Georgia and Russia: Saakashvili has already faded, but Ivanishvili has not yet begun to shine
I. The American view of Georgian democracy and the Russian “dictatorship”At the end of November in the popular American online edition "The Daily Beast" An article by Eli Lake, who considers Georgia as the main ally of NATO, was published, but with sadness tells of the wrong Georgian democracy, which is about to be destroyed by numerous arrests.
Eli Lake is a correspondent for The Daily Beast and Newsweek, a specialist in national security. He previously wrote analytical articles for The Washington Times. This man lived for a long time in Cairo and visited the wars in Sudan, Iraq and the Gaza Strip. He is one of those journalists who tell the world the truth about Iraq, Iran and North Korea. Now Mr. Lake took up the Georgian question. He beats the alarm because Georgia, as it seems to him, is rapidly moving away from the ideals of American democracy.
The journalist describes the arrest of 7 in November by George Kalandadze, the chief of the joint headquarters of the Georgian armed forces. This senior officer, according to the analyst, was about to meet soldiers returning home from Afghanistan. But instead of a solemn ceremony in front of the cameras, Mr. Kalandadze was taken into custody and charged with physical violence against soldiers. He spent two days in prison. (The preliminary hearing on this case will probably take place on December 25. - O. C).
Mr. Kalandadze was the last link in the long chain of attacks on the party and the associates of Mikhail Saakashvili - the president of Georgia, who came to power in 2003 during the “rose revolution”. The Saakashvili government, the American journalist notes, was a darling of the West and an oasis in the post-Soviet region, where tensions with the United States grew due to the spreading influence of Russia, which is now oriented toward dictatorship.
In contrast to such countries as Armenia, Uzbekistan, Ukraine, the author continues, the Georgian government openly opposed the expansion of Russian influence in the region, seeking to establish a defense and economic partnership with the United States and Europe. Georgia sent its military contingent to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. And Saakashvili called the famous Senator John McCain his personal friend.
But the trouble is: in his own country, says the journalist, the brilliance of Saakashvili began to fade. But ultimately, this tarnishing may undermine Georgia’s relations with the United States. Now, oppositionists accuse the president of using the same Soviet-style tactics against which he fought. Here and listening to the phone of young oppositionists, and arrests of political activists. Against this background, Saakashvili’s party lost its votes in the October elections, and the Georgian Dream coalition, led and financed by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, won.
Undoubtedly, the elections were recognized as free and fair, but after all, as a result, the Georgian government can be broken in half. There was a situation in which Saakashvili, remaining president until the end of 2013, still controls the army and national security agencies. Meanwhile, his main rival and new prime minister, Ivanishvili, controls the Ministry of Justice. This ministry took up the purge of Saakashvili’s supporters: a whole wave of arrests took place, including the detention of Kalandadze. All this, of course, caused criticism from the EU and the US State Department, the author writes.
Senator McCain also worried about the undemocratic situation in Georgia. He said this in a private telephone conversation with the Georgian president.
John McCain conveyed in a recent interview to reporters: "He (Saakashvili) is very concerned about the actions taken by the new Prime Minister and the threats to people who served him earlier." And Saakashvili responded by saying that he was worried about “arrests, threats and other signs of lack of respect for democratic processes.”
As for the new government, Irakli Alasania, the current Minister of Defense of Georgia and a member of the Georgian Dream coalition, declares: “We are striving for transparency in this case and in all cases” (meaning, among other things, the arrest of Kalandadze). “With all due respect to Senator McCain,” added Irakli Alasania, “I think his assessment is wrong ...”
But Vano Merabishvili, the former prime minister and political ally of Saakashvili, continues Eli Lake, claiming that he, too, is under threat of prosecution and that he may face imprisonment. “This is a fundamental intolerance towards the opposition, the media and local governments,” he said.
But Alasania says in response that this is not the case, and says that one of the main reasons for the victory of his party in the elections is that the Georgians no longer trust the justice system formed under Saakashvili. What can I say? Indeed, the author writes, one of the first steps of the new parliamentary majority was the announcement of the re-investigation of a number of high-profile espionage cases in which the citizens of Georgia were accused of spying for Russia.
