Who is going to fight with Azerbaijan?
Azerbaijan continues to build up its military power, and this is already beginning to affect the foreign policy of this Transcaucasian state. According to the Global Militarization Index - 2012 (GMI), Azerbaijan is one of the most militarized countries on the planet. This rating is compiled by the Bonn International Conversion Institute (BICC) from 1990 based on data obtained from 149 states. Azerbaijan is in the list of 8 place, with military spending in 5,7% of gross national product (for comparison, the US spends 4,7%, and Russia - 3,02%).
This rating shows well that the future “battlefield” on the planet is the Middle East. Of the top ten, most states belong to this region: Israel (first place), Syria (3), Jordan (5), Kuwait (7), Bahrain (9) and Saudi Arabia (10). And Azerbaijan is directly related to this region.
The former Soviet republic uses its vast oil wealth, which has made it one of the fastest growing economies in the world, to buy weapons and the development of a national military-industrial complex. The dynamics of spending on military purposes is very impressive: from 2004 to 2012, the country's military budget grew from 170 million to 3,2 billion dollars. Arms suppliers include Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Turkey, Israel, and other countries. In particular, Russia delivered - Tanks T-T-72M1 (2006-2009 - 62 tanks), T-90S (contract 2011); SAU 2S7 "Peony" - 12 systems in 2008-2009; ATGM “Cornet” - 100 units in 2009-2010; in 2010, a contract was signed for the organization of licensed production of modernized AK-74M Kalashnikov assault rifles; Mi-35M attack multi-purpose helicopters - 24 units, in 2011-2012 16 helicopters were delivered; in 2011, 40 transport and combat Mi-17-1Vs were ordered; in 2010, a contract was signed for the supply of 2 divisions of the S-300 PMU-2 Favorit anti-aircraft missile system, and so on. Ukraine supplied the upgraded MiG-29, 13 MiG-29 and 2 MiG-29UB fighters (2007) ; modernized the Mi-24 helicopters; T-72 tanks - 48 units in 2006; Self-propelled guns 2C1 “Carnation”, 2C3 “Acacia” and others.
In 2011 alone, Azerbaijan purchased weapons from Israel for $1,6 billion. Among the purchases are Gabriel-type anti-ship cruise missiles (the number was not disclosed), Heron (five complexes) and Searcher (five complexes) unmanned aerial vehicles, one Barak-type air defense system and 75 missiles for it, as well as the EL / M-2080 Green Pine radar. Even earlier, Azerbaijan acquired intelligence equipment from Israel Drones Orbiter and Aerostar, PC30 Lynx, 5,56 mm TAR-21 "TAVOR" assault rifles and other weapons. In Azerbaijan, in 2011, they began to produce Israeli-designed UAVs. The naval forces of Azerbaijan were strengthened with the help of Turkey and the United States. There is evidence that in the coming years, the Azerbaijani Navy will be reinforced with submarines that are adapted to the conditions of the Caspian Sea.
Who is going to fight with Azerbaijan?
It is clear that the first goal is Nagorno-Karabakh. The stronger the armed forces of Azerbaijan become, the more aggressive the tone of Azerbaijani politicians and the public. This is a very dangerous moment, it is tempting to solve a foreign policy problem with the help of the army. The situation is worsened by the fact that the region as a whole has been greatly destabilized and the situation tends to worsen. Baku may risk to "fish in muddy water." It is necessary to take into account the fact that Azerbaijan has two strong allies in the region. Turkey can support Azerbaijan, and not only politically and morally, against Armenia and, potentially, Russia and Iran. Israel supports the development of the armed forces and the military-industrial complex of Azerbaijan in order to create a threat to Iran. In addition, Baku has a “roof” of global significance - the United States and NATO, with which Azerbaijan actively cooperates.
The temptation to solve the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh and take revenge for the defeat in the military conflict 1991-1994, the stronger, the worse the situation in the region. The fact that at present Azerbaijan seriously surpassed Armenia in the field of military construction is taken into account. Baku’s rhetoric has recently begun to raise fears of the start of a new war in the Caucasus. Thus, in February 2012, the ambassador of the Republic of Azerbaijan to Iran, Javanshir Akhundov, made a statement regarding the purchase of Baku’s weapons worth 1,6 billion from a sworn enemy of the Islamic Republic - Israel. He said that the weapons had been bought “in order to liberate the occupied lands of Azerbaijan”.
On December 24, 2012, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at the opening ceremony of the building built for the disabled of the Karabakh war in Sumgait, said: “The main issue facing the country is the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Unfortunately, this issue has not yet been resolved. ” According to him, the Armenians carried out genocide against Azerbaijanis (Khojaly genocide). There are decisions and resolutions of international organizations, including four UN Security Council resolutions that require the withdrawal of Armenian occupation forces from Azerbaijan. However, Yerevan ignores the norms of international law and continues the occupation of Azerbaijani land. According to Aliyev, historical the justice lies in the fact that "Nagorno-Karabakh is our historical, original land", and the present Republic of Armenia has arisen on the historical lands of Azerbaijan. The President of Azerbaijan calls the decision to transfer Erivani to Armenia as the capital in 1918 a great mistake and crime, since the Irevan Khanate is an Azerbaijani historical land. The head of Azerbaijan did not stop there and stated that the invented Armenian state was created on the historical lands of Azerbaijan, and they are currently trying to create a second invented Armenian state (Nagorno-Karabakh). “The time will come when Azerbaijan will restore its territorial integrity by any means. Both historical justice and international law recognize this right for us, ”the head of the Azerbaijani state said. In fact, these are the words of war, which is not far off.
However, Azerbaijan is preparing for war not only with Armenia. In the long term (and even the medium term) a conflict with Iran and Russia is possible. There are already quite a few signs of informational preparation for expansion to the south, as well as attacks on Russia. Do not think that such a war is impossible in principle. How many people could predict the 2008 Russian-Georgian armed conflict of the year? Russia can be drawn into the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict automatically, without any desire to fight. Obviously, in the event of an attack by the Azerbaijani army on Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia will not stand aside. Russia, on the other hand, has a 102 military base in Armenia, which will exist before 2044, and possibly more. In Yerevan, they understand that having a Russian base in the country is the guarantor of national security. In the 2010 year, during a state visit, President Dmitry Medvedev, whose goal was to extend the stay of the Russian military base in the republic, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that in the event of any external threat, this would be considered as an external threat to Russia. As a result, the logic of the war may simply force Russia to intervene, since the safety of its citizens and political interests in Armenia may be affected. In turn, the clash between Russia and Azerbaijan could lead to a conflict with Turkey. And the situation on the border of Azerbaijan and the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic is very tense - gunfights, armed incidents brought down by UAVs are commonplace.
The naked eye can be seen and the possibility of aggression against Iran, which can be attacked by the United States or (and) Israel. It is not for nothing that Israel is one of Azerbaijan’s main partners in modernizing the armed forces and increasing the capabilities of the military-industrial complex. Israel is a partner and supplier who helps deploy its own military production and shares technology. It is necessary to note the fact that Baku is increasing not only the striking power of the ground forces, but also the capabilities of the Navy, that is, the maritime theater of military operations is not considered secondary. At sea, the potential adversaries of Azerbaijan are Iran and Russia.
In this context, it is clear why there was a wave of unverified reports about the provision of Azerbaijan by the Israeli Air Force airfields on its territory for an attack on Iran. Not surprisingly, relations between Tehran and Baku were on the verge of freezing when Azerbaijan announced the arrest of 40 "terrorists" from the Islamic Movement of Azerbaijan, who were accused of organizing terrorist attacks against Israeli diplomats and public figures in Azerbaijan. According to Baku, the “terrorists” were supported by the Islamic Republic. Tehran denied these accusations. Soon the British Times of London published an article where an employee of the Mossad reported that Israeli intelligence services were working in Azerbaijan. According to him, the Israeli special services together with the Azerbaijani ones are behind almost all the diversions that have occurred recently in the Islamic Republic. Including the elimination of nuclear physicist Ahmadi Roshan. Iran, in response, accused Azerbaijan of collaborating with the Israeli secret services and indirectly participating in “Zionist” sabotage attacks against the Islamic Republic.
