"The main purpose of the exercises is to work out the issues of creating an interspecific grouping of forces (troops) outside the Russian Federation, planning its use, as well as performing joint actions as part of the united group of the Navy according to a single plan."
Now the operational groups of ships are moving to the areas of the exercise. Within the framework of large-scale exercises, tactical episodes will be drawn to load the personnel of the Marine Corps and Airborne Forces units into the landing craft from the unequipped coast of the North Caucasus.
Preparations for marine activities were carried out by all fleets Russia since December last year. It provided for the reconnaissance of the training areas, the implementation of preparatory command post exercises with elements of fire training, as well as anti-piracy and anti-terrorist activities.
As explained RIA "News»At the Directorate of the Press Service and Information of the Ministry of Defense, a exercise of this magnitude is being held for the first time in decades.
In the press, including foreign, in January, there were notes and articles related to the teachings on the Syrian theme. If our Ministry of Defense did not mention the connection of the January exercises with the Syrian conflict, the journalists immediately began to compete in the search for a "Tartu trace."
The fact is that at the end of December the big landing ship of the Black Sea Fleet "Novocherkassk" out in the sea from Novorossiysk and headed for Tartus. Two more BDK ("Azov" and "Nikolay Filchenkov") of December 28 passed the Strait zone and in the Aegean Sea joined the detachment of the Black Sea Fleet ships. From there, the Russian ships with marines and military equipment on board, accompanied by the guards missile cruiser "Moscow" also went to Tartus.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation has a plan for the evacuation of Russian citizens from Syria in case of aggravation of the situation there. Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, back in mid-December, confirmed to the Public Chamber that Russia has "mobilization plans." True, the case of applying these plans "has not yet come."
Moreover, landing ships are unlikely to be engaged in evacuating citizens: the BDK can take on no more than three hundred people on board, and only if there is no reinforced marines company there.
Military specialist stories, candidate of historical sciences Alexey Isaev commented on the situation as follows:
"The Russian fleet in its current state is not capable of performing any global tasks; in the event of a confrontation with the US fleet alone, all four major Russian fleets will be swept away in seconds."
According to the expert, the exercises are necessary to maintain the fleet’s combat capability. The Russian fleet is able to participate in peacekeeping operations and in the protection of sea trade routes from pirates. Events on the Mediterranean and Black Seas, the specialist believes, are not intended to demonstrate the forces of NATO or the United States. According to him, the ships that descended from the shipyards of Russia in recent years, mainly intended for the Far East. Therefore, Russia may try to make an impression on Japan or China, but not on America.
What do foreigners write on this topic?
Perhaps, in a generalized form, Western opinions are presented in the journal "Wired", in an article from January 3 2013 of the year (by Robert Beckhusen).
The Russian fleet, the author writes, plans to hold the largest military exercises, possibly the largest since the collapse of the USSR. What do Russians want? Of course, Vladimir Putin wants to play with military muscles, demonstrate military might. But, the journalist notes, the teachings can also pursue the goal of delicately warning the USA: they say, you, Misters, stay away from salt water, traditionally located in the sphere of Russian influence.
Referring to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the American writes with trepidation about the unity of all four fleets of the Russian Federation: Northern, Baltic, Black Sea and Pacific. Immediately, he reports on the grandiose plans of Comrade Putin: to spend up to 2020 of the year 659 billion on weapons buildup. Russia is going to increase the power of the Navy. By 2016, the fleet will have 18 new warships, as well as 30 special purpose vessels and anti-sabotage defenses. This is along with six new submarines. One of these ships, the Borey-class ship (Yury Dolgoruky), has already joined the fleet this week.
However, it seems “strange” for a journalist to choose a region of exercises. Black and Mediterranean seas? Therefore, the Russians are preparing to evacuate their citizens from Syria (there are, according to various estimates, from 9000 to 30000 people). Perhaps, the author of the article suggests, the situation in Syria, where the civil war continues, is about to deteriorate sharply.
The author puts forward another hypothesis. Russia has much more solid reasons for demonstrating force in the named region. Politicians in Moscow, who are able to look keenly and see far away, believe that the Black Sea is under threat.
Back in November, a journalist, Anna Glazova, a military analyst from the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, continued her thoughts, argued in the National Defense magazine that the United States was trying to "take the Black Sea region under military control." The installation of missile defense systems in Turkey and Romania does not pursue the stated goals at all (to shoot down Iranian missiles), but is focused on the Russian threat. Romania and Bulgaria joined NATO in 2004, and in the eyes of Moscow, this actually meant that the Americans took control of the west coast of the Black Sea. This writes Glazov.
This, according to Mr. Beckhusen, is said too much. After all, the United States, he notes, is limited to the contract from 1936 of the year, which also regulates the number of warships that can pass through the Turkish-controlled Bosphorus, and the length of their stay in the waters of the Black Sea.
