Military Review

China: everywhere first

49
China could not stop its “locomotive” even if it wanted to. Today the Celestial Empire pulls almost the entire global economy behind it. Bad world economy - bad and China. Good for the world economy - China is getting better and stronger. But whose addiction is more? It appears that the world economy. In the trade rating of China and the United States exchanged places over the last six years. Today, China is the leading trading partner of 127 countries (for comparison: the United States is the main partner of 76 countries). China is ahead of the United States in the markets of their strong allies, such as Australia and South Korea. Where the US is retreating, China is pushing hard.



I. China and the USA

If in 2010, US officials dared to instruct the Chinese about the course of the yuan against the dollar they need to set, now Washington, we can say, is silent. One can talk endlessly about American values ​​or the triumph of democratic ideals, but one cannot convince a strong and growing state that it is pursuing an incompletely adequate monetary policy. As they say, first deal with your own crisis, and then begin to teach those who succeed.

Six months ago, Washington’s last sluggish call to strengthen the yuan was heard:

"Despite the measures taken by Beijing, the Chinese currency, the yuan, remains significantly undervalued (against the US dollar)," phrase from the report of the US Treasury on the monetary policy of the United States trading partners.


However, the authors of the report abstained from any accusations of the PRC in currency manipulations or something similar. By the way, during the recent election debates both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney publicly declared their intention to call the government of the Middle Kingdom to account for currency manipulations, and at the same time dumping. It seems that this is nothing more than election rhetoric. They shouted - and forgot, and the Ministry of Finance had surrendered before. In short, Americans are not Chinese decree.

Again: it is impossible to convince a strong state that it pursues an incompletely adequate monetary policy. It is pursuing the line that is beneficial to it, and China’s position on the world market is such that the United States can only envy this country. A relatively weak yuan is the basis of a profitable economy for the exporting country, and this need not be explained. In the same way, a weak ruble is beneficial for Russian oil and gas industry workers: more rubles for one dollar for which mineral raw materials are traded.

In the latest OECD report, “A look at 2060 year: long-term growth prospects” было отменено among other things, that by 2060, the share of China and India in world GDP will surpass all the 34 countries that are members of the OECD (the total weight of the two countries mentioned is now just over a third). China will overtake the European Union by the end of this year, and 4 will become the world's largest economy a year later.

Moreover, the status of the world economic leader of China will retain up to 2020 year. Further forward, India and Indonesia can break out (reason: a decrease in the working-age population in China). According to the OECD forecast, by 2060, the coefficient of the demographic load in China (the ratio of the elderly and the working-age population) will increase fourfold. China now benefits from strong productivity growth and large investments in the past ten years.

According to experts, by 2025, the aggregate GDP of China and India will exceed the total economies of the G7 countries, and by 2060, the economies of the two countries taken together will be one and a half times larger than the G7 economies.

As for China’s per capita income, by 2060 it will be 25% higher than the current equivalent in the United States.

At the CPC congress, it was said that the Chinese economy would keep from recession, measures will be takenensuring sustainable development of the economy, in particular, measures to increase domestic consumption, increase incomes of the population, control inflation and restructure investments.

Also at the party congress Hu Jintao presented rather ambitious plan for the development of the motherland. Among other things, it says about the planned doubling of per capita income by 2020 year. Such a goal reflects China’s attitude towards achieving a high standard of living, similar to the Western one, and at the same time reducing social tensions. In solving these problems, not only will higher incomes be provided for the population, but also domestic demand will grow, which the PRC lacks. At the same time, it becomes obvious that the ambitious goal for China, in addition to economic recovery, is also a challenge - financially, economically, and politically - to Western domination of the planet.

Xi Jinping said that China will compensate for the fall in exports to developed countries by expanding trade on the Asian continent: after all, there is still some economic dynamics.

As for the prospects of the Chinese currency, they are the most optimistic. The yuan will soon become part of a new regional financial architecture, and opportunities will be found for the yuan to become an international reserve currency.

That's it.

In this situation, the United States and Western Europe will not even be able to breathe China in the back of the head. At best, the United States or Germany, if it does not become the center of the EU, will have to catch up with India.

The US government is well aware that in the crisis conditions of competitive struggle, American manufacturers lose to Chinese. This is despite the fact that a significant part of American (and European) industries have long been relocated to the Middle Kingdom - for the sake of profits. That is, the economic recession in the US and the EU is also explained by the man-made factor of strangling one's own economy, put into the hands of a competitor for short-term profits, outside of strategic long-term planning. For that fought for it and ran.

American and European strategists could not imagine that semi-hand-made manufacturers of plastic toys and workers of assembly plants would achieve such success. Today, almost the entire world market is focused on China. The Celestial Empire imports oil and ore from Africa, Asia and Latin America, which at the same time raises the economies of exporting countries that are already firmly hooked on the PRC. China factories consume half of the iron ore mined in the world. China has become the largest exporter of steel. Zambia and Chile, the largest producers of copper, and Australia, a leading exporter of coal and iron ore, are working closely with the Chinese. Previously, the priority for these countries was a partnership with the United States. China "pushed" America and the markets of Malaysia and South Korea: there he orders the components for their high-tech industries. Samsung, Nokia, and Apple Apple are assembling their high-tech gizmos in the Middle Kingdom.

The United States is in the first place in the world economy, while China is in the second. Washington is not going to take positions, and China is not going to stop its “locomotive” flying at full steam.

Some increase in tensions in the relations between the United States and the People's Republic of China is associated with the adoption of a strategic document in Washington earlier this year: “Sustaining US Global Leadership: Priorities for 21 Century Defense”. This strategy states that the strengthening of the PRC in the long term may affect the economy and security of the United States. The key points in the adopted US military strategy are reduced to a reduction in the number of American armed forces while simultaneously concentrating budget resources on the development of satellites and unmanned aircraft. The strategy also implies a reorientation of resources to the APR.

Obama starts and wins - that's the plan for the White House. The Chinese, of course, cannot agree with this. They cannot retreat from development plans either.

No, it's not about the war between China and the States. It's about competition and regional influence. Now, experts say, the struggle is for the ownership of the rights to energy resources. Analysts say they write that weapons China and the United States in the struggle for markets in the coming years will be oil and gas. The “Arab Spring” in Africa was provoked by the United States just to deprive China of sources of mineral raw materials (first of all, its supplies from Libya and Sudan — in the latter, China was fixed for a long time, and the split of the country into two warring Sudan deprived China of oil supplies for almost a year ). Iran is also a link in a single strategic chain: after all, China is a buyer of Iranian oil. It closes all this specified strategic document, according to which the US Navy is gradually located on the main routes of China transportation of oil from Venezuela, Nigeria, Sudan and Middle Eastern countries.

Political scientist Mikhail Khazin says:

“Most likely, the world will fall into currency zones. Victory or defeat will be determined by only one: who will have this zone more - the United States or China. This question cannot be answered yet. This fight for the world markets from the plane of struggle in the same markets will be transferred to another plane - the currency one. This will be the most interesting thing in global geopolitics and economics in the coming 3-5 years. ”


The above OECD forecast tells us who will emerge victorious in the world race for resources, and whose currency can initially push aside and then completely suppress the American dollar. Four years left before the jump of the “tiger” to the first place, according to the OECD, just in the middle between three and five years, about which comrade Khazin spoke. That is, in 2016, China will become the leader of the world economy, pushing the US to 2-place.

Ii. China and Russia

5 December ended The ninth round of negotiations “Energy Dialogue: Russia - China” with the participation of the Russian electricity exporter in the Far East - Eastern Energy Company (EEC) - and the State Grid Corporation of the People's Republic of China.

By the end of the year, WEC pledged to deliver 2,6 billion kilowatt-hours to China, and in 2013, the company plans to increase exports to 3 billion kilowatt-hours. Moscow and Beijing have decided on the price of electricity, but so far there is no information about it. Moreover, the parties will clarify further and the volume of electricity exports - most likely, it will be about their further increase.

After the signing ceremony, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Dvorkovich said that over the nine months of 2012, the EEC increased the supply of electricity to China to 1,8 billion kilowatt-hours, which is almost twice as much as the 2011 period.

In addition, at the 5 negotiations in December, a “road map” on the development of cooperation in the coal sector was signed. A cooperation agreement was also drawn up to assess the energy market conditions.

Chinese firms are very interested in participating in the competition for the Gerbekan-Ogodzhinsky coal-bearing region of the Amur Region. The competition this Russian government plans to hold in 2013 year.

Continued and negotiations between Gazprom and the Chinese company CNPC regarding the price of Russian gas supplies to China. Previously, the parties agreed in principle the volume of gas supplies along two routes: the western - 30 billion cubic meters. m (project "Altai") and East - 38 billion cubic meters. The construction of the Altai gas pipeline starts after the conclusion of a gas purchase and sale contract with the Chinese side.

In addition, 5 December was discussed and the possibility of joint construction of nuclear power plants in third countries.

“We are well aware of what is happening now in our cooperation in the nuclear field, and, from our point of view, the potential is enormous here,” said Comrade Dvorkovich. - The Chinese side is raising the issue of expanding cooperation, including the construction of nuclear power units in third countries. We are considering such proposals. ”


The countries in whose territory such projects can be implemented have not yet been named. It was only about plans for joint cooperation.

In addition, at a meeting on Wednesday, the parties signed a protocol on the construction of the second stage of the Tianwan NPP. Construction will begin this month.

“And this opens the way to expand cooperation and begin consultations on the design and construction of new nuclear power plants,” said Dvorkovich.