Indicative is the liquidation of the remnants of the Russian military presence in Azerbaijan - the Russian missile defense system in Gabala. Azerbaijan has finally made its geopolitical choice in favor of potential opponents of Russia - the United States, NATO and Turkey. The presence of the Russian military in Azerbaijan is undesirable for the West.
In this context, it is impossible not to draw attention to the proposal of the deputies of the Azerbaijani parliament to rename their republic to North Azerbaijan. Without the approval of President Ilham Aliyev, MPs could not put forward such a proposal. In turn, Aliyev, without the support of the West, would also not dare to tease a much more powerful Iran. Thus, it was hinted that in the case of the partition of Iran, Baku claims its territory inhabited by ethnic Azerbaijanis and adjacent to the southern borders of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijanis are the second largest ethnic group in Iran, according to various estimates, they are from 16% to 45% of the total population, mostly they live in the so-called Southern Azerbaijan (Western Azerbaijan, Eastern Azerbaijan, Zenjan, Ardebil). The population of Iran is about 80 million. The population of Azerbaijan is 9 million. If the plan of dividing Iran is realized, and there is such a possibility, the “Great Azerbaijan” may temporarily appear on the world map, because Iranian Azerbaijan is also territorial, and in terms of population it is noticeably larger than the eponymous state with its capital in Baku. It is clear that if the West gives a "chance", the Azerbaijani leadership will almost certainly try to join the ethnically related territories of the IRI.
Participation in the division of Iran for Baku is even more preferable than the war for Nagorno-Karabakh. Iran is currently helping to overcome the energy and partly transport isolation of Armenia. After the death of Iran in its modern form, the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh will be easier to solve. For this, the information field is being prepared for a conflict with Russia. Thus, the former adviser to Heydar Aliyev, Vafa Guluzade, said that the number one enemy of Azerbaijan is Russia. According to him, “the collapse of Russia will help Azerbaijan restore its territorial integrity” without a war with Armenia, since the resistance of Yerevan in this case would be meaningless. Taking into account the NATO forces introduced before the attack on Iran in Georgia and Azerbaijan, Baku will be able to participate in the project of uniting the Southern and Northern Caucasus, separated from the Russian Federation, repeatedly voiced by Mikhail Saakashvili. Thus, Russia will be expelled from the North Caucasus and the shores of the Black and Caspian Seas.
It remains only to wait for the power in Moscow to be seized by fans of the course of Gorbachev and Yeltsin. Azerbaijani political analyst Aydin Melik-Mirzoev, in December 2012, in an interview with the agency "Vesti.az", also expressed the innermost thoughts of the leadership of Azerbaijan. In his opinion, Azerbaijan should be willing to weaken, and ideally, fragmentation and disintegration of Russia. The expert believes that the losses from such an event will be, but there will be more benefit. In particular, the weakening of Russia will affect the Azerbaijani migrants who earn money today in Russia, but it will also affect the Armenians. Armenia’s losses will be greater, since it does not have “black gold”. He also noted that it would be beneficial for Azerbaijan so that the "mess" in the North Caucasus would move somewhere far away, to the Middle Volga region or to Siberia. At the same time, he called on Baku to work secretly and cautiously over the weakening and collapse of Iran, which will also negatively affect Armenia. After the weakening and collapse of Russia and Iran, Azerbaijan can go to war with Armenia.
What can Russia answer?
First you need to be strong. A strong Russia has always been a stronghold of stability and peace on the planet. The mere existence of Russia restrains the aggression of many countries, makes them solve many problems by political-diplomatic, economic, and not by war. The growth of Russia's political, economic and military power will force Azerbaijan and other countries to be more restrained, more cautious, to pursue a balanced foreign policy. And to solve this problem, it is not enough to restore industrial power and modernize the armed forces, it is necessary to fight the assorted “fifth column”. From government liberals who destroy education, culture and medicine, to ethnic separatists and radical Islamists who are preparing to repeat the “Syrian scenario” in Russia. Citizens of Russia need to become smarter and not be waged on the provocations of all sorts of leaders who dream of a new "restructuring" and final liberation from the remnants of the "totalitarian and imperial past."
