Military Review

Ukraine: 2012 Results and Challenges 2013: China's breadbasket, IMF slave, Weimar Republic, dying GTS and impending riot

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Ukraine: 2012 Results and Challenges 2013: China's breadbasket, IMF slave, Weimar Republic, dying GTS and impending riot

A radical change in the structure of executive power, the new parliament, in which for the first time since Ukraine’s independence, the ultra-right political force is represented - “Freedom”, a social and economic crisis growing like a snowball, actual foreign policy isolation for Ukrainian leaders, permanent “games” with Russia about the Customs Union and gas contracts - these are the main milestones of 2012 for Ukraine.


Domestic policy

Parliamentary elections and reformatting of the legislature

The main event of the year was the next parliamentary elections held in Ukraine on October 28. It was the elections that set the domestic political agenda all year round and it was through the prism of the struggle for votes that the most resonant events in the country should be evaluated. According to the results of the elections, the Central Election Commission of Ukraine recognized the elected deputies of the Verkhovna Rada of the seventh convocation of 220 candidates by majority districts and 225 by party lists. In particular, the Party of Regions received 185 seats in the new parliament (according to the lists - 72, majoritarian - 113); united opposition "Batkivschyna" - 101 place (62 and 39 respectively), "Beat" Vitali Klitschko - 40 places (34 and 6), "Freedom" - 37 places (25 and 12) - i.e. all opposition received 178 mandates; Communist Party - 32 seats (all by party list). In addition, the self-promoted 43, the United Center party representative, the People’s Party 3, the Lyashko Radical Party party, and the Union Party 2 passed through the majority districts to the Ukrainian parliament of the new convocation.

Taking into account the fact that the overwhelming majority of the self-promoted candidates who won the election are close to the ruling party, we can say a convincing victory in the elections of the Yanukovych party. Accordingly, the Ukrainian authorities have the opportunity to make any necessary decision in parliament by a simple majority of votes - 226, and it is quite possible to collect 300 votes to amend the Constitution of the country. In the 5 majority districts, the CEC and the Verkhovna Rada recommended holding repeated elections due to the inability to establish accurate results. At the same time, the opposition believes that the fact that the CEC has been recognized that it is impossible to establish the results of elections in these majoritarian constituencies means that they actually agree with the fact of manipulations and falsifications of the results of elections in these constituencies. According to statements from the Party of Regions camp, repeated elections in problem districts can be held in the spring of 2013.

Voter turnout was 57,99%, according to the CEC. The highest rates were traditionally recorded in the west of the country - in the Ternopil region - 66,78% and Lviv - 67,13%. The lowest turnout was observed in the base regions of the ruling party: in Crimea - 49,46% and Odessa region - 49,64%. In Donetsk region, 59,72% of voters came to vote, in Kiev - 62,11%, and in the capital a quarter of the voters supported Freedom.

The assessment of the Ukrainian elections by the international community was rather critical. In particular, as noted in the PACE final report, the parliamentary elections in Ukraine were overshadowed by an inadequate level of competition, which contributed to the dominance of large economic and financial groups, the use of administrative resources, the lack of transparency in campaign financing and parties, and an imbalance in media coverage. It was emphasized that the actual voting and the counting of votes were held quite professionally and calmly. Perhaps the harshest assessment of the elections was given by the US Department of State. "The parliamentary elections in Ukraine were a step back from the progress that was observed during the previous parliamentary elections and the presidential elections in 2010, which marked an important step taken by Ukraine towards democracy," Washington believes. However, the voiced criticism, at least for today, did not bring any visible practical consequences for Kiev. It looks like the West (for now?) Was satisfied with the promises of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry to carry out "work on the mistakes."

13 December The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine elected a member of the parliamentary faction of the Party of Regions, First Deputy Chairman of the Party of Regions Volodymyr Rybak as head of the Ukrainian parliament of the seventh convocation. Igor Kaletnik, member of the parliamentary faction of the Communist Party, became the first vice-speaker of the parliament, Ruslan Koshulinsky, a representative of Svoboda, became the second vice-speaker, whose candidacy was voted by 305 deputies, including the Party of Regions’s 126 deputies , for Fisherman - 241). The new speaker said that his political credo is "political stability and socio-economic development." “This position is supported by our people and our voter. For the chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, the main thing is a broad understanding of all political forces for the sake of the prosperity of the state, and this is above any party interests,” he said. Rybak calls himself a friend of the president, whom he says he has known for more than 250 years. Experts say that with such a speaker, Yanukovych can be sure that unexpected plots against him will not mature in the Verkhovna Rada.

Reformatting executive

3 December, Prime Minister Mykola Azarov appealed to the president with a letter of resignation, in connection with his election in the elections as people's deputy of Ukraine. Since, according to Article 115 of the Constitution, the resignation of the prime minister results in the resignation of the entire composition of the Cabinet of Ministers, the president also accepted the resignation of the Ukrainian government. On December 13, the Verkhovna Rada deputies reaffirmed Azarov as prime minister, supporting the President’s initiative with 252 in votes, and on December 24, Yanukovych appointed a new government, with only six ministers of the previous Cabinet retaining their posts. In particular, the president of Ukraine completely replaced the deputy prime ministers - Sergey Arbuzov became the first deputy prime minister of the Ukrainian government, Yuriy Boyko, Alexander Vilkul and Konstantin Grishchenko were appointed deputy prime ministers. According to the presidential decree, Arbuzov is responsible for the areas of agrarian policy and food, economic development, trade, social policy, finance, revenues and fees; Boyko - for the spheres of ecology, natural resources, energy, coal industry and industrial policy; Vilkul - for infrastructure, regional development, construction and housing and communal services, Grishchenko - for the humanitarian direction.

Experts and opposition politicians evaluate the new government unequivocally as strengthening the position of the "family" of Yanukovych. People belonging to the inner circle of the president and his eldest son Alexander are considered First Deputy Prime Minister Arbuzov, Finance Minister Yuri Kolobov, Head of the Ministry of Revenues and Fees Alexander Klimenko, Interior Minister Vitaly Zakharchenko. Moreover, according to many political analysts, this government is rather technical and will work just enough for Sergei Arbuzov to feel confident in himself that he will become the new prime minister. Interestingly, even Azarov himself does not deny the possibility of such a turn of events. "Sooner or later I will leave the post of prime minister. It is clear that there should be people in the government who are ready to replace the prime minister. The post of first vice prime minister is a very serious position that should help the prime minister in making and implementing decisions ... I am absolutely fine with the fact that the First Deputy Prime Minister is Sergey Arbuzov. And that Deputy Prime Minister who does not want to become Prime Minister is bad, ”the current Prime Minister told the press.

The representative of the president in the Verkhovna Rada, Yuri Miroshnichenko, told the press that Yanukovich was "very carefully and carefully studied every candidate." “The head of state has elected to the new government those people who will be able to most adequately meet the challenges that Ukraine faces and continue the course of reforms,” he said.

Appointments made in the early days of 2013, also confirm the course towards strengthening the "family". So, Yanukovych appointed Aleksandr Yakimenko to the post of chairman of the Security Service of Ukraine, and the Verkhovna Rada, on the recommendation of the president, approved Igor Sorkin as head of the National Bank of Ukraine. Both newly appointed bureaucrats enter the orbit of influence of Alexander Yanukovich.

Opposition

Former Prime Minister of Ukraine, despite all the efforts of his supporters in Ukraine and rather harsh statements from abroad, continues to serve his sentence in the case of gas contracts with Russia. Moreover, in May 2012 of the year, the Prosecutor General of Ukraine Viktor Pshonka announced that Tymoshenko would be charged with four more criminal cases, including the organization of the resonant murder of the famous Ukrainian businessman and politician Yevgeny Shcherban in 1996.

The most resonant events related to Tymoshenko occurred in April - when transported from the colony to the hospital, according to the statement of the ex-prime minister, force was used to her. As stated in the appeal of Tymoshenko, they twisted her arms and punched her in the stomach, which left a large bruise. Photos showing the beating of the politician were shown publicly - in particular, at the meeting of the ombudsman with the ambassadors of all European countries.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs also did not stand aside, calling on the Ukrainian authorities to treat Tymoshenko with humane treatment. Moreover, Vladimir Putin offered to treat the ex-prime minister of Ukraine in Russia: "If Yulia Vladimirovna finds it possible and if the authorities of Ukraine, our Ukrainian partners would agree with this, we would gladly accept Yulia Tymoshenko in Russia for treatment and for the authorities of Ukraine time, in any medical institution ".

8 January 2013, the year of Tymoshenko announced the action of civil disobedience, "to reduce the fear of the regime in society, to once again say (the authorities) that you are humiliating and destroying Ukraine." There are no prerequisites for the status of Tymoshenko to change in 2013, no. Unless, the ex-prime minister will be convicted to some other criminal case and transferred from the hospital where she is being treated now back to the colony.