The General Contract for the construction of the second stage of the Tianwan NPP Atomstroyexport CJSC and the Jianssu Nuclear Power Corporation (JNPC) signed in November 2012 of the year in St. Petersburg.

“Obtaining such a contract strengthens Russia's position in the global atomic energy market, as a country capable of implementing projects of any complexity, while complying with all modern safety requirements. After all, now Tianwan NPP is considered one of the safest stations in China. It is expected that the agreement on the construction of the second stage will be a larger contract. Now its amount is estimated at about 4 billion euros, but the final figure will depend on the specific volumes of obligations of the parties, which will be fixed in the agreement "- считает economic analyst Lilia Brueva.


Also on December 5, the Russian side handed over to the Chinese partners a draft intergovernmental agreement on the construction of the Tientsin refinery for consideration.

Deputy Chairman of the PRC Government at the negotiations сказалthat joint projects on cooperation in the field of coal supplies are also well implemented. By the end of the current year, the volume of coal supplies by Russia to the PRC could amount to 18 mln. Tons, including 3 mln. Tons - by rail, the rest - through seaports.

The Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov focuses on the Chinese market today, who has decided to “change” from the Middle Kingdom of the USA. If in America the value of technological assets is too high, then the Chinese market in terms of investment looks more promising. USMAN owns shares in the Chinese Internet giants Alibaba Group Holding and 360buy Jingdong Mall. Billionaire in China interested in mainly network trade.

As for the United States, there Mr. Usmanov has invested in Facebook shares, which since the initial public offering (IPO) in May of this year have fallen off by as much as 28%. You will inevitably switch to the Chinese ...

Trade between Russia and China is growing by leaps and bounds. According to Chinese customs statistics, in January-October 2012, the turnover of Russian-Chinese trade up compared to the same period last year, by 13,4% - to 73,6 billion dollars. Russian exports to China increased to 37,2 billion dollars (by 12,7%), imports from China grew to 36,4 billion dollars (by 14,1%).

The direct investments of the PRC into Russia over nine months of 2012 increased by 2011% compared to the same period of the 36 year and amounted to 266 million dollars.

China today is Russia's main trading partner. The Russian Federation ranks ninth in the list of ten major trading partners of China. In terms of commodity turnover growth, Russia ranked 5-e among the main trading partners of China - after South Africa, Vietnam, the Philippines and Hong Kong. Alas, in the Russian export, as before, commodity group goods dominate, while the share of machine-technical products is extremely small. In the import from China - the opposite situation. Here machines and equipment occupy the first place in the structure.

Iii. China and Central Asia

Ivetta Frolova, Senior Researcher, Center for Asia and the Middle East, Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, считаетthat China is becoming the new “Big Brother” for the states of Central Asia.

Over the past two decades, the countries of this region have gone from border “barter” cooperation to full-fledged partnership relations, which are based on cooperation in the energy sector and joint projects in non-primary sectors of the economy. The Chinese factor has become an integral element of regional geopolitics. To deny it or argue with it is meaningless.

Back in 2006, China became the third largest foreign trade partner of the countries of the region - after Russia and the EU. In 2000-2010 PRC investment activity in the Central Asian markets increased by 20-40% (depending on specific areas). The 10 years have come to the fore: high-tech industries, the development of mineral resources, infrastructure development, construction, agriculture, transport, power generation, and oil and gas production.

China, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan were selected as priorities for the PRC capital investment.

Central Asia today is presented to China as a “strategic rear”. In addition, Beijing takes into account the wide transit possibilities of Central Asia - routes to Europe, the Middle and Middle East, the Caucasus region. Finally, the most elementary: the Central Asian countries are an important sales market for Chinese consumer goods, and at the same time an energy supplier whose role may increase over time. The fact is that the instability of the situation in a number of regions supplying energy resources (mentioned above in the article Iran and African countries), as well as the problem of sea terrorism in Southeast Asia, forced the Chinese government to study the issue of transporting oil and gas through land trunk pipelines . This led to the increased attention of the PRC to cooperation in the energy field with Russia and the countries of Central Asia.

Bearing in mind including its own energy security, the PRC is now putting strategic emphasis on building relations with the Central Asian countries on a bilateral basis, focusing on cooperation in the fields of energy, transport and logistics, as well as trade and regional security. The primary interests of China are in the oil and gas industry of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, as well as the nuclear industry of Kazakhstan. In the field of transport, Beijing focuses on Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, and in the field of hydro-resources, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are put in the forefront.

And if Beijing regards Central Asia as a raw material rear, then the local authorities see in it a new “Big Brother”.

As for the import-export structure, it is very reminiscent of the sad Russian picture. I. Frolova writes:

“The pace of development of China’s trade with Central Asian countries is accelerating significantly. If in 1992 the foreign trade turnover was $ 527 million, in 2000 it was $ 1 billion, and by 2009 it reached $ 25,9 billion. At the same time, there is a lack of diversification of the export structure from Central Asia to China: supply Kazakhstan on 25% consists of oil, on 25% - from non-ferrous metals, another on 25% - from iron and steel. Metals make up the third part of Kyrgyz exports to China, chemical products and non-ferrous metals - 20 and 25%, respectively. As for imports from the PRC to Central Asia, 92% of the total volume is finished products. ”


In addition, China is active in creating a transport and logistics infrastructure in the region. One of the most ambitious projects in this area is the construction of the Uzbek-Kyrgyz-Chinese railway Andijan-Karasu-Torugart-Kashgar. Another area is the construction of modern highways that extend to the western borders of China. In XUAR, Beijing plans to build 12 expressways, which will link Western China with the Central Asian countries. Xinjiang will become a major transportation and energy hub, which will lead to the strengthening of China’s cooperation with the countries of Central Asia and the strengthening of Chinese influence here.

In the long term, the influence and presence of the PRC in the Central Asian region will only increase, and the Celestial Empire, whatever one may say, will push Russia out of the region. If earlier Ashkhabad purchased railway equipment in Russia, now it is in China. While in 2000, the trade turnover between the Russian Federation and the countries of Central Asia was six times higher than the volume of trade between the PRC and the region, in 2006, it was only one and a half times. As a result, Russia as a trade and economic partner may lose interest for the countries of Central Asia.

According to I. Frolova, today the main task of Russia is to preserve and, if possible, strengthen its positions in Central Asia, but without confrontation with China.

This month, the PRC became even more active in the commodity markets of Central Asia. In December, the Celestial Empire put forward the idea of ​​major investments in the countries of the region. This is a series of road, rail and energy projects, for which China is now ready to allocate a loan of $ 10 billion, which was first reported in June of this year. Projects involve a direct connection of the countries of Central Asia with Beijing.

Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao saidthat the state banks of China are ready to finance these projects, including railways from Uzbekistan through Kyrgyzstan.

Wen Jiabao said this at the SCO meeting on Wednesday, in which Russia and four Central Asian states participated. Wen Jiabao noted that he would like to speed up the construction of a railway from Uzbekistan to China, and therefore Beijing is ready to finance interested parties.

“We intend to invest this money in infrastructure, energy and production projects in order to promote the development of the real economy,” said Wen Jiabao in Bishkek.


China plans to work closely with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Over time, this will create a counterbalance to Russian expansion in the region. Nevertheless, China and Russia have a common interest in strengthening the region’s weak borders in order to prevent the movement of Taliban terrorists, which should be feared when withdrawing ISAF troops from Afghanistan.

* * *


Thus, by importing raw materials and exporting manufactured goods, China follows the strategy of highly developed countries. If Russia and the countries of Central Asia, as well as the countries of Africa or Latin America, cooperating with China, sell Celestial oil, gas, ore and valuable metals, then Beijing in return supplies consumer goods and high-tech products, and successfully competes in price with its Western counterparts. By 2016, according to forecasts of OECD experts, China can become the leading economy in the world, surpassing the United States.

Observed and translated by Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
49 comments
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  1. JackTheRipper
    JackTheRipper 10 December 2012 07: 38
    +8
    The United States is a "colossus on feet of clay" in five minutes, while Obama's cuts in defense spending and rolling around with Obama's eyes, in the spirit of: "But let the world know that if something happens, we are so strong!" - superfluous confirmation of that.
    PS The Middle East worries me more now than the strengthening of China (China at least has something to lose) - the entire BV and the North of Africa are tense - so shortly before the global fire, no matter what spread from there ...
    1. WW3
      WW3 10 December 2012 08: 15
      +2
      Quote: JackTheRipper
      so shortly before the global fire, as if something had not spread from there ...

      World War III will start sooner or later ... everyone is arming themselves ... and China especially ... for the USA it is traditionally to kindle the fire of war ...
      1. Karish
        Karish 10 December 2012 08: 27
        +4
        Quote: WW3
        World War III will start sooner or later ... everyone is arming themselves ... and China especially ... for the USA it is traditionally to kindle the fire of war ...

        Sooner or later - a cheap forecast because in 100 years - is it sooner or later? That wars bring the population of the planet and country to some balance is indisputable. The threat does not allow countries to behave as they want, but leads them to some kind of balance. And taking into account the interests of others. But there will always be someone trying to check the degree of risk between the threat and the consequences. Therefore, wars will always be. The question is whether they will grow into a world? Because The serious involvement of superpowers in armed conflict - entails the use of WMDs - but these consequences are already impossible to calculate. Therefore, the spread of WMDs around the world is a huge problem. As a result, it is easier to agree with five states with nuclear weapons than with 20.
        1. WW3
          WW3 10 December 2012 08: 32
          +4
          Quote: Karish
          ano or later - a cheap forecast because in 100 years - is it sooner or later?

