The situation around Syria, in the opinion of many, is nearing its climax. In the West and in Israel they openly started talking about the imminent "end of the game." Nobody even considers any peace initiatives by Bashar al-Assad, like the one he launched at the beginning of 2013, rejecting it from the threshold. All that is required of him is the resignation and transfer of power of the part of the opposition supported by the West. Signs of imminent foreign military intervention in the Syrian conflict are becoming increasingly visible.According to Israeli media reports, major air force exercises from various countries of the world are being held in Israel. Over 100 combat aircraft participate in them. Practiced bombing and air combat techniques. The pilots and their cars arrived in Israel a few days ago. They will study all possible scenarios for the development of events in Syria, including actions against the Syrian chemical arsenal. The forces of rapid deployment are being brought to the border with Jordan, the Army Radio of Israel reports. "The reason is the civil war in Syria and its possible splash on neighboring Jordan." (1) Prior to this, Israeli Prime Minister B. Netanyahu and King Abdullah II of Jordan held a secret meeting, the Haaretz newspaper reported, at which they discussed possible joint measures against Syria.
With reference to Western intelligence sources, the Israeli analytical center DEBKA reported that “on the eve of the joint American-Israeli operation in Syria to protect (?) The Golan Heights,” IDF representatives (the Israeli army) and “Syrian rebel commanders” held secret talks in Jordan. (2) In fact, as the site close to the Israeli military circles reports, "night battles" are already unfolding in Syria between its troops, on the one hand, and opposition forces, as well as special forces of the United States, Israel and Jordan, on the other hand, "Observation posts" in the border sectors. From these points, marking of all significant military and civilian objects is carried out for the possible future conduct of large-scale hostilities.
According to the Pentagon, the region had previously had the necessary resources for a possible attack, including NATO bases in Turkey and other forces. Now reinforcements are tightened: the aircraft carrier Eisenhower has approached the shores of Syria, in the zone of increased attention plying up to 20 warships carrying aircraft, helicopters and about 10 thousand troops. On top of that, NATO Patriot batteries continue to arrive in Turkey. In Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates, there are also forces that can be connected to a military operation at any time. Not long ago, the US military estimated that in order to "take control of the Syrian chemical weapons”(Read: the overthrow of B. Assad) will require at least 75 thousand people. Now we are already talking about the possibility of a longer ground operation, the purpose of which will be “to ensure peace after the fall of the regime” (read: creating an administration loyal to Washington). (3)
The possible reasons for the intervention, besides the scenario that has already been played out for several months, of the need to prevent the Syrian authorities from using chemical and bacteriological weapons or falling into the hands of extremists, have recently been added to Iraq’s reasoning about the dangers of the proliferation of nuclear technologies and Al-Qaida’s rooting ".
So, American experts suddenly expressed concern about the safety of 50 tons of unenriched uranium, allegedly located in Syria. David Albright, a US expert on international security and nuclear weapons, said: "There are concerns about the fate of the particular uranium that Syria planned to use for the Al-Kibar reactor. And the longer the civil war goes on, the more fears this problem causes ". No special evidence in favor of the presence of this uranium, besides unenriched, is not given. This reactor, if built, then due to the Israeli bombardment of 2007, the year has never been completed. Meanwhile, David Albre Ayt referred to the fact that, judging by the photos, the Syrians built powerful fortifications around a secret facility in Marge Sultan near Damascus, from which "it can be concluded that there may be" something "that they are determined to hide from the rebels" Such “arguments” invariably resemble the well-known, never-confirmed, but cited as “deadly” argument in favor of aggression in Iraq by the top US leadership of a fake purchase by Saddam Hussein of about the same amount of uranium in Niger. After all, they don’t even strain themselves, although they themselves criticized Bush for “simplistic”. (4)
With regard to the presence of al-Qaeda in Syria, witness authority was granted to Israeli Prime Minister B. Netanyah, who announced at a meeting of the Israeli government 6 in January: “We know that the Syrian army left today on the other side of the border in Syria and The forces of global jihad have advanced. We coordinate our actions and share intelligence information with the Americans. In this area, we must be prepared for any scenario. ”One of the Al Qaeda strongholds, according to Israeli data, was, in particular, the ruins of Quneitra, located between the occupied Golan Heights and Damascus . and left in this form as a monument).
Although the Americans and their allies, on the one hand, by inertia reproduce the approaches used still in Iraq, on the other - they are still trying to learn from the negative experience gained there and bring tactical diversity into their actions. At the same time, at the moment they have set themselves a double task - not only to achieve the earliest elimination of B. Assad from power, but also not to allow the forces that are not satisfied with them from among tough nationalists and Islamic radicals to come to his place. Realizing that time does not work for them, because on the battlefield, as usual, extreme elements, rather than the liberal intelligentsia, sympathizing with the West, usually will not be delayed with the operation.
In addition, it appears that at the end of the past - at the beginning of the coming year, there was a definite consensus of the West and Sunni regimes hostile to Iran, such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, that the “problem of Tehran” should be resolved in stages. According to this plan, the main task of the first stage would be to deprive Iran of its allies in the person of Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon. According to plans, in this case, Tehran’s ability to influence the Middle East situation would be significantly weakened. And then the Iranians should have been exhausted by sanctions, which would have allowed to avoid a really big, with serious global complications of the war, which is inevitable in the case of a direct strike against Iran. All this would also seriously weaken the position of Iranian President Ahmadinejad on the eve of the elections to be held in Iran for the post in mid-June 2013. It is assumed that the reproaches addressed to Ahmadinejad in foreign policy failures, coupled with the effect of sanctions, can create favorable conditions for projecting accumulated experience. Arab Spring "on Iranian soil. Given the fact that before that it will be necessary to ensure the consolidation of power in Syria in the “right hands”, there is every reason to assume that a large-scale operation against it will begin no later than March.
This term is also supported by the fact that approximately the middle of March, since the autumn of last year, the largest history in the territory of Israel, joint US-Israeli military exercises (from the US side, up to 20 thousand troops would have to take part in them). An approximate picture of future operations is presented to experts as follows. The 20-thousandth American group under the pretext of controlling chemical and biological weapons, as well as the need to end al-Qaeda, can move in the direction of Damascus. A direct breakthrough from the Golan Heights to Syria is hardly possible, since there are vast minefields there. Therefore, most likely, the Americans from Israel will invade Syria through the territory of Jordan.
The main Israeli forces, which for political reasons are unlikely to openly enter Syria, will probably be assigned the task of neutralizing the Damascus ally, Hezbollah in Lebanon. At the same time, driven by the spirit of revenge for the failures of 2006, the IDF may try to completely destroy Hezbollah’s combat potential, which will inevitably lead to significant destruction and civilian casualties.
The experience of Libya, and now Syria, says that two components will be actively used: air-missile and special forces. At the same time, the latter will apparently be involved on a much larger scale than in Libya, where the British CAC mostly performed the solo. Now, in addition to him, as reported by DEBKA, there are both American “fur seals”, and elite “pseudo-Arabs” (“Mystaravim” - the best of Israeli special forces), and brave lads from Poland and the Czech Republic in the conflict zone ( Carries there?) The task of these units is under the pretext of protecting chemical and bacteriological weapons warehouses from falling into the hands of terrorists or their use by the Syrian authorities against the “population” to ensure corridors for the passage of friendly opposition forces. At the same time, Islamist detachments will be cut off and destroyed so that the Libyan option does not recur.
So roughly looks like the action plan of the “anti-Assad coalition”, if we summarize the many existing plans and statements. All that is missing is an assessment of the consequences of the upcoming adventure for the civilian population of Syria and regional stability. Meanwhile, there is every reason to assume that as a result, the chaos in the region will become even wider, and the disasters of people will be worse, a new long-term focus of ethnic and confessional tension will arise. And it is unlikely to be limited to the borders of Syria alone.
Therefore, the presence in the region is quite appropriate and sobering. flotilla Russian warships carrying on board including marines ... The Sunday Times, which writes about this, quotes a Russian diplomatic source: “Russia must be ready for any scenario.” The Lebanese pro-Syrian newspaper Ad-Diyar, apparently even having exaggerated, hastened to report that an armada of 71 Russian warships, on board of which there are 62 thousand military personnel, was reaching the Syrian coast.
Information agencies, quoting unnamed sources in the Russian Navy, note that the fleet leadership wants the ships to be close to Syria’s coast in case it is needed anyway. It is reported that the time of their stay in Syria will depend on the situation.
(1) http://mignews.ru/news/politic/world
(2) http://www.debka.com
(3) http://www.zman.com/news/2012/12/10/140670.html
(4) http://mignews.ru/news/society/world/090113_93553_98126.html