Mali: The West will never win?
Chatter on the Internet about the situation in Mali, articles by various analysts, experts' guesses, various reports and reports, newswhich are innumerable, mostly boil down to one thing: several French legions, African troops and a little air strikes will drive out Islamist fanatics from the world map. Do not count on this, says journalist Mort Rosenblum, who has repeatedly been to Mali.
In his new blog post Rendezvous (The New York Times) gave a rather harsh assessment of the next Western "blitzkrieg" against the Islamists. No, he is not against the military operation, but, apparently, he believes that the West is overestimating his strength and capabilities.
The sandy part of Mali, the journalist writes, is twice as large in territory as France. Desert, rocks, caves through which the Tuareg have traveled for a thousand years. Religious fervor and al Qaeda’s newest campaign are only a small part of the local stories. Mali has long been at war with itself, the nomads of the north fighting with the sedentary tribes of the south.
Those Tuaregs that indigo turbans wear - the guys are very tough, the author notes. Their “news,” that is, victories and losses, is not easy to track down.
Believe those citizens who managed to get to the phone or connect to the network and give a message to Twitter, the author believes. “News”, which are built on a similar basis in the USA and Europe, is hardly reliable. If somewhere the rebels were killed, this does not mean that they were defeated. Here is a desert, there is no roads.
In the north of the country, a mass of jihadists were seeking refuge for themselves long before Gadhafi fell in Libya. Al-Qaeda’s religious fanaticism was thus added to the old secular insult of the Tuareg.
Many of us, Rosenblum continues, in the morning including the computer, think that the world “begins” with the push of a button. In every crisis we see a beginning and an end. Rarely where it is, and, of course, not in the north of Mali.
The reporter should know this very well, says the journalist, before talking about the future, and especially about changes in the forms of societies in West Africa. The author believes that it will take a very long time for Romantic time to return to Timbuktu and Malian music and for this country to once again become one of the best places on Earth ...
The al-Qaeda fighters, we note, knew what they were doing. Firstly, in the 2000s, little by little, moving into the desert, exploring the rocks and turning the caves into comfortable dwellings, they hid in hard-to-reach places and gained strength. Secondly, after the fall of Gaddafi, both they and the Tuareg gained access to the Libyan arms - and not only to Kalashnikovs. Third, after Gaddafi, having become dead, stopped helping financially to the Tuareg, they were strongly offended, and a little later declared their own state Azawad. And Timbuktu made it the capital. And all this mishmash of resentment, religion, ancient history and desert geography, the French fighters, even with the help of African fighters, cannot be overcome. Temporary victories are possible, but is victory absolute? No, it's hard to believe. Then why aren't the Americans overpowering the Taliban? And the same al-Qaeda?
True, here we have ahead of the French, not the Americans.
But here's the newspaper "Parisien"trying to keep track of the hostilities in Mali, writes that among the Malian terrorists there were also French compatriots. According to the author of the article, this is not about the famous Breton Gilles Le Guyen (aka Abdel Jelil), who converted to Islam and went to Mali to fight the infidels in the name of Allah, but about someone else, and maybe a few others. And the newspaper Libération, leading a conversation about Mali in an editorial, writes about the country's close ties with France (the colonial heritage here is viewed as a positive factor); about the first successful (up to a certain point) steps of the local democracy; about the experience of the Malian nation, which managed to unite different cultures and different languages. The author of the editorial is optimistic that after the war, France will open the doors of universities for the younger generation of Mali. It is France that will form the elite of the nation there. After all, the absence of a worthy elite in the country is one of the reasons why the situation there has become complicated because of the “very mediocre military coup.” The author of an editorial in the Liberation newspaper concludes: “Mali will never be a new Afghanistan.” This is a fanfare.
The military plans of France are very ambitious. Not otherwise, Monsieur Hollande, who has to appease sexual minorities (in accordance with election promises, but against the will of the majority of the population), who is not at odds with the rich citizens of his country and the Constitutional Council due to the attempt to illegally introduce 75% income tax , and whom progressive journalists directly oppose de Gaulle, decided to raise his reputation a bit with the Malian blitzkrieg.
French Minister of Defense Jean-Yves Le Drian сообщил Press: The goal of Paris is the "complete liberation" of Mali from Islamist militants. France will not agree to less. The minister gave an interview to French television and stressed that the French army will not leave a single center of resistance in Mali.
What are the moves on the Malian front in France?
On Monday, the joint forces of the French military contingent and the government army conducting the Serval counter-terrorism operation, were busy two important cities in the central part of Mali: Diabaly and Duenza. According to eyewitnesses, the locals welcome the troops. According to observers, the success achieved by the French and Malian units in the central regions opens up opportunities for them to launch an offensive against the northern regions.
Today, already ten states, mostly Western, provide logistics assistance to Paris. Battalions of members of the States of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) arrive in Mali. They will support the army of Mali in the fight against extremists who have seized the northern territories.
22 January it became known that the British will help the French troops in Mali. The UK will send about 500 troops there. About it сообщил at a speech in parliament, UK Prime Minister David Cameron. However, he disown direct warfare:
Later, the official representative of the prime minister confirmed that British soldiers would not participate in military actions against Islamic extremists.
Earlier, London had no plans to send an armed contingent to Mali. It was spoken only about the provision of two military transport aircraft “Boeing C-17 Globemaster” to the French for the delivery of equipment.
Now, probably, we should expect Cameron to declare that 500 people will still be involved in hostilities. Western rulers are like women. They will say one thing and then do the opposite.
The Canadian resource CBC News has information that Canada is going to help in the Malian operation. The government began to establish contacts with the French and American parties about the crisis in this African country last spring. Currently the government suggests help France with one heavy transport plane C-17 (task: transportation of French military equipment). However, Canadian experts believe that the operation in Mali is undesirable due to the fact that in Mali the world will receive a second exhausting Afghanistan.
Evening xnumx january government mali extended state of emergency in the country for a period of 3 month. Commenting on this decision, officials noted that the military operation to liberate the territories occupied by Islamists is progressing well, but the country needs to establish peace. The state of emergency prohibits the holding of public meetings and rallies, and also establishes a curfew in some cities and regions. The CP mode was introduced on January 11.
Egyptian president of the French operation displeased. He, like many experts, believes that a military conflict leads to the emergence of a new “hot spot” in the world. Speaking at the Arab League Summit in Riyadh, Mohammed Mursi saidthat does not approve of the direct military intervention of France in the military conflict in the territory of Mali.
According to him, Egypt does not support the conduct of a military operation against the Islamists by French troops, because it believes that this will lead to the emergence of a “new hot spot”; moreover, the new conflict will cause a “separation” between the countries of North Africa and their southern neighbors.
At the same time, the Egyptian president called on the world community to support the Algerian government, which recently faced an attack by terrorists in the Amenas gas field. The attack of terrorists is explained by their revenge for the intervention of France in the Malian conflict.
As for Algeria and Mali, international experts fear the emergence of a military conflict between these two countries. Head of the Center for Russian-African Relations and African Foreign Policy Yevgeny Korendyasov, the former Russian ambassador to Mali, commenting on the role of Algeria in the development of events in the region, appreciated its like decisive. After all, the current uprising in Mali is the fourth, and in achieving a peaceful outcome of the previous three, Algeria played a crucial role.
The uprising, according to the expert, is a usual way for the Tuareg to assert their rights. Of the 1,5 million of the Mali Tuareg population, there are about 400 thousand. However, the Tuareg live in Algeria, Libya, Niger, Mauritania, Burkina Faso, and about 1,2 million in total. “They rule” protest movement now extremists associated with Al-Qaeda. Korendyas believes that its cells in the region were created as early as the end of the 90-s - just like bastions for attacks on Europe. The decisive role in the current events, according to Comrade Korendyasov, was played by the defeat of Gaddafi in Libya: the Tuaregs, who were in the army of Gaddafi, returned to the Sahara with well armed after the defeat. Now these people are the backbone of military groups in the region.
The operation was not as easy as it first seemed to the French.
Evgeny Korendyasov explainedthat the feeling of discontent has nothing to do with the policy pursued by the Al-Qaida, Salafist and other Islamist organizations that rode the Tuareg movement. Today, mostly Al-Aid cells are fighting a war, entrenched in the territory of the Tuareg in 2000-s. They took over the leadership of those movements that put forward demands to protect the interests of the Tuareg population. Comrade Korendyasov says:
Meanwhile, in Strasbourg, talking about a humanitarian catastrophe.
On January 21, the President of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), Jean-Claude Mignon, spoke at a press conference on the opening of the winter session of this largest political forum in Europe, and said:
According to Monsieur Mignon, due to the escalation of the conflict in the neighboring countries of Mali, as well as in the southern part of Europe, a flood of migrants may pour.
Russia did not stand aside. Moscow is ready to provide France with vehicles for the transfer of troops and cargo to Mali. About this on the radio "Europe 1" сказал January 20 French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius. He noted that transport will be provided by Africans, Europeans and Canadians. In addition, according to him, to provide vehicles "offered and Russian." The minister added that the number of contingent countries participating in ECOWAS in Mali will increase from 3,3 thousand to 5,5 thousand by attracting peacekeepers from Chad. The French contingent will increase to 2,5 thousands.
According to the newspaper Kommersant, Paris found out the position of the Russian Federation even before the start of the operation in Mali. Fabius asked Sergey Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, if Russia would object to the operation. The Russian minister answered: Russia will not object, as he also considers the local militants as “notorious bandits.” True, Comrade Lavrov reminded his colleague that at one time France supported the same forces in Libya.
According to French media reports, a total of involved 1,9 Thousands of French soldiers, of whom about a thousand are in Mali. There are about 40 armored personnel carriers, 12 fighters "Rafale" and "Mirage", five tanker aircraft, two reconnaissance aircraft, one satellite. The French military in the cities of Bamako and Mopti formed two tactical battalion groups. The following countries have agreed to provide technical support for the operation in Mali: the United States, Great Britain, Belgium, Canada, Germany, Denmark, Italy, Russia.
On the subject of Russian aid, the former ambassador to Mali, Yevgeny Korendyasov saysthat Russia is a member of the antiterrorist coalition and accordingly conducts a policy of deterring terrorist forces, "in whatever guise they may have acted." Moreover, according to the expert, destabilization in the region affects Russia's economic interests. If not in Mali, then in neighboring countries, Russian business structures have major interests: Gazprom has Nigeria; for Severstal - in Liberia, Burkina Faso and Guinea; at Rosatom - in Niger; at Lukoil - in Côte d'Ivoire, Gabon and Sierra Leone.
Currently, the French are waiting for additional support from the powers of the West. how says Michael Shurkin of the RAND Corporation, the French are likely interested in additional spy planes, including drones, which could provide real-time surveillance on the battlefield. It is less likely, the expert said, that France will ask the US for ground troops, he said, because it itself has troops capable of dealing with the rebels. In any case, Defense Minister Leon Panetta ruled out sending combat units to Mali.
By the way, the US approach to supporting the French in Mali perfectly illustrates the new strategy of the Obama administration. According to Anthony Cordesman, an expert on national security from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the United States is moving away from leading role in solving regional crises. Of course, Washington will provide some types of assistance (for example, the same air transportation), but special missions will be rejected. This is due to the reduction of the military budget of the country, the reorientation of the APR, the implementation of operations in Afghanistan and Iranian and North Korean "provocations". On the other, America simply has no money. According to Cordesman, the role of the “global policeman” would push the United States into the hearth of any conflict. Earlier, the US military had already trained Malian soldiers to fight Islamic rebels in the northern part of the country. So what? These efforts brought about the opposite of what was expected: it was the trained officers who overthrew the government.
Therefore, the French today are more inclined to "push" on their European allies: the Germans, the Dutch and the Italians.
However, with Germany, France does not add up.
This year, Germany and France began to print stamps, mint coins and set literary awards in honor of the 50 anniversary of the historic agreement that initiated peaceful cooperation between the two countries that became enemies as a result of World War II unleashed by the Germans. But the celebrations of the anniversary date were overshadowed by the crisis in Africa. In fact, the operation in Mali, undertaken by France, was a test of friendship between the two peoples.
If France sent troops to Mali to stop the Islamists, then Germany saidThat will not help her ally. Moreover, the German Ministry of Defense confirmed to Der Spiegel magazine that Berlin will do everything to make sure that French weapons are not loaded onto German airplanes based in the Netherlands.
Germany has quite strict rules that require parliamentary approval for any military missions abroad. Nevertheless, this step is a stern reminder to the French of Germany’s apparent reluctance to be drawn into a conflict in Mali, even if it risks facing the fact of aggravation of relations with its neighbor. Berlin adopted a similar approach two years ago, when the French coalition launched a mission to overthrow Gaddafi.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande on Monday managed to get around the issue of military support in Mali when they drank champagne in a television conference room in Berlin. Merkel said that the German military, they say, is not very experienced in Africa, and therefore Germany will gradually, step by step, consider whether she can do something here or not. Immediately, she hurried to add: "But, of course, we cannot refuse each other, we are partners." Nevertheless, it is clear that the Germans will not support the French with military force.
The Germans are implementing help of a different kind, and not at all to the French. Germany promised to send two military aircraft to help African troops be transported to Bamako. Also, the Germans will provide 1 million. € (1,3 million. $) For the provision of humanitarian assistance to Mali. There, according to the United Nations, almost 380 thousands of “displaced persons” appeared because of the conflict.
The fact is that, unlike France, Germany has no strategic interests in resource-rich Mali. And for Ms. Merkel, whose main agenda is the eurozone crisis and the upcoming national elections, Mali is just an undesirable distraction.
Concerning the resources of Mali, Candidate of Political Sciences Nikolay Malishevsky Recallsthat in this country is full of gold, diamonds, tin, bauxite, phosphates, uranium, lithium, iron ore, manganese, polymetals (copper, lead, zinc, silver) and rare-earth elements (molybdenum). The country also has a serious hydropower potential.
Some Western experts also believe that Mali is a “continuation” of Libya.
Reliable information about the sources of weapons, which is now used by Islamist rebels in Mali, is not easy to obtain. However, in the West, many analysts agree that most of it came from Libya. Peter Booker of Human Rights Watch warns the western community is about big risks and mentions those weapons that “went missing” in Libya. Here and MANPADS, and anti-tank missiles, and missiles for Gradov, and mortars, and heavy machine guns. Something has already been noticed in Mali. In fact, the rebel forces in Mali are armed to the teeth - just like the Libyan army. Bukert says that it is one thing to fight the rebels armed with AK-47, and quite another to fight against an entire army equipped with MANPADS and heavy weapons. According to him, this is "a completely different conflict."
But this “other” conflict does not frighten France. Nor does it scare away the conduct of hostilities and the disloyalty of allied Germany. Hollande needs a victorious war - and he will seek the "complete liberation" of Mali from the Islamist rebels. The goal is good, and Russia supports it, noticing nonetheless that the picture in Libya was somewhat different from the picture of the Malian one. Here one thing is clear: the war in Mali will not be for France, and it is not at all the fact that the French economic interest in gold, diamonds, tin, uranium and other minerals will be satisfied immediately after the victorious blitzkrieg. It is highly unlikely that Germany and the United States would help the French soldiers. There is only hope for additional military resources from Africa. Therefore, pessimistic experts are more likely to be right than optimistic experts. Mali’s bright democratic future, and at the same time Monsieur Hollande’s triumph, are visions as fantastic as the sudden fall of the Taliban in Afghanistan. Therefore, Hollande will go down in history as a tax loser and applicant for gay friendship, and the war in Mali, where the Al-Qaeda have long been strengthened, will, alas, be as long, exhausting and losing as all the wars that the West waged against the radical Islamists.
In his new blog post Rendezvous (The New York Times) gave a rather harsh assessment of the next Western "blitzkrieg" against the Islamists. No, he is not against the military operation, but, apparently, he believes that the West is overestimating his strength and capabilities.
The sandy part of Mali, the journalist writes, is twice as large in territory as France. Desert, rocks, caves through which the Tuareg have traveled for a thousand years. Religious fervor and al Qaeda’s newest campaign are only a small part of the local stories. Mali has long been at war with itself, the nomads of the north fighting with the sedentary tribes of the south.
Those Tuaregs that indigo turbans wear - the guys are very tough, the author notes. Their “news,” that is, victories and losses, is not easy to track down.
Believe those citizens who managed to get to the phone or connect to the network and give a message to Twitter, the author believes. “News”, which are built on a similar basis in the USA and Europe, is hardly reliable. If somewhere the rebels were killed, this does not mean that they were defeated. Here is a desert, there is no roads.
In the north of the country, a mass of jihadists were seeking refuge for themselves long before Gadhafi fell in Libya. Al-Qaeda’s religious fanaticism was thus added to the old secular insult of the Tuareg.
Many of us, Rosenblum continues, in the morning including the computer, think that the world “begins” with the push of a button. In every crisis we see a beginning and an end. Rarely where it is, and, of course, not in the north of Mali.
The reporter should know this very well, says the journalist, before talking about the future, and especially about changes in the forms of societies in West Africa. The author believes that it will take a very long time for Romantic time to return to Timbuktu and Malian music and for this country to once again become one of the best places on Earth ...
The al-Qaeda fighters, we note, knew what they were doing. Firstly, in the 2000s, little by little, moving into the desert, exploring the rocks and turning the caves into comfortable dwellings, they hid in hard-to-reach places and gained strength. Secondly, after the fall of Gaddafi, both they and the Tuareg gained access to the Libyan arms - and not only to Kalashnikovs. Third, after Gaddafi, having become dead, stopped helping financially to the Tuareg, they were strongly offended, and a little later declared their own state Azawad. And Timbuktu made it the capital. And all this mishmash of resentment, religion, ancient history and desert geography, the French fighters, even with the help of African fighters, cannot be overcome. Temporary victories are possible, but is victory absolute? No, it's hard to believe. Then why aren't the Americans overpowering the Taliban? And the same al-Qaeda?
True, here we have ahead of the French, not the Americans.
But here's the newspaper "Parisien"trying to keep track of the hostilities in Mali, writes that among the Malian terrorists there were also French compatriots. According to the author of the article, this is not about the famous Breton Gilles Le Guyen (aka Abdel Jelil), who converted to Islam and went to Mali to fight the infidels in the name of Allah, but about someone else, and maybe a few others. And the newspaper Libération, leading a conversation about Mali in an editorial, writes about the country's close ties with France (the colonial heritage here is viewed as a positive factor); about the first successful (up to a certain point) steps of the local democracy; about the experience of the Malian nation, which managed to unite different cultures and different languages. The author of the editorial is optimistic that after the war, France will open the doors of universities for the younger generation of Mali. It is France that will form the elite of the nation there. After all, the absence of a worthy elite in the country is one of the reasons why the situation there has become complicated because of the “very mediocre military coup.” The author of an editorial in the Liberation newspaper concludes: “Mali will never be a new Afghanistan.” This is a fanfare.
The military plans of France are very ambitious. Not otherwise, Monsieur Hollande, who has to appease sexual minorities (in accordance with election promises, but against the will of the majority of the population), who is not at odds with the rich citizens of his country and the Constitutional Council due to the attempt to illegally introduce 75% income tax , and whom progressive journalists directly oppose de Gaulle, decided to raise his reputation a bit with the Malian blitzkrieg.
French Minister of Defense Jean-Yves Le Drian сообщил Press: The goal of Paris is the "complete liberation" of Mali from Islamist militants. France will not agree to less. The minister gave an interview to French television and stressed that the French army will not leave a single center of resistance in Mali.
What are the moves on the Malian front in France?
On Monday, the joint forces of the French military contingent and the government army conducting the Serval counter-terrorism operation, were busy two important cities in the central part of Mali: Diabaly and Duenza. According to eyewitnesses, the locals welcome the troops. According to observers, the success achieved by the French and Malian units in the central regions opens up opportunities for them to launch an offensive against the northern regions.
Today, already ten states, mostly Western, provide logistics assistance to Paris. Battalions of members of the States of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) arrive in Mali. They will support the army of Mali in the fight against extremists who have seized the northern territories.
22 January it became known that the British will help the French troops in Mali. The UK will send about 500 troops there. About it сообщил at a speech in parliament, UK Prime Minister David Cameron. However, he disown direct warfare:
“The main mission of the mission is to train the troops of West Africa who want to help stabilize the situation in Mali. This is a training, not a combat mission. ”
Later, the official representative of the prime minister confirmed that British soldiers would not participate in military actions against Islamic extremists.
Earlier, London had no plans to send an armed contingent to Mali. It was spoken only about the provision of two military transport aircraft “Boeing C-17 Globemaster” to the French for the delivery of equipment.