          Contact astrologers for a more accurate date ... on the way to 21.12.2012 ...
          Quote: Karish
          Five states with nuclear weapons in the end easier to agree

          They have not been 5 for a long time ...
          1. Karish
            Karish 10 December 2012 08: 40
            +2
            Quote: WW3
            Contact astrologers for a more accurate date ... on the way to 21.12.2012 ...

            Well then, there’s nothing to be afraid of World War II bully

            Quote: WW3
            They have not been 5 for a long time ...

            We are talking about superpowers. Pakistan and India are a problem taking into account their population and incomprehensible ambitions in the future - but the direction of nuclear weapons against each other is obvious.
            The DPRK - if it used nuclear weapons only for protection and did not trade nuclear technologies around the world - would not be a problem.
            Israel (which has not declared itself a nuclear country), but in general everyone understands that it has it, if the danger of existence disappears, it will join the IAEA and sign a non-proliferation protocol.
            Countries like Iran are problematic in terms of the odiousness of the regime and attempts to establish hegemony in the region (of course, with constant threats to neighbors, and not just Israel)
            Mills such as South Africa, Brazil, - developed their own nuclear weapons, but realizing that often possession is an even greater threat, they refused and closed the programs.
            1. WW3
              WW3 10 December 2012 08: 56
              +3
              Quote: Karish
              Well then, there’s nothing to be afraid of World War II

              Why be afraid .... you need to prepare ...
              He is gaining strength, waiting idly
              Pointing a radar into the sky
              One mistake, random take-off
              And a blow is inevitable.

              as for reducing Russia's nuclear potential - to send everyone to hell ...
              For the first time in many years, the United States today surpasses Russia even in the number of land-based ICBMs.

              http://9e-maya.ru/forum/index.php?topic=186.0
            2. bart74
              bart74 11 December 2012 01: 56
              -3
              Yes, I agree with you.
              You are good at this topic.
              I think that countries that do not have the potential of a nuclear triad (land, water, air) and do not have enough warheads for a real mass destruction of the enemy can not be seriously considered, since if these parameters are not met, this is a deterrence weapon.
              But here we no longer have parity with NATO.
              I am generally silent about China.
              If we consider the issue in this context: / USA + England + France / --- / Russia / --- / China /, that is, three groups of the Big Five, then China can only be friends with us.
        2. Dikremnij
          Dikremnij 11 December 2012 21: 50
          0
          Indeed, I still remember from philosophy pairs that war is a way of self-regulation of the Earth's biomass, which, as you know, is const.
          1. Beck
            Beck 12 December 2012 13: 27
            +1
            Quote: Dikremnij
            Indeed, I still remember from philosophy pairs that war is a way of self-regulation of the Earth's biomass, which, as you know, is const.


            In my opinion, the problem of overpopulation of the planet and the lack of food, this is not a problem of fertility, but the problem of the lag of agricultural technologies from the rate of population growth.

            If you invent and apply technologies for growing agricultural products in the Sahara. One can forget about hunger. And there is also Siberia and the entire continent of Australia.
      2. tronin.maxim
        tronin.maxim 10 December 2012 08: 28
        +5
        Quote: WW3
        World War III will start sooner or later ... everyone is arming themselves ... and China especially ... for the USA it is traditionally to kindle the fire of war ...

        But keep in mind that times are different! The United States will now be more difficult to do its job. Given the fact that the global crisis thoroughly battered them. Other countries are clearly not stupid (including Russia), respectively, fully armed! It seems to me that the fire of war will now burn not only in various parts of the world, but also in the USA!
        1. WW3
          WW3 10 December 2012 08: 38
          +6
          Quote: tronin.maxim
          It seems to me that the fire of war will now burn not only in various parts of the world, but also in the USA!

          It’s ideal to wage war on foreign territory ... but the Amers didn’t have much flames besides a distant civil war ... but of course with the use of WMD nobody will be able to avoid this ....
          it is necessary to prepare unequivocally .... China, too, I think that it is not a special friend of Russia ...
          1. Beck
            Beck 11 December 2012 13: 50
            -1
            Most people here are sure of the inevitability of World War III. Yes it will not be. There is only some theoretical possibility of occurrence. But that’s theoretical.

            If during the Cold War, when there were fundamental, most controversial differences in the arrangement of the world, a hot war did not break out. What now, when there are no these ideological differences, it should flare up.

            And in general, wars as such leave the worldview of the obligatory in our time, much less in the future. If we take the last 50 years, then the saturation of these years with wars is several times less than at the same intervals in the past history of mankind. (all sorts of wars, not just large-scale ones). Gradually, peoples will leave the obligation of war. So after 1000 years, when humanity will populate other planets of the solar system, that a planet will fight on a planet, for example, Earth and Europe. Nonsense.

            Just some on the site do not see for themselves other ways to resolve different views on civilization, culture, morality, morality. Considering that different views, for example, on abortion, must necessarily lead to a world war.
            1. WW3
              WW3 11 December 2012 22: 52
              +1
              Quote: Beck
              Most people here are sure of the inevitability of World War III.

              There are many WW3 scenarios online. If I need to post it ... another thing would be ridiculous if there were most pacifists on the military site ... lol
              Quote: Beck
              Yes it will not be. There is only some theoretical possibility of occurrence. But that’s theoretical.

              The nuclear shield is the only thing that really holds back ... everything else about friendship with amers is the boltology of the marsh liberals ...
              Quote: Beck
              Considering that different views, for example, on abortion, must necessarily lead to a world war.

              Well, I’m saying that geyparads and other values ​​are alien ... and the demographic situation in the Russian Federation does not look the best ... what other abortions?
              1. Beck
                Beck 12 December 2012 13: 17
                0
                Quote: WW3
                A nuclear shield is the only thing that really holds back ... everything else about friendship with amers is the boltology of the marsh liberals ..


                These nuclear shields are the main thing that will prevent the unleashing of the third world war. Well, not a suicide after all, humanity. And other reasons that were under the communists - We will destroy the whole world of violence, to the foundation ...-
                aldeady no.
        2. MG42
          MG42 10 December 2012 13: 50
          +4
          Quote: tronin.maxim
          The United States will now be more difficult to do its job. Given the fact that the global crisis thoroughly battered them.

          This crisis they themselves provoked the "1st wave".
          Second cousin of former US President George W. Bush George Walker was among the top leaders of an investment bank Lehman Brotherswho ignored warnings of impending risks, which led to the largest bankruptcy in US history and provoked the current financial crisis.
          Waxman released 24 pages of internal internal communications from Lehman Brothers executives at the hearing, which he said show that the bank's chairman, Richard Fuld and others, including Walker, were "driving Lehman Brothers and our economy to the abyss."
          "These documents paint a picture of a company that had no responsibility for the failure," said the congressman. The head of the committee recalled that the collapse of Lehman Brothers on September 15 "was the largest bankruptcy in American history."
          "Many experts believe that the fall of Lehman Brothers triggered a credit freeze that stifles our economy and made it necessary to adopt a $ 700 billion bailout plan," said the congressman.
          Waxman raised the question, in particular, that the bank's management did not heed the warnings about the need to drastically reduce spending in the face of the impending crisis.

          http://obozrevatel.com/news/2008/10/6/261727.htm
    2. Lucky
      Lucky 10 December 2012 12: 10
      0
      When the article is already Russia will be first everywhere, Russian GDP is one and a half times more than G7
  2. Alexander Petrovich
    Alexander Petrovich 10 December 2012 07: 49
    +4
    And what will happen if we establish our own production and reduce the import of Chinese goods? Is this possible at all?
    1. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 10 December 2012 08: 00
      +8
      Quote: Alexander Petrovich

      And what will happen if we establish our own production and reduce the import of Chinese goods? Is this possible at all?

      Given that the NANO sector is ruled by Chubais, it is not possible hi
      China's labor force is cheaper, people are ready to work, and we are ready to make careers. Almost the same at first glance, but this is only at first. China’s internal policy towards its own citizens is a patriotic orientation, and here what and you won’t understand what.
      With regards to the United States, as soon as the Yuan becomes conventible in the region, the dollar can be wiped off.
      1. Alexander Petrovich
        Alexander Petrovich 10 December 2012 08: 09
        +2
        Well, what do you think. what Russia should undertake to get rid of the dependence of Chinese goods and establish its own production, because in fact we have enough resources for this, and there are a lot of people, even if the Russians are not cheap workers. in the end, you can hire workers from Central Asia, since they are not dumber than the Chinese, I think.
        1. Alexander Romanov
          Alexander Romanov 10 December 2012 09: 01
          +4
          Quote: Alexander Petrovich
          in the end, you can hire workers from Central Asia, since they are no more dumb than the Chinese, I think.

          Now who are they hiring? Attitude to work needs to be changed in people, that's just how to do it with that advertising of a beautiful life with TV request
          1. baltika-18
            baltika-18 10 December 2012 10: 46
            +2
            Quote: Alexander Romanov
            Attitude to work must be changed in people,

            In principle, it is true, but I will clarify. The attitude of the authorities to working people. In our leading places in popularity you know who and their respective servants. And where does this come from? And this comes first of all from the authorities, from the system of relations and economic relations created by it, both moral and political. So, as always, you need to start from the top, not from the bottom. People's attitude to work can be changed only if the priorities of internal politics change. If a locksmith gets 15-20 thousand, and an "effective" manager 500 what can we talk about.
          2. islandpan
            islandpan 10 December 2012 17: 46
            +3
            I think that you are a little wrong! it is necessary to change not the attitude to work, but the attitude to wages! the Russian man is hardworking (he will show both the Uzbeks and Tajiks how it is necessary and possible to work) but you need to pay with dignity!
      2. Karish
        Karish 10 December 2012 08: 32
        +3
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        Given that the NANO sector is ruled by Chubais, it is not possible

        Alexander - the impression is that the problem is only in NANO, nano --- it's all so laughing
        And in something larger - agriculture, mechanical engineering, medicine --- and everything else.
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        .China's internal policy towards its own citizens - a patriotic orientation

        This definition requires some confirmation - what does a patriotic orientation mean?
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        With regards to the United States, as soon as the Yuan becomes conventible in the region, the dollar can be wiped off.

