Missiles on the Turkish-Syrian Border: Pros and Cons
About NATO batteries "Patriot" on the Turkish-Syrian border now write a lot. However, one can say that the analysts have no original material on this topic. In fact, no one knows why Turkey has a missile defense system. Officially - for defense against Syrian missiles. But it seems that no one in the world believes. Even the Turks themselves.
Recently on the website of the news agency Reuters Adrian Croft's interesting material emerged, in which the idea is expressed: sending the Patriots to Turkey has the hidden goal of obtaining benefits from the reduction of armed forces in Europe. The transportation of the complexes helps the Europeans to justify the presence of expensive and extremely rarely used weapons systems in the crisis time when the governments are busy reducing military spending.
This is probably why the Germans and the Dutch have expressed a desire to transfer their systems to Turkey, and at the same time send a military to 400 to service this country on this country. All of this followed in the form of a positive response to the request of Turkey, which turned to NATO and expressed a desire to receive “Patriots” to strengthen the security of its 900-kilometer border with Syria.
Ankara argued her request by saying that shells had fallen on her territory during the conflict in Syria more than once. Turks are afraid that the Syrian civil war may spread to their territory.
Patriot batteries are officially designed to counter Syrian missiles. "Patriots" will guard the three southeastern Turkish cities.
In addition to the batteries from the Netherlands and Germany, the Patriot complexes were shared with Turkey and the United States. They also sent Mr Erdogan a couple of batteries. All batteries, according to NATO plans, should begin to function by February or slightly earlier.
The deployment of the Patriots, the Reuters journalist points out, provides Europeans with an excellent argument that, they say, there is a need for both complex systems and highly skilled operators. This “argument” is nothing more than a clear signal to the austerity regime of crisis governments, which may continue to look for ways to reduce defense costs.
General Tom Middendorp, commander of the Netherlands armed forces, does not hide this: "This is really important ..." He explained to journalists that ballistic missiles and laser technologies are a growing threat, and therefore we have modern missile defense systems - "not a luxury" .
Meanwhile, Adrian Croft notes that the governments of Western European countries, struggling with the economic crisis and budget deficit, have already reduced defense spending. The fact is that such expenses are a politically easy target. It is much easier to get into it, the author of the article notes, rather than in the cost items for social services. Cuts in defense spending are the first things that European governments are likely to undertake, since Western Europe does not face a real military threat.
All this is really easy to understand.
For example, the Dutch government announced back in April 2011 plans to cut 12 jobs in the Ministry of Defense and cut the park tanks and fighters. Total savings should be at least 1 billion euros.
And even a relatively prosperous Germany cuts its military spending - in the transition from conscription to a professional army. There we can talk about halving the number of Patriot batteries (there are 24).
Meanwhile, Washington is worried about the growing “gulf” between the capabilities of the American army and the capabilities of the armies of European allies.
Edward Hunt, a military expert at the consulting company IHS Jane, said that the use of the Patriots is much less likely than, perhaps, the capabilities and forces of infantry, reconnaissance aircraft, transport aircraft or sea vessels (they are used almost constantly). Missiles, he said, are used only in extreme cases or as a deterrent.
Nevertheless, the expert warned that if the governments get rid of them, the armies will lose their skills at the same time, and the service personnel will lose their knowledge. And in case of need, it will take a lot of time to train people and make the systems ready.
However, the “Patriots”, which can be used to intercept airplanes, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles, are not cheap.
Here's information about the latest deal and the latest prices: the US administration notified Congress in July 2012 of the possible sale of the Patriot PAC-60 3 to Kuwait and related equipment worth up to 4,2 billion dollars.
By the way, the total cost of the NATO mission in Turkey (calculated for a year) is 42 million euros. This is the kind of savings ...
By deploying complexes in Turkey, NATO says that in early February, if not earlier, the Patriots will be put into operation. About this, according to the Iranian channel Press TV, said the spokesman for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization on Monday. The transport of troops and equipment has been going on since the beginning of January and will continue for the next few weeks. Germany will send 400 people and Netherlands - 360 as service personnel for two batteries. Germany will begin to deploy the main contingent (350 soldiers) in mid-January.
As for the US forces, the first group is already located in the southeastern city of Gaziantep. (From this city 120 km to Aleppo. - O. Ch.). In the coming days, additional personnel and equipment will be transferred there. Each Patriot battery has an average of 12 missiles.
