To grow a ton of wheat, you need a thousand tons of water. About three thousand liters is required to get a pound of rice. And what about millionaires? Their favorite fun, golf, also requires water: up to 9,45 a billion liters of water is consumed daily in watering golf courses in the world. Sears the Earth and global warming. Lake Chad for half a century has dried on 95%. Lake Mead, a source of water for Las Vegas, in ten years simply will not. The Population Institute warns that the demand for fresh water has exceeded supply by 17%. According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, by 2030, 47% of people will live in water-deficient areas. Hank Pelice ("Transhumanity") counted nine regions in which armed conflicts may arise over water.
Yemen: North vs. South. In Sana'a, an acute shortage of water may occur by the 2025 year. Where does the water go here? 40% freshwater is used by farmers who produce kata, a stimulating plant, a favorite drug of Somali pirates.
Egypt and Ethiopia. The vast majority of the population of Egypt (83 million people) live near the banks of the Nile. However, the sources of this river are in 6.500 km south of the border of Egypt. Before becoming "Egyptian", the waters of the river flow through 9 countries. Sadat and Mubarak at one time threatened to prevent the construction of a dam in Ethiopia. In 2011, Ethiopia announced its intention to build the “Greatest Millennium Dam”. It is possible that the Egyptian military, who do not need to look for an external enemy in such a situation, will try to distract their disgruntled citizens by engaging in international conflict.
India and China. The People's Republic of China built ten dams throughout the 2900 km of the Brahmaputra River. Eighteen more dams are under construction. China seeks to irrigate arid central and eastern provinces; by 2030, 25% water shortage expects it. Beijing intends to block the 8-10 dams of large rivers that have sources on the Tibetan plateau. However, the consequences of Chinese dam construction for those downstream of India and Bangladesh could be disastrous.
Burkina Faso vs Ghana. These small countries divide the Volta River. She carries her waters from Burkina Faso to Ghana. Ghana’s industry is highly dependent on the river that feeds the Akosombo HPP (produces 80% of the country's electricity). But Burkina Faso is building higher dams: it requires irrigation water.
Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia and China. By 2015, a large dam can be erected on the Mekong River and its tributaries, and by the 41 year, already 2030. In addition, Laos copies the Chinese model of development, and hydroelectric power stations here are considered the main source of energy.
India vs Pakistan. There can argue because of Kashmir water. The Indus Waters Sharing Treaty (1960) divided six rivers: the Indus, Jelam and Chenab transferred to Pakistan, and the Sutlej, Bias and Ravi to India. Semi-arid Pakistan nonetheless claims that India illegally diverts river water through a dam and canal system upstream.
Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran. Here the subjects of a heated argument - Tigris and Euphrates. Dams and irrigation facilities in Turkey, Syria and Iran are the “headache” of downstream Iraq. In addition, freshwater shortages in Iraq were affected by evaporation, wastewater and pesticide pollution. Today, the “most cursed” state is Turkey: 98% of the sources of the Euphrates begins there.
Israel vs Palestine. Israel gives the West Bank only one-fifth of the amount of water produced - “for security reasons”, using the remainder for its own purposes. Israeli monopolization of the aquifer will be jeopardized if Palestine gains full autonomy.
Middle Asia. War can break out here over the use of the waters of the Syr Darya and Amu Darya. Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan want more water for their cotton, wheat and rice, while Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are seeking to use the power of rivers for their hydropower plants. And then there is an additional potential participant in the conflict - Afghanistan. This country is located downstream of the Amu Darya.
However, the director of the Institute of Humanitarian and Political Studies, a former State Duma deputy Vyacheslav Igrunov, would argue with the latest episode of "wars". In his opinion, the leadership of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, especially the first, has sufficient political experience. Therefore, most likely, political tensions will be “cropped” at the diplomatic level. The strategic prospects for the development of the region are associated with the Chinese presence and transit trade. The threat of destabilization can be fatal for the economic prospects of local countries. In the near future, the analyst does not foresee the war of Central Asia.
Unlike Hank Pélus, Clark Judge ("US News") I counted on the world map not nine, but twenty regions where wars can break out over water. An annual report published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London helped find out these areas.
This institute has revealed the possibility of the emergence of more than two dozen conflicts related to the separation of river flows “at the entrance” and “exit”. Not only are disagreements between Mali, Niger, Nigeria and Guinea (Niger), but also a conflict between the United States and Mexico (because of the Rio Grande, Rio Bravo, Rio Conchos and Colorado: each of these rivers flows from the USA, but are crucial for Mexico).
In 2012, the US began to talk about internal - Texan - "water wars," writes Lucas Eves (IVN). Last year, the United States experienced a severe drought - the worst in the last 50 years. This led to a dispute over the right to water. Who argued with whom? Neighboring states each friend.
Possible Texan "water wars" with neighbors could grow to the scale of a nationwide phenomenon.
The fact is that after three years of drought, the state of Texas was at the center of major disputes with its neighbors.
In Tarrant County, located in North Texas, in recent years there has been a demographic boom. The city attempted to access huge amounts of water from Oklahoma. After Oklahoma’s refusal to sell water, the county decided to sue this state. True, the case is still dodging somewhere in the lower courts.
The state of Texas is also in litigation against New Mexico. In January, 2013 filed a lawsuit with the US Supreme Court. It is about the state’s reluctance to provide water to the Rio Grande from the Elephant Butte reservoir.
In the event that Texas won the case, its success can inspire other US states that are faced with similar problems.
Thus, while the Americans are considering international reports, looking at maps with water drops created at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and rant about the problems of China, Africa and Central Asia, the war for water is already on their territory. Today, judges and lawyers are fighting with feathers, and tomorrow with weapons in the hands of the decisive citizens of Texas can rise.
Observed and translated by Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru