The controversial Nazarbayev
On the one hand, Nazarbayeva’s speech abounded in words about the need to develop an innovative economy, integration with the closest neighbors within the CIS and the Customs Union, and preserving the status of the Russian language in the republic. These statements can be considered a balm for the soul of the so-called Eurasians - supporters of the development of relations between the states of the former USSR and all those for whom the principles of a healthy economic and geopolitical partnership play an important role.
But in the speech of the same Nazarbayev, there were also alternative notes that were aimed at a completely different audience. Here Nursultan Abishevich designated the problems of development of Kazakhstan as a single state outside the conjuncture of blocs, unions and associations. The Kazakhstan leader used the thesis that Kazakhstan should go along its rails, developing both the economy and the language on internal principles. This same part of the Strategy included the idea that the Kazakh language should soon be translated into Latin, after which it allegedly would receive a more significant impetus to development than the one that exists at the moment. It should be noted that the statement about the translation of the Kazakh language into the Latin alphabet Nursultan Nazarbayev poured water on the mill of that part of Kazakhstan’s society, which is clearly set to promote the idea of the unique position of Kazakhstan, to disintegration with Russia, in particular. What a sin to conceal, Nazarbayev’s speech about translating the language into Latin and the need to develop an innovative economy on the basis of Kazakhstan’s exclusive geopolitical role somehow does not fit well with the integration principles outlined in another part of the message.
After Kazakhstan political analysts compared individual episodes of the president’s speech, local publications filled with materials that Nazarbayev so blurred the true vision of the future of the country that neither his supporters nor his opponents had an unequivocal opinion on where to go. Kazakhstan, according to Nursultan Abishevich. If we assume that the priority is the Customs Union, how much does the unexpected statement about switching the Kazakh language into Latin, which is actually recognized by the President of Kazakhstan as the best basis for the development of Kazakh identity than the Cyrillic alphabet used by both Russia and Belarus, fit with the integration plans? If we assume that the words about the “breakthrough” alphabet and the sovereign economy are a provocation against their colleagues in the Customs Union, then how can the words about the need to develop partnership relations with neighbors fit in with it? Perhaps Nazarbayev, by the word "neighbors", means completely different states: well, China, for example ...
Oppositional Kazakhstani newspapers quickly picked up the presidential wave, giving away some nationalist notes, and stated that Nazarbayev, at the end of his reign, decided to finally wave the drab towards Russia, from which Kazakhstan "receives only problems." These problems for Kazakh oppositionists are seen in the fact that after the republic’s entry into the Customs Union, prices for all major goods in the country began to rise, and the republic’s economy was in a deplorable state. Like, before serious integration with Russia and Belarus, we had completely different indicators, and this “swampy” Moscow and a kind of Minsk decided to tie the rapidly developing Kazakh economy here and there. They say that Moscow is engaged in dumping policy in Kazakhstan and pushes its goods ...
However, the arguments that integration with Russia and Belarus is disastrous for Kazakhstan are not subject to any criticism. If we consider the change in the pricing policy in the republic from the position of inflationary levels, it turns out that the rise in prices that Kazakh opponents of Eurasian integration like to talk about today is absolutely not related to the country's entry into the Customs Union. And whether this price increase is total and systematic is also a question. The data on inflation parameters in Kazakhstan will help us to answer it.
Inflation in Kazakhstan in 2010 was 7,8%, in 2011, it decreased to 7,4%. At the same time, the inflation rate this year (2012) corresponds to a record low, even according to international experts, who are not very fond of using the “necessary” Astana numbers. So, according to the government of Kazakhstan, inflation in 2012 is 6,1%, and according to experts from the World Bank - about 6,2-6,3% (the difference is within the margin of error). In other words, after Kazakhstan joined the CU, the inflation rate in just two years decreased by 1,6-1,7%. At a time when crisis waves are rolling on the world economy with a new and new force, inflation indicators in Kazakhstan are very encouraging.
In order to compare with what, we give an example of inflation indicators in the republic for 2008 a year (before joining the CU). This figure was already 23,4%!
Words about the dumping policy towards Kazakhstan by the Russian Federation are also not clear. After all, if we consider that the Russian-Kazakh border has become open, and labor from Central Asia (from Kazakhstan, including) has almost freely flowed into the Russian Federation, then there is someone else who dumps ...
Based on this information, we can say that today there are enough forces in Kazakhstan that wish to unbalance the integration mechanisms that have emerged in the post-Soviet space. It is frankly not clear why President Nazarbayev is ready to go to the certain extent with these forces? Perhaps this is a kind of message to Moscow and Minsk with a call to strengthen the Asian direction of foreign policy, and not to look for dubious contacts on the side. If so, then Nazarbayev’s injection to Russia and Belarus, as CU partners (Russia, of course, first of all), Moscow should endure and evaluate correctly. And after such an assessment, decide on an open dialogue with Astana about where our three bird will rush in the near future. It’s another thing if Astana suddenly decided to like the West ... And this is a challenge for Moscow. But what is Kazakhstan going to call Russia (if it is going to)? - the question ... Have you really decided that it is time to start a carve following the example of some other territories of the former USSR? ..
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