        Alexander - the yuan has long been convertible.
        1. Alexander Romanov
          Alexander Romanov 10 December 2012 08: 48
          +2
          Quote: Karish
          And in something larger - agriculture, engineering, medicine --- and everything else

          there others lead, such as the Chekstnye. The Skrynnik sacked 39 billion and nothing.
          Quote: Karish
          This definition requires some confirmation.

          What kind of confirmation, go to China and see for yourself, get confirmation by the most pamper.
          Quote: Karish
          Alexander - the yuan has long been convertible.

          far from all Asian countries, what the Yuan is accepted everywhere is not a reason to talk about convectibility, when in Asia it takes the place of the dollar, then it will become really convectible.
          1. Karish
            Karish 10 December 2012 22: 21
            -1
            Quote: Alexander Romanov
            far from all Asian countries, what the Yuan is accepted everywhere is not a reason to talk about convectibility, when in Asia it takes the place of the dollar, then it will become really convectible.

            Alexander is not quite so. As an example, the Euro is convertible, but the dollar does not replace (and never replaces), by the way, like the yuan.
            And the problem is not even in the US payability, the replacement of the dollar will entail such expenses of countries holding both Dollars (in funds) and GKO, whether it is with Greece or better, like a suitcase without a handle, and it’s hard to carry and throw away
            1. bart74
              bart74 11 December 2012 02: 18
              0
              As soon as the Yuan becomes a regional currency, this will mean the country's exit from under colonial influence. There is some kind of dollars on the country if it can print paper as much as it sees fit. Ah, yes, I forgot, dollars are needed for those WHO TRADE THE BOUNDaries OF THE COUNTRY, AND BECAUSE HIDES THEIR BANKS OF ITS OWNERS for a small percentage type. So far, China is a very dependent country. Depends on the dollar, on sales markets and much more. Russia has time. I am not even afraid of the fact that the Chinese economy will be the first in the world. SO WHAT? USA NOW ALSO NOT ON THE LAST. We have different times. The main thing is that the economy is effective: the standard of living would be high, unemployment low, there would be no shortage. And in the USA, the economy is artificially inflated, of course not several times, but nonetheless. I can say this as an economist.
        2. Ascetic
          Ascetic 10 December 2012 12: 11
          +9
          Quote: Karish
          Alexander - the yuan has long been convertible.


          Again not true. convertible currency - This is a currency that is freely exchanged for the currencies of other countries (and vice versa). The issuing country does not establish any restrictions on the use of cash in its currency. The exchange rate is determined by the ratio of supply and demand in the market, direct government intervention in the exchange processes does not occur.
          According Hard currency the currency of countries that completely abolished currency restrictions on any exchange thereof both for its residents and for non-residents on its territory and around the world. Currently, the number of hard currency include US dollars and Canada, national currencies of the EU member states, Switzerland, Sweden and Japan.
          Only after the crisis of 2008 as an applicant for entering the club KV or even hard currency announced itself CNY.
          at a time when the exchange rate of the dollar and the euro was in a fever, the yuan stood rooted to the spot and even showed growth. What is not a contender for the title of a new reserve currency?
          However, on the way of the Chinese currency to full convertibility, there is still many obstacles
          Beijing has set strict currency restrictions that cover both current and capital operations. A foreign citizen is not able to buy / sell / pay in RMB whenever he wants - only by permission.
          In addition, for capital operations also Permission required from National Currency Exchange Administration. As a result, most of China's international trade occurs in dollars, euros, and other currencies.
          So far, the yuan in the form of HF or hard currency is only in plans and not in reality, despite the fact that the Chinese authorities allowed some Chinese companies to conduct international payments in national currency, then this permission spread immediately to entire countries, albeit in a limited amount. At the end of 2010, the yuan also came to Russia, when the first trading in yuan for rubles took place at the MICEX
          My webpage
      3. bart74
        bart74 11 December 2012 02: 09
        +2
        I agree that it is unrealistic for Russia to go the Chinese way. But let's say it is possible to balance the balance between export and import. It just needs political will. Not to drive a log to the West, but to arrange its processing. Not to buy consumer goods and consumer goods in China, but to establish this production here. You can list for a long time. By the example of Belarus, everything becomes clear. There is a dad, there is a will. And Belarus is not Russia, not by resources, not by capabilities. And we are one people (the same man will drink the bitter, if he * sang for money, etc.), the climate is also comparable, if not to say that depending on what to compare. In general, we have no will. Because those who have money and opportunities do not want to invest these resources in the country. And this is not Putin. Unfortunately. These are the local elite and kings. Not the bastards and scum of the early nineties. Remember at least the same Khushchevka.
        1. studentmati
          studentmati 11 December 2012 02: 30
          0
          They simply have no conscience. And the new generation of statesmen has not yet grown.
    2. Karish
      Karish 10 December 2012 08: 28
      0
      Quote: Alexander Petrovich
      And what will happen if we establish our own production and reduce the import of Chinese goods? Is this possible at all?

      Theoretically, yes wassat
      1. Alexander Petrovich
        Alexander Petrovich 10 December 2012 09: 30
        +1
        But practically ... let me guess ..
  3. Rusich
    Rusich 10 December 2012 08: 00
    +4
    Raised "BEAST" and who can only resist China! ???
    1. Engrim
      Engrim 10 December 2012 16: 20
      +1
      Rusich,
      Practically quote from John the Theologian-
      And people will ask: “Who is like this beast? and who can fight him? ” (Rev. 13: 4)
  4. Farvil
    Farvil 10 December 2012 08: 12
    +4
    And our government, coupled with officials, is destroying their country.
    1. Gluxar_
      Gluxar_ 10 December 2012 09: 21
      +3
      Quote: Karish
      Russia (as one of the options, in exchange for raw materials) since you will not pull the oil over yourself, you will not hide and you will not eat it.

      Well, Russia is capable of producing everything itself, the fact is if China does not bring the expected profits, then production will be withdrawn from there. But the main profit for China comes from the USA and Europe, and not from Russia or African countries.

      China is a strong state that has the ability to try to get out of foreign control. However, this very attempt to come out and can the powerful of this world turn away the smile of fortune from the Chinese economy. of course China resists and will resist. you just need to understand the reality of all processes and remember how it all began. It can be assumed that TNCs will make a choice in favor of China and abandon their "homelands". Then the chances of China are really good, at least 20 years before the social demographic pit.
      However, the world situation does not have a place for this, the competitive advantages of China have already exhausted themselves, moreover, betting on China's consumption growth to the level of the United States is just to ruin our planet, I think no one is interested in this. Already this China has been ordered to live long ... but he is resisting Russia and this gives time for his move.
      1. Karish
        Karish 10 December 2012 22: 28
        -3
        Quote: Gluxar_
        Well, Russia is able to produce everything herself

        Nick does not doubt it, only from * here you * to * on you * is a long road.
        Quote: Gluxar_
        China's strong state that has the ability to try to get out of foreign control

        Why is he doing this? Everything suits him and economic growth of 8% is a confirmation of this.
        Quote: Gluxar_
        Then the chances of China are really good. At least for the prospect of 20 years before the socio-demographic pit.

        I liked, they have nowhere to put people, unlike countries where there are just a few people
        Quote: Gluxar_
        China's competitive advantages have exhausted themselves

        They have 800 million. lives in the countryside, so that a simple Chinese would go to Shanghai, Macau, Hong Kong and other economic zones - they need almost a visa. Their potential is not measured.
        1. Gluxar_
          Gluxar_ 10 December 2012 23: 07
          +4
          Quote: Karish
          Why is he doing this? Everything suits him and economic growth of 8% is a confirmation of this.

          Well, 900 million Chinese can be asked about this, although it’s not acceptable to talk about them. Any sovereign power wants independence. China deserves this, as it is a unique civilization. However, sovereignty and economic well-being are not always possible together. The same DPRK is a direct example.
          Why gain true sovereignty? To maintain their traditions and way of thinking. Moreover, only a sovereign state and its people can have a future. What is happening now with China will bury him in decades, including an ecological mine.
          Quote: Karish
          I liked, they have nowhere to put people, unlike countries where there are just a few people

          The modern technological level of the main branches of the national economy does not require a large number of service personnel. So a technically armed peasant is able to feed up to 2000 people. It is the same in mechanical engineering and other industries. Excessive, on the contrary, is becoming a problem for a number of states, the countries of the same Africa are a clear example, as well as China itself. However, when it comes to China's demographic hole, the question is not about the total population, but about ego ratios. Such a sharp jump in the population in the Celestial Empire since the 60s of the last century creates serious problems for the social sphere today, but in the coming decades the situation will deteriorate sharply. About half of the population will reach retirement age in the next 20 years, while at the same time, less than 35 percent will be able to work. And given the fact that the "development boom" mainly affected only the coastal regions and somewhere around 250 million Chinese, the most populated areas, a huge number of people who financially began to feel much better than the rest of the "unemployed" population after retirement are unlikely to agree to the deterioration of their financial situation. This is another risk factor for China.
          Quote: Karish
          They have 800 million. lives in the countryside, so that a simple Chinese would go to Shanghai, Macau, Hong Kong and other economic zones - they need almost a visa. Their potential is not measured.