Now, probably, we should expect Cameron to declare that 500 people will still be involved in hostilities. Western rulers are like women. They will say one thing and then do the opposite.
The Canadian resource CBC News has information that Canada is going to help in the Malian operation. The government began to establish contacts with the French and American parties about the crisis in this African country last spring. Currently the government suggests help France with one heavy transport plane C-17 (task: transportation of French military equipment). However, Canadian experts believe that the operation in Mali is undesirable due to the fact that in Mali the world will receive a second exhausting Afghanistan.
Evening xnumx january government mali extended state of emergency in the country for a period of 3 month. Commenting on this decision, officials noted that the military operation to liberate the territories occupied by Islamists is progressing well, but the country needs to establish peace. The state of emergency prohibits the holding of public meetings and rallies, and also establishes a curfew in some cities and regions. The CP mode was introduced on January 11.
Egyptian president of the French operation displeased. He, like many experts, believes that a military conflict leads to the emergence of a new “hot spot” in the world. Speaking at the Arab League Summit in Riyadh, Mohammed Mursi saidthat does not approve of the direct military intervention of France in the military conflict in the territory of Mali.
According to him, Egypt does not support the conduct of a military operation against the Islamists by French troops, because it believes that this will lead to the emergence of a “new hot spot”; moreover, the new conflict will cause a “separation” between the countries of North Africa and their southern neighbors.
At the same time, the Egyptian president called on the world community to support the Algerian government, which recently faced an attack by terrorists in the Amenas gas field. The attack of terrorists is explained by their revenge for the intervention of France in the Malian conflict.
As for Algeria and Mali, international experts fear the emergence of a military conflict between these two countries. Head of the Center for Russian-African Relations and African Foreign Policy Yevgeny Korendyasov, the former Russian ambassador to Mali, commenting on the role of Algeria in the development of events in the region, appreciated its like decisive. After all, the current uprising in Mali is the fourth, and in achieving a peaceful outcome of the previous three, Algeria played a crucial role.
The uprising, according to the expert, is a usual way for the Tuareg to assert their rights. Of the 1,5 million of the Mali Tuareg population, there are about 400 thousand. However, the Tuareg live in Algeria, Libya, Niger, Mauritania, Burkina Faso, and about 1,2 million in total. “They rule” protest movement now extremists associated with Al-Qaeda. Korendyas believes that its cells in the region were created as early as the end of the 90-s - just like bastions for attacks on Europe. The decisive role in the current events, according to Comrade Korendyasov, was played by the defeat of Gaddafi in Libya: the Tuaregs, who were in the army of Gaddafi, returned to the Sahara with well armed after the defeat. Now these people are the backbone of military groups in the region.
The operation was not as easy as it first seemed to the French.
Evgeny Korendyasov explainedthat the feeling of discontent has nothing to do with the policy pursued by the Al-Qaida, Salafist and other Islamist organizations that rode the Tuareg movement. Today, mostly Al-Aid cells are fighting a war, entrenched in the territory of the Tuareg in 2000-s. They took over the leadership of those movements that put forward demands to protect the interests of the Tuareg population. Comrade Korendyasov says:
“The West needs to build new relations with the Islamic world. Do not give a speech at the University of Cairo, but practically change your policy.
Mali is the fifth country to be invaded by troops from the European-American community. And many have the impression that their only goal is to destroy Islam, to oppress the Islamic population. Here we need to change the policy.
The current aggravation in Mali was triggered by the short-sighted defeat of the Gaddafi regime. If this regime had not been crushed, nothing would have happened. Al-Qaeda forces in Mali and other countries could not have organized such a movement. One of its consequences was the departure of large Tuareg formations that were part of the Libyan army. Many of them hid in the Sahara.
Well-armed, well-trained, experienced, they now constitute the backbone of the military formations of this movement in Mali. "
Mali is the fifth country to be invaded by troops from the European-American community. And many have the impression that their only goal is to destroy Islam, to oppress the Islamic population. Here we need to change the policy.
The current aggravation in Mali was triggered by the short-sighted defeat of the Gaddafi regime. If this regime had not been crushed, nothing would have happened. Al-Qaeda forces in Mali and other countries could not have organized such a movement. One of its consequences was the departure of large Tuareg formations that were part of the Libyan army. Many of them hid in the Sahara.
