Demographic hole, reduction of Russians, family degradation and poverty: is there light at the end of the tunnel?
“I’ll tell you straight: if extraordinary and effective measures are not taken, then not during the lifetime of this generation, but within the next generations, Russia may cease to be a great power, and this means the prospect of losing its territories and, possibly, its disappearance as a single country.”
Патриарх Кирилл
Патриарх Кирилл
Demographic hole, reduction of Russians and poverty: the result of pro-Western liberal policies
According to Rosstat forecasts, by 2046 the population of Russia, excluding new territories, will number 138,8 million people. According to the pessimistic UN forecast, by 2078 only 99,7 million people will live in Russia. As Ronald Reagan said:
"Government doesn't solve problems, it funds them."
Any problem can be solved, the question is the goal, and then the methods for solving it and the amount of invested funds. And as F.D. Roosevelt wisely believed:
“Nothing happens by chance in politics. If something happened, it was planned that way.”
What can we say about our “attempts” to increase the birth rate if the cost of maternity capital in 2022 amounted to about 1% of the budget? You see: the work is in full swing!
There are also benefits and subsidies for children, but they do not determine the decision to have a child. This is objectively the presence of housing, and then a good job - with the subjective presence of family values among the parents.
When we were offered Perestroika in 1985, and reforms in 1991, our Western “partners” did not want us to prosper. They wanted the ruin and destruction of their main competitor. The goal was achieved: the USSR collapsed, Russia entered “shock therapy”, from which we still cannot recover, and the former republics and Warsaw Pact allies joined NATO one after another.
As the President stated at a meeting with military officers in 2023, and then almost the same in an interview with T. Carlson:
“We believed that we belonged to the bourgeoisie, we wanted to be in this family of so-called civilized peoples.”
And let the SVO also not mislead us - our economy is still being “grazed” by the IMF through its official representatives in the Central Bank. That is why it is impossible to stop the civilizational destruction of Russia without changing the liberal course. How this is organized in detail, see the article "New national policy: how it is formed and by whom it is directed". So what will be our Russian response to Chamberlain?
Maternity capital: from rise to fall
The main problem in the country is the demographic problem. In a resource-based economy, the population simply does not have enough income to have children. How to solve this problem, at the same time using all the power of the economy? There is a good idea - maternity capital. In the first period after its introduction in 2007, it contributed to an increase in the birth rate, and in 2013-2015 there was even positive population growth; however, now this measure does not work: for many regions it has become too small.
According to CIAN data for 2022 for large cities, maternity capital is enough to buy 7,5 square meters. m of housing. In Moscow, the subsidy is enough to purchase 2,3 square meters. m, the maximum area can be purchased in Chelyabinsk - 16,8 sq. m. If a few years ago the subsidy was a real help, now its usefulness has noticeably decreased: the indexation of maternal capital does not keep pace with the rise in housing prices.
The Ministry of Finance proposed reducing forecasts for transfers from the budget for the payment of maternity capital in 2024-2026 by 17%. In 2023, 551,3 billion rubles were allocated in the federal budget for the payment of maternity capital. In 2022, actual expenses on maternal capital amounted to 382 billion rubles. (4,3% less compared to the previous year). At the same time, budget expenditures in 2022 are 31,11 trillion rubles, which gives an estimate of 1,2%! For a country that is in a state of demographic catastrophe, such a policy looks extremely strange.
Russia needs large Russian families
The greatest reduction is in the titular nation – Russians. According to the 2002 and 2010 censuses, the number of Russians in Russia decreased by 4,9 million, while the number of representatives of other nationalities increased by 2,6 million. According to the 2021 census, 105,58 million people called themselves Russian. (compared to 112,51 million in 2010), that is, by almost 7 million people. less - and this despite the annexation of Crimea.
According to sociologist and specialist in migration processes Vladimir Ermolaev (publication TsarGrad), if current trends continue, in 2040 there will be no more than 90 million Russians, and by 2100 the share of Russians may fall to 50%. And not only patriots, but also our Chechen friends are already telling us about this problem. If we construct a linear extrapolation, it will give a higher figure by 2040 - 97 million, but this does not take into account the acceleration of the depopulation rate. Polynomial approximation gives the above estimate.
