Mikhail Khazin: The collapse of the "global world": how it will be

Mikhail Khazin: The collapse of the "global world": how it will beThe main operating mechanism of the world’s disintegration into currency zones is spelled out quite clearly in our theory: a decrease in aggregate demand due to the inability to maintain it at a level that significantly exceeds the population’s real disposable income will lead to a fall in the level of division of labor. This, in turn, will reduce the value added created in the economy, which will make it unprofitable to maintain the global infrastructure of the global division of labor system. And, accordingly, it will break up into more “cheaper” in terms of service fragments.

But this, so to speak, is a generalized model. But how will all this happen in practice, who and how, with its natural actions, will provoke the disintegration of the world into currency zones? And here you can also give some explanations and explanations.

As Sergei Yegishchyants told us (with reference to official statistics, of course), the overwhelming part of the profits of companies from the S & P500 index came from only four of them. From the point of view of the theory of crisis, this is natural: since further expansion of markets is impossible, the deepening of the division of labor (that is, intensive growth) also fails, which entails a crisis of falling capital efficiency. That is, there are investments, but there is no return on them (profit).

Someone will say that this is not quite true, since the total profit of the index is still quite decent, and, thus, we are talking only about the redistribution of money between companies. To this, however, there is a serious objection, which consists in the fact that it is necessary to take into account the global increase in profits associated with the issue. And, thus, we get approximately the following picture: the total profit falls, but some companies compensate for this by accessing emission money.

Then you can argue who and how it does, but this is not quite a theory of crisis. We still once again note that in this place the theory is well confirmed in practice. And it is precisely here that one practical mechanism can be noted, which can precisely ensure the achievement of the theoretical conclusion described above. So, consider a typical country (or region) that is included in the global division of labor and has both export and import flows. The standard of living in the country is gradually falling, as export flows deteriorate, as does domestic support for demand. The question arises: how to compensate them?

The natural option is to start import substitution. In a normally growing global economy, this is far from always possible: investments in creating own production are large, domestic markets for their compensation are insufficient, and the WTO rules prohibit them from being closed for import. At the same time, world leaders are not asleep and are flooding your market with modern designs, while you are seriously lagging behind. In general, the game is not worth the candle.

A completely different situation in a crisis of falling capital efficiency. New items are quite rare, and, most importantly, they are not so new. In addition, people have less money, and they begin to look not only at the novelty and bells and whistles, but at the duration of work and efficiency. Finally, the cost of the production base falls all the time: it becomes easier and simpler to buy a plant. And the protection of their markets can be carried out including due to the devaluation of the national currency.

For example, take modern Russia. The total imports here are about 400 billions of dollars a year. Suppose (I did not carry out an exact analysis — perhaps more) that half of this money can be closed by import substitution. Then we will get a double picture: on the one hand, Russian producers will get more profit on 200 billions, and on the other hand, consumers will increase their purchasing power on a substantial part of these same 200 billions (since they will receive a salary). Agree, not so bad!

And now - how much investment can we “swallow”? If we proceed from the yield in 10% (which is not so little in the current environment), then in Russia today we can safely invest in the import-substituting production of 2 trillion dollars! At the same time, a part of this money can be taken on the domestic market, and eventually, it is possible to switch almost completely to the ruble provision of this turnover. Here you are, by the way, and the ruble financial center, about which they speak so much in the Kremlin and our government, only things are there.

A similar situation, only on a different scale, occurs in many countries of the world. But at the same time you need to understand: if we refuse to import, then someone receives less profit! And, accordingly, it becomes more and more difficult for him to maintain all sorts of costly infrastructure facilities. At the same time, it is becoming more and more difficult for national governments to abandon the proposed scheme, since this is a real tool for compensating the living standards of the population, and politicians cannot ignore the population, otherwise you can lose power! Well, more precisely, some time, of course, will be ignored, but in the end, the decision will still have to be taken!

