The head of the DPR announced the consolidation of units of the Russian Armed Forces in the north and south of Avdeevka

Currently, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are successfully advancing in Avdeevka, they have managed to gain a foothold in the north and south of the city. This was stated by the head of the Donetsk People's Republic Denis Pushilin.

According to the head of the Russian region, Russian units are now advancing in Avdeevka from two sides. In fact, a kind of “bag” is being formed in which the Ukrainian troops located in the city will find themselves.

Quite a large number of enemy strongholds have already been destroyed, and warehouses located both in the populated area and at the Avdeevka coke plant have also been destroyed.

- said the head of the DPR RIA News.

Having gained a foothold in the north and south of Avdiivka, our fighters are moving forward, pushing back the Ukrainian militants. According to Pushilin, there is an obvious tendency for Ukrainian forces to retreat from Avdiivka, but for now it is hardly worth saying that the enemy will begin to leave the city in an organized manner.

The head of the DPR believes that everything will ultimately depend on the position of the Ukrainian high command. If the Ukrainian regime approaches the issue of defending Avdiivka as crazy as it does the defense of Artemovsk, then it is possible that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will remain in the city and try to defend it to the end.

But this will ultimately only lead to the destruction of an even larger number of Ukrainian militants in the populated area itself, which is now not entirely suitable for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which are experiencing a shortage of trained personnel and are suffering huge losses in Zaporozhye, South Donetsk, Kupyansk and other directions.

Comments

[Thrifty]

Now everything in the city must be taken under control from the air. It is necessary to massively destroy everything that moves or shoots with capital drones. We need to suppress any activity from the air, more drones, fewer losses on our part!

[novel66]

And don’t forget about Poltoratsky, add it as needed

[suhorukofal]

Yes, nothing moves on the surface, everything is dug in, underground and filled with concrete. There is only aviation there, I am glad that, judging by the reports, it has started to work well there. But given the level of their fortifications, it’s even difficult to imagine how it will be possible to break through all this; I don’t understand anything at all in aviation nomenclature

[Thrifty]

Sukhorukov - if EVERYTHING is underground, then how do they fight? To conduct combat operations you need to see the enemy, but sitting underground you can only see your own death! They fight from trenches, from pillboxes. Drones should fly into the trenches and embrasures of pillboxes, exploding there and killing and maiming everyone who got into the affected area.

[suhorukofal]

Quote: Thrifty

To conduct combat operations you need to see the enemy

There are video cameras all over there, plus a huge number of copters, they have no problems seeing, and there are enough underground passages to move around secretly.

[Poplar]

Quote: suhorukofal

Quote: Thrifty

To conduct combat operations you need to see the enemy

There are video cameras all over there, plus a huge number of copters, they have no problems seeing, and there are enough underground passages to move around secretly.

This is all understandable, of course. It is not clear how they shoot from underground. Explain if you know.

[Nastia makarova]

and think for yourself? if there are cracks and embrasures

[Poplar]

Quote: Nastia Makarova

and think for yourself? if there are cracks and embrasures

Read the comments more carefully. Above, Comrade Lean suggested:

Drones should fly into the trenches and embrasures of pillboxes, exploding there and killing and maiming everyone who got into the affected area.

But his opponent, to whom I addressed the question, writes that this does not work. Hence my interest, but there is no answer.

[suhorukofal]

I'm not answering because the question is strange. I personally can’t even imagine how a drone can fly into an embrasure. In theory, a copter won’t even be able to drop grenades from it, other UAVs have high speeds, you have to be a virtuoso, the loopholes are usually small.

[Andrey “andrewTSO” D]

in aviation nomenclature I generally

Me too. But I would like to attach something like thermobaric ammunition to the plane and cover the whole of Avdiivka with it

[suhorukofal]

Quote: Andrey “andrewTSO” D

I would like to strap something like thermobaric ammunition to the plane

As it happens, this is now being done, apparently the air defense was suppressed or they were transferred from there. Because, judging by the news, the aviation has been ironing for several days, they tried to work from afar, and this way you can’t penetrate the “fat” fortifications.

[Vladimir Mikhalev]

A slab was placed at the entrance and the enemy was blocked. This is not Mariupol with its underground communications and many exits.

[suhorukofal]

Quote: Vladimir Mikhalev

This is not Mariupol with its underground communications and many exits.

How do you imagine transporting the slab through the area under fire? How and on what? The further from the front line, the more experts there are. Do you think people there are stupider than you for bothering for so long?

[Orange Bigg]

Currently, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are successfully advancing in Avdeevka, they have managed to gain a foothold in the north and south of the city. This was stated by the head of the Donetsk People's Republic Denis Pushilin.

That is, they entered Avdiivka itself from the north and south? Do I understand correctly? And how many earlier reports there were about battles for Avdeevka, and then it turned out that at best there were battles on the outskirts of Avdievka.

[sergey_vakk]

Kassad writes that it’s too early to talk about progress at all, fighting is going on, the Ukrainians are receiving reinforcements and counterattacking. And from Pushilin we have been hearing these routine phrases for a year and a half.

[Orange Bigg]

According to reports from the field, on the second day of the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces, “cleansing of the nearby territories began, “ours are in no hurry, equipment and infantry are working.”

“The waste heap (the dump of the Avdeevka Coke and Chemical Plant, AKHZ) is under Russian control, but, as it turned out, the underground passages are very large and soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are still hiding there. Assault units are carrying out a clean-up,” writes Avdeevka. Ru.

[Slon1978]

Who are you listening to? Pushilina? Let me remind you that Pushilin is a politician. Having a very indirect relation to military operations in general and inclined towards PR in particular. The same Pushilin who six months ago promised to take Marinka “in the next few days.” Therefore, you can trust news that has been verified for at least 3 days. So as not to be disappointed. Now there is information that ours have reached the eastern outskirts of Berdichi, but the configuration of this breakthrough is such that our nearest flank attack may well be forced to retreat. Therefore, this “news” has not yet turned into a “fact”. And about entering Avdeevka - this is generally wishful thinking.

[igorbrsv]

Berdichi wrote to go around to the north

[Nastia makarova]

nothing moves on the ground, everything happens underground

[suhorukofal]

That's absolutely right. Firstly, there are still communication routes left from the mines, plus since 2014 they have not only dug in, everything is in concrete, the passages are all closed from observation. It’s only to local experts that everything seems so simple, like they’ve been fiddling around there for so long. There is such a defense there that I’m generally surprised how ours are advancing.

[suhorukofal]

That's absolutely right. Firstly, there are still communication routes left from the mines, plus since 2014 they have not only dug in, everything is in concrete, the passages are all closed from observation. It’s only to local experts that everything seems so simple, like they’ve been fiddling around there for so long. There is such a defense there that I’m generally surprised how ours are advancing.

[syabroleonid]

First of all, we need to try to take the supply routes of the Avdeevka group under fire control. The military understands this better than us. Since they decided to lay out so many shells on Avdeevka, it means the decision to eliminate this ledge has already been made.

[Andrei from Chelyabinsk]

Either we surround (which is correct), then we squeeze out (which is completely wrong)...

[Whip]

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

Either we surround (which is correct), then we squeeze out (which is completely wrong) (which is completely wrong)

We are squeezing out for the purpose of encirclement, most likely.
And in order to judge what is right and what is wrong, we must have reliable and detailed information about where we are extruding from and where.

[Andrei from Chelyabinsk]

Quote: Whip

We are squeezing out for the purpose of encirclement, most likely.

Did you understand what you wrote?

[Whip]

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

Did you understand what you wrote?

Of course I understood
To capture territory occupied by the enemy, you need to either destroy or push out the enemy in this territory,
To encircle Kyiv, for example, you need to squeeze out (or destroy) the enemy from the territory around Kyiv,
After squeezing out (or destroying) the enemy from the territory around Kyiv, Kyiv will be surrounded, but Bandera’s supporters may still remain in Kyiv itself.

-So it’s clearer about squeezing?

[Andrei from Chelyabinsk]

Stanislav... You are now, excuse me... carrying this.
Firstly, the destruction of enemy troops is more important than the capture of geographical points. This is one of the fundamental rules of war.
Secondly, the most effective way to destroy enemy troops is encirclement, since the enemy, located in a cauldron and deprived of supplies, a priori cannot fight at full strength.
Therefore, the success of an operation to encircle the enemy is determined precisely by how many enemy troops will be “in the bag”, in the encircled territory, in relation to the total number of troops located in this territory at the beginning of the operation.
Every, I emphasize, every enemy soldier who was able to avoid encirclement and get out of the cauldron before it closed is a success for the enemy.
Therefore, the thesis “squeezing out for the purpose of encirclement” is completely delusional from a military point of view.
So clearer?

[suhorukofal]

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

The destruction of enemy troops is more important than the capture of geographical points.

A very good point, because there are a lot of sofa experts who like to giggle at the fact that we cannot take some small settlements with a gallant cavalry attack. I saw how they took it, then, however, they couldn’t even take their two hundredths from there

[Whip]

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

Now, excuse me... you are carrying this...

Out of eleven tons of explanations of why I was wrong, I still didn’t understand what I was wrong about.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

Therefore, the thesis “squeezing out for the purpose of encirclement” is completely delusional from a military point of view

Initially, I tried to explain what the word “extrusion” means, depending on the direction, method of extrusion, etc. you can describe the various actions of the military.
Journalists usually use words heard from the original source, most likely the original source used the following term (squeezing).

And the word thesis is completely out of place here; in my opinion, this is an example of a discrepancy between the words used and the meaning.

But I’m more dissatisfied with the fact that commentators imagine that they understand the situation near Avdiivka better than the command on the spot,
And what is better to do with the Ukrainians: squeeze them out or cut them out.

[Andrei from Chelyabinsk]

Quote: Whip

Initially, I tried to explain what the word “extrusion” means, depending on the direction, method of extrusion, etc. you can describe the various actions of the military.

Which fit extremely poorly with environmental operations. Which is sad.

Quote: Whip

But I’m more dissatisfied with the fact that commentators imagine that they understand the situation near Avdiivka better than the command on the spot,

I’m not a couturier by any means, but I can understand whether a suit is well made or not. And I’m not a dentist, but if after treatment the tooth continues to hurt, then something went wrong. Sorry, but we have been waging war for two years now, and there is no end in sight. Therefore, doubts about those in charge are more than justified

[Whip]

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

We have been waging war for the second year now, and there is no end in sight

Most likely, it is still important to have a comprehensive impact on the source of our problems (the West),
It was said that there is no goal to win in Ukraine with lightning speed; when playing the long game, Russia has an advantage,
Just like the West has run out of artillery ammunition, they will rush to produce them, energy and other resources will be needed, prices for everything will rise, the industry of Europe will degrade due to high prices for resources, and this will take time,
It takes time to “squeeze out” the hostile population from the territory of Ukraine (they will flee to the west),
Etc. everything takes time.
Of course, our people are dying, but the other option is even worse, it has already been voiced by Western politicians - “the economically viable population of Russia is 15 million people,” the rest of the Russians are superfluous, and the West will not stop, it’s either us or them.
Plus, there is an opinion that the Americans are preparing a big global scam to clear their debt to zero.
Russia has already carried out a “training” partial mobilization, industry has taken a war footing,
Now there is an intensive fencing off of the Russian economy from the world economy, in case everything in the world collapses and ours will be better than the rest.
The one who will survive is the one who has the resources (not paper resources) and who can protect and use these resources; Russia has everything for such a victory.

[Andrei from Chelyabinsk]

Quote: Whip

Most likely, it is still important to have a comprehensive impact on the source of our problems (the West),
It was said that there is no goal to win in Ukraine with lightning speed; when playing the long game, Russia has an advantage,

Doesn't have it. Just the prolongation of the war is our next epic failure, or a complete failure, if you like.

Quote: Whip

Just like the West has run out of artillery ammunition, they will rush to produce them, energy and other resources will be needed, prices for everything will rise, the industry of Europe will degrade due to high prices for resources, and this will take time,

Not at all. Artillery ammunition is depleted, Americans resume production, receive an increase in industrial production, new jobs, taxes are paid on all this (that is, part of the costs returns to the budget), profits from fulfilling orders strengthen industry, and all this strengthens their economy in the same way as deindustrialization weakens her.

Quote: Whip

It takes time to “squeeze out” the hostile population from the territory of Ukraine (they will flee to the west),

Quite the opposite - delaying the military action leads to the fact that people loyal to us, doomed to live in war for a long time, lose this very loyalty and no longer want to see us. That is, we are losing a loyal population.

Quote: Whip

Of course our people are dying, but the other option is even worse, it has already been voiced by Western politicians

There was a third option - to prepare normal aircraft and smash the APU in three to four months. The only correct one, by the way. Alas, the country’s leadership failed to cope with the modernization of the armed forces (as well as with many other tasks), although they had both time and money for this.

Quote: Whip

Plus, there is an opinion that the Americans are preparing a big global scam to clear their debt to zero.

They don’t need to do this and there’s no reason to

Quote: Whip

Now there is an intensive fencing off of the Russian economy from the world economy, in case everything in the world collapses and ours will be better than the rest.

In reality, we have the following - since the West sent us with forests, we stand with an outstretched hand and a low bent back in front of India and China, so that they buy our oil/gas at least at some price and do not close the “back passage” for “parallel imports” ". And the Russian economy, no matter how self-sufficient it was, remains so, but there are fewer opportunities to make up for this lack of opportunity, and India and China have every opportunity to twist our arms.

Quote: Whip

The one who will survive is the one who has the resources (not paper resources) and who can protect and use these resources; Russia has everything for such a victory.

You are terribly far from the people :)))))

[Sergey Zhikharev]

What then does the leadership of the Russian Federation hope (plan?) for?
- For a “just world”, that the West itself will surrender Ukraine?
- continuation of yours as attributing all problems and miscalculations to the operation?

[Andrei from Chelyabinsk]

Quote: Sergey Zhikharev

What then does the leadership of the Russian Federation hope (plan?) for?

I’m afraid that the leadership of the Russian Federation itself does not know this. Usually in such cases it pretends to be calm and waits until it somehow resolves itself. Quite serious measures have been taken to strengthen the ground forces, but will this be enough? If a radical change does not occur in the next couple of months, then we can safely say that no.

[Whip]

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

Doesn't have it. Just the prolongation of the war is our next epic failure, or a complete failure, if you like.

I say that time will tell
While we see a gradual change in Western rhetoric regarding Ukraine, there is less mention of Ukraine in the Western media, Western politicians are beginning to “forget” about Ukraine,
All for a combination of reasons - resource prices are rising, production is falling, but at the same time costs are rising, including in Ukraine.
And the main thing is that the “Ukraine” project did not live up to expectations and will be curtailed.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

Not at all. Artillery ammunition is depleted, Americans resume production, receive an increase in industrial production, new jobs, taxes are paid on all this (that is, part of the costs returns to the budget), profits from fulfilling orders strengthen industry, and all this strengthens their economy in the same way as deindustrialization weakens her.

Not at all. Production in Europe is falling, this is a fact, production in the USA due to military orders has just stopped falling,
But the US national debt is growing at record speed,
And Western politicians are only trying to pretend that everything is fine with them.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

Quite the opposite - delaying the military action leads to the fact that people loyal to us, doomed to live in war for a long time, lose this very loyalty and no longer want to see us. That is, we are losing a loyal population.

I personally don’t need loyal Galkin (foreign agent) and Pugacheva (foreign agent) in Russia at all.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

There was a third option - to prepare normal aircraft and smash the APU in three to four months. The only correct one, by the way. Alas, the country’s leadership failed to cope with the modernization of the armed forces (as well as with many other tasks), although they had both time and money for this.

-Are there any armed forces that are more normal than the RF Armed Forces?
An example to the studio please (except for the US).

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

In reality, we have the following - since the West sent us with forests, we stand with an outstretched hand and a low bent back in front of India and China, so that they buy our oil/gas at least at some price and do not close the “back passage” for “parallel imports” ". And the Russian economy, no matter how self-sufficient it was, remains so, but there are fewer opportunities to make up for this lack of opportunity, and India and China have every opportunity to twist our arms.

It's not like that at all, and it's the other way around,
Just as the West sent us, so we sent the West,
Now they will be on their own, and we will be on our own.
India may be trying to use the chance to make money, but nothing more, we are not losing in price, India is making money by raising prices for Europe.
China is generally our strategic partner, because... it is known that the United States planned to deal with China after we were crushed, but it didn’t work out,
China understands this and supports us as best it can, except that it doesn’t supply shells for decency’s sake.
Our emphasis is on increasing technological independence from everything and everyone, even from China, and all this gives results,
Critical and simply important technologies and products are actively being replaced by imports.

I'm not interested anymore
When the method of denying everything and everyone without evidence is used,
Simply flooding the interlocutor with arbitrary reasoning in order to overload, to wear out.
This is the kind of talk that ciphers and foreign agents have (everything is bad in Russia, everything is lost).
We have opposite points of view.

[Whip]

Quote: Whip

I'm not interested anymore

But we'll have to talk
she won't refute herself

[Whip]

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

There was a third option - to prepare normal aircraft and smash the APU in three to four months. The only correct one, by the way. Alas, the country’s leadership failed to cope with the modernization of the armed forces (as well as with many other tasks), although they had both time and money for this.

Our armed forces were and are very normal, and will be even better,
The armed forces are built in proportion to the threats, existing and predicted, but we are not currently building the armed forces to repel attacks from Mars.
At that time (several years ago) everyone hoped that everything would be “peace, friendship, chewing gum”, they believed the fairy tales about the Minsk agreements,
Previously, we tried to be friends with the West, we wanted to become part of this West (hence the pension reform and Chubais in the government and sometimes monetary and financial policy was carried out with an eye to the West), but it didn’t work out, the West had other plans for us,
Russia did not agree with these plans, then Russia said a decisive no (in Ukraine),
As a result, we have what we have today.
So far your argument looks like this - it was necessary to build armed forces to defeat Ukraine, the USA, and all other galaxies.
All of Ukraine is now getting what they asked for, the United States is trying to find a way out of this situation, and in order to shift attention from Ukraine, they have set the Middle East on fire.

[Andrei from Chelyabinsk]

Quote: Whip

But we'll have to talk
she won't refute herself

(chuckling good-naturedly), well, so far your conversations demonstrate your ignorance of the topic on the one hand, and the desire to blab questions that are uncomfortable for you, on the other.

Quote: Whip

All for a combination of reasons - resource prices are rising, production is falling, but at the same time costs are rising, including in Ukraine.

In general, US industrial production is growing, albeit slowly - the increase in August 2023 compared to August 2022 was 0,25% And in 2022, US industry showed an increase of 3,4% compared to 2021.

Quote: Whip

But the US national debt is growing at record speed,

And what? Firstly, it was already growing at a fast pace. Secondly, this makes them neither cold nor hot. Yes, in the long term, the United States is digging a hole for itself, and one day it will fall there, but this could happen in 100 or 150 years, or maybe even later. Or never at all.

Quote: Whip

And the main thing is that the “Ukraine” project did not live up to expectations and will be curtailed.

It has already been implemented. Successfully. In a game of this level there is a “minimum program” - that is, a minimum set of goals, the achievement of which allows the operation to be considered successful, a “maximum program”, when all goals are 100% achieved, and a realistic scenario, in the middle between the two mentioned. The USA has not reached the maximum, but it has quite achieved realism.

Quote: Whip

I personally don’t need loyal Galkin (foreign agent) and Pugacheva (foreign agent) in Russia at all.

You are either distorting, or really did not understand - we are talking about the population of Ukraine (I do not consider the LPR and DPR to be Ukraine), and not about fugitives from the Russian Federation. There, initially a significant part (but not the majority) of the population were really ready to see liberators in the RF Armed Forces and calmly accepted the idea of ​​integration into the Russian Federation. Now this part of the population has sharply declined.
If we had carried out the SVO quickly and successfully, then the population of the regions that were transferred to the Russian Federation as a result of its results would have been completely loyal to the Russian Federation. Not now.

Quote: Whip

-Are there any armed forces that are more normal than the RF Armed Forces?
An example to the studio please (except for the US).

I published the reasons for the failure of our operations here https://topwar.ru/225946-vozmozhno-vazhnejshij-urok-svo.html
For comparison, you can compare the actions of our Aerospace Forces over Ukraine with the actions of the Israeli Air Force over Syria (the air defense of which is supported by our specialists).

Quote: Whip

The armed forces are built in proportion to existing and predicted threats

In-in.

Quote: Whip

At that time (several years ago) everyone hoped that everything would be “peace, friendship, chewing gum”, they believed the fairy tales about the Minsk agreements,

Stanislav, do you yourself believe in what you write? :))))) If yes, then let’s stop the dialogue, because then I have, in essence, nothing more to talk to you about.
If you still DO NOT believe what you are saying, then here is my answer:
The leadership of the Russian Federation KNEW PERFECTLY with whom they would have to fight, and were preparing for this. We pretended to believe in the Minsk agreements with only one goal - to complete the largest state weapons program for 2011-2020 (adjusted closer to 2018). And when Shoigu reported on 70% of new weapons in the Armed Forces, that’s when Putin decided that he was strong enough to flex his muscles.
Your fantastic bedtime stories about the fact that the Russian Federation, everything so naive, believed in friendship with the West, and prepared the Armed Forces exclusively to fight small flocks of mosquitoes crossing the state border, are fundamentally refuted by the very fact of the adoption and attempt to implement the State Armed Forces 2011-2020 , which, if implemented, would bring the RF Armed Forces to a solid second place in the world with a large gap from all the others (2300 Armata alone were planned). Of course, our leadership was unable to implement such a program, but still, by 2022, they were confident that the RF Armed Forces were many times stronger than the Armed Forces of Ukraine and could cope with them relatively easily.
And, of course, I was wrong again.

