The Central Bank of the Russian Federation raised the key rate by 2 percent at once

At today's meeting, the Central Bank of Russia once again raised the discount rate. True, for many experts, as well as for Russian business, this measure turned out to be somewhat unexpected.

The thing is that on the eve of today's meeting, expert opinions were divided. Some believed that the Central Bank would raise the key rate, but by a maximum of 1% - from 13% to 14%. Others even believed that the indicator would remain at the same level, since the ruble exchange rate began to stabilize after the introduction of the rule of mandatory sale of part of foreign currency earnings for exporters.

Meanwhile, the regulator today decided to increase the rate by 2%. Now this figure is 15%, which caused some shock in the financial markets.

So, immediately after the announcement of the Central Bank’s decision, the Moscow Exchange index literally “flew” down.

This is explained by the fact that many exporting companies do not benefit from a sharp strengthening of the ruble. In addition, an increase in the key rate also negatively affects the economy as a whole, as interest rates for business lending also increase.

In turn, the ruble, as expected, strengthened against the backdrop of the regulator’s decision and is now trading below 93 per dollar.

The Bank of Russia explained this radical decision by the continued increase in inflationary pressure. Thus, in the third quarter, price growth was 12,1% annualized. At the same time, annual inflation is now expected to reach 7-7,5%, which exceeds the September and October forecasts of the Central Bank of 6% and 6,6%, respectively.

As a result, as stated by the leadership of the Central Bank, in order to return the inflation rate to the planned 4-4,5% in 2024, additional tightening of monetary policy is required.

Comments

[Proton]

So the stranglehold on the Russian economy has tightened even more.
With such “cheap” loans, only the business of selling drugs, medicines and weapons can develop stably.
Separately, I was “pleased” by the Central Bank’s forecast for annual inflation at the level of 7÷7,5%. I can recommend that top managers and Elvira Saphidzadovna (forgive me, Lord) go to stores more often and see from their own personal experience that they are a little cunning. But what am I talking about? These are people without conscience and reproach.

[Silver99]

The Central Banks are simply unsuitable for professionalism, the simplest thing is to tighten all the screws, but the economy will simply stop, did anyone talk about affordable housing? Forget it! Purchasing the domestic auto industry? Forget it! Development of small business and private sector? Forget it! Development of the military-industrial complex and science? Forget it!........

[Escariot]

Quote from Silver99

The Central Banks are simply unsuitable for professionalism, the simplest thing is to tighten all the screws, but the economy will simply stop, did anyone talk about affordable housing? Forget it! Purchasing the domestic auto industry? Forget it! Development of small business and private sector? Forget it! Development of the military-industrial complex and science? Forget it!........

Do you think accelerating inflation is better? Prices are already rising by leaps and bounds.

[Alexey Tlt]

Inflation is due to the fact that Russia supplied products worth 60 lard dollars to India, and received goods worth 6 lard from India. 50 yards were not sold because the rupee is not a convertible currency.
The USA turned out to be in profit. And this is just one example of how the US benefits from its volute.

[PROVINCIAL]

Funny. Why should the economy stop? Is it expensive for a business to take out a loan? Why does a business need a loan? Does this mean the business is unprofitable and does not make a profit? There are special subsidy programs for small businesses. On housing - make a zero rate? Is there so much supply on the housing market? And the cost per square meter will shoot into the stratosphere. The same goes for the auto industry. Speaking about unsuitability, you need to have basic knowledge of economics. The military-industrial complex and state programs will receive their loans at the required interest rate, no doubt. Everything is being done correctly - there are no own funds, there is no point in taking out a loan. Inflating financial bubbles does not lead to good; it is worth remembering the story of Lehman Brothers bank in 2008 and what it led to.

[alystan]

Central Banks are simply unsuitable for professionalism

Somehow you protect them a little pitifully.
In my opinion, Sakhipzadovna is the real enemy.
It’s not clear why she gets away with everything?
At such a time, the Supreme Commander would have to send everyone like her in formation to uproot the stumps with his hands.

[keleg]

Hm, why is the economy growing if it’s a “noose”? Heavy-duty truck sales, a reliable sign of investment, are the highest in 23 years in '15.

[thrush68]

“Thank you” to our central bank drivers. Life will become easier.

