A radical change in the structure of executive power, the new parliament, in which for the first time since Ukraine’s independence, the ultra-right political force is represented - “Freedom”, a social and economic crisis growing like a snowball, actual foreign policy isolation for Ukrainian leaders, permanent “games” with Russia about the Customs Union and gas contracts - these are the main milestones of 2012 for Ukraine.
Parliamentary elections and reformatting of the legislature
The main event of the year was the next parliamentary elections held in Ukraine on October 28. It was the elections that set the domestic political agenda all year round and it was through the prism of the struggle for votes that the most resonant events in the country should be evaluated. According to the results of the elections, the Central Election Commission of Ukraine recognized the elected deputies of the Verkhovna Rada of the seventh convocation of 220 candidates by majority districts and 225 by party lists. In particular, the Party of Regions received 185 seats in the new parliament (according to the lists - 72, majoritarian - 113); united opposition "Batkivschyna" - 101 place (62 and 39 respectively), "Beat" Vitali Klitschko - 40 places (34 and 6), "Freedom" - 37 places (25 and 12) - i.e. all opposition received 178 mandates; Communist Party - 32 seats (all by party list). In addition, the self-promoted 43, the United Center party representative, the People’s Party 3, the Lyashko Radical Party party, and the Union Party 2 passed through the majority districts to the Ukrainian parliament of the new convocation.
Taking into account the fact that the overwhelming majority of the self-promoted candidates who won the election are close to the ruling party, we can say a convincing victory in the elections of the Yanukovych party. Accordingly, the Ukrainian authorities have the opportunity to make any necessary decision in parliament by a simple majority of votes - 226, and it is quite possible to collect 300 votes to amend the Constitution of the country. In the 5 majority districts, the CEC and the Verkhovna Rada recommended holding repeated elections due to the inability to establish accurate results. At the same time, the opposition believes that the fact that the CEC has been recognized that it is impossible to establish the results of elections in these majoritarian constituencies means that they actually agree with the fact of manipulations and falsifications of the results of elections in these constituencies. According to statements from the Party of Regions camp, repeated elections in problem districts can be held in the spring of 2013.
Voter turnout was 57,99%, according to the CEC. The highest rates were traditionally recorded in the west of the country - in the Ternopil region - 66,78% and Lviv - 67,13%. The lowest turnout was observed in the base regions of the ruling party: in Crimea - 49,46% and Odessa region - 49,64%. In Donetsk region, 59,72% of voters came to vote, in Kiev - 62,11%, and in the capital a quarter of the voters supported Freedom.
The assessment of the Ukrainian elections by the international community was rather critical. In particular, as noted in the PACE final report, the parliamentary elections in Ukraine were overshadowed by an inadequate level of competition, which contributed to the dominance of large economic and financial groups, the use of administrative resources, the lack of transparency in campaign financing and parties, and an imbalance in media coverage. It was emphasized that the actual voting and the counting of votes were held quite professionally and calmly. Perhaps the harshest assessment of the elections was given by the US Department of State. "The parliamentary elections in Ukraine were a step back from the progress that was observed during the previous parliamentary elections and the presidential elections in 2010, which marked an important step taken by Ukraine towards democracy," Washington believes. However, the voiced criticism, at least for today, did not bring any visible practical consequences for Kiev. It looks like the West (for now?) Was satisfied with the promises of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry to carry out "work on the mistakes."
13 December The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine elected a member of the parliamentary faction of the Party of Regions, First Deputy Chairman of the Party of Regions Volodymyr Rybak as head of the Ukrainian parliament of the seventh convocation. Igor Kaletnik, member of the parliamentary faction of the Communist Party, became the first vice-speaker of the parliament, Ruslan Koshulinsky, a representative of Svoboda, became the second vice-speaker, whose candidacy was voted by 305 deputies, including the Party of Regions’s 126 deputies , for Fisherman - 241). The new speaker said that his political credo is "political stability and socio-economic development." “This position is supported by our people and our voter. For the chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, the main thing is a broad understanding of all political forces for the sake of the prosperity of the state, and this is above any party interests,” he said. Rybak calls himself a friend of the president, whom he says he has known for more than 250 years. Experts say that with such a speaker, Yanukovych can be sure that unexpected plots against him will not mature in the Verkhovna Rada.