But as soon as such a process enters its full potential, it becomes not only difficult, but almost impossible, to hope for the preservation of a unified system of division of labor and single financial markets. Markets will begin to rapidly become fragmented, and it’s good if the process ends at the level of large clusters of 5-6. It is possible that they will begin to disintegrate further. However, this is already outside the discussion of this text.
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  1. +4
    11 December 2012 07: 01
    "Markets will begin to rapidly fragment, and it is good if this process ends at the level of 5-6 large clusters." - Maybe in the global world, clusters and fragmentation will "let down", but in Russia the phrase will work - "The upper classes cannot, but the lower classes do not want to!"
    1. +4
      11 December 2012 15: 05
      Yes, you can get out of this situation as a winner, if you act correctly ...
      1. +2
        11 December 2012 18: 23
        The energy system of Russia is just the right action. We observe the formation of the energy cluster Europe-Russia-Asia. In principle, there is hope for the development of other elements - food, transport, defense, etc.
        All this, of course, provided that the Russian Armed Forces are maintained and augmented at the highest level. At least in a cluster, even without it - you’ll have to mate.
  2. +6
    11 December 2012 07: 02
    Article +! An interesting vision of this situation!
    1. +5
      11 December 2012 09: 02
      It's just that Mother Nature does not tolerate the dominance of one species over all, in fact, does not tolerate the dominance of one uniform. Therefore, globalization is a utopia, like all previously existing utopias, is pumped into a banal fiasco. And you don't have to be a prophet, since the laws of conservation ... exist at all levels of our being. And if you neglect this, you will get a "face in table" and Nature will once again point out to the one who is too presumptuous of his true place in this world. Well, if not already in the dustbin of civilizations. Although the United States for these 200 years and its atrocities has deserved complete oblivion.
      1. +1
        11 December 2012 10: 35
        Globalization, if possible, is similar to the type of the Russian Empire or Russian civilization, where peoples and nationalities are preserved, including their cultural differences, where representatives of these peoples are equal and can be allowed to rule on a par with the titular nation.
        1. +1
          11 December 2012 12: 51
          Quote: neri73-r
          Globalization, if possible, is similar to the type of the Russian Empire or Russian civilization, where peoples and nationalities are preserved, including their cultural differences, where representatives of these peoples are equal and can be allowed to rule on a par with the titular nation.

          Approximately correct. One nuance, so that it works and does not fall apart, we need a common idea for all, without exception. Current globalizers do not have one, or rather they are for the elite. The final will be logical.
  3. +5
    11 December 2012 07: 07
    If you replace half of the import, even in the news, the West will screech in all its media about the violations of the WTO rules by Russia. Although the dog barks, the caravan goes. It would not be bad to completely replace the import and become in every sense a self-sufficient country, but it will be difficult to do this .
    1. Fox
      11 December 2012 07: 11
      The USSR was a self-sufficient country ... and even a bunch of loafers, such as Bulgaria, Romania contained.
      1. Karish
        11 December 2012 07: 54
        Quote: Fox
        The USSR was a self-sufficient country ... and even a bunch of loafers, such as Bulgaria, Romania contained.

        North Korea is the same self-sufficient as Albania and Romania (20 years ago. It is necessary to tie the standard of living of the population to self-sufficiency, to complete the picture.
        1. 0
          11 December 2012 19: 38
          Quote: Karish
          For self-sufficiency, it is also necessary to tie the standard of living of the population, to complete the picture.

          The larger the state, not only in territorial terms, but also in terms of population, resources, educational level, etc., the higher the level of localization of production can be higher, and the effect of market closure on living standards is lower. That is, if Romania paid for a relatively high level of self-sufficiency of the economy, a decrease in the level of population consumption, then a state of the scale of the Russian Empire with its human, raw materials, territorial resources, a high level of education and science, can ensure the self-sufficiency of the economy without significantly reducing the standard of living of the population. At the same time, the stability and predictability of the economy increases, and the so-called notorious confidence in the future of IMHO appears, so to speak.
      2. +2
        11 December 2012 08: 35
        If, by stupidity, they had not gotten involved in an arms race, but approached reasonably. now, most likely, USA would fall apart already, well, the darmoed brothers helped to eat everything.
    2. Karish
      11 December 2012 07: 52
      Quote: Alexander Romanov
      If you replace half of the import, then even in an attack, the West will screech in all its media about Russia's violations of WTO rules

      Alexander, look real, is the screech of the West is this what limits Russia? It does not release anything and there is simply nothing to replace half of the import. Or spend 10 years on the creation of infrastructure and plants (what should be done correctly and necessary) Only who will do this?
      Quote: Alexander Romanov
      It would not be bad to completely replace imports and become in every sense a self-sufficient country, but it will be difficult for Krajina

      In modern conditions is not real.
      1. +6
        11 December 2012 09: 19
        Quote: Karish
        Only who will do this?

        - the same oligarchs can easily. If they are driven into an appropriate stall. And this can be done in two ways - administrative and market. In the first case - literally at gunpoint. They will run away, bastards, and they will take capital with them. In the second case, it is more difficult - it is necessary to create such conditions that it would be more profitable not to drill a hole and shove well fluid from the hole to the west, and then leave the money in the West. By the way, if anything, the West here is a competitor to Russia in terms of investing money from the sold well fluid - they offer yachts, real estate and other. That is, they offer a developed industry of luxury and consumption instead of investing in factories in Russia. And until recently, it successfully competed - a yacht did not add unnecessary headaches to the owner, it was growing steadily in price, while a factory in Russia has a headache, a lot of work and the danger of a raider or even government attack. Now it is very doubtful that the yacht will increase in price. This moment needs to be caught in order to implement the second way to make the oligarchs work for the benefit of Russia. The oligarchs are neither good nor bad. They are rational. If the oligarch is not rational, but acts fundamentally to the detriment of Russia, then this is not an oligarch, but an agent disguised as an oligarch, and his place is next to the hodor. So, seizing the moment means that creating the rules of the game is such that a factory in Russia is more profitable than a yacht in the West and does not deliver such headaches. But this requires a complex infrastructure. Including personnel. That is, the presence of a good corps of top managers. A good corps of engineers. A good body of highly skilled workers. It does not appear out of the blue. A lot of what is needed for this.

        Quote: Karish
        In modern conditions is not real.

        - this is real. But we need to work in this direction now. Yesterday there was a message - in Russia, the demand for engineers has quadrupled. And he remained unsatisfied. What shows Russia's unpreparedness for new realities. But this does not mean that it is unrealistic, it just means that the above are not competent enough. Education Minister Fursenko does not work with the Minister of Commerce and Industry in a mutual agreement in responding to all these challenges. \ as a result, there is no agreement on the work of the state apparatus. And this is just one example.
        1. +4
          11 December 2012 10: 03
          Quote: aksakal
          that a factory in Russia is more profitable than a yacht in the West, and does not deliver such headaches

          The massive and unpunished flight of disgraced oligarchs with fantastic, stolen capital abroad simply infuriates the popular consciousness, regardless of the level of education and life. The people just crave punishment for the renegades, the government is inactive. Opposition, in terms of theft, is even worse than power. And with our people, not everything is clear, it is by no means a lamb of God. As Count Arakcheev used to say, the main occupation of Russian citizens is to steal, and at least half of the subjects, from small to large, from poor to oligarchs, are stealing. It would be half the trouble if they would spend stolen goods in Russia, build houses, summer cottages, factories, buy things, go to sanatoriums, on the Black Sea coast and spend grandmothers there. So no. Slightly stolen and over the hill, the poor tourist, the middle peasant strives to buy a house somewhere in Macedonia, an oligarch factory somewhere in Britain. Take out billions of dollars. And all for nothing, they’ll throw everywhere. Turks will poison the poor fellow with viskar or turn upside down with a bus, near the middle peasant a house in Macedonia is requisitioned by Albanians on a specious pretext, the Chinese factory will ruin the oligarch. Only one zilch remains, neither to himself, nor to the country, nor to people. Such is the main Russian misfortune, it is more serious than fools and roads, and especially import substitution.
          1. +1
            11 December 2012 10: 38
            Quote: Centurion
            steal, and steal at least half of the subjects, from small to large, from the poor to the oligarchs.

            - I don’t know about you in Russia, but we have peace and harmony in Kazakhstan. True, the rules that we agreed to do not suit everyone, especially honest people. This is the agreement - you are at the top, steal deposits for yourself and fight among yourself, we are below, we will also do this. So they live and the established rules of the game are observed. You know from Huizinga - there is such a scientist, he wrote very good things, read it, according to him, the sharper is punished much softer than the one who openly does not recognize the rules of the game. The population is quietly "bombing" in their cars, not paying a dime in taxes. Quietly populates the land of the suburbs without any permission and in response is silent on the theft above. But somehow the akim of the city (the governor, according to you) decided to put things in order and evict illegal settlements (and they are really illegal, people just came and cut themselves a piece of land and erected a hut). So there they showed what would happen in case of violation of the aforementioned and established rules of the game! That is, do you want everything according to the law? Ok, then you know what will happen to you, if according to the law? But look! And they burned a policeman LIVE! In the performance of their duties! Nobody bore responsibility, the frightened authorities legalized this self-settlement, and that was the end of the matter. This is the agreement.
            Here's how to break that agreement? What to do, so that both people below are tired and people above?
            1. +1
              11 December 2012 12: 47
              Quote: aksakal
              I don’t know how you are in Russia, but we have peace and harmony in Kazakhstan. True, those rules, on which they agreed, do not suit everybody, first of all, honest people.

              Such consent is called corruption. Mankind has amassed tremendous experience in the fight against corruption in its history. In the 20 century, Singapore’s prime minister Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore’s prime minister from Singapore 1959 to 1990, especially distinguished himself in this unchanged year. Though the east is a subtle thing, the ugly recipes are simple:
              - Fighting corruption is simple. It is necessary that there is a person at the top who is not afraid to put his friends and relatives
              - Start by planting three of your friends. You know exactly what, and they know what.

              In our history, also in the 20 century, there was a leader who had succeeded a lot in the fight against corruption. By the way, he worked according to the same recipes that Lee Kuan Yew. Another thing is that the fight against corruption was then given an overly politicized character and, as a result, they fouled up this matter. In fact, at least half of the repressed were pure thieves and embezzlers. Although it may not be muddied. Here for example the current thief, who stole the stolen loot for the hill and investing the stolen in a foreign economy. He is not just a thief, he is also the ENEMY OF PEOPLE and the CHANGER OF HOMELAND.
              1. +1
                11 December 2012 14: 09
                Quote: Centurion
                Such consent is called corruption.

                - not quite so, it is more the consent of the population (I don't really want to write the word "people" in this case) with the corrupt method of government. Yes, in prinitsy, as we call it, it doesn't matter. It is important that we understand what it is about.
                Quote: Centurion
                Fighting corruption is easy. We need a man upstairs who is not afraid to plant his friends and relatives. Start by planting your three friends. You know exactly what, and they know why.

                - About Lee Kuan Yu, I was the first to write. He wrote in a dispute with Karish, which suggests that only radical liberal methods can be effective in the fight against corruption. That is unbridled media and an elective orgy. As a result, the unbridled media degenerates into the servicing of oligarchs in the inter-clan struggle with each other, and the election leads to the power of blowers and rapists (without fingers, we are all aware).

                Li Kuan Yu already spent forty years in power. He had only one - the only party in parliament was, and he did not bathe. In general, at first, he gave the entire economy to foreigners, not just deposits.
                But not all LiKuan Yuevskoye can be used in Russian conditions. I am not talking about any restrictions on the fundamental freedoms of man. For example, such as a rather exotic quota of nationalities of residents moving in both new homes and secondary housing. Where else was this seen ?! Just a complete tyrant and dictator, from the point of view of some liberal. And in a multi-ethnic Russia, such things are fraught. The main thing is that for Li Kuan Yu in the first place were precisely the interests of society. And for the sake of these public interests, Li Kuan Yu sometimes went including unpopular measures. And society over the past years has also adapted to it. When the boss himself does what he says, then he has the moral right to demand the same from his subordinates, including hard demand. And vice versa. At the same time, no one in Singapore can blame the former prime minister that he personally raped something from the reforms, except for unquestioned authority and public respect (by the way, he is now in authority. When the first years of reforms were in progress, there were enough dissatisfied, and tough. As Putin is criticized, this is compared to what Li Quan Yu had to endure - flowers. That is why he had to act authoritarian. We are waiting for similar authoritarian measures, just tired of waiting.
          2. +2
            11 December 2012 14: 52
            How do you like the idea of ​​introducing a duty (for the benefit of pensioners, for example) on the export of minerals from the country .. You look and you don’t need a lot of workers to feed pensioners ?! The deeper the processing of products, the more high-tech products you export, the lower the duty (tax) ... And if minerals from a country are taken out by a company not registered in the Russian Federation (any offshore company), the tax on the export of minerals must be raised several times !!! In general, offshore registrations are registered in order to evade taxes, which means that the products and services provided by these companies must be taxed and we will receive profit in the budget and reduce the flight of capital ...
        2. 0
          11 December 2012 14: 28
          Fursenko ruined our education and, thank God, he is no longer a minister ... True, what Levin is like I haven’t figured out yet ... In the meantime, I propose the simplest measures Do doctors and teachers, agronomists, and other specialties need to calculate how many ( to give instructions to the administrations of districts and cities) and ... to allocate a given number of budget places in universities and technical schools (in which the heads of districts and cities will determine) so that graduates should work 5 years where they are told. We need some specialists for the enterprises of the military-industrial complex and large state corporations, the same option, but the leaders of the enterprises will determine which universities the students will be studying ... Now we’ll immediately decide which educational institutions the country needs and which ones don’t ... It’s worth considering how much you can rip off the owners of oil and gas enterprises to support the work of educational institutions to train specialists for them ... + a certain number of budget places, primarily in technical universities for the most talented (with high marks in the EG, winners of olympiads), is there still money please let The Ministry of Education decides who else we will give budget places ... But only in this order, and not vice versa ... But there is a special conversation with the oligarchs, you won’t be able to swap them ... But something can and should be invented ...
          1. 0
            11 December 2012 18: 16
            And there is a special conversation with the oligarchs, you won’t be able to swoop them off ...

