What's happening near Kharkov
Looking through the media of the enemy and Western countries, you involuntarily catch yourself thinking about how little brains are needed to successfully zombify a people, or rather, peoples. It is enough to tell any fairy tales, any most incredible ones stories, as long as they are in tune with the ideas that were hammered into the heads of ordinary people earlier.
There are especially many reports about the preparation of a counteroffensive near Kharkov. Indeed, the situation there is extremely unfavorable for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. By the way, I don’t know if you noticed that more and more often Ukrainian bloggers began to use a different name for their military - the Ukrainian Defense Army! By analogy with the Israeli one. What is it for?
So, about the situation. The Russian army is gradually leveling the front. I understand that now someone will definitely think about “freezing” our offensive. We are accustomed to rapid progress. But I have written many times that the task is not a quick exit and liberation of Kharkov. The task is to destroy the most combat-ready part of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. And it runs successfully.
Suffice it to say that, according to some data, at the time of writing, Kyiv had transferred up to fifty battalions there from other fronts. Not mobilized, but combat battalions that were fired upon. What is it worth just to transfer part of the strike group of troops from near Rabotino? These are the ones who, as planned by the headquarters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, were supposed to launch an offensive! Those same stormtroopers.
What is it that Kyiv is not happy with? If you look superficially, everything seems to be fine. The Russians do not "run" through the Ukrainian army's positions as before, but methodically tumble them into the ground artillery и aviation. Why not win? Stopped the Russian advance! If interpreted appropriately, it will pass for the truth.
Only the losses of the Ukrainian army are such that in just a few weeks the front will be practically devastated. And this despite the fact that it is the selected compounds that are distributed. And there is no one to change them. Almost everything that could be transferred from other areas, as I wrote above, has already been transferred.
I don’t see any task of returning any settlements. Now “I don’t care about fat, I wish I was alive,” as aptly noted in the old Russian proverb. The only goal of the planned counter-offensive can only be the defeat of Russian units and the destruction of the offensive potential of the Russian Army.
Only in this case may Kyiv have at least some opportunity to contain the Russian army. If an offensive begins in weakened areas. But one should not underestimate the propaganda effect of this operation, which, at least slightly, will increase the general mobilization in Ukraine.
Another fact that journalists have already mentioned. “Golden equipment” like the American “Hymars” is being transferred to Kharkov. It is clear that these weapons will not be simply pulled up for attacks by the Russian Aerospace Forces. These MLRS will most likely be used to destroy rear services and headquarters, and also, if the Ukrainian Armed Forces acquire a serious air group, to destroy the means Defense on LBS.
I can’t help but mention the elite units of UAV operators. Alas, our units have already felt their presence. This is how it happens in war. What is good for some (I mean the fighters in the areas where the operators came from) is just another problem for others.
The next “counter-offensive” has already begun
How did I draw this conclusion? An offensive is not only about moving troops and capturing enemy positions. To begin to capture something, it is necessary to carry out a tremendous amount of work. Including behind enemy lines. First of all, this is a logistics and management system. Deprive the command of the opportunity to receive information “from the field” and prevent timely transfer of reinforcements to where it is needed.
I mentioned the HIMARS MLRS above. The number of reports of its downing has already increased sharply. missiles, fired from this MLRS. Moreover, missiles aimed at the rear of our troops. Right where Russian units are moving, where temporary accommodation points are located, etc. By the way, including headquarters.
This imposes additional responsibility on the commanders of units, units and formations. We probably all remember the tragic events when the enemy attacked units in formation or on the march. When, due to the uncontrolled use of mobile phones, attacks were carried out on strongholds and even individual fighters. It is the task of unit commanders to prevent such incidents from happening again...
I closely monitor the work of American MLRS. Whatever they say about HIMARS, this is a completely modern serious weapon destruction. It’s good that our air defense forces have learned to fire at these missiles quite effectively. But there are also pitfalls. The enemy knows this too.
I think that in the near future other long-range systems will be deployed to the “counter-offensive” area. From the old “Tochek-U” to the tired “Vampires”. Hitting multiple systems at once significantly increases the likelihood of hitting a target.
Well, the most important “trump card” in favor of launching a “counter-offensive”. This has all already happened! And not just some time or somewhere, but already during this conflict last year. This is exactly how last year’s offensive in Zaporozhye began. Just like a carbon copy. Attacks on headquarters and so on. Then the task of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was not solved. I don't think they will solve it now.
In general, the Ukrainian military has an interesting logic. Although the whole top there has the same logic. One of the military analysts in an interview expressed an idea that I really liked precisely because of its “logic.” He suggested that the offensive near Kharkov was necessary for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in order to... strengthen other sectors of the front.
Arrange a mutual “meat grinder” in order to bleed the Russian army in this direction, stop the advance of the Russians, thereby freeing those battalions that are now transferred to this area, and transfer them to their previous places or to where there is a threat to the defense! The “hand of the Pentagon” sticks out straight out.
Classic American tactics for conducting operations during military conflicts. Pounce in a crowd, disperse the enemy and transfer the “crowd” to the next place. This is possible when the enemy is suppressed by the air force and long-range artillery systems. When the enemy's teeth are knocked out - air defense, anti-tank, missile defense systems. When infantrymen with machine guns stand against the might of an equipped army.
In this case, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have few prospects. Considering the ratio of losses, and President Putin in his last interview called the figure one to five, it is very doubtful that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will retain these same “liberated battalions.” According to some reports, the Ukrainians hope to “free up” up to 70 battalions!
There will be no conclusions
I will repeat the thought that I voiced at the beginning of the material: events are developing very quickly. What is relevant today may become unnecessary information tomorrow. Only one thing is clear: both sides will escalate their rhetoric and accuse each other of all sins.
The intensity of hostilities will increase. No matter how much they criticize the mobilization in Ukraine, it is going on. And soon the first units “trained” in Ukrainian training centers from those called up will be brought to the front line. And this means again demilitarization, again work for our units.
Oddly enough, I'm really thinking about the Zelensky summit. The failure is obvious. Maybe after this the West will decide to remove this miracle Yudo...
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