3 December, Prime Minister Mykola Azarov appealed to the president with a letter of resignation, in connection with his election in the elections as people's deputy of Ukraine. Since, according to Article 115 of the Constitution, the resignation of the prime minister results in the resignation of the entire composition of the Cabinet of Ministers, the president also accepted the resignation of the Ukrainian government. On December 13, the Verkhovna Rada deputies reaffirmed Azarov as prime minister, supporting the President’s initiative with 252 in votes, and on December 24, Yanukovych appointed a new government, with only six ministers of the previous Cabinet retaining their posts. In particular, the president of Ukraine completely replaced the deputy prime ministers - Sergey Arbuzov became the first deputy prime minister of the Ukrainian government, Yuriy Boyko, Alexander Vilkul and Konstantin Grishchenko were appointed deputy prime ministers. According to the presidential decree, Arbuzov is responsible for the areas of agrarian policy and food, economic development, trade, social policy, finance, revenues and fees; Boyko - for the spheres of ecology, natural resources, energy, coal industry and industrial policy; Vilkul - for infrastructure, regional development, construction and housing and communal services, Grishchenko - for the humanitarian direction.
Experts and opposition politicians evaluate the new government unequivocally as strengthening the position of the "family" of Yanukovych. People belonging to the inner circle of the president and his eldest son Alexander are considered First Deputy Prime Minister Arbuzov, Finance Minister Yuri Kolobov, Head of the Ministry of Revenues and Fees Alexander Klimenko, Interior Minister Vitaly Zakharchenko. Moreover, according to many political analysts, this government is rather technical and will work just enough for Sergei Arbuzov to feel confident in himself that he will become the new prime minister. Interestingly, even Azarov himself does not deny the possibility of such a turn of events. "Sooner or later I will leave the post of prime minister. It is clear that there should be people in the government who are ready to replace the prime minister. The post of first vice prime minister is a very serious position that should help the prime minister in making and implementing decisions ... I am absolutely fine with the fact that the First Deputy Prime Minister is Sergey Arbuzov. And that Deputy Prime Minister who does not want to become Prime Minister is bad, ”the current Prime Minister told the press.
The representative of the president in the Verkhovna Rada, Yuri Miroshnichenko, told the press that Yanukovich was "very carefully and carefully studied every candidate." “The head of state has elected to the new government those people who will be able to most adequately meet the challenges that Ukraine faces and continue the course of reforms,” he said.
Appointments made in the early days of 2013, also confirm the course towards strengthening the "family". So, Yanukovych appointed Aleksandr Yakimenko to the post of chairman of the Security Service of Ukraine, and the Verkhovna Rada, on the recommendation of the president, approved Igor Sorkin as head of the National Bank of Ukraine. Both newly appointed bureaucrats enter the orbit of influence of Alexander Yanukovich.
Former Prime Minister of Ukraine, despite all the efforts of his supporters in Ukraine and rather harsh statements from abroad, continues to serve his sentence in the case of gas contracts with Russia. Moreover, in May 2012 of the year, the Prosecutor General of Ukraine Viktor Pshonka announced that Tymoshenko would be charged with four more criminal cases, including the organization of the resonant murder of the famous Ukrainian businessman and politician Yevgeny Shcherban in 1996.
The most resonant events related to Tymoshenko occurred in April - when transported from the colony to the hospital, according to the statement of the ex-prime minister, force was used to her. As stated in the appeal of Tymoshenko, they twisted her arms and punched her in the stomach, which left a large bruise. Photos showing the beating of the politician were shown publicly - in particular, at the meeting of the ombudsman with the ambassadors of all European countries.
