Pakistan: Canadian Spring
Pakistan has an attack of a revolutionary military disease. There are many symptoms. The badies of Pakistan and neighboring India because of Kashmir have reached the point that the Indian police advise their citizens to prepare for a nuclear war: stock up on medicines, water, food, lanterns, candles and go down into deep cellars. Issued and distributed among citizens instruction, which describes in detail how to behave during nuclear explosions. Indian officials seriously Recommend residents of the state of Jammu and Kashmir to build "shelters in which the whole family can live for two weeks." Islamabad threatens Delhi with nuclear weapons. Once the "enemy" penetrates its territory, the button will be pressed.
The second reason Islamabad has become seething is the return home after the seven-year absence of Tahir Qadri, the Islamist theologian and leader of the Minhajul Quran movement (“The Koran Path”), a man who has lived in Canada for seven years. And if the threat of atomic war can be perceived so far only as a pretext for a new instruction, then Mr. Kadri’s vigorous activity led to the launch of the Arab Spring in the country.
American analyst, professor of journalism at Stanford University, Pulitzer Prize winner Joel Brinkley in an article published in "San Francisco Chronicle", rightly notes that against the backdrop of the bloody violence in Algeria and Mali, Pakistani unrest is relatively unnoticed. In fact, no one paid them proper attention, he said.
However, the events of the last days in Pakistan are extremely important. After all, Pakistan, the professor says, is a completely untenable state - and at the same time a state possessing nuclear weapons. The analyst writes that this country has already collapsed into the abyss. Where else can you see a Muslim fundamentalist cleric who, still a Canadian, has managed to attract tens of thousands of fans to a protest rally — and then call for the dissolution of the government? And, the author mockingly notes, this man, before starting the speech, climbed inside the cargo container with bulletproof glass.
The Pakistani government, according to the American journalist, is a collection of absurdities. Every single ruler - both the current and the previous ones - is mired in corruption, from the heels of shoes to the ends of hair. For example, two years ago, the court ordered the then Prime Minister, Yusuf Reza Gilani, to launch an investigation into corruption against President Asif Ali Zardari - and at that time every Pakistani knew that Zardari, like most government officials, was completely immersed in his hobby - taking bribes. Since his wife, Benazir Bhutto, visited the prime ministers, Zardari became famous as “Mr. Ten Percent” - because he managed to get kickbacks from every commercial transaction.
Gilani did not listen to the judges and refused to start a case against Zardari, saying that the president should be granted immunity from prosecution. He just mocked the court. One judge remarked: “Submission to the court is not a game of chess or hide and seek.”
Then Gilani resigned, and Raja Pervez Ashraf, formerly Minister of Information Technology, took his place. The court appealed to him with the same request: help us in the case of the Zardari corruption charge, we need assistance in obtaining bank documents from Switzerland.
However, the court does not mean much for this prime minister either. Now the court accuses him of corruption. This is almost comical, the journalist writes. The power in the country seems to be completely paralyzed. It is so inefficient that the entire government should be recognized as incompetent.
A few days ago, an officer from a state anti-corruption agency dealing with a case against Ashraf was found hanged in a barracks. Police called it suicide.
At the same time in the north-west of Pakistan, thousands of demonstrators shouted anti-government slogans: 15 residents were shot in their homes by security forces.
The bosses from Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) for a long time did not respond to the investigation into the cases of seven people arrested in 2007 year. The court decided to release them. However, all seven people simply disappeared. Finally, on Monday the week before last, an ISI lawyer acknowledged a “lack of evidence” against seven people, but said that they were arrested “for moral reasons”.
The Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry, objected to the “intelligence officers” from ISI, that their office simply cannot detain suspects for an indefinite period and illegally - in particular, for some “moral reasons”. The judge was indignant:
But, despite years of heinous abuse, the American author continues, neither the court nor any of the government has ever tried to curb this renegade spy agency.
Why do we have to take care of all this? - asks the professor. - In the end, Pakistan is not the only such state in the world. Think about what is on the world map of Somalia, Sudan, Haiti, Zimbabwe. True, other failed states, like Afghanistan, Chad, Nigeria, Uganda, do not possess nuclear weapons. But Pakistan is the only state that has atomic bombs - and at the same time it is marked by the clearly expressed intention of the rebels to overthrow the ridiculous and ineffective government. Yes, by the way, reminds the professor, do not forget that the top leaders of Al-Qaida also live there, on the eastern outskirts of Pakistan.