In the absence of Tymoshenko, the leader of the Front for Change party, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, took the post of the main oppositionist of Ukraine. It was he (along with Tymoshenko) who headed the Batkivshchyna election list in parliamentary elections, it was he who became the head of the Batkivshchyna faction in the Verkhovna Rada of the seventh convocation. As soon as the faction of the party Tymoshenko, “Strike”, Klitschko and “Freedom” coordinated their actions for the unity of the opposition, a sudden blow to this scheme was dealt ... The European Parliament. In particular, the European Parliament in December called on democratic parties in the Verkhovna Rada not to unite, support or create alliances with Freedom, since this political force adheres to "racist, anti-Semitic and xenophobic views that contradict fundamental European values ​​and principles."

However, the aforementioned resolution of the EP will apparently be ignored. On January 9, Vice-Speaker of the Ukrainian Parliament, member of the Freedom Party Ruslan Koshulinsky said that Freedom, Batkivshchyna and Udar will continue to cooperate, "and there will be no such things as centrifugal movements and some unconsolidated voting. " Yury Mikhalchishin, a deputy of the Verkhovna Rada from the Svoboda party, went further and said that perverts were sitting in the European Parliament and engaged in "soviet propaganda."

Foreign policy

It would be quite correct to state that in the 2012 year, a regime of “soft isolation” was introduced for Viktor Yanukovych, especially from the leaders of the EU and leading European countries. In general, in the 2012 year, President of Ukraine Yanukovych made 17 visits abroad, most of which occurred in the Asian direction - in particular, Yanukovych visited India, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Jordan. Working visits of the head of the Ukrainian state to Cyprus, to Turkmenistan, Turkey, Korea and Poland also took place. Yanukovych 4 times with working visits visited Russia. Of the world scale events, the President of Ukraine attended the World Economic Forum in Davos, the 48 th Munich Security Policy Conference, the NATO North Atlantic Council meeting, the 67 Session of the UN General Assembly (the last two events were held in the United States). As you can see, there was not a single trip to Brussels or the capitals of the leading EU countries.

Ukraine Russia

4 times President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych visited Russia in 2012 on a working visit, but the overall results of the year in this direction should be viewed through the prism of the fifth visit, scheduled for December 18, but which did not take place in the end. Throughout the year, official Kiev stood on the position that it did not want to choose between the Customs Union and the creation of an FTA with the EU, but closer to the New Year, the Ukrainian authorities made clear flirting with Moscow. In particular, Yanukovych at a briefing in Ashgabat on December 5 said that Kiev is set to search for effective cooperation with the Customs Union. "" We understand well: if we don’t find a tool for cooperation with the Customs Union, we can lose a lot - which is unacceptable for the economy today Of Ukraine. Our proposals, which we have been discussing for several years in a row, boil down to the fact that we need to adhere to certain provisions of the Customs Union, "he said.

A little later, in his address to the Ukrainian people and people's deputies in connection with the beginning of the Verkhovna Rada 7-th convocation, Yanukovych said that Ukraine will gradually join the rules of the Customs Union, because there is a huge market for Ukrainian goods. The apotheosis occurred in mid-December - the press reported that 17-18 December as part of the visit of the President of Ukraine to Moscow, could begin a reversal of the country's integration vector, convergence with the CU in the context of a huge budget deficit and uncertainty of European prospects.

The Ukrainian opposition, in turn, reported that under the "turn" and provided for a decrease in the price of Russian gas in 2 times. But in fact, at the last moment the visit was thwarted, because, according to the official version, "for the successful implementation of the agreements, additional consultations at the expert level are necessary."

However, some politicians in Kiev expressed much more harshly - for example, the deputy of the Verkhovna Rada and at that time the acting. Petro Poroshenko, Minister of Economy of the Government of Ukraine, explicitly stated that the visit was canceled on the initiative of the Russian side and why “it’s better to ask Vladimir Putin”. Another deputy and former head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Ukraine Viktor Baloga believes that the leadership of the Russian Federation has “too great demands on the Ukrainian side, the leadership of Russia wants too much”.

Summing up this topic, at his reporting press conference, Vladimir Putin said that Ukraine’s accession to the Customs Union is now not discussed at all. "In order for the speech to come exactly this way, we must receive the official application of Ukraine for joining the Customs Union. There is no such application." At the same time, he acknowledged that it is becoming more and more difficult for Ukraine to resolve its economic issues related to working in the Russian market. And the last statement in 2012 was voiced by Russia's ambassador to Ukraine, Mikhail Zurabov, who said that taking into account the existing realities, the decision on cooperation in the Ukraine-Ukraine direction should be made to Kiev in the next six months.

Ukraine and the EU

30 March 2012 the heads of the Ukrainian and EU delegations in Brussels initialed the association agreement, and in July the parties separately initialed the text of the free trade area agreement between Ukraine and the EU, which is an integral part of the association agreement. Thus, at the moment, the full text of the association agreement between Ukraine and the EU has been initialed, and the next step should be the ratification of this document.

During the year, critical statements about the "European integration" of Ukraine were heard from Brussels, despite the fact that Yulia Tymoshenko and a number of her comrades were behind bars, but by the end of the year, the EU’s position on this issue had softened. In particular, Catherine Ashton, a representative of the European Commission on foreign policy, said that the signing of an association agreement between Ukraine and the EU could occur during the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius (November 2013), and moreover, the EU does not exclude that signing take place before the summit. The same position was confirmed by the European Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighborhood Policy Stefan Fule.

Brussels sets the following conditions for Kiev - solving the problems of electoral legislation, electoral justice (without specifically mentioning Tymoshenko) and implementing the reforms laid down in the association's agenda. This position of the EU allowed Yanukovych during a meeting with the heads of diplomatic missions of foreign countries and international organizations of December 14 to declare that before the signing of the association agreement there was only one step left. “I am convinced that with the political will of both sides, we will be able to do it as soon as possible,” said Yanukovych.

The Ukrainian question was also discussed at the meeting of the European Parliament in December. As the media testify, during the discussion there was not a single vote against the signing of the association agreement, the only controversial moment is the decision to sign the document without delay or only when Kiev fulfills the conditions announced by the EU Council.

The European edition of EUobserver in December reported that the Czech Republic, Lithuania, Poland and Slovakia are ready to sign an association agreement with Ukraine during the Eastern Partnership summit in the autumn of 2013, "despite the erosion of democratic standards in Ukraine." "We do not consider (the contract) a gift for the Ukrainian government, but more a way of opening prospects for Ukrainian citizens and introducing a European agenda for the Ukrainian leadership," said a high-ranking diplomat in one of four countries. Sweden, Finland, Denmark and the Netherlands believe that the association agreement should be frozen, after the Ukrainian authorities concluded their political opponents and held parliamentary elections in their favor. France and the United Kingdom support negotiations at a low level, while Germany has not yet decided.

Ukraine-China

The strategic cooperation between Kiev and Beijing, which began officially in 2011, actively gathered momentum in 2012. In particular, in June 2012, during the official visit of the Ukrainian Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food, Nikolay Prisyazhnyuk to the People's Republic of China, a memorandum of cooperation was signed in support of priority projects in the agriculture of Ukraine. According to the agreement, it is planned to attract loan funds in the amount of $ 3 billion for the implementation of projects in the Ukrainian agricultural sector. According to experts, at the moment China is actively trying to protect itself from a possible food crisis and is seeking to make Ukraine its breadbasket.

December 25 signed a loan agreement between the NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy and the State Development Bank of the People's Republic of China on financing the implementation of a program to replace natural gas with Ukrainian coal totaling $ 3,656 billion under state guarantees of the Ukrainian government. The parties argued that the implementation of this program will allow Ukraine not only to significantly reduce import dependence and improve the energy security of the state. As stated by Prime Minister Azarov, the successful implementation of this project will allow the parties to talk about other, even more ambitious joint initiatives.

Earlier, President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych, congratulating Xi Jinping on his election as Secretary General of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, expressed hope for further dynamic development of bilateral strategic partnership, implementation of existing agreements on the implementation of large-scale projects in various areas of cooperation, expansion of humanitarian contacts between Ukraine and Ukraine. Chinese peoples. At the same time, the credit line of the State Bank of China for Ukraine already exceeds the annual loan portfolios of the World Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the European Investment Bank, moreover, Kiev is discussing with Beijing the opening of a representative office in Ukraine of the State Development Bank of China.

In general, it can be stated that China is quite actively involved in the global rally of the "Ukrainian card", and over the past 2 of the year has seriously strengthened its position in this direction.

Socio-economic crisis

President Viktor Yanukovych at the end of December directly acknowledged the poor results of the economic activity of Ukraine in 2012. "The work of the economy in 2012 was much worse than the forecasts ... They are worse than the indicators that were laid down when forming the budget for the current year," he said. Yanukovych recalled that according to the preliminary estimates of the government, GDP is planned for the year at a level of up to 1%, while the state budget-2012 laid down GDP growth of 3,9%. As a result, the state budget deficit amounted to 2,6%, which is higher than the initially set figure in 1,7%. "There are many countries in the world where these indicators are much worse, but they should not be comforted with this," he stated.

It is also worth noting that in 2012, the international reserves of Ukraine decreased by 22,8%, or $ 7,2 billion. Experts estimate that the critical level of reserves corresponds to a three-month volume of imports. For Ukraine, now this figure is about $ 21 billion. It looks logical that the international rating agency Moody's Investor's Service in December lowered the rating of Ukrainian government bonds by one notch - from B2 to B3, while the forecast is negative. The rating downgrade is explained by a decrease in the assessment of the institutional strength of Ukraine, a lack of external liquidity, which increases the risks for the national currency, as well as relatively weak economic forecasts for Ukraine. It is emphasized that Ukraine’s rating can be improved only when cooperation programs with the IMF are resumed.

Euro-2012 financial results

After the tournament at the time, First Deputy Prime Minister - Minister of Infrastructure of the Ukrainian Government Borys Kolesnikov said, Ukraine spent on preparing for Euro-2012 $ 5 billion, which were mainly used to build airports, roads, and transport infrastructure. At the same time, the opposition called other numbers, demanding the creation of a commission of inquiry on the use of $ 10 billion for training. The exact profit figures have not been announced, however, for reference, you can indicate that the National Bank of Ukraine hoped to receive $ 1 billion from the championship, while experts from the analytical group Da Vinci AG estimated that Ukraine would receive about $ 800 million. Seeing this state of affairs , President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych hastened to publicly state that it is impossible to calculate the economic effect of holding Euro-2012 today, "but it can be said for sure that this is an investment in the future." Economists unanimously noted the negatives from holding Euro-2012: the country needs to repay debts, look for funds to cover the budget deficit, and it is very doubtful whether built-up stadiums, hotels and airports will be used at full capacity.

Ukraine against the WTO

One of the long-running plots of the year in the economy was the intention of Ukraine to reconsider the conditions of its participation in the WTO. In particular, in Kiev, they intend to increase the maximum duty rates on 350 types of goods. “Ukraine acts in strict accordance with the WTO charter. We have the right to apply measures to protect our market under certain risks. And now we are going through all the procedures provided for by the WTO charters related to this revision,” the Prime Minister has repeatedly said Azarov. However, at the meeting of the WTO committee in October, 58 countries spoke against the desire of Ukraine to revise the duties; no one spoke in support. Moreover, the United States actually accused Ukraine of trying to undermine the foundations of the WTO, noting that the actions proposed by Ukraine would have serious systemic consequences, and everyone is very concerned about the precedent that may result.

Gas issue

In 2012, the onslaught of Kiev against Moscow, which has already become traditional in recent years, demanding a revision of the terms of the existing contracts, has somewhat weakened. The gas agenda was set by events of a different plan - in particular, Russia launched the second branch of the Nord Stream, further reducing the transit of "blue fuel" through the territory of Ukraine. The share of Ukraine in the transit of Russian gas to Europe in the first decade of January was 2013, 42% - for comparison, in the first quarter of 2011, Ukraine’s share was at the level of 63%, and in the first quarter of 2012, 56%. What is most unpleasant for Kiev, in 2012, the construction of South Stream, a project that in the near future makes the Ukrainian gas transport system absolutely unnecessary, officially started.

It is impossible not to note the return moves of Kiev on the "diversification" of sources of gas supplies. Thus, Naftogaz Ukrainy signed a contract with the German company RWE, which, in all likelihood, supplies gas to Ukraine, previously purchased from Gazprom. At the same time, as they say in Kiev, this gas "is significantly cheaper than the Russian one." In general, in 2012 Kiev imported from Europe about 57 million cubic meters of gas, which is only 0,2% of the volume that the company bought from Russia. However, it is stated that in the 2013 year, Ukraine plans to import about 5 billion cubic meters by the reverse scheme. m of gas.

26 November 2012, in the presence of Prime Minister Mykola Azarov, an agreement was signed to establish a consortium of investors for the Ukrainian national project LNG-terminal and to place a mobile floating platform for receiving liquefied natural gas near the port of Yuzhny in the Odessa region. At the signing ceremony, the head of the state agency for investment and national project management, Vladislav Kaskiv, said that the terminal would help in the shortest possible time to create an alternative source of gas supplies to the territory of Ukraine. "November 26 can be called the Day of Ukraine's energy independence," the official proclaimed. True, the very next day it turned out that the representative of Spain, who signed the documents - a certain Jordi Sarda Bonvei - was not related to the company Gas Natural SDG, called the future terminal operator, and the company itself stated that it had not signed any contracts. Subsequently, the press found out that Bonvei is an ordinary ski instructor who worked in the resorts of Andorra. Already in 2013, President Yanukovych said that no technical discrepancies would stop Ukraine, and the LNG terminal project should be implemented. True, there is no specifics with the project partners today, and Ukraine itself is unable to implement it.

Also, discussing the gas issue, it is worth noting that Ukraine in 2012 year, contrary to the terms of the contract, reduced the import of Russian gas by 40% and intends to reduce the level of purchases and further. Accordingly, according to lawyers, on the basis of 2012-2013. Gazprom may charge Ukraine $ 8,4 billion. Gazprom’s head Alexey Miller also acknowledged the possibility of going to court, saying to the press: “Without a doubt, we are very attentive to the legal aspects of the execution of our contract. Documents that we have today we have, in the event that the minimum volume of purchases of our Russian gas is not fulfilled, can form the basis of our claim to the Ukrainian side. "

The attraction of social generosity

7 March 2012 of the year (recall that we are talking about the year of parliamentary elections), Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych said that the positive growth dynamics of the national economy provides opportunities for improving social standards in Ukraine and outlined four strategic directions of social reforms - the restoration of the fundamental principle of social justice, the abolition benefits for those who do not need it; the transformation of approaches to wages, taxes and social insurance, restraining the further social and economic polarization of society; deep modernization of the sphere of social security, the transition from unsystematic payments to targeted payments; promoting effective employment and creating new jobs for citizens. He also said that the Ukrainian authorities are once again launching a program to return debts to depositors of the Sberbank of the USSR and instructed the government to conduct a gradual increase in pensions. As stated by the authorities, in general, the implementation of social initiatives in 2012 alone required about 16 billion hryvnia (approximately $ 2 billion). There are no exact figures on how much the Ukrainian government spent last year on “social”, but there is no doubt that the above payments contributed in no small measure to the sad results for the year for the Ukrainian economy.

Ukraine and the IMF

In Kiev, they do not lose hope that sooner or later the pause in relations with the foundation will end and the parties will manage to agree on further cooperation. The main and perhaps the only controversial issue is the increase in gas tariffs for the population of Ukraine. "We can recall the example of France, where the increase in 2% of the cost of gas for the population was discussed for almost a year. The IMF suggests that we increase tariffs by 50%, but, to put it mildly, our people are poorer than the French, so we suggest finding other ways to reduce the budget deficit and ensure stability of the national currency, "said Prime Minister Azarov. At the end of December, he noted that there are enough financial resources in the world without the IMF, "and we are now working to attract them into the economy of Ukraine on favorable terms." However, the fund's experts still do not remain aloof from the affairs in the Ukrainian economy, in particular, the authorities did not hide the fact that the IMF representative oversees the process of preparing the state budget.

Humanitarian policy

Language law

On August 8, President of Ukraine Yanukovych signed the law On the Basics of the State Language Policy, previously adopted by the Verkhovna Rada. This document, in particular, provides for the establishment of the official use of regional languages ​​in the work of local government bodies when living at least 10% of speakers in the territories in which this language is spoken. Accordingly, the Russian language received regional status in the 13 administrative-territorial units of Ukraine - in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhya, Lugansk, Nikolaev, Odessa, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson, Chernihiv regions, the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the cities of Kiev and Sevastopol. However, it is hardly correct to consider this obvious election move as a game to strengthen the position of the Russian language in Ukraine, since now it has actually lost the higher status of the language of international communication. In terms of application, “regional status” often does not mean anything at all, since local budgets do not have the funds (and sometimes even desires) to strengthen the Russian.

In addition, having signed the law, Yanukovych actually immediately reversed, instructing the Cabinet of Ministers to form a working group to develop and make system proposals for the improvement of legislation on the use of languages ​​in Ukraine, in particular, to ensure the "full development and functioning of Ukrainian language. " The working group, composed mainly of representatives of pro-nationalist views, proposed a new version of the law, much less loyal to the Russian language. Thus, the status of regional languages ​​for national minorities is not provided, only measures to protect them are assumed if there is at least 30% native speakers of such a language in a certain territory. Also, the bill retains the Ukrainian language status of the state and contains measures to protect it - in particular, the use of the state language is mandatory in court and office work, in the activities of government bodies, the armed forces, in science and education, advertising. In the field of information and media, the document sets the 75-percentage broadcasting quota (now 25%) in the Ukrainian language of the total daily broadcast. All this gave grounds for Vadim Kolesnichenko, co-author of the original law of Ukraine “On the basis of the state language policy,” to name the proposed changes as a draft with a national-fascist ideology. In general, we can say that the language issue is unlikely to be raised in Ukraine in the near future. For all participants in the political process, it is much more convenient to postpone the relevant clashes to the right occasion, for example, the electoral presidential campaign in 2015.