Syria, according to Press TV, condemned the Turkish plan to deploy the Patriots along its border, calling it another provocative act by the government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
According to official wording NATO, "Patriots" are designed to "protect the NATO partner from the possible threats from Syria."
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu reassured the general public. 11 January, speaking at a meeting of the Chamber of Commerce in Istanbul, he saidthat the Patriot missile defense complexes will be removed from the Syrian-Turkish border and returned to the NATO allies of Turkey immediately after the disappearance of the security threat from Syria:
Why, that's just how the resource kindly reminds "Russian peacemaker", Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems are deployed in Turkey for at least two years. Moreover, this period is defined without amendments to the development of the situation in Syria.
The opinion is expressed that the creation of the Turkish bridgehead enables NATO to exert direct pressure on Iran. That is, the purpose of the system "Patriot" is not necessarily Syria.
But with Iran, not everything is so simple and straightforward. Yes, note that the Patriot complexes are not intended for attack, but for defense: they can hit targets within a radius of only 70 kilometers (in height - up to 20 kilometers). However, these SAM systems are highly mobile and can be quickly relocated to the right place. For example, closer to the Iranian provinces.
But General Hasan Firuzabadi, Chief of the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, writes “Russian peacekeeper”, said in mid-December that his country did not want a confrontation with Turkey:
The behavior is logical and marginal clear. If NATO's porridge is brewed in the region, Iran will inevitably become one of its ingredients. Therefore, Tehran is not going to aggravate the situation in the Middle East. Although, for the sake of objectivity, it is necessary to quote, more earlier, the December statement of Comrade Firuzabadi. is he сказал that the deployment of the Patriots on the Turkish-Syrian border sets the stage for a world war:
According to him, there are forces in the world that are developing plans for a new global war, and this is "very dangerous for all of humanity, and indeed for Europe itself."
These words of Comrade Firuzabadi immediately reacted Ahmet Davutoglu, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey. According to the latter, Turkey expects Iran not to make statements regarding the defense system, but a clear message to the “Syrian regime”, and at the same time use its influence in Syria to stop the violence there.
Probably, after this rebuke, Firuzabadi changed the rhetoric to a more peaceful one.
At the end of last year, in a conversation with Russian journalists, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Sergey Lavrov сказал:
Thus, our minister is also inclined to the "Iranian" version.
Experts say that using the Patriot air defense missile system to intercept artillery or mortar shells, even those flying from Syria, is about the same thing as firing guns on sparrows.
Hence the assumption is made that the strategic goal of the “Patriots” is not to ensure the security of Turkey, but to create a no-fly zone over the border territory of Syria - according to the Libyan NATO scenario.
The MIM-104 complex (the current version of the Patriot air defense system in Turkey) really allows you to “close” a large swath of Syrian territory.
There is one "but." The defense of a NATO member state is a matter for NATO countries. There is nothing to argue, in essence. You can talk about "incitement", "aggravation" or "provocations", but no more. But if Ankara (or NATO) decides to create a no-fly zone in Syria, then this will require permission from the UN Security Council. And there Russia and China will certainly impose another veto on the “resolution”.
And one more version. The Turks can really use the Patriots for protection. The question is what are they going to protect. It is possible that not their civilian facilities and infrastructure, but the caravans of militants.
Well-known analyst Dmitry Sedov считаетthat since Turkey is a member of NATO, it turns out that the North Atlantic Alliance is preparing for an attack on Syria.
The analyst adds that the insurgents will receive protection from the Syrian air force (again, the Libyan scenario is being modeled), the analyst adds. True, the expert says, given that the Syrian air force and air defense are better than the Libyan ones, this task will not be easy.
The analyst connects the arrival of 50 patriot missiles to Turkey with the intensification of discussions in the West about Damascus’s preparations for the use of chemical weapons. weapons. Essentially, it is proposed that world public opinion learns through stuffing in the press that, since Syria is going to use a terrible chemical weapon, then intervention is needed:
As for Turkey, one cannot say that its people approve of the policy of Prime Minister Erdogan.
Resource Armenia Todayreferring to the Voice of Russia, reports that against the background of the beginning of the deployment of the first Patriot air defense batteries, residents of the Turkish Gaziantep held a rally under the slogan “No to rockets, no tears!” The organizer of the action was the Saadt Party, the political wing of the National Look . The people spoke against the war in Syria, and against the presence of foreign military on their territory, and against the deployment of the Patriots.
