Military Review

"North Korea's missile program is a bluff"

29
"North Korea's missile program is a bluff"Early Wednesday morning, the DPRK launched a ballistic missile that allegedly launched the Qanmenson-3 artificial satellite into orbit. This launch took place despite the opposition of the international community, which fears that Pyongyang is under the guise of "peaceful exploration of space" weapon intercontinental range. The launch of the rocket, in particular, was condemned by South Korea, the United States and Russia. A particularly angry protest was made by Japan, to whose territory the trajectory of the missile’s flight was closest. In Tokyo, they even demanded the convening of an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council to discuss the North Korean missile threat. However, some experts believe that this is a far-fetched problem. The fact that this launch is a bluff of pure water, in an interview with Rosbalt, was stated by a Korean studies professor at the School of Politics and International Studies of the University of Leeds Christophe Blat.

- Could you briefly explain what exactly flew into space today from North Korea?

- North Korea has announced that it plans to launch a rocket called "Ynha-3". This is a modification of the North Korean rocket Tephodon-2. Both of them are long-range missiles, built on the basis of Soviet technology.

There is nothing special about this launch, Pyongyang is trying to catch up on previous launches that ended in failure. The last time they launched the rocket was to be a big event, since it was timed to coincide with the centenary of the birth of the country's founder, Kim Il Sung, but in fact the unsuccessful launch was a great defeat for Pyongyang.

“Then why are the countries of the region so frightened?” Japan on the eve even declared that it was ready to shoot down a missile.

- The countries were frightened, because in the future such missiles could potentially be supplied with a nuclear warhead, and their goal could be not only the neighbors of North Korea, but even the United States. But North Korea’s goal is to challenge the UN, to show that they don’t care.

In terms of a possible strike from Japan, this would be a great provocation. The accuracy of the antimissile system leaves much to be desired, and if Japan had fired and missed, this would be a big embarrassment for her. I assumed that Tokyo would go for it.

- What do you think about the North Korean missile program as a whole? How serious is this problem?

- It seems to me that this is a bluff. I think they bought a number of Soviet missiles at one time and launch them with some modifications. I understand that this is difficult to prove, but I believe that North Korea does not have its own rocket industry, and that they themselves do not produce anything. You see, they have almost no tests. North Korea from time to time carries out these launches, the goals of which are of a political nature. In order to create a normal rocket program, you need to carry out a lot of tests. Therefore, I believe that they somehow bought the old Soviet missiles and launch them from time to time. So, "Unha-3" - a few Soviet rocket engines, connected together.

“This time the rocket carries the satellite.” How likely is it that at some point, instead of a satellite, there might be a nuclear warhead? Is North Korea preparing for nuclear testing?

- Indeed, this time it is not a nuclear warhead. So far, there is no evidence that North Korea is capable of making warhead missiles at all, but this, of course, remains a possible scenario. North Korea is trying to show the scope of its plans, but I very much doubt that they have warheads and opportunities to place them on missiles.

- How do you assess the current state of the North Korean nuclear program?

“The plutonium-based nuclear program has been shut down.” So far, there is no evidence that they are capable of producing weapons based on uranium. North Korea has several elementary nuclear devices, but so far there are no nuclear weapons.

- The launch of the rocket violated several UN Security Council resolutions that called for North Korea to stop any missile tests. What will be the reaction of the international community, in your opinion?

- The international community is likely to condemn, possibly followed by new economic sanctions. But, as I have already told you, I personally believe that the possibilities of North Korea are greatly exaggerated.

- What reaction, in your opinion, would become more adequate?

- I would advise to pay less attention to the nuclear program, and more economic and political cooperation with North Korea. Now everyone is engaged exclusively in Pyongyang’s nuclear program, and this is partly North Korea’s fault, which is trying to show that it is supposedly a powerful and influential country, although in reality this is not at all the case.

Pyongyang is trying to prove to its citizens and the whole world that North Korea is a great nuclear power, but in fact it is a country with very small GDP. North Korea’s GDP is less than defense — that is, not even everything — South Korea’s budget.