[Andrei from Chelyabinsk]

Quote: Whip

India may be trying to use the chance to make money, but nothing more, we are not losing in price, India is making money by raising prices for Europe.

Stanislav, you are apparently speaking from a parallel reality. Everything is fine with you there, I’m happy for you. But here on planet Earth, India pays for the supply of resources in rupees, with which we cannot buy anything in India itself, since we simply do not need the goods that we can buy from them in such quantities. As a result, we exchange oil for cut paper. Which adds about a billion dollars a month.
If we were equal partners, we would sell oil to India for rubles. That is, India would be forced to buy rubles from us for dollars and pay with them. But we are unequal, and we receive Indian candy wrappers; accordingly, we have a shortage of convertible currency and the ruble is flying to 100 rubles/dollar; in order to stop this, the Central Bank raised the key rate to 13%, again putting all investment lending in the Russian Federation on one side, and, accordingly, the program import substitution... And the leadership of the country, due to lack of money, is shaking the excess profit tax.
That is, on the one hand, we are yelling about import substitution, and on the other, industrial enterprises are steeply overpaying interest on loans, cannot get loans for development, and still owe money to the state... which has dried up $300 billion in reserves in Western banks.
Worse than that. We are preparing for the Northeast Military District, and you have to be very... amazing to think that Europe will applaud Russia for unleashing full-scale hostilities in the European part of the continent. So what are we doing?
Our reserves are mainly either in the West or in gold bars. And we can’t use either one or the other, because we can’t sell gold on international markets, and we don’t need that much ourselves. As a result, we essentially blew our reserves.

Quote: Whip

China understands this and supports us as best it can, except that it doesn’t supply shells for decency’s sake.

The Chinese partners of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAN) decided to suspend cooperation, freezing the development of planned joint projects. TASS reports this.

China does not conduct transactions with Russia in dollars. Since the end of February, the two largest credit institutions of the PRC (Bank of China and ICBC) have stopped issuing letters of credit to Chinese companies for the purchase of Russian raw materials, so as not to fall under secondary sanctions. This measure will make cross-border transactions more expensive.

China UnionPay has stopped issuing its cards for major Russian banks that have been sanctioned, including Sberbank, VTB and Alfa. Earlier, Russian cardholders of the Chinese CUP system faced the fact that their payments were blocked in Western services, regardless of the bank that issued them.

China refrains from new oil contracts with Russia. State-owned corporations PetroChina, Sinopec, Sinochem and SBOOC, following recommendations from the PRC authorities, have ceased to participate in bidding for the following deliveries since early April. Negotiations are underway on gas, but the Chinese demanded a 10% discount.

Huawei froze new contracts with Russian operators back in March. The company itself is under US sanctions (as a hardware supplier and software user), but buys components from the West and remains one of the world's largest 5G service providers. In Russia, up to 40% of towers work on Huawei devices.
And here is the publication of June 2022

Many hoped that China would help circumvent sanctions, including through parallel imports (bypassing copyright holders) or even pirated products. Additionally, the country, as expected, could become a new transport corridor for Russia, helping with both exports and imports in a situation where many large logistics companies have left the Russian market.
In reality, everything turned out differently. Already at the end of March it became clear that it would be difficult to sell oil and gas to Russia at the previous level. Chinese and Indian buyers were offered batches of the flagship Russian Urals grade of oil at a discount of $35 per barrel to the price of the benchmark North European grade Brent. At the very beginning of the year, the gap between them did not exceed two dollars per barrel.
However, even despite the favorable conditions, impressive volumes of oil, which the whole world now considers “toxic,” still remained unclaimed for a long time. The largest state-owned players - Sinopec, CNOOC, PetroChina and Sinochem - were ordered to comply with existing contracts with Russia, but avoid new ones: both long-term and transactions in the spot (with delivery within two days) and forward (with deferred delivery) markets. True, at the end of May, market participants began to talk about a subtle increase in the volume of purchases of Russian raw materials by Chinese traders. This approach yielded results: in the last month of spring, Russian oil supplies increased by 55 percent year on year. Chinese companies remain wary of being caught supporting their northern neighbor, but cannot resist the low price - each barrel costs $29 less than before February 24.

In short, I envy your ability to not see the obvious

Quote: Whip

All Ukraine is now getting what they asked for, the United States is trying to find a way out of this situation.

:)) They have ALREADY achieved all their goals.
By 2014, the Russian Federation had become sufficiently strong and declared itself as a serious political player, a center of gravity for the former republics of the USSR. The rapprochement between Ukraine and the Russian Federation was especially critical - by uniting, our two countries had every chance to recreate the superpower of the Russian world.
Of course, the United States could not allow this to happen. Therefore, when the Russian Federation finally brought Ukraine into its orbit (Yanukovych signed up for the Customs Union), they staged a coup. The minimum goal is to prevent a rapprochement between Ukraine and the Russian Federation. The maximum goal is to pit them against each other.
Having suffered a crushing political defeat in Ukraine, having essentially received a fascist state on its borders, the leadership of the Russian Federation was forced to react, and for once made the right move - it returned Crimea.
The return of Crimea has become a huge boon for the Russian Federation, both internally economically (we were pushed out of the WTO, where Vladimir Vladimirovich diligently pushed us, killing both industry and agriculture of the Russian Federation), and externally politically - people perked up, seeing the Russian Spring in “polite people”. got up. There was Slavyansk, then the LPR and DPR.
And this is where it was necessary to act, sending troops into Ukraine in 2014. Everything was there - the Armed Forces of Ukraine at that time, for the most part, were quietly stunned by the fascist thugs who had come to power and did not quite understand who their enemy really was - the Russian soldier, or that chatterbox over there on the podium in the Rada.
Alas, instead our leadership, as always, went its own way. Putin decided that the country was not ready for this and took a timeout for 8 years. During this time, he prepared the country for confrontation with the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the West, both military, by continuing to finance the largest SAPs, and economically, by proclaiming import substitution. When he considered himself ready, the SVO began.
Alas, our guarantor has again miscalculated, both in terms of the economy (we are extremely far from import substitution) and in terms of the ability of the Armed Forces to solve the problems facing it. He bought 8 years of peace at the cost of the “Alley of Angels”, at the cost of an entire generation of Ukrainians brought up in fierce anger towards the Russian Federation, at the cost of the appearance of Nazi battalions in Ukraine, . The price is terrible, but the country's leadership failed to take advantage of the time for which it was paid.
But it’s easier for you to pour a couple more cans of pink paint on your glasses than to see it all.
We are with Ukraine - everything, if not forever, then for a very long time. No pooling of resources, material and labor, no superpower.

[Whip]

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

and the desire to chatter questions that are uncomfortable for you - on the other

Most likely, I don’t pay attention to some issues at all, because... I’m not particularly interested in some things, I don’t have time to understand some things and I’m too lazy to understand them, mostly I don’t have time.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

In general, US industrial production is growing

What's wrong with production in Europe?
You need to search for production in the USA

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

It has already been implemented

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

there is a minimum set of goals

What have you achieved?
Is everything already finished?
I told you that you have to wait for some results.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

The Chinese partners of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAN) decided to suspend cooperation, freezing the development of planned joint projects.

Yes, there are external manifestations of sanctions.
What did this affect?
What's wrong with us in Russia now?
Planes don't fly?
Are the trains not running?
Doesn't water come out of the tap?
Or is the grass not growing?
Have you looked out the window for a long time?
Or are you writing from Poland?
I don’t know how everything is built, repaired, blooms and smells here.

[Whip]

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

I published the reasons for the failure of our operations here https://topwar.ru/225946-vozmozhno-vazhnejshij-urok-svo.html

By the way, I also commented there, although much later.
I really didn’t like what you wrote, later I’ll read the entire article and tell you why I didn’t like it))

[Whip]

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

You are either distorting, or really did not understand - we are talking about the population of Ukraine

I didn’t understand what they were saying about Ukraine

[Whip]

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

It has already been implemented. Successfully

The successes of the Europeans are so great that, for example, the French were expelled from Africa “with nothing but brooms”,
And there will be more

[Andrei from Chelyabinsk]

Quote: Whip

What's wrong with production in Europe?

Europe has become the same victim of this conflict as we are - the blow to European industry, which was dealt by the maximum reduction in domestic gas consumption, plays into the hands of the United States. Simply put, the US has weakened its European competitors. In this regard, the US goal has also been achieved.

Quote: Whip

What have you achieved?

I wrote what they achieved. The Americans set a minimum task - to exclude economic and political integration of Ukraine and the Russian Federation. And they achieved this. The SVO could have turned everything around if we had been able to carry it out quickly. But we failed. And in general it’s not clear what we can do. Most likely, we will get the LPR, DPR and several regions with a dispersed population and a collapsed economy. It would be good if in 2024, that is, ten years after the possible integration of Ukraine into the Customs Union.
That is, the United States, with all its politeness, killed 10 birds with one stone - they weakened their European competitors, but for them they themselves remained white and fluffy, and switched all the negativity onto us, and did not allow us to be reborn in the foreseeable future as a superpower, which would be Perhaps we will unite with Ukraine. In addition, by emptying its arsenals, the US administration directly rubbed Congress’s nose into the need for additional and large injections into the army, restoring its industry. While NATO's overall military position is improving, European countries will be forced to increase military spending.
In general, the North Military District greatly shook up NATO, which is a plus for it, but in addition, it received a serious expansion, and we suffered a defeat here too - our land border with NATO practically doubled after Finland joined NATO, and Sweden is next in line... A huge success for the USA.

Quote: Whip

Yes, there are external manifestations of sanctions.
Yes, the United States did not achieve the ultimate goal of forcing the Russian Federation to political capitulation by destroying its economy with sanctions. But, as I already said, this is a “supermaximum”, and what they achieved makes their operation “Independent Ukraine” more than successful
What did this affect?
What's wrong with us in Russia now?

I pointed out to you above that things have become different in Russia.

Quote: Whip

I don’t know how everything is built, repaired, blooms and smells here.

I'm glad for your parallel universe in which you live. But I, being the director of economics and finance of a number of large (including city-forming) enterprises since the early 2000s, have been observing something that you cannot see from the window - the state of domestic industry in its various fields. So it doesn't bloom. Although it's already starting to smell...

Quote: Whip

By the way, I also commented there, although much later.
I really didn't like what you wrote.

I'm not surprised.

Quote: Whip

The successes of the Europeans are so great that, for example, the French were expelled from Africa “with nothing but brooms”,

Why did you even say that? :))))

[Evil eye]

>> our land border with NATO almost doubled after Finland joined NATO, and Sweden is next...

There is something to argue with here. The North would already be dangerous for us due to NATO’s dominance at sea, and these countries, due to their neutral status, acted as a buffer zone. At the same time, at least regarding the Finns, there would be no doubt that they would fully support NATO. The current situation, of course, will force us to spend money on improving the border, but in essence this is simply uncovering a pre-existing problem.