And if the Taliban fails to overthrow the government, they will almost certainly seize nuclear weapons. A terrible picture is being painted, the professor writes ... And now for them, the Taliban, the time has come. They just look at what is happening. With smiles on their faces. Their goal, says the American, is to destabilize the state.
And the Canadian, the initiator of the Pakistani "marches of millions", obviously destabilizes him.
This theologian, says Lyubov Lyulko (Pravda.ru) with Canadian citizenship - a former professor at Punjab University and a specialist in constitutional law. In 1999, he supported Pervez Musharraf’s rebellion, but emigrated from Pakistan in 2006 due to disagreements with the general.
What did he do in democratic Canada? He collected money for the needs of the Islamic community of Pakistan. The fact is that in the West this theologian is listed in the "moderate Islamists." (However, note that if Barack Obama has already officially recognized the Taliban, and the Muslim Brotherhood is ruling Egypt, then al-Qaeda will probably be considered moderate the other day).
L Lyulko indicates that Mr. Kadri emerged in Pakistan 23 December 2012, just the day after the assassination of the Minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Bashir Ahmad Bilouur, a staunch opponent of the Taliban.
Already in December it became clear that the Arab Spring is coming in Pakistan.
After the bloody 10 terrorist attack of January in Shiite Quetta, where the country's authorities once again distinguished themselves by inaction, the revolutionary Kadri went to Lahore. From there, on January 14 at the head of the “march of millions” (50.000 people), he arrived in Islamabad - on the street where government offices are located.
Then he and the demonstrators swore on the Koran that they would remain in Islamabad until the complete victory of the revolution.
Federal Minister of Information and Broadcasting, Kamar Zaman Kariya, responded that Kadri’s demands were unconstitutional. The inclusion of the army and the judiciary in the consultation process on the establishment of the Provisional Government is not provided for in the Constitution.
A kadri says:
Kadri is a peaceful revolutionary. Therefore, the government buildings and protests were without incident. Participants of the "march of millions" set up tents near police fences. Mobile tents and toilets appeared near the canvas tents. Participants of the “march” sang and danced, rejoicing at the theme that “spring” had finally arrived in their country. From Canada.
At the rally, writes browser "Centuries" Andrei Pravov, it was announced the decision of the Supreme Court to remove from office a corrupt official Raja Pervez Ashraf, followed by another fifteen high-ranking officials. This suggests that the Supreme Court supports the main demand of the protesters.
Ashraf himself, as before, denies the accusations. He is not going to leave the post.
On the fifth day, the authorities agreed with the "moderate Islamist", and the action was curtailed. The authorities have promised that parliamentary elections will be held in accordance with the constitution and in time. In the meantime, a transitional government will be formed in the country that will suit all political forces. "March" ended.
The speed with which the theologian, who came from Canada, managed to organize a large-scale protest rally, shows that the situation in Pakistan has reached a boiling point: boiling water is about to spill over the edge of the pan. That is why, according to Comrade Pravov, the theologian’s calls for the eradication of the “feudal corruption system” and the holding of a “democratic revolution” have fallen on well-fertilized soil. No doubt, the seeds of the economic crisis will also grow. There are interruptions in electricity and gasoline in the country. And this - not to mention the constant bloody "friction" between the Sunni and Shiite communities.
And in addition, there is also the Kashmir problem with India, accompanied by the presence of nuclear weapons both in Pakistan and in the neighboring country.
Who is behind the Canadian theologian?
It may well be that the military: after all, Tahir Kadri himself said about the "supervision of the army." In addition, the “march of millions” was highly appreciated by General Pervez Musharraf. Rumor has it that the military and finance the actions of a fiery anti-corruption fighter.
According to another version, the theologian received money for organizing an expensive “march of millions” in the United States. After all, A. Pravov remarks, from the point of view of Washington, the “green” rebel promotes the return of the military to Islammabad, and those will help the command of the “antiterrorist coalition” to improve relations with the Taliban in Afghanistan. The United States is really interested in establishing order in Pakistan on the eve of the impending withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. And here they will help local people in the form. It is necessary only to arrange so that they took power. Therefore, if the “Arab spring” in Pakistan is not paid by the military, then, therefore, its treasury is in Washington.
