Are you on the right course, comrade ruble?

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Are you on the right course, comrade ruble?


There will be no more dollar


Experts from the business media are very fond of talking about the dollar; for almost thirty years, the dollar has been very interesting to Russians. But now we should only be concerned about the ruble itself, as well as the level of prices and wages.



So, we are writing about the June ruble. Whether it grows or falls, you see, is no longer so important. The separation, not actual, but mainly psychological, from the dollar, or more precisely, from its exchange rate, can already be taken for granted in Russia.

And don’t say that some of those who are one way or another close to the Bank of Russia simply needed currency for a vacation. Somehow I can’t believe it. It is clear that those who really needed euros or dollars to travel abroad either bought it much earlier or had such a reserve that it would be enough for several more trips. That's the minimum.

Another thing is that dollars and euros are not really needed inside Russia right now. Nobody here even paid attention to the reduction in the standard for the repatriation of export earnings - from 80 to 60 percent, since this did not have any impact on either the outflow or inflow of currency into or out of the country. Although maybe not yet.

The relevant data from the Central Bank will not be known soon, but it will not even be the currency commissioners who will scrutinize them, but narrow, almost invisible, specialists and fanatics.

From the point of view of a skeptical expert


Before the presidential elections, the skeptics on duty vied with each other to advise everyone to buy foreign currency, since, in their expert, although not very authoritative opinion, after Putin’s re-election, the ruble was supposed to fall in value. Absolutely!

But he should - he is not yet obliged, and for some reason the ruble went up in exchange rate, although not immediately. But why is not entirely clear, unless, of course, you take into account the propaganda effect and the need, not the most urgent, mind you, to refute the liberal chatter about the construction of a new “Iron Curtain” in Russia.

In fact, it would be interesting to know why it is we, and not the collective West, who are building this “curtain,” and why it ends up being so scanty?

However, with the current record incomes of Russia, which has been limited in the export of everything that is possible and impossible, starting, of course, with oil and gas, the ruble simply has nowhere to go.

So he gets stronger. But exporters, of whom there are now clearly more in Russia than before the pandemic and SVO, do not need a strong ruble at all, like that letter to the general from the joke. For manufacturing enterprises, the exchange rate is also fundamentally not so important; give them a lower credit interest rate.

In the real sector, investors do not have time to master the funds offered to them, even if obscenely fat banks are ready to sell them at rates much lower than the key one from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. This is exactly what business surveys, which are now published less and less often, show.

With an eye on the investor


Everything that sociologists and business analysts are now saying and writing about real investors has a basis if they are not part of a select few and are not involved in the military sphere. And this despite the fact that the full supply of the participants of the Northern Military District still leaves much to be desired.

But everything is in perfect order, judging only by the result, in terms of the Central Bank’s strict monetary policy. Against this background, the ruble was provided with additional support throughout the month by a strong balance of payments.

Dollars are most often not easy to place somewhere, and it is no longer possible to take them abroad so easily. You just have to sell them to the Central Bank at a declining rate. As a result, the tax period associated with the end of the second quarter of the year also had a quite positive impact on the ruble exchange rate.

Although for many years the balance of payments, no matter how wonderful it may look, was perceived as somehow faded against the backdrop of the growing outflow of currency abroad. Still, June was not as successful for the ruble as May. It’s just time to gain a foothold in the positions won from the dollar and euro.


In May, the dollar/ruble pair fell by 3,17%, to 90,1, which greatly exceeds the forecast figures from our chart (see above). However, the chart shows fluctuations in the ruble-dollar pair, not growth or decline.

However, based on the results of June, and then in July, the ruble exchange rate cannot rise above two percent. But within the month of June, the strengthening of the national currency was even more noticeable than in May.

The dollar exchange rate updated annual minimums over and over again, falling in some trading sessions close to the mark of 83 rubles per American. Meanwhile, the euro exchange rate no longer tried to approach levels closer to the important psychological mark of 100 rubles.