Also from the high-profile events of the year in the humanitarian sphere in Ukraine, it is worth noting the introduction in Lviv of their own, radically different from the general Ukrainian, textbooks on stories Of Ukraine, problems with the hire in Ukraine of the film "Match" directed by Andrei Malyukov about the "death match" with the participation of "Dynamo" (Kiev) during the Great Patriotic War, the conflict of Communist Party Deputy Yevgeny Tsarkov with nationalist forces associated with his statement on one of the TV channels "Few of the NKVD you, Bandera, shot," a march in Kiev in honor of the 70 anniversary of the establishment of the UPA, recognized as the most massive procession in the entire history of the independence of Ukraine. 1 January 2013 of the year in Ukraine celebrated the anniversary of the birth of OUN leader Stepan Bandera on a large scale. Marches, rallies and other actions for the birthday of the "leader of the Ukrainian nation" took place in Kiev, very massively in Galicia, also in Lugansk, Zaporozhye, Kharkov, Poltava, Odessa, Melitopol, Dneprodzerzhinsk, Kirovograd, Sumy, Zhytomyr and other cities of the country.

The main challenges are 2013 for Ukraine

1. Strengthening the confrontation of "family" Yanukovych with other oligarchs. Ukraine has already de facto launched a campaign to prepare for the presidential election-2015, in which the "family" is intensively accumulating financial and human resources. Naturally, this process is met with misunderstanding and resistance of the leading oligarchs of the country. The open war of the “family” against one of them is not excluded, or the fun completely traditional for Ukraine is the war of all against all.

2. Fascism of the Verkhovna Rada and the public life of the country. Having barely begun his work in the Verkhovna Rada, the representatives of Freedom are quite tough trying to impose their rules. In particular, the nationalists are trying to organize a boycott of the Russian language within the precincts of parliament, preventing Russian-speaking parliamentarians from speaking. The biggest public actions in 2012, the marches in honor of the 70 anniversary of the creation of the UPA and the birthday of Bandera, were also held by the nationalists. In the context of the popular version of political scientists that the government is playing along with “Svoboda”, so that Oleg Tyagnibok becomes Yanukovych’s main rival in the presidential election, one can only assume that the Ukrainian neo-fascists are still more radicalized. In this situation, the party and the team of Yanukovych will find it harder to play in “confronting” the brown threat and “respecting the balance of interests” in society, and by the 2015 year, Yanukovych risks coming not only with zero, but with antirating. And the prospect of repeating the fate of the Weimar Republic may be aggravated by spontaneous mass riots and the territorial collapse of Ukraine.

3. The end of "multi-vector" and the end of Ukraine. In the 2013 year, theoretically, an association agreement between Ukraine and the EU could be signed. Kyiv and Brussels also outlined the following events: a meeting of the Ukraine-EU Cooperation Council, a Ukraine-EU summit, an Eastern Partnership summit. The Prime Minister of Ukraine has already announced that he will personally coordinate the implementation of the plan for "European integration", and the activities in this direction should be "as substantive as possible, productive and responsible." On the other hand, the Russian ambassador to Ukraine, Mikhail Zurabov, at the end of December declared that the decision on cooperation in the Ukraine-CU direction should be taken in the next six months. Accordingly, in the 2013 year, Kiev will have to finally decide on the foreign policy choice and no matter how this decision is, half of the country will remain unhappy in any case (which will only aggravate the West-East Ukraine split line). And whether Kiev is ready to withstand the press of the external "losing" partner is also a big question. Thus, the end of "multi-vector" could be the end of Ukraine in its current form, but the continuation of this policy is fraught with an explosion from the inside. In this regard, the federalization of Ukraine - an idea whose banner in 2004 was Viktor Yanukovych himself and the Party of Regions - could formalize the process of the disintegration of Ukraine according to the softest possible scenario. However, it is obvious that Yanukovych and the Regionals will not decide on this step under any circumstances.

4. Growing socio-economic crisis. The global economic crisis and the corresponding decline in industrial production in Ukraine, the lack of lenders willing to help, the consequences of Euro-2012 and pre-election populist social policies, the gradual closure of the Customs Union markets and conflict with the WTO, the most serious debt obligations and heavy gas contracts are far from complete the list of factors emphasizing that in terms of the economy, Ukraine faces a very difficult year. The beginning of the year only confirms this - the New Year holidays were not over yet, when in the Lugansk region of Ukraine the rebellious miners occupied the office of the director of the enterprise in order to cancel the order on reorganization. "Where are you going to put tens of thousands of people who may be left without livelihood? Maybe you have already prepared a crematorium for us, and it remains to drive us to concentration camps?" - the miners are wondering. On the same day, an all-Ukrainian protest action of independent trade unions of railway workers of Ukraine started in Kharkov. Experts say bluntly that in 2013, a social explosion may occur in the east of Ukraine, despite the fact that in the west of the country the situation is not at all bright.
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  1. fenix57
    fenix57 16 January 2013 07: 36
    +5
    "... official Kiev stood on the position that it does not want to choose between the Customs Union and the creation of an FTA with the EU ..." - don't know what to do - take a step forward : to the side Customs Union [/ i] Only in this direction is salvation. hi
    1. Vladimirets
      Vladimirets 16 January 2013 08: 07
      +6
      Quote: fenix57
      Only in this direction is salvation.

      Further only together. Nobody alone with joyful banners awaits us anywhere, we must win a place in the sun. Bendera in the furnace, the brothers must live as one family.
      1. "Delete"
        "Delete" 16 January 2013 11: 00
        0
        I doubt that one family can be driven by blackmail methods, which Putin does. Why in the HARDWARE Ukraine is driven practically by kicks, and. for example, Puerto Rico themselves wanted to become part of the United States ?!
        1. Vladimirets
          Vladimirets 16 January 2013 11: 46
          +3
          Quote: Sil
          Why in the HARDWARE Ukraine is driven practically by kicks, and. for example, Puerto Rico themselves wanted to become part of the United States ?!

          Because the one who has something to lose, and has something to offer, thinks and weighs all the pros and cons. And Puerto Rico, even in the United States, at least to unite with South Africa, do not care, all the same, except for cowards and two coconut trees, there is no nichrome.
          PS If only thoughts would not drag out ...
          1. "Delete"
            "Delete" 16 January 2013 11: 55
            -7
            The point is not that there is nothing besides palm trees, but that the United States can give an impetus to development and, roughly speaking, the "American dream", while the CU is the gradual absorption of Ukrainian assets by Russian oligarchs, as it was in Belarus. I will quote my post below: the CU is the economy of one owner - Russia and the Ukrainian oligarchs will benefit from joining the CU only at first, when they may benefit from expanding access to the markets of the CIS countries, but sooner or later they will begin to lose their positions due to unequal competition with Russian state monopolies. Also, Russia has 57 percent of the votes in the CU, and if Ukraine joins it, then Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan will always be in the majority and will be able to impose on Kiev decisions that are beneficial to them. And thirdly, because the CU is mainly a raw material model of the economy, which speaks for itself. So, no matter how funny it sounds, the European Union is really more profitable for Ukraine than the CU and Putin understands this. He understands that if given a free choice, he will be in favor of Europe, therefore they drive Ukraine with blackmail and threats. economic wars. like a recent cheesy, etc. Well, in fact, the CU is practically a loss of sovereignty.
            1. El13
              El13 16 January 2013 19: 32
              0
              The whole "tragedy" is that Ukraine has no chance of retaining its sovereignty, so it will be swallowed up by "either those or these" ... the people care who buys their factories, the main thing is that they work, but with this already definitely looks more attractive ...
              But ... after reading the article, it wasn’t fun at heart ... Ukraine will not join the CU, it will fall apart ...
        2. Egoza
          Egoza 16 January 2013 11: 54
          17
          Quote: Sil
          I doubt that one family can be driven by blackmail methods,

          Why blackmail? Capital however! The options are clearly given - either-or, choose. In a store or at a bazaar, you will demand from the seller: "Cut this piece for me, discard the bone, and now cut it off from the second piece ..." How long will the seller poke with you? He will send it to hell, or you will go looking for someone who will perform all the tricks. Go, go, and go again. You will go around the whole bazaar, find it, buy it, come home, and see that this kind and helpful seller instead of meat slipped you rotten veins.
          You may not believe it, but even in the villages they accepted the "cheese war" with approval. thanks to her, we really began to put the correct labeling, and OUR people began to understand what cheese is and what is a cheese product. By the way, Ukraine is almost in the first place among importers of palm oil. And where does it all go? repeat
          1. Yoshkin Kot
            Yoshkin Kot 16 January 2013 15: 50
            0
            what are "our peoples"? what brotherhood? the right kidney can be the brother of the left? They are parts of the same organism!
  2. smel
    smel 16 January 2013 08: 16
    +6
    I really want our peoples to live together. A centuries-old history confirms the feasibility of a joint economy, politics, culture. However, I do not want to step on the same rake again. The best guarantee that we will not be thrown again is a fair trial of those with I sawed the country under the name of the USSR with pleasure and in my own interests. Because there are the results of the famous referendum, sawflies are almost all in place. There is only the will of the people, apparently.
  3. Warrawar
    Warrawar 16 January 2013 08: 48
    +1
    The most likely scenario in this country is the rise of Nazis to power.
    Moreover, the change of power is likely to happen before 2015, as in Ukraine the economy will collapse in 13-14 and unrest will begin.
    1. Egoza
      Egoza 16 January 2013 11: 45
      12
      Quote: Warrawar
      The most likely scenario in this country is the rise to power of the Nazis.

      The most correct scenario is the split of Ukraine, its fragmentation in general. And then no screams about "territorial integrity" will be on the agenda at all. Regions at the local level will decide for themselves which state they want to live in. And there will remain from Ukraine "Great samostiina dirka" - as the great Yaroslav Galan wrote. He very accurately described the nationalists, their aspirations, and foresaw the results. For which Bandera killed him. Of course, now they don't remember him, but it would be worth rereading to our deputies.
    2. MG42
      MG42 16 January 2013 15: 25
      +4
      Quote: Warrawar
      The most likely scenario in this country is the rise of Nazis to power.

      What did you want to express the party of the swamp and so in the Verkhovna Rada is represented = 35 out of 450 deputies of the weather do not make only a lot of noise and dust. Tyagnibok = President of Ukraine? laughing So then there will really be a collapse, the autonomy of Crimea to Russia will be the first to break away, then the East.
      Quote: Warrawar
      since in Ukraine the economy will collapse in 13-14 and unrest will begin.

      As long as the state keeps its obligations to state employees and pensioners without raising tariffs = this will not happen. Default well, it was predicted more than once = until the NBU completely burns up the reserves. Russia has already gone through a default in 1998 (the economy has not collapsed) = there has never been one in the history of Ukraine. <Holodomor> don't worry.
  4. escapes
    escapes 16 January 2013 10: 35
    +8
    Come on, it remains to wait a bit, they themselves will fall apart))) east to us, and let Bendera copulate with the geyropa)))
    1. alexng
      alexng 16 January 2013 15: 47
      +3
      Duc, the funniest thing about this is that because of the idiocy of the Westerners, the Gay Europeans do not want to accept Ukraine. Nationalism is generally not recognized in Europe and is considered a very dangerous thing. And they need one more headache. So the Ukrainian nationalists are not needed by non-gay Europeans, let alone "mockals". The way out, no matter how regrettable it may seem, is only the separation of western Ukraine from the rest of the country, and only then will shifts in the "independent" towards economic recovery begin. And in the form that Ukraine is now, no one needs it, neither the West nor the East.
      1. El13
        El13 16 January 2013 19: 40
        +2
        I have a feeling that our top leadership let go and waved his hand to Ukraine, like choose yourself, sort it out, we don’t count on you anymore ... This is what the South Stream, which seemed to be a bluff, started up to the last, Putin’s press conference , where he made it clear that he would not haggle more - either Ukraine is submitting an application to the CU, which means it accepts everything unconditionally, or stand at the threshold.
    2. kasha
      kasha 16 January 2013 15: 48
      +5
      Hey, have you forgotten Odessa? WE ARE YOU GUYS !!
  5. Ragnarek
    Ragnarek 16 January 2013 10: 46
    +6
    it feels like Ukraine will still split into East and West
  6. Akim
    Akim 16 January 2013 11: 04
    +3
    The most important event is IT! And everything else is political bullshit


    1. MG42
      MG42 16 January 2013 15: 38
      +8
      Here is Euro 2012 and will burp Ukraine = you are aware that Ukraine is again asking the IMF for 15 billion. dollars on credit = debts need to be serviced = and the IMF can just lead to a confident road to default. [right] [/ right] hi The Hyundai trains have been handled in full, the Euro 2012 objects are empty hotels airport terminals >>>> Greece also had an Olympiad = and now the expectation of default, well, Greece is saved by Germany and France with their money and writing off 100 billion euros, and who will pull out Ukraine out of debt? The rescue of drowning people is the work of the drowning people >>>
      1. Akim
        Akim 16 January 2013 15: 58
        +2
        MG42,
        You know, my New Year holidays also "sucked" all the money. But for a long time there will be something to remember (well, there are some memory gaps - but there is also a video, well that is not on YouTube). And I do not regret these expenses. Don't start counting money after the wedding as the groom. Did the wedding pay off or not?
        1. MG42
          MG42 16 January 2013 16: 03
          +4
          Fun video about Euro 2012 laughing
          Tow Hyundai Rotem (# 9) Ukraine Winter December 2012

          as they say it was smooth on paper but forgot about the ravines = Korean technology in Ukraine does not plow. rails, and in the cold in general a full kirdyk!
          1. Akim
            Akim 16 January 2013 20: 10
            +2
            MG42,
            It is necessary to support the domestic manufacturer !!!!
            1. MG42
              MG42 17 January 2013 18: 51
              +2
              Quote: Akim
              MG42,
              It is necessary to support the domestic manufacturer !!!!

              Good video = Monsieur Kolesnikov turned a grand scam. One can only guess about the size of the rollback on Hyundai, as well as on Boyko towers there the amount is less or less known.
  7. Tektor
    Tektor 16 January 2013 11: 34
    -3
    I do not understand why Ukrainians do not understand the obvious: Ukraine does not shine any EU membership in Ukraine. All kinds of partnerships and other nonsense have a single goal - to push as far as possible the only possible entry into the Customs Union to preserve peace in Ukraine. The tactics of the europeis are simple: if Ukraine gets the vehicle, then let it go there as weak as possible, and even better - in a state of chaos. So then on fuya, then we need, in a state of chaos, this country crazy on national soil? ..
    1. "Delete"
      "Delete" 16 January 2013 11: 43
      +2
      If they throw off the Gopnik Yanukovych and his Caudle, then very much even shines. And they don’t want to join the CU, firstly because of such a contemptuous attitude: "on ukrii", and secondly, because the CU is the economy of one owner - Russia and the Ukrainian oligarchs will benefit from joining the CU only at first, when they can They may benefit from expanding access to the markets of the CIS countries, but sooner or later they will begin to lose their positions due to unequal competition with Russian state monopolies. Also, Russia has 57 percent of the votes in the CU, and if Ukraine joins it, then Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan will always be in the majority and will be able to impose on Kiev decisions that are beneficial to them. And thirdly, because the CU is mainly a raw material model of the economy, which speaks for itself.
      1. Egoza
        Egoza 16 January 2013 12: 01
        +5
        Quote: Sil
        sooner or later they will begin to lose their positions due to unequal competition

        begin to lose ground because of their greed. To be a worthy competitor you need to produce QUALITY goods. And this - what a horror - you need to spend your money on the modernization of production, on high-quality raw materials, and even workers can demand a decent salary in practice, and not on paper. Now many are afraid of losing jobs, and with a vehicle, the choice of hard workers will be much greater. Do oligarchs need it?
      2. Tektor
        Tektor 16 January 2013 12: 09
        0
        Let the "household of one owner" remain on your conscience. International associations, especially prosperous ones, are created on the basis of the RULES. If these rules are beneficial to the countries that are members of the association, then the association will flourish ... No more and no less ...
      3. Warrawar
        Warrawar 16 January 2013 13: 01
        -6
        Quote: Sil
        And in the TS they do not want, firstly because of such a contemptuous attitude: "on ukrii",

        To "ukrii" such an attitude, because such is the attitude of "ukrii" to Russia and the Russians.
        1. gladiatorakz
          gladiatorakz 16 January 2013 13: 24
          +6
          Quote: Warrawar
          To "ukrii" such an attitude, because such is the attitude of "ukrii" to Russia and the Russians.

          Well I made a remark to you in another thread, for what I called Russia "rashka". Now I see you have a new manie? Bark at Ukraine.
          Because of such "close-minded" pseudo-patriots, most of the conflicts occur. Instead of friendship.
          1. Warrawar
            Warrawar 16 January 2013 13: 34
            -1
            No, you are clearly confused.
            1. Yoshkin Kot
              Yoshkin Kot 16 January 2013 16: 06
              -3
              he didn’t beguile, he lied by the habit of Bebik’s habit
              1. gladiatorakz
                gladiatorakz 16 January 2013 19: 16
                +3
                Quote: Yoshkin Cat
                he didn’t beguile, he lied by the habit of Bebik’s habit

                You do not confuse him with me. fool
                1. Yoshkin Kot
                  Yoshkin Kot 16 January 2013 20: 08
                  -1
                  I don’t confuse, secluded, they only tell the truth, like they taught the Egyptians how to build pyramids laughing
                  1. gladiatorakz
                    gladiatorakz 16 January 2013 20: 25
                    +3
                    Quote: Yoshkin Cat
                    I don’t confuse, secluded, they only tell the truth, like they taught the Egyptians how to build pyramids

                    I did not immediately understand your anger towards the Ukrainians and Ukraine. At first I thought maybe Ukrainians were beating at school. The complexes are compensated by the Internet. But then I saw - you are the cat Yossi! Well, for sure! Jews have always helped Russia and Ukraine "befriend". And everything fell into place. laughing
        2. Tektor
          Tektor 16 January 2013 14: 25
          0
          As for "ukri", they called themselves that: ukrspetsexport, ukr-gas, ukr-energo, ukrsibbank ... They almost all start with ukr-
          For those who do not understand: I am also against the entry of Ukraine into the customs union. After all, the essence of this union is that the total surplus of the trade balance is shared among all members of the CU. For example, in 2012, the surplus of this balance in the Russian Federation will be more than $ 200 yards. In accordance with the rules of the Customs Union, Belarus will receive more than $ 12 yards from them and Kazakhstan a little less or more (I don’t remember). Similarly with Kazakhstan and Belarus - they share with the other members of the CU their surpluses, if any, of the trade balance. We share with the members of the CU our income, for example, for gas sold. The question is, what is the trade surplus in Ukraine? That is, it is not, but there is a deficit of ~ $ 17 yards. Draw your own conclusions.
          1. mamba
            mamba 16 January 2013 15: 14
            +3
            Quote: Tektor
            As for "ukri", they called themselves that: ukrspetsexport, ukr-gas, ukr-energo, ukrsibbank ... They almost all start with ukr-