The organizer of the meeting, the deputy chairman of the Saadet party, Birol Aydin, said that dozens of meetings had been held earlier, but this one is different from them. He was the reaction of the people to the threat hanging directly over their homeland. We, comrade Aydin noted, are holding a rally against the NATO radar in Malatya, against the installation of the Patriots and against the regional policy of the West. It is thanks to the last region for 10-15 years faced with the threat of large-scale war.
Moreover, according to Birol Aydin, Turkey will be the worst. it is she who will face the greatest danger.
The slogans of “Saadat” at the rally were the following: “No to rockets! No tears! ”The protesters did not want the“ Patriots ”near the border, nor the radars, nor the NATO military. They do not want Turkey to be drawn into a war against Syria, against Iran or any other country. Peace, peace and prosperity - this is what the Turks want. As for the Syrian crisis, Saadat is in favor of its peaceful settlement, without outside interference.
Erdogan and Davutoglu protesters urged to act prudently and reject their decisions.
In January, the meeting was attended by public organizations, for example, the Association of Youth of Anatolia. The head of the Gaziantep branch of this large association, Fatih Evyapan, said:
Once upon a time, young Strindberg, through the mouths of his literary hero, said: "How strange that rulers always want what the people do not want ..."
Recently on the website of the news agency Reuters Adrian Croft's interesting material emerged, in which the idea is expressed: sending the Patriots to Turkey has the hidden goal of obtaining benefits from the reduction of armed forces in Europe. The transportation of the complexes helps the Europeans to justify the presence of expensive and extremely rarely used weapons systems in the crisis time when the governments are busy reducing military spending.
This is probably why the Germans and the Dutch have expressed a desire to transfer their systems to Turkey, and at the same time send a military to 400 to service this country on this country. All of this followed in the form of a positive response to the request of Turkey, which turned to NATO and expressed a desire to receive “Patriots” to strengthen the security of its 900-kilometer border with Syria.
Ankara argued her request by saying that shells had fallen on her territory during the conflict in Syria more than once. Turks are afraid that the Syrian civil war may spread to their territory.
Patriot batteries are officially designed to counter Syrian missiles. "Patriots" will guard the three southeastern Turkish cities.
In addition to the batteries from the Netherlands and Germany, the Patriot complexes were shared with Turkey and the United States. They also sent Mr Erdogan a couple of batteries. All batteries, according to NATO plans, should begin to function by February or slightly earlier.
The deployment of the Patriots, the Reuters journalist points out, provides Europeans with an excellent argument that, they say, there is a need for both complex systems and highly skilled operators. This “argument” is nothing more than a clear signal to the austerity regime of crisis governments, which may continue to look for ways to reduce defense costs.
General Tom Middendorp, commander of the Netherlands armed forces, does not hide this: "This is really important ..." He explained to journalists that ballistic missiles and laser technologies are a growing threat, and therefore we have modern missile defense systems - "not a luxury" .
Meanwhile, Adrian Croft notes that the governments of Western European countries, struggling with the economic crisis and budget deficit, have already reduced defense spending. The fact is that such expenses are a politically easy target. It is much easier to get into it, the author of the article notes, rather than in the cost items for social services. Cuts in defense spending are the first things that European governments are likely to undertake, since Western Europe does not face a real military threat.
All this is really easy to understand.
For example, the Dutch government announced back in April 2011 plans to cut 12 jobs in the Ministry of Defense and cut the park tanks and fighters. Total savings should be at least 1 billion euros.
And even a relatively prosperous Germany cuts its military spending - in the transition from conscription to a professional army. There we can talk about halving the number of Patriot batteries (there are 24).
Meanwhile, Washington is worried about the growing “gulf” between the capabilities of the American army and the capabilities of the armies of European allies.
Edward Hunt, a military expert at the consulting company IHS Jane, said that the use of the Patriots is much less likely than, perhaps, the capabilities and forces of infantry, reconnaissance aircraft, transport aircraft or sea vessels (they are used almost constantly). Missiles, he said, are used only in extreme cases or as a deterrent.
Nevertheless, the expert warned that if the governments get rid of them, the armies will lose their skills at the same time, and the service personnel will lose their knowledge. And in case of need, it will take a lot of time to train people and make the systems ready.
However, the “Patriots”, which can be used to intercept airplanes, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles, are not cheap.
Here's information about the latest deal and the latest prices: the US administration notified Congress in July 2012 of the possible sale of the Patriot PAC-60 3 to Kuwait and related equipment worth up to 4,2 billion dollars.
By the way, the total cost of the NATO mission in Turkey (calculated for a year) is 42 million euros. This is the kind of savings ...
By deploying complexes in Turkey, NATO says that in early February, if not earlier, the Patriots will be put into operation. About this, according to the Iranian channel Press TV, said the spokesman for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization on Monday. The transport of troops and equipment has been going on since the beginning of January and will continue for the next few weeks. Germany will send 400 people and Netherlands - 360 as service personnel for two batteries. Germany will begin to deploy the main contingent (350 soldiers) in mid-January.
As for the US forces, the first group is already located in the southeastern city of Gaziantep. (From this city 120 km to Aleppo. - O. Ch.). In the coming days, additional personnel and equipment will be transferred there. Each Patriot battery has an average of 12 missiles.
Syria, according to Press TV, condemned the Turkish plan to deploy the Patriots along its border, calling it another provocative act by the government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
According to official wording NATO, "Patriots" are designed to "protect the NATO partner from the possible threats from Syria."
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu reassured the general public. 11 January, speaking at a meeting of the Chamber of Commerce in Istanbul, he saidthat the Patriot missile defense complexes will be removed from the Syrian-Turkish border and returned to the NATO allies of Turkey immediately after the disappearance of the security threat from Syria:
“Patriot complexes will be sent back as soon as the security threat to Turkey disappears. If it disappears tomorrow, we will send “Patriot” before they are fully deployed. I hope that we can soon abandon them. "
Why, that's just how the resource kindly reminds "Russian peacemaker", Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems are deployed in Turkey for at least two years. Moreover, this period is defined without amendments to the development of the situation in Syria.
The opinion is expressed that the creation of the Turkish bridgehead enables NATO to exert direct pressure on Iran. That is, the purpose of the system "Patriot" is not necessarily Syria.
But with Iran, not everything is so simple and straightforward. Yes, note that the Patriot complexes are not intended for attack, but for defense: they can hit targets within a radius of only 70 kilometers (in height - up to 20 kilometers). However, these SAM systems are highly mobile and can be quickly relocated to the right place. For example, closer to the Iranian provinces.
But General Hasan Firuzabadi, Chief of the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, writes “Russian peacekeeper”, said in mid-December that his country did not want a confrontation with Turkey:
"We are friends of Turkey, and we want Turkey to be safe."
The behavior is logical and marginal clear. If NATO's porridge is brewed in the region, Iran will inevitably become one of its ingredients. Therefore, Tehran is not going to aggravate the situation in the Middle East. Although, for the sake of objectivity, it is necessary to quote, more earlier, the December statement of Comrade Firuzabadi. is he сказал that the deployment of the Patriots on the Turkish-Syrian border sets the stage for a world war:
“Each of these“ Patriots ”is like a black spot on the world map. They carry the threat of a new world war. ”
According to him, there are forces in the world that are developing plans for a new global war, and this is "very dangerous for all of humanity, and indeed for Europe itself."
These words of Comrade Firuzabadi immediately reacted Ahmet Davutoglu, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey. According to the latter, Turkey expects Iran not to make statements regarding the defense system, but a clear message to the “Syrian regime”, and at the same time use its influence in Syria to stop the violence there.
Probably, after this rebuke, Firuzabadi changed the rhetoric to a more peaceful one.
At the end of last year, in a conversation with Russian journalists, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Sergey Lavrov сказал:
“With regard to the objectives of this deployment, I read and heard what the experts say: if it was deployed to counteract the shelling from Syrian territory, then it should be installed somewhat differently. Its intended location, it is claimed, suggests that it should be used to protect the American radar, which is part of the US missile defense system, created to protect against "the threat from Iran."
Thus, our minister is also inclined to the "Iranian" version.
Experts say that using the Patriot air defense missile system to intercept artillery or mortar shells, even those flying from Syria, is about the same thing as firing guns on sparrows.
Hence the assumption is made that the strategic goal of the “Patriots” is not to ensure the security of Turkey, but to create a no-fly zone over the border territory of Syria - according to the Libyan NATO scenario.
The MIM-104 complex (the current version of the Patriot air defense system in Turkey) really allows you to “close” a large swath of Syrian territory.
There is one "but." The defense of a NATO member state is a matter for NATO countries. There is nothing to argue, in essence. You can talk about "incitement", "aggravation" or "provocations", but no more. But if Ankara (or NATO) decides to create a no-fly zone in Syria, then this will require permission from the UN Security Council. And there Russia and China will certainly impose another veto on the “resolution”.
