Military Review

The analytical program "However," with Mikhail Leontyev 21.12.12

44


New appointments to key positions in the US administration can mean a very serious adjustment to all US foreign policy.
The new US Secretary of State, obviously, will be Senator, the current head of the foreign policy committee, John Kerry. Approval by the Congress does not portend any problems. John Kerry is a former presidential candidate who lost the election to George W. Bush in 2004. Even then, he spoke out against the war in Iraq, for reducing the military budget and the American presence around the world.

For the post of head of the Pentagon, the White House proposes Chuck Hagel, a Republican senator, also opposing the militarization of American foreign policy. Despite belonging to the Republicans, Hagel may have problems in the Congress from the republican side precisely because of his position on the Middle East. In particular, Hagel opposed the recognition of the Lebanese Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, urging Obama to negotiate directly with Hamas, which clearly does not cause enthusiasm from the powerful pro-Israel lobby.

Both candidates are Vietnamese veterans. And like all true veterans harbor a steady dislike for military adventures. And both are proponents of active, flexible and pragmatic diplomacy. However, the most immediate changes in new appointments promise Syria and the entire situation in the region.

Back in 2008, Kerry and Hagel published an article in the Wall Street Journal entitled “It's time to talk to Syria.” There, in particular, they warned: "Make no mistake: cooperation with Syria is not based on common values, but on common interests." Recall, two weeks ago, "However," the article was quoted by the French conspiracy theorist Thierry Meyssan, who predicted the most serious changes in the US Middle East policy in connection with large-scale purges of hawks in the US administration and future appointments. There, in particular, Meyssan leads a photo in which Kerry and his wife are having dinner with the Assad couple in a Damascus restaurant.

It is not only a matter of the normal personal relations of the new appointees with the political figures who are still being demonized in America. The fact is that they are calm pragmatists. And elementary pragmatism is enough to revise the entire current absurdly surrealistic US policy in the region from Morocco to Afghanistan. But, as we have said, it is not only about this. A clear turn, in any case, the attempt of such in Obama’s policy is connected not so much with Obama’s personality, as with understanding the changed role and possibilities of America in the world.

Against the background, on the one hand, of the crisis of the American financial and economic system, uncollectible debts, and on the other hand, in the light of the coming self-sufficiency in hydrocarbons, the widespread American presence, as well as the geopolitics of oil itself, become an overwhelming and unnecessary burden. The hope of preserving American leadership is directly related to the ability to reduce the number and scale of conflicts to the minimum acceptable size. And this means the need to negotiate with the opponents about the resolution or, at least, the freezing of such conflicts.

America wants to negotiate for the first time in the last 30 years. And America will go from wherever it can go. The world gendarme is trying to relieve himself of unbearable gendarme functions. And this is a problem for many. And by the way, the American client around the world should think about their future. Suitcase, train station, washington?
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44 comments
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  1. Lech e-mine
    Lech e-mine 22 December 2012 10: 32
    +17
    Fir-trees - sticks who will be at war with the Taliban.
    It is beneficial for us that the United States get stuck in Afghanistan for a long time.
    The United States seems to have indigestion. TOO MUCH DIPPED countries of unwanted American democracy.
    1. Gluxar_
      Gluxar_ 22 December 2012 13: 51
      +8
      You can always agree with the Taliban what is not always possible to do with the Americans, especially on drug trafficking. So the US withdrawal from the borders with the Collective Security Treaty Organization is beneficial for us, in addition, it is a powerful tool for strengthening the Eurasian Union ... common threats there, etc.

      The United States leaves because no one called and no one needs ion. The fact that the United States will soon come to an independent energy supply sounds like some kind of nonsense. The shale revolution has failed; shale oil is the same myth. The United States is leaving today because in a few years they will have to escape with much greater costs. They agree with Assad because they cannot win.
      1. Botanologist
        Botanologist 22 December 2012 20: 34
        +4
        You can always come to terms with the Taliban,

        Not very yet ... Although people agreed highly experienced and very sophisticated. We are not yet a contracting party. Actually, there are no such parties at all, for the Taliban have opposed themselves to the entire non-Muslim world. And all sorts of traditional lures are not very attractive. So we can only talk about color-code rules of behavior, no more. And in the future - of course, war. Though with drug trafficking, even with Islamization, the Taliban will be a stronghold of conflict for any reason.
        Sucks there in Afghanistan.
    2. Kaa
      Kaa 22 December 2012 16: 56
      +5
      Quote: Leha e-mine
      The United States seems to have indigestion.

