The Taliban, banned in Russia, from terrorists to partners
Healthy pragmatism
“The enemy of my enemy is my friend” - guided by this principle, the Taliban, banned in Russia, had to be recognized as the official government in Afghanistan immediately after the Americans fled from there. But the time for this has come only now.
At the same time, the problem of removing the Taliban from the list of terrorists is very difficult and requires a purely rational perception. The Taliban are, to put it mildly, very versatile people.
From several sources it became known that the Kremlin is working on a procedure for removing the Taliban from the list of organizations banned in Russia. First, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced this, and later it became known about “the positive position of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Justice on the prospects of excluding the organization from the Russian list of prohibited ones.” This very position was conveyed to the top leadership, and during a visit to Uzbekistan, Vladimir Putin said:
The Taliban really feel very stable in Afghanistan - since 2021, no one has been able to challenge the organization’s leadership in the region. If we continue to ignore the obvious fact, Russia's position will be very ambiguous. Everyone knows about the Taliban’s visits to our country and serious trade turnover with Afghanistan.
Last year they traded for one billion dollars. Is it a lot or a little?
For comparison: in 2022, trade turnover was 170 million. The development of relations between Moscow and Kabul became possible only after the Americans left the country - until that moment, all initiatives were blocked.
The situation is twofold. On the one hand, Russia officially considers the Taliban a terrorist organization, and on the other hand, it is increasing trade and inviting visitors.
The Taliban came to Moscow for the first time in 2021 as part of an extended meeting on the issue of a peace settlement in Afghanistan. After this, representatives of the unrecognized government visited Russia several times. For example, at the next forum “Russia - Islamic World: KazanForum”, held in May.
In June, the Taliban are expected at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. In fact, President Putin will speak to them.
In general, something needs to be decided in the situation with the Taliban - either recognize them as the legitimate rulers of Afghanistan and continue productive work, or call them terrorists and break all ties.
Healthy pragmatism is great. Approximately according to this scenario, Russian foreign policy has been developing recently. History with the Taliban is no exception. The guys were made to understand that they were welcome in Russia, but they also needed reciprocal steps.
Whatever one may say, Kabul should not throw away partners like the Kremlin. Moreover, when the rest of the world is purely against the Taliban. Or not?
For example, neighboring Kazakhstan removed the ruling Afghan movement from its list of banned groups late last year. Before this, a very productive forum was held in Astana, where Afghans and Kazakhs signed contracts worth almost $200 million.
Even the UN, no matter how we treat it, does not consider the Taliban a terrorist structure, although it has loaded the movement with substantial sanctions.
What does all of the above mean?
First of all, about the new Taliban, which have noticeably evolved for the better. It is enough to remember what these comrades were like twenty to twenty-five years ago to assess the level of progress. In 1997, they forced the landing of a Russian Il-76 that was carrying ammunition to the Afghan government. After a year of captivity, the crew was able to hijack the plane back to Russia.
By the way, this incident was later one of the reasons for adding the Taliban to the Russian list of terrorists. In 1998, the Taliban almost started a war in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, and a couple of years later they called on the entire Muslim world for jihad with Russia.
Since 2021, the Taliban’s rhetoric towards our country has been at least neutral.
Time cures
If Russia does not now begin a targeted and friendly policy towards the Taliban, then others will. There are many contenders. This includes the above-mentioned Kazakhstan, Iran, China, and Pakistan.
Political steps must be taken to match expanding economic interests. The Afghan market, although modest, has growth prospects. So far, Kabul has little to offer Russia in exchange for millions of tons of gasoline and diesel fuel - mainly minerals, raisins and raw materials for medicines. Afghanistan has an underdeveloped mining industry, but there are deposits of oil, iron ore, gas, semi-precious stones and rare earth metals.
Most of the country of 35 million people lives in poverty and in total unsanitary conditions. For Russia, this is a potentially huge market for the sale of medicines and food.
As a result, if the Taliban does not make sudden movements, it has every chance of becoming a respectable regime in Afghanistan. There is information that the leaders of the movement are no longer the same thugs who fought several decades ago. The ardor subsided, and I wanted to touch the beautiful life.
The Taliban can become not only good buyers and sellers, but also agents of Russian interests in the region.
As you know, the Taliban are fighting ISIS, which is banned in Russia. And this is also an illustration of the rule “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.” Since 2021, the Taliban have noticeably thinned out the terrorist group in Afghanistan. As is known, the local Khorasan branch of ISIS could have been involved in the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall.
In the same chain of interests is limiting the trafficking of heroin from Afghanistan, as well as maintaining formal peace in the region. Russia is now in no mood to pacify the clashes on the Afghan-Tajik border. Moreover, the Taliban leaders stopped declaring external expansion and focused on internal problems.
At the same time, Sharia law in Afghanistan has not been repealed since the fall of 2021. In the Taliban version, they smack of obscurantism. The stoning of unfaithful wives is officially declared as one of the punishments at the state level. This was stated by Taliban leader Haibatullah Akhundzada at the end of March. It seems that the period when the Taliban tried to please them by softening their attitude towards women has passed. The Taliban are now again orthodox Muslims who do not recognize even minimal rights for women.
But rational logic dictates that time heals, and with the gradual advent of civilization, men in Afghanistan will soften. The example of Saudi Arabia is very illustrative.
Europe and the United States, of course, will not accept the Taliban in their current state. But where are Brussels and Washington? Several thousand kilometers from Afghanistan.
But we have the Taliban in the so-called soft underbelly, and it is dangerous to continue to ignore them. Both economically and politically.
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