The technical capabilities of North Korea are zero. It is obvious that Pyongyang has very serious problems of an economic nature, but he is trying to divert attention from them with the help of ostentatious launches.

The world community must begin economic and political interaction with the Juche country in order to make long-term changes possible. You cannot use force against them, because if a war starts, the DPRK army will cut out the northern regions of South Korea. So you need to continue deterrence and begin a political and economic dialogue.
Originator:
http://www.rosbalt.ru
29 comments
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  1. NAV-STAR
    NAV-STAR 14 December 2012 15: 53
    +9
    Well, yes, a bluff whose fruits fly in geostationary orbit
    1. Ruslan67
      Ruslan67 14 December 2012 16: 00
      +10
      The main thing that would not start to fall stop
      1. nerd.su
        nerd.su 14 December 2012 19: 44
        +5
        Quote: Ruslan67
        The main thing that would not start to fall

        It seems to me that it’s more important for us that our people stop falling.
    2. Windbreak
      Windbreak 14 December 2012 17: 56
      +4
      DPRK is still very far from satellite launches on geostationary orbit
    3. Kaa
      Kaa 14 December 2012 17: 56
      +2
      Quote: NAV-STAR
      fruits fly in geostationary orbit

      Well, it’s not that it is geostationary, but it flies over the territory of the USA, and what and how much is incomprehensible:
      "" Kwanmenson-3 "(" Star of Hope ") is an apparatus for meteorological observations and sounding of the Earth in search of minerals. belay The satellite moves in an orbit synchronized with the Sun with semi-axes of 494 km and 599 km with an inclination of 97,4 °. In addition to him, two more new bodies were discovered in orbit, the origin of which is not entirely clear. what Most likely, this is a fairing of the missile’s warhead or a fragment of the third stage, but maybe additional satellites. request
      So, on the fourth attempt, the DPRK acquired its own orbiter. The Washington Post asks a rhetorical question: How could a poor country, isolated from the rest of the world, successfully make a spacewalk in such a short time? "http://slon.ru/fast/world/ofitsialno-koreyskiy-sputnik-na-orbite-863970.xh
      tml
    4. yurasumy
      yurasumy 14 December 2012 19: 34
      +2
      A strange expert. On the one hand, he says that a large number of tests are needed for any rocket and immediately offers a version that several engines were attached to an iron disc and flew into space. Nonsense. If you bought a rocket, name its type. Indeed, it is not difficult to find out with modern surveillance systems. Again, what a statement of the question. We bought a rocket, completed something and got ours. This is called a new rocket. Indeed, in essence, all missiles in the world are the same according to the principle of operation. And they differ in some nuances. These nuances are called the development of a new rocket.
      1. 755962
        755962 14 December 2012 20: 39
        +1
        Moscow, recognizing the DPRK's right to peaceful space exploration, also requested a review of the decision to launch a ballistic missile.

        The successful test of the rocket is confirmed by the US military.

        http://www.gazeta.ru/politics/2012/12/12_a_4887757.shtml
      2. 11Goor11
        11Goor11 16 December 2012 22: 38
        0
        This is just one of the British scientists.
        The University of Leeds or the University of Leeds is one of the largest universities in the UK, with about 7500 full-time employees and 32 full-time students.
  2. strannik595
    strannik595 14 December 2012 16: 12
    +4
    it's your life, Korean historian Christoph Blat, bluff, and Koreans are doing things
  3. Ivan Tarasov
    Ivan Tarasov 14 December 2012 16: 26
    +2
    No one can know about the DPRK missile program.
    All sorts of speculation, this is a bluff.
    For business, see - a satellite in orbit.
    1. alexng
      alexng 15 December 2012 11: 35
      +1
      This uncle, like all the Americans who are in politics, pass off their conjectures as reality. They live according to the principle "This cannot be, because this cannot be." The satellite then flies, and the amerikosos barks in pursuit.
  4. Kaa
    Kaa 14 December 2012 16: 38
    +6
    Antot Cristover Blath non-Russians. very uneducated. Before broadcasting to the "stupid Russians", I would have looked at least at the appearance of these missiles, not that to get acquainted with the performance characteristics ... I recommend the gallery of North Korean missiles. The picture is clickable, compare with "Scuds" and "Shihabs". By the way, a few years ago it was already mentioned that the DPRK had 6 nuclear charges, then more: “With the most primitive and ineffective way of using this amount of weapon material, that is, using 1945 technologies, it is possible to make 5 bombs of the same the one that was dropped on Hiroshima with a capacity of 15 kilotons (60 kg per charge) .When using technologies similar to the bomb dropped on Nagasaki (a different physical principle is used), with the replacement of plutonium with highly enriched uranium, this amount of uranium can be enough for 12 charges of 20 kilotons (25 kg per charge) .http: //voprosik.net/chem-kndr-shantazhiruet-ameriku/
    "Carry the Korean rocket
    Capable of forty kilotons
    Hack missile defense, NATO soldiers
    Trembling with fear, Fashington! "
    1. Ascetic
      Ascetic 14 December 2012 20: 33
      +1
      Kaa,


      And here the rocket itself before launching on the launch pad, Incidentally, the DPRK has long been exports from 1987 to 2009, North Korea exported 1200 missiles, which is about 40% of the indicated segment of the global arms market. According to some reports, the Pakistani and Iranian launch vehicles of the Gyauri and Shahab class are exact replicas of the North Korean Nodong rocket.
      Recently, however, the DPRK missile reputation has been seriously undermined. The failure of the tests in 2009 and at the beginning of 2012 inspired potential buyers big doubts about the ability of North Korean engineers to build multi-stage long-range ballistic missiles. The current launch should restore the North Korean reputation and, given the extremely turbulent situation in the Middle East, attract new buyers. There is evidence that the Iranian delegation was present at the North Korean launch.
      So all the talk about the wretchedness of the North Korean missile line is pure bluff. The facts speak differently. So Wise Kaa is right, baderlogs need to be wary ... and sit still, especially to Japanese monkeys

  5. Tatarus
    Tatarus 14 December 2012 17: 52
    +2
    "The world community must begin economic and political interaction with the Juche country in order to make lasting changes possible. Force cannot be used against them, because if a war breaks out, the DPRK army will cut out the northern regions of South Korea. So we need to continue containment and start political and economic dialogue. " - something from the "world community", lately, all dialogues with missiles and bombs begin. And what dialogues, so mostly monologues. (Yugoslavia, Libya, etc.)
  6. atos_kin
    atos_kin 14 December 2012 18: 16
    +4
    I had to train students from North Korea. Persistent guys. Lack of knowledge is compensated by cramming. They will not bluff.
  7. Su24
    Su24 14 December 2012 18: 38
    +2
    But North Korea’s goal is to challenge the UN, to show that they don’t care.


    In my opinion, the United States is constantly showing the UN that they do not care.
    Of course, what was to be expected from the Atlantic nits, but why Russia, including condemns this launch, is completely incomprehensible to me. A strong sovereign DPRK, strongly opposing the influence of the United States and its satellites in the region, would objectively be our geopolitical ally.
    1. nerd.su
      nerd.su 14 December 2012 20: 08
      +1
      Quote: Su24
      why Russia, including condemns this launch, is completely incomprehensible to me

      So what to do, politics! We also support Syria, but we are not selling weapons, in pursuance of resolutions. Iran was also refused, because we are trying to live by law. Well, the DPRK is among them. North Koreans were already banned from testing ballistic missiles in two resolutions. They violate, we condemn.
      The trouble is that we are trying to show an example of compliance with the rule of law in the USA, which ignore it, in the international arena. We hope that people reach for us. And in order for people to reach out, as popular wisdom says, you have to be simpler!
  8. uhjpysq
    uhjpysq 14 December 2012 18: 42
    0
    ))))))))) small bug, but smelly))))))))))) tremble the damned bourgeois, Kim will not joke !!!!!!!!!!
  9. Petrovich-2
    Petrovich-2 14 December 2012 18: 56
    +2
    The DPRK missile program is a bluff.
    Yes, yes, of course, a bluff, Christoph, small, calm down, don’t cry, the evil North Koreans are bluffing, suck your thumb, you’ll fall asleep faster ...
  10. Volozhanin
    Volozhanin 14 December 2012 18: 57
    -12
    AND WHAT DO YOU SPECIALLY SPEAK ABOUT? TIME TO END THIS COUNTRY OF IDIOTS. And they are nothing South They won’t do Korea, the southerners remember everything, they know what they are fighting for, with the help of amers they are stomped into the Stone Age, and China this time probably will not help her, because the DPRK is like a small, capricious., Inadequate child who already got everyone. they are to blame for the fact that they once helped to maintain this state, which, in my opinion, embodied only the worst features of the Stalinist USSR. You can minus it, but I see the root of the problem, however, as always. Kim is the third man of the year, I can’t laugh! Only laughter is somehow sad.
  11. 1goose3
    1goose3 14 December 2012 19: 58
    +5
    TIME TO END THIS COUNTRY OF IDIOTS.

