Japan and Russia: where does friendship come from?
The other day elections were held in the Land of the Rising Sun. The Liberal Democratic Party of Japan (LDPYA) and its traditional coalition partner, the Komeito Party - got 325 of 480 seats in the lower house of parliament (67,7%).
Since the leader of the winning party “automatically” becomes the new prime minister, then 19 will be the Prime Minister of Japan over the past twenty-three years, Shinzo Abe. Formally, he will be elected at an extraordinary session of the parliament of December 26.
Some lines of the interests of the party, as well as the Japanese people, have already been identified by the candidate for premiere.
First, after the LDPY’s victory in the elections, he said that strengthening the military alliance with Washington would be one of the priorities of the new government. He said that in January, will go to the United States.
Secondly, at the press conference, Shinzo Abe made a rather loud statement about the solution of the “problem” of the South Kuriles. is he сказал:
Shinzo Abe also said that he hopes for the improvement of Russian-Japanese bilateral relations and is ready for dialogue with the leadership of the Russian Federation.
In addition, the leader of the liberal Democrats He pledged take a tough stance on some sensitive international issues, for example. on the islands of the Senkaku (Diaoyu) archipelago in the East China Sea.
At the same time, Mr. Abe is going to stop deflation (not to be confused with inflation). He plans to restrain the growth of the yen, so that his country, focused on the global economy, could earn more on exports.
Another candidate for prime minister suggests investing more in infrastructure development and maintenance.
How will the relations between Russia and Japan with the new Prime Minister? How to "translate" the intention of Shinzo Abe to solve the Kuril "problem"?
According to the head of the Center for Japanese Studies of the Institute of Far Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Valery Kistanov, who was interviewed by M. Ozherelev on December 17"Voice of Russia"), Mr. Abe, speaking about improving relations with Russia, is quite difficult to understand. Indeed, according to the analyst, “relations between Russia and Japan do not converge in any way over the South Kuril Islands.” The scientist says:
When and in what form a compromise will be found is very difficult to say now. It’s also hard to say how ready Abe is to improve relations with Russia and what he will do in this direction, because just a week ago he published an article in one of Japan’s very reputable magazines, where he outlined his program of seeing Japan after he came to power. ”
And here in this, as they say, “topical” article, Mr. Abe very sharply criticized the Democratic Party for “two failures in diplomacy.”
Failure # XXNX - the visit of President Dmitry Medvedev to Kunashir Island. Failure #1 - visit in August of the current year by Lee Myung-bak, President of South Korea, to the Takeshima Islands (Tokdo).
It is hardly possible to expect improvements from Abe, the expert notes, if he will oppose the visits of Russian leaders to the South Kuril Islands.
Valery Kistanov suggests that Abe will most likely try not to bring the territorial issue to the fore:
In addition, the key priority for Abe is relations with the United States - that’s why he will fly there first. As for Mr. Abe’s probable visit to Moscow, then again, it’s difficult to assume anything. The analyst says the following on this topic:
It is extremely rare for Japanese political leaders to come to Russia. Prime ministers of the Land of the Rising Sun have not been to Moscow for a long time, Kistanov indicates. The last time was the visit of Prime Minister Koizumi - in 2003. There is a “negative record”: for nine years not a single Japanese Prime Minister has visited Russia on an official visit. This indicates, the analyst notes, that Russia occupies a not very high place in Japan’s foreign policy priorities.
"Positive" here may be that Abe will not go to the new "record", that is, will not bring the old to 10 years.
According to Professor Hosei Nobuo Shimotomai University (interview T. Hlon, H. Yasumoto, "Voice of Russia"), relations with Russia may well become a priority of the policy of the new Cabinet of Ministers of Japan:
Famous Japanese journalist Kazutak Iijima generally agrees with the professor:
However, such “positive” statements are at variance with the Abe policies outlined in the article mentioned above. What about the “hardness” and criticism of those political opponents of Abe’s rivals who, in his opinion, turned out to be too soft in the Kuril issue?
Russian experts believe that the position of the new prime minister in relation to territorial disputes, including the Kuril ones, will be more rigid.
The same Valery Kistanov reminds:
Expert Andrei Fesyun believes that Japanese diplomacy will not change the position on the southern Kuriles, but will try to avoid sharp aggravations in the dialogue with Moscow. The main thing is not a territorial dispute, but the economy:
In an editorial China Daily December 18 states that the Japanese elections were closely watched not only by China, but also by South Korea and Russia — that is, all countries with which Japan has territorial disputes. Japanese voters, the authors of the article write, decided that they want to deal with these problems in the near future.
The electorate chose the LDPI because over the past three years, the Japanese people have suffered from many disasters - especially from the earthquake, tsunami and the Fukushima nuclear crisis - and, most importantly, from lack of confidence due to the slowdown in economic growth. The Democratic Party of Japan was "punished" by voters. The electorate has returned to the LDPY - despite the fact that this “hawk” party may increase tensions with China, now Japan’s main competitor, and at the same time its main economic partner.
Like most analysts who make predictions about Russia and Japan, Chinese journalists, who are also aware of S. Abe’s likely territorial “tough” policy, admit to Japanese politics, starting with China and ending with Russia, more pragmatism than hostility.
