The disturbing sound of silence... Again about the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
More and more often the press raises the question of why our Aerospace Forces do not strike at the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on various sectors of the front. For me personally, it is completely clear that those who put the question in this way are most often from the “winners”, i.e. those who have already defeated the Armed Forces of Ukraine, prevented the onset of crests and now decide which city we will take first.
And everything is “wrapped” beautifully. The Russian Aerospace Forces do not strike at units and subunits of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the LBS simply because Ukrainian soldiers are hiding in cities.
And for humanitarian reasons we are forced to use precision bombs and missiles. Which significantly reduces the effect of the bombings.
The same units and subunits of the Ukrainian Armed Forces that are on the LBS, we keep our artillerymen under fire control. This is precisely what explains the fact that, in general, no serious actions are taking place on the line of contact.
The parties locally carry out tactical operations, most often aimed at capturing some kind of defensive midfielder or some positions. Alas, but in many respects this opinion is based on the feelings and experience of previous battles. It's clear.
Everyone knows about Mariupol or Bakhmut. That's where the opinion comes from. There are no moral boundaries for crests, which means they will act the same way in other areas. Only here such an opinion is not friendly with logic. We are talking about the offensive, but we mean defense.
But those brigades that were prepared for the offensive have not gone away. They are there and ready to attack. And they are not sitting in warm and comfortable "winter apartments", but in the immediate rear of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Literally in one transition from LBS.
And they are located according to all the rules of military science. They are dispersed, not concentrated in some places. Yes, some units are located in populated areas, but this is only part of the main forces.
Why don't we bomb future "offensives"?
Any gunner or pilot knows that there are different types of targets. Accordingly, various ammunition is used to destroy such targets. If you carefully read the reports from the RF Ministry of Defense, you will notice an almost traditional phrase - “we struck with high-precision weapons».
We know perfectly well where and how many Ukrainian troops are today. For example, the strength of the group in the Bakhmut direction is about 80 thousand people. At the same time, there were only 40 thousand people in Zaporozhye.
We also know about other directions that are conditionally related to us. Again, for example, in Transnistrian. So the goals, if there is a need and the opportunity to beat them, are enough. But there is one very important issue.
Those who have read our material on the first stage of a strategic offensive know that the main task of this stage is to identify weak points in the enemy's defense and break through in this particular place. Alas, for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, this task was not completed. Moreover, the enemy "exchanged" the fortified area in the city of Bakhmut for several kilometers of fields. In other places, the Armed Forces of Ukraine were forced to crawl back to their previously occupied positions.
So, today it is doubtful that the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has made a final decision on the place where the offensive will begin. Even despite Zelensky’s statement. The fact that in the spring of this year Ukrainians It is clear that they intended to repeat the option that had already been used last fall.
Several strikes from different directions, a panic transfer of Russian units to the "main direction" and a blow in another place. It didn't grow. The nerves of our generals were strong.
Let's get back to goals.
Precision weapons are used to destroy point targets. Such targets are warehouses, locations of military units, military factories and repair shops, bridges, railway junctions, and so on. What are we doing today. Reducing the possibilities of logistics and additional build-up of forces in some areas.
At the same time, those who carefully read war correspondents from the SVO zone have noticed other messages that sometimes slip through there. Something like: “Ukrainian units preparing to attack were spotted in time by our intelligence and destroyed by strikes artillery и aviation"...
Those who "can read" are well aware that these are the same strikes against a different type of targets. By areas, by area targets, which are accumulations of enemy manpower and equipment.
This is not humanism, although you can talk about it, this is the usual law of war. Destruction of the enemy "in the field" requires much less effort and resources than destruction in populated areas ...
This option is also not newly invented. This is already forgotten by many "yesterday". Our troops acted in much the same way during the withdrawal from Kherson. The Armed Forces of Ukraine act in much the same way when moving away from their defensive midfielders in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Roads are pre-mined and targeted. And then the artillery works very effectively.
What's next?
Once again I write the same thing. The war machine, once it is running, is almost impossible to stop. There will be a Ukrainian offensive. And the silence that many complain about is actually far from silence. This is the time when the fiercest battles are going on in separate sections of the LBS. I repeat, fierce fighting!
The intelligence of both sides is working in full. Saboteurs too. Shooting and tank units conduct reconnaissance in combat constantly. In the same Kherson direction, a huge number of boats are concentrated for the quick crossing of armored vehicles to the left bank. Figuratively speaking, as they write in the credits of movies - "disturbing music sounds."
Again, I repeat, I believe that the main blow will be delivered precisely in the south. Not where the bulk of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is now located, but where the distances are shorter and the possibilities for quickly replenishing the attackers with manpower and weapons are higher. The coast provides such an opportunity. Even though the Black Sea fleet Russia will try to block this logistical route. Ukraine has long had quite effective anti-ship missiles.
The question arises as to how far the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to advance?
I don't have an exact answer. There are too many components that do not help, but rather interfere with the analysis. Yes, it doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things.
LBS in any war is not a constant, but a constantly changing value. Such changes are characteristic of SVO in general. Again, thanks to Mariupol and Bakhmut. One hundred meters there, one hundred meters here...
I have a completely new feeling. By the way, I feel about the same feelings in interviews with the participants of the NWO. Although many of them cannot yet formulate it. This is the same desire to move forward that arises before an offensive. When the legs itch, the eyes look into the distance when the body wants a fight.
Preparing for defense, we plan to attack! Moreover, to attack in such a way that by the end of the summer campaign to free most of the Left Bank. There are prerequisites for this. It remains to maintain the potential of the army. Preserve personnel and weapons during defensive battles.
The actions of the same musicians and other units, which became famous precisely as assault ones, are pushing me to the same thought. Using attack aircraft for defense is extremely wasteful, let them rest and “lick their wounds”.
People are stronger than metal, but still the possibilities of people are limited. But then, when the time comes to move forward, these people will be very useful. It is those who know how to take cities that will be needed ...
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