          The fact of the matter is that the main part of China is not just a third world country, but also of another historical era. Hence the complex social reality. Only a small part of the entire population is involved in the economic miracle, but it is she who is solvent. Once that part is retired, who will pay for its existence? And economic growth implies economic efficiency. The same automation is carried out at all TNK enterprises, manual labor is used for final assembly and performing "complex operations" such as sewing sneakers and labeling. With a decrease in demand, such mass consumer goods will become unnecessary. Lidis will lose their jobs, but not their appetites. Those 250 million Chinese will not return to their compatriots' rice fields, hence the social tension.
  5. Gluxar_
    Gluxar_ 10 December 2012 08: 27
    +2
    Article minus. Revised Renmin Ribao article. The main hidden message - China is terrible, it is so big that it eats us all. Somewhere we already heard it.

    What is the fact. The forecast, like any other forecast, is fake. Achieving similar rates of economic growth is possible at least only if the current dynamics are maintained, which so far is only going by inertia. China is already at the peak of its development, because this development itself was living at the peak of consumption of the "golden billion". It is obvious to everyone that the debt and financial crisis of the West is not over, but just beginning. And this will inevitably lead to a decrease in consumption, to a drop in living standards and, over time, to a fall in the cost of labor. That is, China can only technically and could produce more, but there is nowhere to sell goods. He has been selling them for the last 3 years only on credit, in order to at least stimulate his economic growth. And China needs economic growth to move away from the "return on investment" abyss. China produces a lot of things, but let's see who owns the distribution rights and profits? All factories are built with foreign capital and investments, and these investments require a return. As long as the annual growth exceeds 8%, the investment pays off. As soon as it starts to fall, those who built factories there and take them out. A wave of bankruptcy will close China and then it will not be very sweet there.
    For greater clarity, you can look at the recent past of the USSR. The USSR was an export-oriented country, the main export, just like now, was oil. Mechanical engineering was developed. But its products were largely "fraternal help". What happened when the demand for the main export product collapsed?
    Today the situation in China is similar, the difference is that it needs resources that it does not have. But the demand for its products is already starting to fall, as the solvency of buyers is falling. To whom will China sell its products? Bartering with countries of the 3rd world? This will not give economic growth. And the pace will fall below 7% and write lost.
    1. Karish
      Karish 10 December 2012 08: 51
      +1
      Quote: Gluxar_
      Article minus. Revised Renmin Ribao article. The main hidden message - China is terrible, it is so big that it eats us all. Somewhere we already heard it.

      Unfortunately, this is true - when one and a half billion people are aware of their power, at least based on the theory of large numbers

      Quote: Gluxar_
      China is already at the peak of its development, because this development itself was living at the peak of consumption of the "golden billion

      The controversial statement, their domestic market is huge and the potential is far from exhausted, only to increase the domestic consumption they have no work to do.

      Quote: Gluxar_
      It is obvious to everyone that the debt and financial crisis of the West has not ended, but is just beginning. And this will inevitably lead to a decrease in consumption, to a drop in living standards and, over time, to a drop in labor costs. That is, China only technically can and could produce more, but nowhere to sell goods

      That's right, and it will affect everyone, but China produces the final product (from raw materials, of course). Develop a theme and answer what will happen to the producers of raw materials?
      Quote: Gluxar_
      As long as annual growth exceeds 8%, investment pays off. As soon as it starts to fall, those who built their plants there and will take them out. A wave of bankruptcy will be vacancing China and then it will not be very sweet there

      Well, take out - it's not all1 so simple, you need to build anew, learn the personnel. create infrastructure - therefore, either put up with a decrease in profits or begin to look for new directions of development.
      Quote: Gluxar_
      For greater clarity, you can look at the recent past of the USSR. The USSR was an export-oriented country, the main export, just like now, was oil. Mechanical engineering was developed. But its products were largely "fraternal help". What happened when the demand for the main export product collapsed?

      Nothing has changed, only mechanical engineering isn’t
      Quote: Gluxar_
      Today the situation in China is similar, the difference is that it needs resources that it does not have.

      Dramatically different. China buys raw materials and sells the final product (albeit cheap but final and certainly more expensive than the raw materials from which it is made) Russia sells raw materials for China and buys its goods.
      The situation is completely different, I would say radically.
      Quote: Gluxar_
      To whom will China sell its products?

      Russia (as one of the options, in exchange for raw materials) since you will not pull the oil over yourself, you will not hide and you will not eat it.
      1. Gluxar_
        Gluxar_ 10 December 2012 09: 20
        +3
        Quote: Karish
        The controversial statement, their domestic market is huge and the potential is far from exhausted, only to increase the domestic consumption they have no work to do.

        In fact of the matter. But due to what they will increase? Due to the growth of solvency of the population? Perhaps, but salaries can only grow with the growth of the economy, but if global demand falls, where does growth come from? Replacing external demand with internal is like pulling yourself out of a hole by the hair.
        Quote: Karish
        That's right, and it will affect everyone, but China produces the final product (from raw materials, of course). Develop a theme and answer what will happen to the producers of raw materials?

        China is processing. Foreign companies buy raw materials, bring them to China, process them into goods made according to their own drawings and for their own markets and sell these goods to other countries. China is left with a portion of the profits and all the waste. China is a classic conveyor in the neoliberal model of the distribution of functions of states in the event of final globalization. Now its demographic potential is being exploited, but it is already coming to an end.
        The factory does not have its own mind, as soon as it begins to take on the excess, it is closed.
        Nothing will happen to resource producers, at least in the long run. They will begin to deliver to where the factories from China will move. Resources are paramount.
        Quote: Karish
        Well, take out - it's not all1 so simple, you need to build anew, learn the personnel. create infrastructure - therefore, either put up with a decrease in profits or begin to look for new directions of development.

        This is easier than you think, especially in current communications. This is already happening. For example, the transfer from China to Myanmar, where labor is even cheaper. In China, too, everyone was wild 20 years ago, there was simply a new 2 post-war generation of teenagers who work for a dollar. Today they are already under 40, after 10 years already retired ... but why pay her?
        Quote: Karish
        Dramatically different. China buys raw materials and sells the final product (albeit cheap but final and certainly more expensive than the raw materials from which it is made) Russia sells raw materials for China and buys its goods. The situation is completely different, I would say radically.

        You do not see her correctly. The USSR supplied vital goods to the West, received its currency and bought the goods it needed there. China, for its most part, produces consumer goods. From which it is not difficult to refuse to use food and shelter, for example. Consumption in the West and the USA is declining, unemployment is rising, and salaries are falling. When choosing between a new iPhone and food, a person will leave the choice for food. China will not do without external resources.
        1. Karish
          Karish 10 December 2012 22: 38
          -5
          Quote: Gluxar_
          China is processing. Foreign companies buy raw materials, bring them to China, process them into goods made according to their own drawings and for their own markets and sell these goods to other countries. China is left with a portion of the profits and all waste.

          Add, salary to workers, working factories, technology and training of local personnel. Is this not enough?
          Quote: Gluxar_
          . Now its demographic potential is being exploited, but it is already coming to an end.

          Did you laugh So at least 300 million are uncooked.
          Quote: Gluxar_
          The USSR supplied vital goods to the West, received its currency and bought the goods it needed there.

          Well, without demagoguery. It sounds beautiful about what is vital, but raw materials remain raw materials. By the way, Russia is buying in the West the same vital necessities and for some reason not raw materials. And it should let out by itself.
          Quote: Gluxar_
          China, for its most part, produces consumer goods .from which it is not difficult to refuse to use products such as food and shelter

          Well, of course, add more clones of almost all Russian weapons. And do not talk about China as a backward country. Actually, they have an aircraft carrier, but for some reason in Russia they don’t.
          Quote: Gluxar_
          Consumption in the West and the USA is declining, unemployment is growing

          Yesterday I read that this month in the US unemployment is the lowest in the last 4 years.
          Europe is a different conversation - they have long forgotten what it means to work
          Quote: Gluxar_
          When choosing between a new iPhone and food, a person will leave the choice for food. China will not do without external resources.

          You rightly said about food, Russia imports all food products (including potatoes, meat and even markings). Therefore, oil will flow to the West uninterruptedly at least as long as Russia does not provide itself with food.
          By the way, in China this is all right. They provide themselves with food (1.5 billion), and the surplus is sold to Russia laughing
          1. Gluxar_
            Gluxar_ 10 December 2012 23: 31
            +5
            Quote: Karish
            Add, salary to workers, working factories, technology and training of local personnel. Is this not enough?

            The technology belongs to TNCs, the consequences of the work of factories in the form of environmental destruction remain to the Chinese.
            Quote: Karish
            Did you laugh So at least 300 million are uncooked.

            Above already wrote about demographics. In 10-20 years, 300 pensioners will be employed for 450 employees.
            Quote: Karish
            Well, of course, add more clones of almost all Russian weapons. And do not talk about China as a backward country. Actually, they have an aircraft carrier, but for some reason in Russia they don’t.

