiles from their space at Kyiv.

    Provocations? there will be. Because Zelya is not Putin, she doesn’t control everything and everyone.
    But in general, the 2nd front is not beneficial for Ukraine in any way.
  8. BAI
    8 July 2024 13: 15
    Ukraine is forced to keep its formations in border areas. And this is in conditions of a serious shortage of personnel in the area where the military training is taking place.

    Well, let him keep it. What's bad about it? Maybe the author wants them to be used against Russia?
  9. +5
    8 July 2024 16: 52
    As always, Mr. Staver, without much “introduction” into the analysis and without any particular desire to come to clear conclusions.... Belarus is, indeed, good in all respects, from stunning cleanliness everywhere, even in the forest, to a functioning and preserved economy and agriculture... And about the hard-working, warm-hearted, kind and intelligent, literate people - there is a separate “song” and “panegyrics”... A country worthy of great respect, admiration and imitation... And Old Man is a leader worthy of a monument, during his lifetime, for his devotion to the country, the people, the memory of his ancestors, although he was “cunning”, in the good sense of the word... But! There is one “aspect” that cannot be ignored: 75% of the modest, but decent, satisfying life of Belarus is in non-repayable loans from Russia... Today's Belarus is a kind of good, socialist “advertising” of the Union: Russia - Berarus, as it once was, in USSR, there were the Baltic republics or Georgia... And now to the current problems... Belarus, as a union state, is forced to keep its armed forces in suspense... Yes, this is not exactly “ser gut”, but this is the “fate” of any armed forces, in any sovereign country, with its own life-defining principles.... This, the Armed Forces, is their “fate” for which they receive “monetary support”, more significant than a mechanic - turner at a factory and a certain “group” of benefits... What will Various provocations on the border and inside the country are not news for the leadership of Belarus, but an expected problem. And the “game on nerves” is the result and consequences of the choice of Belarus - Slavic state unity with Russia... Modern international life, the structure of the modern world order and worldview suggest that for all the “pleasures” in this life, you have to “pay” with something.. Belarus has made its choice and shares some of the “inconveniences” of this choice, together with Russia.... Otherwise, it’s difficult...
    1. +3
      9 July 2024 01: 50
      Not at all. In 20-21, Belarus was actively moving according to the scenario of Ukraine. But thanks to the will of his comrades-in-arms and Lukashenko himself, with the support of the Russian Federation, it was possible to extinguish another bloody “revolution”.
      1. 0
        9 July 2024 20: 42
        Jager! Do you remember where and according to what scenario Russia was “actively moving”? almost 30 years? Is your note a eulogy for Belarus and its President or simply “about nothing”???
  10. 0
    8 July 2024 22: 12
    It is necessary to create a security zone by mining the adjacent territory.
    But in general... Those who were afraid to enter the war in February 2022 will receive it in 2025. If the Belarusian troops had stood a hundred or two hundred kilometers to the south, the situation would have been completely different. And the residents of these areas would have been saved from burial.
    1. +1
      9 July 2024 01: 48
      Why should Belarusians pay with their lives for the lives of residents of 404???
  11. 0
    9 July 2024 10: 58
    Belarus is forced to keep part of its armed forces in constant readiness, which is quite difficult for military personnel. Ukraine is forced to keep its formations in border areas.

    Here is the answer: Russia benefits from this. Belarus is not ready with its personal strength to intervene in hostilities and become a party to the conflict. so let them take over part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
    1. +1
      9 July 2024 20: 53
      The phrase “forced to keep” is not entirely suitable for a union state when another ally is fighting... According to the Union Treaty, it is “obliged to keep” its military contingent in a state of heightened combat readiness, by definition, covering the southern flank of the Union state, and in , in the event of aggression against the Union State, engage in battle with the aggressor...
      1. 0
        10 July 2024 21: 53
        I also noticed an inappropriate term... It turns out that we too will be “forced” to join the battle for the fraternal Belarusian people in the event of an attack on them?
        1. 0
          14 July 2024 17: 38
          drags33, that’s right, we will be “forced” to fight for the fraternal Belarusian people in the event of an attack on them...
  12. -1
    9 July 2024 22: 57
    There are quite a few problems in Belarus, and there is a particularly unpleasant one - the state of health of A.G. Lukashenko.
  13. 0
    10 July 2024 21: 50
    Of course, the Belarusian-Chinese exercises, which began on 8/07 and will last until 19/07, also played a role here. The Ukrainians probably knew about these exercises, which could also have played a role, although they began later than the celebrations in Minsk...
  14. 0
    14 July 2024 21: 47
    When I worked with Belarusians from the Soviet past, sometimes during conversations about the Second World War, they reminded me that during the war every fourth Belarusian died (there Germans and not only were brutalized), in Ukraine every third was a traitor. I heard from them several times.