      The difficult legacy of one of the descendants of the Rurikovich - Kerry got:
      “The 69-year-old politician, who was born in Colorado, is a descendant of a number of monarchical dynasties in Europe, including the Russian tsars. British genealogy publishing house Burke's Peerage published data on Kerry's pedigree, and it turned out that among his ancestors - Tsar Ivan the Terrible .http: //www.regnum.ru/news/polit/1607700.html#ixzz2Fmhefhps
      During a seminar on the development of a strategic analysis methodology held at the RAND American Strategic Research Center
      we can conclude that in certain circles of the United States an understanding of the fact is ripening - many regional designs and projects around which US policy was built may fallsince they no longer fit the XNUMXst century security environment. This conclusion seems quite logical and leads to the formulation of a new challenge: how could the United States straddle the inevitable wave of instability in the region, sending it in the required direction? In the United States, there is an understanding of the need to abandon a number of projects instead of solving the problem of maintaining the supporting structures of regional security of the Greater Middle East that cease to hold the load. The US, as an actor, cannot allow its status as a superpower and a dominant force in the geopolitical arena to be shaken. The theses on the main points of the US strategy in the Middle East are also quite characteristic. First of all, this is the thesis about the desirability of maintaining authoritarian regimes in key countries of the region (in Egypt, Iran, Syria). Despite the revolutionary change of power in several countries of the region and the advent of a new elite, the United States does not intend to contribute to the collapse of key countries, which threatens chaos and loss of control over regional processes. In the same context the assumption of a possible loss by Turkey of the secular nature of the state is interesting.
      http://www.regnum.ru/news/polit/1602930.html#ixzz2Fmgi2Bc4
      1. Egoza
        Egoza 22 December 2012 18: 26
        +5
        Quote: Kaa
        The British publishing house Burke's Peerage, specializing in genealogy issues, published data on Kerry's pedigree, and it turned out that among his ancestors was Tsar Ivan the Terrible


        IN! And then the "hand of Moscow"! good
        1. Lech e-mine
          Lech e-mine 23 December 2012 04: 12
          +3
          yeah bloody gebnya got to WASHINGTON. smile
      2. vezunchik
        vezunchik 22 December 2012 19: 01
        +1
        Everywhere our people ...
      3. Consmo
        Consmo 23 December 2012 04: 03
        +2
        Vanya seems to have no descendants. The branch of the Rurikovich was interrupted by his son. Then the Godunovs went. But not far away. If only higher in the tree, along the female line or the younger children of the Rurikovich.
        In short, they mow under our relatives.
        1. Navy7981
          Navy7981 24 December 2012 00: 39
          0
          Why? The descendants of the Rurikovich remained. Repnins, Baryatinsky, Shcherbatovs, Volkonsky, Gorchakovs, Dolgorukovs, Obolensky, Odoevsky, ... Just having lost power, they disappeared among the middle and small untitled nobility, and in other cases lost princely and grand-ducal titles. Yes, and anything is possible. An infinite number of probabilities.
    3. Garrin
      Garrin 22 December 2012 17: 02
      +3
      Quote: Leha e-mine
      It is beneficial for us that the United States get stuck in Afghanistan for a long time.

      This is another question. Maybe with their departure the flow of drugs to Russia will decrease. And even the amers are very worried about the Afghan dekhan growing poppy.
      1. s1н7т
        s1н7т 23 December 2012 15: 50
        0
        Quote: Garrin
        Maybe with their departure the flow of drugs to Russia will decrease.

