The other day elections were held in the Land of the Rising Sun. The Liberal Democratic Party of Japan (LDPYA) and its traditional coalition partner, the Komeito Party - got 325 of 480 seats in the lower house of parliament (67,7%).
Since the leader of the winning party “automatically” becomes the new prime minister, then 19 will be the Prime Minister of Japan over the past twenty-three years, Shinzo Abe. Formally, he will be elected at an extraordinary session of the parliament of December 26.
Some lines of the interests of the party, as well as the Japanese people, have already been identified by the candidate for premiere.
First, after the LDPY’s victory in the elections, he said that strengthening the military alliance with Washington would be one of the priorities of the new government. He said that in January, will go to the United States.
Secondly, at the press conference, Shinzo Abe made a rather loud statement about the solution of the “problem” of the South Kuriles. is he сказал:
"I expect to solve the territorial problem between our countries and sign a peace treaty."
Shinzo Abe also said that he hopes for the improvement of Russian-Japanese bilateral relations and is ready for dialogue with the leadership of the Russian Federation.
In addition, the leader of the liberal Democrats He pledged take a tough stance on some sensitive international issues, for example. on the islands of the Senkaku (Diaoyu) archipelago in the East China Sea.
At the same time, Mr. Abe is going to stop deflation (not to be confused with inflation). He plans to restrain the growth of the yen, so that his country, focused on the global economy, could earn more on exports.
Another candidate for prime minister suggests investing more in infrastructure development and maintenance.
How will the relations between Russia and Japan with the new Prime Minister? How to "translate" the intention of Shinzo Abe to solve the Kuril "problem"?
According to the head of the Center for Japanese Studies of the Institute of Far Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Valery Kistanov, who was interviewed by M. Ozherelev on December 17"Voice of Russia"), Mr. Abe, speaking about improving relations with Russia, is quite difficult to understand. Indeed, according to the analyst, “relations between Russia and Japan do not converge in any way over the South Kuril Islands.” The scientist says:
“Russia, through the mouth of Putin, has recently again confirmed its readiness to seek compromises on this issue. But it should be based on the Soviet-Japanese declaration of 1956 of the year, which provides for the transfer of two islands - Habomai and Shikotan - after the signing of a peace treaty. Japan is not satisfied. She demands that Russia return all four islands.
When and in what form a compromise will be found is very difficult to say now. It’s also hard to say how ready Abe is to improve relations with Russia and what he will do in this direction, because just a week ago he published an article in one of Japan’s very reputable magazines, where he outlined his program of seeing Japan after he came to power. ”
When and in what form a compromise will be found is very difficult to say now. It’s also hard to say how ready Abe is to improve relations with Russia and what he will do in this direction, because just a week ago he published an article in one of Japan’s very reputable magazines, where he outlined his program of seeing Japan after he came to power. ”
And here in this, as they say, “topical” article, Mr. Abe very sharply criticized the Democratic Party for “two failures in diplomacy.”
Failure # XXNX - the visit of President Dmitry Medvedev to Kunashir Island. Failure #1 - visit in August of the current year by Lee Myung-bak, President of South Korea, to the Takeshima Islands (Tokdo).
It is hardly possible to expect improvements from Abe, the expert notes, if he will oppose the visits of Russian leaders to the South Kuril Islands.
Valery Kistanov suggests that Abe will most likely try not to bring the territorial issue to the fore:
“Probably, it would be right for him to push this problem a little bit aside and try to develop relations in other spheres - first of all in the sphere of economy and culture. I think that Abe is not interested in the fact that now relations with Russia are worsening or aggravated against the background of what is happening in Japanese-Chinese relations ... ”
In addition, the key priority for Abe is relations with the United States - that’s why he will fly there first. As for Mr. Abe’s probable visit to Moscow, then again, it’s difficult to assume anything. The analyst says the following on this topic:
“However, we see that in January, Abe is not going to Russia. He did not pick up this baton at the node, he was going to the USA. The second priority for him is China. China is significantly more important to Japan than Russia. I think Russia is in third place after the United States and China. But I don’t think that the visit will be delayed for a very long time. ”
It is extremely rare for Japanese political leaders to come to Russia. Prime ministers of the Land of the Rising Sun have not been to Moscow for a long time, Kistanov indicates. The last time was the visit of Prime Minister Koizumi - in 2003. There is a “negative record”: for nine years not a single Japanese Prime Minister has visited Russia on an official visit. This indicates, the analyst notes, that Russia occupies a not very high place in Japan’s foreign policy priorities.
"Positive" here may be that Abe will not go to the new "record", that is, will not bring the old to 10 years.
"But if he comes here, and they and Vladimir Putin talk in a relaxed atmosphere about the territorial problem, about the peace treaty, it will already be positive."
According to Professor Hosei Nobuo Shimotomai University (interview T. Hlon, H. Yasumoto, "Voice of Russia"), relations with Russia may well become a priority of the policy of the new Cabinet of Ministers of Japan:
“... As for relations with Russia, against the background of aggravated relations with China, I think Japanese-Russian cooperation has good prospects. In addition, Abe already has experience in diplomacy with Russia, so relations with the Russian Federation may even become a certain priority of his cabinet policy, as he does not want to aggravate relations over the territorial issue, as is currently the case with China. ”
Famous Japanese journalist Kazutak Iijima generally agrees with the professor:
“As far as Abe is concerned, he must deal first of all with the exacerbation of the situation with China and South Korea. But the most important issue is the restoration of strategic relations with the United States. In this context, he will deal with Russia after solving the first issues on the agenda of his strategic course. However, Russia today considers the development of Siberia and the Far East to be an important direction, and mutual cooperation with Japan is very important. Therefore, Abe should quickly draw up a concrete plan on how to push forward cooperation with Russia and at the same time solve the territorial problem. ”
However, such “positive” statements are at variance with the Abe policies outlined in the article mentioned above. What about the “hardness” and criticism of those political opponents of Abe’s rivals who, in his opinion, turned out to be too soft in the Kuril issue?
Russian experts believe that the position of the new prime minister in relation to territorial disputes, including the Kuril ones, will be more rigid.
The same Valery Kistanov reminds:
“Abe very much criticizes the Democrats for the so-called failures in foreign policy, because of which Japan’s relations with the United States deteriorated, while China immediately began to be active on the Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu). At the DPJ, the visits of the previous President of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Medvedev, to Kunashir and the South Korean President to the Takeshima Islands took place. Last Monday, Abe in Bungei Shunju magazine published an article on 10 pages, in which he outlined his vision of the future of Japan, which he intends to realize. There he directly writes that these two visits were major failures in Japan’s foreign policy, which he is going to somehow eliminate. From this we can conclude that, most likely, Japan’s foreign policy will become tougher ... "
Expert Andrei Fesyun believes that Japanese diplomacy will not change the position on the southern Kuriles, but will try to avoid sharp aggravations in the dialogue with Moscow. The main thing is not a territorial dispute, but the economy:
“In foreign policy, Japan due to aggravation with China, and with South Korea, is in an extremely difficult situation today. And in this situation, it is extremely unprofitable for her to deteriorate relations with Russia. On the contrary, most likely Japan will strive to improve them, or at least make them warmer. At least due to some joint large-scale economic projects. ”
In an editorial China Daily December 18 states that the Japanese elections were closely watched not only by China, but also by South Korea and Russia — that is, all countries with which Japan has territorial disputes. Japanese voters, the authors of the article write, decided that they want to deal with these problems in the near future.
The electorate chose the LDPI because over the past three years, the Japanese people have suffered from many disasters - especially from the earthquake, tsunami and the Fukushima nuclear crisis - and, most importantly, from lack of confidence due to the slowdown in economic growth. The Democratic Party of Japan was "punished" by voters. The electorate has returned to the LDPY - despite the fact that this “hawk” party may increase tensions with China, now Japan’s main competitor, and at the same time its main economic partner.
Like most analysts who make predictions about Russia and Japan, Chinese journalists, who are also aware of S. Abe’s likely territorial “tough” policy, admit to Japanese politics, starting with China and ending with Russia, more pragmatism than hostility.
Dr. Das Kundu Nivedita, Assistant Director of the Indian Council for Research in Social Sciences (New Delhi), Fellow at York University in Toronto, Canada, over the territorial dispute between Japan and Russia expresses following opinion.
Given the increased activity of the naval forces in the region, the strategic importance of the Kuril Islands has increased in recent years. After all, the South Kuril Islands - Kunashir, Shikotan, Habomai and Iturup - which are under the jurisdiction of Russia after the end of World War II, form strategic borders between the Russian Sea of Okhotsk and the Pacific Ocean.
In addition, the four islands are rich in natural and energy resources. Recently, the analyst writes, Moscow has begun to replace the territorial dispute with the principle of “Sankei bunri” (a policy separate from the economy) and to consider Japan as its partner. This also applies to the Russian programs for the development of the Far East. We are talking about the development of close trade and economic ties in the region, especially in the energy sector.
Nevertheless, the question on the South Kuriles reflects the deep contradictions that exist between the two sides. The problem creates a difficult situation for both Russia and Japan, the expert believes.
The scientist recalls that in 1956, the Soviet Union and Japan signed a joint declaration that put an end to the state of war between the two countries. The question was raised about the possibility of returning the two islands to the Japanese - Shikotan and Habomai. However, this could have happened in the event, the analyst writes, when a peace treaty would have been concluded. But the irony is that before the peace treaty has not yet been signed, and the debate continues. Although the joint declaration was ratified by both sides, the debate about what Japan calls “its northern territories” remains a stumbling block for the conclusion of a peace treaty.
Later, the Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, recognized the Southern Kuriles as a disputed territory. The Japanese were already hoping to get a little territorial "positive", listening to the long speeches of the socialist secretary general, especially those periods, where they spoke about "interest in solving some controversial issues", but ... In 1993, President Boris Yeltsin noted that the 1956 declaration of the year remains plans are accepted. His words reawakened dormant Japanese hopes. However, this statement did not bring any concrete results.
As for President Putin, he, the expert reminds, in his first term also confirmed the declaration of 1956 of the year and acknowledged that there is a dispute over four islands. He attempted to resolve the issue with Japan through negotiations based on the 1956 declaration of the year. But all this was delayed for many years.
And at the beginning of 2005, Russian officials began to argue that the islands belong to Russia, and that Japan should recognize Russia's sovereignty over all four islands - before proceeding to further discussion of this topic. Russia also stated that the legitimacy of claims to the islands is not an open question. Moscow thus wanted Tokyo to recognize its right to the islands — and only then would the negotiations begin, as a result of which Japan might have tried to acquire some of the islands.
In addition, Japan has complicated the issue of scandal. When Russian President Dmitry Medvedev visited the islands, then Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan called his visit "unforgivable rudeness."
What is Japan doing now?
Das Kundu Nivedita believes that modern Japanese leaders are trying to establish partnership relations with Russia on a wide range of issues without using arguments about disputed island territories.
After all, for Japan, Russia may become a necessary ally in the matter of preventing Chinese domination in East Asia. Japan is interested in access to Russian gas and oil - from Siberian and Sakhalin fields. Last year, Japanese leaders announced that they were ready to consider the possibility of participating in joint economic activities in the Southern Kuriles, unless such activities had a negative impact on Japan’s claims to the disputed territories. The leadership of Japan understands that it will not be possible to resolve the territorial disputes immediately, and therefore it is unlikely to allow the cooperation of the two countries to suffer.
According to the analyst, now the situation is such that both countries are unable to either solve or complicate the island issue. Currently, political elites in both countries are unable to make unpopular decisions and translate public discourse in favor of some new initiatives. "The regime of President Putin," the expert writes, cannot take any decisions on this issue today. The Japanese government was also weakened by decades of slow economic growth and popular discontent, expressed in the form of protests against widespread corruption among the political and business elite. In addition, in 2011, the tsunami and the “nuclear crisis” destroyed the remnants of trust in the government among the Japanese public. New leaders will not take the big risk of unpopular foreign policy initiatives that may have negative consequences.
How to find a solution?
His analyst sees in the "creative approach."
Of course, there is no war between Japan and Russia, despite the fact that the two countries do not seem to be able to build normal relations by concluding a mutually acceptable peace treaty, which must be acknowledged long overdue. Therefore, both parties must be creative in finding a mutually acceptable solution that could put an end to the territorial dispute. And here it is important to continue the negotiation efforts.
At present, the analyst writes, Russian-Japanese trade and the flow of investments are very small, although the potential here is just high. To expand trade and economic relations today there are plenty of opportunities - both in Japan and in Russia. However, both states are extremely cautious when investing in each other’s territories.
Finally, it is important to build trusting mutual relations and “push” the territorial dispute aside.
Warm relations between Russia and Japan are of interest to all other countries in the region. From the point of view of maintaining peace and security in the region, a soft solution to the existing island issue is in the interests of all countries.
So, in order to “gently” approach a long territorial dispute, Tokyo and Moscow, according to experts and analysts, should first focus not on the dispute itself and the immediate search for a solution, but on bilateral economic cooperation, probably focusing on regional integration. . Only in this case is possible that “positive” in relations, which is expected in both Russia and Japan.
Observed and translated by Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru