Military Review

Global Distemper in the Medium Term

Generating forecasts for the near future (next year or two) - the occupation is obviously stupid. Too many unpredictable changes can occur in the real political / economic / cultural picture of the world. Nevertheless, we can try to put forward quite plausible assumptions about the development of the situation in the medium term (a decade or more) on the basis of a workable theoretical platform, supported by a serious empirical analysis of existing trends and constraints.

What do we know about the world system in which we all live? First, we know that we are surrounded by a global capitalist economy, whose main principle is continuous accumulation of capital. Secondly, this historically established system, as well as any other systems (starting from the Universe as a whole and ending with the smallest nano-systems) has its own life. It exists, functioning normally in accordance with the laws and structures determined by it. Then, at some point, the system begins to falter, upsets the delicate balance inside and enters a structural crisis. Thirdly, we know that the existing world system once had a polarization system, within which there was a constantly growing gap both between different states and within individual countries.

Today we are just living in a period of such a structural crisis, which has been going on for about forty years. And in this state, we will continue to exist for the next twenty to forty years. This is the average duration of a structural crisis. historical social system. As a result of such crises, its branching occurs. In essence, this means that there are two opposite ways of overcoming the structural crisis through the collective choice of one of the existing alternatives.

The principal characteristic of the structural crisis is a series of chaotic and uncontrolled fluctuations in all areas - in the market, in geopolitical alliances, stability of state borders, employment, taxes and debts. Uncertainty, even in the short term, becomes chronic. And the uncertainty also contributes to the freezing of economic agreements, which, of course, greatly aggravates the situation.

Here are some of the things that we can expect in the medium term. Most countries are facing today, and are likely to face this problem in the future, with a state budget deficit. Most of the powers are trying to cut their spending in two ways. The first way is to cut back (and sometimes eliminate altogether) social programs developed in the past in order to help ordinary citizens to insure themselves against various unforeseen circumstances possible in life. But there is also a second way. Many states reduce the flow of remittances to subordinate structures, federal subjects, if the state is a federation, and to local governments. This happens, as a rule, through an increase in taxes on downstream structures. If such measures become overwhelming, the subject may go bankrupt, which, as a rule, leads to the complete destruction of existing social guarantees (in particular, pension services).

This situation has a direct impact on the life of the state. On the one hand, this weakens it, as more and more subjects seek to secede, if their administration considers it an economically sound measure. But on the other hand, the importance of state power grows more than ever, because the population is beginning to seek salvation in the protectionist measures of the authorities (save our jobs, not yours). State borders are always changing. But today this process promises to be much more intensive than before. At the same time, new regional structures that provide communication between different states (or their subjects) - such as the European Union (EU) or the newly created Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) - will certainly develop and play a more significant geopolitical role.

Juggling powers between different hotbeds of geopolitical power will become an even more unstable process in a situation where none of these hotbeds will be able to single-handedly dictate international order. The United States, the old colossus with feet of clay, is still powerful enough today that their mistakes could cause significant damage to others. China, it would seem, currently has the strongest economic potential, but, nevertheless, this potential is still not as great as he himself and other countries consider. The degree of rapprochement between Russia and Western Europe is still an open question, and this problem is now acutely on the agenda of both parties. India cannot fully determine its strategy in the upcoming geopolitical game. For today's civil wars, such as the Syrian revolution, this may mean that third parties can prevent military intervention by each other, and that internal conflicts today are increasingly organized around antagonistic communities.

I will repeat my time-tested position. At the end of the decade we will see several major permutations. One of these permutations will be the creation of a confederative structure linking Japan, (reunited) China and (reunited) Korea. The second will be a geopolitical alliance between this confederation and the United States. The third is the creation of a de facto union between the EU and Russia. The fourth is a significant increase in the number of nuclear powers. Fifth - the spread of the policy of "generalized protectionism" in the world. The sixth one is general world deflation, which can take two forms - either a slight drop in prices, or inflation going out of control. Both will have the same effect.

It is obvious that this state of affairs cannot please most ordinary people. The unemployment rate worldwide will inexorably increase. And ordinary citizens, in turn, will seriously feel the full gravity of this situation. They have already shown that they are ready in various forms to withstand the next blows of fate, and popular resistance on the ground will grow steadily. We will find ourselves in the very epicenter of a huge political battle that will ultimately determine the future of the world.

Those who possess wealth and privileges today will not be idle. However, over time, they will also realize that they will not be able to secure their prosperous future within the framework of the existing capitalist system. They will strive to implement a system based not on the central role of the market, but on a combination of brute force and deception. Their main task is to implement the continuity of the three key principles from the old system to the new one, namely, hierarchy, exploitation and polarization.

On the other hand, popular forces will appear around the world, seeking to create a new, historical system that has not yet existed. Such a system will be based on relative democracy and on relative equality. What does this mean in terms of the formation of new world institutions? At the moment, to answer this question is almost impossible. We will get an answer only by observing the creation of this system in the coming decades.

Who will be the winner in this decisive battle? No one can predict. This will be the result of endless nano-actions of endless nano-participants over endless nano-moments. At some point, the balance between the two alternative solutions will finally swing in favor of one of the parties. And this is what gives us hope. It is important that each of us will do at each moment of solving each specific problem. Someone calls this the "butterfly effect." Waving her wings can change the climate on the other side of the world. And in this sense, we are all a little butterfly.