>>India pays for the supply of resources in rupees, with which we cannot buy anything in India itself, since we simply do not need the goods that we can buy from them in such quantities.

(You wrote this in the previous comment)

One can argue here too. The currency of another country is, in any case, a resource, and the inability to manage it only speaks of the stereotyped nature of our foreign economic policy, which has clearly become accustomed to “chopping cabbage” since the 90s. For example, this money could be invested in some trading enterprises in India that could generate foreign currency at a profit. And invest in a potential fifth column. We are traditionally bad at this; we don’t know how to protect investments and don’t want to protect them.

[Andrei from Chelyabinsk]

Quote from Evil Eye

and these countries, due to their neutral status, acted as a buffer zone.

Yes, they did not act as a buffer, just look at the map. Between whom is the buffer, between us and (neutral) Sweden? :)) There were NATO members - only Norway, with its brigade attached to several battalions. And now - there is little threat to St. Petersburg and Murmansk, since the Baltic Fleet has been completely reset.

Quote from Evil Eye

The currency of another country is, in any case, a resource, and the inability to manage it only speaks of the stereotyped nature of our foreign economic policy, which has clearly become accustomed to “chopping cabbage” since the 90s.

:)

Quote from Evil Eye

For example, this money could be invested in some trading enterprises in India that could generate foreign currency at a profit.

Firstly, the very idea of ​​investing Russian money in Indian production is a form of economic absurdity - instead of developing our own country, we are developing someone else’s. And secondly, India has a foreign currency deficit (negative trade balance), so no one will agree to the “we give you rupees, you give us foreign currency” scheme. In fact, there will be no demand for Russian state investments there at all, since such a commercial enterprise will fall under sanctions, especially since the largest buyers of Indian products today are the United States.

Quote from Evil Eye

And invest in a potential fifth column.

I’m afraid to even ask why we should oppose today’s Indian government. Are you also proposing to quarrel with India?

[Evil eye]

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

Between whom is the buffer, between us and (neutral) Sweden? :))

Between us and Norway.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

there was only Norway, with its brigade attached to several battalions.

And 70 naval combat units. Let it be light. You’re a flotophile, Andrey, and you’re writing about ground units =D
Norway is dangerous because it can support the operations of more respectable ships of other NATO countries (the USA in the first place) from a direction that is strategically significant for us. And the neutral status of Finland and Sweden would not allow them to be reached by land (or over land, if we are talking about aviation), at least without diplomatic complications.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

there is little threat to St. Petersburg and Murmansk, and the Baltic Fleet has been completely reset.

There were already threats, but they could be swept under the rug and pretended they didn’t exist. Moreover, if not the Swedes, then the Finns certainly could easily join the ranks of the aggressors (if it came to clashes), and even at a convenient moment for themselves. They have enough combat units that are dangerous to us. And in politics, as you know, it is not intentions that are important, but opportunities.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

the very idea of ​​investing Russian money in Indian production is a form of economic absurdity - instead of developing our own country, we are developing someone else’s.

Why? The United States willingly invests around the world, and these investments do not always take the form of junk loans.
You are generally right, but the devil is in the details.
For example, in a peaceful situation, it would make sense to invest abroad in those sectors that are generally unprofitable in our country (for example, local agriculture). At the same time, it would be possible to negotiate certain preferences for oneself (for example, duty-free export of products to Russia for one’s own consumption).
Now, in an emergency situation, the ideas are different. Mainly related to circumvention of sanctions. That's why I wrote about _trade_, and not industrial enterprises. Those. The task is to launder the existing proceeds on the world market, but not to store them in a Cyprus offshore for the grandchildren and great-grandchildren, but to use them for the purchase of the necessary equipment through 3 parties.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

no one will agree to the “we give you rupees, you give us currency” scheme.

For rupees, buy/produce something suitable for sale for bucks, use bucks to buy equipment and import it through dummies.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

Why should we oppose today's Indian government? Are you also proposing to quarrel with India?

Why immediately “against”? By the way, our entire foreign policy stood on this pillar - “so as not to offend our partners.” Let's not invest in pro-Russian organizations in the territories of the former USSR, otherwise we will offend someone, etc. etc., enter the desired region. Instead, we will agree with the local authorities. Then the bosses leave and all the agreements go down the drain.
I imagine this in such a way that it would be possible to identify potentially “pro-Russian” sections of the population, ranging from Indian Christians to Indian youth who want to receive a quality education but do not have the opportunity to do this in the West. And give them the opportunity to grow stronger. There is no need to quarrel with anyone for the time being.

[Andrei from Chelyabinsk]

Quote from Evil Eye

And the neutral status of Finland and Sweden would not allow them to be reached by land

Evgeniy... how to put it this way. When was the last time you looked at a world map? :))) Take a closer look. The Russian-Norwegian border is almost 200 km long (of which 43 are land and 150 km are river)

Quote from Evil Eye

Moreover, if not the Swedes, then the Finns could certainly easily be included in the number of aggressors

they are not at all interested in the idea of ​​being the target of nuclear weapons.

Quote from Evil Eye

For rupees, buy/produce something suitable for sale for bucks, use bucks to buy equipment and import it through dummies.

Utopia. As director of economics and finance, I’m telling you.

Quote from Evil Eye

Why immediately “against”? By the way, our entire foreign policy stood on this pillar - “so as not to offend our partners.” Let's not invest in pro-Russian organizations in the territories of the former USSR, otherwise we will offend someone

I was offered to invest in, literally, the “fifth column”. That was my answer.

[Evil eye]

Have you seen the comment about Jews in Palestine? And then the site stopped sending notifications about replies.

[Whip]

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

Quote: Whip
The successes of the Europeans are so great that, for example, the French were expelled from Africa “with nothing but brooms”,

Why did you even say that? :))))

I'm talking about the successful implementation of the "Ukraine" project by the West,
The success of the West in implementing the “Ukraine” project is so great that even Africa has stopped paying attention to the West (to the French, for example).

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

China does not conduct transactions with Russia in dollars

Trade turnover with China is constantly growing, 80% of payments are in national currencies, with the goal of de-dollarization.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

Huawei froze new contracts with Russian operators back in March

-Equipment is sold, including from European manufacturers, methods are being found.
-There will be an incentive for our producers.
-Manufacturers, including European ones, will accelerate the abandonment of American technologies (the EU was thinking about producing microelectronics at home, China and we are actively engaged in our own microelectronics), the effect of such sanctions is short-term, for the Americans after this (when Russia, China, and the EU have their own production facilities) competitive microelectronics) will be even worse.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

India pays for the supply of resources in rupees, with which we cannot buy anything in India itself

There are disadvantages, but there is also a way out - for example, a common BRICS currency, although there are disagreements in the BRICS on such a currency, I think they will find a solution that will suit everyone, the de-dollarization of the world economy will accelerate.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

Quote: Whip
But the US national debt is growing at record speed,

And what? Firstly, it was already growing at a fast pace. Secondly, this makes them neither cold nor hot.

So far everything is relatively calm,
But it is believed that in 3-5 years the problems with paying off the US national debt will increase sharply,
De-dollarization of the world economy (settlements in the national currencies of the BRICS countries, the common BRICS currency) will bring these problems closer.
If everything was fine with the Americans, then they would sit quietly in their America, and would not move NATO to the borders of Russia,
If there were no “Ukraine” projects, there would be no conflicts in the Middle East.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

set a minimum task - to exclude economic and political integration of Ukraine and the Russian Federation

I think we don’t really need Ukraine as such (but of course, if there was a unification of Ukraine and Russia, it would be a big plus), we have all the same things available. It was more important for KMK to sever economic relations between Russia and Europe.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

When he considered himself ready, the SVO began.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

Putin decided that he was strong enough to flex his muscles.

No, we were forced to start SVO.
The main reasons for the start of the SVO are the threat of extermination of the population of the LPR and DPR,
At that time (beginning and spring of 2022), sharp movements were planned in Ukraine towards mobilization in the Armed Forces, and it was decided to begin the Northern Military District,
Information about the mobilization of the Ukrainian Armed Forces appeared at the end of 2021, only then did they begin to work out possible military responses from Russia.
Plus the threat to Russia's security from the territory of Ukraine (Ukraine's accession to NATO) - it will be almost impossible to track hypersonic missile launchers plus the Nazis in power.
The threat from the territory of Finland and the Baltic states is easier to stop militarily, and the leadership and population in Finland are more adequate.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

The leadership of the Russian Federation KNEW PERFECTLY with whom they would have to fight, and were preparing for this. We pretended to believe in the Minsk agreements with only one goal - to complete the largest state weapons program for 2011-2020 (adjusted closer to 2018). And when Shoigu reported on 70% of new weapons in the Armed Forces, that’s when Putin decided that he was strong enough to flex his muscles.

And without Ukraine there were and are many reasons to rearm, but every time everything is getting closer to the borders of Russia.
Surely many assumed that there was a possibility that the Russian Armed Forces would be used in Ukraine, but I don’t think it would be on such a scale.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

The leadership of the Russian Federation KNEW PERFECTLY with whom they would have to fight, and were preparing for this.

The military is always preparing to fight with everyone; it is easy to “draw” the military into such preparations, and Putin knew that the North Military District would begin in Ukraine.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

The leadership of the Russian Federation KNEW PERFECTLY with whom they would have to fight, and were preparing for this.

A statement that is difficult to prove and refute, only if Putin is interrogated with passion, then we will find out the answer,
For now, this is just manipulation of facts.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

Our leadership was unable to implement such a program, but still, by 2022, they were confident that the RF Armed Forces were many times stronger than the Armed Forces of Ukraine and would be able to cope with them relatively easily.

The RF Armed Forces are many times stronger than the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Military operations in Ukraine are being carried out taking into account the fact that suddenly NATO will suddenly join in, it is necessary that there remain means to respond to NATO.
Of course, it can be assumed that there was some underestimation of some points in the SVO.

[Andrei from Chelyabinsk]

Quote: Whip

I'm talking about the successful implementation of the "Ukraine" project by the West,
The success of the West in implementing the “Ukraine” project is so great that even Africa has stopped paying attention to the West (to the French, for example).

Firstly, the Ukraine project has been successfully implemented, and I have already explained how. Secondly, the French have nothing to do with this at all.

Quote: Whip

Trade turnover with China is constantly growing, 80% of payments are in national currencies, with the goal of de-dollarization.

Well, we lost dollars here too.

Quote: Whip

-Equipment is sold, including from European manufacturers, methods are being found.
-There will be an incentive for our producers.