            Why take them? Examples of Berezovsky, Gusinsky, Luzhkov, Khodorkovsky and others, smaller, clearly showed two simple truths:
            1- these oligarchs of the n.a.h.r.p.n. are not needed by anyone, journalists rush with them while they have money
            2- the presence of an oligarch or its absence for the country's population is absolutely violet. If Prokhorov dies tomorrow - what, will Norilsk Nickel stop, or what? No, for it was not Prokhorov who bought the products. He’s just a landlord at the factory, that's all.

            So everything is simple, no one to regret.
            1. 0
              12 December 2012 00: 43
              I agree ... But unfortunately, while the Prokhorovs and others are deciding who the country needs and who does not ... And Putin is forced to reckon with them no less than the head of any municipal district, who is forced to coordinate his actions with the heads of farms and enterprises on the territory district ... And our opinion about the need for oligarchs for them is also violet ... But ... as they say: "The road will be mastered by the one walking" ... "We will see!"
    3. 0
      11 December 2012 21: 21
      Unfortunately, Russia, in the foreseeable future, cannot become a self-sufficient country. Not enough workers, it is impossible to have a population of about 145 thousand people to release everything from cowards to rockets. Therefore, the interstate division of labor will continue, but it is preferable for us to make rockets and buy pants, and not vice versa. smile
      1. 0
        17 December 2012 13: 03
        But it seems to me that rockets are more profitable than cowards. Modernization of cowards is limited, and missiles can be improved all the time. One condition: most of them are sold for export. Secondly, not all manufacturers of cowards can make a rocket. So it's better to invest in missiles
  4. +3
    11 December 2012 07: 40
    Yeah, and now these loafers bark at Russia, they would bite, but they’ll lose their teeth. The USSR - this lost Russian Empire, and now just the Russian Federation. We are entering some WTO, other international organizations and foundations, and they are ruining us quietly. Some ruin us, others hayut. When will there be a holiday on our street ?!
    1. 0
      11 December 2012 20: 29
      Quote: Sergg
      When will there be a holiday on our street ?!

      When KAMAZ with gingerbread rolls over there !!! wink
  5. donchepano
    11 December 2012 08: 43
    Russia may well be able to provide itself with foodstuffs already within 2-5 years, and eventually go for export
  6. +1
    11 December 2012 09: 50
    A lot has already been done on import substitution. Development programs have been successfully implemented and the import of poultry meat, eggs, bread products, pipes, metal-roll, nuclear and power engineering products, and helicopters has almost ceased, and these industries are exported. Programs are being implemented and the share of imports of cars, electronics, household appliances, pork meat, metal products 3 and 4 redistribution, some types of equipment is rapidly decreasing. More needs to be done. Every year, huge amounts of money are exported abroad to pay for imports of metallurgical, mining, engineering, agricultural, food processing equipment, beef, ships and airplanes, clothing and footwear. In these areas, the share of domestic producers is undeservedly small. These import substitution programs are under development or only at the beginning of implementation.
    At the same time, following the example of commodity countries with developed economies of import substitution, such as Canada or Australia, one should not go too far. They do not force the production and export of finished products. They, for example, have several places where iron ore and coking coal deposits are closely located. It would seem that God himself ordered the construction of a metallurgical plant there and the export of finished steel. But they prefer to export coal and iron ore concentrate, and let the metal from these concentrates be produced in China, Korea, Japan. There are several reasons for this.
    - at current prices from the extraction and enrichment of raw materials, a good and stable income
    - with the development of production for more advanced processing of raw materials for export, along with value added, there remains “smoke and dirt” in the country and many other undesirable environmental problems that require high costs for waste disposal and emissions
    - relatively small population in these countries. If in the mining industry there is a relatively high labor productivity, which does not require large imports of labor, then with the excessive development of the manufacturing industry for export, large imports of labor from Asia are required, which introduces many undesirable demographic problems.
    So in these questions there is something to learn from them. Therefore, attention should be focused primarily on import substitution, and not on the production of finished products for export.

