Imaginary and real dangers of Iranian missiles
A few days ago, regular exercises of Iran’s naval forces took place in the Strait of Hormuz. As after all previous similar events, the command of the Iranian Navy responded well to the results of the exercises. Naval sailors showed what they can do and how they can defend their country from external attacks. Among other things, the official Iranian statements about regular exercises include words about the testing of more and more new missile systems of various classes. Currently it is weapon Western countries are considered one of the most dangerous even in the near term.
One of the last concerns was the recently created Iran anti-ship missile Quader ("Qadir"). A guided cruise missile is capable of hitting targets at ranges up to 200 kilometers and, at the same time, it is claimed that its control system provides much greater accuracy in comparison with the previous Iranian anti-ship missiles. Also, the Iranian military talk about the possibility of installing the Kadir missile launch complex on almost any warship of the Iranian Navy. If the declared characteristics of Quader RCC correspond to reality, then a new trump card has appeared in Iran’s hands, which is capable of protecting the country to some extent from attack and preventing a possible war.
The Qadir anti-ship missile is one of the consequences of increased attention paid by Iran’s leadership to the creation of new missile systems. According to Iranian military leaders, in fact, missiles are the only weapon class that can either prevent the start of a new war, or help the Iranian army fight back a little easier from the attack. Iranian engineers have already achieved some success in the missile direction and, according to some Western intelligence services, by the 2015 year they can begin testing their first intercontinental missile. Thus, the two highest priorities of the Iranian defense industry - the rocket and nuclear - together can ensure the security of the country.
It is worth noting, the Iranian designers have so far managed to establish the production of only medium-range missiles. The newest ballistic missiles of this class of the Sajil family have a range of 2500 kilometers. Thus, to achieve the cherished mark in 5500 kilometers, Iranian rocket planners will have to make a lot of effort. In the meantime, Iranian missiles pose no danger to Europe or both of the Americas.
The development and construction of intercontinental missiles requires a host of special technologies, as well as a number of studies. Thus, to the cost of the actual design of the rocket should add all the additional expenses for preliminary studies, etc. Iran, it seems, is not yet able to carry out the full range of activities related to the creation of intercontinental missiles. There is information about the work of the late nineties and the beginning of the two thousandth, during which it was planned to make a rocket of the Shehab family with a range of about 3500-4000 kilometers. Judging by the absence of such missiles in the Iranian armed forces at the present time, that project did not bear fruit. Perhaps, some work is still ongoing, but they have no visible result.
In some sources there are references to the slowdown in the development and construction of other missiles. In addition, it is worth noting the limited capabilities of Iran in the field of scientific and design personnel. Tehran does not have the opportunity to invite foreign experts from leading countries or to exchange knowledge with them. In fact, the only partner of Iran in the missile area is North Korea, which regularly cooperates with Iran’s rocket makers. Well, given the rocket progress in the DPRK, certain conclusions can be drawn about the fruits of cooperation with Iran. It is unlikely that even joint efforts of Iran and North Korea will soon be able to create a full-fledged intercontinental rocket designed specifically for Iran. It is noteworthy that the last Korean missiles of the Tephodon family already possess an intercontinental range, but the possibility of mastering their production in Iran raises great doubts.
At present, the Euro-Atlantic missile defense system is in full swing, although not without scandals. Its official mission is to defend Europe and America from the so-called intercontinental missiles. unreliable modes. At the same time, the absence of a large number of such munitions from developing countries, such as Iran or the DPRK, gives a very serious reason to doubt the prospects and even the very need to create anti-missile systems. Moreover, similar doubts are expressed by American officials. For example, according to T. Collins, a leading officer of the American Association for Arms Control, the construction of a missile defense position area on the east coast of the United States by 2015 does not make sense. In addition, Collina sees no point in the speedy completion of the construction of the European missile defense system, which is also the subject of disputes with Russia.