Analyst Sergey Strokan (Kommersant) believes that the version that behind the "green" leader of the protesters are figures from the army elite, received weighty confirmation. It is not only a statement about the support of an Islamic theologian who followed the “march” from Pervez Musharraf, but also that the general said that he would speed up his return to his homeland. At the same time, he expressed the hope that the security forces would not go against the people. It is also interesting that the general called on the military command to take more decisive actions, saying that the leadership of Pakistan has lost the right to rule the country.
This is not a rumor: the general, who has been living in London since 2008, was interviewed "BBC"in which he explicitly stated that he was going to return home and “help his party” during the elections in May of this year. And this is despite the fact that Pakistan’s law enforcement agencies are seeking the arrest of Musharraf, who is suspected of involvement in the killing of Benazir Bhutto.
Rather, it is in the hands of the Americans to intensify the Taliban in Pakistan - just at a time when the conflict over Kashmir is intensifying, soldiers are dying and there is terrible talk about a nuclear war, and the Indian police issue instructions for their citizens. Otherwise, the Pakistani government, having previously received good from representatives of the United States and Afghanistan, would not decide to release all the Afghan Taliban now languishing behind bars — led by Mullah Baradar, man of XXXX in the Taliban leadership, whom Washington recently considered one of the most dangerous world terrorists. Were specially carried out talks, after which Foreign Secretary Jalil Jilani came out to the journalists and said that everything, the issue of the liberation of the Taliban was resolved.
Therefore, the version of the money from the United States is inconclusive. Money from the United States is no longer flowing in that generous flow, as it was before the crisis. Or some money was, but not for those purposes. Washington is more willing to create chaos in Pakistan than order. Here America in one fell swoop of two birds with one stone: the Muslims will start cutting each other, which they love very much in the White House, and the Pentagon will have a weighty reason to put pressure on India: fight, they say, come on with terrorism. Massacre will begin in India. All region will flash. All that was missing was the war with Pakistan - due to the same Kashmir. What can we say about the economy of India, a member of the BRICS, staggered ...
Dmitry Sedov ("Fund of Strategic Culture") believes that "the Americans would like to see a terrorist monster emitting a constant threat of Delhi near India." With Indians increasing their economic influence, it would be much easier to talk.
As for the role of the Canadian Tahir Kadri in this, he, we note, made it clear that he would work according to the “Tahrir Square” scenario. There was a time when other short-sighted "experts" found M. Mursi a "moderate Islamist." Today, the Egyptian president occupies a middle position between the pharaoh and the caliph. There is no way to define the border here, but the Muslim Brotherhood and their henchmen, such as the recently formed Qaeda al-Jihad in Egypt gang, have already declared Mursi the governor of the Most High. It is easy to draw a parallel with Kadri: if the military brings him to power, this purely nominal figure (like Mursi) will turn out in Pakistan as a kind of “all-union elder” formally expressing the aspirations of the people - except for the part that advocates liberalism and democracy. There will be no democracy in Pakistan: Tahrir Square is the road to Islamism. Indeed, in Egypt - the Sharia constitution.
If it is true that the terrorists in Pakistan are financed by the Saudis, the “Tahrir Square” scenario seems even more likely. Pakistan may become another country, modeled after Saudi Arabia. True, with nuclear weapons - which is quite perspicacious analysts from the United States are very afraid. The Saudis have oil and money, but no nuclear bombs. And Pakistan and adjacent India have bombs and missiles.
However, the coming to power of the military in Pakistan - even if it takes place, in the framework of the “spring” or through elections, is not the main danger that the Pakistanis are experiencing. In the end, 50 thousands of people at the rally - not all of Pakistan. In addition, the rally ended formally: a citizen of Canada, who was speaking from a bulletproof booth, did not win any such convincing victory.
Arif Rafik, Associate Institute for the Middle East and an employee of a consulting company specializing in international politics and security issues, in an article in "The Diplomat" January 26 writes that, at the moment, the greatest threat to Pakistan’s democracy is not military, but ineffective government of the country by civilian authorities.