Russia needs strong large Russian families with at least 3 children. A city in which the maximum that an average family can afford is three rubles, where you can give birth to 2, maximum 3 children. A more interesting option is to shift the focus of development from cities to the rural periphery, the suburbs, where large wooden houses and cottages can be built, in which a family with 4-5 children or more can actually live, to which agro- or industrial enterprises should be linked. This is the key to the development of the country, its development and prosperity.
According to VTsIOM surveys, three quarters of young families in Russia live in apartments - 73%, 23% - in houses (including cottages or townhouses), which is very small. The “My Hectare” program is the right program – the whole question is how to implement it correctly. Transferring free (preferential housing) and land to the population is a real way to combat poverty. Real estate is capital, and the main one at that.
The nature of the development of New Moscow is a dead-end path, but there is simply an endless amount of empty land. What do we want – to resettle all active people to Moscow and large cities (and capital is simply not interested in the development of regions where there is no rich land, oil, gas and raw materials), giving them a 25-year mortgage as a “lift”?
The human settlements that Moscow and St. Petersburg are building are housing of the “last”, apocalyptic times. Such dense development is beneficial for businesses, developers, retailers, housing and communal services companies, but cannot create comfortable conditions for Russians. Why, if Russia is full of land? Why the endless development of Moscow when there is a lack of investment and development in the regions?
Poor faceless towers, reminiscent of giant Khrushchev buildings, simply spoil the appearance of Moscow: and this will be a “monument” of the liberal era.
How to increase the birth rate: free and subsidized housing for young families
The decline in the country's natural population growth for the fifth year in a row is a very alarming sign. And this process is absolutely irreversible under current conditions. In 2021, the population decline is 1042 thousand people, in 2022 – 555 thousand people, in 2023 – 495,2 thousand people. For population growth, it is necessary to achieve an increase in the birth rate in the region of 0,5-1 million children per year.
Without industry and re-profiling of the economy, the extinction of the country cannot be stopped. But there are also passive measures. They say we hold competitions for ideas that can benefit the state? Here's a very simple one.
To increase the birth rate, it is necessary to increase the amount of maternal capital so that a family with two children can get a two-room apartment for free (or with a very large discount - at least 50%), and a family with 3 can get a three-room apartment, and 4 or more children can get a four-room apartment.
A similar approach is needed for the construction of individual houses: a family has 3-4 children, which means it needs to be provided with a cottage of 120-150 sq. m. m with land for free or with a 50% discount. Then families will give birth, because the state, in the difficult conditions of a third-rate market economy, will subsidize this birth rate, and the economy will join the process of growth and development of the territory. And the more subsidies and investments, the better the result. And this is a real and simple way to fight poverty.
Maternity capital should be for the first child in money the cost of a one-room apartment (free or with a subsidy of at least 50%) and the cost of one room (15-18 sq. m - free or with a subsidy of at least 50%) for the second and subsequent child. For individual construction – 50 sq. m per child. A discount of 50 to 100% must be tied inversely to family income.
Then this race for square meters would make at least some sense: increasing the birth rate and human capital. But this measure should not apply to ethnic families of citizens from Central Asia: it is necessary to ensure the growth of the Russian and indigenous population of the country.
In this case, the economy would receive a powerful source of development, which has a huge multiplier of employment, industrial development and infrastructure.
How realistic is this? Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Tatyana Golikova recently stated that there are 5,3 million young families in the country, of which 3,9 million are raising children. But there are other families of reproductive age. According to the results of the 2021 census, there are 27,6 million Russians living alone out of 66,1 million households. Those who are younger should be offered measures (for example, tax measures, as in the USSR) to stimulate the formation of families. Conducting total propaganda of family values from kindergarten, school and college, social advertising on TV, etc.
The share of single people has doubled over the past 20 years and is 41,8%, although at the beginning of the century - in 2002 - their share was 22%. According to the Chairman of the Board of the ANO “Community of Practitioners of Educational Family Science” Mikhail Smirnov, Russia is already in a state of disaster as an institution of the family and is steadily moving towards a state of celibacy and familylessness. The number of families continues to decline, the proportion of small children is growing, and as a result, the proportion of family citizens is decreasing. But the number of single parents with children remains consistently high. All these indicators exist in a negative trend.