Previously, analysts regularly justified the strengthening of the ruble by maintaining strict monetary conditions, although why, in fact, should this be justified. They also referred to the high key rate and its possible increase in the future. Although today very few people take out loans using it, with the exception of outright speculators.

Many generally believe that at the June meeting the Central Bank of the Russian Federation may add at least another percentage to the rate. And, again, because of rising prices, although our prices go up both at high and at low rates. But in order to ensure that the ruble does not go too deep, leaving exporters with almost no profit, an increased rate can make a difference.

We don't have any other rate for you.


That’s right, the Central Bank has no other rate, just as there are no other instruments to influence inflation. The strengthening of the ruble, which began in May and continues now, is, of course, reflected in the foreign exchange market, although with a month or even more delay.

The Bank of Russia will, of course, continue to sell billions of yuan from reserves every day - just in case. But speculators will clearly postpone attacks on the ruble, even with the help of the Chinese currency, until August - for some reason, it is in this month in Russia, as we all remember, that something bad always happens.

After all, it is in August that some kind of reaction to EU measures against Russian gas will begin and something like another counter-offensive on the Northern Military District front. And in August, importers may need to urgently bring at least something to Russia in anticipation of the traditionally high autumn demand.

Something may change with oil prices, since competitors, including those like Iran, which is constantly “playing partner and ally,” can greatly increase both production and exports. And bring down prices, which even OPEC leaders are unlikely to be able to resist.
34 comments
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  1. +12
    9 July 2024 05: 51
    I don’t understand - are we doing well or is it time to buy salt, matches, kerosene? And buckwheat, of course.
    1. +8
      9 July 2024 09: 47
      Are you not reading carefully? We are doing well, very well! In other words - “Sir, you are stupid if you have not yet purchased salt, matches and kerosene so that there will be enough for your grandchildren for the rest of their lives”...
      But seriously, what kind of strengthening of the ruble can we talk about if it is not a “market” currency now? Its course is set by the state from its own vision, and not by the market... And what do we have there with the National Welfare Fund? If you throw out “illiquid assets” from it, like “Ukrainian 3 billion”, shares of state companies, etc., then at best you will be left to close the holes in next year’s budget and that’s it, the money has run out (and this is taking into account that the deficit this year and next year will not be higher than planned for 2024) ... and the way exports bloom and smell ... you can heat the stove with rupees, because for others they are of even less use.
      1. +8
        9 July 2024 10: 06
        OK. I'll also take some alcohol.
      2. +3
        9 July 2024 15: 20
        But seriously, what kind of strengthening of the ruble can we talk about if it is not a “market” currency now? Its course is set by the state from its vision

        In general, it would be better not to post articles on VO about exchange rates and the ruble, since this is a very specific topic in which most people simply do not understand. At one time in the USSR, people lived on their own and basically had no idea about the ruble exchange rate. At the same time, prices were more or less stable, and there was more than enough shortage. At the same time, goods were mainly produced in the USSR. But now the goods are mainly produced in China and the exchange rate of the ruble to the yuan matters. At the same time, exports to China exceed imports and it seemed that the excess of yuan should make it cheaper and, accordingly, make Chinese goods cheaper. However, this does not happen. As for the dollar and euro, there is essentially a ban on their use. Since the scope of their circulation is limited, its quotation is problematic.
        1. 0
          9 July 2024 16: 39
          Why did people in the union need currency? If you managed to leave the union, then there were two options - either it was the eastern bloc, where rubles were accepted, or the state issued currency for expenses. Well, if you go with a return, if it’s one way, then you still won’t take anything... regarding stable prices during the union - that’s how they were set by the state, some of the goods were unprofitable for the state, the cost price was higher than the price tag in the store, this is one of the reasons for the strain economy and deficit... this has nothing to do with the exchange rate... for and the ruble was not particularly interesting to countries in the world, because either the union would supply it conditionally for free or sell/buy for foreign currency...
          Regarding China - since there are really no trading partners other than China, then China raises price tags, before you could buy a product, for example, in France, but it was produced in China, but for the French, China is just a factory. Well, or buy an analogue from the Chinese without markings. Now the only option left is with analogues... and you know, a monopoly does not lead to lower prices...
      3. 0
        10 July 2024 08: 43
        The exchange rate is now set by the Central Bank based on the daily protocols of leading banks. These protocols reflect interbank currency trading rates and their volumes. Banks trade freely among themselves; there are no interventions now. Or they are small. Based on the consolidation of protocol data, which banks transmit to the Central Bank every evening, after entering the data into the formula, the Central Bank receives the desired value and fixes the rate for the day. Absolutely market history. The striped thickheads, introducing sanctions against the Moscow Exchange, hoped for deregulation and shaking of our foreign exchange market. Another oops. The dog barks - the caravan moves on.
    2. +5
      9 July 2024 10: 46
      Don't worry, everything is fine. It’s just that my mother’s economists also want to eat, so they are forced to at least write something.
      1. +5
        9 July 2024 10: 53
        He exhaled. But I'll buy some alcohol.
  2. +5
    9 July 2024 06: 00
    Bullshit. The separation from the dollar ensures the stability of the ruble. If, on the advice of brainless turbo-patriots, it is brought down, the money will take away the bank deposits and will be transferred to the dollar. Well, or yuan.

    By the way, the idea of ​​“let’s trade for rubles” will also fail, who will sell for candy wrappers that are getting cheaper before our eyes?
    1. +5
      9 July 2024 08: 16
      Quote: Kvakosavrus
      . If, on the advice of brainless turbo-patriots, it is brought down, the money will take away the bank deposits and will be transferred to the dollar. Well, or yuan.

      So first they will bring it down, and then they will re-arrange it. That is, the state will already cut off the money. And when the Mammoth population is restored, they will collapse again and again
  3. +7
    9 July 2024 06: 02
    Yes, an ordinary person, even if there is a crisis, even a lottery, even an apocalypse, will still not have money, but as they say, we will hold on...
  4. +7
    9 July 2024 06: 11
    You’d better write about the “gas” ruble, how it tears apart other currencies.
    1. 0
      10 July 2024 23: 03
      Quote: parusnik
      You’d better write about the “gas” ruble, how it tears apart other currencies.

      Not all banks in the Russian Federation are disconnected from SWIFT. Payment for gas, oil... is in euros and dollars, the fact that the Russian Federation sells them to the EU, England, and the USA for rubles is a lie. The Russian Federation simply sells Western currency on the domestic market. Therefore, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation sets the required exchange rate. Course, course, but you need to look at sales volumes.
      The Central Bank of the Russian Federation is the regulator of Russian banks. His task is to ensure their profit. That’s why there are attacks on the Government’s preferential programs. The state still has a Treasury, but any money in the Russian Federation is “circulated” through banks. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation is no exception. hi
  5. +5
    9 July 2024 06: 53
    Meanwhile, the National Welfare Fund continues to lose weight.
    4,6 trillion left. Where did the money go? To support national heritage.
    Through the purchase of securities - 100 billion to Rostec, 60 to Gazprombank, 10 to Rosavtodor... Etc.
    Next year the budget deficit is planned at 2 trillion..... wink
    1. +5
      9 July 2024 07: 15
      So, this fund was created precisely for this purpose, in order to maintain the usual level of spending on social services during the “Lenten years” and not bring down systemically important institutions.
      It’s logical that we’re eating it now.
      and since, you correctly noted, in another 1-2 years and the money will run out - that is why the leadership is looking for options for negotiations and agreements, no matter how hysterically the “schizopatriots” scream hysterically at this...
      1. +3
        9 July 2024 21: 31
        Quote: deathtiny
        So, this fund was created precisely for this purpose, in order to maintain the usual level of spending on social services during the “Lenten years” and not bring down systemically important institutions.
        It’s logical that we’re eating it now.

        Both! Are we really going to spend it on social services? Let's say a loan to Aeroflot for 15 years at 1.5% to buy back old Boeings, is this really social? wassat
        1. 0
          10 July 2024 22: 05
          Quote: Saxahorse
          Let's say a loan to Aeroflot for 15 years at 1.5% to buy back old Boeings, is this really a social benefit?
          - Aeroflot will buy new ones on credit and make tickets 3 times more expensive. And then yes, the current price of tickets will be remembered as a social benefit
  6. +5
    9 July 2024 06: 59
    A very uplifting article. True, I still don’t understand what kind of separation of the ruble from the dollar we can talk about, when even Belarusian partners give preference to mutual settlements in USD. If we are talking about the transition to payments in national currencies, then we have already seen its consequences in the example of Indian rupees, which fell illiquid on the shoulders of the domestic economy, which needs machines and electronics, and not tea and spices - the only goods that, due to sanctions, Indian partners can offer us in exchange for their own national currency. For other countries of the world, rupees (as well as rubles themselves) are not at all interesting. Fortunately, it seems that the imbalance has been relieved a little at the expense of the pharmaceutical industry, which they are not in a hurry to impose sanctions on because of potential image costs, but this is a “crutch.” Of course, instead of rupees, you can turn to the yuan, which, at first glance, appears to be a more mobile and liquid currency, but let’s not forget that, like the Russian government, the CCP likes to drop the rate of the national currency every few years in order to maintain the investment attractiveness of China for international multinationals and TNB, so long-term investing in the yuan is always a cost and a bearish game. And again, the problem of mutual exchange and sanctions arises, as well as the accumulation of excessive amounts of not the most universal means of payment. As for the enthusiastic slogans that the dollar/euro exchange rates are stable, plus or minus, one must understand that the value of the ruble has long been no longer dependent on market mechanisms, but is determined imperatively, by orders from above, and any attempts by business to resist this lead to the fact that trading simply stops. I'm not saying that this is good or bad, this is a reality in which we all exist. Moreover, to the credit of domestic regulators, the price of the Russian currency is not taken completely out of thin air, but is justified by some kind of business models, calculations, as well as analysis of financial focus groups. But its value relative to the ruble still has no effect on the investment attractiveness of the dollar itself. Yes, within the country, unlike most CIS countries, we do not pay in conventional units, but outside its borders there is still no alternative to the dollar. And the fact that the dollar is no longer traded on the Moscow exchange will mean only one thing - the formation of a shadow market, just like in the late USSR, in which officially 64 kopecks were given for one Washington, while speculators sold the currency at a price of one to three not in favor ticket of the Soviet state bank.
    1. 0
      10 July 2024 23: 07
      Quote: Dante
      Yes, within the country, unlike most CIS countries, we do not pay in conventional units, but outside its borders there is still no alternative to the dollar.

      And what prevents you from creating an alternative to the dollar? hi
  7. +8
    9 July 2024 07: 28
    For a simple stinker, 99% of this article is not clear. He sees that nothing is changing around the country, but incomprehensible movements are happening with the ruble and the dollar. He doesn’t understand why gasoline is becoming so expensive, and much more. Nabiullina recently stated that there are three reasons for this situation, although the main one is her, her actions in our oligarchic capitalism. It is impossible to steal 11 trillion in the Moscow region without banks and manipulations with the ruble and foreign currency.
    Here, respected authors, would explain in simple terms what is happening. hi
  8. +8
    9 July 2024 07: 53
    The authors, once again, buried the dollar. Apparently this has become a tradition and we have been keeping it for 30 years. How is it... ah... the funeral of the dollar is our everything.
    1. 0
      10 July 2024 23: 17
      Quote: kor1vet1974
      The authors have once again buried the dollar.

      The dollar is burying itself. Settlements in the Russian Federation continue to be carried out in rubles. Therefore, nothing threatens the Russian economy. The threat of international trade is also not critical. But it leads to costs (intermediaries take a percentage). Life requires the creation of a new inter-national currency, not under the control of the US Federal Reserve. hi
  9. +2
    9 July 2024 07: 55
    The dollar is the world reserve currency and the separation of the ruble from the dollar is just a figure of speech and a propaganda cliche. This stamp arose because it became difficult to work with us technically in dollars due to sanctions, so the forced transition to other currencies is presented as a struggle for independence and a multipolar world.
    1. +4
      9 July 2024 08: 14
      Well...it’s not that it’s forced, there were movements towards it even before the sanctions. The idea itself is correct; by trading for your currency, you support it, and not the enemy’s currency.