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs also did not stand aside, calling on the Ukrainian authorities to treat Tymoshenko with humane treatment. Moreover, Vladimir Putin offered to treat the ex-prime minister of Ukraine in Russia: "If Yulia Vladimirovna finds it possible and if the authorities of Ukraine, our Ukrainian partners would agree with this, we would gladly accept Yulia Tymoshenko in Russia for treatment and for the authorities of Ukraine time, in any medical institution ".
8 January 2013, the year of Tymoshenko announced the action of civil disobedience, "to reduce the fear of the regime in society, to once again say (the authorities) that you are humiliating and destroying Ukraine." There are no prerequisites for the status of Tymoshenko to change in 2013, no. Unless, the ex-prime minister will be convicted to some other criminal case and transferred from the hospital where she is being treated now back to the colony.
In the absence of Tymoshenko, the leader of the Front for Change party, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, took the post of the main oppositionist of Ukraine. It was he (along with Tymoshenko) who headed the Batkivshchyna election list in parliamentary elections, it was he who became the head of the Batkivshchyna faction in the Verkhovna Rada of the seventh convocation. As soon as the faction of the party Tymoshenko, “Strike”, Klitschko and “Freedom” coordinated their actions for the unity of the opposition, a sudden blow to this scheme was dealt ... The European Parliament. In particular, the European Parliament in December called on democratic parties in the Verkhovna Rada not to unite, support or create alliances with Freedom, since this political force adheres to "racist, anti-Semitic and xenophobic views that contradict fundamental European values and principles."
However, the aforementioned resolution of the EP will apparently be ignored. On January 9, Vice-Speaker of the Ukrainian Parliament, member of the Freedom Party Ruslan Koshulinsky said that Freedom, Batkivshchyna and Udar will continue to cooperate, "and there will be no such things as centrifugal movements and some unconsolidated voting. " Yury Mikhalchishin, a deputy of the Verkhovna Rada from the Svoboda party, went further and said that perverts were sitting in the European Parliament and engaged in "soviet propaganda."
It would be quite correct to state that in the 2012 year, a regime of “soft isolation” was introduced for Viktor Yanukovych, especially from the leaders of the EU and leading European countries. In general, in the 2012 year, President of Ukraine Yanukovych made 17 visits abroad, most of which occurred in the Asian direction - in particular, Yanukovych visited India, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Jordan. Working visits of the head of the Ukrainian state to Cyprus, to Turkmenistan, Turkey, Korea and Poland also took place. Yanukovych 4 times with working visits visited Russia. Of the world scale events, the President of Ukraine attended the World Economic Forum in Davos, the 48 th Munich Security Policy Conference, the NATO North Atlantic Council meeting, the 67 Session of the UN General Assembly (the last two events were held in the United States). As you can see, there was not a single trip to Brussels or the capitals of the leading EU countries.
4 times President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych visited Russia in 2012 on a working visit, but the overall results of the year in this direction should be viewed through the prism of the fifth visit, scheduled for December 18, but which did not take place in the end. Throughout the year, official Kiev stood on the position that it did not want to choose between the Customs Union and the creation of an FTA with the EU, but closer to the New Year, the Ukrainian authorities made clear flirting with Moscow. In particular, Yanukovych at a briefing in Ashgabat on December 5 said that Kiev is set to search for effective cooperation with the Customs Union. "" We understand well: if we don’t find a tool for cooperation with the Customs Union, we can lose a lot - which is unacceptable for the economy today Of Ukraine. Our proposals, which we have been discussing for several years in a row, boil down to the fact that we need to adhere to certain provisions of the Customs Union, "he said.
A little later, in his address to the Ukrainian people and people's deputies in connection with the beginning of the Verkhovna Rada 7-th convocation, Yanukovych said that Ukraine will gradually join the rules of the Customs Union, because there is a huge market for Ukrainian goods. The apotheosis occurred in mid-December - the press reported that 17-18 December as part of the visit of the President of Ukraine to Moscow, could begin a reversal of the country's integration vector, convergence with the CU in the context of a huge budget deficit and uncertainty of European prospects.