Well-armed, well-trained, experienced, they now constitute the backbone of the military formations of this movement in Mali. "
Meanwhile, in Strasbourg, talking about a humanitarian catastrophe.
On January 21, the President of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), Jean-Claude Mignon, spoke at a press conference on the opening of the winter session of this largest political forum in Europe, and said:
“I, as a French deputy, support the intervention of France in Mali in order to restore the territorial integrity of the country and stop the spread of terrorism. The Mali crisis can lead to grave humanitarian consequences. ”
According to Monsieur Mignon, due to the escalation of the conflict in the neighboring countries of Mali, as well as in the southern part of Europe, a flood of migrants may pour.
Russia did not stand aside. Moscow is ready to provide France with vehicles for the transfer of troops and cargo to Mali. About this on the radio "Europe 1" сказал January 20 French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius. He noted that transport will be provided by Africans, Europeans and Canadians. In addition, according to him, to provide vehicles "offered and Russian." The minister added that the number of contingent countries participating in ECOWAS in Mali will increase from 3,3 thousand to 5,5 thousand by attracting peacekeepers from Chad. The French contingent will increase to 2,5 thousands.
According to the newspaper Kommersant, Paris found out the position of the Russian Federation even before the start of the operation in Mali. Fabius asked Sergey Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, if Russia would object to the operation. The Russian minister answered: Russia will not object, as he also considers the local militants as “notorious bandits.” True, Comrade Lavrov reminded his colleague that at one time France supported the same forces in Libya.
According to French media reports, a total of involved 1,9 Thousands of French soldiers, of whom about a thousand are in Mali. There are about 40 armored personnel carriers, 12 fighters "Rafale" and "Mirage", five tanker aircraft, two reconnaissance aircraft, one satellite. The French military in the cities of Bamako and Mopti formed two tactical battalion groups. The following countries have agreed to provide technical support for the operation in Mali: the United States, Great Britain, Belgium, Canada, Germany, Denmark, Italy, Russia.
On the subject of Russian aid, the former ambassador to Mali, Yevgeny Korendyasov saysthat Russia is a member of the antiterrorist coalition and accordingly conducts a policy of deterring terrorist forces, "in whatever guise they may have acted." Moreover, according to the expert, destabilization in the region affects Russia's economic interests. If not in Mali, then in neighboring countries, Russian business structures have major interests: Gazprom has Nigeria; for Severstal - in Liberia, Burkina Faso and Guinea; at Rosatom - in Niger; at Lukoil - in Côte d'Ivoire, Gabon and Sierra Leone.
Currently, the French are waiting for additional support from the powers of the West. how says Michael Shurkin of the RAND Corporation, the French are likely interested in additional spy planes, including drones, which could provide real-time surveillance on the battlefield. It is less likely, the expert said, that France will ask the US for ground troops, he said, because it itself has troops capable of dealing with the rebels. In any case, Defense Minister Leon Panetta ruled out sending combat units to Mali.
By the way, the US approach to supporting the French in Mali perfectly illustrates the new strategy of the Obama administration. According to Anthony Cordesman, an expert on national security from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the United States is moving away from leading role in solving regional crises. Of course, Washington will provide some types of assistance (for example, the same air transportation), but special missions will be rejected. This is due to the reduction of the military budget of the country, the reorientation of the APR, the implementation of operations in Afghanistan and Iranian and North Korean "provocations". On the other, America simply has no money. According to Cordesman, the role of the “global policeman” would push the United States into the hearth of any conflict. Earlier, the US military had already trained Malian soldiers to fight Islamic rebels in the northern part of the country. So what? These efforts brought about the opposite of what was expected: it was the trained officers who overthrew the government.
Therefore, the French today are more inclined to "push" on their European allies: the Germans, the Dutch and the Italians.
However, with Germany, France does not add up.
This year, Germany and France began to print stamps, mint coins and set literary awards in honor of the 50 anniversary of the historic agreement that initiated peaceful cooperation between the two countries that became enemies as a result of World War II unleashed by the Germans. But the celebrations of the anniversary date were overshadowed by the crisis in Africa. In fact, the operation in Mali, undertaken by France, was a test of friendship between the two peoples.
