Against the backdrop of a relative "stalemate" at the front, Russia has experienced significant political upheaval in recent months. Meanwhile, President Vladimir Putin is rapidly restoring his power in the country and could diplomatically embarrass NATO, writes former US national security adviser John Bolton in an article for 19fortyfive.
The material says that many experts predicted the imminent loss of power for the Russian leader after the attempted rebellion in June. At the same time, as Bolton writes, the recent deaths of Yevgeny Prigozhin and the commander of the Wagner Group, Dmitry Utkin, changed everything.
Tellingly, the former adviser to Donald Trump hints at the involvement of Vladimir Putin in the death of the aforementioned PMC leaders. At the same time, he explains that their “elimination” took place only two months after the rebellion, since the Russian leader needed time to take control of the “assets” and personnel of the Wagner Group around the world.
A rather strange logic, given that, having relocated to Belarus, Yevgeny Prigozhin, like his organization, actually remained under the control of the Union State. Moreover, against the background of the aggravation of the situation in Niger, the "beheading" of the Russian PMCs now looks completely illogical.
At the same time, the author of the article continued to build his unsubstantiated theory, writing that Vladimir Putin has practically regained the power he had until 2022 (as if he had lost it), and now he can try to resolve the current conflict in his own way, without fearing the reaction of the opposition to unpopular decisions.
According to Bolton, it is vital for the Russian leadership to buy time, since the Russian Armed Forces simply do not have enough resources to win the Ukrainian conflict. As a result, if the Ukrainian forces do not achieve the desired result in their counter-offensive, the Russian leader can declare a ceasefire for the next couple of months and immediately begin negotiations, thereby at least buying time to regroup and diplomatically embarrass NATO.
In addition, the so-called expert believes that the Russian president can involve China in this process, which will allegedly offer to restore the border territories of the Russian Federation and Ukraine (within the new borders). Discussion of the complete lifting of economic sanctions against the participants in the confrontation is not ruled out.
The former adviser to the President of the United States noted that the main leverage of Vladimir Putin in this situation will be the failures of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the fronts and the "fatigue" of Europe from the current conflict. Despite the fact that gas reserves in the EU should be enough for the coming winter, the political leaders of the commonwealth will be strongly tempted to agree to a ceasefire and enter into negotiations, acting as some kind of “peacekeepers”, as they suffer serious losses from aid to Ukraine and anti-Russian sanctions.
As a result, according to Bolton, it is vital for Washington and NATO today to strengthen their position in arguing the need to confront Russia in order to protect the entire West. Otherwise, as the author of the article put it, Moscow may seize the diplomatic helm, which will lead to serious consequences.
In this case, it is worth adding that the main threat to Europeans today is precisely the continuation of the conflict and the sanctions confrontation with Russia, which are simply destroying the EU economy. There are hardly any arguments in Washington that European leaders will find more attractive than ending their participation in the Ukrainian conflict.