Build up your military capabilities on the southern borders. This, in fact, is being done. In particular, the Caspian is noticeably strengthened. flotilla, and the growth of its combat power continues. In December 2011, a small artillery ship of project 21630 Volgodonsk entered the flotilla. In 2012, the guard ship of project 11661, type “Cheetah”, “Dagestan” (it is equipped with long-range cruise missiles Caliber-NK), and the small artillery ship “Makhachkala” were included in the Caspian flotilla. In 2013, the flotilla is to receive 5 warships: Project 21631 small missile ships (code "Buyan-M") "Grad Sviyazhsk" and "Uglich", three landing hovercraft of the "Serna" project. A number of ships are also being built for the Caspian flotilla, including Project 21631 Small Veliky Ustyug and Zeleny Dol small missile ships. In 2009, the over-the-horizon radar station of the Voronezh-DM early warning system in Armavir began operation, it closes the south-west direction. It is planned to enter the second segment, which will cover the area of the Gabala radar station. This can not but rejoice. Russia should have a surgical instrument for “forcing peace” and eliminating the “hotbed of war” in the South Caucasus and generally in the South.
Unfortunately, at present, Russia does not have a truly effective leverage on Baku’s policy. True, with the aggression of Azerbaijan, Russia can go on the deportation of the entire Azerbaijani community to its historic homeland. It is necessary to take into account that the Azerbaijani community in Russia is very significant, well cohesive, has a powerful administrative and corruption resource, which can not but cause concern. Obviously, it can be used in a subversive struggle against Russia. Russia can also stop supplying Azerbaijan with first-class weapons, since the militarization of this country has led to the emergence of a new “hotbed of war” in the Caucasus.
An important role can be played by the support of Iran, following the example of the Syrian conflict. The existence of a strong, independent Iran is a deterrent to the Arab monarchies, Turkey and Azerbaijan. The time factor is very important for Russia. Iran can act as a leading figure on a chessboard in the fight against Western players and their Arab clientele. Russia can support Iran in the development of nuclear energy, the development of space programs, implement projects in the field of railway construction, civil aviation. It is necessary to help Iran in the field of defensive weapons - means of intelligence, electronic warfare, air defense. The existence of Iran will be a deterrent for politicians who dream of a “Great Azerbaijan” and “Ottoman Empire - 2”.
It is logical to assume that after the fall of the government of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Iran will be the next victim of aggression. Although it is likely that if Assad lasts for some time, the attention of the aggressors will be switched to Iran. Tehran behaves insolently - he encroached on the "sacred cow" of the West. January 15 2013 appeared newsthat the Minister of Economy and Finance of Iran, Shamseddin Hosseini, announced his intention to abandon the use of the US dollar and the euro in foreign economic activity. Tehran gave the order to withdraw the US dollar from foreign trade operations. The Islamic Republic is radically changing the model of mutual settlements with other countries. The leaders of private companies have already received a prescription, according to which they were offered in the near future to transfer all settlements to the Iranian national currency - rial. According to Hosseini, the imposition of sanctions by the United States and the European Union forced the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran to transfer all the currency reserves of the state to gold, which turned out to be a very profitable measure. Iran began to use gold to support export-import operations with neighboring countries. In particular, for the first eleven months of 2012 of the year, the Turkish state sold gold to the Islamic Republic for 6,5 billion dollars. According to the Turkish Minister of Economy Zafer агaнаlayana, gold exports from Turkey to Iran have increased by 2012% over the past 800 year. Ankara is forced to export gold to the Islamic Republics in exchange for energy. Turkey buys more than 90% of export gas from Iran, about 10 billion cubic meters per year.
Such an example is contagious, and the West will be forced to respond, or the process of liberation from financial dependence can be very quick.
One thing is clear for sure: after the attack on Iran, the Caucasus and Central Asia will immediately become a zone of conflict without any intermediate stages. There is nothing new in this information; Russia needs to be prepared for such a development of events.
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