            I'm talking about China as it really is, not as a myth. The fact that the Chinese stole the technologies of the mid-20th century put on him the stigma of not a reliable partner. He violated ethics and no other country in the world will sell him something of value. The structure of the economy's potential does not depend on a cheaply stolen aircraft carrier, a copy of the Russian Kuznetsov. And from many objective factors. The fact that China has been turned into a cesspool from the ecological point of view will be the dominant factor in this decade. TNCs will pump out everything they can, and then simply go to their "cheaper" neighbors. Some production facilities in China will remain, but they will become obsolete so quickly that they will not be able to meet the needs of even China itself. Nobody will sell technology to him. An aging population with a spoiled ecology will burden the Chinese economy with an unbearable burden and bring down the social sphere. However, there will also be the same 250 million "engaged" Chinese. However, unlike the grinding of their predecessors, they will shoulder the social security of the "previous waves", which is not present in today's generation. And whether they want to work the same way as today to receive less, and give more is a big question. This stratum of the population will perceive the rest of China as an unnecessary burden and want to consolidate its status, with limited liability. This often happens in countries with a socialist value system during its transition to "democracy and the market". Then we will see the full potential of China ...
            1. Karish
              Karish 11 December 2012 07: 28
              -1
              Quote: Gluxar_
              The technology belongs to TNCs, the consequences of the work of factories in the form of environmental destruction remain to the Chinese.

              Yes? But what about all sorts of clones produced by China? Whose technology is this? Already Chinese and they are developing the same in the future.
              As for the environment, do not worry, compared to Chinese factories, TNK plants are just an example of environmental friendliness. By the way, this Chinese leadership can well regulate and TNCs will understand them. they work like this all over the world (environmentally friendly, of course in the developed world)
              Quote: Gluxar_
              Above already wrote about demographics. In 10-20 years, 300 pensioners will be employed for 450 employees.

              So one child in the family will be canceled and China will give birth to 50 million in a year

              Quote: Gluxar_
              TNCs will pump out everything they can, and then simply go to cheaper neighbors. Some production facilities in China will remain, but they will become obsolete so quickly that they will not be able to meet the needs of even China itself.

              In the 80s (I don’t know if you remember them), Taiwan and South Korea occupied the place of China. Everything came from nowhere, then the local slave power went up and cheap production went to China. So what? The complex and high-tech industry remained there, and these countries didn’t fall into decline, but in many respects remained one of the most advanced countries in the world.

              Quote: Gluxar_
              This stratum of the population will perceive the rest of China as an unnecessary burden and want to consolidate its status, with limited liability. This often happens in countries with a socialist value system during its transition to "democracy and the market". Then we will see the full potential of China ...

              First of all, China has long been in the market and their Communist Party will neatly lead the country to a new form - Capitalist socialism. The Chinese are not fools, they were able to build a market led by the CCP, and will find a way out of this situation. What - what, and they have enough grandmas.
              1. Gluxar_
                Gluxar_ 11 December 2012 08: 51
                +1
                Quote: Karish
                Yes? But what about all sorts of clones produced by China? Whose technology is this? Already Chinese and they are developing the same in the future. As for the environment, do not worry, compared to Chinese factories, TNK plants are just an example of environmental friendliness. By the way, this Chinese leadership can well regulate and TNCs will understand them. they work like this all over the world (environmentally friendly, of course in the developed world)

                What clones? Clones of iPhones? So they are produced by the same company as the original iPhones, only for countries where no one will buy the original ones. Such companies belong to the same TNK, every last bolt. And those companies that churn out "abibas" also do it with the consent and in cooperation with the brand company, so it is simply more profitable, including for tax evasion in their homeland. The growth of the Hong Kong stock exchange, as well as the Shanghai one, shows the real volume of investments in the Chinese economy, but foreign ones. So it's like greece and walnuts.
                you again did not understand anything. Chinese factories are the same American and European TNCs, only not limited by legislation and the "image" of their native states. They don't have to pay for anything, they save on everything, that's why they are placed there. And Chinese officials get their bribes for not seeing this. As soon as they demand not to destroy nature, the cost of work will rise sharply, then TNCs will simply leave China and take everything with them, leaving only the contaminated land and sick workers. This is a typical operation.
                Quote: Karish
                So one child in the family will be canceled and China will give birth to 50 million in a year

                Are you really that narrow-minded? I'm already chewing on you in the 3rd post, but you won't understand what I'm talking about. It's not about the number of people, but about the composition of their relationships. If another 50 million are born, then the working 250 million will have to support 400 million retirees and, in addition, support 50 million children, as a result there will be even more dependents. The problem is in demographic policy, they had a huge jump in the population, and then a decline in the birth rate. So the wave of "population doubling" is approaching retirement age. just like at 63 they began to give birth to 5-6 children, so from 80 there were 1.15 children per woman. And they now have and still have 70% of the working population, not burdened with the support of old people and children, but this generation is getting old and will not be replaced by the same number.
          2. bart74
            bart74 11 December 2012 02: 43
            +3
            Karish,
            Quote: Karish
            Actually, they have an aircraft carrier, but for some reason in Russia they don’t.


            Actually, this is our aircraft carrier. We have the same on the Northern Fleet "Admiral Kuznetsov" is called.

            And about potatoes with markofka, you are also mistaken. Even we have enough of our own in the Leningrad Region, both beets and cabbage.
            And Russia has been exporting grain for the past ten years! (This was not the case in the USSR, there was only fodder) This year, even because of a poor harvest in Siberia, they received more than in the RSFSR.

            You know a little about food too. I led a Chinese brigade at one of the sites. That's what they ate (rice with some herbs, such as a quinoa). You would definitely not eat. In general, the Chinese are omnivorous. And if I'm not mistaken 60% of their territory is poorly developed and not suitable for agricultural use.
            1. Karish
              Karish 11 December 2012 07: 33
              -2
              Quote: bart74
              Actually, this is our aircraft carrier. We have the same on the Northern Fleet "Admiral Kuznetsov" is called.

              No, this is their aircraft carrier.
              Quote: bart74
              And about potatoes with markofka, you are also mistaken. Even in our Leningrad region there is enough of our own, and beets and cabbage

              Last year was in Len.obl. met markovka from Israel. Yes, and generally without fairy tales. All vegetables were inundated with imported products. If enough local, would not be taken for distant lands.
              Quote: bart74
              You know a little about food too. I led a Chinese brigade at one of the sites. That's what they ate (rice with some herbs, such as a quinoa). You would definitely not eat. In general, the Chinese are omnivorous. And if I'm not mistaken 60% of their territory is poorly developed and not suitable for agricultural use.

              Yes, I remember the time of the Cultural Revolution in China, when they ate a caterpillar, and I remember the 80s, when the Tushenkoyts Great Wall they overwhelmed the whole USSR (somehow not to their own detriment) What they eat does not play a role (because they eat that they like and have not starved for a long time and provide for themselves)
              1. Gluxar_
                Gluxar_ 11 December 2012 09: 02
                +2
                Quote: Karish
                Last year was in Len.obl. met markovka from Israel. Yes, and generally without fairy tales. All vegetables were inundated with imported products. If enough local, would not be taken for distant lands.

                Well, you know, you can find Philippine strawberries on the ISS, and Bolivarian aluminum on Mars. The fact that a number of outlets such as hypermarkets has delivery contracts of the same type throughout the world is the norm of the European market. So in Auchan there are French pickles, but this does not mean that someone is buying them there. Look at the volume of products. There are Chinese radishes and Israeli greenhouse carrots, but in sales this is 0,02% of the total mass. These are the laws of the free market.
                Quote: Karish
                Yes, I remember the time of the Cultural Revolution in China, when they ate a caterpillar, and I remember the 80s, when the Tushenkoyts Great Wall they overwhelmed the whole USSR (somehow not to their own detriment) What they eat does not play a role (because they eat that they like and have not starved for a long time and provide for themselves)

                Well, what are you talking about now? What nonsense. Go go to the store and find Chinese products there. Or in the market. China, in terms of production of many crops and livestock, ranks first in the world, but per capita one of the last (not counting Africa).
            2. Gluxar_
              Gluxar_ 11 December 2012 08: 52
              +1
              Quote: Karish
              In the 80s (I don’t know if you remember them), Taiwan and South Korea occupied the place of China. Everything came from nowhere, then the local slave power went up and cheap production went to China. So what? The complex and high-tech industry remained there, and these countries didn’t fall into decline, but in many respects remained one of the most advanced countries in the world.

              Also remember Hong Kong. Until the 71st year, Taiwan occupied the place of China in the UN Security Council. Taiwan is a squeeze of capitalist colonial China after the revolution. There has always been production, since the time of the English protectorate, there it remained. Moreover, as soon as China opened its borders in the 80s, a large number of TNCs were moved from Taiwan and other similar territories to the continent, in view of the advantages already mentioned. Production will remain where it is profitable, so here are the problems of China that we are talking about and will lead to the fact that it will simply become unprofitable to work there.
              Quote: Karish
              First of all, China has long been in the market and their Communist Party will neatly lead the country to a new form - Capitalist socialism. The Chinese are not fools, they were able to build a market led by the CCP, and will find a way out of this situation. What - what, and they have enough grandmas.

