According to a number of experts, the global economic crisis, the end of which no one dares to designate, is one of the consequences of geopolitical changes at the turn of the XX – XXI centuries. The subsequent destruction of the bipolar model of the world and the change in the status of many states led to an increase in the number of contradictions between countries and coalitions, which cannot be resolved based on the principles of world order adopted in the middle of the last century and not taking into account the current realities. On the agenda, the creation of new rules that can satisfy different civilizations. Time will tell which way this process will go - peaceful or military.
Today, many experts and analysts talk about the possibility of a world war, which is considered by them as a tool for solving the accumulated problems in modern society.
This is not surprising. The last three decades have been accompanied by global upheavals — the Warsaw Pact and the entire world socialist system collapsed, the Soviet Union collapsed, and China broke out into second place in the world economy. Nanotechnologies, genetic engineering, and other qualitatively new methods and methods of production, marking the transition of the most developed countries of the world to the sixth technological order, are being introduced more and more extensively.
Meanwhile, the principles of the international community in the second half of the twentieth century, largely following the Second World War and the subsequent Cold War, are still at the heart of the modern world order.
That is, we can say that the existing world order does not fully correspond to the new realities. It is this contradiction that underlies the growing crisis phenomena in the world, which are most clearly manifested in the economic sphere.
Therefore, there is a perception that there is a global economic crisis. At present, this is the main factor determining both global and regional political processes and the direction of development of the internal political situation in almost all countries of the world. Despite the emergency measures taken by the leaders of the majority of states to resolve it, success so far has not been achieved.
The reason for the failure of anti-crisis actions is that the global economic crisis is only a manifestation of a deeper and larger-scale civilizational crisis that covers almost all aspects of the life of modern humanity.
This drastic change in modern civilization is generated by a whole system of fundamentally fundamental contradictions of a global nature.
Imbalances and contradictions
The most important factors that gave rise to the global crisis (essentially civilizational) are the following contradictions:
1. Between the growth of production and consumption and the available resources necessary for development, as well as the capabilities of the Earth’s ecosystem to neutralize the negative consequences of human activity. The resolution of this contradiction is possible only by reducing consumption.
2. Between "poor" developing countries (mainly owners of most of the world's raw materials) and "rich" industrialized countries. Its resolution is possible either by introducing fairer global commodity-money relations, or by actually destroying the sovereignty of developing countries, by establishing military-political control over them in one form or another by the states of the industrialized West.
3. Between national and transnational elites. The resolution of the contradiction is possible in one of two ways.
The first of them involves the construction of a unified world state where supranational authorities and various other transnational subjects will dominate with a radical weakening or complete elimination of state sovereignties.
The second is the creation of a world order as a community of sovereign states, reflecting the interests of their peoples, where supranational bodies play only a coordinating role.
4. Between the volume of the global "financial bubble" and the scale of the real sector of the global economy. Its resolution is possible either by eliminating (in any form) this speculative bubble, which is fraught with the loss of power by the transnational financial elite, or by its “conversion” into the real economy, which will mean the establishment of undivided domination of the transnational financial elite over the world.
5. Between the lack of spirituality of the “free market”, implanting the power of money, and the spiritual foundations of the existence of civilizations that form intercivilizational differences, giving rise to the struggle for the domination of ideas. Resolution of this is possible through the establishment of a single spiritual foundation of the world order.
Disproportions and contradictions that served as the basis for the current civilizational crisis, cover all spheres of human activity and, accordingly, changes in society aimed at eliminating it, should apply to all components of the world order. That is, we are talking about building a qualitatively new world order, which differs from the existing one in all major aspects.
For this reason, measures aimed at overcoming the economic (in particular financial) crisis do not allow and will not allow to resolve this civilizational turn.
Assessing the possibility of a new world
An analysis of possible options for eliminating today's imbalances and contradictions shows that they are antagonistic in nature and without significant prejudice to the interests of certain major geopolitical entities, the crisis will not be overcome. And this means the inevitability of the use of force to get out of this situation. Given the global nature of this process, it can be assumed that the scale of these hostilities can become global.
The experience of resolving two such fractures of civilization in the early and mid-twentieth century shows that overcoming them occurred through world wars — the First and the Second.
Thus, it can be assumed that the developing crisis can generate a new global war and can only be resolved by its outcome. The probability of a large-scale armed conflict, based on objective assumptions, can be assessed as average.
What could be the likely nature of this war?
The main components that determine the nature of any armed confrontation are the participants, their objectives, the use of weapon, the main stages, the factors determining the course and possible outcomes of the conflict.
Likely warring parties and their goals
World War will, of course, coalition. The composition of the parties will determine the commitment of specific countries (more precisely, their elites) to one or another model of the new world order, which they are ready to defend.
An analysis of possible options for resolving imbalances and contradictions shows that a future world order can be built only on one of two models.
The first, which, according to its essence, can be called “the world of civilization hierarchy”, when few “chosen ones”, defining themselves as “the intellectual core of humanity”, preserve and increase the achieved level of consumption due to the cruel exploitation of the rest of humanity with artificial reduction of its number, bringing to critically minimal level of its material consumption and spiritual degradation.
