The analytical program "However," with Mikhail Leontyev 29 January 2013
From the social gatherings in Davos, where the world’s beau monde gathers every year, it’s ridiculous to wait for any insights and recipes for salvation. However, it is a good indicator of the sentiment of the world economic official.
At the forum in Davos, three scenarios for Russia were presented, commissioned by the forum mainly by domestic experts. All three scenarios turned out to be more or less pessimistic in the context of an equally pessimistic external conjuncture. But the most pessimistic scenario turned out to be that presented by the former Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin.
"Among the conditions of this scenario are low growth rates in Russia and non-institutional reforms. The price of oil may drop to 60 dollars, which significantly puts our Russian budget in a difficult position," he said.
From the cartoon "Winnie the Pooh": "A pitiful sight! A heartbreaking sight! A nightmare!"
“Even whatever oil prices are, they will not give such an increase in revenues. Everything. We have exhausted this source,” said A. Kudrin.
From the cartoon "Winnie the Pooh": "Well, well, I thought so. From this side is no better."
Interestingly, Kudrin is telling the truth. As usual. Here, everything that he sees, he says. With the accuracy of an intelligent accountant. No more and no less.
In the same interview in Davos, Kudrin in the interview with Spiegel repeated his claims to the current Russian military budget: "These people forgot that the Soviet Union suffered a collapse primarily because of the arms race ... It is impossible for us to repeat this mistake today. The longer we delay political and economic reform, the worse. "
Where pop and where is the parish? And what kind of reforms are these that abolish the minimum necessary expenditures on national security ?! In fact, Kudrin is demanding the abandonment of the only essentially existing development program, which is the current state defense order. In fact, all the Davos screenwriters in Russia are united by one thing: they proceed from the fact that the Russian government will under no circumstances resort to active structural industrial policy. Essentially, top-controlled re-industrialization. That is, they come from this. And why should we proceed?
Nouriel Roubini, an economic guru, the only wizard of Davos, who predicted the current crisis, once again predicts an economic catastrophe that can start anywhere. Because of the huge American debt, the giant Chinese bubble, or, what is most worrying about it, the collapse of the eurozone due to problems with Italy and Spain.
In fact, Rubini is such an American global Kudrin. Economic akyns: what they see is about that and they sing. Without having any idea about where it came from and where it will take out. These people are deeply systemic. And it is impossible to understand from within the system crisis system. And get out of it inside the system is impossible. This is the main lesson of Davos. Davos is a disease, not a doctor. And the doctors there will not be allowed.
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