            In times of socialist deficit, there was such a joke. Odessa reproaches the Muscovite:
            - It’s good for you, Muscovites: you have everything. The names of your organizations alone speak of this: Mosryba, Mosmyaso, Mosmolok. And here in Odessa: oderyba, odemyaso, oemoloko. I'm not talking about our neighbors Kherson! recourse
      4. Yoshkin Kot
        Yoshkin Kot 16 January 2013 15: 52
        -4
        of course, ukriya is a creation of the kaganovichs, grushevsky and other small-town "ukrointsy" not for nothing the coolest're coming out-fascist tyagnibok-frotman, but yatsenyuk is spinning nearby
    2. Egoza
      Egoza 16 January 2013 11: 57
      +9
      Quote: Tektor
      why Ukrainians do not understand the obvious: no EU membership Ukraine shines.

      They understand, but really want to. Because the oligarchs in the West have "in store" in their piggy bank. again, no visas will be required. If something happens, he picked up the family and rushed to the west. And from there, oh, how difficult it is to scratch out a thief, and his money stolen from the people - even more so
      1. gladiatorakz
        gladiatorakz 16 January 2013 12: 16
        -3
        Quote: Egoza
        They understand, but really want to. Because the oligarchs in the West have "in store" in their piggy bank. again, no visas will be required. If something happens, he picked up the family and rushed to the west. And from there, oh, how difficult it is to scratch out a thief, and his money stolen from the people - even more so

        Is it easier to scratch a thief from Russia? Buckeye is still there? Yes, and invites Timothy Putin.
        Look in both directions. I am for Unification with TS 3 + 1. But ridiculous arguments and forecasts only push people away from this idea.
        1. El13
          El13 16 January 2013 19: 59
          +1
          I think any 3 + 1 is over ... either 4 or 3 as of now ...
    3. gladiatorakz
      gladiatorakz 16 January 2013 12: 18
      +2
      Quote: Sil
      I do not understand why in Ukraine they do not understand the obvious:

      Read books. The case is running, but suddenly it will help? Try not to give up .... request
    4. OSTAP BENDER
      OSTAP BENDER 16 January 2013 14: 30
      +5
      Quote: Tektor
      I do not understand why Ukrainians do not understand the obvious: Ukraine does not shine any EU membership in Ukraine.

      All the Ukrainian powers that be, and the oligarchs, keep their money in Western banks and Western currency, that is, they are dependent on the West, and they carry out all the instructions of Brussels and the Fashington Regional Committee. They themselves understand that they are pushing the people with bullshit, but they cannot do anything, they do not want to, and they will not do anything! They tremble for their money, chairs and position! The elite of Ukraine is the loyal servants of the IMF and other crap scum! In Ukraine, nothing belongs to Ukraine! When another politician starts pushing nonsense called "Independent Ukraine" - it becomes funny!
      1. MG42
        MG42 16 January 2013 15: 57
        +4
        I completely agree +. I’ll just add that Ukraine is a very corrupt country. Who faced Ukrainian. knows justice. Money and only money, whoever has more of them, is right. The EU will not accept such corruption.
        Quote: OSTAP BENDER
        All Ukrainian powers that be, and the oligarchs, keep money in Western banks and Western currency

        Those who hold power also take their families abroad, in which case it’s easy to leave this state. The only Ukrainian politician oligarch Lazarenko who suffered for corruption there = the amers closed him and confiscated the money, though he was allegedly recently released from prison.
    5. MG42
      MG42 16 January 2013 15: 43
      +3
      Quote: Tektor
      All kinds of partnerships and other nonsense have a single goal - to push as far as possible the only possible entry into the Customs Union to preserve peace in Ukraine.

      If you include Ukrainian television there is practically no position of those who support joining the CU, on the contrary there is active propaganda against the CU. hi
  8. komsomolets
    komsomolets 16 January 2013 12: 44
    +9
    Ukraine has never existed in its current borders. With our top in this form, we will not last long, we will simply be torn apart by stronger neighbors. There are no miracles, either you stuff your pocket or the pocket of your country.
    1. gladiatorakz
      gladiatorakz 16 January 2013 12: 55
      0
      Quote: komsomolets
      Ukraine has never existed in its current borders. With our top in this form, we will not last long, we will simply be torn apart by stronger neighbors. There are no miracles, either you stuff your pocket or the pocket of your country.


      Which country has always existed within its borders? Fiji? Togo? Cuba? and even that is very doubtful.
    2. Vladimirets
      Vladimirets 16 January 2013 12: 59
      +2
      Quote: komsomolets
      Ukraine in its current borders has never existed.

      I will say more: Ukraine in modern history as a state never existed.
      1. Warrawar
        Warrawar 16 January 2013 13: 03
        +4
        And I will say even more, Ukraine in this form did not exist, not only in "modern" history. Ukraine has never existed in history.
        1. gladiatorakz
          gladiatorakz 16 January 2013 13: 37
          -3
          Quote: Warrawar
          And I will say even more

          Yeah. No one else will tell you. Probably your language is a couple of sizes larger! wink It is necessary for doctors to find out how your linguistics are correctly called ...
      2. Твtvjag
        Твtvjag 16 January 2013 13: 13
        -5
        And I will also say more - for another ten years of such a policy in Russia and such a state as Russia will not exist, Ukraine is very lucky in this regard - as the Russians (it is the Russians and not the Russians, there are practically no real Russians here) do not repeat as the mantra of Ukraine no ... Ukraine did not exist .... Ukraine will not be "- our state still lives, unlike the Russian Federation, we have a more homogeneous composition in the national, religious and cultural terms, and at the expense of" Freedom "- you already have Zhirinovsky about 20 years in parliament, and I will tell you even worse fascist than ours.
        1. klimpopov
          klimpopov 16 January 2013 13: 42
          +8
          Do not tell)) Zhirinovsky has been a clown for 20 years, he loves to PR, he eats the audience and so on. Does someone take it seriously? Ha ha ha, and they vote for him only as a joke, because there’s no one else for him, well, it’s cool when there is one in parliament))). So, at the expense of Zhirinovsky, although each creature was there in pairs, he took his place and sits firmly on it, and he will not jump higher and will not fly lower, because he does not go beyond what is allowed.
          Second question. What are "real Russians"? It would be very interesting to know your point of view.
          Well, the third. I understand that your state lives, I wish your country prosperity from the bottom of my heart!

          All the problems of Russia, these are problems inherent in any federal entity no less (there are others, but in matters of integrity this is so), especially if they are heated from outside, therefore any entity that has the structure and principles of federation is possible with a strong center with mutually beneficial conditions for all, hence not homogeneity. And if you read the history, even if it was written in our country even in the West (practically the same thing), you will understand that such an education as Russia or the Russian Empire or the USSR in its various epostases exists much longer than you would like. At the same time, the borders did not change especially in Russia. Although, again from history, any empire tends to "breathe", that is, the borders periodically increase or decrease. At the same time, Russia was incomparably more lucky, Russia has never had such a number of colonies that the Western empires had, all territories adjoined and "adhered" to each other, the spheres of influence are different. And therefore, what we now have with a heterogeneous composition and all those problems that exist is incomparably more stable (no matter how anyone would like to prove the opposite) than, for example, those United States (they even have no uniqueness in the name of their state, think about it "United States of America "- that is, just the name of the territory and that's it).
          Personally, my opinion is that I tried to fit into one comment. Thoughtful criticism is welcome.
          1. mamba
            mamba 16 January 2013 15: 41
            +1
            Quote: klimpopov
            Zhirinovsky has been a clown for 20 years, he loves to PR, he ebots the audience and vote for him only as a joke, he took his place and sits firmly on him, because he does not go beyond what is allowed.

            They vote for him not for fun, but in protest, with a fig in his pocket. But actually, he often says interesting and useful things that even political scientists keep quiet about. This helps get rid of information blinkers. wink
            Quote: klimpopov
            any formation with the structure and principles of federation is possible with a strong center with mutually beneficial conditions for all

            Quite true. This is why all federations, empires and even melting pots inevitably fall apart when the economy collapses. The amazing vitality of Russia is explained only by the fact that we, Russians, are pathologically tolerant and ready for the sake of the unity of the state to give the last to our smaller brothers. But they too often perceive it as weakness. But when they begin to try our strength, then they are very sorry ... am
            1. klimpopov
              klimpopov 16 January 2013 16: 38
              +2
              Well, everyone understood about Zhirinovsky.
              The amazing survivability of Russia can only be explained by the fact that we Russians are pathologically tolerant and ready to give the latter to our smaller brothers for the sake of the unity of the state.

