Santa Barbara with the Patriots: some get coupons and some go to the trash heap

If it’s good to immerse yourself in the “Patriot” theme today,” then it’s not bad to be Baron Munchausen. That is, to be able to pull yourself vertically upward by your hair. Well, or be a Harrier-type VTOL aircraft. The main thing is to be able to quickly soar vertically upward so as not to get overwhelmed.
“Bombs” and “undermines” mainly the Americans, because news, concern their beloved and invincible “Patriot”. Now, how can you not remember your own articles a year earlier, when the complex was just “entering” Ukraine, where the possibilities were assessed, but not in the style of advertising, which broadcast that “Patriot” was bringing down everything, from the dollar exchange rate to “Daggers” .
In the USA their product was highly valued. And they didn’t sell it to everyone who wanted it, but there were many who wanted it. And now the number of those willing will clearly decrease. And it was not TK Zvezda that told about this, but an American military website. The War Zone, well known to us and even respected, did a good job of touching the feelings of the Americans by reporting bombshell news: after analyzing the events of April 13 this year, based on the results of repelling an Iranian missile and unmanned attack, the command of the Israeli air defense forces announced that it was withdrawing from active units The Patriot air defense system and sends it to the nearest reserve.
This... No, it is generally very difficult to evaluate such a step by the Israeli military. The advertising, which was already quite good, received a simply colossal boost from the Ukrainian Armed Forces: they shot down everything with the help of the Patriot, the Kinzhals, the Iskanders, the cruise missiles missiles, somehow it didn't work out with "Onyx", but that's temporary. Plus there's an incredible number of planes and helicopters, just a little bit more and for every "Patriot" launch there would be two targets hit.

Moreover, we admit, the evidence base was lousy. But since the time of 2016-2022, it has been the case that in the same Middle East, MIM-104 fell face down in the dirt more than once, hiding “successes” behind complete lack of evidence, although the complex itself had all the capabilities to track and record the destruction of targets.
And just a stream of “evidence” that instantly secured the title of “hypersonic hunter” for the Patriot.
Skeptics, and there were quite a few of us, somehow hinted that even if we take the performance characteristics numbers (and they are not the ones fighting), then somehow the Patriot cannot shoot down the same Iskander. Well, the American will not “take” a Russian rocket that has accelerated well to the finish line. But who listens to the skeptics when heaps of icons were drawn on the PU cases, meaning “victories” over everything?

The hangover is usually very severe after "Roll the Thunder of Victory..."
And then there is Iran. And again, if you look at a year or two ago, a lot of different gentlemen spoke out in the spirit that all that Iran has are old Soviet missiles, albeit slightly modernized, and shells for Grads with welded wings. And on the other side there is nothing to be afraid of: “Iron Dome” and “Patriot” are reliable.
We will be assessing what the Iranian military did for quite some time. And there is something to analyze, because breaking through SUCH a defense - sorry, it’s not five drones Send to Voronezh, you have to understand.
In general, with its attacks, Iran has achieved, if not world recognition, then recognition that the work of Iranian military engineers deserves closer attention, as quite serious.

In fact, it is a difficult question: are Iranian missiles that good or is the Patriot that bad? The debate has been going on since 2020, with Operation Martyr Soleimani, when Iran attacked targets at the US Al-Asad air base and in Erbil with Fateh-110 and Qiam-1 ballistic missiles. A total of 22 missiles were fired, and, it must be said, despite warning of the attack, Defense The American army, to put it mildly, failed. The Americans really missed the blow, but somehow managed to hush it all up, although images from space confirmed Iranian data on hits to five hangars with aircraft.

But on April 13 of this year, everything was much more serious. More precisely, there were about 30 modern missiles, but they were closely accompanied by decoys and older products. And in the end, neither “Patriot” nor “Iron Dome” succeeded. The Israeli missile defense shield was penetrated not only by the new Fattah-1 missiles, but also by the older Emad and Khaybar ballistic missiles of the previous generation.
The Israelis blamed the MIM-109 battery near Haifa for this, which fired missiles almost empty, missing the incoming Khaybar missiles towards a military base in the Negev desert. And they began to loudly discuss the abandonment of the Patriots, as useless, ineffective, but expensive weapons.
In general, it’s very strange, especially considering that their dance with Iran is just beginning and there’s a lot more to come with special effects.