Pakistan, he writes, is essentially bankrupt; he is mired in external debt. Lack of energy undermined Pakistani industry. State-owned enterprises spray budget funds. The economy is falling apart on the background of constant political violence. Justice does not work. From here, most of the middle class in Pakistan views the army and the judicial system as their saviors. However, the army is now out of work, and the Supreme Court does not have the capacity (or desire) to work effectively.
The author does not know what the future holds for Pakistan. The next government must prove - and in a short time - that democracy and good governance are not mutually exclusive. It will be a tough battle, the analyst writes. If it is lost, democracy in Pakistan will turn out to be only a passing vision ...
German expert on Asia Günther Knabe surethat democracy here and does not smell. The protest movement of Tahir Kadri was inspired by the military, who recently began to lose influence on political life. Through the lips of an Islamic theologian agitating the masses against the government, the military plans to thwart the regular elections scheduled for spring and disrupt the constitutional process. It will be a coup. The sooner the better for the military. They favor extraordinary elections, the creation of a "transitional government". They benefit from the strengthening of the confrontation between India and Pakistan - because of Kashmir. The country's weak economic position also benefits them. Huge financial resources for the campaign of Tahir Kadri (today he activated television and the distribution of printed campaign materials) in Pakistan have only one power - the army, the German analyst believes. It is worth the situation in Islamabad to get out of control, as the army will immediately take decisive measures "in order to restore order."
But the revolutionary green scenario in Pakistan, Mr. Knabe, finds it unlikely. He predicts that the government will delay negotiations with the Canadian and wait for the recession of the protests. In addition, influential opposition political parties distanced themselves from the Islamist, a very few democrat and liberal.
Thus, Tahir Kadri seems to be nothing more than a convenient mouthpiece for the military preparing to take power - at the right moment for the coup, when the economy is reeling, there is not enough gasoline and electricity, the power is mired in corruption, the Supreme Court cannot or cannot act. Islamist terrorism flourished in the cities in lush colors, and people are jailed in arbitrariness, with the wording "for moral reasons." At the same time, the Kashmir issue escalated - so much so that it came to nuclear threats. There were all the prerequisites for Pervez Musharraf to take power. By the way, he has experience of her bloodless capture.
The second reason Islamabad has become seething is the return home after the seven-year absence of Tahir Qadri, the Islamist theologian and leader of the Minhajul Quran movement (“The Koran Path”), a man who has lived in Canada for seven years. And if the threat of atomic war can be perceived so far only as a pretext for a new instruction, then Mr. Kadri’s vigorous activity led to the launch of the Arab Spring in the country.
American analyst, professor of journalism at Stanford University, Pulitzer Prize winner Joel Brinkley in an article published in "San Francisco Chronicle", rightly notes that against the backdrop of the bloody violence in Algeria and Mali, Pakistani unrest is relatively unnoticed. In fact, no one paid them proper attention, he said.
However, the events of the last days in Pakistan are extremely important. After all, Pakistan, the professor says, is a completely untenable state - and at the same time a state possessing nuclear weapons. The analyst writes that this country has already collapsed into the abyss. Where else can you see a Muslim fundamentalist cleric who, still a Canadian, has managed to attract tens of thousands of fans to a protest rally — and then call for the dissolution of the government? And, the author mockingly notes, this man, before starting the speech, climbed inside the cargo container with bulletproof glass.
The Pakistani government, according to the American journalist, is a collection of absurdities. Every single ruler - both the current and the previous ones - is mired in corruption, from the heels of shoes to the ends of hair. For example, two years ago, the court ordered the then Prime Minister, Yusuf Reza Gilani, to launch an investigation into corruption against President Asif Ali Zardari - and at that time every Pakistani knew that Zardari, like most government officials, was completely immersed in his hobby - taking bribes. Since his wife, Benazir Bhutto, visited the prime ministers, Zardari became famous as “Mr. Ten Percent” - because he managed to get kickbacks from every commercial transaction.
Gilani did not listen to the judges and refused to start a case against Zardari, saying that the president should be granted immunity from prosecution. He just mocked the court. One judge remarked: “Submission to the court is not a game of chess or hide and seek.”
Then Gilani resigned, and Raja Pervez Ashraf, formerly Minister of Information Technology, took his place. The court appealed to him with the same request: help us in the case of the Zardari corruption charge, we need assistance in obtaining bank documents from Switzerland.