The Ukrainian opposition, in turn, reported that under the "turn" and provided for a decrease in the price of Russian gas in 2 times. But in fact, at the last moment the visit was thwarted, because, according to the official version, "for the successful implementation of the agreements, additional consultations at the expert level are necessary."
However, some politicians in Kiev expressed much more harshly - for example, the deputy of the Verkhovna Rada and at that time the acting. Petro Poroshenko, Minister of Economy of the Government of Ukraine, explicitly stated that the visit was canceled on the initiative of the Russian side and why “it’s better to ask Vladimir Putin”. Another deputy and former head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Ukraine Viktor Baloga believes that the leadership of the Russian Federation has “too great demands on the Ukrainian side, the leadership of Russia wants too much”.
Summing up this topic, at his reporting press conference, Vladimir Putin said that Ukraine’s accession to the Customs Union is now not discussed at all. "In order for the speech to come exactly this way, we must receive the official application of Ukraine for joining the Customs Union. There is no such application." At the same time, he acknowledged that it is becoming more and more difficult for Ukraine to resolve its economic issues related to working in the Russian market. And the last statement in 2012 was voiced by Russia's ambassador to Ukraine, Mikhail Zurabov, who said that taking into account the existing realities, the decision on cooperation in the Ukraine-Ukraine direction should be made to Kiev in the next six months.
Ukraine and the EU
30 March 2012 the heads of the Ukrainian and EU delegations in Brussels initialed the association agreement, and in July the parties separately initialed the text of the free trade area agreement between Ukraine and the EU, which is an integral part of the association agreement. Thus, at the moment, the full text of the association agreement between Ukraine and the EU has been initialed, and the next step should be the ratification of this document.
During the year, critical statements about the "European integration" of Ukraine were heard from Brussels, despite the fact that Yulia Tymoshenko and a number of her comrades were behind bars, but by the end of the year, the EU’s position on this issue had softened. In particular, Catherine Ashton, a representative of the European Commission on foreign policy, said that the signing of an association agreement between Ukraine and the EU could occur during the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius (November 2013), and moreover, the EU does not exclude that signing take place before the summit. The same position was confirmed by the European Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighborhood Policy Stefan Fule.
Brussels sets the following conditions for Kiev - solving the problems of electoral legislation, electoral justice (without specifically mentioning Tymoshenko) and implementing the reforms laid down in the association's agenda. This position of the EU allowed Yanukovych during a meeting with the heads of diplomatic missions of foreign countries and international organizations of December 14 to declare that before the signing of the association agreement there was only one step left. “I am convinced that with the political will of both sides, we will be able to do it as soon as possible,” said Yanukovych.
The Ukrainian question was also discussed at the meeting of the European Parliament in December. As the media testify, during the discussion there was not a single vote against the signing of the association agreement, the only controversial moment is the decision to sign the document without delay or only when Kiev fulfills the conditions announced by the EU Council.
The European edition of EUobserver in December reported that the Czech Republic, Lithuania, Poland and Slovakia are ready to sign an association agreement with Ukraine during the Eastern Partnership summit in the autumn of 2013, "despite the erosion of democratic standards in Ukraine." "We do not consider (the contract) a gift for the Ukrainian government, but more a way of opening prospects for Ukrainian citizens and introducing a European agenda for the Ukrainian leadership," said a high-ranking diplomat in one of four countries. Sweden, Finland, Denmark and the Netherlands believe that the association agreement should be frozen, after the Ukrainian authorities concluded their political opponents and held parliamentary elections in their favor. France and the United Kingdom support negotiations at a low level, while Germany has not yet decided.
The strategic cooperation between Kiev and Beijing, which began officially in 2011, actively gathered momentum in 2012. In particular, in June 2012, during the official visit of the Ukrainian Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food, Nikolay Prisyazhnyuk to the People's Republic of China, a memorandum of cooperation was signed in support of priority projects in the agriculture of Ukraine. According to the agreement, it is planned to attract loan funds in the amount of $ 3 billion for the implementation of projects in the Ukrainian agricultural sector. According to experts, at the moment China is actively trying to protect itself from a possible food crisis and is seeking to make Ukraine its breadbasket.