              That's exactly what will result. For up to 90% of these leaders have foreign citizenship or assets, as soon as the growth drops from the set percent, they will quickly seize everything, or rather they simply re-register the rights, since there was nothing of the people there except the land, which is now poisoned. This is the fact that the party elite who allowed all this to bet on part of the coastal territories and their population, only 80% of the rest of the Chinese will become unnecessary.
      2. bart74
        bart74 11 December 2012 02: 33
        +2
        Well, here I do not agree with you. In the USSR there was a planned economy and there was no shortage of essential goods, that is, one type of underpants and T-shirts, shirts, and so on, but in an affordable normal amount. And just a minute - OIL STRATEGIC RAW MATERIALS. And those who milk our country understand this. When it is unprofitable to sell oil over a hill, it will be refined here. On the example of gasoline and other fuels (especially solariums!), This can be seen without an armed eye. And at the same time, Russia exports (and trades in local retail almost exclusively) gasoline and diesel to the countries of Central Asia, / I don’t know about Moldova and Ukraine /.
        The main goal of the article is simply to once again show the attractiveness of investment in China. This is skillful propaganda.
        1. Karish
          Karish 11 December 2012 07: 36
          -3
          Quote: bart74
          Well, here I do not agree with you. In the USSR there was a planned economy and there was no shortage of essential goods,

          Did you live in those years? And what do you relate to essential goods? If bread, then yes.
          With meat and butter, there have always been problems, with eggs the same. Yes, and the point is to list. He didn’t raise a potato; it was not realistic to buy (in any case, not in the city). Only a bazaar.
          Well, about household appliances, clothes, etc. not worth mentioning at all.
          1. Gluxar_
            Gluxar_ 11 December 2012 09: 11
            +2
            Quote: Karish
            Did you live in those years? And what do you relate to essential goods? If bread, then yes. With meat and butter, there have always been problems, with eggs the same. Yes, and the point is to list. He didn’t raise a potato; it was not realistic to buy (in any case, not in the city). Only a bazaar. Well, about household appliances, clothes, etc. not worth mentioning at all.

            This is if you remember the end of the 80s, and if 70 was everything. I just needed to know where to get it, moreover, I mean everything. And don't forget the difference in cultural perceptions of abundance. Previously, to realize oneself happy, one did not need an iPhone or a maserati, but the fact that your compatriot is now conquering the vastness of space warmed many people. There have never been any problems with food, at least in most cities. The deficit was, however, largely artificial. When people bought in reserve, I remember those chests of school uniforms and similar "deficits". Coupons appeared only in the 90th year, it was already a collapse. A more or less serious dip in the consumer basket began to appear only with the humpback.
            1. Karish
              Karish 12 December 2012 23: 08
              0
              Quote: Gluxar_
              and if 70 it was all. I just needed to know where to get it, and besides, I mean everything

              Of course, you just need to call a spade a spade - a deficit and a black market.
              Quote: Gluxar_
              And do not forget the differences in cultural perception of abundance.

              Interestingly, poverty of course is different - for some cabbage soup is liquid, for someone small pearls.
              Quote: Gluxar_
              Previously, to recognize oneself happy, an iPhone or Maserati was not needed, but the fact that your compatriot is now conquering the vastness of space warmed many people

              And what was the problem of adding oil and meat to this.
              In the States, this and that (space achievements) and there were no problems with food
              And then I remember the year 79, the Kalinin region of the city of Nelidovo. In addition to gray macoron, canned goods of their sea kale, milk and bread - there was nothing. Eggs - once a week. meat - only in Moscow (a night on the train), like butter and any other goodies like doctor's sausage. Yes there was a product called food bone - it was still bone because there was no meat on it for 200 years already and in general there was an impression that the cows consisted only of white gnawed bones since there was never beef in stores. Only Moscow or the market at sky-high (at that time) prices
              I remember moving to St. Petersburg and going to the store (I was still a child), for a long time I could not believe that butter and sausage can simply be bought at the store.
              Quote: Gluxar_
              There have never been problems with food, at least in most cities.

              Without fairy tales, please, I have rolled enough in the Union, Pskov, Novgorod, Kalinin, Vologda Obl. - a solid, hungry land. I didn’t raise it myself, or I didn’t go to the city of olust --- there’s nothing to eat.

              Quote: Gluxar_
              Coupons appeared only in the 90th year, it was already a collapse.

              ??????????????. For soap and powder (washing) already in 1987, oil 88 - just before it could be bought in regional cities, after 88 and it ended.
              Quote: Gluxar_
              A more or less serious failure in the consumer basket began to appear only with a hunchback.

              When it came, it was not failure, but a northern furry animal.
          2. WW3
            WW3 11 December 2012 23: 13
            +2
            Quote: Karish
            With meat and butter, there have always been problems, with eggs the same. Yes, and the point is to list. He didn’t raise a potato; it was not realistic to buy (in any case, not in the city). Only a bazaar.
            Well, about household appliances, clothes, etc. not worth mentioning at all.

            It was only in the Gorbachev period of perestroika that the know-how appeared as an empty counter ... although you are exaggerating ... shopping you could find what you need ... what was not in one was in the other and vice versa ...
            1. Karish
              Karish 12 December 2012 23: 10
              -4
              Quote: WW3
              It was only in the Gorbachev period of perestroika that the know-how appeared as an empty counter ... although you are exaggerating ... shopping you could find what you need ... what was not in one was in the other and vice versa ...

              Have you ever been to the outback? In the era of developed socialism in a supermarket called SELP?
  6. zemlyak
    zemlyak 10 December 2012 09: 08
    +6
    The problem with China will begin when the pace of development of its economy slows down, when the cost of labor rises and the final cost of the product increases. That's when the internal Chinese problems begin, which at one point will become global. And after the problems, unrest (internal Chinese) will begin and in order to stop them it is necessary to let off steam. Then the Chinese who were standing near the Japanese embassy with posters and slogans about the `` disputed islands '' will stand at the gates of the Russian embassy with geographical maps on which all of Siberia and the Far East are Chinese provinces.
    1. Gluxar_
      Gluxar_ 10 December 2012 09: 23
      +2
      Quote: zemlyak
      The problem with China will begin when there will be a slowdown in its economy, when the cost of labor will increase and the final cost of the product will increase. This is where the internal Chinese problems that will become global in the first place will begin. And behind the problems, unrest (inside China) begins, and in order to stop them one needs to let off steam.

      Moreover, the level of salaries has already grown higher than that of neighbors in the Asia-Pacific region or Mexico. In China, there are several more advantages that allow it to develop. This is, for example, a preferential attitude towards ecology, although it is a time bomb.
    2. Gluxar_
      Gluxar_ 10 December 2012 23: 32
      +3
      Quote: Karish
      You rightly said about food, Russia imports all food products (including potatoes, meat and even markings). Therefore, oil will flow to the West uninterruptedly at least as long as Russia does not provide itself with food. By the way, in China this is all right. They provide themselves with food (1.5 billion), and the surplus is sold to Russia

      You are right if you look at the data for 2000-2002, but during this time, food imports to Russia decreased by 14 times, and in some categories like wheat, imports fell by 26 times. Dynamics on the face, and such a deplorable state of Russia was associated with the collapse of the 90s. Over the past 3 years, Russia has become the world food donor and the prospects in this direction are enormous. with such dynamics, by 2015 Russia will be completely self-sufficient in food matters. And given the fact that the main food suppliers today are the CIS countries, then within the framework of the Eurasian Union there is no such problem today. China, on the other hand, is losing fertile soil faster than anyone in the world. Over 50 years, the thickness of the black earth layer in the fields of northeastern China has decreased by 50%. The layer of chernozem, which has grown by a centimeter over several decades, is now decreasing at a rate of about a centimeter per year.

      Northeastern regions of China rich in chernozemic soils have always been considered the main areas of food crop production. However, at present they are on the verge of an unprecedented crisis, writes the Chinese publication Economic Information.
      According to statistics from the Ministry of Land and Natural Resources of the PRC, at present, more than 10% of arable land in the country is contaminated with heavy metals. In the south of the country, about half of the territories are contaminated with cadmium, arsenic, mercury and other toxic heavy metals, as well as organic substances of petroleum origin.

      In addition to industrial waste pollution, soils in China also suffer from excessive use of chemicals and pesticides. About 1,3 million tons of pesticides are used in China annually, which is 2,5 times more than the world average.

      According to the Agricultural Institute of Yuannan Province, only about 0,1% of the chemicals used in the province kill field pests, the remaining 99,9% penetrate the ecosystem and are a source of soil pollution with hormones and heavy metals.

      According to experts, as a result of the deterioration of arable land, annually in the country agricultural production is reduced by 10 million tons.

      This is another trend that no one talks about, but I called it "ecology" above. This is the second factor in China's economic miracle. Only the factor that comes to an end and it is simply impossible to fill it.


      So in the very near future, China will purchase products in Russia, and will have to buy a lot. For there are a lot of Chinese.
  7. donchepano
    donchepano 10 December 2012 09: 31
    +4
    Yes, economy is economy, but we need to arm ourselves. No cuts.
    1. mda
      mda 10 December 2012 21: 11
      0
      Quote: donchepano
      No cuts.

      How can this be any reduction!? And where are we going to put the old missiles? But new ones must be created MANDATORY despite the fact that the amers are behind us in nuclear missiles.
  8. david210512
    david210512 10 December 2012 10: 00
    +2
    donchepano,totally agree with you !!!!!!
  9. Sergg
    Sergg 10 December 2012 10: 21
    +3
    The strength of China lies not only in the number of people, but also in the fact that the Chinese economy works exclusively on strengthening statehood. Where have you heard that they feed the oligarchs, reduce weapons, listen to American advisers? No where. The interests of the State in China are higher than the interests of individual members of society - this makes them strong!

