The G-20 summit in India turned out to be deep in content and will require a serious response from Beijing

20
The G-20 summit in India turned out to be deep in content and will require a serious response from Beijing

On September 10, the G20 or G-XNUMX summit, which was held in the capital of India, New Delhi, ended. September and October have traditionally become the months when the results are summed up on various international platforms - a kind of finalization of the next political annual cycle.

The Indian summit was covered and analyzed in some detail by observers, since the absence of the Chinese leader at it made the GXNUMX format itself strange. However, the BRICS format is beginning to undergo changes relative to its original ideas and tasks (“On the results of the last BRICS summit").



If in the original conceptual design the G-7 (financial and technological cluster) balanced the BRICs + C (industry, raw materials, labor resources), and the G-20 represents a kind of connecting mechanism between the first and second platforms, then the current situation shows certain changes.

The G-7 can now potentially be balanced (in some future and under certain circumstances) by BRICS+, but the G-20 format is beginning to lose its role as a coupling. It is gradually being stitched together with the Big Seven.

This is only a trend for now, and the question is how sustainable it will become, but it cannot be ignored. But then a new question arises: what functionality was updated by the G-20 in New Delhi? The results and conclusions here can be quite interesting.

Many people drew attention to the use of the original name of the country in Hindi, “Bharat,” instead of the name “India.” Both names are used in official documents, but it is “India” that traditionally appears on international platforms. This time they decided to review the order, and Indian Prime Minister N. Modi spoke on behalf of Bharat.

Bharat, attributed to the early stage of the formation of the social system of India - to the time of the Aryan conquest (or modern and tolerant resettlement), of course, quite clearly emphasizes not just the pre-colonial, but the extremely original character of India as one of the centers of civilization.

In the West, observers focused on the opposition between Britain and India, but judging by the general agenda of the summit and its results, this should still be attributed to the line that separates India and China.

The Aryan migration goes back, according to a number of sources, much deeper than the described and codified Chinese story. In this particular case, in turn, it is hardly worth delving into the historical analysis of “who is older,” because we are talking primarily about ideologemes. The Chinese have their own civilizational ideologies that underlie their current policy, while India has its own.

In this case, New Delhi emphasizes that the basis of Indian policy is equivalent even at its “roots”. It should also be noted that a few days before the GXNUMX summit, the Pope brought a very peculiar message to China, which dealt with the material in detail (“Pope in Mongolia. Khan Guyuk's message for China").

Where does Tibet and part of the Indo-Pakistan region fall, based on the essence of this message?

To the imperial sphere of Pax Mongolica, which had its capital at that time in China and was governed from there. In Bharat-India, they do not agree at all with this idea of ​​a continental design axis between Rome and China. And many other important details of this summit already speak about this. N. Modi’s sign with the not yet very familiar name “Bharat” is also a kind of response to the ideologies of Pax Mongolica “with Chinese characteristics.”

Initially, it seemed that the main part of the event would be devoted to topics related to Ukraine. Indeed, in this part we see a direct continuation of the so-called. “peace summit” in Jeddah, which previously caused a wide reaction and was examined in detail. As a result, the Arabian peace initiative began to be called a failure, but not only the occasion is important, but also the general context and how long this part of the event took.

At the summit in Jeddah, it was important for the United States to involve China in the discussion, but at the same time, methodically, like one persistent forest bird that hollows out food from under the bark, try to “glue” the Middle East and Israel together with India into one large political and economic structure (cm. "USA and the new concept of the “Third Pole for the Middle East”", and "About the strange peace talks in Saudi Arabia").

Actually, that's why the author emphasized At the beginning of August, attention was paid to a number of Bloomberg reports that a new stage of a peace summit based on the Arabian model could no longer take place in Saudi Arabia, but in neighboring India. The logic of the process here is connected not so much with Ukraine, but with the vision of regional development as a whole.

