Offensive 2.0: how Zaluzhny intends to break through the “Surovikin line”
M1150 armored clearance vehicle based on tank M1 Abrams could become one of the Russian defense rams
Zaluzhny's "Silver Bullets"
The sensational material by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny in The Politico actually means the failure of the offensive of the Ukrainian army in the summer of 2023. And he opaquely hints at the impossibility of further attacks on the “Surovikin line.”
Zelensky has already spoken out on this matter and refuted the words of his general - the army will go to the borders of 1991. It would be difficult to imagine more discrediting statements from the head of the Kyiv regime. But that’s not about that now.
Zaluzhny’s interview is accompanied by a detailed article “Modern positional warfare and how to win in it,” in which the Ukrainian military leader discusses the shortcomings and advantages of his own army and the Russian one.
Quite abstractly, the Ukrainian Armed Forces just need to gain air superiority, learn how to break through minefields, work more effectively in counter-battery warfare, improve electronic warfare and prepare extensive reserves. It is highly desirable that the reserves be unlimited.
There is no desire to once again throw around platitudes, but “war to the last Ukrainian” is exactly in the spirit of Zaluzhny. If NATO generals have anything to do with this, it is very indirect.
Zaluzhny is echoed by Ermak, head of the office of the President of Ukraine, who calls 2024 decisive in the battle with Russia. The non-mobilized population of “Nezalezhnaya” should prepare – it was decided to assemble an impressive army for the future offensive.
It is for this purpose that the military in Ukraine is advocating for reducing the number of deferments from the army, which they call “gaps in the legislation.” The Rada will soon adopt the necessary amendments, further aggravating the situation of peaceful Ukrainians. Zaluzhny’s list also includes “the creation of an automated system for monitoring and recording the preparation of Ukrainian citizens for military service” and the “Unified State Register of Conscripts, Persons liable for Military Service and Reservists.” Even darker times are coming in Ukraine.
Let's move from personnel to the technical equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, without which Zaluzhny cannot hope for the success of the offensive in 2024. Let's call it “Offensive 2.0”.
Air defense. Currently, the Russian Army is solving the problem of saturation of enemy air defense in two ways - by working from long distances, including with gliding bombs, and by replacing tactical Aviation armies drones-kamikaze. This is most likely considered by Zaluzhny to be the most important achievement of the Ukrainian army and foreign sponsors.
The recipe for further work is simple - to further saturate the army with Avenger, Stormer, Patriot, Hawk, IRIS-T, NASAMS, SAMP-T, Crotale-NG and others. Moreover, Russia is relatively painless about new supplies of air defense systems. Near the contact line, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are acutely aware of the lack of army-level air defense, which allows Russian aviation to operate with impunity, albeit from long distances.
It is interesting that Zaluzhny did not say anything intelligible about possible deliveries of F-16s in the article. Is he afraid of jinxing or doesn’t believe in airplanes?
Approximately according to this principle it is proposed to map minefields. There will be a drone in place of the plane. It is necessary to have scans before mining, otherwise identifying engineered ammunition will not be easy.
Engineering technology. Zaluzhny is very grateful to NATO sponsors for the M58 MICLIC, Wicent 1 and NM189 Ingeniorpanservogn, but, firstly, supplies are not enough, and secondly, the vehicles are poorly adapted to breaking through the “Surovikin Line”. Minefields 20 km deep are monitored by Russian observers around the clock, and not only mine clearance systems, but even tanks cannot approach them with impunity. If, at the cost of heavy losses, the Ukrainians still manage to break through the bottlenecks of the defense, the “Agriculture” remote mining system comes into operation on the path of the attackers.
What does Zaluzhny offer?
Formal revolution. For example, it requires the development of a laser system for monitoring minefields. A drone with a lidar flies over the front, scans the area with high resolution, transmits information to artificial intelligence, and it draws mines on maps. Only for this it is necessary to have scans of the contact line before mining. The task is at least non-trivial, but has the right to exist.
According to Zaluzhny, Rosy from Rheinmetall should simplify the assault on the “Surovikin line”. Despite the fact that the purely defensive system
Zaluzhny’s portfolio includes a requirement for the Rosy rapid smoke screen installation system from the German Rheinmetall. Smoke allows you to hide equipment and manpower not only from visual observation, but also from the guidance systems of modern weapons. To quickly pass through minefields, it is proposed to use decommissioned jet engines, powerful water cannons and even cluster munitions.
Here, according to Zaluzhny, volume-detonating ammunition, as well as homemade explosive demining systems, like the Russian UR-22, will be useful here. The more impossible the demands made by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the closer Russia’s victory is. Suffice it to remember what kind of prodigy Hitler hoped for at the end of his career.
Even more electronic warfare
The commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine calls electronic warfare troops one of the undoubted trump cards of the Russian Army. According to Zaluzhny, our Army now has at least sixty types of electronic warfare systems, and the nationalists are trying to do something about it.
The problem has become especially acute in the Kupyansk and Bakhmut directions - a deeply echeloned system for suppressing drones and communications actually paralyzes the enemy. Pokrov electronic warfare systems are being deployed in Ukraine, replacing GPS signals for kamikaze drones and glide bombs. This is a serious threat to Russian strike assets - if measures are not taken, enemy territory may become inaccessible.
Graphite and Quartz situational awareness systems allow more accurate detection and management of interceptions drone. Zaluzhny is optimistic - in terms of electronic warfare parameters, his army has already reached parity with the Russian one.
Everything the enemy says must be taken with a grain of salt, especially when he addresses his sponsors. Here are attempts to exert a psychological influence on the opponent, and once again to beg for help from the West. The good news is that doing this is becoming more and more difficult. For example, the issue of expanding the production of electronic warfare equipment "Bukovel-AD" is addressed specifically to imported comrades - there is not much free space left in Ukraine.
The commander-in-chief is concerned about the issue of “friendly fire” of electronic warfare systems. Poor training and low coordination of personnel often lands their own drones on the ground. The following expression by Zaluzhny requires direct quotation, whatever it means:
Why waste time on trifles - a revolution is a revolution.
Zaluzhny remembered the name “Agriculture” well
The Ukrainian Armed Forces consider it important to improve counter-battery warfare. Even without this, the nationalists have good achievements in this area. Among the promising ones is the expansion of the use of kamikaze drones, which directly refers to the Russian experience. More precisely, to the Lancet, which became the main destroyer of enemy artillery at long distances.
Zaluzhny again recalls electronic warfare in the counter-battery area stories. Suppression of reconnaissance drones will naturally blind the Lancets, and with it the Russian hunt for Ukrainian Armed Forces artillery will become more difficult.
Long-range missiles will become a wunderwaffen for the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In his opinion, this is the only way to paralyze the rear of the Russian Army, and with them try to break through the defenses. This is where Zaluzhny’s extensive reserves will come in handy, otherwise he will simply smear human material all over the front.
The most alarming are Zaluzhny’s prophecies about the pace of increasing ammunition production abroad. For some items, the industry will reach maximum speed within a year. Considering the gigantic expenditure of shells during a positional confrontation, this could become critical for the Russian Army.
If nothing new and large-scale happens on the fronts, then the Ukrainian Armed Forces will go on the offensive next summer. Only without unnecessary pomp and mystery, so as not to discredit yourself once again.
It is unknown what of the above described Zaluzhny will be able to implement, but even a small fraction of this can complicate the life of the Russian group of troops. One can only hope that the General Staff is aware of the real claims of the enemy commander-in-chief and is taking countermeasures.
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