              Fair! And we also have a national idea - Russia.
              1. El13
                El13 16 January 2013 20: 08
                0
                Beautifully told about the "breath" of the empire ...
                1. klimpopov
                  klimpopov 16 January 2013 21: 05
                  +1
                  Generally on this topic you need to write an article. And then everything is somehow fragmented. And there are a lot of considerations about this ...
        2. Warrawar
          Warrawar 16 January 2013 14: 05
          +2
          Quote: Ettwag
          unlike the Russian Federation, we have a more homogeneous composition in the national, religious and cultural terms

          The national composition of Russia is more homogeneous than Ukraine. In Russia, 81% of Russians.
        3. Yoshkin Kot
          Yoshkin Kot 16 January 2013 15: 55
          0
          ha-ha-ha-ha, do you have a caliper? measure the size of the skull? and? probably from the Frottmanites?
          1. Warrawar
            Warrawar 16 January 2013 20: 38
            0
            And I'm not going to measure - these are facts. But I have nothing against 20% of the "non-Russian" population. In Russia, everyone is equal.
      3. gladiatorakz
        gladiatorakz 16 January 2013 13: 27
        -4
        Quote: Vladimirets
        I will say more: Ukraine in modern history as a state never existed.

        Are you a historian? Modern? Or timely? laughing
        And the Pereyaslovskaya Rada (On the reunification of Ukraine and Russia) was written in Zimbab?
        1. Warrawar
          Warrawar 16 January 2013 14: 11
          +6
          Quote: gladiatorakz
          Are you a historian? Modern? Or timely?
          And the Pereyaslovskaya Rada (On the reunification of Ukraine and Russia) was written in Zimbab?

          The Pereyaslav Rada was not written about the reunification of Russia and Ukraine. She wrote about the accession of Little Russia to Russia. Here is the petition of Khmelnitsky to the Russian Tsar

          Hetman had a secret Rada with the Colonels, and with the Judges, and with the Troops Yasauly, - and the Colonels ..., and the Judges, and Yasauly under the Sovereign bowed their high hands.
          And according to the secret Rada, which Getman had had with his Colonels in the morning the same day, at the second hour of the day they were beaten into the drum, from the hour of time, at the meeting of the whole people, to give away advice on a case that wants to be completed.
          And how a great many different ranks of people gathered, they made a long circle about Getman and about Colonels, and then Getman himself came out under the bunkuk, and with him Judge and Yasauly, the clerk and all the Colonels, and became Getman in the middle of the circle, and Yasaul Voiskova ordered everyone to be silent; then, as they were silent, Getman began to speak to all the people to say:
          Panov Colonels, Yasauly, Sotniki and all the army of Zaporizhzhya, and all the Orthodox Christians! it is known to all of you how God freed us from the hands of enemies who are persecuting the Church of God and embittering all of Christianity in our Eastern Orthodoxy, that we have been living without the Emperor for six years in our
          land in constant warfare and bloodshed with persecutors and our enemies, who want to uproot the Church of God, so that the name Ruske will not be remembered in our land, which has already bothered us all, and we see that we cannot live without the Tsar; for this they have now removed the Rada, which is manifest to the whole people, so that the Sovereign of four whom you want will naturally be with us; the first Tsar is Turks, who many times through his ambassadors called us to his region; second Crimean Khan; the third King of Poland, who will himself want to, and now he can accept us in the same kindness; the fourth is the Russian Orthodox Great of the Sovereign, Tsar and Grand Duke Alexei Mikhailovich, of all Russia the Eastern Autocrat, whom we have been asking for our endless prayers for six years; choose whom you want. King of Tours is a Busurman; all of you know how our brethren, Orthodoxy Christians, Greeks endure misfortune, and in what essence from godless oppression; Krimskoy Khan is also a Busurman, whom we, out of necessity and in friendship, accepted, what unbearable troubles I received! What captivity, what merciless shedding of Christian blood from Polish oppression of oppression, will not tell you to tell anyone; you yourself all know that it is better to be a Jew and a dog than a Christian, our brother, to be revered. And the Orthodox Christian Great Sovereign, the Tsar of the East, is with us the same piety of the Greek law, the same confession, the only body of the church is the Orthodoxy of Great Russia, the head of the property of Jesus Christ.
          That Great Sovereign, the Tsar of Christianity, taking pity on the unbearable bitterness of the Orthodox Church in our small Russia, not despising our six-year-old prayers of unceasing, now has merciful his Tsar’s heart and inclined us, deigned to send his great neighbors to us with the Tsar’s mercy, whom he has we will love with zeal, except for His Tsarist high hand of the most merciful shelter which is not obscure; and there will be someone who does not agree with us now, wherever he wants, a free road. To these words, the whole people cried out: we are free under the Tsar of the East, the Orthodox, with a strong hand in our pious faith, die, rather than not the hater of Christ, trash, wealth.
          Then Colonel Preyaslovsky Teteria, walking in a circle on all sides, asked: do you all so deign to be the whole nation: all are unanimous;
          Then the Hetman prayed: Wake up so that the Lord our God will strengthen under His Royal strong hand; and the people all cried out unanimously in it: God! affirm, God! Strengthen, so that all may be one forever.

          Find here at least one mention of the word Ukraine.
          1. Warrawar
            Warrawar 16 January 2013 14: 22
            -1
            And Ukraine is the essence of an anti-Russian hostile state formation, which has a very distant relationship to the fraternal "Little Russia" of the model of the times of the "Pereyaslav Rada".
            In general, read, enlighten

            http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9F%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B5%D1%8F%D1%81%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0


            %B2%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%8F_%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B0

            http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9F%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B5%D1%8F%D1%81%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0


            %B2%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%B9_%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%80#.D0.9F.D1


            .80.D0.B8.D1.81.D1.8F.D0.B3.D0.B0_.D0.A0.D1.83.D1.81.D1.81.D0.BA.D0.BE.D0.BC.D1.


            83_.D0.93.D0.BE.D1.81.D1.83.D0.B4.D0.B0.D1.80.D1.8E

            http://demotivatorz.ru/uploads/posts/2010-10/ukraina_4998_demotivatorz.ru.jpg
            1. Warrawar
              Warrawar 16 January 2013 14: 49
              +2
              I personally do not care about Ukraine at all, it is an independent country and it is free to do anything.
              But it is very disappointing when the ungrateful Ukrainians begin to vilify Russia and the Russians. Especially their desire to attribute the Russians to Asians and, in general, to make them lower-class people and thereby take away the Slavic identity. Read any Internet resource on which at least in passing Ukraine or Russia is mentioned.
              1. gladiatorakz
                gladiatorakz 16 January 2013 19: 44
                0
                Quote: Warrawar
                I personally do not care about Ukraine at all, it is an independent country and it is free to do anything.

                Bugaaga. Discussed with all his might, and then indifferent? But progress on the face: learned to write Ukraine (and not ukriya), Russia (and not Raska) - it can also even out. AND?
            2. gladiatorakz
              gladiatorakz 16 January 2013 19: 29
              0
              Quote: Warrawar

              And Ukraine is the essence of an anti-Russian hostile state formation

              I am a supporter of Russia with your rhetoric, I hope for one thing, that Russia is not homogeneous. There were still smart people. Not everything is so miserable.