December 25 signed a loan agreement between the NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy and the State Development Bank of the People's Republic of China on financing the implementation of a program to replace natural gas with Ukrainian coal totaling $ 3,656 billion under state guarantees of the Ukrainian government. The parties argued that the implementation of this program will allow Ukraine not only to significantly reduce import dependence and improve the energy security of the state. As stated by Prime Minister Azarov, the successful implementation of this project will allow the parties to talk about other, even more ambitious joint initiatives.
Earlier, President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych, congratulating Xi Jinping on his election as Secretary General of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, expressed hope for further dynamic development of bilateral strategic partnership, implementation of existing agreements on the implementation of large-scale projects in various areas of cooperation, expansion of humanitarian contacts between Ukraine and Ukraine. Chinese peoples. At the same time, the credit line of the State Bank of China for Ukraine already exceeds the annual loan portfolios of the World Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the European Investment Bank, moreover, Kiev is discussing with Beijing the opening of a representative office in Ukraine of the State Development Bank of China.
In general, it can be stated that China is quite actively involved in the global rally of the "Ukrainian card", and over the past 2 of the year has seriously strengthened its position in this direction.
President Viktor Yanukovych at the end of December directly acknowledged the poor results of the economic activity of Ukraine in 2012. "The work of the economy in 2012 was much worse than the forecasts ... They are worse than the indicators that were laid down when forming the budget for the current year," he said. Yanukovych recalled that according to the preliminary estimates of the government, GDP is planned for the year at a level of up to 1%, while the state budget-2012 laid down GDP growth of 3,9%. As a result, the state budget deficit amounted to 2,6%, which is higher than the initially set figure in 1,7%. "There are many countries in the world where these indicators are much worse, but they should not be comforted with this," he stated.
It is also worth noting that in 2012, the international reserves of Ukraine decreased by 22,8%, or $ 7,2 billion. Experts estimate that the critical level of reserves corresponds to a three-month volume of imports. For Ukraine, now this figure is about $ 21 billion. It looks logical that the international rating agency Moody's Investor's Service in December lowered the rating of Ukrainian government bonds by one notch - from B2 to B3, while the forecast is negative. The rating downgrade is explained by a decrease in the assessment of the institutional strength of Ukraine, a lack of external liquidity, which increases the risks for the national currency, as well as relatively weak economic forecasts for Ukraine. It is emphasized that Ukraine’s rating can be improved only when cooperation programs with the IMF are resumed.
Euro-2012 financial results
After the tournament at the time, First Deputy Prime Minister - Minister of Infrastructure of the Ukrainian Government Borys Kolesnikov said, Ukraine spent on preparing for Euro-2012 $ 5 billion, which were mainly used to build airports, roads, and transport infrastructure. At the same time, the opposition called other numbers, demanding the creation of a commission of inquiry on the use of $ 10 billion for training. The exact profit figures have not been announced, however, for reference, you can indicate that the National Bank of Ukraine hoped to receive $ 1 billion from the championship, while experts from the analytical group Da Vinci AG estimated that Ukraine would receive about $ 800 million. Seeing this state of affairs , President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych hastened to publicly state that it is impossible to calculate the economic effect of holding Euro-2012 today, "but it can be said for sure that this is an investment in the future." Economists unanimously noted the negatives from holding Euro-2012: the country needs to repay debts, look for funds to cover the budget deficit, and it is very doubtful whether built-up stadiums, hotels and airports will be used at full capacity.
Ukraine against the WTO
One of the long-running plots of the year in the economy was the intention of Ukraine to reconsider the conditions of its participation in the WTO. In particular, in Kiev, they intend to increase the maximum duty rates on 350 types of goods. “Ukraine acts in strict accordance with the WTO charter. We have the right to apply measures to protect our market under certain risks. And now we are going through all the procedures provided for by the WTO charters related to this revision,” the Prime Minister has repeatedly said Azarov. However, at the meeting of the WTO committee in October, 58 countries spoke against the desire of Ukraine to revise the duties; no one spoke in support. Moreover, the United States actually accused Ukraine of trying to undermine the foundations of the WTO, noting that the actions proposed by Ukraine would have serious systemic consequences, and everyone is very concerned about the precedent that may result.