(It should be noted here that the Georgian parliament at the December 5 meeting approved list of persons who are declared political prisoners or persecuted for political reasons. In total, the list included 190 political prisoners and 25 politically persecuted. The first category included 11 convicts in the Enver spy case. Among the convicts are citizens of Georgia and Russia. The list also included Russian Ruslan Skrylnikov (sentenced to 2011 years in prison in 14; according to Georgian special services, Skrylnikov was a liaison between the GRU General Staff of the Russian army and the GRU residency in Georgia). Political prisoners were also declared 20 people convicted in the case of an attempted insurgency at a military base in Mukhrovani, which occurred in the spring of 2009. The servicemen declared insubordination to the authorities, but then agreed to surrender. According to the official version, a group of officers planned to lead troops to the capital and carry out a coup. The opposition, for its part, argued that the events in Mukhrovani were organized by the authorities, who wanted to divert public attention from the rallies held at that time in Tbilisi. Some other people are on the list. Parliament undertook to “as soon as possible” ensure the release of persons on the list from criminal responsibility or, as a last resort, “provide mechanisms so that they can use a fair court”).
Yet the recent arrests have caused serious concern in Washington. Senator Joe Lieberman said "The Daily Beast"that he is proud of how Saakashvili reacted to his defeat in the elections, but worries about how Ivanishvili behaves after the victory. “These last steps inspire a very big fear, and I hope that the new parliamentary majority will hand it back because this is not what the public wants ...”
Joe Lieberman, of course, is not a great connoisseur of Georgian public opinion, whose opinion should be considered valuable. If he, like Mr. McCain, as well as the analyst Lake, knew what the Georgian public wants, they would cry. The analyst would have sobbed so directly: for the price would be clearly expressed to all his analyzes. By the way, the last poll of Georgians was conducted by an American agency.
Ii. What do Georgians want
Nestan Charkviani ("Voice of America") spoke about the results of a survey conducted by the International Republican Institute (IRI) (American non-profit organization aimed at the development of political parties, civil society, free and fair elections).
It turned out something unpleasant for America - a democratic country, and if you listen to the above opinion of Mr. E. Lake, who does not accept the Russian "dictatorship" in the post-Soviet space, which includes Georgia.
The fact is that 83% of the residents of this very Georgia who participated in the survey fully support the dialogue with Russia. And only some small, insignificant percentages oppose the dialogue with the “dictator”: 11% partially support the resumption of the Russian-Georgian dialogue, 2% partially against it, 2% strongly oppose the dialogue, and 2% could not answer.
That is categorical opponents - only two percent.
The survey was conducted from 9 to 21 in November throughout Georgia, and 1500 adult citizens participated in it.
More than half of the respondents - 52% - expressed confidence that with the new government, Georgia would be able to improve relations with Russia, and another 34% believed in partial improvement of Russian-Georgian relations under the Ivanishvili government.
As for the democrats' favorite question of aggression in Russia, 23% of respondents said they did not expect a repeat of aggression from Russia, and 19% believed that the aggression was over, although they did not rule out its resumption. 47% of respondents are convinced that Russian aggression continues. 11% could not answer this question.
Mikheil Saakashvili declares that the population of Georgia will never want to again be under the influence of Russia. The country has experienced democratic processes, and the Georgian people appreciated the advantages of the democratic development of the state: “Georgia will not return back to the influence of Russia, because the people have already felt the taste of success, democracy, the process of change of power by democratic means, and this is what is called the European beginning. The people will not refuse from this development. Our policy is long-term development, peace and opportunities for all the inhabitants of the region. ”
According to the IRI study, 63% of respondents believe that Georgia is on the right path, 12% disagree. 25% did not decide on the answer.
