Military Review

Shale gas perspectives: myths and reality

56
Shale gas perspectives: myths and reality



Write this short note I was led by a discussion around the real economy of shale gas in the United States and the world. On the one hand, over the past 5 years, the development of the industry has been accompanied by a massive PR campaign in the press of the USA and Europe, calling for investment in the industry. On the other hand, the Russian media and some of the “green” media in continental Europe express concerns about the real cost of production and the risks of shale gas production.

In particular, the Russian press states that the costs of shale gas production are much higher than the current price level in the USA ($ 119 / thousand cubic meters) and amount to $ 212-283 / thousand cubic meters. According to the pessimists, the fast falling flow rate of shale gas wells, which lose 60-80% of flow rate during the first year of production, is to blame.
The consultants analyzed the finances of the leading 50 companies in the US oil and gas industry for five years, 2007-2011. At the time of preparing the analysis, the finances for 2012 were not yet ready. However, based on this report, several important conclusions can be drawn:

(1) Ernst & Young appreciated mining operating expenses (production costs) shale gas in 2011 as $ 14.29 per energy equivalent of a barrel of oil. In the energy equivalent of gas, this corresponds to $ 93 / thousand cubic meters. m

(2) From the statistics of the leading companies in the shale gas industry (Chesapeake Energy, Devon Energy, Continental Resources, EOG Resources) it follows that operating costs in the total pool of costs of companies in the industry is 41%. Another 57% is for capital expenditure and depreciation (DD&A), the remaining 2% for administration and other costs.

(3) Therefore, total cost shale gas including all costs should be about $ 229 / thousand cubic meters. m, which is really much higher than the level of current wholesale prices almost doubled.



However, is this inconsistency a cause for panic? For companies producing shale gas - yes. For consumers, no. The fact is that even this level of gas prices is significantly lower than the prices of natural gas in other regions of the world. For example, in Europe, natural gas is now worth $ 375 / thousand cubic meters. m (spot market UK NBP), in Asia, $ 589 / thousand cubic meters. m (according to the customs statistics of Japan in December 2012 g.).

The reader may ask, how is this abnormally low level of wholesale prices for natural gas maintained on the American market? The secret is in excessive competition and low barriers to entry into the industry, as well as the low profitability of shale gas production is compensated by the high profitability of associated shale oil and condensate production, the prices of which far exceed the cost price. For example, one of the industry leaders, Chesapeake Energy, accounted for 21% of the production volume in the third quarter of 2012, and it is constantly growing.

Since oil prices have not fallen as much as natural gas prices, but remain high, companies are actively investing in the production of shale oil and condensate. The leaders in this segment are EOG Resources (215,000 bpd), Chesapeake Energy (143,000 bpd), Continental Resources (103,000 bpd) and Whiting Oil (71,000 bpd). Based on the reporting of the companies in the shale oil sector, the average cost of oil produced (excluding logistics to the target markets) is $ 37 / barrel. This is certainly higher than that of the Gulf countries, but allows you to actively increase the volume of shale oil production in the United States, which has already reached 1.8 million barrels per day.

The growth of the oil shale industry in the United States itself has not yet had any effect on Gazprom’s competitiveness on the European gas market and the prospects for unconventional gas production by Ukraine. There are several reasons:

(1) The United States still can not export cheap gas to Europe due to the lack of infrastructure for its liquefaction

(2) Extraction of unconventional gas outside the United States, and shale gas in particular, while in the embryonic state. The unconventional gas includes 3 of the form: tight gas (dense gas, mass production began at the end of 1970x), coal-bed methane (coal methane, mass production began at the end of 1980x), shale gas (actually shale gas, the boom in which started 5 years ago).

The existing terminals in the United States were built not to liquefy, but to accept and regasify liquefied gas, so their conversion will take time and considerable resources. Typically, liquefaction terminals require 3 times more capital costs than regasification terminals of the same capacity. The duration of the terminal conversion may be about 4 years.

The production of unconventional gas outside the United States, and shale gas in particular, is difficult. Only three countries managed to achieve a significant share of unconventional gas (produced by the fracking method of coal methane, gas of dense rocks) in the total production - this is Canada, Australia and China. The reasons for the weak spread of unconventional gas production outside the United States is that the United States has a unique environment for the development of these technologies: in particular, 2 / 3 of the global pool of oil and gas engineers (members of the Society of Petroleum Engineers, SPE) are in North America, also The United States has a developed oilfield services sector, represented by world leaders Halliburton, Schlumberger, Baker Hughes, and others. In the rest of the world, except, perhaps, Norway, Britain and Australia, there are no similar conditions for the development of unconventional gas production.

As for Ukraine, in the case of Yuzovskaya Square, we are talking about Shell’s participation in the development of dense rock gas, tight gas, 35 has been a commercially mature technology for years, the risks of which are significantly lower than the risks of shale gas production. It is worth noting that, in the USA itself, dense rock gas gave about 30% of production before the shale gas phenomenon appeared at the end of 2000х. Nevertheless, despite the maturity of the technology itself, the risks of its implementation in Ukraine remain. The key success factors will be the quality of resources and the localization of capital and operating costs for the extraction of dense gas on the Ukrainian market. If we compare with similar projects in other countries, the cost of dense Ukrainian gas will be high, about $ 260 / thousand cubic meters. m, but, nevertheless, below the price level of Gazprom $ 425 / thousand cubic meters. m

Summarizing, we can come to the same conclusion: yes, the pricing of shale gas in the United States is largely distorted by the rapid growth and excessive competition in this industry, and now the wholesale prices for 48% are lower than the actual cost of production.

This situation is very similar to what happened in East Texas, when huge oil fields were discovered. They rushed to develop all hundreds, if not thousands of companies. Oil prices fell below the cost of production - to 13 cents per barrel. The US oil industry was able to get out of a critical situation with the support of the Roosevelt administration, which began a tough market regulation. This led many small manufacturers to go bankrupt. The market has established price stability with a simultaneous increase in business profitability. Apparently, sooner or later, such mechanisms will be in demand in order to stabilize the shale gas market, where today there is the same anarchy as 80 years ago in Texas and Oklahoma.

However, this does not mean that the American shale gas industry is uncompetitive on the global market, because gas prices in other regions (Europe, Asia) exceed the cost of US shale gas 1.6 - 2.6 times. The situation with undervalued gas prices in the USA is partially supported by high oil prices. We can expect that weak players with high costs will leave the shale gas industry, and strong players will refocus on shale oil, as a result of which the spot prices of natural gas in the United States will approach its real cost (about $ 229 / thousand cubic meters). The Ukrainian project of Shell relies on a mature technology for the extraction of dense gas, which has already been commercially proven for 35 for years. Theoretically, the prime cost of gas of dense rocks of Ukrainian production will be lower than Gazprom prices by 39%, however, only the sales can show what the actual volumes of commercial gas production of Yuzovskaya area are.
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  1. esaul
    esaul 1 February 2013 07: 28 New
    +7
    Yes, the ass is full - this is a hope for slates! Like it or not, like a spin, there is no real alternative to GHGs produced traditionally and transported by pipe, to date. And all these high-profile statements on breakthroughs are temporary saving sighs by the Western economy before dutifully bowing their heads to the dictatorship of the GHG supplier, tobish, to Russia. And this oh, if not hotstsa!
    1. Denis
      Denis 1 February 2013 07: 31 New
      +5
      Our experts have long spoken about this, uncontested and expensive.
      1. esaul
        esaul 1 February 2013 07: 38 New
        +4
        Denis,
        Greetings Denis hi And, besides this, the ecology of those who "broke through" in a dozen years will be, if not a complete zvizdets, then a catastrophic state - how to drink. It's just that ukry did not enter the topic by signing agreements with Shell. Well - this is more from despair and a desire to spoil the air of Russia fool
        1. Denis
          Denis 1 February 2013 07: 42 New
          +3
          Good morning. Ukraine loves to conclude all sorts of agreements, but they do not always want to fulfill their obligations under the agreements, led in a word.
          1. esaul
            esaul 1 February 2013 07: 53 New
            +2
            Quote: Denis
            but they don’t always want to fulfill their obligations under the agreements

            Exactly...! And they also call Russia "earthworm!" fool
            1. Joker
              Joker 1 February 2013 17: 52 New
              +2
              And they also call Russia "an earthworm!"

              Ahaaa, and immediately Kaa appeared wassat
              All the same, good cartoons were hi
              1. Kaa
                Kaa 2 February 2013 02: 30 New
                0
                Quote: Joker
                immediately Kaa appeared

                I'm here ... I'm always ... I'm everywhere .... wink And anyway, if someone (I don’t specifically mean anyone, please note) paranoia, this does not mean that you are not being watched ... bully
        2. Kaa
          Kaa 1 February 2013 12: 08 New
          11
          Quote: esaul
          This is only ukry in the topic did not enter, signing an agreement with Shell.

          Good day to all! And this is not the first time. All this would be funny if it were not so .... Firstly, let us recall the "famous" project of the Odessa-Brody pipeline, when it was first built, and then it turned out that there was nothing to fill it with - well, there is no oil in Odessa, no gas, and there is scrap metal. Well, the latest events are generally an anecdote: "As UNIAN reported, on November 26, Ukraine signed an agreement on cooperation with Excelerate Energy LLC (USA) and Gas Natural Fenosa (Spain) on the implementation of the national project" LNG-terminal. " Yuriy Boyko, it was planned to lease a floating plant for regasification of liquefied gas from Excelerate Energy LLC, and Gas Natural Fenosa (Spain) was to act as an investor in the implementation of the project.However, a few hours after the contracts were signed, the company Gas Natural Fenosa has denied its participation in the project, saying that the signer of the agreement on the Spanish side is not a representative of the company. At the same time, the signatory himself, Jordi Bonway, later admitted in a UNIAN comment that he really had no authority Sign any agreement on behalf of the company.
          : http://www.unian.net/news/539519-kabmin-reshil-razobratsya-s-kem-kaskiv-podpisyi

          val-dogovora-po-lng-terminalu.html
          The same thing (the soul senses) will turn out to be the same with the gas. Well, our "guys" just love to master giant projects - there is something to cut and skate. What has not happened in recent years - and gold mining, and "colossal" deposits of manganese ores in the bare steppe, and now empty stadiums at astronomical prices, and "high-speed" Hyundai trains, idle in the steppes of Ukraine, and wind power, and the transition heating on straw and much more. It's all not so much in opposition to Russia, as a desire to "cut the loot"with the miserable wages of the population and the dying coal and metallurgical industries, not to mention aircraft construction, shipbuilding, and high-tech products. So politics is secondary here, the main thing is to take everything away (from the people) and divide (between the clans). The same is with the entity itself. it will turn out with gas - they will reconnoiter, reconnoiter, and then they will divorce with their hands - it did not work out, they say ... request
          1. Papakiko
            Papakiko 1 February 2013 14: 01 New
            +4
            Krasava! +++
            Quote: Kaa
            they will scout, scout, and then scout with their hands

            I wrote it to myself in my diary good

            While the Fed will inject from 45 to 85 billion dollars a month, no real economy can stand it.
            More amusing is the map of the deposits of this "shale-gas".
            If our company received loans without%, then the picture was on the real cost of production an order of magnitude different.

