Attack on Kharkov or...
The holidays turned out to be quite exciting for Kyiv. Russia, however, as expected, intensified military operations in several directions at once.
On the one hand, this is nothing new, it has been like this before, almost since the beginning of the year, but on the other hand... The activation looks quite alarming. And it forces the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to transfer reserves to one point or another.
At the same time, the purpose of such activation is completely unclear. Yes, Moscow announced increased pressure on Kyiv, the need to create a buffer zone, the liberation of Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye and beyond. There were a lot of conversations, but... no one said anything concrete.
By and large, both sides are silent. Analysts, journalists, bloggers say... Kharkov is heard. “The Russians will take”, “Kharkov must be saved”, “everything possible will be evacuated from Kharkov” and so on. And all this with active video footage of hits from our art and videoconferencing. Sometimes you even get the feeling that somehow it’s all too much.
In Kyiv they are well aware that such coverage of events causes a rather alarming state of society, and even the army. The fruits of the work of the Ukrainian media are already visible. Both in the work of “bloggers from the people” and in the reaction of army units, especially those that were considered the support of the Kyiv regime, those who have “plugged holes at the front” many times already.
They understand, but the information policy does not change. Strange? I don’t think so, I think this is part of a long-developed plan. By whom and when it doesn’t matter. The main thing is that it exists and information about it has long been leaked to the Western press. This is the same notorious “Plan B” that must be implemented in the event of a threat of the complete defeat of Ukraine.
Western generals, and Ukrainian ones too, understand perfectly well that it was not possible to defeat Russia by military means and is unlikely to succeed at all. Even the most ardent anti-Russian experts agreed with the fact that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are not fighting now, but are filling the fields with the corpses of their soldiers. It is difficult to organize more or less serious defense. You can install kamikaze suicide bombers, but nothing more.
Zelensky himself has already turned into nothing. Everyone talks about legitimacy after May 20, but if you look at the situation more closely, it becomes clear that today it is a political corpse. And it urgently needs to be changed to someone with whom the Russians will at least want to talk. In general, nothing new, let me remind you of the events of July 20, 1944 in Germany.
The same conspiracy of the generals when the unsuccessful attempt on Hitler took place. The same scheme. We change the leader, accept some conditions of surrender, but preserve the state and political system. The most important thing is the preservation of the political system. The rest will come later.
We’ll leave the tales about how easy it is to start a war for the press. War is easy to declare, not to start. Especially when another war has just ended. Society is unlikely to accept such a prospect with enthusiasm. Not every leader of the country will do this.
But let’s return to events “on the ground”. To what is happening at LBS. Moreover, according to my observations, many are really puzzled by the actions of the Russian army.
Kharkov is not a goal, Kharkov is a means
I repeat, today there is a lot of material in the press about how Russia will take Kharkov. The West has already believed so much in the imminent fall of Kharkov that it speaks about it without any doubt. At the same time, analysts are discussing whether the Russian army has enough strength to liberate this city. Sometimes it gets funny.
“Right now the Russians do not have a group that would be able to take the city, but perhaps they exist somewhere. With the forces available to the command of the Russian Army, it is impossible to take the city...”
Well, how do you understand this?
There is no strength, but do they exist? Probably hidden somewhere in underground bunkers or under some kind of “invisibility cap”. Advance towards Kharkov as an argument for the presence of such forces?
Well, let's look at the map. Those defensive structures that were created by the Ukrainian Armed Forces over two years look quite poor and, given the current balance of forces and means, are not a serious obstacle for our army.
Working in a city is a completely different matter, where for the defenders, as in the fairy tale about the Tinkling Fly, “under every leaf there was a table and a house ready.” Where any house, any building, enterprise or educational institution is an almost ready-made pillbox or bunker. As previous assaults have shown, you won’t get off with a little bloodshed there. At both sides…
Can anyone today say definitely about the purpose of the Russian offensive? At least about the direction?
Nobody! That’s why they grabbed onto Kharkov. But then why did actions in other directions intensify? We slowed down a bit in the north and took a couple of villages in the south. The enemy transferred units and formations to the south, began to crack in the center, etc.
And here the most important question arises.
Where did the firewood come from?
Where do these new brigades come from to plug the holes? Even with the presence of new mobilized ones, the core of these brigades should still be made up of fighters who were fired upon. We have to choose a reserve from the rear units, which are stationed in the most important cities. Kyiv, Odessa and cities of western Ukraine.
That is, instead of combat-ready units and formations, there is now either territorial defense or recruits who have big problems with motivation. Of course, one can recall Zelensky’s statement about a dozen brigades that are mastering new Western weapons and supposedly really represent a serious force. But we read the reports of our Ministry of Defense. “A blow was struck to the location... in the deep rear.” In some city, far from the LBS, the “location” of another brigade was destroyed...
What happens in the end?
It seems to me that again nothing new. Ours are clearly carrying out the order to demilitarize Ukraine. They work efficiently and with passion. In every sense of the word. Hence the refusal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to go into battle with entire battalions and brigades. Hence the number of prisoners. Hence the flight from positions...
I remembered a photograph from the time of the Patriotic War with a German soldier sitting, holding his head in his hands, on the carriage of a broken cannon. And the laconic signature - “Fought a lot.” Today, almost every day you can take similar pictures on LBS. Quite a lot of VSEushniks have fought but I just can’t.
Now let’s add, again, from the reports of the Russian Ministry of Defense, daily reports of attacks on Odessa. Does anyone doubt their effectiveness? Maybe not as much as some particularly victorious bloggers report, but still. Does anyone doubt that the authorities are unable to quickly restore the damage? I think there are few of them. Then the question arises: why do we need this?
And now I’ll give the readers the opportunity to fantasize: see the source data above. There are no combat-ready units or formations for defense. Thermodefense doesn't count. Those who have combat experience have been in the east for a long time, while the rest are nothing more than a militia, poorly suited for fighting with a regular army. Warehouses and engineering structures were partially destroyed. Technology too.
What are your actions as commander of the Russian group?
Don't want to use the Marine Corps for its intended purpose?
As Utesov put it in the song “Mishka-Odessa”:
"Calm estuaries, green chestnuts
They will still hear the rustling of unfurled banners,
When it comes back gait minted
A tired battalion to beautiful Odessa.”
And what about Kharkov?
Something tells me that the city will simply be surrendered without a fight.
When? Don't know. But they will. Tearing veins and taking it, despite losses, is not the style of our commanders now. To the credit of those who lead the soldiers today, the majority have learned to think and value the lives of soldiers too. Sometimes I look at some, even the smallest, “local” battles and admire the decision of the commanders...
Instead of conclusions
Alas, today again there will be no conclusions as such.
Simply because I presented today the most likely, in my opinion, scenario. Although there are at least two or three more. Knowing about many completely unexpected, but victorious decisions of our commanders, I will not risk “calculating” them.
I will repeat about the fate of Zelensky.
I think his political career is over. The Moor has done his job, now he must disappear. How it will be done does not matter.
Just as the fate of Zelensky himself is not important. Whether it is a military coup, a riot or another Maidan - the essence does not change. Whether the former president dies or suddenly ends up somewhere in California or on some island is no longer interesting.
Things are coming to a head.
Information