Destroy the Sich-2-30 and ICEYE reconnaissance satellites
The conduct of the Russian special military operation (SVO) in Ukraine gave impetus to the development of new weapons and tactics for their use, which has not been equaled since the Second World War. The leading powers of the planet are carefully studying the experience of fighting between Russia and Ukraine and adapting their arsenals to the wars of the near future.
Perhaps the role of the orbital intelligence, control and communications infrastructure, and its influence on the course of hostilities here on earth, has never been so clearly visible.
All intelligence resources of Western countries, primarily the United States, are now being used in Ukraine’s interests – we can force them to stop delivering cruise and operational-tactical missiles missiles, if we act harshly and mercilessly, but how can we prevent them from passing intelligence data to Ukraine? How can we prevent them from planning strikes on our territory?
This is only possible if we begin destroying the enemy’s orbital infrastructure with our anti-satellite weapons. weapons.
Russia and China often make statements about the need to develop peaceful space, but these are only good wishes - space has never been peaceful and never will be. The sooner we understand this, the better it will be for us. While the leading world powers have carried out tests only on their spacecraft - satellites with exhausted resources, here we will not surprise anyone and will not convince anyone of anything.
Russia must be the first to use anti-satellite weapons on real objects - enemy spacecraft, at a minimum in order to show its ability, and most importantly, determination to conduct combat operations in space, especially since we have completely legitimate goals for this.
"Sich-2-30" and ICEYE
On January 13, 2022, Ukraine, using the American Falcon 9 launch vehicle (LV) of the American company SpaceX, launched into orbit the Sich-2-30 reconnaissance satellite, capable of receiving digital images in the infrared wavelength range.
Ukrainian satellite "Sich-2-30"
In fact, it is unlikely that the Sich-2-30 satellite provides any advantages to the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) and the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) of Ukraine - according to open data, its resolution is only 8 meters per pixel, that is, it can be detected with It can only be used for fairly large objects. At the same time, it still provides some data to the APU and power steering, of course, if this satellite is still “alive” at all.
Of course, the avalanche of information provided by the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Main Intelligence Directorate of the United States and other Western countries does not require Ukraine to have its own reconnaissance satellites, but still, Sich-2-30 is an element of prestige, this is what allows Ukraine to speak - “We are a space power.” From the very beginning of the Northern Military District, the aforementioned Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Main Intelligence Directorate made many attempts to strike targets that had not so much military or economic, but rather symbolic significance for our country, for example, the Crimean Bridge, as they say - debt is worth paying.
One Sich-2-30 satellite was not enough for Ukraine, so Ukrainian public and political figure Sergei Prytula purchased a radar reconnaissance satellite from the Finnish aerospace company ICEYE - the Ukrainians call it the “people's satellite ICEYE”. The satellites in this series use synthetic aperture radar (SAR), with a resolution of less than one meter, which can be used at any time and in all weather conditions, in darkness and cloudy conditions.
The author wrote back in December 2020 in the article that such “civilian” reconnaissance satellites could become a problem Capella Space's All-Seeing Eye: Harbinger of the Satellite Intelligence Revolution.
According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine, during the period of use of the national satellite ICEYE, 4 photographs of Russian objects were taken with its help, including 173 airfields, 370 air defense positions (Defense) and radio-technical reconnaissance (RTR), 153 oil depots and fuel depots, 147 missile depots, aviation weapons and ammunition, 17 naval bases (NMB). Of the entire array of data obtained with the help of the ICEYE satellite, about 38% were used to prepare fire strikes on reconnoitered objects.
Images obtained by the State Intelligence Service of Ukraine using the ICEYE satellite
That is, if the destruction of the Sich-2-30 satellite is more of a political gesture, then the destruction of the people's satellite ICEYE is a direct military necessity.
In general, both need to be shot down, especially since Russia has the means to do this.
Anti-satellite capabilities
Based on information published in open sources, Russia has several ways to destroy Ukrainian satellites.
Presumably, the most proven method is to send Russian satellite inspectors to Ukrainian satellites. Apparently, the Ukrainian satellites "Sich-2-30" and ICEYE are not capable of actively maneuvering in orbit - "Sich-2-30" even at launch lost orientation in space (which is typical for Ukraine) and was difficult to restore its functionality, receiving The solar panels receive only light reflected from our planet.
It is possible that we will not even need to launch anything into orbit; perhaps the work can be done by any of the existing satellites of the Cosmos family. For example, based on open data, the Cosmos-2504 and Cosmos-2536 satellites, launched as part of the Nivelir program, are still in orbit.
Presumably, Russian inspection satellites were created on the Karat platform
On the one hand, Russian satellite inspectors have already practiced rendezvous with enemy spacecraft, on the other hand, there have not yet been confirmed cases of destruction of their own objects (for test purposes) or enemy objects, and these, as they say, are “two big differences” - one It’s one thing to fly a few tens of meters from the desired object, another thing is to destroy it with an accurate hit.
The destruction of the Ukrainian Sich-2-30 and ICEYE satellites by Russian inspector satellites can be carried out in two stages.