True, if you look at it from the other side, over the past two years, American cruisers equipped with Aidzhis missile defense systems have visited Ukrainian and Georgian ports.
What does all this mean? Georgian question? The confrontation between the United States and Russia over Georgia? .. The Black Sea, located in the “backyard” of Russia, is perfect for such a drama.
No, the author writes, the United States is not going to send an aircraft carrier to the sea to help Georgia in the event of a new war. This is a historical argument in favor of this: during the short war of 2008 between Georgia and Russia, the Pentagon planned to send two floating hospitals to the sea, but both of them were blocked by Turkey. Istanbul does not allow military vessels with a displacement of more than 45000 tons in the Black Sea; the prohibition applies only to countries not bordering on it.
It remains to assume that this is a “big show” that Russia is up to in order to counteract the relative decline in its influence.
Jim Holmes, associate professor of strategy at the Naval College, states:
"... This is all for the sake of demonstrating that Russia remains a sea power to be reckoned with."
At the end of this month, Beckhusen writes, we will get the opportunity to see to what extent this is needed. Also, according to the observer, it will be interesting to see if Putin has any surprises in hand ...
The above-mentioned Anna Glazova, head of the Middle East’s sector of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, Ph.D. November article about the security of the Black Sea region wrote about the security issue in connection with the Middle East Arab revolutions. After all, the Black Sea region turned out to be a buffer separating Russia from the seizure of the Islamic world. Neither the naval operational interaction group BLACKSEAFOR (today it is a real unifying force capable of solving serious security problems; this bloc is called “club” by A. Glazov’s block) nor the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization ( BSEC): the last goal of the activity is economic. And as a result, the absence of regional mechanisms to guarantee the stability and security of the Black Sea region, according to Glazova, leads to the fact that other players - first of all, the US and the EU - are beginning to resolve these issues.
According to Glazov, after the entry of Romania and Bulgaria into NATO and the creation of naval bases on the coast of the two countries, the Americans actually gained control of the western Black Sea region. Now, under the pretext of ensuring European security, they have begun to deploy missile defense systems in Romania and Turkey. The US Navy ships, in particular, the Ticonderoga type missile cruisers and the Arleigh Burke type destroyers, the analyst writes, appear regularly in the Black Sea.
“A concrete manifestation of this was the regular presence of US warships in the Black Sea with calls at the ports of Georgia and Ukraine, including Sevastopol, where the Russian Navy is based.
So, for the period from June 2011 to February 2012, three rocket cruisers of the Ticonderoga type of the 6 of the US operational fleet were here: Monterey (June 2011), Philippine Sea (October 2011) and Vella Gulf (end of January - early February 2012). All three cruisers are known to be equipped with the Aegis missile defense system and carry cruise missiles. ”
So, for the period from June 2011 to February 2012, three rocket cruisers of the Ticonderoga type of the 6 of the US operational fleet were here: Monterey (June 2011), Philippine Sea (October 2011) and Vella Gulf (end of January - early February 2012). All three cruisers are known to be equipped with the Aegis missile defense system and carry cruise missiles. ”
Glazov continues:
“In this context, it is possible that the US may try to use the recent political rapprochement with Turkey and increase pressure on Ankara to revise the Montreux Convention. In this case, the US Navy ships will have the opportunity to freely pass through the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles and be in the Black Sea basin without time limits. ”
At the same time, the analyst writes, the United States is strengthening its military presence in Georgia. There is information that a secret airfield was built in Marneuli (with the participation of the US military), and construction of a base for submarines is planned in Kulevi. In the southeast of Georgia, about 30 military hospitals were built according to standard American projects, for which 5 billion dollars were allocated.
Glazov recalls that if the Turkish Navy today has 14 submarines, then Russia has only one in the Black Sea Fleet.
At present, we recall that when the Patriots are placed at the Turkish-Syrian border, literally requested by Turkey from NATO (probably in exchange for the cessation of Turkish vetoing in the North Atlantic Alliance of Israel), the Americans have even a miserable, but a chance to bargain from Ankara that -or more - the same revision of the Montreux Convention. In this case, the American Black Sea threat will become a reality. In this context, the task of admitting Georgia to NATO is almost an issue. And fraternal America will be closer than ever to Russia.
It is naive to think that people in the Kremlin do not understand all this. And once they understand, they make it clear to their geopolitical "friends": we are here, we see everything. Look at us. Yes, we are far from being as strong as in the days of the glorious USSR, but you are now cringing, and we are moving forward. And we have time for it: Turkey is not eager to let your big ships pass through the Bosphorus, and China also distracts you.
Thus, the large Russian naval exercises in the Black and Mediterranean seas should be considered not just “carrying out joint actions as part of the united group of the Navy”, but precisely fulfilling them “according to a single plan”, that is, a strategic plan.
Observed and translated by Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru