Persian hub for Russian gas

13
Persian hub for Russian gas


Voice of Tehran


Russia and Iran not long ago signed an agreement on gas transportation, which, it must be admitted, is more of a declarative rather than a real technical nature. However, in anticipation of another blow to Russian gas exports, which was ultimately dealt by the 14th package of EU sanctions, it is simply impossible to overestimate its importance.



And even though the Russian Gazprom is in no hurry to make positive assessments, the Iranian side prefers not to remain silent. Moreover, Tehran has done almost everything possible on its part to turn Iran into a gas hub. For now, of course, regional.

Nevertheless, the prospect of its expansion, albeit long-term, which will most likely require participants to create unprecedented investments, is already clear. Last Wednesday, as you know, Gazprom and the Iranian National Gas Company (NIGC) signed a memorandum of understanding on gas supplies from Russia to Iran.

Let us recall that before the severance of relations with the European Union and the terrorist attack on the Nord Stream, the European direction was the main direction for the export of Russian gas. Now the first place on the Russian gas agenda has actually been forced to shift towards the East, primarily China.

He has already demanded that the Russian gas giant sharply accelerate work on projects united under the Power of Siberia brand. At the same time, Russia is increasing the export of liquefied natural gas - LNG, which the European Union is trying with all its might to prevent.

The scale is not the same...


However, European bureaucrats were clearly delayed with the 14th package of sanctions, which provides for direct measures against the Yamal LNG project and against the Russian gas fleet, mainly from Sovcomflot. This package will actually come into force no earlier than the fall.

It should be noted that, both at the present time and in the future, there is no talk of creating gas hubs in the eastern direction of the type and scale that were built on the Baltic coast of Germany.

Practical German gas workers do not particularly hide the fact that they have already carried out a significant part of the work in order to adapt these capacities, which were mainly focused on the Russian-European Nord Streams, to receive American LNG.

It is significant that a significant part of that very American liquefied gas is nothing more than a resource purchased from Russian gas workers who found themselves under sanctions. Both European and American, by the way.

Returning to the Russian-Iranian project, the beginning of which can currently only be discussed in the future tense, we especially note the deliberately positive assessments of Iranian Oil Minister Javad Ouja, who is convinced that the deal with Moscow will sharply increase Iran’s share in the international gas market.


A word about revolution


Javad Oudji, during negotiations with the head of Gazprom, Alexei Miller, once again cited not the most confirmed, but very impressive data that Iran and Russia are the owners of 60 percent of the world's gas reserves. The minister has no doubt that “thanks to this agreement, Iran’s share in gas trade will increase, which will lead to changes in international balances.”

Minister Oudji went further in his speech, declaring that with the transition from an agreement to a real contract, it will be possible to talk about a “revolution in the energy and industry of the region.”

However, the reality is still very far from the minister’s epochal expectations. Let's start with the fact that the gas swap, that is, the mutual exchange of gas export volumes, between Iran and Russia has been in limbo for several years now.

Previously there was talk of supplies of about 10 billion cubic meters. m of blue fuel per year. Then the volume of 5,5 billion cubic meters was discussed more than once. m, as well as the possibility of involving Turkmenistan and Qatar in the project. Using the reverse of one of the lines of the Central Asia - Center (CAC) international gas pipeline system, it is quite possible to bring Russian gas to the south of Turkmenistan for further supplies to Iran.

And yet, the figures that have appeared so far cannot be compared with the capacities of Nord Stream or Power of Siberia, although we must still take into account the readiness of number 1 on the part of a number of potential partners.

Thus, Pakistan is already starting to build its section of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline MGP "Mir". In this case, India, the countries of Southeast Asia, and even China will be able to buy gas from the Iranian hub.


Where will we build?


The hub should be built in the north of the country in order to use the gas production capacities that are currently being built with the participation of the Russian side. Problems with gas transportation to the west - towards the Mediterranean coast, with the prospect of supplying Europe and North Africa, can arise only due to political instability.

It is interesting that a number of projects accompanying the creation of a gas hub are currently being implemented, one might say, ahead of the curve. For example, in the south of Iran on the shores of the Persian Gulf, the Assaluyeh industrial district of Bushehr province with its nuclear power plant has already become the site for the creation of an electronic trading platform.

At the same time, Iran’s activity at the hub may well be caused by the fact that the 2021 trilateral agreement, which provides for swap supplies of up to 5–6 million cubic meters, has now actually been curtailed. m of gas per day (1,5–2 billion cubic meters per year) to Azerbaijan from Turkmenistan through Iran.

Well, the optimism of the Iranian partner is clearly added by complete clarity on gas in the agreement on the Iran-EAEU free trade zone and the start of Russian gas supplies to Uzbekistan through Kazakhstan. With the same prospect - to bring Russian gas to Iran, and if necessary, Iranian gas to Russia. Further - everywhere.

Apparently, Minister J. Ouji was not lying when he said that Iran, with its widespread national network of gas pipelines and related infrastructure, is completely ready to receive gas. Russian gas, as you understand.
13 comments
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  1. 0
    4 July 2024 06: 39
    It’s rightly noted that the scale is not the same compared to European ones. Yes, and I’ll note about the supposedly Amerz LNG, which was purchased from Russia.. So it’s obviously cheap.. Even very cheap. After all, there’s nowhere to go. Maybe our gas workers’ appetites, first of all, can be reduced. And What has this Lakhta or sports clubs done for the Russian economy?
    1. -1
      4 July 2024 12: 09
      .What have this Lakhta or sports clubs done for the Russian economy? Well, for example, the Federal Customs Service provided up to 62% of the country’s budget (mostly consisting of export duties)
      That is each soldier/doctor/teacher/civil servant/pensioner/and others - received their salaries from Gazprom.
      The Federal Tax Service provided about 20% of the state budget.
      For understanding sizes budget revenues - every day 26 billion rubles are spent on pension payments alone.
      1. 0
        4 July 2024 12: 42
        The question is about what? About gigantic expenses on non-core assets and exaggerated pathos, or about budget revenues?
        1. -1
          4 July 2024 16: 14
          gigantic spending on non-core assets and exaggerated pathos - I agree, the expenses are big, but not gigantic. Alas, Russian business cannot do without show-offs - like the whole world.
          budget revenues? I announced the amounts of revenue to the budget above.
          There is nothing special to replace them with.
  2. +3
    4 July 2024 08: 35
    The article is long, but not very informative for the average person.
    If briefly:
    1.
    A preliminary agreement on the construction of Mir was signed by Iran and Pakistan back in 1995. In 1999, India joined the project. Since then, only the Iranian section of the pipeline has been completed and some of the pipes have been laid in Pakistan, where work has started and then stopped. Officially, difficulties arose due to American sanctions against Iran. In reality, the source of the problem was US pressure on Pakistan and India.

    2.
    Russia has its own economic interest in the project, which is not limited to the participation of our companies in the construction of the gas pipeline and the supply of equipment. In 2023, Iran and Russia agreed on swap supplies of oil and gas. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak reported that at the first stage we are talking about an annual volume of 5 million tons of Russian oil and 10 billion cubic meters of gas. It was understood that we would supply a certain volume of our gas to the north of Iran, where there are no deposits, but there is consumption, and Iran could supply gas produced from the southern fields of the country to Pakistan and India. The problem is that we can supply gas to Iran only through transit or by building a gas pipeline across the Caspian Sea, which will require permission from other countries.

    3.
    The Indian gas market is a tasty morsel for any exporter of blue fuel; it is growing faster than the Chinese one.
    hi
    1. 0
      5 July 2024 23: 23
      Quote: Gomunkul
      The Indian gas market is a tasty morsel for any exporter of blue fuel; it is growing faster than the Chinese one