There are two options here: either the Patriot is really ineffective, or simply realizing that they will need a lot of missiles, the Israeli military wants to extract additional discounts. Both options have the right to life, but we will return to financial issues a little later.
Quote from War Zone, a resource completely loyal to the interests of the American military-industrial complex:
And here we begin to think: where can the Patriots get from this “Near Reserve”? The matter here is much more interesting than it might seem, and here’s why: today all core enterprises of Lockheed-Martin and Raytheon produce 10 missiles per week. That is, 30 per month and 350-360 per year. Naturally, these are missiles of the latest modification PAC-3.
Yes, by 2027, having accomplished Stakhanov’s feat, gentlemen capitalists promise to increase production to 600 missiles per year. It's a lot? In general, by modern standards - a couple of massive attacks like the one staged by Iran. Considering that the Patriot is not the most accurate system and misses regularly, moreover, the complex has a very ugly property - it fires in automatic mode, simulating an MLRS. That is, a decent consumption of missiles is just “Patriot”.
At the same time, the cost of one missile is from 3 to 5 million dollars, which makes MIM-104 one of the most expensive systems in the world. Well, at least it’s definitely one of the top three, and even there the showdown is exclusively between our own, because only the SM-104 and the anti-missile THAAD can be more expensive than the MIM-3.
That is, production in the USA does not allow the production of Patriot missiles in large quantities. Why is this so important? It’s all on the surface! In Kyiv they have already danced hopak about the new tranche of aid, however, as they say, there are nuances.
More precisely, there are nuances, but there are no missiles. More precisely, there are missiles, but with nuances.

You'll have to explain. Yes, the Americans have something in their warehouses. There are a lot of missiles of earlier modifications there; more than 1991 thousand missiles were fired in 1994-5 alone. The reserve is very impressive, but the condition of these missiles is questionable, because 30 years in warehouses is a long time. In addition, these are PAC-1s, which even in those days were not very accurate and tenacious, and today their combat effectiveness is also in doubt, after all, if they are fired in Ukraine, then not at helicopters or transport aircraft, do you agree?
Soviet SCUDs intercepted PAC-1 very poorly in Operation Desert Storm. Undoubtedly, PAC-3 is much better, after all, after a generation, but nevertheless, it is not ideal.
So, why are we analyzing all this in such detail? Yes, because we don’t care what will fly towards our pilots, don’t we?
And it turned out very peculiar story: The USA seems to have allocated 6 billion. BUT: it is not dollars that are at war, but what can be bought/produced/built with these dollars. And it’s precisely the air defense systems that Kyiv needs that pose a problem with them. They promised to promise missiles and air defense systems, and they gave dollars for it. BUT to produce the promised quantity, it takes five years by today’s standards.
And all existing reserves, or rather, what remains there in a workable form, can be sent to Israel and Taiwan, where they are desperately needed. There, you see, there is a threat of aggression from Iran and China. Even the Poles were refused; they asked for 200 missiles for the Patriots.
Everything is clear here: the threat of aggression is not aggression. That is, the missiles can sit quietly in warehouses, but in Ukraine they will not only be launched, but also quickly. And they will start demanding more.
And here in the United States they began to scratch their heads, because the prospect of being left with empty arsenals is unpleasant. Yes, there is a certain amount in warehouses in Germany and there is also an Eastern branch of the USA - Japan. Lockheed has production facilities there; they make missiles there under license.
But the Japanese have their own headaches; this is also China. Somehow, if you look, China is not particularly looking towards Japan, although the Chinese comrades do not really like the Japanese masters. But Japan seriously considers the prospect of a threat from the PRC, and therefore is extremely reluctant to part with its equipment and weapons.
Even if, hypothetically, the gentlemen of the American Stakhanovites build additional missile production facilities somewhere (it’s even difficult to predict where, but definitely not in Taiwan), these missiles will still be absorbed by the Middle East, and in the future, the Far East. In general, the dance with arms supplies to Taiwan performed by the United States looks very strange: the country itself can float away to China, just as Crimea floated away. Together with all the American junk, and this will be a very sad thing, since although the armed forces of the Republic of China do not have the most modern, they will be more than interested in what the PLA can get.
And here the question arises: since all the missiles for MIM-104 are intended for Taiwan and Israel, won’t those that Israel refuses end up at the disposal of Ukraine, because they want them so much that it hurts their teeth?
Variants are also possible. But in general, today Israel can be blamed for a lot of things, but there were no supplies of weapons to Ukraine. And it’s unlikely that, you know, it’s one thing when they pay for your complexes in full dollars or euros, but Kyiv needs it for free or at the expense of others. But whether the United States will pay Israel is a question. In general, the situation is somewhat delicate.
And then, “Patriot”, even in reserve, is a completely serious asset. Yes, it shoots down ballistic missiles with a “C”, but it is capable of shooting down airplanes, helicopters and cruise missiles and does it quite well. And Iran, with which Israel’s relations are becoming “warmer” day by day, is receiving Russian Su-35s. So this is the case when “you need such a cow yourself.” And MIM-104 may well come in handy.