For those who did not understand the first time, I’ll explain again - “other methods” lead to a miraculous increase in the cost of equipment, while investment programs are implemented exclusively with the involvement of credit resources (Russian industry simply does not have its own money in the required volumes). And loans have become much more expensive as a result of the Central Bank’s policies. At the same time, investment opportunities have decreased due to the depreciation of the ruble...
Simply put, if an enterprise has a ruble profit, say, 140 million rubles, then when a dollar cost 70 rubles, it could use this profit to buy imported equipment worth 2 million dollars, but now the dollar has risen to 100 rubles, and is already enough for only 1,4 .1,4 million bucks, but equipment that previously cost XNUMX million bucks now costs much more because it is transported through parallel imports.
And the opportunities to buy imported equipment abroad have fallen by half...
That is, with the departure of European goods, a niche appeared, but the opportunities to fill it declined. As a result, the existing niche is being filled not by us, but by China (hence the sharp increase in trade turnover between us), whose enterprises today are much stronger than ours. And our industry continues to head towards the cemetery

Quote: Whip

There are disadvantages, but there is a way out - for example, a common BRICS currency

The introduction of which BRICS recently refused.

Quote: Whip

But it is believed that in 3-5 years the problems with paying off the US national debt will increase sharply,

Who is considered? You? Sorry, but Americans don't mind printing money to pay off their debts.

Quote: Whip

De-dollarization of the world economy (settlements in the national currencies of the BRICS countries, the common BRICS currency) will bring these problems closer.

news from August 24, 2023

The share of the US dollar in international payments within the SWIFT system increased in July to 46,5% from 39,4% a month earlier, according to the monthly RMB Tracker report released by SWIFT.
Bloomberg calls the July dollar figure a record. Ten years ago, this currency accounted for a little more than a third of all settlement volumes.

Dedollarization, you say? Oh well. By the way, the US dollar remains the leader in terms of share in international payments. The second position is still occupied by the euro, whose share last month decreased to a historically minimal 24,4% from 38,4%, the third - the pound sterling (7,6% in July against 6% a month earlier), the fourth - the yen (3,5 .2,7% versus 3,1%), fifth - yuan (2,2% versus XNUMX%).
Remember what I said about eliminating European competitors? In 2012, the share of international payments in euros in Swift was 46%

Quote: Whip

If everything was fine with the Americans, then they would sit quietly in their America, and would not move NATO to the borders of Russia,
If there were no “Ukraine” projects, there would be no conflicts in the Middle East.

:))) And who said that everything is fine with them? :))) They have problems that they are successfully solving at the expense of us and Europe, and we are not able to prevent this - that’s what we’re talking about.

Quote: Whip

It was more important for KMK to sever economic relations between Russia and Europe.

One does not interfere with the other, but complements it.

Quote: Whip

No, we were forced to start SVO.
The main reasons for the start of the SVO are the threat of extermination of the population of the LPR and DPR,

That is, in your opinion, the leadership of the Russian Federation, is this such a slow move that the presence of such a danger reached from 2014 to 2021?

Quote: Whip

And without Ukraine there were and are many reasons to rearm, but every time everything is getting closer to the borders of Russia.

Did you just say that the Russian Armed Forces were preparing for a confrontation with NATO, but prepared in such a way that they could not cope with Ukraine, which was inferior to NATO in all respects? Did I hear right? :)))

Quote: Whip

Military operations in Ukraine are being carried out taking into account the fact that suddenly NATO will suddenly join in, it is necessary that there remain means to respond to NATO.

A completely illiterate statement from a military point of view.
Firstly, NATO will never interfere - there are no crazy people who would risk incurring a strike from the Russian Federation’s strategic nuclear forces. Secondly, our generals know very well that NATO in its current form is incapable of conducting massive invasions of the Russian Federation without the use of nuclear weapons. Simply put, it is necessary to deploy troops on the borders with the Russian Federation, which requires many months of preparation. This is a fact generally known to all military personnel.
Accordingly, in order to exclude intervention, it was necessary not to leave a lot of forces in reserve, but, on the contrary, to conduct a lightning war, so that by the time NATO was deployed, everything would be over.

[Whip]

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

Quote: Whip
No, we were forced to start SVO.
The main reasons for the start of the SVO are the threat of extermination of the population of the LPR and DPR,

That is, in your opinion, the leadership of the Russian Federation, is this such a slow move that the presence of such a danger reached from 2014 to 2021?

-The leaders of Europe are sitting at the negotiating table with you (Minsk agreements), but you still had to get up, leave and start the Northeast Military District?
-There was much less immediate danger at that time; this danger began to increase sharply (or rather, it began to escalate sharply and it was no longer possible not to react) at the end of 2021.
-There are, of course, a combination of factors, including the readiness of the Russian economy and infrastructure for possible Western sanctions.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

Firstly, the Ukraine project has been successfully implemented, and I have already explained how. Secondly, the French have nothing to do with this at all.

I’m saying that it was implemented so successfully that the West is no longer taken into account.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

Quote: Whip
Trade turnover with China is constantly growing, 80% of payments are in national currencies, with the goal of de-dollarization.

Well, we lost dollars here too.

-Have we also lost products for yuan and rubles?
Or do you need dollars for the sake of dollars?

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

And our industry continues to head towards the cemetery

For example, open resources:
-Mashnews
-Made by us
-Technosphere Russia
Everything there is exactly the opposite, and if what they write is not true, then you can go and check.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

For those who did not understand the first time, I’ll explain again - “other methods” lead to a miraculous increase in the cost of equipment, while investment programs are implemented exclusively with the involvement of credit resources (Russian industry simply does not have its own money in the required volumes). And loans have become much more expensive as a result of the Central Bank’s policies. At the same time, investment opportunities have decreased due to the depreciation of the ruble...

The government supports, stimulates, etc. critical and important areas of industry. - the result on the sites that I indicated.
As a result of the expansion of markets for our manufacturers, intensive re-equipment of industry, and the development of new products (which were previously cheaper to buy in the West), there will be much more advantages for our industry; the difficulties at the moment are temporary.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

Quote: Whip
There are disadvantages, but there is a way out - for example, a common BRICS currency

The introduction of which BRICS recently refused.

-I spoke about the BRICS currency as an example. There are some problems with mutual settlements in the BRICS - but this is not a hopeless situation, a way out will be found.
-According to you, the rupees received from India are immediately burned in furnaces because you can’t buy anything with them?

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

Quote: Whip
De-dollarization of the world economy (settlements in the national currencies of the BRICS countries, the common BRICS currency) will bring these problems closer.

news from August 24, 2023
The share of the US dollar in international payments within the SWIFT system increased in July to 46,5% from 39,4% a month earlier, according to the monthly RMB Tracker report released by SWIFT.
Bloomberg calls the July dollar figure a record. Ten years ago, this currency accounted for a little more than a third of all settlement volumes.

Dedollarization, you say? Oh well. By the way, the US dollar remains the leader in terms of share in international payments. The second position is still occupied by the euro, whose share last month decreased to a historically minimal 24,4% from 38,4%, the third - the pound sterling (7,6% in July against 6% a month earlier), the fourth - the yen (3,5 .2,7% versus 3,1%), fifth - yuan (2,2% versus XNUMX%).
Remember what I said about eliminating European competitors? In 2012, the share of international payments in euros in Swift was 46%

-The share of the dollar in global trade settlements is declining.
-The volume of world reserves in dollars is declining.
-Yes, the share of the dollar in SWIFT has increased mainly due to the euro.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

Quote: Whip
But it is believed that in 3-5 years the problems with paying off the US national debt will increase sharply,

Who is considered? You? Sorry, but Americans don't mind printing money to pay off their debts.

They cannot print endlessly.
For example, it is written in more detail here (so that I don’t waste time on processing the source):
https://dzen.ru/a/Y1J6mxcJZCFJNKM3

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

Quote: Whip
If everything was fine with the Americans, then they would sit quietly in their America, and would not move NATO to the borders of Russia,
If there were no “Ukraine” projects, there would be no conflicts in the Middle East.

:))) And who said that everything is fine with them? :))) They have problems that they are successfully solving at the expense of us and Europe, and we are not able to prevent this - that’s what we’re talking about.

The United States has less and less opportunities to solve its problems at our expense; Europe is the last jackpot for the United States.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

Did you just say that the Russian Armed Forces were preparing for a confrontation with NATO, but prepared in such a way that they could not cope with Ukraine, which was inferior to NATO in all respects? Did I hear right? :)))

-A clash with NATO is a completely different level (probably the highest level), relatively speaking, in a clash with NATO, they would launch everything they have towards NATO; in Ukraine, military operations are carried out with some restrictions.
-There were underestimations and shortcomings at the beginning of the SVO.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

Quote: Whip
Military operations in Ukraine are being carried out taking into account the fact that suddenly NATO will suddenly join in, it is necessary that there remain means to respond to NATO.

A completely illiterate statement from a military point of view.
Firstly, NATO will never interfere - there are no crazy people who would risk incurring a strike from the Russian Federation’s strategic nuclear forces. Secondly, our generals know very well that NATO in its current form is incapable of conducting massive invasions of the Russian Federation without the use of nuclear weapons. Simply put, it is necessary to deploy troops on the borders with the Russian Federation, which requires many months of preparation. This is a fact generally known to all military personnel.
Accordingly, in order to exclude intervention, it was necessary not to leave a lot of forces in reserve, but, on the contrary, to conduct a lightning war, so that by the time NATO was deployed, everything would be over.

-There were underestimations and shortcomings at the beginning of the SVO.
-KMK partial mobilization and deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus are largely preventive actions against NATO intervention.

[Whip]

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

For those who did not understand the first time, I’ll explain again - “other methods” lead to a miraculous increase in the cost of equipment, while investment programs are implemented exclusively with the involvement of credit resources (Russian industry simply does not have its own money in the required volumes). And loans have become much more expensive as a result of the Central Bank’s policies. At the same time, investment opportunities have decreased due to the depreciation of the ruble...
Simply put, if an enterprise has a ruble profit, say, 140 million rubles, then when a dollar cost 70 rubles, it could use this profit to buy imported equipment worth 2 million dollars, but now the dollar has risen to 100 rubles, and is already enough for only 1,4 .1,4 million bucks, but equipment that previously cost XNUMX million bucks now costs much more because it is transported through parallel imports.
And the opportunities to buy imported equipment abroad have fallen by half...
That is, with the departure of European goods, a niche appeared, but the opportunities to fill it declined. As a result, the existing niche is being filled not by us, but by China (hence the sharp increase in trade turnover between us), whose enterprises today are much stronger than ours. And our industry continues to head towards the cemetery

There is a war between the West and Russia,
Armed confrontation in Ukraine,
Sanctions are an economic war, in this war there are also losses on our part,
But victory, including in the economic war, will be Russia’s.

[Andrei from Chelyabinsk]

Quote: Whip

-The leaders of Europe are sitting at the negotiating table with you (Minsk agreements), but you still had to get up, leave and start the Northeast Military District?

Stanislav, your statements are already making me laugh out loud. I would like to bring to your attention that the negotiations ended in February 2015 with the signing of the Minsk Agreements 2.