              Quote: Warrawar
              In general, read, enlighten

              I read three articles already an expert? Strong. But not enough. Read more. And then think! (maybe then)
        2. washi
          washi 16 January 2013 14: 27
          -1
          There was the outskirts of the states: Poland, Russia and the Ottoman Empire. On this border territory there lived Polish claps and bandits, under the cry of "Zaporozhians" (the Zaporozhians were mowing under the Orthodox, nevertheless they were sold to Catholics and Muslims). ) boyars who escaped from court
        3. Yoshkin Kot
          Yoshkin Kot 16 January 2013 15: 59
          -3
          and yet there was no ukroiny!
  9. gladiatorakz
    gladiatorakz 16 January 2013 12: 54
    0
    Which country has always existed within its borders? Fiji? Togo? Cuba? and even that is very doubtful.
  10. mamba
    mamba 16 January 2013 13: 27
    +2
    The European Parliament in December called on the democratic parties in the Verkhovna Rada not to unite, support or form alliances with Svoboda, since this political force adheres to "racist, anti-Semitic and xenophobic views that contradict fundamental European values ​​and principles."
    That is why for some reason these values ​​and principles do not contradict the creeps of the Baltic fascists and the oppression of the Russian-speaking population there. And here is the answer of the Ukrainian opposition:
    the EP resolution will apparently be ignored. Perverts sit in the European Parliament and are engaged in "soviet propaganda."
    The opposition is ready to unite even with the devil horned, if only to gain strength.
  11. Pedro
    Pedro 16 January 2013 14: 17
    +3
    All of us are finished.
    1. taseka
      taseka 16 January 2013 14: 29
      0
      Pedro - who's on the screen saver?
      1. komsomolets
        komsomolets 16 January 2013 16: 35
        +1
        Pedro himself probably
  12. washi
    washi 16 January 2013 14: 18
    +1
    Again the outskirts are rioting. In "Muscovy" there was a bunch of outskirts. Only one riots.
  13. mamba
    mamba 16 January 2013 14: 31
    +1
    At the moment, China is actively trying to protect itself from a possible food crisis and is striving to make Ukraine its breadbasket.
    This is how much rice should Ukraine produce in order for China to feel this? And he himself actively exports rice.
    In communist times, China turned to the USSR for rice supplies. Then we did not have it in such quantities, and the Chinese categorically refused to supply wheat and, especially, barley and rye.
    The supply of meat from Ukraine to China is also very doubtful in the current competition in the world. The same goes for dairy products. And there’s nothing to say about sugar.
    The US actually accused Ukraine of trying to undermine the foundations of the WTO, noting that the actions proposed by Ukraine will have serious systemic consequences, and everyone is very concerned about the precedent that may result.
    The dream of ukro-patriots came true. And after that, the vehicle is still unattractive for Ukraine?
    1. dedroid71
      dedroid71 16 January 2013 19: 39
      +2
      Greetings, dear Mamba. You forgot to mention a certain (literally from the article): "a program to replace natural gas with Ukrainian coal." Why does the whole world not export this very coal? So any competent power engineer will tell you that this is not that unprofitable, but very unprofitable. Thermal coal can still be burned at thermal power plants near the mining site. And only coking is exported, and even then not of any quality.
      Naturally, we are talking about coal. T.N. no one needs brown coal at all
  14. taseka
    taseka 16 January 2013 14: 34
    +2
    On the whole and in general, but not in its entirety, I agree with the author, only here is how the people of Ukraine got all these politicians and unrest - the simple people are tired!
  15. atos_kin
    atos_kin 16 January 2013 14: 53
    +1
    Given that Ukraine is constantly affected by three differently directed, but comparable in terms of power, vectors in terms of economic content (EU-Middle East-Russian Federation), three in religion (Catholicism-Islam-Orthodoxy), I’m afraid that the collapse (section) of Ukraine on parts can lead to a big redivision of the whole world.
    1. El13
      El13 16 January 2013 20: 18
      +1
      I think that the only thing that can happen with the assistance of Ukraine is the exponential strengthening of one pole of the world - Russia, only by joining the Customs Union, everything else will not affect the world in any way. This is what the West does not want, this is what Hill Clinton is talking about when he says "we will prevent or at least postpone the moment of Sovietization", he is already openly speaking, and Yanukovych still hopes that he will be accepted into the EU ... so big, but in fairy tales believes, or maybe not, then he is a temporary worker - enough for his life, and then the grass will not grow.
  16. mamba
    mamba 16 January 2013 14: 54
    +1
    The Ukrainian authorities are true to their wagging policies. If it doesn’t work out, then I didn’t really want to ... On the one hand, the IMF does not suit the conditions for granting loans and then: there is enough financial resources in the world without the IMF, and on the other hand: IMF representative oversees the process of preparing the state budget. Well, tricks! wink
  17. afire
    afire 16 January 2013 14: 59
    +2
    even if this happens, Ukrainians are ordinary people, let them come to visit us, and only then, in peace, create from scratch Ukraine, plundered and plucked, as we were not so long ago. The Slavs are only strong together, and these Polish freaks, fascists, pro-Westerners and the entire fifth column drive the fuck in 45m. well, by god
    1. Yoshkin Kot
      Yoshkin Kot 16 January 2013 16: 03
      -1
      That's just ukrointsy in Russia are not needed! Ibro Ukrainians always wide and always Bandera! only some have a latent stage, others open! but the Russians, Little Russians, welcome!
  18. Andof odessa
    Andof odessa 16 January 2013 15: 34
    +3
    The issue of the possible collapse of Ukraine did not take into account several points. 1 rather, we will not recall the Weimar Republic but Czechoslovakia immediately after the Munich conspiracy to Poland Transcarpathian territories, Crimea, Turks. Serpentine of Romania, Donbass of Russia, Chernobyl zone of Belarus wink .
    2 will break up into 4 parts West with the center, East, Crimea, and South.
    There is no economically significant difference in the issue of joining the EU or the Customs Union for Ukraine. The EU was pulling us for the reason that they needed our market and did not take Russia out of the control of the GPS, because they didn’t have enough money to please them with credit as the rest of Eastern and Southern Europe, and now there’s already been a market, and so we opened I can not. and we destroyed the competitive industry ourselves without any help. TS (Putin and Co.) wants to get what remains after the USSR and 20 years of intensive landfill and which is expensive to rebuild in Russia. GTS Aircraft building with Rocket building + Nikolaev shipyards and Crimea, and that is not necessary, even Russian plants are not fully loaded and money will again settle inside 2 garden rings. both directions prove one Ukraine is unable to be an independent state, which is very painful for our national pride.
    1. Vladimirets
      Vladimirets 16 January 2013 16: 47
      +3
      Quote: AndofOdessa
      Crimea Turkam

      Fuck them, not the Crimea.
    2. washi
      washi 2 February 2013 20: 43
      0
      How sad it is. Fight further for independence, and somehow we will live without you
  19. Apollo
    Apollo 16 January 2013 16: 52
    +4
    Political scientist: Ukraine got its "Serdyukov"

    KIEV, January 16. The new Ukrainian defense minister, Pavel Lebedev, resembles his Russian counterpart, Anatoly Serdyukov. Ukrainian political scientist Viktor Nebozhenko told a Rosbalt correspondent about this.
    According to him, usually the army reform is carried out by the minister who initiated it. "The cancellation of the draft is the thing that is not done" right off the bat. "And here the cancellation of the draft is announced by a person quite far from the Ministry of Defense - probably, at the same time, a good accountant and businessman. A kind of" Serdyukov phenomenon " army. And we will have the same, "- the expert believes.
    According to the political scientist, it is extremely difficult to refuse the draft. "Only sufficiently wealthy countries allow themselves to immediately switch to a contract army - more often mixed systems operate. In addition, conscripts are simply cheaper - contract soldiers require normal financial conditions, which simply cannot be obtained from. All this will only lead to a reduction in the army and create a disproportion in relation to police units of Ukraine. And this is already unpleasant, because a normal state is a low level of police presence, "concluded Nebozhenko.
    We will remind, earlier the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Pavel Lebedev said that in 2013 the call for urgent military service will be suspended with the simultaneous transition to manning the army exclusively by contract.
    Read more: http://www.rosbalt.ru/ukraina/2013/01/16/1082076.html
    1. Warrawar
      Warrawar 16 January 2013 17: 47
      +2
      The case of "effective managers" in the Ministry of Defense lives on!
      1. Vespasian
        Vespasian 16 January 2013 19: 39
        0
        And what leaders of "Oboronservis" can be found there wink
      2. El13
        El13 16 January 2013 20: 24
        +1
        Ukraine at this stage can afford to be left without an army at all. I would have done so, I would have transformed it into the Ministry of Emergencies or into something else.
  20. komsomolets
    komsomolets 16 January 2013 20: 21
    0
    If you want to predict the future of Ukraine. This is the fate of the poor Mexico, thoroughly corrupt, redistributed by mafia clans along and across the country, whose entire population dreams of becoming US citizens. Damn, I never thought that I could become a Mexican.
    1. Warrawar
      Warrawar 16 January 2013 20: 42
      0
      Quote: komsomolets
      countries whose entire population dreams of becoming US citizens

      I dream of becoming US citizens, only boobies who can’t imagine what’s going on there.
  21. KRAT
    KRAT 16 January 2013 22: 10
    +1
    Quote: Warrawar
    The most likely scenario in this country is the rise of Nazis to power.
    Moreover, the change of power is likely to happen before 2015, as in Ukraine the economy will collapse in 13-14 and unrest will begin.

    Well, the prophet "grandma Vanga" is straightforward, it is immediately clear that you are respected and have no idea what Ukraine is. Firstly, there is an "overwhelming" minority of these shortcomings, there are still enough sane people, only ethnic Russians 12 (million) or even more, Russian-speaking more than half of the population and they all sympathize with the TS. Well, about the economy, you also got excited, almost all industrial enterprises work, although local oligarchs have appropriated them, but the workers are not particularly offended, the salary is not bad, of course there are enough problems, but This is how it all collapsed, it's simply impossible, I'm sure of it.
  22. MG42
    MG42 17 January 2013 18: 59
    +2
    Yanukovych is not going to the Customs Union, it seems Ukrainian. the oligarchs made their choice.

    A spokesman for Viktor Yanukovych has denied information about his allegedly upcoming visit to Vladimir Putin.

    president.gov.ua
    The visit of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to Moscow in February is not planned, said spokeswoman for the head of state Darius Chepak.

    "At the moment, such a visit is not planned in the schedule of the head of state for February. As soon as it is planned, we will inform the media," she said.

    Earlier, the Izvestia newspaper, citing its sources, reported that Yanukovych plans to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in February, on the eve of the signing of an agreement on a free trade zone at the EU summit on February 25.

    At the same time, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov also noted that no information has yet been received on Yanukovych’s visit to the Kremlin

    Recall that the previous meeting between Yanukovych and Putin, during which it was planned to discuss the issue of the Customs Union, was appointed in Moscow on December 18, 2012, but it was canceled at the last moment. Based on materials: Interfax-Ukraine
  23. Akim
    Akim 18 January 2013 10: 14
    0
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