As a result, it turns out that, until a certain time, the greatest danger to foreign armies was not so much Iran’s ballistic missiles as cruise missiles: anti-ship and designed to destroy ground targets. In the light of recent geopolitical events around Iran, such a type of armament may eventually become the main means of defense. The fact is that in the event of the outbreak of a full-scale war against the Islamic Republic, the first blows will be delivered using weapons fleet country of intervention. If it is the United States, then the deck will also participate in the strikes. aviation. It is quite obvious that retaliatory strikes against ship groupings will be the best defense against such an attack, and the use of anti-ship missiles will be the most effective technique. This class of weapons, especially when using the Kadir missiles, can greatly complicate the military operation against Iran.
If Iranian shipbuilders manage to reequip at least some of the naval forces with new missile systems, and rocket planners provide the sailors with the necessary amount of ammunition, the Iranian Navy will be able to at least make it harder to attack using ships. The range of the missiles of two hundred kilometers will allow with less risk to carry out attacks of enemy ships, including at a great distance from the base. Thus, countries that consider Iran to be their adversary should take care to create ship and ground anti-aircraft complexes capable of intercepting Iranian anti-ship missiles.
It is obvious that the development of ship-borne missiles in Iran is much faster than ballistic ammunition. For this reason, in the event of a military conflict, it is ship missiles that are designed to attack various objects represent a much greater danger. As for ballistic missiles, their use in a hypothetical war is unlikely to have a wide scope. Medium-range missiles are suitable only for attacking enemy targets (for example, the nearest US bases) or for destroying large concentrations of enemy troops after they cross the border or parachute to the coast. It is sometimes mentioned that Iran can strike at facilities of US allies, for example, at Israel. It is difficult to determine the likelihood of such attacks, but a certain risk remains and may even increase if Israel decides to take part in a military operation against Iran.
Thus, the hypothetical adversary of Iran - currently the United States and the NATO countries are considered the most likely candidate for this “title” - should pay the most attention to the arming of ships intended both for attack and defense. Defense from ballistic missiles in this case becomes a priority for the allies of the enemy, located at an insufficient distance from Iran. Europe and both Americas do not fall under this definition, so all the unrest and disputes around the Euro-Atlantic missile defense system in the case of Iranian missiles look rather strange.
On the materials of the sites:
http://lenta.ru/
http://pravda.ru/
http://ria.ru/
http://fas.org/
http://globalsecurity.org/
One of the last concerns was the recently created Iran anti-ship missile Quader ("Qadir"). A guided cruise missile is capable of hitting targets at ranges up to 200 kilometers and, at the same time, it is claimed that its control system provides much greater accuracy in comparison with the previous Iranian anti-ship missiles. Also, the Iranian military talk about the possibility of installing the Kadir missile launch complex on almost any warship of the Iranian Navy. If the declared characteristics of Quader RCC correspond to reality, then a new trump card has appeared in Iran’s hands, which is capable of protecting the country to some extent from attack and preventing a possible war.
The Qadir anti-ship missile is one of the consequences of increased attention paid by Iran’s leadership to the creation of new missile systems. According to Iranian military leaders, in fact, missiles are the only weapon class that can either prevent the start of a new war, or help the Iranian army fight back a little easier from the attack. Iranian engineers have already achieved some success in the missile direction and, according to some Western intelligence services, by the 2015 year they can begin testing their first intercontinental missile. Thus, the two highest priorities of the Iranian defense industry - the rocket and nuclear - together can ensure the security of the country.
It is worth noting, the Iranian designers have so far managed to establish the production of only medium-range missiles. The newest ballistic missiles of this class of the Sajil family have a range of 2500 kilometers. Thus, to achieve the cherished mark in 5500 kilometers, Iranian rocket planners will have to make a lot of effort. In the meantime, Iranian missiles pose no danger to Europe or both of the Americas.
The development and construction of intercontinental missiles requires a host of special technologies, as well as a number of studies. Thus, to the cost of the actual design of the rocket should add all the additional expenses for preliminary studies, etc. Iran, it seems, is not yet able to carry out the full range of activities related to the creation of intercontinental missiles. There is information about the work of the late nineties and the beginning of the two thousandth, during which it was planned to make a rocket of the Shehab family with a range of about 3500-4000 kilometers. Judging by the absence of such missiles in the Iranian armed forces at the present time, that project did not bear fruit. Perhaps, some work is still ongoing, but they have no visible result.