And one more version. The Turks can really use the Patriots for protection. The question is what are they going to protect. It is possible that not their civilian facilities and infrastructure, but the caravans of militants.
Well-known analyst Dmitry Sedov считаетthat since Turkey is a member of NATO, it turns out that the North Atlantic Alliance is preparing for an attack on Syria.
“Radar systems of anti-aircraft missile systems, after being deployed in Gaziantep, will be able to detect objects in the airspace above the second largest city of Syria, Aleppo, and in the sky over the province of Idlib. Two more air defense missile systems, which will be controlled by soldiers of the Bundeswehr, are planned to be deployed in the province of Karhamanmaras, approximately 80 kilometers from the Syrian border. Two more batteries - from the Netherlands - will be installed in the city of Adana to monitor the airspace over the eastern Mediterranean, including the Syrian ports of Lattakia and Tartus, which the Russian Navy enters.
Thus, the area of action of the "Patriots" covers the areas of Syria in which the most persistent battles with the rebels take place. Just between Aleppo and the Turkish border are the bases of the not yet repressed terrorist groups ... ”
Thus, the area of action of the "Patriots" covers the areas of Syria in which the most persistent battles with the rebels take place. Just between Aleppo and the Turkish border are the bases of the not yet repressed terrorist groups ... ”
The analyst adds that the insurgents will receive protection from the Syrian air force (again, the Libyan scenario is being modeled), the analyst adds. True, the expert says, given that the Syrian air force and air defense are better than the Libyan ones, this task will not be easy.
The analyst connects the arrival of 50 patriot missiles to Turkey with the intensification of discussions in the West about Damascus’s preparations for the use of chemical weapons. weapons. Essentially, it is proposed that world public opinion learns through stuffing in the press that, since Syria is going to use a terrible chemical weapon, then intervention is needed:
"Two processes launched in parallel - the deployment of NATO missiles in Turkey and the preparation of public opinion for direct intervention in the Syrian conflict from outside - indicate that foreign initiators of the terrorist war against Syria intend to go to the end."
As for Turkey, one cannot say that its people approve of the policy of Prime Minister Erdogan.
Resource Armenia Todayreferring to the Voice of Russia, reports that against the background of the beginning of the deployment of the first Patriot air defense batteries, residents of the Turkish Gaziantep held a rally under the slogan “No to rockets, no tears!” The organizer of the action was the Saadt Party, the political wing of the National Look . The people spoke against the war in Syria, and against the presence of foreign military on their territory, and against the deployment of the Patriots.
The organizer of the meeting, the deputy chairman of the Saadet party, Birol Aydin, said that dozens of meetings had been held earlier, but this one is different from them. He was the reaction of the people to the threat hanging directly over their homeland. We, comrade Aydin noted, are holding a rally against the NATO radar in Malatya, against the installation of the Patriots and against the regional policy of the West. It is thanks to the last region for 10-15 years faced with the threat of large-scale war.
Moreover, according to Birol Aydin, Turkey will be the worst. it is she who will face the greatest danger.
The slogans of “Saadat” at the rally were the following: “No to rockets! No tears! ”The protesters did not want the“ Patriots ”near the border, nor the radars, nor the NATO military. They do not want Turkey to be drawn into a war against Syria, against Iran or any other country. Peace, peace and prosperity - this is what the Turks want. As for the Syrian crisis, Saadat is in favor of its peaceful settlement, without outside interference.
Erdogan and Davutoglu protesters urged to act prudently and reject their decisions.
In January, the meeting was attended by public organizations, for example, the Association of Youth of Anatolia. The head of the Gaziantep branch of this large association, Fatih Evyapan, said:
“... The inhabitants of Gaziantep are against the American military, against the Patriots. Our people rally for a peaceful resolution of the crisis in Syria ... We appeal to our authorities and to the international community. We do not need "Patriots"! 90-95% of Turkish citizens against their installation in Turkey! If necessary, our people will be able to stand up for themselves! We, with a rake, hoes, shoulder blades, managed to drive out the western occupiers in due time. We will be able to repel the enemy occupation today. And we are not so stupid as to believe that these “Patriots” are established for our security. ”
Once upon a time, young Strindberg, through the mouths of his literary hero, said: "How strange that rulers always want what the people do not want ..."
Observed and translated by Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru
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