As for the trust in state institutions, according to the IRI poll, the Georgian Orthodox Church holds the leading position (94% of answers). The Georgian army ranks second in public trust - 91%. The police trust 84% of respondents, then the parliament (82%), the government of Georgia (81%), the media (77%), the prosecutor's office (61%). According to the IRI November survey, the degree of trust in the presidential administration’s 48% dropped significantly, whereas in July, according to a similar study, the President was trusted by 69% of respondents.
At the same time, the majority of the population of Georgia still supports the country's entry into NATO. Integration of Georgia into the North Atlantic Alliance is fully supported by 65% of respondents, partially supported by 17%, partially opposed by 4%, and strongly opposed by 5%. 9% of respondents did not decide on the answer.
The IRI survey also showed that 92% of the population of Georgia is generally optimistic, 6% is neutral, and only 1% of respondents were pessimists.
92% are probably the people who advocate a dialogue with Russia. And those who expressed confidence in the survey that with the new government, Georgia would be able to improve relations with Russia - at least in part.
Iii. Comrade Lavrov's Expectations
The fact that Moscow expects concrete proposals from Tbilisi to normalize relations between Russia and Georgia, сказал on Tuesday last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
“The new authorities say they want to normalize relations with Russia,” Lavrov said. - We heard about it, actually, from the media. We want to understand exactly how they are going to do it. ”
As we see, the authorities of Georgia and the authorities of Russia, unlike Mr. Lake and Senator McCain, react correctly to the Georgian public sentiment, which was confirmed by a recent American poll. Only Georgia, as always, is late with specifics.
In addition, there will always be a weak link in the Georgian foreign policy designed in relation to Russia: South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The Georgian government continues to declare these territories as its own, although the overwhelming majority of them do not want to be Georgian citizens on passports.
Therefore, Comrade Lavrov stressed that "the statements of Georgia that South Ossetia and Abkhazia are occupied territories, do not contribute to the beginning of its dialogue with Russia without preliminary conditions." The minister also reminded that Russia was not the initiator of the breakdown of diplomatic relations: “There are no problems for us. The main thing is that we understand the context in which this (the resumption of dialogue) takes place. ”
If something moves in the relations of the two countries, it is due to the economic interests of Georgia. Nobody hides the importance of trade with Russia for Georgia. And as a billionaire Bizin is best known.
More than a month ago, Ivanishvili announced the appointment of a diplomat Zurab Abashidze as an emissary in Russia. “The situation is quite difficult, there was a senseless war, but many Georgians live and work in Russia,” B. Ivanishvili said. “I hope we will soon be able to return our agricultural products to Russia.”
Here is the key to dialogue. The Turks are great trade with the Iranians, changing the gold for oil, and at the same time raising their gold mining industry - and are not afraid of the shouts of Washington. Is Ivanishvili really unable to make the Georgians take oranges to Russia?
Comrade Lavrov, by the way, recently received a response from the Georgian side. Commenting on his statements, the State Minister of Georgia Paata Zakareishvili made a statement. According to him, Georgia did not set Russia no preconditions for the settlement of relations. He said: “Georgia has passed a law on the occupied territories and this is Georgia’s policy. Maybe the law repeal? It is excluded! I do not remember that the Georgian authorities stated in connection with the settlement of relations with Russia that we are talking with Russia with the position that it occupied territories. Russia, represented by Medvedev, said that the Georgians should take into account the reality that arose in recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Zurab Abashidze replied that preconditions are not the best form for restoring relations. I believe that the Georgian side did not set any conditions, and why Lavrov suddenly began to point out rhetoric, I don’t know. ”
Earlier, on November 21, Bidzina Ivanishvili stated that he was not going to visit Russia - precisely because of the position of the Russian Federation on Abkhazia and South Ossetia: "My visit to Russia will not take place for an elementary reason - as long as Russia has embassies in Abkhazia and Ossetia" .
So here the foreign policy line of Saakashvili continues. The position of the current government of Georgia on the “occupied territories” is what connects Ivanishvili and Saakashvili. And this is what pleases Mr. McCain and other Misters from Washington.
