Global Distemper in the Medium Term
Generating forecasts for the near future (next year or two) - the occupation is obviously stupid. Too many unpredictable changes can occur in the real political / economic / cultural picture of the world. Nevertheless, we can try to put forward quite plausible assumptions about the development of the situation in the medium term (a decade or more) on the basis of a workable theoretical platform, supported by a serious empirical analysis of existing trends and constraints.What do we know about the world system in which we all live? First, we know that we are surrounded by a global capitalist economy, whose main principle is continuous accumulation of capital. Secondly, this historically established system, as well as any other systems (starting from the Universe as a whole and ending with the smallest nano-systems) has its own life. It exists, functioning normally in accordance with the laws and structures determined by it. Then, at some point, the system begins to falter, upsets the delicate balance inside and enters a structural crisis. Thirdly, we know that the existing world system once had a polarization system, within which there was a constantly growing gap both between different states and within individual countries.
Today we are just living in a period of such a structural crisis, which has been going on for about forty years. And in this state, we will continue to exist for the next twenty to forty years. This is the average duration of a structural crisis. historical social system. As a result of such crises, its branching occurs. In essence, this means that there are two opposite ways of overcoming the structural crisis through the collective choice of one of the existing alternatives.
The principal characteristic of the structural crisis is a series of chaotic and uncontrolled fluctuations in all areas - in the market, in geopolitical alliances, stability of state borders, employment, taxes and debts. Uncertainty, even in the short term, becomes chronic. And the uncertainty also contributes to the freezing of economic agreements, which, of course, greatly aggravates the situation.
Here are some of the things that we can expect in the medium term. Most countries are facing today, and are likely to face this problem in the future, with a state budget deficit. Most of the powers are trying to cut their spending in two ways. The first way is to cut back (and sometimes eliminate altogether) social programs developed in the past in order to help ordinary citizens to insure themselves against various unforeseen circumstances possible in life. But there is also a second way. Many states reduce the flow of remittances to subordinate structures, federal subjects, if the state is a federation, and to local governments. This happens, as a rule, through an increase in taxes on downstream structures. If such measures become overwhelming, the subject may go bankrupt, which, as a rule, leads to the complete destruction of existing social guarantees (in particular, pension services).
This situation has a direct impact on the life of the state. On the one hand, this weakens it, as more and more subjects seek to secede, if their administration considers it an economically sound measure. But on the other hand, the importance of state power grows more than ever, because the population is beginning to seek salvation in the protectionist measures of the authorities (save our jobs, not yours). State borders are always changing. But today this process promises to be much more intensive than before. At the same time, new regional structures that provide communication between different states (or their subjects) - such as the European Union (EU) or the newly created Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) - will certainly develop and play a more significant geopolitical role.
Juggling powers between different hotbeds of geopolitical power will become an even more unstable process in a situation where none of these hotbeds will be able to single-handedly dictate international order. The United States, the old colossus with feet of clay, is still powerful enough today that their mistakes could cause significant damage to others. China, it would seem, currently has the strongest economic potential, but, nevertheless, this potential is still not as great as he himself and other countries consider. The degree of rapprochement between Russia and Western Europe is still an open question, and this problem is now acutely on the agenda of both parties. India cannot fully determine its strategy in the upcoming geopolitical game. For today's civil wars, such as the Syrian revolution, this may mean that third parties can prevent military intervention by each other, and that internal conflicts today are increasingly organized around antagonistic communities.
I will repeat my time-tested position. At the end of the decade we will see several major permutations. One of these permutations will be the creation of a confederative structure linking Japan, (reunited) China and (reunited) Korea. The second will be a geopolitical alliance between this confederation and the United States. The third is the creation of a de facto union between the EU and Russia. The fourth is a significant increase in the number of nuclear powers. Fifth - the spread of the policy of "generalized protectionism" in the world. The sixth one is general world deflation, which can take two forms - either a slight drop in prices, or inflation going out of control. Both will have the same effect.
It is obvious that this state of affairs cannot please most ordinary people. The unemployment rate worldwide will inexorably increase. And ordinary citizens, in turn, will seriously feel the full gravity of this situation. They have already shown that they are ready in various forms to withstand the next blows of fate, and popular resistance on the ground will grow steadily. We will find ourselves in the very epicenter of a huge political battle that will ultimately determine the future of the world.
Those who possess wealth and privileges today will not be idle. However, over time, they will also realize that they will not be able to secure their prosperous future within the framework of the existing capitalist system. They will strive to implement a system based not on the central role of the market, but on a combination of brute force and deception. Their main task is to implement the continuity of the three key principles from the old system to the new one, namely, hierarchy, exploitation and polarization.
On the other hand, popular forces will appear around the world, seeking to create a new, historical system that has not yet existed. Such a system will be based on relative democracy and on relative equality. What does this mean in terms of the formation of new world institutions? At the moment, to answer this question is almost impossible. We will get an answer only by observing the creation of this system in the coming decades.
Who will be the winner in this decisive battle? No one can predict. This will be the result of endless nano-actions of endless nano-participants over endless nano-moments. At some point, the balance between the two alternative solutions will finally swing in favor of one of the parties. And this is what gives us hope. It is important that each of us will do at each moment of solving each specific problem. Someone calls this the "butterfly effect." Waving her wings can change the climate on the other side of the world. And in this sense, we are all a little butterfly.
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