In 2012, the onslaught of Kiev against Moscow, which has already become traditional in recent years, demanding a revision of the terms of the existing contracts, has somewhat weakened. The gas agenda was set by events of a different plan - in particular, Russia launched the second branch of the Nord Stream, further reducing the transit of "blue fuel" through the territory of Ukraine. The share of Ukraine in the transit of Russian gas to Europe in the first decade of January was 2013, 42% - for comparison, in the first quarter of 2011, Ukraine’s share was at the level of 63%, and in the first quarter of 2012, 56%. What is most unpleasant for Kiev, in 2012, the construction of South Stream, a project that in the near future makes the Ukrainian gas transport system absolutely unnecessary, officially started.
It is impossible not to note the return moves of Kiev on the "diversification" of sources of gas supplies. Thus, Naftogaz Ukrainy signed a contract with the German company RWE, which, in all likelihood, supplies gas to Ukraine, previously purchased from Gazprom. At the same time, as they say in Kiev, this gas "is significantly cheaper than the Russian one." In general, in 2012 Kiev imported from Europe about 57 million cubic meters of gas, which is only 0,2% of the volume that the company bought from Russia. However, it is stated that in the 2013 year, Ukraine plans to import about 5 billion cubic meters by the reverse scheme. m of gas.
26 November 2012, in the presence of Prime Minister Mykola Azarov, an agreement was signed to establish a consortium of investors for the Ukrainian national project LNG-terminal and to place a mobile floating platform for receiving liquefied natural gas near the port of Yuzhny in the Odessa region. At the signing ceremony, the head of the state agency for investment and national project management, Vladislav Kaskiv, said that the terminal would help in the shortest possible time to create an alternative source of gas supplies to the territory of Ukraine. "November 26 can be called the Day of Ukraine's energy independence," the official proclaimed. True, the very next day it turned out that the representative of Spain, who signed the documents - a certain Jordi Sarda Bonvei - was not related to the company Gas Natural SDG, called the future terminal operator, and the company itself stated that it had not signed any contracts. Subsequently, the press found out that Bonvei is an ordinary ski instructor who worked in the resorts of Andorra. Already in 2013, President Yanukovych said that no technical discrepancies would stop Ukraine, and the LNG terminal project should be implemented. True, there is no specifics with the project partners today, and Ukraine itself is unable to implement it.
Also, discussing the gas issue, it is worth noting that Ukraine in 2012 year, contrary to the terms of the contract, reduced the import of Russian gas by 40% and intends to reduce the level of purchases and further. Accordingly, according to lawyers, on the basis of 2012-2013. Gazprom may charge Ukraine $ 8,4 billion. Gazprom’s head Alexey Miller also acknowledged the possibility of going to court, saying to the press: “Without a doubt, we are very attentive to the legal aspects of the execution of our contract. Documents that we have today we have, in the event that the minimum volume of purchases of our Russian gas is not fulfilled, can form the basis of our claim to the Ukrainian side. "
The attraction of social generosity
7 March 2012 of the year (recall that we are talking about the year of parliamentary elections), Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych said that the positive growth dynamics of the national economy provides opportunities for improving social standards in Ukraine and outlined four strategic directions of social reforms - the restoration of the fundamental principle of social justice, the abolition benefits for those who do not need it; the transformation of approaches to wages, taxes and social insurance, restraining the further social and economic polarization of society; deep modernization of the sphere of social security, the transition from unsystematic payments to targeted payments; promoting effective employment and creating new jobs for citizens. He also said that the Ukrainian authorities are once again launching a program to return debts to depositors of the Sberbank of the USSR and instructed the government to conduct a gradual increase in pensions. As stated by the authorities, in general, the implementation of social initiatives in 2012 alone required about 16 billion hryvnia (approximately $ 2 billion). There are no exact figures on how much the Ukrainian government spent last year on “social”, but there is no doubt that the above payments contributed in no small measure to the sad results for the year for the Ukrainian economy.