        Only if we burn their crops, otherwise - no way. But someone else has to control so that it does not grow again. CSTO?
  2. stasuk
    stasuk 22 December 2012 10: 52
    +3
    The green piece of paper will collapse and the end to the Americans!
    1. alexng
      alexng 22 December 2012 11: 02
      +9
      I personally am ready to survive such an economic collapse, if only this evil empire (oh, I made two mistakes in the word - the USA should be read correctly) goes into oblivion.
    2. Lord of the Sith
      Lord of the Sith 22 December 2012 12: 35
      +1
      Tell me at home / on deposit dollars are stored for a rainy day?
      1. PN
        PN 22 December 2012 15: 40
        +2
        Exclusively rubas! laughing
      2. Castor oil
        Castor oil 22 December 2012 17: 06
        +1
        Quote: Sith Lord
        Tell me at home / on deposit dollars are stored for a rainy day?

        I do not have. wink If the dollar is not gone, it is definitely going. negative
        1. Lord of the Sith
          Lord of the Sith 22 December 2012 17: 11
          +2
          That's good. Give up dollars and there will be happiness.
          PS And minus I did not understand why.
          1. Castor oil
            Castor oil 22 December 2012 18: 33
            +1
            Quote: Sith Lord
            PS And minus I did not understand why.

            Is this someone in a hurry fool - do not pay attention smile
  3. Samsebenaum
    Samsebenaum 22 December 2012 10: 53
    +16
    Something is hard to believe in Fashington’s good intentions.
    Of course, wait and see, but the military-industrial lobby will press Congress with all its heart.
    It is not so easy to abandon the role of the world gendarme ...
    God grant that I should be mistaken in the diagnosis.
    1. alexng
      alexng 22 December 2012 11: 03
      +7
      Yeah, like, a suitcase without a handle: hard to carry and a pity to drop.
    2. botur2013
      botur2013 22 December 2012 11: 07
      +3
      Quote: Samsebenum
      It is not so easy to abandon the role of the world gendarme ...

      Here the question is more likely to arise, how to take away the legs.
    3. speedy
      speedy 22 December 2012 13: 00
      +10
      But it seems that these are the very bells, the states have overtaken as after Vietnam. And it’s not even that you don’t have to repay debts, but that nobody wants to give them — the BRICS countries agree in silence on mutual settlements in the nat. currency, followed by Japan ... soon everyone will run away from the dollar, but America has forgotten how to live - Bankruptcy ..., cost optimization, a social explosion, the search for the guilty, and finally the Independent Disconnected States of America ... and even forgot Friends Americas HURRY TO HELP !!!
  4. taseka
    taseka 22 December 2012 11: 01
    +6
    "And by the way, American clientele all over the world should consider their future. Suitcase, train station, Washington?" -However, it's high time !!!
  5. SmacXnumx
    SmacXnumx 22 December 2012 11: 19
    +3
    But will they bring democracy to the masses with just a word? Fresh giving and hard to believe.
  6. omsbon
    omsbon 22 December 2012 11: 26
    +3
    Starting a war is easier than ending it!
    Amers will have difficulties with any solution to the issue, but when choosing the option of curtailing military conflicts, all the same, there are fewer problems.
  7. Kibl
    Kibl 22 December 2012 11: 30
    +3
    It’s hard to believe all this, Leont'ev correctly remarked that I’m talking about the Israeli lobby! They really want instability in that explosive region, they spray like foam, they’re looking for enemies everywhere, so they’ll find about Iran they forgot while Syria is nightmare!
  8. Averias
    Averias 22 December 2012 11: 37
    +4
    To admit to the straight that they screwed up - they can’t, they don’t give ambitions. Recognizing the fact that the US government is defending the interests of anyone but its own people is the same. Nevertheless, they perfectly understand that the USA is agonizing, only they prefer to pretend that nothing is happening. What they hope for, a miracle will happen, and the US financial elites will pay off their debt and put up money for America’s prosperity - naive.
  9. old rocket man
    old rocket man 22 December 2012 12: 05
    +3
    Well, God forbid. Actually, American politics, in the past, has always been famous for its pragmatism and the ability to turn around 180 degrees. Indispensable qualities for a smart trader, and American politicians are still, for the most part, not fools.
    Actually, a reversal in foreign policy has matured a long time ago, but wait and see.
    Honestly, for me personally, these appointments are somewhat unexpected.
    But again, wait and see
    Of course, Leontiev is not a prophet, but his predictions are based on deep knowledge and are often justified.
  10. VadimSt
    VadimSt 22 December 2012 12: 10
    +3
    “I am very proud to announce my choice of the next US Secretary of State - John Kerry,” Obama said ...
    Let's see what changes, but the good news is that the candidacy of the hysterical Rice did not pass.
  11. Black
    Black 22 December 2012 12: 46
    +1
    Nothing will change! Absolutely nothing!!!
    The White House is a periscope, the submarine is sailing there, no one has changed at the helm.
    We need to learn from them constancy. And we are storming from leader to leader.
    1. sergey261180
      sergey261180 22 December 2012 13: 41
      -6
      We have instead of the submarine Titanic. And our helmsman you know who.
    2. Gluxar_
      Gluxar_ 22 December 2012 13: 59
      +7
      Quote: Chen
      Nothing will change! Absolutely nothing !!! The White House is a periscope, the submarine is sailing there, no one has changed at the helm. We need to learn from them constancy. And we are storming from leader to leader.