[Amateur]

The state is not liable for the obligations of the Bank of Russia, and the Bank of Russia - for the obligations of the state, if they have not assumed such obligations or unless otherwise provided by federal laws.
(Budget Code of the Russian Federation (BC RF)), developed on the basis of Article 75 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation and the Federal Law "On the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia)" dated July 10.07.2002, 86 N XNUMX-FZ

Translated "to understandable" this means that the Bank of Russia does not belong to Russia, but Nabiulina & Co. they can “have” Russia as they want and at the same time will not be held responsible for their actions.

[Escariot]

Quote: Amateur

The state is not liable for the obligations of the Bank of Russia, and the Bank of Russia - for the obligations of the state, if they have not assumed such obligations or unless otherwise provided by federal laws.
(Budget Code of the Russian Federation (BC RF)), developed on the basis of Article 75 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation and the Federal Law "On the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia)" dated July 10.07.2002, 86 N XNUMX-FZ

Translated "to understandable" this means that the Bank of Russia does not belong to Russia, but Nabiulina & Co. they can “have” Russia as they want and at the same time will not be held responsible for their actions.

The General Director of the Bank of Russia is appointed by the State Duma on the recommendation of the President of the Russian Federation. So we can say that the Bank of Russia belongs to the ruling Party and the President personally.

[rocket757]

We did...what happened in the end???
The inflation rate is not a fact that it will decrease noticeably, and will it decrease at all????
Currency speculation... the crazy people there will have “theirs” differently and hardly less.
The economy in the state is again in... it is known where and there are no prospects for getting out of there.
About citizens... in general, as always. The rich are still in chocolate, and the rest are where they always were.
Conclusion... what can I say, pee pee...........!

[Gomunkul]

Inflation rate

Below are the reasons that provoke inflation:

The main causes of inflation include the following factors:
- reduction in gross domestic product (GDP) with a constant volume of money supply in circulation
- growth of government spending due to emissions
- excessive expansion of lending volumes to companies and individuals
- monopoly in the economy, when large firms have the opportunity to determine the cost of their products and costs

Of all the listed points, in my opinion, the driver of inflation in the Russian Federation is monopoly. And Russian Railways is the first of the monopolies to increase prices for its services, followed by all the others.

[rocket757]

No one has yet defeated inflation by raising the key rate... and we don’t have hyperinflation to start putting pressure on everything at once.
By the way, monopolization and, accordingly, inflating prices for its products and services... only... the STATE can fight against this.
Not like ours, not with the same people at the top, alas.
Listing the nuances, various problems, who serves whom, works for whom... is boring, and it won’t change anything.

[al3x]

And these people tell us about the dying economies of the West... Where key rates are several times lower. 3-4 times, to be more precise.

[Ross xnumx]

The Bank of Russia explained this radical decision by the continued increase in inflationary pressure.

Who is driving up inflation? Financial speculators who need dollars (currency) to live abroad. It's time to stop this bacchanalia.
1. Remove Nabiullina and conduct an audit of her property.
2. Direct all foreign exchange earnings to the country, and not into the pockets of shareholders.
3. Introduce a 50% tax on the withdrawal of finances from the country, eliminate offshore companies and introduce a progressive personal income tax scale.
4. It's time to start comparing the expenses of the bourgeoisie with their declared income.
* * *
We don’t have enough external enemies, they also choke us inside...
In any case, it’s time to lift the moratorium on the death penalty...

[vovochkarzhevsky]

It's time to stop this bacchanalia.
1. Remove Nabiullina and conduct an audit of her property.
2. Direct all foreign exchange earnings to the country, and not into the pockets of shareholders.
3. Introduce a 50% tax on the withdrawal of finances from the country, eliminate offshore companies and introduce a progressive personal income tax scale.
4. It's time to start comparing the expenses of the bourgeoisie with their declared income.
* * *
We don’t have enough external enemies, they also choke us inside...
In any case, it’s time to lift the moratorium on the death penalty...

And who will carry out these activities?

[al3x]

Quote: vovochkarzhevsky

And who will carry out these activities?

Naturally no one. Bees against honey... Yeah, shazzz.

[tkoh]

Quote: ROSS 42

Who is driving up inflation? Financial speculators who need dollars (currency) to live abroad. It's time to stop this bacchanalia.
1. Remove Nabiullina and conduct an audit of her property.
2. Direct all foreign exchange earnings to the country, and not into the pockets of shareholders.
3. Introduce a 50% tax on the withdrawal of finances from the country, eliminate offshore companies and introduce a progressive personal income tax scale.
4. It's time to start comparing the expenses of the bourgeoisie with their declared income.