However, the court does not mean much for this prime minister either. Now the court accuses him of corruption. This is almost comical, the journalist writes. The power in the country seems to be completely paralyzed. It is so inefficient that the entire government should be recognized as incompetent.
A few days ago, an officer from a state anti-corruption agency dealing with a case against Ashraf was found hanged in a barracks. Police called it suicide.
At the same time in the north-west of Pakistan, thousands of demonstrators shouted anti-government slogans: 15 residents were shot in their homes by security forces.
The bosses from Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) for a long time did not respond to the investigation into the cases of seven people arrested in 2007 year. The court decided to release them. However, all seven people simply disappeared. Finally, on Monday the week before last, an ISI lawyer acknowledged a “lack of evidence” against seven people, but said that they were arrested “for moral reasons”.
The Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry, objected to the “intelligence officers” from ISI, that their office simply cannot detain suspects for an indefinite period and illegally - in particular, for some “moral reasons”. The judge was indignant:
"Morally? Yes, so they can jail anyone, even me ... In their opinion, all people are guilty! ”
But, despite years of heinous abuse, the American author continues, neither the court nor any of the government has ever tried to curb this renegade spy agency.
Why do we have to take care of all this? - asks the professor. - In the end, Pakistan is not the only such state in the world. Think about what is on the world map of Somalia, Sudan, Haiti, Zimbabwe. True, other failed states, like Afghanistan, Chad, Nigeria, Uganda, do not possess nuclear weapons. But Pakistan is the only state that has atomic bombs - and at the same time it is marked by the clearly expressed intention of the rebels to overthrow the ridiculous and ineffective government. Yes, by the way, reminds the professor, do not forget that the top leaders of Al-Qaida also live there, on the eastern outskirts of Pakistan.
And if the Taliban fails to overthrow the government, they will almost certainly seize nuclear weapons. A terrible picture is being painted, the professor writes ... And now for them, the Taliban, the time has come. They just look at what is happening. With smiles on their faces. Their goal, says the American, is to destabilize the state.
And the Canadian, the initiator of the Pakistani "marches of millions", obviously destabilizes him.
This theologian, says Lyubov Lyulko (Pravda.ru) with Canadian citizenship - a former professor at Punjab University and a specialist in constitutional law. In 1999, he supported Pervez Musharraf’s rebellion, but emigrated from Pakistan in 2006 due to disagreements with the general.
What did he do in democratic Canada? He collected money for the needs of the Islamic community of Pakistan. The fact is that in the West this theologian is listed in the "moderate Islamists." (However, note that if Barack Obama has already officially recognized the Taliban, and the Muslim Brotherhood is ruling Egypt, then al-Qaeda will probably be considered moderate the other day).
L Lyulko indicates that Mr. Kadri emerged in Pakistan 23 December 2012, just the day after the assassination of the Minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Bashir Ahmad Bilouur, a staunch opponent of the Taliban.
Already in December it became clear that the Arab Spring is coming in Pakistan.
“The Qadri car on the way from the airport was greeted by a crowd and sprinkled with rose petals. The theologian immediately announced his intention to begin a long road of revolutionary transformations and turn society onto the path of Tahrir Square. Kadri demands that the federal parliament and local legislative bodies be dissolved, the general elections scheduled for March be postponed and the Provisional Government, which, under the supervision of the army, organizes new elections to the People’s Assembly, is sworn in. ”
After the bloody 10 terrorist attack of January in Shiite Quetta, where the country's authorities once again distinguished themselves by inaction, the revolutionary Kadri went to Lahore. From there, on January 14 at the head of the “march of millions” (50.000 people), he arrived in Islamabad - on the street where government offices are located.
“I give the government a deadline until tomorrow to dissolve the federal parliament and provincial assemblies. After that, the masses will take responsibility for themselves, ”the theologian said.
Then he and the demonstrators swore on the Koran that they would remain in Islamabad until the complete victory of the revolution.
Federal Minister of Information and Broadcasting, Kamar Zaman Kariya, responded that Kadri’s demands were unconstitutional. The inclusion of the army and the judiciary in the consultation process on the establishment of the Provisional Government is not provided for in the Constitution.
“The time has passed when a foreigner could rule the country,” said Karia.