      But for such a transition you need your own stable currency, otherwise who needs it.
    2. +6
      9 July 2024 08: 25
      The dollar is the world reserve currency and the separation of the ruble from the dollar is just a figure of speech and a propaganda cliche. This stamp arose because it became difficult to work with us technically in dollars due to sanctions, so the forced transition to other currencies is presented as a struggle for independence and a multipolar world.

      Still cooler. We were weaned off the dollar. And then we pretended that we were switching to other currencies.
    3. 0
      10 July 2024 23: 22
      Quote: S.Z.
      therefore, the forced transition to other currencies is presented as a struggle for independence and a multipolar world.

      A multi-polar world is not possible if the pole does not have its own currency. Because by using the currency of the western pole, one puts oneself in a dependent position on it. hi
  10. BAI
    0
    9 July 2024 08: 58
    The Russian budget is based on 94 rubles per dollar
  11. +2
    9 July 2024 10: 35
    The Schasovites blocked the Moscow Exchange channel and lowered the “curtain”. The exchange rate replaced the bank rate and greatly complicated cross-border settlements in hard currency.
    The main bank from year to year exceeds the planned inflation of 4% and raises the rate to curb it, and the reason for inflation is the imbalance of money and commodity supply that commercial banks create by issuing unsecured loans and guarantees to their clients.
    In October, the Russian Federation will propose for consideration a plan to create a single digital banknote based on gold and an alternative payment system to Swift, probably based on the well-proven SPF.
    There are many questions, the great and honored ones will discuss them at the meeting and perhaps decide something, but nothing will fundamentally change without the creation of supranational governing and planning bodies, and it is unlikely that there will be anyone willing to give up power in their domain.
  12. +5
    9 July 2024 10: 39
    It's all so secondary
    Here are the prices in shops and transport, housing and communal services....

    But they write about this here much less often than about winning over the buck...

    But in reality, it seems, “they’re just taking theirs on the domestic market”... then you can keep the buck and not deny yourself anything.... eat...
  13. -1
    9 July 2024 11: 25
    Quote: Kvakosavrus
    Well...it’s not that it’s forced, there were movements towards it even before the sanctions. The idea itself is correct; by trading for your currency, you support it, and not the enemy’s currency.

    But for such a transition you need your own stable currency, otherwise who needs it.


    One of the classic functions of money is universal equivalent. You can trade even for kuna, but the price of the kuna will be tied to its equivalent, that is, the dollar.

    By the way, the United States is not our enemy.
    1. 0
      10 July 2024 23: 24
      Quote: S.Z.
      You can trade even for kuna, but the price of the kuna will be tied to its equivalent, that is, the dollar.

      You are not right . Can be tied to the gold standard. And the currency is not called kuna, but Brix. hi
  14. +6
    9 July 2024 11: 36
    How difficult it is to wade through this stream of consciousness and catch at least some meaning of what these authors wrote.. I have been working in financial analytics for more than 20 years, even it’s difficult for me..
    This time I didn’t understand the authors’ idea, I confess. I'm not mature enough, apparently.
  15. +7
    9 July 2024 12: 40
    The author lives in a different reality. Probably in ORT. Pearl was especially pleased with “Russia’s current record income.” There was no need to read further. And also about the real sector of the economy, which is developing furiously and banks simply don’t know where to put the money....
    What is this? Did an illiterate AI scramble the article or do you need such stuffing that “everything is fine, beautiful marquise”?
  16. 0
    11 July 2024 14: 16
    Why does our country not have a state bank, but some kind of “central bank” that is not subordinate to the Russian government and stifles economic development with sky-high interest rates? (just compare them with other countries - Japan, Europe - what are their rates...)