December 5 Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Defense of Georgia Irakli Alasania gave an interview to 9 TV channel, where he said that Russia's position on Abkhazia and South Ossetia is counterproductive for itself (that is, for Russia). Moreover, in his opinion, Russia lost the struggle for the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This is not enough: Georgia has managed to develop a foreign policy in which Russia finds itself or is about to be cornered. Georgian Minister of Defense said: “We want to drive Russia into a corner so that it has to respond positively to our positive steps, and ignoring them would negatively affect its image.” He added that "the world will not agree with the situation created by Russia after the 2008 war of the year, and sooner or later Russia will have to fulfill its obligations to this effect."
As for the normalization of relations and dialogue with Russia, oranges are oranges, wines, wines, and national interests are ahead of everything: “Our task is to normalize relations with Russia, but not at the expense of our national interests. Reality, and the whole world recognizes this, that Russia has occupied a part of the territory of Georgia. ”
In general, and things are there.
Iv. What are some Georgians afraid of?
A) Revival of the USSR.
Yes, other Georgians fear the very “dictatorship” that the educated Americans in the field of democracy sing about. And the Russians will oppress the Georgians together with the Ukrainians. Friendship of peoples, brotherly bonds, can not be helped. Russia will drag Ukraine into the Customs Union, and that’s it, Georgia’s cover.
The international expert Tornike Sharashenidze thinks that way. If the Kremlin succeeds in introducing Ukraine into the Customs Union, there is a danger of the restoration of the Soviet Union. And this will further increase the pressure on Georgia, believes analyst.
“If Russia succeeds in introducing Ukraine into the Customs Union, we can assume that Russia has practically restored the Soviet Union - at least economically. The only ones who are not within the sphere of influence of Russia and do not submit to it are Georgia and Azerbaijan. ”
Panic in Sharashenidze caused recent words of Yanukovych. On December 5, the President of Ukraine, having met with the President of Russia in Ashgabat at the CIS Summit, said that Ukraine should join some of the provisions of the Customs Union. Comrade Yanukovych advocated for the very economy that Georgia should take care of: “We understand well, if we don’t find tools for cooperation with the Customs Union, we will lose a lot. That today it is unacceptable for the economy of Ukraine. ”
Georgia, obviously, considers it unacceptable not to lose. Sharashenidze even spreads his anxiety to Azerbaijan. According to him, if Russia returns Georgia to the sphere of influence, then “Azerbaijan will automatically follow. After all, he goes to the West mainly through Georgian territory. ” “So after that, we will have a stronger blow,” says the expert.
B) Bad will of Moscow.
If Tbilisi shows good will, пишет Sergi Kapanadze, the ex-deputy head of the Foreign Ministry of Georgia, then “only a thirst for more is visible from Moscow”. The analyst adds: "I remember the Russian style described by Western diplomats:" What is mine is mine, that yours can be negotiated. "
Now, according to Kapanadze, Moscow is simply waiting for Georgia to give way. "The Kremlin, in the traditional Russian style, is waiting for what else you can get for just starting a dialogue."
“Russia will certainly want Georgia to change the law“ On occupation ”, recognized that Russia is not an occupier, Abkhazia and South Ossetia were recognized as parties to the conflict, Georgia stopped active non-recognition policy, suspended activity in support of refugees in the UN and international organizations, opened the railway the line with Russia, and in general, took steps indicating that Georgia stops the "war" with Russia in defense of the country's sovereignty in the international arena. And this “war”, imagine, lasts almost four years after the August war. ”
A compromise here, the author says, is impossible.
But this is not enough for Moscow. She wants Georgia to slow down integration into NATO and the European Union. The analyst hopes that "the new government will not do this." However, if she does, then, “presumably, in four years she will have to move to the opposition, since the population of Georgia probably will not support a change in the pro-Western course instead of ephemeral Moscow promises”.