A kadri says:
“We have no parliament - there is a gang of robbers, thieves and marauders. Our legislators are lawbreakers. ”
Kadri is a peaceful revolutionary. Therefore, the government buildings and protests were without incident. Participants of the "march of millions" set up tents near police fences. Mobile tents and toilets appeared near the canvas tents. Participants of the “march” sang and danced, rejoicing at the theme that “spring” had finally arrived in their country. From Canada.
At the rally, writes browser "Centuries" Andrei Pravov, it was announced the decision of the Supreme Court to remove from office a corrupt official Raja Pervez Ashraf, followed by another fifteen high-ranking officials. This suggests that the Supreme Court supports the main demand of the protesters.
Ashraf himself, as before, denies the accusations. He is not going to leave the post.
On the fifth day, the authorities agreed with the "moderate Islamist", and the action was curtailed. The authorities have promised that parliamentary elections will be held in accordance with the constitution and in time. In the meantime, a transitional government will be formed in the country that will suit all political forces. "March" ended.
The speed with which the theologian, who came from Canada, managed to organize a large-scale protest rally, shows that the situation in Pakistan has reached a boiling point: boiling water is about to spill over the edge of the pan. That is why, according to Comrade Pravov, the theologian’s calls for the eradication of the “feudal corruption system” and the holding of a “democratic revolution” have fallen on well-fertilized soil. No doubt, the seeds of the economic crisis will also grow. There are interruptions in electricity and gasoline in the country. And this - not to mention the constant bloody "friction" between the Sunni and Shiite communities.
And in addition, there is also the Kashmir problem with India, accompanied by the presence of nuclear weapons both in Pakistan and in the neighboring country.
Who is behind the Canadian theologian?
It may well be that the military: after all, Tahir Kadri himself said about the "supervision of the army." In addition, the “march of millions” was highly appreciated by General Pervez Musharraf. Rumor has it that the military and finance the actions of a fiery anti-corruption fighter.
According to another version, the theologian received money for organizing an expensive “march of millions” in the United States. After all, A. Pravov remarks, from the point of view of Washington, the “green” rebel promotes the return of the military to Islammabad, and those will help the command of the “antiterrorist coalition” to improve relations with the Taliban in Afghanistan. The United States is really interested in establishing order in Pakistan on the eve of the impending withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. And here they will help local people in the form. It is necessary only to arrange so that they took power. Therefore, if the “Arab spring” in Pakistan is not paid by the military, then, therefore, its treasury is in Washington.
Analyst Sergey Strokan (Kommersant) believes that the version that behind the "green" leader of the protesters are figures from the army elite, received weighty confirmation. It is not only a statement about the support of an Islamic theologian who followed the “march” from Pervez Musharraf, but also that the general said that he would speed up his return to his homeland. At the same time, he expressed the hope that the security forces would not go against the people. It is also interesting that the general called on the military command to take more decisive actions, saying that the leadership of Pakistan has lost the right to rule the country.
This is not a rumor: the general, who has been living in London since 2008, was interviewed "BBC"in which he explicitly stated that he was going to return home and “help his party” during the elections in May of this year. And this is despite the fact that Pakistan’s law enforcement agencies are seeking the arrest of Musharraf, who is suspected of involvement in the killing of Benazir Bhutto.
Rather, it is in the hands of the Americans to intensify the Taliban in Pakistan - just at a time when the conflict over Kashmir is intensifying, soldiers are dying and there is terrible talk about a nuclear war, and the Indian police issue instructions for their citizens. Otherwise, the Pakistani government, having previously received good from representatives of the United States and Afghanistan, would not decide to release all the Afghan Taliban now languishing behind bars — led by Mullah Baradar, man of XXXX in the Taliban leadership, whom Washington recently considered one of the most dangerous world terrorists. Were specially carried out talks, after which Foreign Secretary Jalil Jilani came out to the journalists and said that everything, the issue of the liberation of the Taliban was resolved.
Therefore, the version of the money from the United States is inconclusive. Money from the United States is no longer flowing in that generous flow, as it was before the crisis. Or some money was, but not for those purposes. Washington is more willing to create chaos in Pakistan than order. Here America in one fell swoop of two birds with one stone: the Muslims will start cutting each other, which they love very much in the White House, and the Pentagon will have a weighty reason to put pressure on India: fight, they say, come on with terrorism. Massacre will begin in India. All region will flash. All that was missing was the war with Pakistan - due to the same Kashmir. What can we say about the economy of India, a member of the BRICS, staggered ...
