Nagorno-Karabakh: there will be no war
What is today?
The indiscriminate fire of snipers buried in trenches behind sandbags, through a controversial line running through the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, seems to be something commonplace for residents of the region. People here are used to shooting - for 19 years after the signing of the Ceasefire Agreement in 1994.
Recently, however, the situation seems to be deteriorating. The journalist says that both parties seemed to be aiming at “thawing” the old conflict and are counting on an “unconditional victory” in a terrible armed confrontation.
What was the reason for the change of moods of the Armenian and Azerbaijani sides? First, the journalist considers, the approaching quarter-century date coinciding, and secondly, with the presidential elections in Armenia. Thirdly, the resettlement of Armenian refugees from Syria is precisely on the disputed territory. All this fuels “boiling indignation” and raises fears that a new major armed conflict is about to begin.
The problem of this lengthy conflict is explained by the experts by the fact that neither side is satisfied with the international recognition that the enclave is Azerbaijani territory, but is under the control of Armenia. No one - neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan - does not go into a protracted conflict, even to symbolic concessions. All negotiation attempts come to a standstill.
Carol Williams believes that if you look at the map of the Caucasus region, you can get an idea of the manipulations of Joseph Vissarionovich Stalin - who, in fact, is the father of the conflict, the creator of its roots. After all, the Armenians managed to prevent the aggressive attacks of the Persians, Turks and Russians for almost two thousand years, and yet their autonomous enclave was incorporated by Stalin into the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic - after the Bolsheviks began to control the region at the beginning of the 1920's. Young Stalin, people's commissar for national affairs, carried out the principle of “divide and rule” on the ground, allowing him to keep nationalism in check.
Ethnic grievances came out when the Soviet reformer, Mikhail Gorbachev, “opened up Pandora’s box” in the form of a “perestroika and glasnost” campaign. All public troubles, hidden before the carpet, burst out.
But why did isolated, poor and far from oil, Nagorno-Karabakh become such a welcome piece of territory for both sides?
Lawrence Sheets, director of the International Crisis Group for the South Caucasus, believes that Nagorno-Karabakh is a strategic territory where Europe and Asia meet. According to Sheets, this is an incredibly important trade route, not only for energy, but for shipping and other purposes. Azerbaijan and Armenia are in a state of war for more than twenty years, the expert says, and now the fire has ceased there, but if the conflict breaks out again on a wider scale, a regional war may well begin, which will spread to regional powers.
The journalist notes that American oil companies have significant investments in Azerbaijan, but also have important “emotional” ties with Armenia: after all, many representatives of Armenians now live in the United States, and they value their ancestral homeland.
As for Russia, it needs a regional world to quietly carry out trade and naval operations in the Caspian and Black Seas.
Expand the issue to economic ties between Baku and Tehran - and you will get another possible participant in the armed conflict.
And then there's Turkey. This country finally expressed its readiness to hold talks on restoring relations with Armenia after almost a century-long break. However, Ankara insists that Armenia abandon the disputed enclave - and as a precondition.
What can the Armenians or Azerbaijanis win from stirring up a conflict? Journalism writes that, in the opinion of sensible observers, absolutely nothing. She also notices that the dispute between the parties often borders on hysterics.
For example, recently the official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan, Elman Abdullayev, accused Armenia of “provocation” in resolving the issue of Armenian refugees who had moved from Syria to Nagorno-Karabakh. In his opinion, this is an attempt to "change the demographic situation in the region."
Robert Avetisyan, the Permanent Representative of Nagorno-Karabakh in the diplomatic mission of the enclave in Washington, condemned these claims as an attempt by Azerbaijan to politicize the humanitarian rescue action. After all, the Armenians fled from the bombing of Aleppo. There are now about 80.000 ethnic Armenians living there. Thousands of them turned to Armenia for help, and only about three dozen families settled in Nagorno-Karabakh, Avetisyan said.
To the article by Carol Williams, one can add the fact that the Azerbaijani side threatens to bring down civilian planes bound for Artsakh. The fact is that recently the director of the Azerbaijan State Administration of Civil aviation Arif Mammadov saidthat Azerbaijan will destroy the aircraft, landing at Stepanakert airport. The Azerbaijani side even complained to the International Civil Aviation Organization. “We reported that our airspace over Karabakh is closed. According to the law “On Aviation”, the physical destruction of airplanes landing on this territory is planned, ”said Mr. Mamedov.
A member of the Armenian delegation to PACE Naira Zohrabyan drew the attention of the Commissioner for Human Rights to the threat of the Azerbaijani side to shoot down civilian aircraft. Thomas Hammarberg replied that such statements were a matter of concern.
On the same issue acted and David Babayan, head of the Main Information Department of the NKR President’s Office: “If Azerbaijan starts to shoot down civilian aircraft, then this will mean only one thing - the resumption of hostilities”. According to him, if Azerbaijan takes such a step, it will not remain unanswered.
The journalists asked Babayan whether it could happen that Artsakh would not launch the airport. Babayan said that the work of the airport is important for the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, and it will never give up its intention. At the same time, David Babayan stressed that Artsakh can ensure the security of its airspace.