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  1. Tatarus
    Tatarus 5 February 2013 05: 52
    The third is the creation of a de facto union between the EU and Russia.

    Comrade Immanuel Wallerstein, of course, I wildly apologize, but what are you, without a doubt, most likely, supposedly, perhaps not at all Evgey, WILL YOU DO IF RUSSIA DOESN'T COMBINE WITH A RELAXING OLD FORGIVENESS - EUROPE?
  2. Atlon
    Atlon 5 February 2013 06: 08
    I dare not agree with such a forecast. If you will, without going into details (for boring, I already wrote more than once). There will be no unification of Japan, Korea (united) and China (united). There will be no unification of Russia and Europe. It will be different. China will control the Asia-Pacific region, Russia, Europe and the Middle East. The fate of the American continent is still vague, but the fact that the United States will lose all positions not only in the world but also in its region is obvious. The rest, we will see. The only thing I agree with the author is the timing of the forecast, i.e. from 10 to 20 years.
    1. tronin.maxim
      tronin.maxim 5 February 2013 06: 21
      Quote: Atlon
      The fate of the American continent is still foggy

      This is understandable, but where are the puppeteers (probably of Jewish nationality) who run America? It is doubtful that they will disappear, move to another country.
      1. Uncle Serozha
        Uncle Serozha 5 February 2013 06: 32
        Quote: tronin.maxim
        This is understandable, but where are the puppeteers (probably of Jewish nationality) who run America? It is doubtful that they will disappear, move to another country.

        The last paragraphs of the article refer to the fact that in the bowels of the people there are forces who want to create a fundamentally new system. Who knows, maybe they will succeed and humanity will manage without puppeteers?
        If I understand the article correctly, then we are talking about system crisis. This does not mean the crisis of the United States or Europe. It means a crisis itself "puppetry systems"if you like. drinks
        1. alexng
          alexng 5 February 2013 09: 09
          With the beginning of a new era, the puppetry institute will be gone forever. Time has shown its utopianism and senselessness of victims for the sake of a group of idiots imagining themselves to be God's deputies on Earth. And mankind has paid a dear price for this illusion and adventure on a global scale, and is still paying by inertia. My terms are more tight. This inhuman pack of scum will fall apart this year no later than. A mentally ill patient is more dead than alive. It is time to pay for all their sins.
      2. Atlon
        Atlon 5 February 2013 06: 40
        Quote: tronin.maxim
        It is doubtful that they will disappear, move to another country.

        Nothing doubtful ... Someone has already prepared a place for themselves in China ...
  3. Kaa
    Kaa 5 February 2013 07: 07
    An alliance with the EU is inevitable, they’re not so dead, China will concentrate on Southeast Asia and Africa, the Middle East will constantly boil, America will remember the times of the policy of isolationism. In general, it will be somewhere like this.
    1. Volkhov
      Volkhov 5 February 2013 13: 43
      Turn the earth's crust 30 degrees counterclockwise with the center in the Himalayas - North America will go to the pole, and the European part of Russia to the subtropics.
    2. Geisenberg
      Geisenberg 5 February 2013 15: 53
      But I don’t have a pony on the map at all ... Well, also an option ...
  4. CCA
    CCA 5 February 2013 07: 48
    Demagogy and transfusion from empty to empty ...
    The whole point is somewhat different ... The last few hundred years, the so-called civilized world, was built and developed by the method of expansion and enslavement of the weak by the strong ... Faster and better intellectual development, and as a result, rapid technological progress allowed the West to gain significant advantages in development at the expense of the less advanced ... And since over time the gap in this advantage began to actively decrease, then, having no other model of development, the West faced a dilemma - what to do ... What we are now seeing is an attempt to develop this scenario in the economic sphere, and an attempt to return to the use of force on the "less advanced" ... And since all this does not yet bring the desired results in strategic terms, having only some tactical successes ... - The West is nervous and frantically looking for a way out of this state ... The problem is that the West does not want to change its model, and this is its current weakness ...
  5. AKOL
    AKOL 5 February 2013 08: 04
    the creation of a confederate structure linking Japan, (reunited) China and (reunited) Korea

    Chegoito hardly believes this, although of course these peoples are closer to each other than to other nations, but there are too many contradictions, both political and historical and cultural. But wait and see, forecasts are generally not a reliable thing.
  6. konnd
    konnd 5 February 2013 09: 29
    as always. blah blah blah. many beeches and buzzwords. that we live in an era of change is already understandable.
  7. DeerIvanovich
    DeerIvanovich 5 February 2013 09: 49
    Japan did conduct secret negotiations with China on cooperation, but after the disaster, it sharply changed its position ...
    as ren-tivi (conspiracy theological version) said: they say America is to blame for everything, they are afraid that the Japs are running away and are scandalized by climatic weapons, here are those of Fukushima with the rejection of large territories. scared the Japs, so to speak, with the second nagasaka laughing
  8. Geisenberg
    Geisenberg 5 February 2013 15: 57
    Interesting forecast. What is 100% true in it is that some will try to maintain a system of brute force and deception.