Ukraine and the IMF
In Kiev, they do not lose hope that sooner or later the pause in relations with the foundation will end and the parties will manage to agree on further cooperation. The main and perhaps the only controversial issue is the increase in gas tariffs for the population of Ukraine. "We can recall the example of France, where the increase in 2% of the cost of gas for the population was discussed for almost a year. The IMF suggests that we increase tariffs by 50%, but, to put it mildly, our people are poorer than the French, so we suggest finding other ways to reduce the budget deficit and ensure stability of the national currency, "said Prime Minister Azarov. At the end of December, he noted that there are enough financial resources in the world without the IMF, "and we are now working to attract them into the economy of Ukraine on favorable terms." However, the fund's experts still do not remain aloof from the affairs in the Ukrainian economy, in particular, the authorities did not hide the fact that the IMF representative oversees the process of preparing the state budget.
On August 8, President of Ukraine Yanukovych signed the law On the Basics of the State Language Policy, previously adopted by the Verkhovna Rada. This document, in particular, provides for the establishment of the official use of regional languages in the work of local government bodies when living at least 10% of speakers in the territories in which this language is spoken. Accordingly, the Russian language received regional status in the 13 administrative-territorial units of Ukraine - in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhya, Lugansk, Nikolaev, Odessa, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson, Chernihiv regions, the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the cities of Kiev and Sevastopol. However, it is hardly correct to consider this obvious election move as a game to strengthen the position of the Russian language in Ukraine, since now it has actually lost the higher status of the language of international communication. In terms of application, “regional status” often does not mean anything at all, since local budgets do not have the funds (and sometimes even desires) to strengthen the Russian.
In addition, having signed the law, Yanukovych actually immediately reversed, instructing the Cabinet of Ministers to form a working group to develop and make system proposals for the improvement of legislation on the use of languages in Ukraine, in particular, to ensure the "full development and functioning of Ukrainian language. " The working group, composed mainly of representatives of pro-nationalist views, proposed a new version of the law, much less loyal to the Russian language. Thus, the status of regional languages for national minorities is not provided, only measures to protect them are assumed if there is at least 30% native speakers of such a language in a certain territory. Also, the bill retains the Ukrainian language status of the state and contains measures to protect it - in particular, the use of the state language is mandatory in court and office work, in the activities of government bodies, the armed forces, in science and education, advertising. In the field of information and media, the document sets the 75-percentage broadcasting quota (now 25%) in the Ukrainian language of the total daily broadcast. All this gave grounds for Vadim Kolesnichenko, co-author of the original law of Ukraine “On the basis of the state language policy,” to name the proposed changes as a draft with a national-fascist ideology. In general, we can say that the language issue is unlikely to be raised in Ukraine in the near future. For all participants in the political process, it is much more convenient to postpone the relevant clashes to the right occasion, for example, the electoral presidential campaign in 2015.
Also from the high-profile events of the year in the humanitarian sphere in Ukraine, it is worth noting the introduction in Lviv of their own, radically different from the general Ukrainian, textbooks on stories Of Ukraine, problems with the hire in Ukraine of the film "Match" directed by Andrei Malyukov about the "death match" with the participation of "Dynamo" (Kiev) during the Great Patriotic War, the conflict of Communist Party Deputy Yevgeny Tsarkov with nationalist forces associated with his statement on one of the TV channels "Few of the NKVD you, Bandera, shot," a march in Kiev in honor of the 70 anniversary of the establishment of the UPA, recognized as the most massive procession in the entire history of the independence of Ukraine. 1 January 2013 of the year in Ukraine celebrated the anniversary of the birth of OUN leader Stepan Bandera on a large scale. Marches, rallies and other actions for the birthday of the "leader of the Ukrainian nation" took place in Kiev, very massively in Galicia, also in Lugansk, Zaporozhye, Kharkov, Poltava, Odessa, Melitopol, Dneprodzerzhinsk, Kirovograd, Sumy, Zhytomyr and other cities of the country.