“If you keep this conceptual project of the “Third Pole” in mind, then the message from Bloomberg becomes completely logical that the next stage of the peace summit on Ukraine will no longer be held in Saudi Jeddah, but in ... New Delhi, the Indian capital . It is possible that the authors of Bloomberg, knowing how they are quoted in Russia, are carrying out a kind of “trolling”, testing the waters, but the logic of the message actually corresponds well to the American concept.”

At the time this seemed like an outright stretch, but (as in Jeddah) what is important here is not the Ukrainian topic itself, but, again, the general context. The second big task was to synchronize the G-7 and G-20 formats, not only in terms of agenda and time, but also in final statements. The United States remained true to its line, it just must not lose sight of this line.

The problem for the United States is that they are frankly overdoing it with the Ukrainian agenda, as is customary when Kiev follows a policy of “aggressive conscious beggary,” but both Jeddah and New Delhi are already showing Washington itself that the Ukrainian agenda is not a universal cement with which to strengthen any international forums. If there is too much cement and too little sand, the effect may be the opposite.

China, after all, reduced its participation in the GXNUMX summit, not least because it had a prior understanding of the amount of time that would be devoted to agreeing on the final statement on Ukraine. After all, he voiced his position earlier and more than once.

In addition to the general context, the process of agreeing on general theses on Ukraine allows Washington, in turn, to sense the limits of what is possible in terms of its goals of actively or passively freezing the confrontation on the Dnieper.

It is not for nothing that the Western press is almost directly saying that it is necessary to freeze the active phase of the confrontation if the counter-offensive is unsuccessful (and so far it has been).

Different groups of American politics thus, through such summits, assess the situation, including in relation to Russia’s potential trade opportunities, because in the current “import substitution” model, foreign trade is a basic indicator of sustainability for Moscow.

The final theses of the summit on Ukraine are known in fragments, and they are once again too neutral for Washington (this is the general opinion from the summit). It was not for nothing that the summit of the GXNUMX parliamentary associations was convened at the same time. There were formulations that did not allow for neutrality at all.

Let us note once again a point that illustrates the position stated above: through the Ukrainian agenda, the United States is gradually bringing both the G-20 and G-7 summits onto the same wavelength.

It would be strange if China did not see this, and Beijing would respond on other scales - the SCO and BRICS+, since the GXNUMX is already ceasing to play the role of a balancer and that same docking mechanism.

By pulling the G-20, the United States automatically removes the balance function from it. The problem is that this vacuum will need to be filled. On what conditions to participate is something for Beijing to think about. After all, the current summit in New Delhi has shown that China’s political weight is also a changeable value.

This aspect of the summit matters strategically even more than the actual formulations on Ukraine. Two globalization projects continue to compete with each other (“Club of Rome” vs “Ultra-Liberals”), each of which has models where all these summits, forums, associations are endowed with certain functionality. Functions change (objectively or subjectively), one side or the other will have to adjust the original models, no matter how much one would like to. And this is already a change in institutions, this is not a wording to be agreed upon, even if it is important at a particular moment.

In the final theses on Ukraine, as far as we know, there is no mention of “Russian aggression” or “war against Ukraine”; moreover, most likely, they will not even be included in the main document, but it turned out to direct the vector of the two associations in the right direction. At the summit, much more time was devoted to the Ukrainian case than last year. This is not a low result for the United States, although it is not even close to the maximum.

On the second day of the summit, it was announced that a memorandum of understanding had been signed between the UAE, Saudi Arabia, India, the US and the EU to form a common port, energy and railway network.

The interesting thing is that they immediately started talking about this as an alternative to the Chinese “One Belt, One Road” project. But, on the other hand, isn’t it strange that all these countries, excluding the United States, are already potential recipients of goods along the Chinese logistics corridor. Particularly interesting in this regard is the European Union, the main recipient of the One Belt, One Road project. Well, they will finally build a trans-Arabian railway network - a project that is already at least twenty years old, the Chinese will transport their containers to Europe, or maybe they will simply buy shares there.

We are not talking about logistics - an alternative to the Chinese one; this logistics does not contradict the Chinese project, and even in some ways simplifies it and makes it cheaper.

We are talking again about the US conceptual idea of ​​​​creating a “Third Macroeconomic Pole”, which grew out of the ideas of the Abraham Accords and through several stages took shape in the I2U2+ concept. But these are no longer logistics projects, not trade and transport corridors, of which there are never many, but the transformation of the region into a separate industrial cluster. The idea is to create competition for China at its main production site.

J. Sullivan in early May, when this concept was finally formed and presented, said directly: “You will hear about it more and more often.” And we really see that Washington is persistently building it. The obstacle to this initially lay in the plane of relations between Saudi Arabia - Palestine - Israel. Without Saudi Arabia, the project will not work. But no matter how much over the past couple of years the States tried to persuade Riyadh to join this idea of ​​​​an “Indo-Arabian bloc”, they ran into opposition from the crown prince.

The signing of this memorandum means that the ice has broken and Riyadh's position has softened. And this, in turn, means that somewhere certain agreements on Palestine are ripening, progress on this issue by B. Netanyahu’s cabinet, certain difficulties on Syria for Russia and Iran, and many more related combinations of problems and opportunities. This is not yet a breakthrough in terms of I2U2+ and the “third pole”, but it is already quite close to it. And this is also a good answer to the Trumpists and MAGA adherents in the domestic political field in the United States - you thought that only you could talk about “good deals”, here’s a “big deal”.

Combined GXNUMX PGII funding and Arabian funds could, in theory, fully cover the costs of such a project. Of course, China will have to counteract it, and this will not be an easy task. The peculiar irony of fate here is that this concept is a clear expression of the thesis about the need to create a “multipolar world” - well, such a model of multipolarity, it turns out, is possible. Opposing it with theses of “fighting American hegemony” will not be the most trivial task after a while.

Those who believe that the above is only a hypothetical construction should answer a simple question: under what concept will the billions of dollars of rupees floating in India work? S. Lavrov cheerfully reported that India will offer directions for investment. Great, but what (or rather, whose) strategy will they work for in the end? In this case, the GXNUMX can only express gratitude that the amount of its own funds allocated to the PGII integration strategy can be reduced, and this is precisely the alternative (one of) the Chinese initiatives.

Although we cannot exclude the possibility that this is just a veiled outflow of capital, it is unlikely that it will work outside the framework of the same PGII. In any case, when we are shown photographs of a smiling N. Modi, who very cordially shakes the hand of our Foreign Minister, we must understand that everyone would have such a face if your seller left you funds in your accounts in such a volume “for investment "

In general, the G-20 summit turned out to be not so much “Ukrainian” as conceptual, and it would be sad if in Russia everything in our analysis is focused only on the analysis of theses around Ukraine, although it is clear that this is the most painful point.

Rome came to Mongolia, but China and Russia were not the first persons to participate in the G-20 summit, nor, of course, Iran. That is, the “continental axis” was not fully involved in the summit one way or another. This is a serious challenge, and we will see what the answer to it will be by how another major international forum – the SCO – is held.
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  1. +4
    13 September 2023
    within what concept Billions of dollars in rupees stuck in India will work? S. Lavrov cheerfully reported that India will offer directions for investment.
    recourse Must work in the interests of Russia.angry Buy planes and tanks. feel
    1. +4
      13 September 2023
      Hindus are traders and not warriors...they will smile at you with 32 teeth, shake hands, dance on their heels, sing beautifully and fieryly, and also fieryly extract technology, investments, money, capital from us.
      Behind the apparent simplicity lies a solid calculation... here the Indians are doing a good job of hanging noodles on the ears of the Kremlin and us.
      1. +9
        13 September 2023
        Hindus are traders and not warriors

        Depends on what. The same Rajputs at one time said “Mama don’t worry.” The pretzels were worse than any samurai. Still, it is a kshatra, albeit of Scythian origin. Whatever one may say, dozens of generations of warrior ancestors make themselves felt.