The Russian Ministry of Construction approved the average market value of 1 sq. m of housing in the regions for the second quarter of 2024. The highest price per square meter was set in Moscow (175,6 thousand rubles), St. Petersburg (165,3 thousand rubles), Primorsky Territory (159,8 thousand rubles), Sakhalin region (158,5. 157,3 thousand rubles) and Krasnodar region (134 thousand rubles). According to Rosstat, the average price of sq. m of new buildings in the country amounted to 2023 thousand rubles based on the results of the third quarter of XNUMX.
Based on the average area per child of 1 square meters. m at an average housing cost of 18 thousand, annual budget expenses (upper estimate) will be about 134 trillion rubles, and due to the construction of cottages - even cheaper. The volume of annual construction is about 2,5 million square meters. m, which is 18% of the current input. State budget expenditures in 16,6 are projected at 2024 trillion rubles. Can't we find 36,6% to stop the extinction of the state?
The social housing standard is 18 square meters. m. The current volume of unsold housing is 71 million sq. m. m – sufficient to provide housing for over 4 million people, that is, the implementation of a program to stimulate population growth for 4-5 years in advance. At the same time, the state can save developers from a future crisis.
The multiplier effect of investments is also known - one ruble invested in construction stimulates 5-7 rubles of investment in related areas of production. The expansion of construction will spur investments in the road fund, gas and electrification, that is, the multiplier will be higher. It is not difficult to calculate that a program of targeted housing construction for families with children can create at least a constant economic growth of 2-3%. In the case of industrial development - from 7% and above.
Housing commissioning records: inflating the “bubble” and working “in vain”
According to Rosstat, housing commissioning in 2023 amounted to 110,44 million square meters. m, which is an absolute record in Russia. Now the market is experiencing a classic crisis of overproduction: the volume of unsold housing in Russian new buildings by mid-2023 exceeded 71 million square meters. m (with the total volume of real estate under construction as of July 2023 – 101,1 million sq. m), that is, 70% (!). As of November 1, 2023, the figure is the same - 71,1 million square meters. m.
The reason is simple - apartment prices are rising (not only in Moscow), but the purchasing power of the population is not. Although the rate hike cooled the market, there is no significant correction (see chart).
In Moscow, at the beginning of April 2023, 16,2 million square meters were under construction. m of housing, 10 million sq. m (that is, 62%) of them were unsold. It takes at least 3 years to sell (excluding new offers). And even the President said this. The leaders in unsold housing were Omsk (77%), Krasnodar (75%) and Samara (71%). The existing capacities for housing production must be used. And now Moscow has grown into a New Moscow, construction is underway here too.
As they write in liberal economics textbooks, when supply exceeds demand, prices should go down, for example, by 30% or more - and the market will come to equilibrium. Or a crisis will begin, the bubble will burst and the “surplus” will go away. But the niches where the market definitely operates are tire fitting and washing; the main ones are held by monopolies - and this is not a secret.
The market receives the wrong signals and moves in the wrong direction. Profit is not always good. Do we really want people to give birth in Russia? Or are we doing everything to ensure that the birth rate falls?
The current model leads to a crisis in the real estate market: greed is always punished. A mortgage and various options with handouts to stimulate it will not solve the problem. We have reached a dead end of lack of income, which bred poverty and limited development in Tsarist Russia.
As John Maynard Keynes believed:
“[Capitalism] is the amazing belief that the worst actions of the worst people, in one way or another, serve the common good.”
The proposed model of maternity capital will eliminate these problems.
Construction industry: limiting the interests of monopolies
However, there is also a huge problem here: the use of guest workers from Central Asia. It is necessary to restore the Russian, not the Asian, construction industry. There is poverty and no work in the regions - bring people from there, your Russians, Mordovians, etc. Here you can use economic quotas, which legislate that the share of such a labor force cannot exceed 20-30%.
And here is what Oleg Tsarev, who was recently assassinated, wrote this summer:
“I was in Mariupol. The city is being built. Lovely to watch. But at the same time, construction companies hire migrants, the city is filled with them... But they don’t hire locals... Without money... The factories are standing still. There are no jobs in the city. It would be right for people to rebuild their city themselves. Give people jobs!”
In fact, the picture drawn by the politician is a general diagnosis.