Quote: Whip

-There was much less immediate danger at that time; this danger began to increase sharply (or rather, it began to escalate sharply and it was no longer possible not to react) at the end of 2021.

Do you even realize what you are writing? That is, four major offensives of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 2016-2017, which were repulsed with great bloodshed, and in the LPR - also with the loss of territories - is this “much less immediate danger”?!!!

Quote: Whip

I’m saying that it was implemented so successfully that the West is no longer taken into account.

Well, I’ll upset you - according to your logic, they stopped taking the West into account in the middle of the 20th century, when the colonial empires of Britain and France were falling apart, not to mention all sorts of Italy. Complete decomposition occurred, apparently, in 1960, when Upper Volta, which you may know as Burkina Faso, left the French protectorate.
But the West and the USA did not care about this and 30 years later they buried the USSR, becoming the dominant force on the planet. The poor did not know that no one in the world took them into account.

Quote: Whip

For example, open resources:
-Mashnews
-Made by us
-Technosphere Russia
Everything there is exactly the opposite, and if what they write is not true, then you can go and check.

So check it out. You will learn a lot of new things for yourself, which will greatly diminish your enthusiasm, if not evaporate completely.
Yes, at the same time, go here too https://zavody.rf/publication/zakrytye-zavody
And compare what you read. So it turns out that we have made a bravura report about the opening of a screwdriver assembly of French cars in Moscow, but the fact that it was organized on the basis of a single workshop of the deceased Moskvich plant is somehow hushed up.
It is also not mentioned that usually the “production capacity” of 60-100 people, of which we are proud (especially in the high-tech sector), usually re-paste nameplates from Chinese products to their own. And there are real successes in construction, gas and oil production, and food production, but this is a little not what is needed.

Quote: Whip

They cannot print endlessly.

15 years ago I heard the same thing.

Quote: Whip

-The share of the dollar in global trade settlements is declining.
-The volume of world reserves in dollars is declining.

In global calculations, the share of the dollar “decreased” from 85 percent in 2010 to 88% in 2022. And in world reserves, yes, it is decreasing, now “only” some 58,36% :)))

Quote: Whip

The government supports, stimulates, etc. critical and important areas of industry. - the result on the sites that I indicated.

You see, as a person who personally communicated with the leadership of the Industrial Development Fund and knows many “innovation-import-substituting” enterprises, I know the situation a little better. The foundation is trying, this is an important and necessary matter, I have only one question for them - in order to receive their grants, the financial situation must be such that you can finance this foundation yourself.
Enterprises...

Quote: Whip

As a result of the expansion of markets for our manufacturers, intensive re-equipment of industry, and the development of new products (which were previously cheaper to buy in the West), there will be much more advantages for our industry; the difficulties at the moment are temporary.

(chuckling) Lord, what a naive person you are...
Here take the bulldozers. In our market, 60% of the total consumption is imported, 40% we produce ourselves. Well, Komatsu and others like them left us, and a niche appeared...
This niche needs to be filled NOW. Because there is demand. And if you don’t provide your own bulldozer, they will buy an imported one. But in order to give yours, you need equipment, but it costs exorbitant prices, and if you take out a loan, you’ll go broke. And even if there was equipment, we would have to find workers for it. And there is the same shortage of them, because it is not prestigious to work as a worker, and our government has reduced vocational education to obscene proportions. Therefore, for our plant to QUICKLY increase the production of bulldozers from 250-300 units to 500-600 per year - an unrealistic task.
But we have China nearby. Which has a population of one billion. And they produce bulldozers in fully robotic factories at a rate of 5-15 thousand per year. And their cost is minimal, because there are robots and large-scale production.
So what should I do? Buy robots like in China? So they will never pay for themselves with volumes of 600 and 700 bulldozers per year. And it costs colossal money, unaffordable for a plant with 300 units of equipment per year.
So there is a niche, but China will occupy it, not us.

Quote: Whip

There are some problems with mutual settlements in the BRICS - but this is not a hopeless situation, a way out will be found.

So they have already found it - a dollar for 100 rubles, a budget in chocolate, as always, the economy and citizens will take the rap.

Quote: Whip

But victory, including in the economic war, will be Russia’s.

We have a free country, and you have the right to profess any religion at your discretion. It pleases you to believe in this, so you will use it.

[Andrei from Chelyabinsk]

Latest news

The United Company (UC) Rusal is considering the option of closing several unprofitable plants due to low prices for aluminum and financial losses from the introduction of export duties linked to the ruble exchange rate.
Three aluminum plants of the company are under threat of closure: Kandalaksha, Volgograd and Novokuznetsk.

[Whip]

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

The United Company (UC) Rusal is considering the option of closing

-Aren’t you ashamed to “pull”?
You are already using any excuse to “pounce” again.
Penultimate news, end of 2021:
"RusAl launched the first stage of a huge project - the Taishet Aluminum Smelter (TaAZ)"
Those. Before closing unprofitable production with a total annual volume of up to 500 thousand, RusAl opened a new production whose total capacity will reach 750 thousand per year.

[Whip]

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

Stanislav, your statements are already making me laugh out loud.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

(chuckling) Lord, what a naive person you are...

So far, apart from your Hehehehe, I don’t see any irrefutable arguments)))

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

Yes, at the same time, go here too https://zavody.rf/publication/zakrytye-zavody

We go in and read, closed:
Miass crushed stone plant; - Status: Active, but these are minor things
Rezhevsky crushed stone plant;
Satka crushed stone plant;
Syrostan crushed stone plant;
Yakhinsky crushed stone plant;

--But at the same time, the production of crushed stone in Russia
2022 +15% compared to 2021
2023 +5% compared to 2022

Reading closed:
Poultry farm Paritet Vyatka;
Lunevskaya poultry farm;
Novorossiysk poultry processing plant;
Suvorov poultry farm;
Tomilino poultry farm;
Velsk Poultry Farm;
Vyksa poultry farm;
Golitsyn Poultry Farm;
Zaokskaya poultry farm;
Zuevskaya poultry farm;
Kalinin poultry farm;
Krasnogorsk poultry farm;
Krasnodar poultry farm;
Krasnopolyansk poultry farm;
Breeding poultry farm Kuchinsky;
Maryinsk Poultry Farm;
Mikhailovskaya poultry farm;
Poultry farm Murmansk;
Obsharovskaya poultry farm;
Penza poultry farm;
Petrovskaya poultry farm;
Poultry farm Pskovskaya;
Smolensk poultry farm;
Tatishchevskaya poultry farm;
Arzhenka breeding poultry farm;

--At the same time, egg production in Russia:
2021 - 44.9 billion pieces
2022 - 46.1 billion pieces
2023 - forecast +0.5 billion units than in 2022

--Production of poultry meat in Russia:
2022 - 6,2 million tons
2022 - 6,5 million tons
2023 - in the first half of the year + 1.5% (relative to the first half of 2022), although they write that there is some shortage, but this is due to increased exports.

--Production of machine tools in Russia, although small but growing, Figure 4:
https://1economic.ru/lib/117948
Etc.

--Some productions are closed for natural reasons:
- Change of owner through bankruptcy;
- The management of the enterprise “loved” some aspects;
- There is no demand for products, for example, they produced vacuum tubes, the demand for vacuum tubes fell sharply, production was closed;
- Production costs have become uncompetitive;
- Sometimes it’s cheaper, faster and more expedient to buy abroad than to start production from scratch
- Etc.
If we look in detail at your list of closed factories, then I think in most cases there will be completely harmless reasons for closure.

[Whip]

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

Quote: Whip
-The share of the dollar in global trade settlements is declining.
-The volume of world reserves in dollars is declining.

In global calculations, the share of the dollar “decreased” from 85 percent in 2010 to 88% in 2022. And in world reserves, yes, it is decreasing, now “only” some 58,36% :)))

Your 88% is the participation of the dollar in trading on world foreign exchange markets (not in trading operations) when exchanging dollar pairs - some other currency.

And even if we take your “analysis”:

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

news from August 24, 2023
The share of the US dollar in international payments within the SWIFT system increased in July to 46,5% from 39,4% a month earlier,
...
Dedollarization, you say? Oh well.

Then:
"In SWIFT, the total share of the main Western currencies (dollar + euro) is decreasing. In July 2023 it was 70,9%. A year ago, in July 2022 it was 76,7%. That is, a drop of almost 6% over the year "
https://dzen.ru/a/ZOwTKBObZlWXRkT2

Another source:
“The share of the dollar in world trade may drop to 10-40% in the next 45 years”:
https://1prime.ru/state_regulation/20230410/840332789.html

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

Quote: Whip
As a result of the expansion of markets for our manufacturers, intensive re-equipment of industry, and the development of new products (which were previously cheaper to buy in the West), there will be much more advantages for our industry; the difficulties at the moment are temporary.

(chuckling) Lord, what a naive person you are...
Here take the bulldozers. In our market, 60% of the total consumption is imported, 40% we produce ourselves. Well, Komatsu and others like them left us, and a niche appeared...
This niche needs to be filled NOW. Because there is demand. And if you don’t provide your own bulldozer, they will buy an imported one. But in order to give yours, you need equipment, but it costs exorbitant prices, and if you take out a loan, you’ll go broke. And if it were
equipment, then you need to find workers for it. And there is the same shortage of them, because it is not prestigious to work as a worker, and our government has reduced vocational education to obscene proportions. Therefore, for our plant to QUICKLY increase the production of bulldozers from 250-300 units to 500-600 per year - an unrealistic task.
But we have China nearby. Which has a population of one billion. And they produce bulldozers in fully robotic factories at a rate of 5-15 thousand per year. And their cost is minimal, because there are robots and large-scale production.
So what should I do? Buy robots like in China? So they will never pay for themselves with volumes of 600 and 700 bulldozers per year. And it costs colossal money, unaffordable for a plant with 300 units of equipment per year.
So there is a niche, but China will occupy it, not us.

The production of bulldozers is of course important,
But now there are more important tasks - for example, the production of guns and tanks,
There is no shortage of bulldozers now,
And yet:
“In Russia, during 2017–2021, the average annual increase in bulldozer production, according to RBC, was 9,8%.
...
In 2022, production volumes showed a decrease of 1%.
...
In January-June 2023, 525 bulldozers were produced, which is 3.6% higher than the same period in the previous year. In June 2023, 101 units were produced, which is 38.4% higher than in June 2022."
https://dzen.ru/a/ZNZII-wfZ3j2qySE

Here is an example of an increase in the share of domestic producers, the beginning of 10:30, at 23:45 it speaks of an increase in demand:
https://www.1obl.ru/tv/khleba-i-zrelishch/13/khleba-i-zrelishch-vypusk-13/

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

Quote: Whip
There are some problems with mutual settlements in the BRICS - but this is not a hopeless situation, a way out will be found.

So they have already found it - a dollar for 100 rubles, a budget in chocolate, as always, the economy and citizens will take the rap.