In some sources there are references to the slowdown in the development and construction of other missiles. In addition, it is worth noting the limited capabilities of Iran in the field of scientific and design personnel. Tehran does not have the opportunity to invite foreign experts from leading countries or to exchange knowledge with them. In fact, the only partner of Iran in the missile area is North Korea, which regularly cooperates with Iran’s rocket makers. Well, given the rocket progress in the DPRK, certain conclusions can be drawn about the fruits of cooperation with Iran. It is unlikely that even joint efforts of Iran and North Korea will soon be able to create a full-fledged intercontinental rocket designed specifically for Iran. It is noteworthy that the last Korean missiles of the Tephodon family already possess an intercontinental range, but the possibility of mastering their production in Iran raises great doubts.
At present, the Euro-Atlantic missile defense system is in full swing, although not without scandals. Its official mission is to defend Europe and America from the so-called intercontinental missiles. unreliable modes. At the same time, the absence of a large number of such munitions from developing countries, such as Iran or the DPRK, gives a very serious reason to doubt the prospects and even the very need to create anti-missile systems. Moreover, similar doubts are expressed by American officials. For example, according to T. Collins, a leading officer of the American Association for Arms Control, the construction of a missile defense position area on the east coast of the United States by 2015 does not make sense. In addition, Collina sees no point in the speedy completion of the construction of the European missile defense system, which is also the subject of disputes with Russia.
As a result, it turns out that, until a certain time, the greatest danger to foreign armies was not so much Iran’s ballistic missiles as cruise missiles: anti-ship and designed to destroy ground targets. In the light of recent geopolitical events around Iran, such a type of armament may eventually become the main means of defense. The fact is that in the event of the outbreak of a full-scale war against the Islamic Republic, the first blows will be delivered using weapons fleet country of intervention. If it is the United States, then the deck will also participate in the strikes. aviation. It is quite obvious that retaliatory strikes against ship groupings will be the best defense against such an attack, and the use of anti-ship missiles will be the most effective technique. This class of weapons, especially when using the Kadir missiles, can greatly complicate the military operation against Iran.
If Iranian shipbuilders manage to reequip at least some of the naval forces with new missile systems, and rocket planners provide the sailors with the necessary amount of ammunition, the Iranian Navy will be able to at least make it harder to attack using ships. The range of the missiles of two hundred kilometers will allow with less risk to carry out attacks of enemy ships, including at a great distance from the base. Thus, countries that consider Iran to be their adversary should take care to create ship and ground anti-aircraft complexes capable of intercepting Iranian anti-ship missiles.
It is obvious that the development of ship-borne missiles in Iran is much faster than ballistic ammunition. For this reason, in the event of a military conflict, it is ship missiles that are designed to attack various objects represent a much greater danger. As for ballistic missiles, their use in a hypothetical war is unlikely to have a wide scope. Medium-range missiles are suitable only for attacking enemy targets (for example, the nearest US bases) or for destroying large concentrations of enemy troops after they cross the border or parachute to the coast. It is sometimes mentioned that Iran can strike at facilities of US allies, for example, at Israel. It is difficult to determine the likelihood of such attacks, but a certain risk remains and may even increase if Israel decides to take part in a military operation against Iran.
Thus, the hypothetical adversary of Iran - currently the United States and the NATO countries are considered the most likely candidate for this “title” - should pay the most attention to the arming of ships intended both for attack and defense. Defense from ballistic missiles in this case becomes a priority for the allies of the enemy, located at an insufficient distance from Iran. Europe and both Americas do not fall under this definition, so all the unrest and disputes around the Euro-Atlantic missile defense system in the case of Iranian missiles look rather strange.
On the materials of the sites:
http://lenta.ru/
http://pravda.ru/
http://ria.ru/
http://fas.org/
http://globalsecurity.org/
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