    I do not want to offend, but the question begs itself. Listen, did you happen to finish elementary school in the USA? Those end all the same.
    For you, if anything, I apologize.

    Actually, the Americans are never fussing about nothing. They often give out nonexistent as reality, but in this case the opposite. In my opinion, this is confirmation that the DPRK succeeded.
    1. nerd.su
      nerd.su 14 December 2012 20: 31
      +1
      Quote: 1goose3
      Listen, did you happen to finish elementary school in the USA? Those end all the same

      Credit! :))) Yes, comrade megalomania
      Quote: Volozhanin
      but I’m looking at the root of the problem, but as always

      is it a joke! :))

      And the Americans, or rather their power, are in a puddle. How can they now explain to their people that they bombed the wrong country in search of nuclear weapons? While wasting time, money and people in Iraq, under the pretext of a non-existent nuclear weapons, very real nuclear weapons and delivery vehicles appeared in the DPRK. And they don’t even think of North Koreans as people, bourgeois faces!
  12. studentmati
    studentmati 14 December 2012 20: 04
    0
    It is better to overestimate than underestimate the capabilities and perseverance of the people of the DPRK in achieving the goals and objectives set by the Juche ideology!
  13. bart74
    bart74 14 December 2012 20: 35
    +3
    Of course, I rejoice for the success of the North Koreans in the field of rocket science, space exploration and the creation of a closed isolated system, such a micro-world, micro-civilization, where everything is hidden from prying eyes, people live with faith in a bright future, as they say Everything for the Great Korean Power, Great Juche Ideas. People from the diapers brought up in this vein will give the last ration for these Great Goals.
    But I feel with my heart that if in the days of Stalin, the USSR was really SUPER-POWERED and 1/6 land improvements took place right before our eyes, year after year, industry grew, huge facilities were built, food was cheaper, the army was really the most powerful and experienced, seasoned in battles, who knew the bitterness of defeat and the triumph of the victors.
    And only the next "cohort" of tsarisches ditched this country, like a stool kicked out of the socialist ideology, replacing it with ghostly promises to build khvochmunism by 1980 (Khrushch).
    It would not be desirable, but North Korea is a relic of a country professing some incomprehensible JUCHE ideology, a mixture, if not a fascist utopia, then close to this one. At the head of the country is a gang, essentially a family, a mafia, in open text, which is gaining weight on the convulsions of its people as a slave.
    I am truly sorry for the Koreans. And no number of rockets, nor any number of spacecraft launched into outer space without hunyung-tanaut spacesuits and other things can convince me of this!
  14. david210512
    david210512 14 December 2012 20: 46
    0
    nerd.su,totally agree with you !!!!!!!!!
  15. AIR ZNAK
    AIR ZNAK 14 December 2012 21: 28
    -2
    At the moment, for a simple Skverokorets, even the Electric Iron is an element of prestige. The main food in the shops is seafood, seaweed, etc. The regime is closer to Stalin's there, the teachers were still from the USSR.) So far, there is the top leadership in power, the Space Program needed for window dressing on the world stage for the layman. and slogans about the successes of the people under the leadership of the party inside the country. Like we had in our time ** spring passed, summer came, thanks to the party for this **
  16. Nagaibak
    Nagaibak 14 December 2012 21: 59
    +1
    Yes, they all have a bluff and a space program and a nuclear one. Well, and wonderful let some who engage in self-hypnosis. Meanwhile, the DPRK is improving its nuclear missile shield.
  17. Volozhanin
    Volozhanin 14 December 2012 22: 37
    -1
    here is bart74, I wrote everything correctly from the 2nd paragraph
  18. Volozhanin
    Volozhanin 14 December 2012 23: 15
    -2
    in my opinion, for many of the locals, if only anyone, the main thing is to be against the States. I feel sorry for the Koreans, they first suffered from the Japanese, then from their "leaders". Under Stalin, our country developed and became prettier))), but what about these? They are almost eating grass, but there too. PS And I graduated from the most ordinary, Soviet school. But I love my country more than some, who only by name are Russian , but in fact ...
    1. nerd.su
      nerd.su 15 December 2012 02: 46
      0
      Quote: Volozhanin
      In my opinion, for many here, if only anyone, the main thing is that it is against the States

      Ever wondered why so?
    2. nerd.su
      nerd.su 15 December 2012 03: 00
      0
      Quote: Volozhanin
      in my opinion, for many here, if only anyone, the main thing is against the States.

      Ever wondered why so?
      Quote: Volozhanin
      Under Stalin, the country developed and became better))), but what about these? They almost eat grass already, but there

      What are you laughing at? Is there anything funny in this development?
      Koreans, on the other hand, do not eat hamburgers and do not suffer from obesity. If the United States did not keep its nuclear weapons in South Korea, then the North Koreans would not have to spend money on their nuclear program.

      Quote: Volozhanin
      I finished school the most ordinary, Soviet

      Something I doubt. In Soviet schools they taught to love the motherland, and not to convince others that your love for your country is greater than some.
      Nobody canceled the national question, of course. But love for the motherland through such comparisons is foreign to Soviet people.
      In short, it turns out "what kind of Ukrainian lad are you, if you are a ruin nigga?"
  19. boris.radevitch
    boris.radevitch 15 December 2012 03: 20
    0
    Space debris rocket Kim-Chem-Ira will fall into the ocean and burn! wassat
  20. Masterzserg
    Masterzserg 15 December 2012 03: 59
    0
    They decided to reassure themselves. The United States is trying to explain why they killed Iraq, Libya, etc. although they didn’t have anything like that, only in thought, and so reverently talk with the DPRK. The USA is the country of one rocket. This miracle of technology will fall on them and the empire will collapse like a house of cards. They are not ready for war on their territory. For them, war is like a computer game.
  21. Santa Fe
    Santa Fe 17 December 2012 00: 36
    0
    The fact that the DPRK was able to launch the satellite into low Earth orbit, with a delay of 60 years from developed countries, is nothing special

    In our time, space technologies have developed so much that orbital ships (Dragon project) are built even by small private firms.



    "He's alive and glows." Photo - Pyongyang in the morning
    1. Misantrop
      Misantrop 17 December 2012 01: 08
      +1
      Yeah, a small private company. Which includes not the smallest pros from NASA. And they’re building not in the garage with a hammer and crowbar, but by placing orders at the same facilities as the corporation where they come from ... wink
      1. Santa Fe
        Santa Fe 17 December 2012 15: 46
        -1
        Quote: Misantrop
        Yeah, a small private company.

        Shallow. Not any Microsoft, Gazprom or Almaz-Antey. Turnover - 1,3 billion dollars for 10 years, 2000 employees (a couple of years ago their number was no more than 500).

        For Enia: Almaz-Antey holding has a turnover 10 billion dollars a year!

        Quote: Misantrop
        Which includes not the smallest pros from NASA.

        Ordinary engineers. And not only from NASA.

        Quote: Misantrop
        and placing orders at the same facilities as the corporation where they come from ...

        Sure? Wash them all their own.
        In any case, Dragon and Falcon-9 launch vehicles do not require super technologies - there are thousands of production facilities in the world (is it worse, for example, the European MBDA? Or Almaz-Antey assembly plants?) Capable of producing such things

        With all this, "Dragon" is a large 8-ton transport ship
        And the Koreans launched the whistle