            Yesterday the GDP sang about the increase in labor productivity by 1.5-2 times.
            They "purred" the same with MDA in 2008.
            Then there was an autumn collapse and horror with longing in the eyes of citizens.
            At the moment, how much do $ and E cost on the MICEX?
            We begin to prepare. hi
    2. older
      older 1 February 2013 08: 16 New
      +2
      Quote: esaul
      Yes, the ass is full - this is the hope for shale
      Today it’s possible .. But in the future it’s an option .... So you just don’t have to give up an idea ...
      1. nagi
        nagi 1 February 2013 13: 36 New
        +2
        How far is the long run? Since the well quickly runs dry, you have to make a new one. The pipe, too, must always be dragged. If the cost of shale gas is still added to the cost of liquefaction and transportation, then the walrus is not high, and if environmentalists seriously press them, then there will be a lot of hemorrhoids with green ones.
        1. Misantrop
          Misantrop 2 February 2013 01: 30 New
          +1
          Quote: nagi
          and if environmentalists will seriously push them, then there will be a lot of hemorrhoids with green ones.

          IMHO hemorrhoids will become MUCH more when miners join the ecologists from the mines flooding by the seeping water ... winked
      2. ikrut
        ikrut 1 February 2013 21: 37 New
        +6
        Quote: older
        Today it’s possible .. But in the future it’s an option .... So you just don’t have to give up an idea ...

        The fact of the matter is that there are no prospects. The shale well is 80% empty after the first year of operation. To support production - you need to drill more often and more. And already today the overwhelming majority of the world's oil rigs fall on the shale regions of the United States. But the reserves of shale gas are not large, compared with natural. The production efficiency (comparative) is not very high, and the calorific value of shale gas is 2-3 times lower than the average natural one. That is, its conditional reserves can be safely divided into two. In addition, we must not forget that the production of shale gas irrevocably takes a huge amount of FRESH water, the deficit of which in the world today is not palpable.
        For Russia, it is even more interesting to mine the so-called. "associated" gas, which appears during oil production or in coal mines. Its reserves are comparable to American shale, and the cost of production is much cheaper. The "shale revolution" is a duck, calculated on the fact that, under the hype about it, the price of Russian gas and oil can be drastically reduced. How this happened through the efforts of the OPEC countries and the United States in the late 80s. But so far the Americans are not moving on with this. The people have long since cut through their intrigues and are not being led to virtual noodles.
    3. alexng
      alexng 1 February 2013 09: 45 New
      +2
      Most likely, shale gas is more of a policy than a real benefit. PR, PR and PR again. This is so according to S.Shakalski. They can’t have nothing to oppose, so at least they’ll make fun of it and it will be gas, but with the letter "r".
    4. Botanologist
      Botanologist 1 February 2013 13: 42 New
      +1
      But suckers vparit conveniently.
  2. Horde
    Horde 1 February 2013 07: 29 New
    +1
    it is necessary to improve production, storage technologies, it is necessary to reduce costs, everything goes to the point that a person will soon be glad to any heat source.
    1. older
      older 1 February 2013 08: 20 New
      +1
      Quote: Horde
      , everything goes to the fact that a person will soon be glad to any source of heat.
      I agree .... At the moment, it may be too early to talk about the idea as a panacea for hydrocarbon dependence, but in the future, why not?
    2. Misantrop
      Misantrop 2 February 2013 15: 18 New
      0
      Quote: Horde
      a person will soon be happy with any source of heat.

      Not at all - Fukushima is trying to cool down for the second year. A special joy from this source is not yet noticeable lol
  3. Tersky
    Tersky 1 February 2013 07: 30 New
    +3
    the cost of Ukrainian dense gas will be high, about $ 260 / thousand cubic meters. m, but, nevertheless, below the price level of Gazprom $ 425 / thousand cubic meters. m
    and at the same time
    : The situation with low gas prices in the USA is partially supported by high oil prices.
    , then the price of Ukrinsk shale gas will be much higher than predicted, no oil means there is nothing to support it
    1. wax
      wax 2 February 2013 00: 52 New
      +1
      In fact, comparing prices just for a thousand cubic meters is incorrect; it is necessary to compare the calorific values. This, first of all. Those. Ukrainian shale gas will not be cheaper than natural Gazprom gas by 1%, but more expensive by 40-40%. Secondly, it is necessary to take into account the gas composition of aggressive additives, which must be disposed of to stoves in kitchens. And, most likely, you will have to face the diversity of its composition. It is without ecology. Slates are an excellent resource for the chemical industry.
  4. fenix57
    fenix57 1 February 2013 07: 42 New
    +1
    There is not one step from the development of deposits to the start of consumption. You don't need to forget about it. ".. Yuzovskaya area we are talking about Shell's participation in the development of gas from tight rocks ..." - the development of the field and the beginning of consumption, these things are far from each other. "In the next few years, Ukraine may enter commercial production of unconventional gas, and its production may reach 20 billion cubic meters annually, which will double the total gas production."

