Military Review

New forecasts from American intelligence: the imminent disintegration of Turkey and the troubles in Russia

Sometimes it is just striking the thrust of Western "partners" to predict various kinds. With enviable regularity comes the information that they managed to forecast some experts on all sorts of reasons. Probably, such personalities as Wanga and Nostradamus today could envy the productivity and creativity, for example, of American forecasters who are ready to predict everything: from the possibility of increasing yields of Asian Yak females to the frequency of the “world ends” for the next 20-30 years.

Another forecast was noted by such an organization as the National Intelligence Council of the United States of America (DNI), which allowed herself to talk about how the world will look like by 2030 year. Such work in the United States is carried out once every four years and is aimed at ensuring that the authorities of this state can be ready for new challenges. It does not matter that the lion’s share of DNI forecasts does not come true, but many ordinary citizens still take the forecasts, at least in the US, seriously. Why, there are citizens there - the authorities are also quite thoroughly accustomed to the prophecies that come from the 16 intelligence organizations of the most different jurisdictions. All this information by people, especially “dedicated” to the intricacies of the future, is thoroughly analyzed, rethought, and based on it, a description of how the planet will live in 18 years is given.

It would seem that the role of intelligence itself should not consist of long-term assessments of what will happen and how the heart will calm down, but in the United States even from the activities of intelligence agencies they make a show. Apparently, the primacy of making money in this state is comprehensive and unquestionable. The show is born literally from scratch and attracts millions of people. The directors of these shows are doing everything to create their own trends, allowing them to solve problems to a certain circle of people. And we, it must be admitted, quite often find ourselves in the distributed networks. And not only we ...

Let us consider some points of the forecast from the DNI, which, like all the scenarios of overseas agencies, one way or another connected with endless ratings, scales, gradations, forecasts and predictions, promises a lot of interesting and surely terrible things. Someone, naturally, is expecting manna from heaven (if the forecast was made by experts from the USA, try to guess who, according to the forecast, this manna will be sent down), and someone is literally waited for hell. In principle, it is difficult to call the work done by DNI because it is more like some kind of neuro-linguistic programming, when using certain words and actions, people try to tell them how to live.

So, just the other day in the USA, another predictive document was born, which is called “Global Trends to 2030 of the Year: Alternative Worlds”. The speaker was a man like Christopher Kocge, who is the head of the US National Intelligence Council.

Mr. Kojem’s report, it must be admitted, was thorough. Already 140 pages of narrow text. Still would! As many 16 services worked in his preparation! Therefore, it literally covered all aspects of the existence of human civilization up to 2030.
One of the main points of the report was the pacification of the ordinary American citizen, and at the same time all of the US government report customers. The comfort was that with all the "dirty insinuations" on the part of the ill-wishers of the most democratic country in the world, the United States would retain world leadership through 18 years. At the same time, such a “forecast” somehow badly fits together with the fact that by the year 2030 China will become the leading economy of the world, Kouge himself said. It turns out that the DNI say something like this: the Chinese will overtake us, but we will still be leaders on the planet ... Such tirades remind the famous Soviet anecdote about how Brezhnev and Reagan competed in running against each other. The American president won the race at the Soviet secretary general, but in the USSR the newspapers wrote that Leonid Ilyich came second to the finish line, and Reagan was the last ... The impression that Christophe Kodge and the company made predictions about American leadership after reading this particular anecdote.

In general, “their own” Kojem reassured, which means that one of the key goals of the report itself was already achieved ... Then the speaker transferred to other geopolitical sites, one of which was, of course, Russia. What could be without her in the American reports.

It turned out that Mr. Kojem, on the basis of some surprising statistical methods, managed to calculate that the population of the Russian Federation by 2030 from the current 143 million people was reduced to 127 million 910 thousand people. The striking accuracy ... But how this forecast fits in with data not only from Russia, but also from many European, Asian, and American, by the way, statistical agencies that have recently registered an increase in the Russian population, is not entirely clear. I would like to look at the formulas according to which Russia will lose more than 18 millions of citizens in 15 years. But the speaker from DNI did not bother either himself or us with “superfluous data”.

In relation to Russia, Mr. Kochem and his colleagues “predicted” dependence on energy exports in 2030. One of the theses of the report contains information that the main inflow of funds into the Russian treasury over the coming years will be largely associated with the sale of oil and gas abroad.

Well, is this a forecast? Yes, in our country such a prediction can be made by any student. Everyone and without Mr. Kojem understand that with the diversification of the Russian economy, things are, to put it mildly, not the best way. What is surprising is that the DNI forecasters for Russia see this as a great disaster, but the same dependence on oil sales by some countries of the Persian Gulf is clearly not associated with an economic catastrophe both for these countries and for their residents. Why is this? ..

The speaker is also worried about the growing number of Russians professing Islam. But the increase in the number of radical Islamists, for example, in the UK, the United States itself or the Scandinavian countries, does not cause strange fears. Apparently, the Russian Muslims, in the opinion of the gentlemen who prepared the report, are “fiercer and more terrible” than the Islamists who settled in the West ... Much fiercer and more terrible ...
At the end of the section on the future of Russia, the speaker declares that our country and you have three ways of further development: either we will embark on the true path and fully comply with US standards, or turn into a rogue state, or remain unreliable - the “bad guys” ( Well, as it is now).

In general, such a forecast can be called quite standard and even optimistic, because if you compare it with the forecast of one well-known American politician of the past years, Zbigniew Brzezinski, then in the last year’s forecast Russia will inevitably collapse in the current (2012) ...

But in predicting the collapse of entire states, DNI decided to intercept the baton from the forecaster Brzezinski. Only this time the collapse of Turkey, not Russia, was predicted. The speaker stated that irreversible processes could start in Turkey in the near future due to the Kurds' intention to organize their own independent state. The desire for independence of the Kurdish people, according to the DNI, for Turkey will be exacerbated by a steady decline in the birth rate, problems with fresh water, as well as the presence of pro-Islamic forces in power. Turkey’s “split” will lead to a new geopolitical storm in the Middle East, according to DNI specialists.

If we take into account that the splits of large states in the modern world are not complete without US participation, it turns out that Mr. Khogem’s report is more like a guide to action for the American authorities. It turns out that the West can well be called the “bloody dictator” after Gaddafi, Assad and Ahmadinejad Erdogan (or any other mate). And if so, then the prospect of overthrowing the Syrian leader with Turkey’s hands, and then putting the Turkish authorities on the black list, is quite realistic, since they “knew too much”. And after such a disintegration of Turkey - an ideal option for the organizers and sponsors of mass chaos on the planet.

In general, to live, as one well-known author said, we will be bad, but not for long. And at the end of all, except for the United States waiting for something out of the ordinary. In the United States, according to the theses of the report, there will be a “shale revolution” and the country will get rid of external energy supplies by the year of 2030. Americans will be the happiest people on the planet ...

The storyteller Hans Christian Andersen nervously smokes on the sidelines ...
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  1. domokl
    domokl 14 December 2012 09: 49
    Well, everything is clear with Russia .. The second millennium has been buried for us .. But with Turkey ... A direct hint to the intractable Turks, we will help to fall apart ... It’s ugly as for Amers ... They threaten an ally ...
    1. lewerlin53rus
      lewerlin53rus 14 December 2012 10: 05
      Quote: domokl
      They threaten an ally ...

      Yes, they do not have allies as such. There are vassals. There are no allies. Well, except maybe Small Britain. Yes, and they are cunning. They will not really harness anything.
      1. keylogger
        keylogger 14 December 2012 13: 56
        It can be seen that the SGA does not want to believe in its imminent collapse that they are ready to threaten the crabs with nuclear weapons if they urgently do not believe them ..

        I will enjoy watching the imminent collapse of the United States of America.

        I wonder what kind of staff they will play the role of Latvia for example?
        1. crazyrom
          crazyrom 15 December 2012 00: 20
          Let them better scout and predict at home, already sickened. They themselves print money uncontrollably, build a pyramid, and they predict bad things to us, well, their ass.
    2. подводник
      подводник 14 December 2012 10: 18
      Right leverlin53rus!!
      They did not have allies and never will ....
      They have a concept " ally"is a tool to achieve your goal ...
      It's good that we understood this, and in return we call them "partners" (also nothing)
      1. Paratov
        Paratov 14 December 2012 11: 57
        Quote: submariner
        For them, the concept of "ally" is a tool to achieve their goal.

        For them, the concept of "ally" is identical with the concept of "prostitute".
        The only difference is that the prostitute herself pays for the pleasure.
        1. The Shrew
          The Shrew 15 December 2012 00: 49
          Quote: Paratov
          For them, the concept of "ally" is identical with the concept of "prostitute".
          The only difference is that the prostitute herself pays for the pleasure

          This is called a concubine.
          Merkel wrote and introduced ... somehow non-sexually ... even impotently ...
      2. yustas
        yustas 15 December 2012 18: 58
        Quote: submariner
        It's good that we understood this, and in return we call them "partners" (also nothing)

        How is it anyway ??? with a partner of the opposite sex we can vigorously and what to do ... the USA has been asking for a long time ...
        Threat sealed directly in the subject, I wanted to fix it, but left as it turned out ...
    3. Karlsonn
      Karlsonn 14 December 2012 16: 27
      ... Another forecast was an organization such as the National Intelligence Council of the United States of America (DNI) ...
      EPT, the economic crisis in the yard, push all DNI to hell with the dog, I myself - ONE, at times it’s better to write and much for less money bully .
      1. Denzel13
        Denzel13 14 December 2012 17: 16
        Quote: Karlsonn
        I myself - ONE, at times it’s better to write and much for less money.

        Then the turn has already formed from those who want to write. laughing
        1. Karlsonn
          Karlsonn 14 December 2012 17: 54

          as I wrote in the next thread:
          - I am a veteran of the Battle of Kulikovo, there is help, I have a turn on the drum bully .
    4. Yarbay
      Yarbay 14 December 2012 18: 59
      Quote: domokl
      Well, everything is clear with Russia .. We’ve been burying the second millennium already .. But with Turkey ... A direct hint to the intractable Turks, we will help to fall apart ... It’s ugly as for Amers ... They threaten an ally.

      Ally knows everything perfectly !!
      I already wrote here that even before the war in Iraq, I watched a program on the Turkish channel where one of the guests was a retired general, who used to be one of the leaders of the strategic research department at the general staff!
      So he said there, why the US started the war in Iraq and what will happen next !! What is the main goal of creating a Kurdish state, as destabilizing for its neighbors and distracting Arab countries from Israel !! Almost everything he told and predicted, everything It came true !! He then said that the first bell would be the fall of Syria and the creation of the Kurdish state in Iraq, after that they would try to ruin Turkey and there would be a big war!
      1. buruntuz
        buruntuz 17 December 2012 19: 17
        But is it possible for more than 20 million Kurdish people to get their own state? Why can the Turks on the lands of the Greeks, Kurds, Armenians, Assyrians, Georgians, Arabs have their own state, but not the Kurds?
    5. buruntuz
      buruntuz 17 December 2012 19: 14
      and in what Turkey is intractable? IMHO ALL the proposals (read-orders) from the United States are carried out by the Turks at attention ... ABM? You are welcome ! Treat the thugs Maskhadov and Basayev? You are welcome. Help the Chechen underground with money? You are welcome ! To muddy the waters in the "southern underbelly" of Russia and in Tatarstan? Always ready !
  2. Alexander Romanov
    Alexander Romanov 14 December 2012 09: 53
    I’ll have to change my nickname with Alexander Romanov, change the Prophet to nickname, I’ll do my own show on the site. Predict the future and all that. I’ll tell everyone what awaits him, tell them wink
    Well, not for free, of course, the tariff as agreed winked
    1. volcano
      volcano 14 December 2012 10: 08
      Quote: Alexander Romanov
      Well, not for free, of course, the tariff as agreed

      Alexander and payment in what?
      Do you take Malaysian shells? wink
    2. Denzel13
      Denzel13 14 December 2012 10: 37
      Sasha start sculpting your forecast. Hihi

      They found a good job - funding for this "work" was probably not childish.

      PS I understand that in the above forecast there is not a word about the desire of the states to fall apart. laughing As well as about the desire to legitimize marijuana (probably based on the latter, this opus was born, stoned scouts will still not write that).
      1. Alexander Romanov
        Alexander Romanov 14 December 2012 10: 40
        Hi all, drinks
        Quote: volkan
        Do you take Malaysian shells?

        If you put 5000 bill into a shell, then with joy. You will know where to lay straws wink
        Quote: Denzel13
        Sasha start sculpting your forecast

        Sasha, I don’t work on credit laughing
        1. Denzel13
          Denzel13 14 December 2012 10: 47
          So the fund must be created target.
          1. Alexander Romanov
            Alexander Romanov 14 December 2012 11: 14
            Quote: Denzel13
            So the fund must be created target

            Excellent Sasha, I expect from you a down payment, it is possible in dollars wink
            1. Denzel13
              Denzel13 14 December 2012 12: 00
              Sasha why currency, gold is necessary, or in extreme cases, oil laughing
            2. Paratov
              Paratov 14 December 2012 12: 01
              Without any Nostradamus, Wang and shells I can, purely speculative, I can predict that the USA after 2025, in the form in which we knew them, will not!
              Simply put, America is waiting for the fate of the Soviet Union.
              What goes around comes around!
              1. The Shrew
                The Shrew 15 December 2012 00: 52
                Quote: Paratov
                Simply put, America is waiting for the fate of the Soviet Union.

                Well, they already have enough senility, it remains to find Mr. Gorbi. drinks
        2. volcano
          volcano 15 December 2012 00: 34
          If you put a 5000 bill into a shell

          Severe tariff however ..... There is no drain, however ....
          Okay, I will live in ignorance laughing
    3. Ascetic
      Ascetic 14 December 2012 13: 32
      Quote: Alexander Romanov
      , change the Prophet to nickname, I’ll do my own show on the site

      Better on Elder Paisius. He has many prophecies in Greece, Turkey, Russia and China.
      My webpage
      Prophecies of Elder Joseph of Vatopedi
      Holy Mount Athos. 26.10.2001/XNUMX/XNUMX

      My webpage
      Or here are some more interesting notes

      By the way, here on the site there was already one such Prophet Alyosha (if anyone remembers). So Sasha with nicknames be careful, especially with the prophecies winked
      1. wall
        wall 14 December 2012 14: 52
        Plus 5. For Paisia. Read it.
      2. подводник
        подводник 15 December 2012 08: 05
        As always, thanks for the interesting information !!!
  3. Vladimirets
    Vladimirets 14 December 2012 10: 00
    How are they waiting for our death. Well, nothing, we are waiting for them too)))
    1. подводник
      подводник 14 December 2012 10: 26
      They await our death every single day .... laughing laughing laughing laughing laughing laughing
      But somehow the problem with the timing comes out .... everything is being transferred and transferred ...
      And then Putin decided to recreate the USSR-YOUR CRANTS !!!
      WHAT TO DO, WHAT TO DO ???? An urgent need to compose some report and cover our future in manure (quite amerovsky)
      Well, they’re ass-striped in the future in chocolate (guys, have you ever seen an Amer film about amers without a happy end, no, and you’ll never see .... because by the rules SHOW MAST GOU OH (the show should go on .. .)
      1. Black Colonel
        Black Colonel 14 December 2012 11: 12
        Recently I watched the film "The Wicker Man". There, the amerovsky snoop is burned alive in a huge wicker structure. Alive! It's somehow not like amers. So the beginnings of realism are ripening in them. am
  4. homeland
    homeland 14 December 2012 10: 03
    As it really was ... The National Intelligence Council walked to the committee that paid all the Russian lovers to swamp, went to places, clarified how things were, how the special services of the Russian Federation worked in relation to them, and in the end this one was born a piece of paper about some vague prospects for Russia.

    Put all these swamps on a train and send them to hell, I'm even ready to throw off a ticket !!! And in America, let them waste paper
  5. Bykov.
    Bykov. 14 December 2012 10: 06
    (... the inevitable collapse of Turkey and the woes in Russia ...)
    At the expense of Turkey, it’s absolutely true, and then, as always, they lied.
    1. Denzel13
      Denzel13 14 December 2012 10: 43
      Judging by the number of Russian citizens there, it is high time to make the Mediterranean coast of Turkey a subject of the Russian Federation. laughing
      1. подводник
        подводник 14 December 2012 10: 48
        Respected Denzel13and the territory of Cyprus, Northern Egypt, Syria, Israel why didn’t you mention ???
        It will turn out a new subject of the Russian Federation — the Mediterranean Territory ... And Governor Assad there ... (for some Haiti, 53 states can enter the USA ... why we can’t ... laughing )
        1. Denzel13
          Denzel13 14 December 2012 11: 58
          This is yes, and even the sun does not need to be used by tourists, everything has already been captured. It remains only to recognize the legitimacy
          1. подводник
            подводник 14 December 2012 12: 01
            But the precedent already exists - Abkhazia and South Ossetia ....
            1. Denzel13
              Denzel13 14 December 2012 15: 54
              In Turkey it’s even easier - you do not need to issue passports.
  6. volcano
    volcano 14 December 2012 10: 07
    either we will embark on the true path and will fully comply with US standards, or we will turn into a rogue country, or we will remain unreliable - “bad guys” (well, as now)
    With this choice .... I am definitely for the "bad guys" wink .
    1. подводник
      подводник 14 December 2012 10: 28
      Personally, I like being a "bad guy" for amers ...
      1. Denzel13
        Denzel13 14 December 2012 10: 49
        Vladimir You are not at all alone in your desire good
        1. подводник
          подводник 14 December 2012 10: 55
          Ah Alexander !!!
          I am sure that the vast majority of this resource will be with us!
          So drinks for this !!! .... current in the evening ...
  7. vvvvv
    vvvvv 14 December 2012 10: 09
    I had no doubt that the United States was planning to omit the stupid Turks in their ambitions ... It’s no accident that the official Kurdish army is already being created ... Silly puppet Turks ... Syria will leave them sideways ... Maybe the contradictions between the Russian Federation and the USA are very skillful game for dividing the world ?! In general, without specifying China here, this would be more realistic for the United States. They rose due to the bipolar world, forcing paranoia and blockiness. Maybe they understood the benefits and agreed ?! Of course, in reality I don’t think so, but as a recommendation, this is more reasonable than real threats of confrontation.
    Oh, if that were the case, then all sorts of ex-Soviet shifters are preparing their asses ... But it will be all the same ... Anyway.
    1. подводник
      подводник 14 December 2012 10: 33
      At an extreme meeting with Erdogan, Putin put forward such a series of proposals from Turkey that Erdogan was a little crazy .... Amer is now dissatisfied with Erdogan, that's where the legs grow ... like, if you don’t think better of Ottoman, you don’t think again of our universal democratic values ​​- we (amers) will show you the Armenian mother ... and down the list: blah, blah, blah ...
      1. buruntuz
        buruntuz 17 December 2012 19: 23
        Yes, Erdogan wanted to spit on Armenians and Greeks ... he is not afraid of this - his heart is afraid of fraternal Azerbaijan (created by the Turkish occupation army in 1918 in Transcaucasia). For the Armenians of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic on the present lands will not stop and go further, recapturing all their lands to the right bank of the Kura. And there you look and the Talyshs with Lezghins remember their NOT Turkic History and their past ... you look and the FSB will think about how this coast of Samura remained with the Azeris along with two rather small villages (with lands and fields). So, from today's Azerbaijan you look only and there will be a golden palace of Aliyev and a couple of towers in the gray Caspian.
    ADEQUATE 14 December 2012 10: 09
    So they are paid money for forecasts, and the better the forecast for the USA, the more they pay !!!
    1. подводник
      подводник 14 December 2012 10: 34
      Respect to you and respect ...
      1. ADEQUATE
        ADEQUATE 14 December 2012 10: 36
        Thank you the same
  9. auditor
    auditor 14 December 2012 10: 11
    Strange prognosis - not a word about zombies wink But seriously, usually such American forecasters, on the contrary, scare their townsfolk to justify the cost of security and the adoption of anti-democratic laws. Apparently, the Americans are already too frightened and their pharmacists cannot cope with the production of antidepressants smile
  10. askort154
    askort154 14 December 2012 10: 13
    He modestly kept silent that the US president in 2030 would wear clothes with
    brand "Made in Cina".
    1. Black Colonel
      Black Colonel 14 December 2012 11: 16
      And who said that he is not wearing now?
  11. IlyaKuv
    IlyaKuv 14 December 2012 10: 25
    The storyteller Hans Christian Andersen nervously smokes on the sidelines ...
    You can’t say better, storytellers in this West live, outplayed in Call of Duty, banderlogs ...
  12. MilaPhone
    MilaPhone 14 December 2012 10: 31
    There will be no Turkey and no ills.
    And about China I wonder what forecast?
    1. aleks.baa2012
      aleks.baa2012 14 December 2012 17: 27
      the us is afraid of china, they already made a forecast with bird flu, almost the whole world was not put at risk. am
    2. buruntuz
      buruntuz 17 December 2012 19: 24
      I completely agree !
  13. omsbon
    omsbon 14 December 2012 10: 38
    Watch the cartoon "Last year's snow was falling."
  14. Magadan
    Magadan 14 December 2012 10: 46
    Of course, everything in the article is correct. But, population decline is very likely if Juvenalka is introduced. It will be just scary to give birth, because bureaucrats may think to pick up the child and you will not do anything! It will be as "child psychologists say"
    At the expense of Muslim extremists, it is indeed more dangerous in this regard than in the West. In the West, unwanted persons are quietly shot. And not just extremists. There, they will not be allowed to walk around especially zealous. Every person there is under control.
    Again, the top of the extremists itself works west and this is evident in Syria and Libya. The very top will hand over especially zealous members who are not in the know. But to us they will send these extremists in batches, be sure.
  15. viruskvartirus
    viruskvartirus 14 December 2012 11: 04
    "From 143 million people will be reduced to 127 million 910 thousand." nifiga yourself forecasts based on what ?. This type of paper will endure everything, and the "progressive" pipel eats ...
    1. SlavaP
      SlavaP 15 December 2012 02: 00
      Well, actually, maybe - depending on the initial conditions ... probably it was meant that millions of commercials of 15 will fulfill the international duty in FGP (Am) or FGP (Heb) ... soldier
  16. USNik
    USNik 14 December 2012 11: 11
    The National Intelligence Council is an analytical division of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence of the United States.

    Something I can’t enter into this formulation. Does the director of the US intelligence service have his own analytical department?
    In general, the authors themselves admit that this "report" is only a reason for a talking shop
    The authors of the study emphasize that they do not seek to “predict the future,” but see their main task in “stimulating discussions” in the American leadership on global trends in world development until 2030.
  17. Grenz
    Grenz 14 December 2012 11: 22
    The Turks argue: Will the United States throw them or not? Erdogan's conclusion is sure to be thrown. They have already set them up with Syria. They showed that the Turks can easily be accused of being "under-democratic." They will throw a stick to the Kurds and the Khan to the Turks. That is, the leash for them is strict and short.
    But if, at Putin’s request, the Turks stop climbing into the Caucasus, Russia's help will pull Turkey out of any trap again.
    And at the expense of Russia.
    We have been living in a permanent apocalypse for so long that if it does come we will not notice it.
    The only thing is that officials and rascal politicians will flee abroad and the air will become cleaner.
  18. david210512
    david210512 14 December 2012 11: 46
    Well Americans as always on top. thank you laugh lol
  19. Egoza
    Egoza 14 December 2012 11: 55
    All sorts of tales needed! Especially when you need to knock yourself out financing and justify your existence
  20. bubla5
    bubla5 14 December 2012 12: 11
    Why is the forecast of a decrease in the number of Russians so inconvenient for our rulers? In my opinion, it’s all true, before everywhere in the newspapers they printed how much was born and how much died, and now this topic is taboo
    1. Volodin
      14 December 2012 13: 42
      Don't quite agree with you. Now it is just the opposite: the data is just dark, but only the data of some often do not coincide with the data of others. Although all sources (except DNI) recognize that in Russia there is a tendency to increase the birth rate. I would like to make the men in 50-55 not die - in general it would be great ...
      1. Denzel13
        Denzel13 14 December 2012 16: 10
        Aleksey is the surest way to increase the life expectancy of men - upon reaching 65 years of age, give out some average significant financial bonus (pension is not considered wassat) The tendency of a person to freebie will have a crazy placebo effect. laughing
        1. SlavaP
          SlavaP 15 December 2012 01: 47
          Better let them give out to a young wife (and preferably an orphan so that the mother-in-law does not blow in her ears) - the effect will be more abrupt! wink
          1. Denzel13
            Denzel13 15 December 2012 14: 53
            Glory so who is against laughing , however, questions may arise with the current wife
  21. DuraLexSedLex.
    DuraLexSedLex. 14 December 2012 12: 32
    The collapse of Turkey - it seems to destabilize the region Americans are ready to bring their sheep for slaughter.
    1. buruntuz
      buruntuz 17 December 2012 19: 25
      why is the collapse of Turkey - destabilization?
  22. Kaa
    Kaa 14 December 2012 13: 35
    In the United States, according to the theses of the report, a “shale revolution” will occur and by 2030 the country will forever get rid of external energy supplies. ..
    Storyteller Hans Christian Andersen nervously smokes aside

    its production is a very costly undertaking, and without tax preferences, “shale” companies can fly into the well.
    They do not fatten even now. According to the International Energy Agency, an autonomous international body within the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the average cost of shale gas in the United States in March 2010 was about $ 180 per 1000 cubic meters m (from $ 80 to $ 280, and in individual deposits and more than $ 320) Although companies have tax breaks, however, this does not save them from losses. There are reasonable suspicions that the cost of extracting shale gas for the sake of an advertising campaign is cheekily underestimated.
    For example, Chesapeake Energy, the largest independent American gas producer specializing in shale gas, ended last year with huge losses - $ 5,8 billion for a turnover of $ 7,7 billion. At the same time, 2008 was still relatively successful: for a turnover of $ 11,63 billion. net profit was only $ 0,723 billion.
    But what about the cost price of Gazprom, the main competitor of all gas producers on the planet Earth (about 23-25% of world gas trade)? According to the financial report of Gazprom for the first quarter of 2007, the cost of export gas amounted to $ 14,34 per 1000 cubic meters. m. In the crisis year of 2009, the cost grew to $ 19,3. Even taking into account the huge transport leverage - from Yamburg to Berlin, about 5 thousand km - production and transportation costs of 1 thousand cubic meters. m do not exceed $ 90.Not from a good life, Americans are increasing the production of shale gas. Since the 90s of the last century, the USA has been the largest importer of natural gas (more than 12% in world trade). The northern vassal of Canada and the southern slave of Mexico cannot cope with increasing their gas exports to the “metropolis”. Due to the depletion of fields with traditional gas production (according to pessimistic forecasts, the reserves of traditional gas in the United States will last only 11 years), the Yankees are gradually replacing them with shale gas development.
    Carrying liquefied natural gas (LNG) by tankers in specially equipped freezing systems is also an unbearably expensive exercise. It is necessary to build huge “gas carriers” with a deadweight of more than 200 thousand m3, because only such a floating tub costing $ 250-300 million makes transportation over a distance of more than 5,5 thousand km relatively profitable. And when you take into account capital costs for the construction of expensive infrastructure the cost of 1000 cubic meters. m of methane regasified from LNG increases to $ 180.
    Alas, for now, natural gas production by traditional methods and pipeline transportation are beyond competition in all respects. And this is “so far” for the entire foreseeable future. Http://
    1. knn54
      knn54 14 December 2012 15: 04
      Acid is used in the production of shale gas, and this is an environmental disaster.
  23. deman73
    deman73 14 December 2012 13: 38
    whatever the tan laughing
  24. Pilot200809
    Pilot200809 14 December 2012 14: 41
    Pi ..... do not toss the bags. Mattresses sleep and see RUSSIA on their knees. Oh well . I think in the near future it will be something like this ....
  25. knn54
    knn54 14 December 2012 15: 07
    Do not forget to grab. in that case, the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles ...
    1. Denzel13
      Denzel13 14 December 2012 15: 58
      Well, in Istanbul (that is, Constantinople, as it’s more correct) there are no less Russians, and in Russian only a very lazy Turk or Kurd does not speak.
  26. UzRus
    UzRus 14 December 2012 16: 40
    Forecasters are fig ...
  27. Mr.Fox
    Mr.Fox 14 December 2012 17: 18
    Such reports are published solely to feed domestic American hamsters who need periodicals to remind them that they live in the best country in the world.
  28. Leisure
    Leisure 14 December 2012 17: 54
    Sorry for the paper. So much has been written for the sake of this "monkey labor".
    Office for the procurement of horns and hooves.
  29. sapulid
    sapulid 14 December 2012 17: 57
    So, let's begin.

    Now, we have a population growth in Russia. Moreover, each Slavic family has a maximum of 2 children, on average. The question is raised about the Islamization of growth. I think they will not argue with this, you just have to look at the passers-by in your city. Then, let's calculate the ratio of Russians in the total population. I think 60 percent. What do we have? These 60%, at best, will support the population with 2 children. But, there is a huge demographic pit of the 90s. This means that a decline in the Russian population is inevitable in the current trend of one family, with a maximum of 2 children.

    On the leading role of China. With a rapidly aging population, problems with a huge stratification of the population and a growing standard of living of the latter, China will not be able to remain a quiet haven with low wages of workers, making it a global manufacturing factory. Add a huge technological lag in production, environmental problems, lack of fresh water, growing interethnic conflicts, etc. Having a "good friend" in the person of the United States, there is no doubt that the bases around China are not growing in vain. Also, it can be assumed that each of the contradictions existing there will be exaggerated with the help of opposition financed from outside.

    About Turkey Taking on the role of reconstruction in the region of the Ottoman Empire, the Turks went against their sovereign. You think in vain the sovereign Kurdistan in Iraq was actually created. Assad went the same way. Him, it’s better to lose less. Guess three times, what will the forcibly Kurdish Kurds in Turkey do? And who will help them?

    Forecasts, business is not gracious. Only God knows our fate, but it is not worth it to take such forecasts lightly.

