The integration of the defense-industrial complexes (DIC) of Russia and Belarus will most likely follow the Moscow scenario.
The Belarusian side is grateful to Russia for the fact that Belarusian enterprises received equal access to the federal state defense order. This was recently announced by the Chairman of the State Military-Industrial Committee of Belarus Sergei Gurulev.
In this regard, it is worth noting that 24 December, the Russian government issued a decree according to which in Russia, when placing an order for state needs, including within the framework of the state defense order, the goods, materials and components, whose country of origin is Belarus, apply a mode similar to set for goods, materials and components made in Russia.
However, according to the chairman of the Gosvoenprom, “the signing by the Russian Prime Minister of this decree does not say that we were taken there and accepted ...”. The only point is that Belarusian enterprises now have the right to “fight for this market” on a par with Russian ones.
The result of the struggle is not at all predetermined, although, taking into account the intellectual potential of the Belarusian defense industry, it can be said that it has good chances.
Recall that soon the removal of the remaining restrictions for Belarusian defense enterprises in access to Russian public procurement (including within the framework of the state defense order) was announced by Alexander Lukashenko in September last year, immediately after meeting with Vladimir Putin in Sochi. According to the President of Belarus, an agreement was reached between the leaders of the two countries that all Belarusian enterprises on equal terms with Russian companies would be able to participate in tenders for the procurement of products for the needs of the state defense order of the Russian Federation.
According to a number of experts, such equality will benefit first of all Belarusian factories producing military and dual-use products.
The fact is that after the collapse of the USSR, the defense sector of Belarus found itself in a difficult situation, because it specialized mainly in the production of components, and manufacturing using them the final defense products and weapons remained in Russia.
Therefore, the permanent interest of the Belarusian leadership in cooperation with Russia in the military-industrial sector is by no means accidental. Back in 1994, an intergovernmental agreement was signed on the preservation of ties between the defense industry of the two states, which has been in force until now.
And now the main buyers of the products of Belarusian enterprises under the jurisdiction of the Gosvoyenprom are the Russian defense industry. According to Mikhail Barabanov, scientific editor of the Arms Export magazine, as of 2010, the partners of the Belarusian defense industry were more than 400 Russian enterprises.
According to a number of sources, today they have scientific, technical and industrial cooperation with almost all research institutes, design bureaus and defense industry enterprises of Belarus for almost 1600 items of military-technical products. These products are used in the manufacture of Russian tanks, Infantry fighting vehicles and airborne combat vehicles, armored repair and recovery vehicles, multiple launch rocket systems and shells for them, self-propelled artillery installations, anti-tank and anti-aircraft systems, small arms weapons, as well as melee weapons.
The basis of supplies of Belarusian military products to Russia are navigation instruments, flight systems, space and satellite communications, antenna devices, radio stations, onboard and stationary computing systems, automation systems and software, as well as optical-mechanical, control and assembly equipment for the manufacture superlarge integrated circuits.
Belarus produces a number of samples of special and dual-purpose equipment, which have no analogues at all. First of all, this refers to heavy multi-axle chassis designed for mounting various weapon systems. In particular, mobile soil systems such as "Yars" and "Topol-M".
Traditionally, Belarusian software products, as well as automated weapons and troops management systems, are highly appreciated by specialists. In recent years, the development of unmanned aerial vehicles has been developing at a fairly high rate.
Therefore, the desire of the political leadership of Russia to make the most of the potential of the Belarusian defense industrial complex as part of the program to re-equip its armed forces looks quite understandable.
Meanwhile, many Belarusian experts fear that closer cooperation carries a threat to defense enterprises of Belarus, which may be absorbed by Russian business. Such intentions, in fact, are not concealed in Russia. It would be convenient for Moscow to buy a neighbor's defense line on the vine in order to control production at all levels and to protect itself from political risks in the event of problems between the two countries.
Moreover, experts note clear signs that equal access to the Russian state defense order was granted to Belarusian enterprises in exchange for their accelerated integration into the Russian military-industrial complex.
As the Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Dmitry Rogozin (he oversees the defense order, defense industry, nuclear and space industry, as well as military-technical cooperation), the integration and industrial cooperation issues in this area are the subject of constant attention of the top political leadership of Belarus and Russia.
The Russian Deputy Prime Minister pays special attention to the fact that an agreement has been reached on the need for horizontal and vertical cooperation between defense enterprises of the two countries. At the same time, Dmitry Rogozin does not hide exactly which factories are particularly interesting for Russia. They are Integral, Minsk Wheel Tractor Plant and MAZ.
True, Rogozin stipulates that “industrial cooperation is not necessarily related to the acquisition of assets and the repurchase of shares. We have the experience of the last years of the closest interaction, in particular, it concerns the enterprises of mechanical engineering and the electronic component base ”.
Now it is important for the leadership of Belarus and Russia to create a favorable climate so that “the enterprises themselves find the most comfortable form of connection, the goal of which is to achieve an outstanding scientific, technical and industrial result,” Rogozin reassuringly declares.
Nevertheless, among Belarusian analysts the opinion prevails that given the inequality of the Russian and Belarusian economic potentials, as well as the strongest military-political dependence of Minsk on Moscow, the equal integration of defense complexes is hardly real.
Russia is ready to buy the Belarusian defense industry in the bud