        Heroism, strength, determination, resourcefulness, courage, generosity and leadership - these are the natural qualities of a kshatriya. (Bhagavad-gita 18.43).
        1. 0
          13 September 2023
          Quote: paul3390
          .... the Rajputs at one time hurricaned, “Mama don’t worry.” The pretzels were worse than any samurai. Still, it is a kshatra, albeit of Scythian origin. Whatever one may say, dozens of generations of warrior ancestors make themselves felt.......

          India has an ancient caste system (although now it is supposedly abolished, it is respected). According to this system, warriors (kshatriyas) are second on the hierarchical ladder, after the brahmanas (priests, clergy). It was from the Kshatriyas that there were rulers, military leaders, then the Varnas come like this: Vaishyas and Shudras. Vaishyas have always included traders, artisans, cattle breeders, and farmers. Today, most of the clerks and wage earners are classified as vaishyas.
          Who, in this case, is more important in the state?
  2. +3
    13 September 2023
    Kyiv follows a policy of “aggressive conscious begging”
    - exact wording!
    1. +1
      13 September 2023
      What are Russia's prospects in this club of interests of different countries?
      1. +9
        13 September 2023
        Quote: Lech from Android.
        What are Russia's prospects in this club of interests of different countries?

        Apparently there are not so many of them: 1. Becoming a subordinate member of the Chinese cluster (which is what everything has been moving towards lately, and quite rapidly), 2. Renewing relations with the global West and becoming a resource satellite of the United States, 3. Awareness of oneself as an independent center of the world influence (the rapid development of education and science, industry and agriculture, solving problems of the ideology of social development and demography) and the formation of its own cluster: Russia, Belarus, Central Asia, Syria, Iran, Afghanistan, Mongolia, North Korea, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and in the future, inclusion of countries in Central/South America and Africa.
        So far I see the implementation of the first scenario...
        1. +2
          13 September 2023
          formation of your own cluster: Russia, Belarus, Central Asia, Syria, Iran, Afghanistan, Mongolia, North Korea, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia


          You've lumped completely different countries together.
          Curious, what, for example, did you find in common with Belarus, Iran, Mongolia and Vietnam?
          In my opinion, completely different languages, religions, worldviews and goals.
          And these countries don’t even have a common border.
          1. 0
            13 September 2023
            You know, from the point of view of value formation, the comrade above is not so wrong. Quite the opposite. It sounds unusual, but today's Japan is precisely an element of the Chinese economic super-cluster. Just look at its foreign trade turnover. And Vietnam also looks interesting - all these countries generate 50% of their turnover through each other. At the same time, foreign policy is essentially anti-Chinese, such is the paradox. Although this is not a paradox, but a feature and application of our time.
            1. +1
              13 September 2023
              Today's Japan is precisely an element of the Chinese economic super-cluster. Just look at its foreign trade turnover.


              Perhaps you are right.
              Adjusted for USA.

              https://trendeconomy.ru/data/h2/Japan/TOTAL
              Top export destinations from Japan in 2022:

              China with a share of 19,3% (US $ 144 billion)
              USA with a share of 18,7% (139 billion US $)
              South Korea with a share of 7,23% (54 billion US $)
              Other Asian countries with a share of 6,98% (52 billion US$)


              Vietnam looks interesting too


              Vietnam is even more focused on the United States.

              https://trendeconomy.ru/data/h2/Vietnam/TOTAL
              Top export destinations of commodities from Vietnam in 2021:

              USA with a share of 28% (96 billion US $)
              China with a share of 16,6% (US $ 55 billion)
              South Korea with a share of 6,53% (21 billion US $)
              Japan with a share of 5,99% (20 billion US$)
    2. The comment was deleted.
    3. 0
      13 September 2023
      Quote: Uncle Lee
      Kyiv follows a policy of “aggressive conscious begging”
      - exact wording!