    This was stated in an interview with the International Herald Tribune by Cadogan Petroleum CEO Bertrand de Pallires. (see http: //korrespondent.net/business/companies/1352820-ukraina-mozhet-dobyvat
    -d
    o-20-mlrd-kub-slancevogo-gaza-v-god-eksperty)- Is it too optimistic?
    1. ikrut
      ikrut 1 February 2013 21: 48 New
      +5
      Quote: fenix57
      "In the next few years Ukraine may enter the commercial production of unconventional gas, and its production may reach 20 billion cubic meters annually

      And where in the Donbass to get so much fresh water for shale mining? The Dnieper-Donbass canal is not very coping with today's water consumption. And if shale gas is produced, the Dnieper will have to be pumped there. Small rivers in Ukraine dry up catastrophically. The Dnieper in the middle course in the summer is generally green cesspool. Simferopol reservoir even now is almost empty. In Alushta, water is given hourly. Soon there will be nothing to drink. And these durools decided to extract shale gas in a region where there is absolutely no fresh water. They will finally ruin the ecology. And you will have to drink rainwater (if you are lucky with rain) or buy in Russia. For the proceeds from the sale of shale gas money. And what IDIOT came up with shale gas in the Donbass to produce ??? If it weren’t - to grow grain, grapes, fruits and vegetables on that land. Sell to the same Russia. In the world of food is not very rosy. Somehow it would be enough to heat the houses. God has given everyone an opportunity and a deed. And here ... no words.
  5. CCA
    CCA 1 February 2013 08: 39 New
    +6
    The value of this article is that the topic and its prospects are analyzed rather briefly and without emotions ... But the conclusion can be drawn as follows: Shale gas production is possible, but not everywhere, both in terms of natural and economic prospects ... that there is a lot of noise around this topic, it’s the usual practice of Western business to actively attract venture investors (by type - whoever doesn’t have time will be late) ...
    1. Sol
      Sol 1 February 2013 09: 02 New
      +1
      Hello!
      Nothing valuable (. Common, philistine gossip and, as you rightly noticed, a lot of noise. The methods of using coal-shale gas for the needs of a mining enterprise have been used for a long time, but even super-category enterprises cannot do without third-party fuel. And the most interesting thing is one article, in any analytical notes you will not find a mention of the gas content of shale formations. The "shale" balance also includes a return balance of gas (to increase the production of oil wells, GHG is injected into the field) of oil fields in the USA and Canada. And if everything were so rosy, the EU would have been concerned about this long ago, but no one has bought the technology except Poland.
  6. fzr1000
    fzr1000 1 February 2013 10: 22 New
    +1
    Good blog on this subject.
    http://crustgroup.livejournal.com/
    1. leon-iv
      leon-iv 1 February 2013 10: 57 New
      0
      Yes, a very suitable resource for a long time I read it.
  7. Dinver
    Dinver 1 February 2013 10: 34 New
    +4
    Little is written about this, but shale has two very unpleasant features, the first one is that it cannot be delivered through pipes without preliminary expensive cleaning, it cannot be liquefied without cleaning, the second comes from the first because of the huge amount of various harmful impurities (hydrogen sulfide and others) it can not be used in everyday life.
  8. Don
    Don 1 February 2013 11: 28 New
    +3
    As a resident of Donetsk, it’s hard for me to conclude now. On the one hand, gas will still be cheaper, which means that metallurgists can be pulled out of the crisis. On the other hand, all environmentalists, whether Donetsk, Lviv or foreign, claim the destruction of the environment. That is why the Germans and French abandoned its production.
    1. Kaa
      Kaa 1 February 2013 12: 14 New
      +5
      Quote: Don
      all environmentalists, whether Donetsk, Lviv or foreign, claim the destruction of the environment.

      Countryman, where is the huge amount of water in the Donbass necessary for hydraulic fracturing? What further can we talk about, the same channel from the Dnieper will need to be pulled, how many lards will drag it, what then will the cost reduction ?! fool
      1. Don
        Don 1 February 2013 15: 38 New
        +2
        Quote: Kaa
        Countryman, where is the huge amount of water in the Donbass necessary for hydraulic fracturing?

        It’s hard for people to find water from the Seversky Donets, but I don’t even imagine how much they will find for gas production.
      2. Sol
        Sol 1 February 2013 16: 20 New
        +1
        ask the miners about the technology of formation torpedoing and many questions will disappear themselves
      3. ikrut
        ikrut 1 February 2013 22: 23 New
        +3
        Quote: Kaa
        the same channel from the Dnieper will need to be pulled, how many lards will drag it, what then will the cost reduction ?!

        Yes, there is such a channel for a long time. Dnipro-Donbass is called. But today it is not enough. He has practically drained (by feeding) the most fishy (former) and cleanest river in Europe - the Orel. In the 70s, depths in the river of 5-6 meters were not uncommon. Now, in order to find a meter, you have to search very hard. And so - 30-40 cm. And the surrounding lakes and ponds, where fish were raised five years ago, are already empty. You can ride a car. This foolishness with shale mining for the ecology of Ukraine will be more serious in consequences than the planned turn of northern rivers in Russia in the 80s. Fresh water and so catastrophically not enough. In the water supply systems, the water is no longer clean. and some kind of emulsion. Wells in villages are empty. At my dacha the well has dried up. here things more serious than "Holodomor" may turn out.
        1. Kaa
          Kaa 2 February 2013 02: 43 New
          0
          Quote: ikrut
          This stupidity with shale mining for the ecology of Ukraine will be more serious in the consequences than the planned turn of the northern rivers in Russia in the 80s.