At the first stage, inspection satellites can approach the Sich-2-30 and ICEYE satellites and remain in relative proximity to them for some time. With a high probability, these maneuvers will be detected by US space reconnaissance, after which Ukraine and Western countries can talk about this to their hearts’ content, without having any opportunity to counter it - we must show all the powerlessness of the United States and its allies in terms of protecting their orbital infrastructure and allies.
At the same time, another Russian anti-satellite weapon could be tested, namely combat laser complex (BLK) "Peresvet", which is currently gathering dust somewhere in hangars without any use.
In general, we have already said earlier that with the help of the Peresvet BLK it would be possible to work on American reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) hanging around the Black Sea, but for now we prefer to pour kerosene on them.
BLK "Peresvet"
It is possible that the presence of inspector satellites next to the Ukrainian Sich-2-30 and ICEYE satellites will make it possible to carry out objective monitoring of the impact of the Peresvet BLK on these satellites, of course, if it is capable of exerting any impact detectable using technical reconnaissance means inspector satellites. At a minimum, the fact that the laser is hitting and tracking enemy objects can be detected.
And after that you can shoot it down - ram it with an inspector satellite. I would like to hope that by this time the United States and its accomplices will have already drawn at least a few red lines that we will trample on, having shot down the Ukrainian orbital wreck Sich-2-30 and the former Finnish ICEYE satellite.
Another confirmed anti-satellite capability is the use of surface-to-space missiles. Presumably, on November 15, 2021, a missile from the Nudol complex (program?) destroyed the Russian inactive spacecraft Tselina-D.
The proposed type of mobile launcher P222 of a long-range echelon (product 14Ts033) of a promising anti-missile and anti-space defense system on the Nudol theme, developed by JSC Concern VKO Almaz-Antey. Image e-maksimov.livejournal.com
If we are not confident in our inspector satellites or do not want to lose them, then a strike could also be delivered by missiles from the Nudol complex.
In addition, the strike can be combined - the rapprochement of inspector satellites with Ukrainian satellites, testing of the Peresvet BLK with objective control of the process and results, and then a strike with ground-to-space missiles, also with objective control from inspection satellites (the main thing is our own satellites cannot be destroyed).
We should not forget that, presumably, the newest Russian S-500 anti-aircraft missile system should also have anti-satellite capabilities. If this is really the case, and the complex is ready for use, then its testing on such a complex target as an artificial Earth satellite would be a good way to demonstrate Russia’s capabilities in this direction.
By the way, there is some confusion here - some sources put forward versions that the Tselina-D satellite was shot down by the S-500 air defense missile system, and some talk about a certain modification of the S-550 with expanded anti-satellite capabilities. It is possible that work on all of the above topics comes down to several modifications of the same complex, aimed at hitting aerodynamic or ballistic targets, just as there are air defense systems of the S-300P family (aerodynamic targets) and air defense systems of the S-300V family (ballistic targets ). In principle, it doesn’t matter what it’s called, the main thing is that it works.
The launcher from the S-500 air defense system, and maybe the S-550, however, it also very much resembles the aforementioned launcher developed on the “Nudol” theme. Image from the Russian Ministry of Defense
Conclusions
Russia has every opportunity to shoot down the Ukrainian Sich-2-30 and ICEYE satellites, and we simply must do this - all the industry that Ukraine has was inherited from the USSR, and current Ukraine is not worthy of being called a space power. As they say, the process of decommunization must be brought to its logical conclusion, as a result of which Ukraine will become a peaceful, pastoral, agricultural state without high technology and heavy industry. And on top of that, the ICEYE satellite poses a very real military threat.
The most important factor will be the reaction of the United States and other Western countries, let's see how they behave in such a situation, whether they will draw any red lines when Russian inspector satellites appear near the Ukrainian Sich-2-30 and ICEYE satellites, and what will happen when we cross these lines?
It’s worth inserting a remark here - many fear that by doing so we will push the United States and other countries into an arms race in space. It’s worth disappointing our “peace-loving doves” - the race in space is already underway and will never stop. The limits of what the United States can do will be determined by its achievements in the field of creating advanced space technology - the Starship / Super Heavy from SpaceX will fly, and the arms race in space will reach its peak, regardless of whether we shoot down the Ukrainian satellite or not. And only our ability to create similar systems, as well as our determination and willingness to use them, can limit the arms race in space.
In general, for now we clearly lack the determination to take truly serious actions, for example, such as supply of powerful anti-ship weapons to the Houthis (for now there are only rumors that things can still change, so fingers crossed), Blowing up underwater internet cables between the US and Europe (if necessary, you can also blame it on the Houthis; they are unlikely to mind) or demonstrative detonation of Zmeiny Island using a charge comparable in power to a nuclear one, so that in Romania the glass will break.
And our caution is more like weakness, it only accustoms our opponents to disgusting - it seems to them that they can cross any boundaries, and nothing will happen to them for it.
It's time to give up illusions and move on to more decisive and aggressive actions - the Sich-2-30 and ICEYE satellites must be destroyed.
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