      The Americans have nothing to learn but to steal and kill the weaker ones. Their constancy lies in only one phrase "Profit at any cost". They have such an attitude instead of a soul.
      The problem of the United States is precisely that no one has changed in power for more than 50 years, the country is going downhill. But they still do not change course ... intoxicated by the "special role" of the American nation ... as well as the Aryan at one time and many other blind fanatics.
      1. s1н7т
        s1н7т 23 December 2012 15: 54
        0
        Quote: Gluxar_
        There is nothing to learn from Americans, except how to steal and kill the weaker.

        in our country this is happening inside the country, in their country abroad. or is there no difference?
  12. david210512
    david210512 22 December 2012 13: 43
    +3
    we just have to wait and I'm patient !!! smile
  13. not good
    not good 22 December 2012 13: 52
    +4
    The last US secretaries of state are one to one evil amateur clowns, maybe it's time to call a professional, I recommend JIM CARRY will do. quiet financing of the "liberation movement and cries of freedom. Say you see we are for peace and troops do not enter, but without us, your situation is even worse. There is no limit to the US hypocrite, and they certainly are not allies to us."
  14. sapulid
    sapulid 22 December 2012 15: 32
    +3
    Wishes are good, but:

    1. A conflict of interests between China and America is brewing in light of China's gain. Bases are needed around China, hence around the Russian Federation.
    2. The withdrawal of troops from satellite countries threatens to lose influence.
    3. Shale oil is more expensive to produce. All companies producing shale oil and gas have so far worked at a loss for a year, and they will not be able to mine on the shelf because of the disaster in the Gulf of Mexico, and simply NZ in case of war.
    4. US policy is not determined by the President. Confirmation, "Magnitsky List".
    5. The solution of the US debt burden is possible only by default or as a result of military conflict .. Default will lead to the collapse of the United States, therefore ....
  15. AleksUkr
    AleksUkr 22 December 2012 15: 40
    0
    Barack Obama described the congressman as "the ideal choice for leading American diplomacy for years to come."

    John Kerry is well known abroad, he managed to win "the respect and trust of colleagues around the world," the American leader said. In his assessment, Kerry "understands that we are responsible for the wise use of American power, especially military power."

    !!!!!!! THIS EVERYTHING IS SAID WHERE AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY WILL MOVE !!!!
    BUT ALL THESE ARE NOT FORMER GIRLS OF THE STATE DEPARTMENT. LET'S LIVE - WE SEE.


    The appointment of a new chief of American diplomacy must be approved by the Senate of Congress. Earlier, senators from both the ruling Democratic and the opposition Republican Parties publicly announced their intention to almost unanimously vote for John Kerry if she is nominated for the post of Secretary of State by the White House boss.
  16. sergo0000
    sergo0000 22 December 2012 16: 05
    +1
    And this is a problem for many. And by the way, an American client all over the world should think about his future. Suitcase, train station, Washington?
    We have half the trolls on the site for a long time thought about this! smile
    Less and less. Sometimes there is no one to argue with, let alone "exchange pleasantries"! laughing
    More and more on domestic politicians win back!
  17. Karabin
    Karabin 22 December 2012 16: 47
    +2
    Both candidates are Vietnamese veterans. And like all real veterans there is a persistent hostility to military adventures

    But in antiquity McCain did not see this. He's probably not a real veteran.