          Yes, mark my word, the case will end with a simple cut of the budget. It will be, like in a cartoon about Cheburashka: "We built, built, and finally built ..." And there will be no gas, but the guys will go up a couple more positions in the Forbes list ... THERE IS SO MUCH SHALE GAS WE WILL DO !
  9. Leisure
    Leisure 1 February 2013 11: 50 New
    +3
    I, not a shareholder of Gazprom, so do not worry much.
    1. gladiatorakz
      gladiatorakz 1 February 2013 20: 32 New
      0
      Quote: Lazer
      I, not a shareholder of Gazprom, so do not worry much.

      The first sober comment. good
  10. Pon69
    Pon69 1 February 2013 12: 48 New
    +1
    This is when Ukraine sold gas $ 425? 380 they already require a discount. I want to see how they will buy from Shell at a cost of 280 below 380!
    1. Kievan
      Kievan 1 February 2013 16: 08 New
      0
      Quote: Pon69
      This is when Ukraine sold gas $ 425? 380 they already require a discount. I want to see how they will buy from Shell at a cost of 280 below 380!

      As you know, the price of Russian natural gas imported by NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine to the country in the first quarter of 2012 was about $ 416 per 1 cubic meters. m, in the second - about $ 425 per 1 cubic meters. m, in the third - $ 426. In the fourth quarter of this year, the price is forecast at $ 417 per 1000 cubic meters. g.

      http://www.segodnya.ua/economics/enews/V-Gazprome-navali-dopustimuyu-cenu-gaza-d
      lya-Ukrainy-v-2013-godu.html

      Learn the materiel !!
      1. wax
        wax 2 February 2013 00: 57 New
        +1
        In fact, the price of gas (as well as oil) is not determined by the cost of its (her) production and transportation. This is another consideration that sharing the skin of an unkilled bear is a rotten affair.
  11. bistrov.
    bistrov. 1 February 2013 13: 01 New
    +1
    As I understood from the article and from other sources, now we can talk only about the experimental production of shale gas, but not at all on a large, industrial scale. In addition, the debit of shale gas wells decreases very quickly, in 3-5 years, almost to zero, while a natural gas well produces gas from 10 to 15 years. Shale gas has a slightly different composition and therefore aggressively affects metal pipes. Add here the environmental risks ... Well, I don’t know, let them try, although I strongly doubt that the game is worth the candle. Why not to invest this money in expanding the production of natural gas, the reserves of which are in Ukraine? In general, from the near-gas actions of the Ukrainian authorities it smells a lot of adventure: - this is the Odessa-Brody pipeline, and the theft of transit gas, and speculation on its gas pipe, and there were no projections, it’s Turkmen gas, which really has nothing to deliver, and liquefied gas with a scandalous terminal, and the construction of Europe's largest solar power plants. One could laugh if it were not so sad. Practical Europe is in no hurry to experiment with dubious projects, preferring to buy gas from Russia, though recently it has also moved in search of other suppliers, it seems that it is hard for Russia to feel the mighty bear paw on its head.
    1. Sol
      Sol 1 February 2013 16: 24 New
      +1
      we can only talk about a "financial bubble" ((
  12. Dr.M.
    Dr.M. 1 February 2013 13: 29 New
    +4
    Not in my rules to post whole sheets, but as an exception (painfully cool stuff):

    http://www.warandpeace.ru/ru/analysis/view/74419/

    See shale gas? Here I am about the same. He is yellow in these diagrams. When you are told about the "huge reserves of shale gas in the world" - you can send people to this diagram. Her International Energy Agency (IEA) was, not me. There is a lot of oil shale in the world, but only a small part of these huge reserves can be extracted. Well, you can evaluate the role of shale gas in the Russian gas industry for yourself - it is better to extract coal methane here (it is purple in the diagram). And the miners will be more intact, and the mine has been dug anyway. Probably you were told that slate is super cheap? We continue the session of black magic:



    Oppanki. And where are the "gaspopies"? "Popisyat" is about $ 2 per MBtu. It was, after all, back in April. Exactly when this IEA report was published. Comrades, traders - teach the specifics of the gas industry in the real way! There was gas "pissyat" - and there is no it.

    We look further. Russia. The "old gas" of Western Siberia, which includes both Urengoy and Yamburg, and the recently commissioned Bovanenkovo ​​and from another three dozen fields that have yet to be developed in Yamal and Gydan, will indeed "go out". And even less, considering the funny figure "zero", as the lower limit of its cost. However, as we remember, it was possible to say earlier that "there is a lot of gas, you have it cheap, so otherwise - sell us gas in exchange for pipes for transporting this gas." Now the proud "raw material appendages", looking, for example, at the cost of producing traditional and shale gas in Europe and observing the "giant" gas reserves of Norway, offer not to show off and take gas at a fair price. To have enough, in a response, not only for pipes, but also for a bunch of useful nishtyaks for a cold northern country.

