Everyone needs a break. We will come later
Well, the fanfare about the liberation of Artemovsk has ceased. The most radical couch patriots celebrated the victory in the NWO. Less radical - victory in the battle, which was compared with Stalingrad.
The fighters are busy with the usual work of cleaning up the city and demining the territory. The "funerals" are pulling out the corpses of the fighters from the rubble... The usual work in such cases is going on to restore elementary order in the liberated territories.
The enemy, also habitually, lies about the fact that Bakhmut is already practically surrounded and, again, according to the already traditional scheme of dill propaganda, that the Russians will allegedly soon run away from this city, as they once did from Kherson.
Even that predictable "offensive" of Ukrainians on the border regions of Russia has already taken place. Again, the Ukrainians did not come up with any zest. We used a method that has already been tested previously. Even the performers are the same.
The suicide bombers were assigned traitors to the Motherland, from among our former citizens, who simply have nowhere to go. From the very beginning of this adventure, it was clear that none of this DRG would be released. Which is basically what happened. At the time of writing, there were unofficial reports of the destruction of 39 and the capture of 4 saboteurs.
Only one event that was announced by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, did not take place. I also held this point of view. The liberation of Artemovsk releases significant forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Yes, and those 6 brigades that were intended for the offensive still exist.
I will express a seditious thought about the reason for the inaction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Alas, the very problem of the role of the individual in stories. Khokhols really lack the determination and quick decisions of General Zaluzhny. I am more and more inclined to the version that Zaluzhny is really seriously wounded. At least I would like to believe it.
Bakhmut disappeared, Artemovsk returned, what's next?
Indeed, what's next. Who and where will attack? And will there be at all?
These questions are of interest to many today. And again, the most radical ones are already "advancing on Kharkov." Less radical - "liberate the territory of the DPR and LPR." And pessimists consider the remnants of Russian units that will be able to attack at all. Exactly the same situation on the other side.
But I'll start with something else. From why the battle for Bakhmut became so epic. Why have we been messing around with this city for so long.
Yes, Bakhmut is the key to a fairly powerful fortified area, which includes Kramatorsk, Slavyansk and Avdeevka. It was necessary to take it. But why so long?
Yesterday I saw a commemorative medal of the Wagner PMC with the interesting name "Bakhmut Meat Grinder". I think this modestly decorated, in the style of awards for the capture of cities in the Great Patriotic War, the medal will be another award that will be proud of. The reverse side of this medal contains the answer to all questions. Direct text.
It was impossible to take Bakhmut in any other way than by storm. Therefore, it was decided by the leadership of the PMC and General Surovikin to use assault units. Start the same "meat grinder". Therefore, the period for which the operation was carried out should be considered not in days and months, but ... in the losses of the enemy.
And these losses are calculated in quite serious numbers. The total losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, according to various sources, range from 130 to 150 thousand people. Of these, irretrievable from 45 to 57 thousand people. The loss of equipment and weapons is also impressive. alone tanks over 100 destroyed...
It is clear that musicians also suffered losses in the battles for the city. The musicians are exhausted physically and psychologically. Both we and the enemy are well aware of this. Subdivisions must be withdrawn to the second echelon for rest and replenishment of personnel, equipment and weapons. Hence Prigogine's statement.
But it is rather problematic to withdraw all at once and replace them with units of the Russian army. We have repeatedly seen how the Armed Forces of Ukraine push through the defense of newly arrived units and subunits on the flanks of PMCs. And how effective is the assistance to these parts of the Wagner attack aircraft.
Hence the original task for Artemovsk. The gradual replacement of units and the creation of effective defensive lines in the event of a counteroffensive by crests. By the way, it is precisely the fact that the “steel guys from the orchestra” will soon leave that Ukrainian propagandists are pressing today. At first, the musicians will allegedly leave, and then the troops will flee under the blows of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Thus, the idea of developing an offensive from this direction "on the shoulders of the enemy" is utopian from the very beginning. At the same time, local offensives in certain areas are quite possible and, I think, will be carried out. For example, why not take away Konstantinovka and Druzhkovka from crests? Then we go directly to Kramatorsk and Slavyansk.
It seems to me that active actions of a serious scale on our part should not be expected in the near future. It is difficult to liberate the city, but it is even more difficult to keep it. Attacks on unprepared positions by fresh brigades are quite likely. Not even the five I mentioned above.
At the disposal of the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine there are also fresh brigades of the defense. And this is at least five brigades. You can use them not only under Bakhmut. Probably, the area of Kremennaya and Popasnaya is more promising in this respect.
If Kyiv has not abandoned the idea of terrorizing Russia's border regions, and there are no such data yet, then this is an ideal place to intensify hostilities. The border is near, if you want to step there, if you want to send a DRG. Yes, and brilliant green allows you to well mask equipment and weapons.
So will there be an attack or not?
This question remains unanswered. From Kyiv, the "offensive machine" is launched. I wrote about this many times. But the competent work of the VKS artillery significantly reduced the offensive potential and logistics capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Today it is foolish to count on a rapid replenishment of formations participating in the offensive.
Paradox. It is impossible to stop the preparation of the offensive and it is impossible to attack. At the same time, it is impossible not to attack. The West demands victories, and if there are none, aid will be reduced to a minimum. This is such a difficult task facing Ukraine.
A global strategic offensive that would radically change the nature of the war in favor of Ukraine should not be expected. There will be operations in small areas of the LBS of a tactical nature. The situation can be changed by the rapid delivery of aircraft for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Bye Russian aviation dominates the air, any offensive will turn into a "meat grinder".
Alas, such a decision, based on current statements and events, will be made soon. I do not presume to predict how much NATO aircraft will reduce the efficiency of our aviation, and this will certainly happen in the initial period of use, but they will not have a significant impact on the overall picture. There are also rockets...
In general, today it is not worth talking about the offensive of one side or another. The forces and means that both sides have are simply not enough for a more or less long offensive. What is sufficient for defense is by no means sufficient for attack.
If the task is set to force Ukraine into peace negotiations as soon as possible, we will have to use fresh connections. And this means that at the moment, taking into account many components, those who will advance on the Left-Bank Ukraine are still on the territory of Russia. In the Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk regions ...
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