    America wants to negotiate for the first time in 30 years.

    I remember that about 4 years ago, the Clinton woman dragged the "overload" button and so what?
    New comrades from the same Caudle and ear must be kept sharp.
    1. WW3
      WW3 22 December 2012 17: 17
      +3
      Quote: Karabin
      Both candidates are Vietnamese veterans. And like all real veterans there is a persistent hostility to military adventures

      But in antiquity McCain did not see this. He's probably not a real veteran.

      What does McCain have to do with it? We are talking about John Kerry and Chuck Hagel in this article. If you are about Carrie then here is his photo from Vietnam
      1. Karabin
        Karabin 22 December 2012 23: 05
        +2
        Quote: WW3
        What does McCain have to do with it?

        “Both candidates are Vietnamese veterans. And like any real veteran, they have a strong dislike for military adventures."- M. Leontiev.
        Mr. Leontiev sometimes gets categorical assertions. Like real veterans, those who no longer want to get involved in adventures. That is, those Vietnam veterans who supported the invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan are no longer veterans or what? And here is McCain. As for Kerry, let's see how he is against adventures. It may turn out that McCain tearing into battle is just a peaceful dove.
    2. sergo0000
      sergo0000 22 December 2012 20: 52
      +1
      Karabin,
      McCain was a prisoner for several years. And this is a complex for the rest of his life! winked
      1. Karabin
        Karabin 22 December 2012 23: 15
        +1
        sergo0000,
        In addition to the downed pilot, among the veterans of Vietnam there are enough supporters of Amer’s actions after September 11.
    3. polly
      polly 23 December 2012 15: 30
      +1
      So there "OVERLOAD" was written - and that's it!
  18. WW3
    WW3 22 December 2012 17: 31
    +3
    America wants to negotiate for the first time in 30 years. And America will leave from wherever it can leave. The world gendarme is trying to remove the excessive gendarme functions.

    It looks like the Pentagon’s budget will be cut back again ... Debt of 17 trillion. makes itself felt ...
    And this is a problem for many. And by the way, an American client all over the world should think about his future. Suitcase, train station, Washington?

    Sprouts of shit democracy did not take root after the Arab spring .... Amers need a reboot - something broke in their global strategy ....
  19. georg737577
    georg737577 22 December 2012 18: 15
    +3
    Personally, I have not believed statements by the governments of ANY country for a long time. They always say one thing, but only time will tell what really lies behind it.
  20. sergskak
    sergskak 22 December 2012 21: 22
    +2
    Self-respecting people don’t put their hands on an empty head. Although they are all so (stupid)! Such would come to me. On the GUUBA right away: to dry the platy with filings and sweep the crowbar!
  21. homosum20
    homosum20 22 December 2012 22: 18
    0
    Leontiev is a realist.
    I'd like to believe in his forecast.
    1. Karabin
      Karabin 22 December 2012 23: 09
      +2
      Quote: homosum20
      Leontiev the realist

      Leontiev journalist. Over the course of his career, he has given so many predictions, some sort of one, may he come true.
  22. homosum20
    homosum20 22 December 2012 22: 38
    0
    To the one who set the minus - do you like war?
    1. s1н7т
      s1н7т 23 December 2012 16: 05
      0
      Quote: homosum20
      To the one who set the minus - do you like war?

      No, absolutely! But to believe is the destiny of those incapable of independent thinking. But Leont'ev is a realist, of course, once still afloat laughing But this applies only to its place under the sun, otherwise it is not very different from all of us.
  23. dropout
    dropout 23 December 2012 00: 23
    +1
    Leontiev clever / of course the head /. But it seems to me that his optimism is somewhat premature.
  24. radio operator
    radio operator 23 December 2012 12: 36
    0
    Well then, let's see. How the Yankees will behave.
  25. s1н7т
    s1н7т 23 December 2012 16: 10
    0
    The Yankees are the executors of the will of the Fed and those who stand behind it. And as the classic taught - where it smells of profit, there is no conscience, no law. They will repaint, reboot and continue. Not the USA (people) is our enemy, but those who are behind them.