    In general, as Comrade Nobuo said in 2007: “The growing demand for energy cannot be met by the existing capacities of the oil sector. New capacities must be commissioned, but this requires large investments. And oil producing countries are very reluctant to admit foreign investments in their oil sector ". Translated from politically correct into Russian - raw materials have become insolent and have lost their fear. They want to extract both oil and gas themselves. And then sell it profitably. Technological appendages.

    Well, if Europe does not want Russian gas, then you can, for example, go to the USA. There is a slate ... Stop-stop-stop. And what about traditional gas? Does it seem to be cheaper than shale?

    VCR, apartment, remember? But no. I mean, the USA no longer has cheap traditional gas. There is, but such as Russia has on Shtokman or somewhere in northern Yakutia. It is already at a cost, like a slate. This is again not I wrote, but the IEA. The table is slightly higher, from the same 2012 report. Do not believe that everything is so sad? We’ll go to this interesting site. Currently, there are 1 rigs in the United States alone, and another 839 in Canada. And all over the world, excluding the USA and Canada, only 355 drilling rigs are operating.
  13. Vital 33
    Vital 33 1 February 2013 14: 39 New
    0
    Traditional mining is certainly much cheaper and more profitable ... BUT! Here, it plays a role how much the final buyer gets it. And even if the production costs $ 260, or how much there, it is still cheaper than buying in Russia. Whatever you say, Amer already really refused to import, and they have 60-70 dollars of gas on the domestic market, and this is a reality.
    And as for the contract, there Shell will drill for his loot, etc., and these guys are not stupid, and they know how to count money.
    1. Botanologist
      Botanologist 1 February 2013 17: 03 New
      0
      Well, wait, when will the supply of cheap Ukrainian shale gas to Russia begin? lol
      1. Vital 33
        Vital 33 1 February 2013 17: 56 New
        0
        No, it’d be enough :). But it’s cheaper than taking from you.
  14. Iraclius
    Iraclius 1 February 2013 16: 01 New
    +2
    I take it at once, clearly and clearly explain that the Americans are arrogant пи... uh ... cheating. Here are the official data on oil production and consumption in the USA:

    The monstrous abyss between consumption and domestic production will continue to be eliminated solely by imports of liquid hydrocarbons, you know where. Yes, it is possible that due to NGL production and "shale oil" it will decrease slightly, but its size will still reach 30-35% of total consumption - and this is only if Napoleonic plans to reduce oil consumption from the current 18 Mbd to 16 Mbd will be fully realized - even despite the continuing population growth of the United States itself.
    That's it, friends. And all these tales about slates are sung only to calm public opinion. The only real alternative to oil is nuclear energy, but everyone knows the situation close to hysteria. In addition, the situation with centrifuges is also known to many. laughing
  15. Egoza
    Egoza 1 February 2013 18: 34 New
    +7
    Oil giant Shell and Nadra Yuzovskaya LLC received concessions from the Ukrainian authorities for the development of shale gas fields in the Donetsk and Kharkov regions.
    So, investors will be exempted from paying environmental tax, special water use fees, land fees, customs duties, gas rental fees, targeted premium to the current gas tariff, mandatory pension insurance premium for shale gas production on Yuzovskaya Square (Kharkovskaya and Donetsk region).
    Such provisions are indicated in the draft agreement, which was published by the deputy of the Kharkiv regional council from "Batkivshchyna" Ivan Varchenko.
    According to the document, investors will also not pay fees levied on the sale of foreign currency from mobile services, the acquisition of real estate and the alienation of cars.
    Thus, Shell and Nadra Yuzovskaya will pay only income tax, VAT and pay subsurface use fees when developing deposits.
    At the same time, the draft agreement provides for sanctions against Ukraine, in case of untimely VAT refund - a penalty in the amount of 120% of the NBU discount rate for each day of delay.
    http://www.segodnya.ua/economics/enews/Ukrainskaya-vlast-podarila-Shell-bolshie-
    nalogovye-lgoty.html
    hhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
    It’s hard to imagine the greater betrayal of your country! am They will ruin the earth, and the environment, and people!
    1. Allegedly
      Allegedly 1 February 2013 20: 26 New
      +1
      Quote: Egoza
      They will ruin the earth, and the environment, and people


      Do not worry, nothing will be mined there. wink . At least they will get gas no more than in Poland. And in Poland, zero ...

      They’ll have time to fuck up a bit. There will be no profit, which means that .UA will also remain. Orphans repay debts to their beloved s * ndosam. To the organs ...
      1. Egoza
        Egoza 1 February 2013 20: 46 New
        +2
        Quote: JACOB
        Orphans repay debts to their beloved s * ndosam. To the organs ...

        Well, "thanks" for such a prediction !!! I'm especially worried that development will be in an area that COULD confront this nefarious Freedom! This is no longer a joke!
    2. ikrut
      ikrut 1 February 2013 22: 30 New
      +3
      Quote: Egoza
      They will ruin the earth, and the environment, and people!