If France sent troops to Mali to stop the Islamists, then Germany saidThat will not help her ally. Moreover, the German Ministry of Defense confirmed to Der Spiegel magazine that Berlin will do everything to make sure that French weapons are not loaded onto German airplanes based in the Netherlands.
Germany has quite strict rules that require parliamentary approval for any military missions abroad. Nevertheless, this step is a stern reminder to the French of Germany’s apparent reluctance to be drawn into a conflict in Mali, even if it risks facing the fact of aggravation of relations with its neighbor. Berlin adopted a similar approach two years ago, when the French coalition launched a mission to overthrow Gaddafi.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande on Monday managed to get around the issue of military support in Mali when they drank champagne in a television conference room in Berlin. Merkel said that the German military, they say, is not very experienced in Africa, and therefore Germany will gradually, step by step, consider whether she can do something here or not. Immediately, she hurried to add: "But, of course, we cannot refuse each other, we are partners." Nevertheless, it is clear that the Germans will not support the French with military force.
The Germans are implementing help of a different kind, and not at all to the French. Germany promised to send two military aircraft to help African troops be transported to Bamako. Also, the Germans will provide 1 million. € (1,3 million. $) For the provision of humanitarian assistance to Mali. There, according to the United Nations, almost 380 thousands of “displaced persons” appeared because of the conflict.
The fact is that, unlike France, Germany has no strategic interests in resource-rich Mali. And for Ms. Merkel, whose main agenda is the eurozone crisis and the upcoming national elections, Mali is just an undesirable distraction.
Concerning the resources of Mali, Candidate of Political Sciences Nikolay Malishevsky Recallsthat in this country is full of gold, diamonds, tin, bauxite, phosphates, uranium, lithium, iron ore, manganese, polymetals (copper, lead, zinc, silver) and rare-earth elements (molybdenum). The country also has a serious hydropower potential.
“The French, acting on the American“ anti-terrorist ”tracing paper,” writes the political analyst, “are now conducting a ground operation against the Islamists, who themselves were armed with Libyan weapons seized after the overthrow of Gaddafi. NATO has already welcomed the military operation of the French troops, which immediately joined (albeit indirectly) the United Kingdom and Germany. The United States also officially announced support for the French military operation, which has become a logical continuation of the Libyan. In essence, this is a joint operation of the West against the economic expansion of China in Africa, which has established barter with gold and cotton from Mali and financed infrastructure projects in more than 35 countries in Africa ... ”
Some Western experts also believe that Mali is a “continuation” of Libya.
Reliable information about the sources of weapons, which is now used by Islamist rebels in Mali, is not easy to obtain. However, in the West, many analysts agree that most of it came from Libya. Peter Booker of Human Rights Watch warns the western community is about big risks and mentions those weapons that “went missing” in Libya. Here and MANPADS, and anti-tank missiles, and missiles for Gradov, and mortars, and heavy machine guns. Something has already been noticed in Mali. In fact, the rebel forces in Mali are armed to the teeth - just like the Libyan army. Bukert says that it is one thing to fight the rebels armed with AK-47, and quite another to fight against an entire army equipped with MANPADS and heavy weapons. According to him, this is "a completely different conflict."
But this “other” conflict does not frighten France. Nor does it scare away the conduct of hostilities and the disloyalty of allied Germany. Hollande needs a victorious war - and he will seek the "complete liberation" of Mali from the Islamist rebels. The goal is good, and Russia supports it, noticing nonetheless that the picture in Libya was somewhat different from the picture of the Malian one. Here one thing is clear: the war in Mali will not be for France, and it is not at all the fact that the French economic interest in gold, diamonds, tin, uranium and other minerals will be satisfied immediately after the victorious blitzkrieg. It is highly unlikely that Germany and the United States would help the French soldiers. There is only hope for additional military resources from Africa. Therefore, pessimistic experts are more likely to be right than optimistic experts. Mali’s bright democratic future, and at the same time Monsieur Hollande’s triumph, are visions as fantastic as the sudden fall of the Taliban in Afghanistan. Therefore, Hollande will go down in history as a tax loser and applicant for gay friendship, and the war in Mali, where the Al-Qaeda have long been strengthened, will, alas, be as long, exhausting and losing as all the wars that the West waged against the radical Islamists.
Observed and translated by Oleg Chuvakin
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