      Okay, Vladimir Vladimirovich hi that Zelebob was not invited and his performance was dispensed with! The dead puppies are starting to get boring. And they are already accustomed to being messed with.
  3. +6
    13 September 2023
    In general, there are a lot of intentions, as soon as all the intentions will be realized, it was smooth on paper...
  4. +8
    13 September 2023
    The article describes the implementation of a deep strategy. We are incapable of either deep strategic planning or its implementation. Because there is no one.
  5. -2
    13 September 2023
    Bharat, attributed to the early stage of the formation of the social system of India - to the time of the Aryan conquest (or modern and tolerant resettlement), of course, quite clearly emphasizes not just the pre-colonial, but the extremely original character of India as one of the centers of civilization.
    And what's next? Zhongguo? Turan?
  6. +2
    13 September 2023
    The G-20 summit in India turned out to be deep in content and will require a serious response from Beijing
    “Let’s wait for my mother, let’s wait for your mother” (c) Answer from Beijing... But while Beijing is silent, there is no answer...
  7. +1
    13 September 2023
    Of course, the Americans are fighting China and have come up with their own alternative project. But can they??? And when? Recently, there have been many accidents and explosions on railways in the United States. We discussed the poor condition of both railway tracks and trains. They have not been repaired or replaced for a long time! And how many times will you have to shift loads along this path? recourse
    wassat tongue Biden, as always, continued his tactlessness: he distorted the name of the Saudi prince (Mohammed bin Salman), called him ben salaam.Biden also greeted the delegation of the Republic of Vietnam with the words "--- Good evening, Vietnam! And during the Vietnam War, the Americans had such a song. ---- GOOD MORNING, VIETNAM! In it, a soldier in Vietnam sings about how he wants to return home, sings about the deaths and injuries of his friends, mentions the children of generals who do not fight and live happily ever after! There are such words
    ......We'll go to hell, bleeding.
    They will tell us that the butt is an extension of the shoulder,
    And it’s not for us to live in peace.......
  8. +2
    13 September 2023
    Well, they will finally build a trans-Arabian railway network

    We are not talking about logistics - an alternative to the Chinese one; this logistics does not contradict the Chinese project, and even in some ways simplifies it and makes it cheaper.

    We are talking again about the conceptual idea of ​​the USA


    write directly: Russia is being pushed out of the “transporters of Chinese goods” to Europe...
  9. 0
    13 September 2023
    billions of dollars in rupees stuck in India


    At one time, we really wanted to trade our traditional goods for rubles.
    Now, after our epic with rupees, I hope everyone understands why it didn’t work out?
    Why did no one want to keep ruble accounts with substantial sums in our banks?
    1. 0
      13 September 2023
      You know, this is all a clear illustration of the fact that the substitution of the concepts of “cost” and “sphere of calculations”, with which our propagandists jumped, is a road to nowhere. Although I attribute part of the problem to the fact that they wanted to cover up the withdrawal of money. There were rather murky schemes between the dollar-rupee and the currencies of the Arabians. Didn't take off.
  10. +3
    13 September 2023
    The absence of leading opponents to the West in the person of the top officials of the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China at the meeting made it possible to confirm the principle of the inviolability of borders, i.e. in fact, condemn the Northern Military District of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, collectively come out in favor of global financial and digital integration under the auspices of Western international structures, which is essentially a response to fantasies about a multipolar world order and the rejection of the dollar and euro, and the Russian Federation’s attempt to switch to payments in national banknotes, for which not being able to buy anything on the world market resulted in a shortage of dollars and euros, a fall in the ruble exchange rate, and an increase in the key rate.

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