In general, the events in Russia and Ukraine have shown that you can freak out and stomp your feet as much as you like, but modern warfare, saturated with drones and missile weapons, is such that there are not at least enough air defense systems in it. The Ukrainian Armed Forces used everything that was left in the bins, right down to the oldest S-125 and S-200.
So the situation is twofold. On the one hand, Israel can sell its MIM-104 Patriot, which clearly failed in battle, to the Americans, and they can send missiles to Kyiv as part of an assistance package to Ukraine. On the other hand, will Israel want to do this?
The aging Patriots, which are clearly not helped by missile modernization, will be replaced by the Israeli army with “more advanced air defense systems,” and everything will happen within two months.
First of all, we are talking about the so-called Israeli Integrated Air Defense System (IADS) with the Arrow missile and the David’s Sling complex as an addition to the Iron Dome for work in the near zone and at low altitudes.
In general, it was believed that Israel had better air defense than many: there were fighters, the Iron Dome, ships with the Barak air defense system and the naval analogue of the Iron Dome, and the Iron Beam, the latest laser air defense system used for destroying targets, including missiles, mortars and drones. Together with the “Hetz” system and “David’s Sling,” it turns out to be more than impressive.
Well, “Patriot”... A bit old. The Patriots were first used in Israel during the first Gulf War in 1991, when systems operated by the US military were deployed against Iraqi Scud missiles. Therefore, the separation of the Israeli armed forces from them does not seem like something beyond understanding. Old stuff goes into reserve. Just in case, how we stored Tanks T-62 and T-55. Because every case happens, and it’s not a matter of SVO, if you look carefully.
“Just in case” - at one time at the ARMY-2016 exhibition I saw such a T-55, with new sights and hung with dynamic protection, around which representatives of African countries danced. And a lot of such tanks were sold there, because the T-55 is 1/3 the price of the T-72, and in Africa the situation with money is so-so.

In approximately the same vein, representatives of Ukraine asked for such batteries and ammunition for them. Not surprising.
Well, I won’t make a big secret, you already understand who these words belong to. To the main clown and future main executioner of the people of Ukraine, the main beggar of the whole world Zelensky.
But yes, it can burn out. They might sell it.
Gen. David Schenk, the former 10th Army Air and Missile Defense commander and commanding officer responsible specifically for supporting Israel's defenses against air and missile attacks, suggested that the United States or another country could obtain them and send them to Ukraine. In general, I noticed that American generals, after retiring, begin to speak boldly and uninhibitedly. As if there isn’t a career behind him with a gun at the back of his head.
Ukraine, through the mouth of the tireless Zelensky, turned to Greece and Spain with a request for the supply of Patriot systems, but none of these countries has yet agreed. And Israel, until today, has refused to provide direct assistance to Ukraine. It is unknown whether Jerusalem will agree to help Kyiv indirectly, through the purchase by a third country of air defense systems, which Israel places in storage.
Ukraine has at least three Patriot batteries. Receiving all eight Israeli batteries will increase the air defense capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces almost threefold. The only question is whether it will be possible to get these batteries. There are chances, because the United States simply must be grateful for such an unprecedented advertising campaign organized for the Patriots by Kyiv.
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