A dollar at 100 is the lesser of the evils that could happen to us.
The West is trying with all its might to harm us and weaken us, and it’s natural that they succeed in something,
Now, naturally, work is being done to ensure that all sorts of Western sanctions, “export of inflation” from the United States, etc. had no influence on us
And at the same time, the Russian economy is quite stable and developing,
In the short term, the impact of Western sanctions, etc. on the Russian economy will further decrease.

[Whip]

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

Quote: Whip
-The leaders of Europe are sitting at the negotiating table with you (Minsk agreements), but you still had to get up, leave and start the Northeast Military District?

Stanislav, your statements are already making me laugh out loud. I would like to bring to your attention that the negotiations ended in February 2015 with the signing of the Minsk Agreements 2.
Quote: Whip
-There was much less immediate danger at that time; this danger began to increase sharply (or rather, it began to escalate sharply and it was no longer possible not to react) at the end of 2021.

Do you even realize what you are writing? wassat That is, four major offensives of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 2016-2017 which were repulsed with great bloodshed, and in the LPR - also with the loss of territories - is this “much less immediate danger”?!!!

-Yes, they write that there were exacerbations:
“In 2016-17, mutual artillery shelling and local battles continued in the Donbass, sometimes turning into large-scale military clashes.”
“After the signing of Minsk-2, the war in Donbass was mainly of a positional nature. Splashes of hostilities were recorded in the area of ​​​​Avdeevka, Shirokino near Novoazovsk.”
--But negotiations always went on in 2016 and 2017:
“On October 2, 2015, a meeting of the leaders of the Normandy Four took place in Paris. The political result of the meeting was the actual agreement to shift the deadlines for the implementation of the Minsk agreements on resolving the conflict in Ukraine to 2016. French President Francois Hollande emphasized
attention to the fact that “the implementation of the Minsk agreements will not be completed until the end of this year. Elections that pro-Russian separatists had planned to hold on October 18 and November 1 cannot take place. They must take place, as the Minsk Agreement suggests, in accordance with Ukrainian legislation. The initiatives of the German side to implement the Minsk agreements, which later became known as the “Steinmeier formula”, were also considered.
"On December 16, 2015, the TCG in Minsk agreed to introduce a ceasefire during the New Year holidays."
"In 2016, the search for solutions to resolve the conflict in Donbass continued in the format of the Minsk agreements. Within their framework, in the first quarter of 2016, a number of TCG meetings were held in Minsk, dedicated to resolving humanitarian, political and economic issues, restarting the process of releasing detainees, as well as increasing monitoring compliance with the ceasefire."
“On March 2 and 30, 2016, within the framework of the TCG in Minsk, agreements were reached to stop live-fire exercises closer than 15 km from the contact line in Donbass and to create 12 demining zones along the demarcation line.”
“On April 29, 2016, the TCG in Minsk agreed on another ceasefire along the entire line of contact in Donbass, which received the unofficial name “Easter truce.”
"During the summer of 2016, within the framework of consultations of the heads of foreign affairs departments of the Normandy Four and meetings of the TCG in Minsk, proposals were developed for the separation of the parties in certain sections of the line
demarcations. The result of the work was the signing of the “Framework Decision of the Trilateral Contact Group on the disengagement of forces and assets” dated September 20, 2016."
On October 19, 2016, the next meeting of the leaders of the Normandy Four was held in Berlin.
"On December 21, 2016, the TCG in Minsk announced the agreements reached between the parties to the conflict to move to a sustainable ceasefire in connection with the upcoming holidays from 00:24 on December XNUMX"
“The year 2017 began with an outbreak of hostilities in mid-January and early February in the area of ​​Avdeevka (Donetsk region).”
“Against this background, the main agenda of the TCG meetings in Minsk in the first quarter of the year mainly concerned the protection of civilian infrastructure, as well as the return to a comprehensive, sustainable and indefinite ceasefire in accordance with the agreements of December 21, 2016. The result of the TCG work in Minsk was a new
agreement on February 18, 2017 on a ceasefire from February 20, 2017.
In addition, on February 19, 2017, the ceasefire initiative was supported by the foreign ministers of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany at negotiations in the Normandy format, which took place in Munich."
"On March 29, 2017, the TCG in Minsk agreed on the observance of the ceasefire from April 1, 2017, timed to coincide with the celebration of Easter and the so-called memorial days"
"On June 21, 2017, the TCG in Minsk agreed on the establishment of a complete ceasefire along the entire contact line for the harvest period - from June 24 to August 31"
"During August 2017, within the framework of the TCG meetings in Minsk, preparatory work was carried out to introduce the next regime of silence in the conflict zone in Donbass"
"On August 23, following the decisions made within the framework of the TCG in Minsk, the OSCE Special Representative for Ukraine Martin Sajdik issued a press release noting that “The Trilateral Contact Group... confirms its full commitment to an indefinite ceasefire in connection with the beginning of the school year,
from midnight on August 25, 2017"276. This truce was unofficially called the “school truce of 2017.”
"On December 20, 2017, the TCG in Minsk agreed on the establishment of a complete ceasefire along the entire line of contact from 00:23 on December 2017, 2018 in connection with the upcoming Christmas and New Year holidays. In addition, the TCG confirmed the need to exchange hostages before the New Year holidays and continue work in XNUMX"
Source:
https://www.dcaf.ch/sites/default/files/publications/documents/ArmedConflictUkraine_TimelineMinskAgreements_RUS_Jan2022.pdf

[Andrei from Chelyabinsk]

Quote: Whip

We go in and read, closed:
Miass crushed stone plant;

Quote: Whip

Reading closed:
Poultry farm Paritet Vyatka;

And then we read what I wrote to you

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

And there are real successes in construction, gas and oil production, and food production, but this is a little not what is needed.

Isn’t it strange that you rushed to give examples specifically from the construction and food industries? :)))

Quote: Whip

--Some productions are closed for natural reasons

Naturally, the closed/open balance is important. And this balance, even according to Rosstat, is like this https://rosstat.gov.ru/bgd/free/b00_24/isswww.exe/stg/d000/i001700r.htm
That is, even according to official data, by 2021 we have barely reached the level of the RSFSR in 1991. Just:
1) This result is a consequence of the accelerated growth of the extractive industries (that is, even officially in the manufacturing industry we are not the RSFSR)
2) These results are the result of manipulation with monetary indicators, carried out like this - if you have zero industrial growth and 10% inflation, then it can be shown that you have 2% industrial growth and 8% inflation (more precisely, 7,84% inflation) . Which Rosstat uses without a twinge of conscience.
3) There has been a simplification of industrial production - where previously we made complex equipment from scratch, now often it is either a complete screwdriver assembly or the main components are imported.

Quote: Whip

"In SWIFT, the total share of the main Western currencies (dollar + euro)

(chuckling) You’re distorting again, isn’t it a shame? You were told in plain English that

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

The second position is still occupied by the euro, whose share last month fell to a historically minimal 24,4% from 38,4%... ...Remember what I said about eliminating European competitors? In 2012, the share of international payments in euros in Swift was 46%

That is, the recommended fall is a consequence of the fall of the euro, which should be considered a success for the dollar.

Quote: Whip

Another source:
"The dollar's share of global trade could fall to

Yes, yes, how many times have I heard this before....

Quote: Whip

The production of bulldozers is of course important,
But now there are more important tasks - for example, the production of guns and tanks

First of all, please don’t evade the question raised. We discussed how the state influences Russian industry. I showed you how. Using bulldozers as an example. So - absolutely the same for all other industries.
Don't pretend that you didn't get the point - while the industry, after the departure of imported brands, has a niche, additional demand, the government of the Russian Federation, by increasing the dollar exchange rate and increasing the cost of loans, in every possible way prevents this niche from being occupied by domestic producers.

Quote: Whip

In 2022, production volumes showed a decrease of 1%.
...
In January-June 2023, 525 bulldozers were produced, which is 3.6% higher than the same period in the previous year.

Exactly. Demand in 2022-23 increased by tens of percent, and we managed to gain as much as 2,6%.

Quote: Whip

A dollar at 100 is the lesser of the evils that could happen to us.
The West is trying with all its might to harm us and weaken us, and it’s natural that they succeed in something,

I understand that for lack of arguments you fell into pro-government chants. But the truth is that it is not the West who is to blame for the dollar = 100 ruble exchange rate, but our own government, which has ruined our reserves (by investing them in illiquid gold and in assets in European banks that we cannot use) and is unable to maintain adequate monetary policy. politics.

Quote: Whip

-Yes, they write that there were exacerbations:

There were not “exacerbations”, but full-fledged large-scale battles. You just copied and pasted again what is convenient for you to live with - that is, the fading battles of 2015 after the signing of Minsk 2

Quote: Whip

--But negotiations always went on in 2016 and 2017:

Stanislav, how old are you? If it’s 10-12 years old, then it’s still forgivable, but if it’s more...
We. Signed. Minsk. Agreements. Two. V. 2015. Year. What's unclear here?
And in 2015 there was still some hope for stabilization; the fighting really died down. But in 2016-2017, the recommended agreements were radically and repeatedly violated by Ukraine. Fire and sword. Not just some border skirmishes, but large-scale offensives involving large calibers and military units. It was then that even the most recent slow-poke should have become absolutely clear that no one will implement Minsk 2, and that the Minsk agreements are not worth the paper on which they are written.
But we started SVO in 2022...
Well, if you think that the negotiation process could not have been violated under any circumstances?

Quote: Whip

The leaders of Europe are sitting at the negotiating table with you (Minsk agreements), but you still had to get up, leave and start the Northeast Military District?

then be consistent, read Wikipedia to the end, and find out that negotiations in the Normandy Four format continued in 2022. The last meeting was on February 10.
And yes, if you now say that the Russian Federation had hope for a peaceful solution from 2015 to 2022, but in 2022 it was gone, then immediately answer the question previously asked to you

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

That is, in your opinion, the leadership of the Russian Federation, is this such a slow move that the presence of such a danger reached from 2014 to 2021?

[Whip]

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

That is, in your opinion, the leadership of the Russian Federation, is this such a slow move that the presence of such a danger reached from 2014 to 2021?

The priority, of course, was a peaceful solution to the issue with Ukraine.
And during that period (from 2014 to 2021), Russia had significantly less ability to resist sanctions and other pressure from the West (which, as we see, increased exponentially after the start of the Northeast Military District), i.e. at that time there was a greater chance that the West would achieve the collapse of Russia.
This is also why KMK had to “endure” all these provocations of Ukraine in the Donbass from 2014 to 2021.
I already wrote about this:

Quote: Whip

There are, of course, a combination of factors here, including the readiness of the Russian economy and infrastructure for possible Western sanctions.