    You need to be prepared for everything from the United States. Forewarned is forearmed.
    1. knn54
      knn54 14 December 2012 18: 48
      The United States is at the mercy of global chaos. They do not need strong powers, be they allied three times. If necessary, they and Israel will betray that Turkey is there.
      1. xan
        xan 15 December 2012 01: 16
        or rather, American Jews will surrender Israeli Jews
  30. Yankuz
    Yankuz 14 December 2012 18: 03
    Just give out wishful thinking. As they would like it to be.
  31. uizik
    uizik 14 December 2012 18: 42
    Such comments are nice to read! With humor, great! And the reports of amers are worthless. Another brainwashing.
  32. homosum20
    homosum20 14 December 2012 19: 01
    When a dog has nothing to do, she ... and she licks.
    And everyone needs money.
  33. Black
    Black 14 December 2012 19: 08
    So tempting to write a statement to the US Embassy .... "I ask you to consider me Bad and further !!!!"
  34. MrBoris555
    MrBoris555 14 December 2012 20: 48
    how he counted, how he counted, elementary, summarize the changes in the population of Russia over 20 years, divide by 20, determine the most pessimistic option and hop, in Russia -800 000 per year of the population, for example, you can not think about the trend and the rest)
  35. bart74
    bart74 14 December 2012 21: 07
    I think you can safely go to bed, well, or drink coffee with something like that. All these predictions somehow remind of a filkin letter. or how is his speaker there? Yes, okay with him, a mattress pad!
  36. xan
    xan 15 December 2012 01: 20
    Americans predict a serious breakthrough from Brazil and South Africa, but they don’t explain how their potential is higher than Russian, but I would like to know
    1. knn54
      knn54 15 December 2012 13: 54
      More than 80% of American Nobel laureates have Russian roots.
  37. tekinoral
    tekinoral 15 December 2012 03: 50
    A U.S. intelligence report also acknowledges controversy in US-Chinese relations. In particular, the risk of new wars exists around the disputed islands in the Asia-Pacific region (APR). Despite the risks of armed conflict in the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, South Asia and North Africa, the role of countries such as Brazil, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, South Africa and Turkey will increase in the global economy. And the aging of the population in Russia, the EU, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, hi to the fact that these countries will experience a "slow comparative decline" in the next two decades, the document says.
    1. подводник
      подводник 15 December 2012 08: 09
      If only if mushrooms would grow in Karaganda ...
  38. dr.barhan
    dr.barhan 15 December 2012 23: 07
    Dear colleagues! In fact, a 140-page report was written, and its acting chief of the chiefs of all intelligence services of the Confederation of America simply made a thesis, and said what he considered necessary ... What is written there in reality - we cannot read ... And the report really analyzed, calculated, predicted ... But there is one "but": American experts wrote a report in pieces, each of which specializes in. It turns out grandma's patchwork quilt. And the methods are approximately the same as those used by the grandmothers on the bench - judging by the correspondence of diplomats and intelligence officers posted in Wikileaks - American intelligence officers did not try to extract information from the yellow press ... Plus, this nation does not understand that the world order maybe a little bit different than in their USA ... They do not understand that in Ukraine, apart from Chernobyl, there are 45 million people living, giving birth to children, working, trying to snatch something in the political arena, etc., that in Russia not only drink vodka in the forest with bears and play the balalaika, which in Belarus they not only plant potatoes and But Father produces Minsk refrigerators ... They do not understand that something can be different than in their country. .. That's all! Therefore, you need to perceive this report as another way for American intelligence to show their work and knock out more money for Coca-Cola with Big Mac for their employees ...
  39. Oleg Rosskiyy
    Oleg Rosskiyy 16 December 2012 00: 12
    A very interesting forecast, but it looks like a charter for living and rules of conduct for the entire population of the earth, of course, except for the American one, and most importantly, the shale revolution is expected in the United States, it would be necessary to accelerate it.
  40. faser
    faser 16 December 2012 11: 41
    The Anglo-Saxons have one philosophy. "We do not have permanent allies and enemies, we have permanent interests"
  41. gardener
    gardener 17 December 2012 00: 38
    The author’s humor, alas, is miserable in form, and capillary in content. For the need of aerial haters, from a kindergarten prepared to gloat even over the death of sailors on the Scorpion submarine (see material here). Some people can be proud of: there was no mention of any NLP, but after all, how they knew how to poison and stuff their brains.

    On the whole, the criticism contained in the publication is superficial, and clearly does not reach the seriousness of the problems experienced by our country in depth. And with regard to demography (sapulid is true, it is not without reason that our attention is drawn to “ISLAMIZATION OF GROWTH”), and with regard to the diversification of the Russian economy. In addition, centrifugal phenomena that are growing everywhere in the world are by no means in Turkey alone. To extinguish a smoldering tinder in the corners - for how long we will be enough, who knows.

    The author writes: “... The speaker is also concerned about the growing number of Russians professing Islam. But the increase in the number of radical Islamists, for example, in the UK, the United States itself or the Scandinavian countries ... "

    Yes, the old Christian-cultural Europe is bending before our eyes under the pressure of Islamization, the idea of ​​multiculturalism does not work. But this does not mean that their Europeans, tolerance, "political correctness" are so limitless to suppress the instinct of self-preservation.

    Yes, and the “shale revolution” is still “sneezing”, not going. But the problem of energy dependence is so acute that a scientific and technological breakthrough is absolutely inevitable here. Wait a bit ...

    In my opinion, the hopes of some commentators “... with pleasure ... to watch the inevitable collapse of the United States of America” are unrealistic. And stupid.

    It makes more sense, it seems to me, to use the material read here precisely in order to “STIMULATE DISCUSSIONS” regarding OUR WITH YOU, dear servants, and our children - the future.

    Somewhere here recently I read:
    “... men do not live up to 50, mortality exceeds birth rates a couple of times, young people strive to become officials, they proudly drink the rubbish supplied with ..., the country has neither morality, nor a culture of behavior ... Every day, 73 million are withdrawn from the country. dollars, 25% of the population live in poverty, 1,5 million homeless children, 4 million - adults ... An indicator of the significance of society is the size of an SUV and loot, no matter how it is received ... ”Figures, if desired, are not difficult to verify , specify. But the essence is just that

    Believe it or not, the article discussed here is the business of every reader. Personally, the author’s strained jokes and the lightness of his tone, snappy, downward, his manner of presenting to him information quite worthy of thoughtful reflection, do not convince me.

    In my opinion, the threat to our country does not come primarily from the United States, NATO, and other likely opponents. But on the other hand. Namely:
    - from the general corruption of morals, here, here;
    - from an insignificant state of morality, also here, here;
    - from the lack of a generally accepted system of ideas between us, citizens, about what is good and what is evil.

    Well, and how to fix all this?
    If so much is said everywhere, for example, about the poor quality of the elections in our country, etc., then you yourself understand what kind of morality is, what kind of morality ...

    Will the state of mind “... internal American hamsters ...” help us, as one of the “commentators” takes care of?
    Or even the "imminent collapse of the United States of America"?
    1. Misantrop
      Misantrop 17 December 2012 00: 55
      Gardener, and all these threats themselves grew out of nowhere? Or did someone diligently implement them according to their script for decades? After all, even weeds and pests from nothing appear. Or is this also news? And who benefits from the comprehensive weakening of the opposing center of power on the planet? And instilling whose standards of behavior and lifestyle caused such a decline in morals? The introduction of whose training system caused a massive decline in literacy? Copying whose television programs and shows abruptly routine the contents of television programs of central television channels? I apologize in advance if such complex issues prove overwhelming ... wink
      1. gardener
        gardener 17 December 2012 03: 13
        You are right, dear Misanthrope, I really can’t answer the questions put forward by you, well, sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooobahoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooahooooooooooooooooo I’m going to need something simpler, and so on right away ...

        You know, I have never once in my entire service had to come into contact with those who, according to your information, "... benefit from the comprehensive weakening of the opposing center of power on the planet." Although, I don’t live in a vacuum and therefore I guess who, apparently, you are a misanthrope from your heart, you mean - they were only able to watch them in a suspicious pipe, sorry - in a stereo pipe, on the island of Lawrence. But then I was too young and in our midst so enlightened (and initiated, I guess, into “otherworldly” information), as you, dear misanthrope, have not been found. Although the regiment had, as I recall now, as many as seven liberated (not counting other) political workers, again, excuse me, political officers, that is, I apologize, political workers.
        Yes, so: "... all these threats" - did they "grow by themselves out of nowhere?"
        I think you, dear misanthrope, are right. They did not grow themselves. And not at ease. They really "... were carefully implemented according to their scenario for decades ...", but not "someone", but, as I remember now, the Central Committee of the CPSU. And this script was called, as I remember now, the “Program of the CPSU”. (I have it somewhere in the attic, neatly on the shelf. Want to let me read it?)
        Here are just the number of decades of all this senile chantrap - nature has not given enough. Because nature cannot (so it, nature, is arranged!) Endure for a long time something that is not quite effective, not very viable.

        Infinitely long to face the whole more civilized world on nuclear horns - did not work. Well ... I suppose you yourself were a witness?
        The building, a kind of tower of Babel, which they tried to build in order to reach God, who, "as we all know," is not, that is, to communism ...
        Yes, so this building took and - crumbled! Because it was based on the idea of ​​violence against human nature, the desire to force, force a person to live according to speculative laws. Which I took and came up with in the country, (either near or far, I don’t know) illiterate, although in some ways (for example, ways to achieve absolute power in a vast country inhabited by a patient and obedient people) and a very talented paranoid. Unlearned seminar.

        They tried, for a long time, almost a hundred years, to cultivate in their political zone and around it a NEW person who would begin to live according to laws contrary to human nature. And in general to nature.
        Well, for example, remember, they told how one gypsy taught a horse he had stolen from someone - not to eat it. And it seems to have turned out quite well already, but that horse ... Well, remember, huh?
  42. gardener
    gardener 17 December 2012 03: 14
    So, out of this lying, far-fetched, not living and not corresponding to the nature of all living soil, the very threats that we have here, dear misanthrope, have sprung up.

    In principle, nothing good and useful for a person can lie on a lie. And our life in those years was a complete lie and deception. A kind of dope in one sixth ... With a sweep of victory in the rest of the world. I remembered this word (idiot) by association with the scene about the thieves company in one of the films. Because a huge number of our citizens passed through the camps, a huge labor army (I went with them to the school on the same train in June 53rd - it was horrible, I testify!). Well, what do you, dear misanthrope, want from a lesson? Any such morality, except thieves? It didn’t have to be introduced, it was already right there, in us and among us, in layers and clots. Then diffusion and - that is what we have yesterday and today. And maybe tomorrow. If we start to catch enemies not where ...

    And you, dear misanthrope, immediately began to look for the roots in the activities of the “world government”? No, you drop, dear misanthrope, all these conjectures, the most complicated constructions, like the Ptolemaic geocentric system of the world. You, like Ptolemy, have too many elements. Everything is easier, look around.

    We want to survive, it would be worth thinking about ourselves. About their children and grandchildren. About their upbringing and education, about the system of values ​​that we will instill in them.
  43. Svatdevostator
    Svatdevostator 21 December 2012 13: 51
    We are amused with our forecasts !!!!!!!!!!