      "Holodomor" will seem like flowers after the fresh water is gone and there is nothing to drink.
    3. wax
      wax 2 February 2013 01: 04 New
      +1
      Ukraine seems to prefer to become a colony of the West than to establish a high-tech partnership with Russia. I apologize - not Ukraine in the person of the working people, but Ukraine in the face of the oligarch thieves. God save Ukraine!
  16. homosum20
    homosum20 1 February 2013 19: 11 New
    +1
    Attor at the beginning of the article briefly mentioned that shale wells only work for a year (debit drops by 80%). And how long is this shale gas enough ?.
    And the Ukrainians can only sympathize. With their oligarchy and government - "fly or crawl - the end is known ...."
  17. APASUS
    APASUS 1 February 2013 19: 14 New
    +1
    The article is so-so.
    The article does not indicate at all what subtleties in the production of shale gas.
    Germany completely imposed a ban on the production of miracle gas !!! To expand the horizontal well and increase the area of ​​cultivation, toxic reagents are used, which remain there.
    Americans declare the use of the well up to 10 years, in fact, after 2-3 years, 40% of the wells can be safely closed.
    Actually, this story resembles a soap bubble.
    Having played the game, the Americans quickly realized the weak prospects and invested money in advertising and began to sell technology (NOT GAS), and while the advertisement was on, the technology was selling up like hot cakes !!!
  18. Kievan
    Kievan 1 February 2013 20: 11 New
    -2
    I realized this is a forum of shale gas specialists ... laughing
    1. Allegedly
      Allegedly 1 February 2013 21: 20 New
      +3
      Quote: Kievite
      I understood


      I will try to bring down your arrogance with simple numbers ...

      To develop shale gas fields, it will be necessary to drill 100-220 thousand wells worth $ 3-4 million each. In each !!! a well needs to be poured 10 (or maybe 30, because shale lying in Ukraine is deeper than in UWB) thousand tons of water plus sand, plus chemicals (only about 15 tons of chemicals, and this is a concentrate). Thus, the minimum amount of capital investment in drilling alone should be $ 300 billion.

      Money prints money, and the price of money for them is equal to the price of paper and paint. Plus, in the UWB there are subsidies for shale gas production (if I'm not mistaken, this is 35% of the cost of production). And in the UWB, they have not stood on ceremony for a long time and throw unsuspecting investors at any number of dough.

      Another interesting factor - specific heat of combustion (that is, the energy received during gas combustion) is 2-3 times lower than that of traditional natural gas, which means that, for example, it needs 2-3 times more to heat the same volume water.

      I'm not even talking about the lack of infrastructure for unconventional production of unconventional gas ...

      But the most interesting is yet to come, I would call it ECOLOGICAL CATASTROPHY, and I don’t recommend living near shale gas production sites ...

      1. Allegedly
        Allegedly 1 February 2013 21: 24 New
        0
        something like that...
        1. Allegedly
          Allegedly 1 February 2013 21: 35 New
          +1
          maybe so ...
        2. Kievan
          Kievan 1 February 2013 21: 54 New
          -4
          This is a photograph of the breakthrough of a settling dam in France.
          Quote: JACOB
          I will try to bring down your arrogance with simple numbers ...

          What arrogance, what nonsense? Internet knight in the image? laughing
          Quote: JACOB
          Thus, the minimum amount of capital investment in drilling alone should be $ 300 billion.

          Quote: JACOB
          I'm not even talking about the existing infrastructure for unconventional production of non-conventional gas ...

          And the men then in Shel and Exxon do not know ... Urgently write there or Yanukovych !!
          1. wax
            wax 2 February 2013 01: 10 New
            +2
            But the men then in Shel and Exxon do not know ...

            They know very well, therefore, they have thrown off the lion's share of the costs of the Ukrainian government.
          2. Allegedly
            Allegedly 2 February 2013 03: 03 New
            0
            Quote: Kievite
            photo of the breakthrough of a settling dam in France


            No, this is an accident at a plant in Hungary, just one accident, just one plant ...

            And here there are tens or hundreds of thousands of wells, and this is from only one field, and the water around will be poisoned for tens of kilometers, the groundwater will be full of water, you can’t even wash or wash this water. I'm not talking about flora in general.

            At a time when, around the world, realizing that shale gas production will have a detrimental effect on the environment, they are abandoning field development, the Ukrainian government, on the contrary, is encouraging criminal projects.
    2. ikrut
      ikrut 1 February 2013 22: 36 New
      +6
      Quote: Kievite
      I realized this is a forum of shale gas specialists ...

      Do you really want to believe in fairy tales, the good Santa Claus and the evil wolf? And it’s a shame that others do not share your exalted faith, but try, on the basis of known facts, to show that you can never get a carriage from an ordinary pumpkin, no matter how you conjure it. I understand you. I, too, in childhood was somewhat upset when I realized that not all desires are fulfilled by themselves.
      1. Kievan
        Kievan 2 February 2013 04: 19 New
        -4
        Quote: ikrut
        Do you really want to believe in fairy tales, the good Santa Claus and the evil wolf? And it’s a shame that others do not share your exalted faith, but try, on the basis of known facts, to show that you can never get a carriage from an ordinary pumpkin, no matter how you conjure it. I understand you. I, too, in childhood was somewhat upset when I realized that not all desires are fulfilled by themselves.

        Are you all crazy? One of which is about arrogance, the other is about fairy tales, faith and about childhood ... What are you smoking here?
        Let the wells be drilled, and there it will be seen. Anyway, here everyone reprints information from open sources, from those that are closer to them in faith laughing
        1. Allegedly
          Allegedly 2 February 2013 05: 20 New
          +2
          Quote: Kievite
          Are you all crazy?


          I remember one Ukrainian saying - a fool gets richer in the Duma.

          Oil giant Shell and Nadra Yuzovskaya LLC received significant concessions from the Ukrainian authorities for the development of shale gas fields in the Donetsk and Kharkov regions. Thus, investors will be exempted from paying environmental taxes, fees for special water use, fees for land, customs fees, rental fees for gas production, targeted surcharges to the current gas tariff, fees for compulsory pension insurance for shale gas production at Yuzovskaya area (Kharkivska and Donetsk region), writes "Correspondent" with reference to "Interfax".

          Such provisions are indicated in the draft agreement, which was published by the deputy of the Kharkiv regional council from "Batkivshchyna" Ivan Varchenko.

          According to the document, investors will also not pay fees levied on the sale of foreign currency from mobile services, the acquisition of real estate and the alienation of cars.
          Thus, Shell and Nadra Yuzovskaya will pay only income tax, VAT and pay subsurface use fees when developing deposits.

          Regardless of changes in Ukrainian legislation, the profit tax rate for project investors will be 19%, and since 2014 - 16%. At the same time, the subsurface use fee will be 1,25% for gas and 2% for oil.

          At the same time, the draft agreement provides for sanctions against Ukraine, in case of untimely VAT refund - a penalty in the amount of 120% of the NBU discount rate for each day of delay.

          According to the published document, Shell and Nadra Yuzovskaya will administer the payment by their employees of individual income tax and a mandatory social insurance contribution.

          It is worth noting that in addition to easing the tax regime, the authorities made a number of concessions to investors. So, the project participating companies are not affected by any regulatory documents of the Government of Ukraine, local authorities, if they restrict the rights of investors. Inspections of Shell and Nadra Yuzovskaya’s activities should be carried out by one state agency no more than once every three years, their duration may not be more than 10 days.



          It’s not possible to impose such conditions on every country with the Papuans, and here Ukraine itself climbed into the loop, oh I want to see how everything goes on there ...
          1. Kievan
            Kievan 2 February 2013 15: 25 New
            -1
            Quote: JACOB
            It’s not possible to impose such conditions on every country with the Papuans, and here Ukraine itself climbed into the loop, oh I want to see how everything goes on there ...

            Such conditions because they invest at least hundreds of millions in a very risky business. But even without shale gas, any business with any of our government is risky. The power has changed - and pay everyone all over again - and if not, they won’t let me work ... That's the conditions in the contract. I think you all know this without me, but you have such a job ...
        2. ikrut
          ikrut 2 February 2013 15: 56 New
          +2
          Quote: Kievite
          Let the wells be drilled, and there it will be seen.

          Let them drill, instruct the rigs on fertile chernozems, dirtied them, pump scarce fresh water into these wells, ditch artesian springs, and then it will be seen. Also that is already seen in the United States of America. But it will only be seen if there is no head. They do not look with their eyes, but with MIND.
          1. Kievan
            Kievan 2 February 2013 17: 12 New
            -1
            Quote: ikrut
            Let them drill, instruct the rigs on fertile chernozems, dirtied them, pump scarce fresh water into these wells, ditch artesian springs, and then it will be seen. Also that is already seen in the United States of America. But it will only be seen if there is no head. They do not look with their eyes, but with MIND.

            At the same time, Rosneft widely used hydraulic fracturing, as of 2009-2010, Rosneft remained among the largest customers of the oilfield service company Schlumberger, specializing in hydraulic fracturing. In early November 2006, at the Priobskoye oil field operated by RN-Yuganskneftegaz LLC (a subsidiary of the state-owned company Rosneft, which gained control of the main asset of Yukos - Yuganskneftegaz), with the participation of specialists from Newco Well Service, the largest Russian oil fracturing. 864 tons of proppant (proppant) were pumped into the reservoir. The operation took seven hours and was broadcast live over the Internet to the office of Yuganskneftegaz [4]. At present, Rosneft is doing more than 2 thousand hydraulic fracturing operations per year; the vast majority of new wells are commissioned with hydraulic fracturing

            The Gasland documentary, an independent study by the author, Josh Fox, covers a range of environmental issues related to fracturing. According to the creator of the film, hydraulic fracturing leads to the appearance of many impurities harmful to humans in well water, including benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and dimethylbenzenes. [7] For each fracturing operation, 80 to 300 tons of chemicals are used. As described in the film, in places where hydraulic fracturing is used, water becomes unsuitable for drinking, people get sick more often, hair falls out in animals, and air quality deteriorates.

            Soon after the release of the film, scientists found in it a number of contradictions to the facts. The film refutes the refutation every minute, all controversial and inaccurate statements are commented on from the point of view of both science and law. [8]

            Also in the documentary film “Truthland,” a Pennsylvania heroine talks about her journey through gas fields that use hydraulic fracturing technology. The woman communicates with environmentalists, officials, local residents and concludes that the allegations in the film "Gasland" are untrue. [9]
            1. Kaa
              Kaa 3 February 2013 05: 04 New
              0
              Three skulls is already serious. A rare bird will fly to mid-Dnieper such an impressive result. Maybe the address was wrong?
    3. uhjpysq1
      uhjpysq1 3 February 2013 09: 52 New
      -1
      ))))) from peas and then more gas)))))))))
  19. georg737577
    georg737577 2 February 2013 04: 40 New
    0
    Considering the ecological aspect of the problem - a crap idea. I am afraid of another - that money will be stolen and gas will not be found, then thank God, but if wells are drilled and, under the guise of gas production, they begin to "bury" toxic or radioactive waste in them, and our leaders become morons, their mother will be sold for a penny. .. Then it will be crappy ...