And Russia, the expert continues, wishes to resolve a number of minor issues:
“... the change of the name of the Ministry of Reintegration, the restoration of Russian channels in Georgian television space (which is already taking place step by step), symbolic steps, including the re-branding of the occupation museum and PIK channel, the release of arrested Russian citizens (including those suspected of espionage), the replacement of charter regular flights, and so on. The Georgian authorities, probably, can make concessions in these issues, but they should not be one-sided. It is necessary to determine what can be received in return, and how much the exchange will be worth. ”
What can Georgia bargain for in anticipation of unkind Russia?
First, the abolition of visas for citizens of Georgia. Secondly, the commitment of non-use of force against Georgia. Third, the suspension of recognition policy.
On the cola bast, start over.
B) Comrade Onishchenko.
As for the economy of Georgia, it is, of course, important, Kapanadze said, but he "is not sure that this step in the medium term will be as beneficial for the country's economy as the Georgian authorities consider."
“For small and medium-sized entrepreneurs, it is really important to enter the Russian market, and large exporters now feel pretty good in European and other neighboring markets, or already enter the Russian market through Belarus and Ukraine. Full reorientation of large exporters to the Russian market for the country's economy can be good in a short period, but, presumably, can lead to disastrous results if Onishchenko orders again to ban trade. ”
So, this is another Georgian fear. The appearance of Comrade Onishchenko. Well, reproach is fair - Onishchenko is a separately calculated risk factor in a business with Russia.
“It’s hard to imagine that the Georgian authorities do not understand this danger, especially since if our example is not enough, there is a recent political ban on trade with Moldova, Ukraine and Belarus, not to mention anything about“ prohibiting ”Onishchenko the entry of citizens from Tajikistan.”
What to do? The analyst sees no way out except for the “status-neutral approach.” This “way out” can be called a hopeless situation. Kapanadze writes:
“... This means that Georgia will continue actions related to the legitimization of the occupation, and Russia will seek recognition. Tskhinvali and Sukhumi will continue to strive for their “independence”, and Georgia - to work towards the restoration of territorial integrity.
Preservation of neutrality to status does not mean that we approve of all this and refuse territorial integrity: it only means that we "agreed that we could not agree." And after that, we should agree with Moscow, as well as with Tskhinvali and Sukhumi, that the confrontation linked with status should not affect relations between nations. Only after that we will be able to restore these relations, educational and trade relations. ”
Preservation of neutrality to status does not mean that we approve of all this and refuse territorial integrity: it only means that we "agreed that we could not agree." And after that, we should agree with Moscow, as well as with Tskhinvali and Sukhumi, that the confrontation linked with status should not affect relations between nations. Only after that we will be able to restore these relations, educational and trade relations. ”
It is clear that the conflict will not resolve such a “hopelessness”.
“No, they will not settle, but if all this is done correctly, they will turn the conflict into irrelevant. And irrelevant conflict is better than unresolved. ”
And the analyst fears that Russia will “hit” again on all that Georgia has achieved after 2008: “... on the Geneva talks, the WTO agreement, the EU observation mission, on the role of the EU mediation, the OSCE and the UN, and in general, our international support. "
In general, Russia, which seems to be an expert in the gloomy image of Comrade Onishchenko, with an unpleasant facial expression looking at a bottle of Saperavi, is far from the image of an ideal Georgian friend.
* * *
Thus, while Washington is looking gloomily at the new Georgian democracy, this very democracy is looking glumly at Russia. While Comrade Lavrov is waiting for answers from the new government of Georgia, some Georgians publicly voice their fears to their neighbor, who is known in the United States as a “dictator”. They are also afraid of the imminent revival of the USSR, for which Putin and Yanukovich, and the chief sanitary doctor of Russia, are about to speak, and that Moscow is only thinking about how to get more by harming non-brotherly Georgia and distancing it from its cherished dream of joining to nato. After all, where Moscow is approaching, NATO immediately moves away. As for wines and oranges, other Georgian experts hint that drinks and fruits can at any moment be a flexible political tool in the hands of an unpredictable Russian man named Onishchenko.
Observed and translated by Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru
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