      The interest here is this - if you bring pipeline gas to the coast of the Persian Gulf and build gas-liquefaction capacities there (and Russia has all these competencies, technologies and production capacities), then from the Persian Gulf ordinary (not ice-class) gas carriers can deliver LNG without only to India (it is very close, and the market is growing quickly) and China, but also to all countries of Southeast Asia and East Africa on a very short shoulder. Making do with fewer gas carriers and increasing their useful output, accelerating payback.
      This is also beneficial for Iran, because having gigantic gas reserves, it cannot export them. And here, thanks to the partnership with the Russian Federation, there are immediately gas-liquefaction capacities, pipelines to Pakistan and possibly India, and investments (including technological and technical ones) in our own gas production. And for overall convenience, benefit and mutual guarantees, it is possible to exchange part of the shares of Gazprom and the Iranian gas concern. We will get access to the Indian Ocean bypassing Europe and all the dangerous straits and the narrow throat of Suez, and Iran will receive a powerful gas industry with all the competencies and huge stable profits.
      And if things go like this, then we can start a joint shipbuilding cluster in Iran. And build gas carriers and tankers right there - it’s warm all year round, labor is inexpensive and the right vessels are immediately available where they are needed. This will probably be much more reliable than building shipyards in India... And Iran will benefit from such prospects fellow prospects are simply in Space.
      In addition, to insure risks and to balance investments, Iran can be offered to invest the same amount in the Russian economy as Russia invests in Iran. And not so much in gas production and main pipelines, but in high technology, mechanical engineering, transport, and infrastructure.
      And it is clear that for all this the same “Comprehensive Union Treaty” is necessary. And the formation of a single market.
  3. 0
    4 July 2024 08: 46
    “Water, water, all around, water..” (c) I’ll explain why. The agreement is declarative in nature, i.e. maybe it will be so...Accordingly, the article is like this, perhaps, probably, maybe.. "Think for yourself, decide for yourself.." (c)
  4. +1
    4 July 2024 09: 19
    ... the gas swap, that is, the mutual exchange of gas export volumes, between Iran and Russia has been in limbo for several years now.
    Previously there was talk of supplies of about 10 billion cubic meters. m of blue fuel per year. Then the volume of 5,5 billion cubic meters was discussed more than once. m...
    The hub should be built in the north of the country in order to use the gas production capacities that are currently being built with the participation of the Russian side....

    There is not and will not be any “gas hub”.
    1. All selling countries want to sell, firstly, “theirs” at a higher price.
    If someone has the opportunity to buy cheaper and sell more expensive - they will buy and sell - we will not point a finger at a country whose first letter in its name is “T” and the last “I” (they also make good money on oil there). But the European Union and the United States and this story is going to be...
    2. There is no gas shortage on the market.
    3. Even in the article about Iran we talk about “dead projects” of the volume 5,5–10 billion cubic meters For example, the volume of supplies to Europe for 2021."to Europe and Central Asia. In 2021, these countries were sent 196,4 billion cubic meters m of gas, or 96% of the total supply."Have you compared the volumes? Let's move on.
    4. Gas prices, thanks to the fact that producers rushed to cover the share of “you know who” who left the premium market, collapsed three times in Europe (from 1000 to 300 USD).

    Brief summary.
    Leonid Brezhnev, who got the Germans (and through them other Europeans) hooked on “gas and pipes”, IMHO, is now spinning in his grave, wanting to find out how it could happen that thanks to a “cunning plan” someone decided to scare Europe, and Europe I wasn't scared and... that's all: "Gazprom's loss in 2023 amounted to 629 billion rubles. against profit a year earlier. Gazprom in 2023 received a net loss under IFRS in the amount of 629 bn. Rub. A year earlier, the group's profit was 1,2 trillion rubles."

    Price comparison - "how much did Europe pay and how much does China pay" or "how much money will the gas swap bring" - could be a good topic for the authors of this article.
    A comparison of the construction of gas pipelines in the USSR and the Russian Federation has already been made: in one article, Sber analysts search through Yandex for “Sberbank gas pipelines FEC” (there is a rumor that Gref personally apologized for the discovery of these simple secrets).

    That's it, citizens: there is no “gas superpower”. Get ready for increases in taxes, utilities, and other ways to replenish the budget.
    But not everything is so sad!
    "You know who" friends are covered in chocolate: as Forbes writes "02 April 2024. The number of Russian billionaires in the Forbes world ranking has grown over the year from 110 to 125 people. This is the highest result in the history of the list of the world's richest businessmen. The previous record for the number of Russians in the ranking was recorded in 2021 - 123 people.
    The total wealth of Russian billionaires increased by 14% over the year, to $576,8 billion
    "
    1. 0
      4 July 2024 12: 13
      Before that, everyone wrote how good it would be to get off the oil and gas needle
      1. +1
        4 July 2024 12: 19
        Those who wrote about this believed that it was necessary to receive more income from other types of activities.

        But there is no income from “other types of activities” yet, there is no longer a “gas needle”, and no one will say how much we will be on the “oil needle” at not the best prices/conditions.
        1. +1
          4 July 2024 12: 31
          Now prices for gas and oil are not the lowest, no one knows what will happen next, prices may soar or may even fall due to the global crisis
  5. 0
    4 July 2024 09: 39
    The West is very concerned about the growth of our oil and gas budget revenues; in June alone, the increase was more than 50% compared to last year - $9,4 billion. In the West, they know how to count other people’s money. So we should be happy that stocks are growing.
  6. 0
    4 July 2024 11: 07
    Yes, sir.
    a good mine with a bad game ...