Dr. Das Kundu Nivedita, Assistant Director of the Indian Council for Research in Social Sciences (New Delhi), Fellow at York University in Toronto, Canada, over the territorial dispute between Japan and Russia expresses following opinion.
Given the increased activity of the naval forces in the region, the strategic importance of the Kuril Islands has increased in recent years. After all, the South Kuril Islands - Kunashir, Shikotan, Habomai and Iturup - which are under the jurisdiction of Russia after the end of World War II, form strategic borders between the Russian Sea of Okhotsk and the Pacific Ocean.
In addition, the four islands are rich in natural and energy resources. Recently, the analyst writes, Moscow has begun to replace the territorial dispute with the principle of “Sankei bunri” (a policy separate from the economy) and to consider Japan as its partner. This also applies to the Russian programs for the development of the Far East. We are talking about the development of close trade and economic ties in the region, especially in the energy sector.
Nevertheless, the question on the South Kuriles reflects the deep contradictions that exist between the two sides. The problem creates a difficult situation for both Russia and Japan, the expert believes.
The scientist recalls that in 1956, the Soviet Union and Japan signed a joint declaration that put an end to the state of war between the two countries. The question was raised about the possibility of returning the two islands to the Japanese - Shikotan and Habomai. However, this could have happened in the event, the analyst writes, when a peace treaty would have been concluded. But the irony is that before the peace treaty has not yet been signed, and the debate continues. Although the joint declaration was ratified by both sides, the debate about what Japan calls “its northern territories” remains a stumbling block for the conclusion of a peace treaty.
Later, the Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, recognized the Southern Kuriles as a disputed territory. The Japanese were already hoping to get a little territorial "positive", listening to the long speeches of the socialist secretary general, especially those periods, where they spoke about "interest in solving some controversial issues", but ... In 1993, President Boris Yeltsin noted that the 1956 declaration of the year remains plans are accepted. His words reawakened dormant Japanese hopes. However, this statement did not bring any concrete results.
As for President Putin, he, the expert reminds, in his first term also confirmed the declaration of 1956 of the year and acknowledged that there is a dispute over four islands. He attempted to resolve the issue with Japan through negotiations based on the 1956 declaration of the year. But all this was delayed for many years.
And at the beginning of 2005, Russian officials began to argue that the islands belong to Russia, and that Japan should recognize Russia's sovereignty over all four islands - before proceeding to further discussion of this topic. Russia also stated that the legitimacy of claims to the islands is not an open question. Moscow thus wanted Tokyo to recognize its right to the islands — and only then would the negotiations begin, as a result of which Japan might have tried to acquire some of the islands.
In addition, Japan has complicated the issue of scandal. When Russian President Dmitry Medvedev visited the islands, then Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan called his visit "unforgivable rudeness."
What is Japan doing now?
Das Kundu Nivedita believes that modern Japanese leaders are trying to establish partnership relations with Russia on a wide range of issues without using arguments about disputed island territories.
After all, for Japan, Russia may become a necessary ally in the matter of preventing Chinese domination in East Asia. Japan is interested in access to Russian gas and oil - from Siberian and Sakhalin fields. Last year, Japanese leaders announced that they were ready to consider the possibility of participating in joint economic activities in the Southern Kuriles, unless such activities had a negative impact on Japan’s claims to the disputed territories. The leadership of Japan understands that it will not be possible to resolve the territorial disputes immediately, and therefore it is unlikely to allow the cooperation of the two countries to suffer.
According to the analyst, now the situation is such that both countries are unable to either solve or complicate the island issue. Currently, political elites in both countries are unable to make unpopular decisions and translate public discourse in favor of some new initiatives. "The regime of President Putin," the expert writes, cannot take any decisions on this issue today. The Japanese government was also weakened by decades of slow economic growth and popular discontent, expressed in the form of protests against widespread corruption among the political and business elite. In addition, in 2011, the tsunami and the “nuclear crisis” destroyed the remnants of trust in the government among the Japanese public. New leaders will not take the big risk of unpopular foreign policy initiatives that may have negative consequences.
How to find a solution?
His analyst sees in the "creative approach."
Of course, there is no war between Japan and Russia, despite the fact that the two countries do not seem to be able to build normal relations by concluding a mutually acceptable peace treaty, which must be acknowledged long overdue. Therefore, both parties must be creative in finding a mutually acceptable solution that could put an end to the territorial dispute. And here it is important to continue the negotiation efforts.
At present, the analyst writes, Russian-Japanese trade and the flow of investments are very small, although the potential here is just high. To expand trade and economic relations today there are plenty of opportunities - both in Japan and in Russia. However, both states are extremely cautious when investing in each other’s territories.
Finally, it is important to build trusting mutual relations and “push” the territorial dispute aside.
Warm relations between Russia and Japan are of interest to all other countries in the region. From the point of view of maintaining peace and security in the region, a soft solution to the existing island issue is in the interests of all countries.
So, in order to “gently” approach a long territorial dispute, Tokyo and Moscow, according to experts and analysts, should first focus not on the dispute itself and the immediate search for a solution, but on bilateral economic cooperation, probably focusing on regional integration. . Only in this case is possible that “positive” in relations, which is expected in both Russia and Japan.
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