NATO and Ukraine: Impossible alliance options

technical signal

In the West, a surprising situation has developed regarding Ukraine's membership in NATO. For the immediate entry of the country into the North Atlantic Alliance, there are characters on whom there is no responsibility. For example, Tom Malinowski, a former congressman, believes that yesterday Ukraine should have been included in the alliance. Without any additional conditions. The speaker perfectly understands the prospects for a possible war with Russia in this case, but “democratic Ukraine” is much more important to him. Malinowski's rhetoric is not completely clear - whether his Polish roots boil the blood, or the desire to become famous, or early onset dementia.

Be that as it may, NATO tries not to listen to such voices. Brussels and Washington are completely satisfied with the current situation - Russian and Ukrainian soldiers are dying on the very edge of Eastern Europe, and the rest are just throwing firewood into the conflict. So that it does not accidentally fade. And the latest NATO meeting in Vilnius confirmed this once again.

Everything is too vague in the final document - “partners will provide more defense equipment, increase and accelerate intelligence sharing, increase support for defense against cyber and hybrid threats, expand training programs and military exercises, and develop Ukraine’s industrial base.” The summit in the Baltics could not have been held - Zelensky is now “vitally in need” of protection from cyber threats, military exercises and updated intelligence. The Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot break through the first line of defense in Zaporizhzhia, while NATO is playing with abstract categories.

Zelensky's hysteria in this regard in Vilnius is completely justified. As early as last year, Kiev could cherish the hope of at least a tactical defeat for Russia. For example, in the manner of the Kharkov retreat. The events of the summer of 2023 show the opposite - Ukraine is not able to turn the tide of the conflict on its own. This requires either a lot of time to retrain personnel and form new strike groups, or direct NATO intervention.

Shooting through the length and breadth of Russian missiles, Ukraine will not wait for either the first or the second option. Zelensky was made to understand this quite definitely in Vilnius, after which he called the final communiqué a “technical signal.” On that they parted.

German variant

The alliance now includes 31 countries. Small players such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are now hypothetically ready to approve Ukraine's NATO membership. Purely hypothetically, we repeat. In any scenario of the world's turmoil, the Baltics will not do well - therefore, why not play the role of a caring neighbor of Ukraine.

The Poles can still present themselves as brothers forever. Even now, they are in every possible way inciting Biden to agree to Ukraine's entry into the alliance as soon as possible. Radosław Vogel, Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Polish Parliament: “We want to implement, start giving our American partners the idea that Ukraine as a member of NATO is something inevitable in the future.”

Actually, that's all - other states in a sober state will never approve the emergence of a new participant, for which they will have to bear collective responsibility. At least until the completion of the Russian special operation. Jake Sullivan, Biden's national security adviser, confuses everyone:

“In the end, we declared to NATO very simply: the future of Ukraine is in NATO. This is non-negotiable. This is what we agreed on."

Indeed, the doors of the alliance are open to Kyiv. One snag - you need to defeat Russia. No other way.

Interestingly, until February last year, such categoricalness did not exist in NATO - sooner or later Ukraine would have been accepted into the alliance. Only Russia's preventive measures forever put the enemy in the rank of NATO hostage. If Washington now approves Ukraine's entry into the military bloc, other players will immediately fall out of it. Will Hungary or Türkiye wait for a nuclear war with Russia? The question is rhetorical.

Kiev is delirious with the idea of ​​a German version of joining a military alliance.

We are talking about 1955, when the FRG was admitted to NATO in defiance of the demand "to resolve the territorial dispute." Recall that at that time there was also a socialist GDR, created from the Soviet zone of occupation of Germany. Formally, Germany was divided into two parts. But this in no way prevented Washington from including the western part in the military alliance.

It seems to many that this option looks very good for Ukraine. It is enough for Zelensky, like Adenauer in his time, to sign a piece of paper on peaceful reunification with Crimea and the eastern territories, as the Armed Forces of Ukraine will begin the process of transformation into the NATO army. This is called "conflict resolution in accordance with OSCE principles."

Will the president of Ukraine ever be ready for something like this and, most importantly, is Russia ready for peace talks in this status?

Kyiv prudently did not declare war on Russia, leaving itself a chance to join the alliance. But this seems to be all that the Nazi regime in Ukraine is ready to sacrifice.

In addition to the above, there are difficulties with the demarcation of territories. How will Zelensky, in accordance with the "German version", define new Russian regions - according to the official map or along the current front line? Russia will quite rightly never agree to the second option, and the first one will be suicidal for the Kyiv regime.

Israeli case

Following the results of Vilnius-2023, Ukraine did not receive hope for the “German scenario”, but now there is no question even of the Israeli case. The Americans, with a company of leading powers, could provide a significant military-technological advantage for Ukraine over the enemy. By analogy, as Israel is now supplied. Everyone remembers that the Israeli army is not so strong because of its exclusivity, but only due to the unprecedented support of America. But there are two snags in direct transfer stories to Ukraine.

First, Israel with a nuclear weapons, which seriously limits the capabilities of opponents - be it Iran or the Palestinians.

Secondly, Russia is a much more powerful opponent than all of Israel's enemies put together.

The most balanced point of view is broadcast by The National Interest, which convinces of the inferiority of attempts to drag Ukraine into NATO. The spectacle has become a chronic waste of time that could be spent trying to resolve the conflict on the diplomatic front.

A good application of common sense, but it seems that Kyiv is not yet ready for this. Time must pass, which Zelensky has less and less.

Comments

[andrewkor]

No one will convince me that Russia is devouring the fruits of its vague policy in Little Russia since the bloodless annexation of Crimea. The republics of Donbass were left without significant support for 8 years. The vague strategy of the NWO with the goals announced by the GDP led to even greater casualties even on the native lands of Russia right up to the Volga region. ,ria and then with a share of skepticism.

[Krasavchag2]

For 8 years, bright heads in the capital believed that someone was waiting for them there with flowers. It turned out that there are such people, but they are all already in Russia. And of course, Medvedchuk was looking forward to it! But they managed to exchange him for dozens of Ukrainian prisoners of war, he is a very valuable shot.

[parusnik]

Ukraine, closed its door to NATO, back in 2014, after the Crimea, Donbass ..

[Vladimir80]

Ukraine, closed its door to NATO, back in 2014, after the Crimea, Donbass

but it seems to me the opposite, the shelling of Lugansk and Donetsk in 2014 is like an oath of allegiance to the new owner (NATO)

[Nikolay Malyugin]

What prevents Ukraine from getting out of this confrontation dry? The main enemy of this country is exorbitant nationalism. Declare yourself neutral, declare that there will be no foreign weapons on your territory, and you will receive trump cards in future negotiations. Petty nationalism interferes with your own. There have been many examples in history when cities, principalities declared themselves neutral , and were protected by the warring parties. Language. In Switzerland, different cantons speak different languages. And no one cares. But it will not work in Ukraine. Nationalist obstinacy interferes.

[Non-fighter]

I forgot the most important thing - that WE believe in it. After the deception with the Minsk agreements and the grain deal, it is difficult for me to imagine interim measures for the implementation of this agreement. Otherwise - "State Border" 2 series + regular shelling.

[rotmistr60]

the doors of the alliance are open to Kyiv. One catch - you need to defeat Russia

This is the main snag that Kyiv cannot cope with even with the help of "friends of Ukraine." "Caution, the doors are closing. The next station is the division of Ukraine."

[parusnik]

At one time, few people recognized the entry of Bosnia and Herzegovina into the Austro-Hungarian Empire, some countries believed that these lands were occupied. Modernity, Israel, occupied the Golan Heights, Palestine, someone recognizes, someone does not, Israel, I didn’t become a pariah. And they won’t divide Ukraine. The redistribution of borders will begin in Europe, NATO won’t go to war with itself, and the Eastern European states have territorial claims against each other.

[Yuri Vasilyev]

Ukraine, in fact, is already in NATO, with the only difference that NATO does not bear any responsibility for it. Therefore, it makes no sense for them to accept it officially. Moreover, this is impossible according to their own charter: warring countries cannot be accepted into the alliance, including countries that have territorial problems with their neighbors.

[Vladimir80]

The most balanced point of view is broadcast by The National Interest, which convinces of the inferiority of attempts to drag Ukraine into NATO

is this "publication somewhere other than the Russian Federation read and quoted ???

The magazine's publisher and chief executive officer is Dmitry Simes,[10] a Soviet-born American political scientist specializing in Russia. He is known for bringing former US President Richard Nixon to a meeting with Mikhail Gorbachev during the Soviet era. Since September 2018, Simes, together with Vyacheslav Nikonov, a member of the State Duma of the VI and VII convocations from United Russia, has been hosting the social and political talk show The Big Game on Russian Channel One

[kor1vet1974]

Ukraine would sooner or later be accepted into the alliance.

Until 2014. And how would you receive it? Would they recognize Donbass, Crimea as occupied territories and declare war on Russia, officially? And on the eve of preventive measures, did Ukraine apply to NATO? Like Sweden, Finland? And then, it was impossible to do it easier, not after 8 years to recognize the LDNR, but during this time? What was so out of the ordinary? The Russian Federation recognizes the two Koreas? North and South?

[Tagan]

Quote: Vladimir80

The most balanced point of view is broadcast by The National Interest, which convinces of the inferiority of attempts to drag Ukraine into NATO

is this "publication somewhere other than the Russian Federation read and quoted ???

The magazine's publisher and chief executive officer is Dmitry Simes,[10] a Soviet-born American political scientist specializing in Russia. He is known for bringing former US President Richard Nixon to a meeting with Mikhail Gorbachev during the Soviet era. Since September 2018, Simes, together with Vyacheslav Nikonov, a member of the State Duma of the VI and VII convocations from United Russia, has been hosting the social and political talk show The Big Game on Russian Channel One

You apparently wanted to belittle this person a little, focusing on direct participation in a talk show, which is like a half-truth (as you like))). But what you pulled is far from everything.

In 1994, he was appointed by former US President Richard Nixon as chairman and chief executive officer of the Center for the National Interest in Washington. He was an unofficial foreign policy adviser to Richard Nixon in the last years of his life.

He has directed the Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at the Carnegie Endowment and has been a professor at Johns Hopkins University, Columbia University, and the University of California at Berkeley.

[Dartik]

It feels like everything we do is only making things worse...

[Krasavchag2]

It's hard to argue with that, each next move is worse than the previous one.