The processes associated with the Islamization of Russia did not begin today or yesterday, but they became most noticeable in the past few months. In the last six months, the public sphere has been stirred up by a number of scandalous stories - here is the public beating of Nikita Zhuravel by Adam Kadyrov (the son of Ramzan Kadyrov) for a religious crime against Islam, and the disappearance of crosses from a number of heraldic symbols and logos of advertising campaigns, and the appearance of “halal” products and maps Sberbank “according to Sharia”.
All this suggests that the processes of Islamization of Russia have entered a stage where it is no longer possible not to notice them and pretend that nothing is happening. Explaining everything that is happening only by Russia’s flirting with the Islamic world (which is the case, which is why Russia did not condemn the actions of Hamas - Moscow considers it important to maintain good relations with Iran) is quite problematic, since we are dealing with a consistent movement.
The Islamization of Russia is associated both with the constant increase in the number of Muslim migrants from Central Asia, many of whom become “new citizens” (see material “New citizens” of Russia with dual citizenship – what is their civic identity?”), and with the Islamization of youth in the Islamic republics of the Russian Federation. Recent events in Dagestan, where an angry crowd of radical Muslims searched for Jews and destroyed the airport, clearly demonstrated these processes of Islamization.
There is another factor in the Islamization of Russia, related to the demographic situation - according to research data, the Russian population of the Russian Federation is rapidly dying out and is gradually being replaced by migrants from Muslim countries.
We will discuss the reasons for the Islamization of Russia and the demographic gap in this material.
What is Islamization?
When it comes to the loss of a people’s cultural identity and traditions and its replacement by another identity, the reaction of a significant part of ordinary people comes down to two positions - either that “now is not the time to talk about it” (I wonder when this wonderful time will come), or to calls for multinational friendship and that “such a problem does not exist, these are all inventions of evil capitalists/Anglo-Saxons/Freemasons.”
The fact that Islam is not just a religion, but a military-political doctrine, a way of life, a special view of the world, the author has already noted in the material ““Global Jihad” is a threat not only to Israel and Europe, but also to Russia" Therefore, in order to move on to a direct consideration of the problem, it is necessary to answer the question - what is Islamization and how is it carried out?
Danish psychologist Nikolai Sennels, author of Holy Wrath: Among Criminal Muslims, notes that the word “Islamization” was originally coined by Muslims to describe the transformation of societies from a state of “kufr” (“infidelity”) to an “enlightened” (Islamic) society* . One way of such transformation is through the destruction and suppression of non-Islamic symbols and traditions.
Islamization as a scientific phenomenon means the process of increasing the influence of Islam in various spheres of public policy and public life, as well as the process of increasing the number of people professing this religion in a region or country. Islamization is carried out through the destruction of indigenous culture, the introduction of Islamic customs, and the creation of a parallel Muslim society that ignores the laws of the host country.
Islam is displacing the original culture, eroding its important life principles. Nikolai Sennels notes that for each new stage of Islamization, the interval between it and the next stage becomes shorter and shorter. It is becoming increasingly easier for Muslims to put forward new demands, justifying them with previously made concessions.
In the first stages, Islamization occurs relatively unnoticed - at first we do not object to the construction of mosques in different areas of a particular city, then we do not object to the use of burqas and niqabs in public places, then we turn a blind eye to the fact that retail premises refuse Christian and national symbols for fear of offending Muslims and losing them as clients.
Then the processes become more noticeable - the Islamization of state symbols occurs, the Islamization of food (“halal products”), the Islamization of the economic sphere (the so-called “Islamic banking”), then the Islamization of institutions, jobs and the rhythm of life occurs, when weekends for Muslim holidays are officially introduced .
At the third stage, the Islamization of jurisprudence begins to occur - at first, law enforcement agencies do not block self-proclaimed “Sharia courts”, lynchings, and the activities of Islamic intermediaries, instead hushing up cases of insults, threats and violence from Muslims and turning to Islamic “authorities” to prevent violence. And then the Islamists infiltrate the law enforcement system, gradually transforming it.
At the final stage, the Sharia “morality police” appear, which begin to conduct raids on public places and look, for example, for girls in short skirts, while the police (in which, as mentioned above, “agents of influence” appeared) remain inactive and pretend that nothing is happening. At this starting point, the Islamization of the country is already inevitable.
Having understood what Islamization is, let’s move on to the issue of Islamization of Russia.
Islamization of Russia: some statistics
According to official statistics, at the beginning of 2023, about 20 million Muslims live in Russia, which is about 15% of the population. In some regions, for example, Dagestan, Ingushetia and Chechnya, more than 95% of the inhabitants profess Islam.
According to census data, the total number of representatives of traditionally Islamic peoples was: in 1959 - 7 million people (6% of the Russian population), in 1970 - 9 million (7%), in 1989 - 12 million (8%), in 2002 - 15 million (10%), in 2022 – 20 million people (15%). If the trend continues, then in 2050 Russia will have, say, 110 million inhabitants, and of these, 30 million ethnic Muslims (27%)**.