And as I said, at the end of 2021 information appeared about plans for mobilization in the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the beginning and spring of 2022,
And mobilization is already a direct military threat, after which it was decided to start a military defense.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

You just copied and pasted again what is convenient for you to live with - that is, the fading battles of 2015 after the signing of Minsk 2

You indicated the period of 2016 and 2017, I gave arguments that negotiations were ongoing all this time.
As I already said,
My opinion is that the main reason is the unpreparedness (at that time from 2014 to 2021) of the Russian economy and infrastructure for the harsh pressure of the West,
The main goal of the West is to use Ukraine as a tool for the collapse of Russia.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

First of all, please don’t evade the question raised. We discussed how the state influences Russian industry. I showed you how.
Using bulldozers as an example. So - absolutely the same for all other industries.
Do not pretend that you did not catch the essence - while the industry, after the departure of imported brands, has a niche, additional demand, the Russian government, by increasing the dollar exchange rate and increasing the cost of loans, is in every possible way preventing this niche from being occupied by domestic producers.

I already answered using your example of bulldozers:

Quote: Whip

The production of bulldozers is of course important,
But now there are more important tasks - for example, the production of guns and tanks,
There is currently no shortage of bulldozers

I will answer again in different words:
Support for industries comes with priorities, primarily to critical areas - defense industry, critical infrastructure, etc.
Relatively speaking, they will sort out the production of tanks, and it will come to bulldozers; at the moment, the production of bulldozers is less important than the production of tanks, and this despite the fact that there is no shortage of bulldozers.

[Whip]

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

Isn’t it strange that you rushed to give examples specifically from the construction and food industries? :)))

This is not on purpose, these factories simply caught the eye in the list with the same type of names.
And I give specific examples, you didn’t give any, except for the instructions from the State Department manuals that everything is bad in Russia and everything is bad in Russian industry too.

Of course, Western sanctions have had a negative impact on Russian industry, all kinds of supply chains have been disrupted, etc.
Of course, there was a decline in production, but as we see, the situation is improving.
As I already said, the Russian government provides assistance with various priorities, and there are positive results.
General signs of the state of Russian industry are electricity production (in 2023 there will be a record electricity production) and the general index of industrial production - in 2023 an increase of at least 3%, and in particular the index of industrial production of the manufacturing industry - an increase of at least 5%,
Information is easy to find.
But if you continue to claim that Russian industry is “on its side,” then we can only assume that industry is “on its side” somewhere in “your area,”
Where I am, everything is fine with the industry, they work in two or three shifts, houses and roads are being built and repaired, the territories are being improved.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

I understand that for lack of arguments you fell into pro-government chants.

I think it’s the other way around, I give arguments and examples, but you express yourself only in general words from State Department manuals “industry is on its side,” “Putin couldn’t,” “everything is lost” and “100 dollar each and save yourself who can.”
I answered you about bulldozers, but then it turned out that you didn’t understand what I told you about bulldozers.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

But the truth is that it is not the West’s fault for the dollar = 100 ruble exchange rate

Yes, the West and the USA have nothing to do with it at all, it was Russia that moved closer to the borders of NATO, it was Russia that organized the Maidan in Ukraine, and further down the list:
-raised generations of Nazis
- pumped up these Nazis with weapons
-they unleashed this pack of Nazis on Donbass
-and the subsequent entry of Ukraine into NATO with all the ensuing consequences - the Nazis are in power in Ukraine, and NATO hypersonic strike systems in Ukraine.
Those. using Ukraine as a tool to achieve their goal - the collapse of Russia.

[Mordvin 3]

Quote: Whip

I think it's the other way around, I give arguments and examples,

Four factories where I worked closed, and only one of them under Yeltsin, and the other three between 2010 and 2020.

Quote: Whip

General signs of the state of Russian industry are electricity production (in 2023 there will be a record electricity production)

We also need to look at how much was spent on enterprises and how much on household needs. The number of outlets in my apartment has more than doubled in 25 years and there are extension cords everywhere.

Quote: Whip

Where I am, everything is fine with the industry, they work in two or three shifts, houses and roads are being built and repaired, the territories are being improved.

And where I am, I only remember 2-3 shifts during the USSR. And for whom are the houses being built? My bourgeois brother has three apartments and a house, but his workers cannot buy an apartment.

Quote: Whip

and you express yourself only in general words from State Department manuals

If only someone could show me this manual, otherwise all my ears are buzzing and won’t let me take a look.

Quote: Whip

Yes, the West and the USA have nothing to do with it at all, it was Russia that moved closer to the borders of NATO, it was Russia that organized the Maidan in Ukraine, and further down the list:
-raised generations of Nazis
- pumped up these Nazis with weapons
-they unleashed this pack of Nazis on Donbass
-and the subsequent entry of Ukraine into NATO with all the ensuing consequences - the Nazis are in power in Ukraine, and NATO hypersonic strike systems in Ukraine.
Those. using Ukraine as a tool to achieve their goal - the collapse of Russia.

It’s good, of course, to blame everything on someone else, isn’t it?

[Whip]

Quote: Mordvin 3

Four factories where I worked closed, and only one of them under Yeltsin, and the other three between 2010 and 2020.

Where I worked, nothing was closed (I’m only half joking).
I wrote that production can close due to many completely harmless reasons:
- Change of owner through bankruptcy;
- The management of the enterprise “loved” some aspects;
- There is no demand for products, for example, they produced vacuum tubes, the demand for vacuum tubes fell sharply, production was closed;
- Sometimes it’s cheaper, faster and more expedient to buy abroad than to start production from scratch.

Of course, it happens that they close due to the high cost of the product produced:
Large productions have an advantage in terms of product costs, and large companies that can afford to organize large productions, accordingly, also have advantages in terms of product costs.
Some time ago, Russia joined (partially) in the global production market (global distribution of production),
Where large foreign companies (mostly transnational ones that produce products for the whole world) already have their own large production facilities for all products, and accordingly have cost advantages over Russian ones,
And some Russian production facilities are closing precisely because of the inability to compete with large companies (Russian and foreign).

Quote: Mordvin 3

We also need to look at how much was spent on enterprises and how much on household needs. The number of outlets in my apartment has more than doubled in 25 years and there are extension cords everywhere.

It is believed that in Russia the share of household consumption is about 15%,
And if there is an increase in household consumption per year by 5%, in total consumption it will be an increase of 0.75%,
And an increase in household consumption per year by 5% is unlikely, because... too much growth, most likely growing by 1-2% per year.

[Whip]

Quote: Mordvin 3

And where I am, I only remember 2-3 shifts during the USSR. And for whom are the houses being built? My bourgeois brother has three apartments and a house, but his workers cannot buy an apartment.

Now there are a lot of vacancies on a rotational basis for turners, milling operators, electricians, welders,
It seems to me that they don’t pay less than 120 thousand rubles there,
It is quite possible to save up quite quickly for a down payment on a mortgage.
Plus all sorts of preferential mortgages, rural, Far Eastern, etc.

Quote: Mordvin 3

If only someone could show me this manual, otherwise all my ears are buzzing and won’t let me take a look.

The main goals of the cypsum on the VO website, and everywhere else:
-Discreditation of the leadership of Russia (“Putin leaked”, “Putin could not prepare the industry”, “bandwagon workers in the Moscow Region know nothing and can’t do anything”, “They couldn’t surround Avdeevka”, etc.) with the aim of changing the leadership (maximum task ) and with the aim of increasing social tension in our society (minimum task);
-Any news about Russia (about the military-industrial complex, about weapons, etc.) is presented in a negative light (they increased the production of the Su-34 - “why do we need front-line aviation, it won’t survive with strong air defense”, then it turned out that the Su-34 can be used Dagger screw, etc.)
-Creating a feeling of anxiety and hopelessness in the readers of the site after reading the news and comments (“the shells are out”, “the front is not moving”, “there is a positional deadlock at the front”, “Rabotino was surrendered”, “we cannot destroy the Ukrainian air defense”, “the end of the air defense system” and the edge is not visible”, etc.) and increasing social tension in our society.
An unprepared reader will go to VO, read it and think, what the heck, everything is bad here, we’re out of missiles, there’s no food, I’d rather go to Georgia, etc.
the cips is always disguised, some of the comments from such a disguised cyps are quite harmless, neutral or even pro-Russian,
But some of the comments always have negative connotations.

Quote: Mordvin 3

It’s good, of course, to blame everything on someone else, isn’t it?

Well, this is an objective reality when the United States uses any means to maintain its world dominance and control over everything,
Such as the outbreak of armed conflicts, epidemics, etc.
Now they have created what is called “inflation export,” when the United States creates conditions (Europe has been torn apart, the Middle East is on fire) when inflation throughout the world is higher than in the United States,
Accordingly, all capital tends to flow to the USA.

[Oleg Borshevsky]

100%....pass!!!!!!

[Incvizitor]

They wrote that the fortifications alone could not fit there, now after several days of shelling they are asking for trouble...

[Nastia makarova]

that's it, not in the forehead but from the sides

[Alexander Odintsov]

The movement has started! Where were we before? What stopped you from doing the same thing before?

[Roma 1977]

Lack of strength. Presumably, the Avdeevka garrison is about ten thousand people, plus twice as many outside its borders. That is, the Russian Federation needed 50 people with all means of reinforcement for a full-fledged encirclement operation. That is, a quarter of all forces involved in Ukraine. For one Avdeevka.

[suhorukofal]

Quote: Alexander Odintsov

What stopped you from doing the same thing before?

You can personally ask yourself that question. A lot of things were missing, including people, perhaps the enemy withdrew some of his forces and weakened areas, look how the aviation started working, they either suppressed the air defense or transferred it.

[cmax]

Today there is already information in the cart (thirteenth) that some people were in a hurry to write about successes. And Terrikon has not yet been taken and Berdich. Reinforcements approached the Ukrainians. There are battles going on. Ours, if possible, stay alive!

[Evil eye]

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

The Russian-Norwegian border is almost 200 km long (of which 43 are land and 150 km are river)

200 km is quite small by modern standards. Norway stretches for about 1500 km in a relatively narrow strip along the sea. Advance head-on, cover long distances through the less populated and convenient northern territories, within the reach of the enemy’s naval weapons... I don’t know, it seems to me that if God forbid it comes to war, then advance through the entire Scandinavian Peninsula, but directly - it would be easier. Provided that we improve the combat effectiveness of the army, of course. But this still seems more likely than the possibility of increasing the combat effectiveness of the fleet.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

they are not at all interested in the idea of ​​being the target of nuclear weapons.

They said the same about Ukraine.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

Utopia. As director of economics and finance, I’m telling you.

You are based on current realities. But in current realities there is much that is utopian. For example, an army operating effectively together with aviation (which was what your last text was about). Or protectionist economic policies. Especially if it is not formally protectionist.
What if the ruling elite is somehow renewed, and fresh people act without regard to conventions (as well as the possibility of finding mistresses and great-grandchildren in London) and act as efficiently as possible by any means available to them?

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

I was offered to invest in, literally, the “fifth column”. That was my answer.

Well, I may not have expressed myself quite well, but still, “fifth columns” do not always act openly and hostilely against those countries in which they exist. Judging by the way this expression is used. It is usually understood that these are bookmarks for a convenient moment.