Today the Minister of Defense of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic Movses Hakobyan declares: The situation on the contact line of the Armed Forces of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and Azerbaijan has not changed since the beginning of the year. He also noted the tension that arose because of the NKR’s intention to use Stepanakert airport. At the same time, the minister stressed that the Karabakh Armed Forces are ready to respond to any encroachment: “The situation is under control. There is no need to doubt: the sun will fulfill all the tasks with honor. ”
Armenian political scientist Hrant Melik-Shahnazaryan, commenting on the possible development of events related to the Karabakh conflict, expressed an opinion at the January press conference that the progress in the process of resolving the Karabakh conflict is unrealistic. According to the political analyst, the upcoming events will be due not so much to the progress in the negotiations as to a new stage in the domestic political arena of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Highlights Scientist call presidential elections, which in the coming year will be held in both Armenia and Azerbaijan. They will affect possible scenarios.
The analyst said that the “Aliyev regime” will once again make an attempt to divert public attention from internal problems through the Karabakh conflict. Hrant Melik-Shankhnazaryan noted that the leadership of Azerbaijan realizes that by “fanning” the idea of an external threat and having many internal political and domestic problems, it can consolidate society around the government, which is convenient for maintaining power, but at the same time will generate tension around the problem.
As for the Armenian side, is knownthat the Armenian Armed Forces 25 and 26 of January bombarded positions of units of the Azerbaijani army in four districts: near the villages of Shikhlar of the Agdam region, Tapgaragoyunlu of the Goranboy region, Kuropatkino of the Khojavand district; shelling was also carried out from nameless heights located in the territory of the Fizuli region. Data provided by the Azerbaijani side. The shelling was suppressed by return fire.
The representative of the Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army, in turn, reported that in a week, from 20 to 26 in January, Azerbaijan violated the armistice regime about two hundred times. Divisions of the Azerbaijani forces from weapons different caliber fired in the direction of the Armenian positions over seven hundred shots. And the air forces of Azerbaijan made several training flights along the entire contact line.
Vladimir Kazimirov, Chairman of the Council of Veterans of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Russian ambassador in retirement, in 1992-1996, the head of the mediation mission of Russia, plenipotentiary representative of the President of the Russian Federation on Nagorno-Karabakh and co-chairman of the OSCE Minsk Group пишет:
Baku cannot count on a blitzkrieg in difficult local conditions, and this, according to Comrade Kazimirov, gives enough time for international intervention. Moreover, in his opinion, the fault of Baku in the international community will be undoubted.
As a result, pressure from international organizations and large countries will force Baku to curtail the offensive.
There is also an economic component of the war, which will not be:
Given the fact that millions of Armenians and Azerbaijanis live in Russia, the author writes further, she cannot be removed to a new conflict.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at a recent briefing in Moscow сказалthat Russia, together with other members of the OSCE Minsk Group, will continue efforts to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: “If we want to resolve the issue in practice, then we must act as co-chairs of the OSCE MG.” He clarified that the OSCE Minsk Group’s co-chairs had been working for several years to prepare a treaty to resolve the conflict, but the parties did not agree on the items of the final document. According to Lavrov, the foreign ministers of the parties to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict continue to meet. The OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs proposed a truncated version of the settlement document to the parties, but so far there are no results.
Analyst Alexander Novik highlights the issue of Russia's image in resolving the conflict - or rather, the question of how this image is sometimes shaped by external actors.
Expert notesthat in recent years, both in Azerbaijan and in Armenia, there have been statements about the ineffectiveness of the work of the Minsk Group. The criticism also affects the representative format of the co-chairmanship, and states the negativity for Azerbaijan of the “mood” of the co-chairs to maintain the status quo in the conflict zone. The theme of the low efficiency of the negotiation process within the OSCE and its “imitation” is increasingly heard in the Armenian expert community. Interestingly, specific co-chair countries are under attack by critics.
Chairman of the Armenian opposition party "Republic" Aram Sargsyan argues that "as long as this problem is resolved under the" roof "of Russia, there will be no real result.
Azerbaijani political analyst Wafa Guluzade says that "Russia can kindle a war between Azerbaijan and Armenia or create a threat to Azerbaijan from the north, since the 100-thousandth Russian army stands at the northern borders of Azerbaijan."
As a result of the “information processing”, many Azerbaijanis are convinced, the author writes that their country lost the war not to Karabakh and not even Armenia, but it turns out ... to Russia. A journalist is told to Azerbaijanis that their country was at war with Russia. Consequently, Russia won the war. Who is threatening today? Again Moscow.
Russia makes many peacemaking efforts today as a co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group.
Yes, Russia's position on the parties to the Karabakh conflict is not easy, the author acknowledges. After all, the Russian economic and military assistance to Armenia was the reason for the cooling of relations between Russia and Azerbaijan. However, about 140 of thousands of Russians live in Azerbaijan, and in Russia (according to the census of 2002 of the year), 621 is a thousand of Azerbaijanis. And there is a visa-free travel regime between the countries. Economic cooperation is actively developing between Russia and Azerbaijan, especially in the energy sector.
Thus, the frequent talk of analysts and political scientists, especially Azerbaijani and Armenian, about the likely war over Nagorno-Karabakh should be attributed to attempts more “emotional” (as Carol Williams would put it) than real ones. Azerbaijan will not shoot down civilian aircraft, nor will Armenian politicians make any “provocations” on the controversial line. Another thing is that before the elections and on the eve of the 25-year date, it is possible to “aggravate” at the level of political discussions or publications in the media.
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