Dmitry Sedov ("Fund of Strategic Culture") believes that "the Americans would like to see a terrorist monster emitting a constant threat of Delhi near India." With Indians increasing their economic influence, it would be much easier to talk.
As for the role of the Canadian Tahir Kadri in this, he, we note, made it clear that he would work according to the “Tahrir Square” scenario. There was a time when other short-sighted "experts" found M. Mursi a "moderate Islamist." Today, the Egyptian president occupies a middle position between the pharaoh and the caliph. There is no way to define the border here, but the Muslim Brotherhood and their henchmen, such as the recently formed Qaeda al-Jihad in Egypt gang, have already declared Mursi the governor of the Most High. It is easy to draw a parallel with Kadri: if the military brings him to power, this purely nominal figure (like Mursi) will turn out in Pakistan as a kind of “all-union elder” formally expressing the aspirations of the people - except for the part that advocates liberalism and democracy. There will be no democracy in Pakistan: Tahrir Square is the road to Islamism. Indeed, in Egypt - the Sharia constitution.
If it is true that the terrorists in Pakistan are financed by the Saudis, the “Tahrir Square” scenario seems even more likely. Pakistan may become another country, modeled after Saudi Arabia. True, with nuclear weapons - which is quite perspicacious analysts from the United States are very afraid. The Saudis have oil and money, but no nuclear bombs. And Pakistan and adjacent India have bombs and missiles.
However, the coming to power of the military in Pakistan - even if it takes place, in the framework of the “spring” or through elections, is not the main danger that the Pakistanis are experiencing. In the end, 50 thousands of people at the rally - not all of Pakistan. In addition, the rally ended formally: a citizen of Canada, who was speaking from a bulletproof booth, did not win any such convincing victory.
Arif Rafik, Associate Institute for the Middle East and an employee of a consulting company specializing in international politics and security issues, in an article in "The Diplomat" January 26 writes that, at the moment, the greatest threat to Pakistan’s democracy is not military, but ineffective government of the country by civilian authorities.
Pakistan, he writes, is essentially bankrupt; he is mired in external debt. Lack of energy undermined Pakistani industry. State-owned enterprises spray budget funds. The economy is falling apart on the background of constant political violence. Justice does not work. From here, most of the middle class in Pakistan views the army and the judicial system as their saviors. However, the army is now out of work, and the Supreme Court does not have the capacity (or desire) to work effectively.
The author does not know what the future holds for Pakistan. The next government must prove - and in a short time - that democracy and good governance are not mutually exclusive. It will be a tough battle, the analyst writes. If it is lost, democracy in Pakistan will turn out to be only a passing vision ...
German expert on Asia Günther Knabe surethat democracy here and does not smell. The protest movement of Tahir Kadri was inspired by the military, who recently began to lose influence on political life. Through the lips of an Islamic theologian agitating the masses against the government, the military plans to thwart the regular elections scheduled for spring and disrupt the constitutional process. It will be a coup. The sooner the better for the military. They favor extraordinary elections, the creation of a "transitional government". They benefit from the strengthening of the confrontation between India and Pakistan - because of Kashmir. The country's weak economic position also benefits them. Huge financial resources for the campaign of Tahir Kadri (today he activated television and the distribution of printed campaign materials) in Pakistan have only one power - the army, the German analyst believes. It is worth the situation in Islamabad to get out of control, as the army will immediately take decisive measures "in order to restore order."
But the revolutionary green scenario in Pakistan, Mr. Knabe, finds it unlikely. He predicts that the government will delay negotiations with the Canadian and wait for the recession of the protests. In addition, influential opposition political parties distanced themselves from the Islamist, a very few democrat and liberal.
Thus, Tahir Kadri seems to be nothing more than a convenient mouthpiece for the military preparing to take power - at the right moment for the coup, when the economy is reeling, there is not enough gasoline and electricity, the power is mired in corruption, the Supreme Court cannot or cannot act. Islamist terrorism flourished in the cities in lush colors, and people are jailed in arbitrariness, with the wording "for moral reasons." At the same time, the Kashmir issue escalated - so much so that it came to nuclear threats. There were all the prerequisites for Pervez Musharraf to take power. By the way, he has experience of her bloodless capture.
Observed and translated by Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru
Information