Look at Turkey. There, too, the corrupt ignoramuses were removed from their Central Bank and the leader of the nation personally took charge of the finances. Compared to Turkey, in the Russian Federation the ruble itself is stable and inflation is within the margin of error

[16112014nk]

Quote: Proton

Elvira Saphidzadovnot ...go to the shops more often

She doesn't go to stores. These citizens live on another planet.

[Got it]

Figures from the financial and economic bloc should have been sitting on finishing work, as they say, for a long time, but they are calmly finishing off the economy.

[Vladimir Anatolyevich]

15 + 7,5-8% = 22,5-23% + minimum 5% margin for the bank = 27,5-28%...for business, loans from commerce will be from 30%....for the population even higher. ...and haven’t you tried investing in the real sector of the economy???...although what am I talking about, for this you need to have brains and work....who needs this? - a rhetorical question! The market will decide everything: who fits in and who doesn’t...! IMHO: a dual-circuit financial system is necessary... everything new is well forgotten old!

[pettabyte]

You know, loans are loans.
But simple Vasyan is not amused by the fact that electronics/other things are becoming more expensive by leaps and bounds because of the ruble exchange rate.
I would propose a reendum, just see how many will choose a 50% rate but an inexpensive ruble.
And for development (by investing the country in itself), they, the leaders, had funds, but they kept them as tribute in the USA (those same “confiscated”)...

[Jacques sekavar]

In an interview yesterday regarding his attitude to the new budget, the head of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation said that the wealth of 25 oligarchs exceeds the state budget by a billion and fantasized about measures to level out the glaring imbalance.
Without raising the status of the center for strategic research to the rank of State Planning Committee, introducing a state monopoly on foreign trade, subordinating the main bank to the Ministry of Economy and introducing a two-tier financial system, the fifth column will stubbornly and consistently lead to the undermining of the economy and the collapse of the Russian Federation

[nikniknik]

to the wall without trial or investigation and Nabiullin and the board of directors as foreign agents carrying out subversive activities of the Russian economy - traitors to the Motherland. It has always been clear that low interest rates stimulate economic growth and development, but this madam keeps shouting that demand in Russia is high, but production is not enough, and that’s why there is inflation. There are no normal words about this financial crap.

[dump22]

to the wall without trial and Nabiullina and the board of directors

And the one who appointed them should be understood and forgiven?

http://www.constitution.ru/10003000/10003000-6.htm

CONSTITUTION
Article 83
President of Russian Federation:
...
d) submits to the State Duma a candidate for appointment to the post of Chairman of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation; puts before the State Duma the issue of dismissal of the Chairman of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation;

[pettabyte]

You can also go to the wall.
Only those who raised the ruble exchange rate (in order to sell there for a dollar and then eat on the inflated rubles) - too.
And then the question of privatizers will arise.
Oh, we accidentally dug under the constitutional system and the bonds that were hung on us in the 90s. We are walking on very thin ice...

[tkoh]

Quote: nikniknik

to the wall without trial or investigation and Nabiullin and the board of directors as foreign agents carrying out subversive activities of the Russian economy - traitors to the Motherland.

God forbid they remove Nabiullina. The nineties will seem like paradise then

[Alexey Tlt]

The United States is strengthening its institutions of power in Russia.

[dump22]

Raising the rate is just a small thing.
In the near future, according to the Central Bank’s forecast, everything will be quite sad:

https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/10/27/tsb-prizval-gotovitsya-k-novim-sanktsiyami-razgonu-inflyatsii-i-stagnatsii-ekonomiki-a111512

The Central Bank urged to prepare for new sanctions, accelerated inflation and economic stagnation

This is the updated forecast of the Bank of Russia, published on Friday following the meeting of the board of directors, where the Central Bank rate was increased for the fourth time in a row - to 15% per annum.

Russian citizens will again have to “tighten their belts,” as follows from the Central Bank’s forecast: private consumption volumes in 2024 may decrease by 1-2% and, in a pessimistic scenario, will not return to the level of the current year even in 2026.

[pettabyte]

For many exporting companies, the sharp strengthening of the ruble is unprofitable

That is, they send tribute to foreign countries for free, and let’s say at 60 dollars - they are deeply unprofitable (and at 30 - they will hang themselves)?
What kind of “effective owners” they are, it’s simple!
The question arises: are such defective owners needed at all?