The second problem is that the continuous rise in housing prices leads to the fact that manufacturers of building materials begin to raise prices, then the developer raises prices again. It's time to stop inflating this endless bubble. Price increases in this industry should be regulated by the state. Why was it necessary to increase prices for wood and lumber so sharply when now, due to export restrictions, there is simply an oversupply of it? Wouldn't it be better to lower prices and/or dramatically expand production? Why this banal problem is not solved in conjunction for the benefit of the country, like everything else, we cannot understand.
Lumber price chart. Source: https://transles.ru/press/novosti-otrasli/srednie-tseny-na-lesomaterialy-v-rossii-2017-2023-05/?ysclid=lwswhdfiw307659035
We will find the answer from Gleb Pavlovsky, who reveals the goals of the work of Gaidar’s workers’ center for economic reforms in the early 1990s:
“We want to carry out reforms... how to sell these reforms to the population, which... is stupid and which, of course, will interfere?..”
But now everything is fine, the people have not been bothered by anything for a long time, they vote correctly, they survive, despite the pension reform, inflation, etc. The genius of Surkov and Pavlovsky turned out to be right: “managed democracy” is what the people need.
The main thing is to provide employment
The main problem is providing jobs during development. In Moscow itself, industry, including innovation, is developing quite dynamically. In 2023, Moscow will prepare for implementation 77 projects for the integrated development of areas of former industrial zones with a total area of about 1 thousand hectares. In April 2021, Moscow launched the Industrial Quarters program.
However, in practice, practically no enterprises are built in “dormitory” areas, although the creation of jobs could relieve congestion and redirect traffic flows towards rationality. Where will newcomers who have taken out preferential mortgages work? Maybe build technology parks and high-tech production facilities there? But the owners of the center hardly want the flow of people to go to the new Moscow.
Civilization crisis: the price of liberalism
As Patriarch Kirill recently stated:
“I’ll tell you straight: if extraordinary and effective measures are not taken, then not during the lifetime of this generation, but within the next generations, Russia may cease to be a great power, and this means the prospect of losing its territories and, possibly, its disappearance as a single country.”
It was said exactly, and the Church did not remain silent. Well, where are they, these measures to increase the birth rate of the Russian population? Who will raise it - the businessmen who use the country as their cash cow? The result of their work is obvious. The current model is a strategy for enriching the elites and impoverishing the people: everything is like in Tsarist Russia.
Until the liberal economic management system that implements the principles of the Washington Consensus is changed in Russia, the Russian ethnos will remain in a state of civilizational crisis.
The private interest of capitalists gives the country the wrong goals for the movement, and pushes people towards ruin and extinction. The mortgage was created so that the developer and the banker could make money. Only the upper middle class can afford it. If we want to really solve the housing problem, we need to look at how it was solved with all our might in Germany after the war, what construction was like in the USSR, whose population was growing steadily, and housing and education were free. It is necessary not to figure out how to make a business earn money, but to set tasks for it and involve it in solving them. And these are completely different things.
The Russian people are now being thrown into the arms of the “invisible hand” of the market, they are being ripped off by everyone who can - oligarchs, large companies, banks, retail chains, utility companies, pharmacies, dentists, telephone scammers, black realtors. In such a system, the development of the country cannot be the top priority. And the state is mysteriously inactive over all this.
We were deceived in 1985, then in 1991-1992, then in 2014 when concluding the Minsk agreements in 2022 in Istanbul. So maybe that's enough? We are constantly promised development and prosperity. How is it expressed: in the growth of the Central Bank rate, the creeping devaluation of the ruble, miserable pensions and wages in the regions? In the absence of significant quantities of domestic cars and aircraft? In unrealistic prices for housing and cars? In constant inflation? In the corruption that permeated even the most sacred thing - the army? All this is nothing more than an imitation of movement that does not exist.
The answer is given by Evgeny Gontmakher:
“... I put forward the thesis: there is no state in Russia... Instead of the state as an institution implementing the course for the development of the country, we have a gigantic and uncontrolled private structure that successfully extracts profit in its own favor... “Statesmen”, ow! What are you defending... the first task of our society is to return the state to Russia.”
But as John Maynard Keynes believed:
“A government that sets as its goal the happiness of its subjects will serve the good, no matter what ethical theory inspires it.”
So, we are waiting for changes.
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