However, the growth trend of the Muslim population is greatly underestimated. After all, Russia is being overwhelmed by massive migration, legal and illegal, from traditionally Muslim countries, and it cannot be counted. According to minimal estimates, there are between a million and two illegal migrants in Moscow alone.
The migration flow has increased sharply in recent years and is increasing, while natural population decline continues to accelerate at a progressive pace. Thus, in 2000, only 93 people migrated to Russia, and in 000 - already 2011, and if the index of compensation for natural losses in 320 due to migration was equal to 000%, then by 2000 it had already become equal to 30%. Consequently, almost half of the population is replaced by migrants**.
Researchers note that if the process of Islamization continues at this pace, then, given that the replacement of the natural population due to the flow of migrants, among whom the overwhelming majority are mainly preaching Islam, reaches 45%, then we can get an 80% or more Islamized Russia already by 2050.
And how many actual Russians will remain in Russia by that time, taking into account the fact that the share of the Slavic population (as well as its total number) in Russia is constantly decreasing?
The demographic crisis and Islamization are a direct relationship
Following statistical data, the total fertility rate (TFR) in Russia in 2019 was 1,5 children per woman (see table), and in a number of Russian regions of the Russian Federation the regional TFR is even lower. For example, in the Smolensk region it is 1,13, and in the Tula region - 1,22. In other words, the average Russian family has about 1 child, which means that Russians are dying out at about twice the rate per generation. For the reproduction of the people, a birth rate of 2,1 is required.
In a quarter (22 out of 85) of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the total fertility rate in 2019 was lower than in 2015 by 20% or more. In 2019, the birth rate for the 20–24 age group in Russia was the lowest since at least 1959. However, a higher value of the total fertility rate in 2019 compared to 2017 is observed in the republics: Ingushetia (by 3,0%) and Karachay-Cherkess (by 3,2%)***.
It should be emphasized here that the demographic catastrophe in the Russian Federation has a pronounced ethnic connotation - it exists mainly in regions with an overwhelming number of Russian population and is absent in other regions of the Russian Federation - for example, Chechnya, Dagestan, Tyva and Ingushetia have a natural population increase. It is for this reason that it would be incorrect to talk only about economic reasons for the fact that Russian women do not give birth.
Do not forget that in the most prosperous and rich countries of Western Europe, for example, Germany, the birth rate over the past 20 years has been in the range from 1,3 to 1,5, as in the Russian regions of the Russian Federation. At the same time, countries with the highest demographic indicators are among the poorest countries in the world - Angola, Afghanistan, Iraq, etc.
It would also be incorrect to say that the demographic catastrophe in Russia was only the result of the collapse of the USSR - of course, this was one of the factors accelerating the decline in the birth rate, but statistics indicate that the birth rate in Russia began to decline back in the 1960s: in 1960 by For every 1 population, 000 people were born per year, in 23,2 – already 1980; and in 15,9 – 2010.
One of the key reasons for the decline in the birth rate is the destruction of the traditional institution of the family, and statistics confirm this - according to EMISS, in 2020, 73% of marriages in Russia broke up, for comparison: in 2018 and 2019, 65% of marriages broke up. However, consideration of the reasons for the extinction of the Russian population is a topic for a separate article.
The main thing I would like to note is that, according to experts, Russians in Russia are dying out at a rate of about 1 million people per year. If current demographic trends continue, the number of Russians in Russia in 30 years will decrease by 30 million people (more than 22% of the total population at the moment). How many Muslim migrants there will be in Russia by then is an open question.
Conclusion
Thus, from all of the above, a disappointing conclusion suggests itself - if migration policy, the policy of tolerance and “multinational friendship” do not change, and the demographic situation in Russia does not improve, by 2050 (in fact, already in the 2040s) Muslims in Russia will become the majority, which means complete Islamization of the Russian Federation may occur. This is unless, of course, radical Islamists try to shake up the situation and seize power into their own hands earlier.
Flirting with radical Islamists and making concessions for those who commit illegal acts will only lead to them becoming increasingly convinced that they can put pressure on the authorities and achieve results.
Many people forget that Islamization also implies disloyalty of Muslims to non-Islamic authorities, when they recognize only their own as authorities. This is really dangerous for the state.
Notes:
*Sennels N. What is Islamization? An attempt at an analysis approach. – 2011. [Electronic resource] URL: http://gabblgob.livejoumal.com/665205.html.
**Belgarokova N. M. Islamization of Russia - realities and prospects. [Electronic resource] URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/islamizatsiya-rossii-realii-i-perspektivy.
***Demographic development of Russia: trends, forecasts, measures. National demographic report - 2020 / S. V. Ryazantsev, V. N. Arkhangelsky, O. D. Vorobyova [etc.]; Rep. ed. S. V. Ryazantsev. – M.: United Edition LLC, 2020.