German military analyst: Avdiivka may repeat the fate of Bakhmut

One of the hottest destinations in the Northeast Military District zone today is Avdeevka (DPR). This settlement has regularly appeared in the media since 2014, since it is from here that the Ukrainian military regularly shells peaceful areas of Donetsk.

At the same time, after the crushing failure of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ counteroffensive, the Russian Armed Forces launched their own offensive. One of the promising areas is Avdeevka, which our military is trying to encircle.

It is worth noting that storming the aforementioned settlement head-on is an almost impossible task. In the eight years preceding the Russian North Military District, the Ukrainian army turned Avdiivka into an impregnable fortress with concrete shelters, underground passages and carefully equipped combat positions.

Now almost every day there are reports of Russian fighters advancing in the vicinity of Avdeevka. Some Russian media are already writing that the settlement has been placed in a ring of fire, and Western media are calling the current offensive by the Russian Armed Forces one of the largest operations since last spring.

In turn, military analyst Yu. Repke, in an article for the German newspaper Bild (the publication’s website is blocked by the RKN due to violations of Russian legislation), writes that Avdeevka faces the fate of Bakhmut (Artemovsk).

According to the expert, despite the fact that the response actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have so far stopped the offensive impulse of the Russian Armed Forces near Severny and on the railway line in Stepovoy, the Russian army in this direction is attacking with large forces, and in the future the Avdeevka defense will be broken.

Comments

[Lev_Russia]

“It can’t”, but will repeat the fate of Bakhmut...
Yes, let it be hard for us now
But still we win
And to spite all your enemies,
We fight and liberate...!!!
APU Bakhmut is not needed -
So now the clown says...
And we don't need Bakhmut here,
But let Artyomovsk stand!!!

[Orange Bigg]

Already repeating.
TG channel Two Majors writes.Quote.
Avdeevskoe direction:
“Around Avdeevka. The Ukrainians burned a lot of our armor, but we didn’t burn anything because they stupidly don’t have it there. So, the idea of ​​the enemy’s 50 tanks and 100 infantry fighting vehicles was simply made up. But we destroyed a lot of enemy manpower on the march from the reserves that they hastily pulled up the covers.

Our reconnaissance, as well as artillery and aviators, worked very well. Of course, there are no battles for the coke plant and the dump; ours have rolled away and are being secured along the line of the iron.

Well, in the south they haven’t made much progress at all. But in general, the operation can be recorded as a plus, because in the north our positions have directly improved significantly, there was actually only one supply road left in the Avdeevsky fortification, and they lured and pulled away many Ukrainian reserves from other places, plus they crushed a lot of them."

Map as of 13.10.2023/XNUMX/XNUMX from Bild. Front lines are indicated by yellow lines. Right now it has not changed

Ibid.
Avdeevskoe direction, opinion from the front:

“I’m reading the news now and I don’t understand where the ideas come from that the offensive turned out to be a “failure”?

With the help of the 114th brigade, the waste heap in the KHZ area was taken under control, which gives a huge advantage for reconnaissance and more. No one will put artillery on it, as armchair experts think, because this is a disastrous undertaking that will entail large losses.

How could we lose so many tanks?
Almost all the structures of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the directions of Donetsk are underground + this is a plain that is perfectly covered by our tanks from afar, the fortifications are stormed only by infantry with the support of artillery, so that ours can come much closer to the position. That is why difficulties arise, because it is up to us to break through all these fortifications is categorically not profitable, and it sounds like science fiction. The success of the offensive is shown from the village’s perspective. Krasnohorivka towards Berdychi, where there are no fortified structures 12 meters underground, where every centimeter is filled with concrete, and on top there is a small hill of earth, like in the Donetsk direction.

Every 100 meters covered in the Experienced/Vodyany direction is a huge victory.
And most importantly - the waste heap.
Now our guys need to gain a foothold in positions, and reconnaissance needs to identify the remaining ammunition depots and track the delivery of new units of equipment/ammunition/provisions and destroy them. Monitor every rotation and exit of the enemy from positions and prevent any withdrawal of Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel. The goals are clear, the goals are adequate, remains It’s only a matter of time. And you should forget about the cauldron for the near future if you don’t want to see a bloody meat grinder of our guys.”

The faint of heart do not read.
Analyst Tom Cooper about the assault on Avdiivka.
https://urb-a.livejournal.com/22466612.html

[Lech from Android.]

According to the expert, despite the fact that the response actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have so far stopped the offensive impulse of the Russian Armed Forces near Severny and on the railway line in Stepovoy, the Russian army in this direction is attacking with large forces, and in the future the Avdeevka defense will be broken.

It’s beautifully said, of course... but the reality is a little different. I will not darken the mood of the forum members.

[Leshak]

Quote: Lech from Android.

According to the expert, despite the fact that the response actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have so far stopped the offensive impulse of the Russian Armed Forces near Severny and on the railway line in Stepovoy, the Russian army in this direction is attacking with large forces, and in the future the Avdeevka defense will be broken.

It’s beautifully said, of course... but the reality is a little different. I will not darken the mood of the forum members.

And it’s clear that not everything is rosy there (since Avdeevka is practically not mentioned in the reports). The surprise factor passed, the Ukrainian Armed Forces came to their senses and the movement ended. Now the question is: will ours roll back or will we be able to gain a foothold and expand the breakthrough zones.

[carpenter]

Quote: Leshak

And it’s clear that not everything is rosy there (since Avdeevka is practically not mentioned in the reports).

The Russian army is conducting small offensive operations along the entire front line in order to wear down the enemy and stretch his reserves. Ukraine’s response was the conscription of women for military service, as well as a landing operation in the Kherson region, which should reverse the negative counter-offensive trend in the Ukrainian media.

[Orange Bigg]

What is there to darken? They did not take into account the unsuccessful experience of the assault on Vugledar. We went to attack in columns. And everything was clear there. Well, nevertheless, Avdeevka is in the bag. So this is far from the same situation as in Ugledar. They essentially tried to storm Ugledar head-on, but here along the flanks. But also minefields and there are a lot of support players who need to be taken step by step, like in Mariupol.

[dmi.pris1]

About 12 meters underground, I smiled. It’s like about ten-story bunkers under Azovstal..

[Uprun]

Well, why, in the ZabVO fortified areas consisted of such structures, a DFS (long-term fortification structure), which is occupied by an OPULAB company (a separate machine-gun and artillery battalion), and around there are NTOT (fixed tank firing points) - towers from the IS-3. There was something similar here, it was time. We had a DB barracks - in a hill there was a box for 3 tanks, a guardhouse, a canteen, etc., a diesel engine. everything is underground, an underground passage to the OP, and there is 100 m and a control post on the reverse slope of the mountain + tank trenches with a reserve firing position.

[dmi.pris1]

I know what a fortified area is. Well, the pits there are not 12 meters underground. And after the lies about the Azovstal bunkers, I can’t believe it. I’m sure that there are long-term firing points, cut-off positions, etc. But this is all completely different.

[knn54]

The West REALLY needs destruction.

[Sergei Viktorovich Korolev]

Kirdyk crept up unnoticed?!!

[Andrei Nikolaevich]

While the politicians were silent, the Norodians, the “diggers of the seas,” were preparing a fortified area. And now a simple Russian soldier will have to storm.

[Orange Bigg]

More FAB-1500s and sooner or later things will get off the ground.

[dmi.pris1]

Ah! I started hearing about the cowardly Kremlinites in 2014. But if it weren’t for Strelkov and his fighters, then Lugansk and Donetsk would have had to be taken...

[Orange Bigg]

Did you remember about Strelkov? Here is his Zen channel. They also write about Avdeevka.
https://dzen.ru/a/ZS0kByxkPTFHCDF4
https://dzen.ru/id/62d960ee8a00c02c18e48b81

[MinskFox]

If you had moved in 2014, you would definitely have eaten hedgehogs now. Half the sanctions that are imposed now would be enough. Although there is a whole forum of armchair generals and mother’s economists.

[alystan]

Director of the Department for Nonproliferation and Arms Control of the Russian Foreign Ministry Vladimir Ermakov said that Western space satellites used in conflicts could become legitimate targets for retaliatory strikes.

Quasi-civilian infrastructure could logically be a legitimate target for a retaliatory strike. As a result of the actions of Western countries, the sustainability of peaceful space activities, as well as numerous socio-economic processes on Earth, on which the well-being of people, primarily in developing countries, depends, are exposed to unjustified risks.

In September Maxar reported that its commercial satellites imaged Sevastopol twice.
In particular, on September 19, Sevastopol was imaged by the WorldView-3 satellite, and the next day - by WorldView-2. At the time of launch, the satellites had the highest spatial resolution of any commercial satellite, allowing for highly detailed images.
And on September 22, Kyiv launched a missile attack on Sevastopol.

[dmi.pris1]

Do you believe in what this official said? Personally, I think this is a speech for us, internal consumption from those who are really impotent in this matter.

[Normal]

Well, if Repka said something wrong, so be it.

[TermNachTer]

Isn’t this expert’s name Moltke, by any chance, or Clausewitz?))) anyone who knows how to read a map sees that there is only one paved road left and today it has been raining there all day.

[former soldier]

Avdiivka may repeat the fate of Bakhmut

There is no need to repeat the fate of Bakhmut i.e. storm house after house, point after point, losing the precious lives of our attack aircraft.. Cross the supply, at any distance from Avdievka and not sparing art. fire and factories to turn the fortified area into a rubble desert. Living VSU officers will emerge from the dungeons on their own, just like from Azovstal.

[Oleg Apushkin]

I agree with you, everything needs to be leveled with fabs so that they can die under the layers of concrete. And our guys could rest for a couple of days.

[Sasha1979]

"German military analyst: Avdiivka can repeat the fate of Bakhmut." The German analyst seemed to remember the fortified cities of 1943-1945. Experience is experience.

[kill the fascist]

I hope our military will not storm Avdeevka according to Wagner’s scheme in Artemovsk. There will be a lot of losses among our soldiers. Take it into the cauldron, block the supply and slowly hammer away with artillery. During the winter they will either rest or give up.