The main challenges are 2013 for Ukraine
1. Strengthening the confrontation of "family" Yanukovych with other oligarchs. Ukraine has already de facto launched a campaign to prepare for the presidential election-2015, in which the "family" is intensively accumulating financial and human resources. Naturally, this process is met with misunderstanding and resistance of the leading oligarchs of the country. The open war of the “family” against one of them is not excluded, or the fun completely traditional for Ukraine is the war of all against all.
2. Fascism of the Verkhovna Rada and the public life of the country. Having barely begun his work in the Verkhovna Rada, the representatives of Freedom are quite tough trying to impose their rules. In particular, the nationalists are trying to organize a boycott of the Russian language within the precincts of parliament, preventing Russian-speaking parliamentarians from speaking. The biggest public actions in 2012, the marches in honor of the 70 anniversary of the creation of the UPA and the birthday of Bandera, were also held by the nationalists. In the context of the popular version of political scientists that the government is playing along with “Svoboda”, so that Oleg Tyagnibok becomes Yanukovych’s main rival in the presidential election, one can only assume that the Ukrainian neo-fascists are still more radicalized. In this situation, the party and the team of Yanukovych will find it harder to play in “confronting” the brown threat and “respecting the balance of interests” in society, and by the 2015 year, Yanukovych risks coming not only with zero, but with antirating. And the prospect of repeating the fate of the Weimar Republic may be aggravated by spontaneous mass riots and the territorial collapse of Ukraine.
3. The end of "multi-vector" and the end of Ukraine. In the 2013 year, theoretically, an association agreement between Ukraine and the EU could be signed. Kyiv and Brussels also outlined the following events: a meeting of the Ukraine-EU Cooperation Council, a Ukraine-EU summit, an Eastern Partnership summit. The Prime Minister of Ukraine has already announced that he will personally coordinate the implementation of the plan for "European integration", and the activities in this direction should be "as substantive as possible, productive and responsible." On the other hand, the Russian ambassador to Ukraine, Mikhail Zurabov, at the end of December declared that the decision on cooperation in the Ukraine-CU direction should be taken in the next six months. Accordingly, in the 2013 year, Kiev will have to finally decide on the foreign policy choice and no matter how this decision is, half of the country will remain unhappy in any case (which will only aggravate the West-East Ukraine split line). And whether Kiev is ready to withstand the press of the external "losing" partner is also a big question. Thus, the end of "multi-vector" could be the end of Ukraine in its current form, but the continuation of this policy is fraught with an explosion from the inside. In this regard, the federalization of Ukraine - an idea whose banner in 2004 was Viktor Yanukovych himself and the Party of Regions - could formalize the process of the disintegration of Ukraine according to the softest possible scenario. However, it is obvious that Yanukovych and the Regionals will not decide on this step under any circumstances.
4. Growing socio-economic crisis. The global economic crisis and the corresponding decline in industrial production in Ukraine, the lack of lenders willing to help, the consequences of Euro-2012 and pre-election populist social policies, the gradual closure of the Customs Union markets and conflict with the WTO, the most serious debt obligations and heavy gas contracts are far from complete the list of factors emphasizing that in terms of the economy, Ukraine faces a very difficult year. The beginning of the year only confirms this - the New Year holidays were not over yet, when in the Lugansk region of Ukraine the rebellious miners occupied the office of the director of the enterprise in order to cancel the order on reorganization. "Where are you going to put tens of thousands of people who may be left without livelihood? Maybe you have already prepared a crematorium for us, and it remains to drive us to concentration camps?" - the miners are wondering. On the same day, an all-Ukrainian protest action of independent trade unions of railway workers of Ukraine started in Kharkov. Experts say bluntly that in 2013, a social explosion may occur in the east of Ukraine, despite the fact that in the west of the country the situation is not at all bright.