N-20 vs B-21: who wins and for how much?
Indeed, the battle between American and Chinese aircraft designers is serious, because everything that has been done recently in the United States in terms of military equipment is all done with an eye on China.
A separate topic is strategic bombers. The countries are in approximately equal positions: the main striking force of the strategic aviation The USA is still the B-52, and in the PLA Air Force this role is played by the N-6, which is essentially a very heavily modernized Soviet Tu-16. In between, the United States has B-1 and B-2, but with both the first and second things are not as smooth as the Americans would like. And speaking recently about B-2s, there are not so many of them (19 left) to have a significant impact on the confrontation between the United States and China.
But there is confrontation. In the USA they talk about this openly and constantly, that all efforts are aimed at ensuring that the American army can resist the Chinese when the time comes. The PRC does not make such statements, but this does not mean that they think differently there.
So, in principle, today the countries are at parity in terms of strategic aviation, that is, the main weapons are outright old, but there is a prospect. The Americans are hard at work on the B-21, the Chinese are working on the H-20. But the Americans are clearly a little ahead, since they are already assembling the first ten aircraft, but it is very difficult to say what the situation is with their neighbors, because in the Middle Kingdom they know how to keep secrets. But it is quite possible that assembly is already underway there; you might not see anything like that from your Chinese comrades.
How much does this bother the gentlemen from overseas? It doesn't seem to be very strong.
A Pentagon intelligence official told Breaking Defense's Michael Murrow that China's H-20 bomber is "not really" a concern for the U.S. military. The words, which echo previous statements made by US defense officials about China's J-20 stealth fighter, come as the new bomber remains under wraps with few concrete details about its appearance or capabilities.
In general, the situation is twofold: either intelligence has found out something about the Chinese planes, which allows the Americans to feel absolutely calm, or, on the contrary, there is a good mine in a bad game.
Here, as a reproach to American intelligence officers, one can reproach the absolutely disastrous work on the Chinese destroyer cruiser Project 055: at one time, the Americans “played, but did not guess” either the displacement, or the power-to-weight ratio, or the ship’s performance. It was, frankly speaking, not very good.
However, the American side’s statements regarding the N-20, made after analyzing the PLA Air Force video filmed in 2021, are more than optimistic. The Americans seriously believe that their developments in the field of stealth LO aircraft are far ahead of similar developments by Chinese engineers. And they are so sure of this that the N-20 is not the object of close attention and at least some concern that you inevitably begin to think that the American intelligence officers missed the mark somewhere.
Of course, in aircraft manufacturing, China does not demonstrate such breakthrough successes as, say, in shipbuilding, but there are no problems with domestically designed and assembled aircraft (unlike India).
American sources say that, according to their data, Chinese engineers have encountered certain engineering problems, the solution of which is delaying the commissioning of the new aircraft.
While these claims are sparse in detail, they do suggest that China may indeed have had some problems developing the H-20's stealth capabilities. Or at least the resulting low-profile qualities won't come close to matching those of the B-21 or even the soon-to-be 2-year-old B-35. Given the head start the United States has in this regard, this shouldn't be that much of a surprise.
On the other hand, the light, of course, did not converge like a wedge on stealth. The question is what is better, stealth or super-maneuverability for a fighter or, speaking of bombers, stealth or speed. It is clear that stealth is the most important thing for a bomber, but the practice of using the Tu-160 suggests that speed is no less important than stealth, since it allows you to quickly reach the launch line and quickly get out of there. But intercepting or catching up with a bomber that can reach speeds of up to 2 km/h may be more difficult than detecting a stealth aircraft. Because although it is small, it is noticeable. But I won’t tell you how, say, on an F/A-200 of any modification that produces a maximum speed of 18 km/h to catch up with the Tu-1. Maximum speed, not maximum speed – but 900 km/h is an abyss.
It is no less difficult to say anything about a Chinese aircraft than about the same B-21, since Chinese secrecy is something masterpiece. And all that can be said about it today is that it is as close in appearance as possible to the B-2/B-21 “flying wing” concept.
However, it was in 2024 that the Chinese military promised to show the aircraft. I think they will show it, because how in the PRC they punish for failing to meet the expectations of the party and people is not worth talking about. That’s why it’s a stuffed animal, a carcass, but they’ll show it.
And this will be a very significant event in the world of aviation, since the N-20 is still the second strategic stealth bomber in the world after the American one, and others, it must be said, are not yet expected. You can confidently put an end to the PAK DA project; it practically does not exist even on paper.
So the Chinese and Americans are the ones who were able to build a strategic strike aircraft created according to the “flying wing” concept. The question is the quality and quantity necessary to solve the tasks set by the General Staffs of both countries, because whatever one may say, a strategic bomber is weapon not defensive at all, but quite the opposite.
American analysts have already given out their calculations: for a full-fledged conflict with the PLA, the US armed forces will need about 250-270 B-21 bombers and up to 60-70 B-52.
Considering that the initial plans for 100 B-21 aircraft are somewhat behind this figure, even the Pentagon’s latest adjustment to the number of Riders to 145 still looks like a half-measure. And it is very strange that in all the calculations B-1 and B-2 are absolutely absent.
In general, while small-scale production is underway with an eye to full-fledged army tests, we can say that the United States will not be able to equip its Air Force with the required number of aircraft to confront China before 10 years. That is, the Chinese still have time.
As for when we'll finally see the H-20, that also remains unclear, although a Chinese military official said last month that it would be unveiled soon, according to a report in state-run newspaper Hong Kong Commercial Daily.
In general, the term “near future” is not very precise. But there have been hints from Beijing in the past that the H-20 may appear sooner rather than later. As early as July 2022, the Global Times (a division of People’s Daily) and the Chinese news The Guancha website (an independent portal with an overtly nationalistic bent) reported that China was preparing to conduct flight tests of a new aircraft, presumably the H-20, in the very near future.
A month later, in August 2022, images emerged showing a wind tunnel test specimen, a model used primarily to test the aerodynamic properties of aircraft structures.
Aviation expert Andreas Rupprecht, who specializes specifically in China, said that the model has at least some relation to official research conducted on the H-20. He also noted that there were likely several different studies that led to the development of the bomber.
By that time, images of the new Chinese bomber appeared on renderings, some of them were official. There is no guarantee that they correspond to the appearance of the actual aircraft, although it is widely believed that they are probably at least loosely accurate.
In January 2021, the first official rendering of the supposed H-20, which appeared in an official recruitment video for the People's Liberation Army Air Force, created a lot of buzz. The photo showed an aircraft hidden by a tarpaulin, behind which, however, the configuration of a “flying wing” could be discerned.
In general, the Chinese have been “training” the world expert community for a long time, either with videos in which there were hints of the N-20, or with computer graphics that depicted something similar to the B-2. There have even been accusations against the state-owned Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC), of which XAC is a subsidiary, that they are passing off Northrop Grumman Superbowl images as their own.
But here the Chinese are just great: for so long they have not “burned” their plane, without giving the slightest opportunity to find out even the slightest details about the configuration of the N-20. In principle, the confirmation of American intelligence is more than enough to draw conclusions that the N-20 is something similar to the B-2.
How effective can all the work of Chinese designers be? Maybe. In China, in addition to low-profile shock drones type GJ-11 Sharp Sword have already created two fighters with a stealth configuration. Yes, these works are smaller in size than a bomber, but nevertheless, much of what was implemented could easily be used in large structures.
Serrated air intakes, anti-radar coatings, fuselage shapes and much more that could be useful in creating a large and stealthy aircraft. Especially an aircraft with a “flying wing” shape.
The main problem of such machines is flight stability caused by the lack of vertical tail. This really greatly reduces visibility, on the other hand, it creates significant problems in control. But a strategic bomber is not a machine characterized by sharp maneuvers and aerobatics. A calm and unhurried flight, launch/reset and the way back, if there is one, to where at that moment - that’s the whole job of a strategic bomber. In terms of the level of active maneuvering, it is practically no different from a UAV, so God himself ordered the use of various developments from past periods for aircraft.
In general, the creation of a “flying wing” by Chinese engineers is a feat of labor. Jumping from the Tu-16, which comes from the 50s of the last century, through designs like the Tu-160 and B-2 directly to the B-21, is very difficult. This is truly in the spirit of shock communist labor. The only question is how effective these efforts will be.
Having suffered through both iterations of the B-1, Lockheed specialists came up with a unique hybrid design, which they implemented during the Advanced Technology Bomber program, as a result of which the B-2 was born.
The Chinese certainly had their eye on everything they could get their hands on and made some advances in the H-20 design, including (possibly) folding vertical tail fins with variable tilt geometry that would overcome some of the problems during low speed flight. , and will also reduce visibility and increase efficiency in cruising mode.
But there is still a long way to go to directly assess the performance characteristics and performance characteristics of aircraft. Today it is more appropriate to talk about how quickly and for how long countries can provide for themselves fleets strategic bombers. And at what price?
We know the figure announced by the Pentagon. 145 units. The cost of one aircraft is 700 million dollars, and another 50 billion was spent on development. In total - 151 billion dollars for all the fun.
It’s difficult to even guess how much the N-20 will cost, but if we take into account the cost of developing and building another “twenty”, that is, the J-20, then we can assume that the Chinese aircraft is unlikely to be much cheaper than its American counterpart. The J-20 somehow managed to beat the F-35 in terms of price, selling for $110 million.
It is logical to assume that a rather large machine weighing 200 tons will have a decent load. From the experts’ conjectures, two figures emerged: between 10 tons of payload for the N-6 and 27 tons for the V-2.
Naturally, the plane will be subsonic. It is clear and understandable that it will carry less than the Tu-160 and not at the same speed. It's all about the main Chinese problem - aircraft engines. If the same WS-20С or promising WS-10 are installed on the N-15, then you shouldn’t expect anything record-breaking. And, in general, China doesn’t have any other engines yet.
From all this, it is not a standard bomber, like the B-2, that is drawn, but a more multifunctional aircraft, like the B-21. Weighing about 200 tons, with a maximum speed of about 1000 km/h, and a flight range of about 8 – 8,5 thousand kilometers. It will be able to lift the specified number of weapons, plus it will have the ability to carry nuclear weapons in the form of both bombs and 6-8 winged missiles.
But in addition to all of the above, the H-20 will also have a reconnaissance function. China has a diverse arsenal of long-range air, land and sea-launched missiles, but lacks the robust intelligence network needed for precise targeting. Today, China is actively expanding its orbital satellite constellation, but it is believed that the stealthy N-20, equipped with the latest AESA radar, will be able to collect information about the enemy and transmit it via a satellite system to consumers located thousands of kilometers from the country’s borders.
If the Chinese can fit such an aircraft into the price range from $300 million (Tu-160M2) to $700 million (B-21), then it will be a very luxurious option. All that remains is to wait for official information that may shed light on the unknown parameters of the N-20.
Even if it turns out that the H-20 lacks overall stealth and other advanced features compared to the B-2 and B-21, the aircraft still represents a huge leap in capability for China. Here we should not forget that the current fleet of long-range bombers of the PLA Air Force consists of the H-6, created on the meringue of the Soviet Tu-16 of the early 1950s.
Clearly, the H-20 will have much greater capabilities as a long-range strategic platform, including as a nuclear deterrent. Or, as an option, a nuclear attack. The coast of the United States is about 10 kilometers from the Chinese, there is no talk of striking the United States, but the American bases in the Pacific Ocean could easily get the worst of it.
Of course, when it comes to weapons, China has already demonstrated some new capabilities, including air-launched ballistic missiles and seemingly tested hypersonic weapons, and quite modern cruise missiles. Armament of these classes may be adopted by the N-20 (except for ballistic missiles, of course), which will ensure an increase in the strike capabilities of the PLA Air Force.
But there is one very big nuance.
In principle, we have already calculated that the American B-21 program will cost $150 billion. That is, the total cost of one aircraft out of 145 planned for order will be about a billion dollars. Already cheaper than B-2. How much cheaper it will be for the Chinese is a question, but here’s the catch: in the United States, the use of long-range/strategic aviation has been on a grand scale since 1943. When China didn’t really have aviation. And the Americans honed their capabilities and tactics in Vietnam, Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya and other places.
Plus, the Americans’ bases on Guam and Pearl Harbor will allow them to use strategic aviation much more effectively, both in terms of refueling (both on the ground and in the air) and possible maintenance. Chinese military bases are located in the Indian Ocean and on the Pacific bridgehead, bombers with a range of 8 km will not be so effective.
The training of the crews also raises certain doubts. There are many examples from stories, when during maneuvers and exercises the armies showed excellent training and preparation, but in the subsequent war it turned out to be a complete nightmare. The same applies to the rather peace-loving PLA: Chinese soldiers do not particularly participate in military conflicts.
But this is really such a nuance, nothing more. The combat training of American bomber pilots is known, although the quality of use is very controversial.
The main question is: will the Americans be able to spend $150 billion wisely and get the 145 aircraft they are looking for? Of course yes. It's just a question of time. Will the B-21 be able to live up to the expectations placed on them? This is a very delicate question, because B-1 and B-2, according to the Americans themselves, turned out to be not very good and now 150 billion are being spent to replace them.
Could a fleet of 145 strategic bombers pose a real threat to China? Yes. Just as hundreds of B-52s once threatened everyone, so the B-21s will do the same. A new round of progress, old yeast.
And the Americans have a head start, since the first B-21s are already being assembled.
China is lagging behind, but there is little point in starting an arms race. The main thing is that Chinese planes will not be able to reach strike lines on American shores. Both due to the fact that the Pacific Ocean has been well developed by the Americans, and due to the clearly insufficient flight range of the N-20.
On the other hand, who has heard at least one statement from the Chinese side that the United States is an enemy and adversary of the PRC? Unlike Washington, Beijing is silent in this regard. But American leaders from time to time allow themselves such statements, moreover, they normally back them up with actions. And plans to build 145 strategic bombers are the best confirmation of this.
In any case, the production process will take more than 10 years in any case. And during the production process it may turn out that the B-21 is a little bit like the F-22. In terms of cost and reliability. Could this happen? In the modern States - easily.
China will drag it out until the last minute, testing everything and bringing it to condition. And then communist construction will begin. Something like it happened with the J-20: in 2017 the aircraft was put into service, and in 2023 the 200th copy was already produced.
Of course, modern strategic bombers are a very important element of the national defense of any country that can afford them. However, the emerging confrontation between the United States and China in this area evokes a completely healthy reaction in terms of understanding the timing: during the time that both countries will create fleets of modern bombers and missile carriers, very, very much can change.
However, is it worth regretting money nowadays?
Information