The implementation of this model implies the disappearance of intercivilizational differences - the unification of peoples, and in fact the destruction of different civilizations with the division of all mankind into two “supercivilizations” - the “golden billion” and all the other “exploited subhumans”.
Today, this is manifested in the division of countries into industrialized ones, which have the prospect of further development and the global periphery, which is doomed to degradation in the spiritual, economic, and demographic terms.
The second model could be called “civilization mutual support” or “civilization harmony”. In this embodiment, the goal of globalization is not to unify, but to move upwards all existing civilizations, while preserving and expanding the “field of development” for each nation, which forms the basis for the evolution of each and all of them. This is the path to the future.
That is, in essence, a new global war will be fought for the spiritual foundations of building a new world order: the foundation of the future world order will be either individualism, egoism, suppression of one subject by another, survival at the expense of others, or community, the domination of common interests over private ones, the principle of coexistence over mutual support account.
This is its qualitative difference from the two previous world wars, which were conducted mainly for the economic division of the world.
This allows conceptually determining the composition of possible coalitions in a future world war. They will be two:
1. The so-called industrialized countries of Western civilization, the spiritual foundations of which are based on individualism and the material principle, generating the power of money. This emerging community of states claims to be the world hegemon that controls all the resources of the earth, and is aimed at destroying all other geopolitical entities.
2. The countries of the Orthodox, Islamic and other civilizations in which the spiritual principle dominates over the material, the general over the particular, individual, which objectively orient themselves towards a multi-polar world order.
Currently, the core of the first coalition has already been formed not only politically, but also military-political in the form of a NATO bloc. His global goal in the new full-scale war is clearly understood: the establishment of world domination is a unipolar world.
The elites of the countries of this coalition clearly, first of all at the spiritual level, imagine the main adversary, which at this stage primarily identifies Islamic and Orthodox civilizations.
The community of states oriented towards a multipolar world order capable of forming a second coalition has not yet realized the commonness of its geopolitical interests, not to mention any political or military-political arrangement of a single union. Some of his prototype could serve as the SCO or CSTO.
Today there is no clearly developed, universally recognized model of a new world order in the variant of a multipolar world.
Under these conditions, it is natural that the objectively existing global goal of the countries of the second community - the establishment of a fair multipolar world - is not fully realized by them.
Therefore, there is no understanding of the main task of the states of this coalition in a global conflict - the failure of attempts to establish world domination of Western civilization in the form of a unipolar world order.
This gives the West an opportunity to push them in a brutal internecine struggle. We see Muslims being pitted against Orthodox and Hindus, splitting Islam itself, pushing Sunnis and Shiites together.
Based on the essence of the goals of the first community, it can be called the neo-imperialist coalition, while the second is the anti-imperialist coalition.
Assessing the likely goals of the neo-imperialist coalition, its main global task in world war will be to defeat the unification of countries seeking a multipolar world, with political or even military-political control over them and the elimination or radical weakening of their state sovereignty.
Possible targets for the actions of the anti-imperialist coalition, its main global task should be to repel aggression and disrupt the building of a monopolar world while preserving its state sovereignty and the subsequent building of a multipolar world pattern.
Given the decisiveness of the objectives of the parties in the upcoming world war, one should expect that in its course all the most advanced types of weapons and military equipment, including weapons of mass destruction, will be used:
1. Information weapons will be used at all stages of the preparation and development of a global armed conflict in peacetime and wartime, which is determined by the high secrecy of its impact on the enemy and the lack of an international legal framework that effectively regulates its use. These weapons will become the main means of struggle in the peace period, and with the onset of hostilities will be used in the interests of providing armed forces.
2. Conventional weapons will be used by the parties in full with the outbreak of hostilities. The rationale for this will be to create at least the minimum appropriate moral, psychological and regulatory framework. Before the outbreak of war, one should expect its limited use by special operations forces in the interests of ensuring the effectiveness of information weapons. Conventional types of weapons will be used by the parties to solve almost all tasks.
3. The main types of non-nuclear weapons of mass destruction (WMD) that can be used are chemical and biological. The possibility of covert use of biological weapons will allow it to be activated not only during hostilities, but also during the peace period. Undoubtedly, the ease of production and use will have a significant impact on the scale and methods of its use, allowing this type of weapons of mass destruction to be activated even by non-state and relatively limited organizations. An important factor reducing the likely scale of the use of biological weapons will be the threat of major epidemics or even a pandemic.
4. Nuclear weapons are currently the most powerful weapons of mass destruction possessed by a limited number of countries of the “nuclear club” and some others that are not formally part of it (in particular, Israel, possibly Iran in the future). The use of these weapons of mass destruction is likely to be extremely limited in scope and mainly to intimidate the enemy in order to force him to abandon the escalation of the war or further struggle. Large-scale use of nuclear weapons is unlikely due to the fact that this would mean a national catastrophe for countries that exchanged massive blows, with their likely disappearance from the face of the earth as state entities.
Other components of the analysis of the possible nature of the global confrontation - the state of the proposed coalitions, the main stages of the war, the factors that determine the course and possible outcomes of its outcome, will be presented in one of the nearest issues of the weekly "VPK".