    1. +1
      11 December 2012 11: 47
      Quote: Centurion
      relatively small population in these countries. If the mining industry has relatively high labor productivity, which does not require a large import of labor, then with the overdevelopment of the manufacturing industry for export, a large import of labor from Asia is required, which brings with it many undesirable demographic problems. to learn. Therefore, attention should be focused primarily on import substitution, and not on the production of finished products for export.

      plus to you, centurion, everything is right. Just underestimate the development of current technology. It is possible to supply such a metallurgical complex that will produce steel and cast iron in millions of tons, and only a couple of dozens of very highly skilled shift workers will be required to service it. In Japan, there are those called deserted plants.
      Another thing is that if you do just that and not put that metallurgical plant in China, it turns out that there will be no one to sell the products of that metallurgical complex - the Chinese cannot buy anything because of the lack of jobs, and so many such products in Canada itself from -for the small population is not necessary. Plus, hunger in China and destabilization around the world because of this. This is a form of maintaining equilibrium. The world is balancing like that. But Russia is a little different. Russia can do just that! It is to set up uninhabited factories and export products. This is not to be missed, it is precisely Russia that can take advantage of this unique position.
      1. mamba
        11 December 2012 15: 16
        Quote: aksakal
        Russia can do just that! It is to set up uninhabited factories and export products.

        To do this, you need to buy such technologies, build such plants, prepare qualified personnel to work on them. All this requires money and considerable. Where can I get them if everything is stolen?
        1. +1
          11 December 2012 15: 29
          Quote: mamba
          To do this, you need to buy such technologies, build such plants, prepare qualified personnel to work on them. All this requires money and considerable. Where can I get them if everything is stolen?

          - Good question-))))))). And there is no answer.
          But you can do two things, two opposite things, but with approximately the same result.
          There, LiCuan Yu and the centurion discussed above. But for this, instead of Putin we need LiKuan Yu, or forced Putin to become like Likuan Yu
          Or to hold events such that it would be more profitable for a reptile to steal to buy not a yacht and a house in London, but to invest exactly as you indicated. This will also work, but there is a significant minus - in this case justice will be violated, and I generally am silent about the attitude to the law. Nihilism will blossom And the Formuchanians have already noted that it is precisely at an unacceptably high level of nihilism and an unacceptably low level of mutual trust of everyone and everyone in society and in the first place of society to power and vice versa that the main causes of our problems lie. Well, there is still an excessive cult of money in the appendage, which would not seem a little.
          In short, economic efficiency can be achieved taking into account the interests of the people (the so-called powerful social policy), and without it, without taking into account the interests of the people, even on the contrary, due to its ruthless exploitation. and at first, the second may even be more effective, but in the historical perspective, the first option is much more preferable. Not to mention the banal comfort of living
          1. 0
            12 December 2012 00: 55
            Pinochet had an efficient economy, but it was based on authoritarianism. In general, it is almost impossible to make an economic breakthrough without authoritarian governing of the country, unless of course anyone is interested in financing your democratic development with financial resources from abroad, which leads to a partial loss of sovereignty ...
  7. Rezun
    11 December 2012 09: 54
    yes no, brothers, it's a little easier ...
  8. +1
    11 December 2012 17: 28
    The world is a living organism with its own defense mechanisms, living according to its own laws that are not fully understood and there is no need to expect any special decay or half-life from it. Some of its constituent parts from time to time unite (join the collective farm) and some prefer to live separately, although no one succeeds in isolating themselves from the rest of the world. Therefore, all these "klikuhi" like "globalization" and all kinds of ".... isms" have nothing to do with real life. In the same way, the national interests of each country are in fact nothing more than a set of selfish interests of the "powerful" of this country. The worst thing is if these skins provoke a big war. And if it does without it, then this world will not go anywhere.

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