    When in Russia there will be the same as in China - STATE! In the meantime, we see ugly officials who steal, when we understand that they are committing a state crime, this is not a sack of potatoes to steal, and we will punish the bureaucrats toughly adequate to the scale of the crime.
    1. Gluxar_
      Gluxar_ 10 December 2012 23: 43
      +3
      Quote: Sergg
      The strength of China lies not only in the number of people, but also in the fact that the Chinese economy works exclusively to strengthen statehood. Where have you heard that they feed the oligarchs, reduce weapons, listen to American advisers? No where. The interests of the State in China are higher than the interests of individual members of society - this makes them strong! When in Russia there will be the same as in China - STATE! In the meantime, we see ugly officials who steal, when we understand that they are committing a state crime, this is not a sack of potatoes to steal, and we will punish the bureaucrats toughly adequate to the scale of the crime.

      Chinese statehood is based on the CCP's leading role in the lives of Chinese people. Economic growth is based on the actions of TNCs that have complete freedom of action there. They act, grind the human potential and ecology of the region, turning them into a growth in profits. As soon as there is nothing left to perm, TNCs will go to other regions, and the Chinese state will remain with 500 million pensioners, a food crisis, a devastated environment and, as a result, a large population. True, there will be about 200 million Chinese "workers" in the coastal zones, but by China's standards, this is a middle class that has nothing to do with the CCP. And also there are the same country Chinese oligarchs billionaires and stolen officials, who are more in China than in the whole world.
      Last June, the Central Bank of the People's Republic of China in its report, citing data from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, reported that from the middle of the 90-s until today, China has fled abroad or went missing from 16 to 18 of thousands of party functionaries , as well as officials of security agencies, justice, state-owned enterprises and Chinese departments located abroad. The report also said that the fugitives took with them a total of about 800 billion yuan ($ 127 billion).
      According to the internal document of the PRC government, which was transferred by a source from Beijing, according to the situation for March of this year, 187 of 204 members of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the CPN 17 Central Committee have the closest relatives who have a residence permit or citizenship of the United States and Europe, which is 91%; 142 of 167 members who joined the Politburo after the 17 Congress (85%) and 113 of 127 members of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (89%) have direct relatives living abroad.

      On this occasion, Chinese bloggers joke that the 18 Congress of the Communist Party will be a large meeting of the parents of Americans.

      According to statistics from the US government, 75% of children of Chinese ministerial-level officials (including retired) have a residence permit or US citizenship.
      A prime example of a "naked" official is Dong Yuejin, the former CEO of the state-owned China International Construction and Telecommunications Corporation. In the media he was called "the dashing" naked "official in history." He illegally embezzled 580 million yuan ($ 92 million). Moreover, his entire family has long emigrated to the United States.

      This is the kind of China it is if you look at it a little more closely, and not sculpt from it "another Armageddon for Russia." Our enemies are in a completely different place, think about your present and your families, and not about the mythical bloodthirsty Chinese. There, by the way, they are also being trained against us ...
  10. baltika-18
    baltika-18 10 December 2012 11: 03
    +5
    The very beginning of the article. Who depends on whom, China depends on the world economy and it depends on China. The author concludes that the world economy depends on China. He thinks that he is not quite right. The world economy at this stage is controlled by global financial structures, but simply the clans that these structure and belong. The economy of China by and large created by them, with it they control it (the economy). They want to fail China, fail, because all of China's growth depends on external factors, the main of which is growing consumption, artificially created distortions of the economies of several countries Europe and Russia. I believe that even Russia can fail China, as well as the entire world economy, the entire financial and economic model created by the clans. To do this, it’s necessary and enough just to change our internal economic model, this is the world elite that understands perfectly and therefore will try to Russia from their tenacious pens do not let go.
    1. Ascetic
      Ascetic 10 December 2012 11: 51
      +6
      baltika-18,

      I agree completely. +++
      Quote: baltika-18
      For this, it is necessary and sufficient just to change our internal economic model, this is the world elite who understands perfectly and therefore will try not to let Russia out of its tenacious hands.


      Almost simultaneously, we spoke in the same spirit good
  11. AK-47
    AK-47 10 December 2012 11: 07
    +3
    Yes, how clumsy it is!
    What failed world Zionism seems to succeed Chinese socialism.
    Celestial, the name is what, mistress of the world.
    If you chew snot helping China, then it will be so.
  12. Ascetic
    Ascetic 10 December 2012 11: 10
    +14
    China was allowed copy, produce counterfeit, steal technologies, other people's technologies - so that he only implements and uses them.
    World Factory, Global Product Center - from now on, the role and place of China, its ceiling beyond which they will not be allowed to jump .. Who will manage this new commodity-industrial monster? Of course, the good old West. How? Across Western innovation, Western technology and Western virtual "money." This is the essence of the globalization of the economy, where everyone is destined for their own role (if I can say "their own rut", the way out of which and attempts to pursue an independent policy are fraught with serious "punishment" up to and including being forced into the Stone Age.
    The essence of Western policy in itself is extremely primitive. It all comes down to one thing: how to survive and grow rich, being resource-deficient and therefore physically irresistibly dependent on external sources of raw materials. How not to show, to hide this objective dependence, so as not to be strangled, not become controlled by the territories of the raw materials-rich competing countries? The answer is obvious: through continuous innovation. Through leadership in manufacturing and political technology
    The West is compelled to compensate for this resource weakness through the creation of the West itself. leverage: technological, political, military ..
    “China’s dizzying economic success has made him ... a hostage to the Western model of globalization. Yes, China has already predetermined the “position of acting Zeus "in the modern financial and economic system.

    What new chinese course on the development of domestic consumption it can be said that if almost all the products of the resource-less countries of the West and China, almost all of the products and products they consume are exported, - made from foreign, primarily Russian, raw materials?
    The ultra-modern technology of the West, which China is just borrowing, is survival technologies in conditions of complete and absolute resource dependence.
    In the global unipolar world, Russia is also assigned a quite definite role as a raw material pump for the Western world. And so that we could not, God forbid, get out of dependence on raw materials, we "entered the WTO" in fact, forced to compete with the whole world. That is, they set us up. We cannot compete, we have the most northern territory. Everything that we do not produce will be more expensive. They are just trying to doom us to extinction
    That is why, Comrade Stalin, said that in our country, in Russia, the economy can be successful, only in one case - when it will be a closed economy. They produced something themselves and consumed it. The USSR was such an economy. We made everything for ourselves. Starting from matches, ending with space stations. They themselves produced and consumed themselves ..
    By the way, he wrote that we, as the northernmost territory, cannot compete with anyone. Everything we produce will be more expensive than anywhere else.
    Only Russia has almost everything for full autonomous development - through a multiple increase in domestic demand and consumption. Through a multiple increase in our own infrastructure. But for this we need to change the liberal Western model of the economy to a state one in Russia. No matter what it will be called nationally oriented capitalism or socialism with elements of the private sector, the main thing is to get out of the vicious model of globalism,
    1. baltika-18
      baltika-18 10 December 2012 13: 31
      +5
      Quote: Ascetic
      Only Russia has almost everything for a full-fledged autonomous development - through a multiple increase in domestic demand and consumption. Through a multiple increase in our own infrastructure. But for this we need to change the liberal Western model of the economy to a state one in Russia. No matter what it will be called nationally oriented capitalism or socialism with elements of the private sector, the main thing is to get out of the vicious model of globalism,

      Stanislav is well said, the point is not in the name, but in essence, in the complex of goals and objectives set and implemented, the ways of their implementation, as well as what is called the national idea.
  13. JonnyT
    JonnyT 10 December 2012 14: 07
    +1
    Here is the bearing !!!!!

    China is a very strong country definitely !! But not stronger than us!
  14. I. Brovkin
    I. Brovkin 10 December 2012 14: 44
    0
    Here is the bearing !!!!!

    China is a very strong country definitely !! But not stronger than us!

    So far, not stronger, but if China does not stall, then in 40-50 years, it may outstrip Russia militarily. Of course, this is not a fact and a lot depends on our development, but the Chinese are confidently taking "leaps and bounds" towards this.
  15. Megatron
    Megatron 10 December 2012 16: 57
    +2
    I think China will tear up the navel soon. In 20 years, when all these penny weavers and consumer goods collectors will retire.

    And for about half a century, the States and their financial system have been threatened with collapse.
    And they don’t fall, and it seems they’re not going to.

    The large-scale war between the USA and China is extremely beneficial to Russia on a global scale. Of course, at first it will be difficult without most imported goods, but this will just allow us to start production of our own, shock therapy, self-cleaning. No way without it. Well, cash in on military supplies.
  16. Sasha 19871987
    Sasha 19871987 10 December 2012 18: 00
    +1
    What can I say, the Chinese fellows, while we played a cold war with Amers, they quietly drew conclusions and developed ....
  17. sapulid
    sapulid 10 December 2012 20: 33
    +1
    "If Russia and the countries of Central Asia, as well as the countries of Africa or Latin America, cooperating with China, sell oil, gas, ore and precious metals to the Celestial Empire, then Beijing in return supplies consumer goods and high-tech products, which are successfully competing in price with their Western counterparts. By 2016, according to forecasts of OECD experts, China may become the world's leading economy, bypassing the United States. "

    Damn, they can’t produce high-quality steel, ceramics ... Everything is imported. Do you think you can produce something high-quality from base material? Do you think that with the inevitable aging of the population, will they be able to support production growth? What about the strong material stratification of society with the strongest pollution of nature? Can we talk about drinking water in China? Maybe remember the lack of female population?
    Damn, this is another "dragon" with castration. In 10 years, we will be talking about Indian states in the former Chinese provinces. They will not be able to maintain low wages for a long time, and this is their economic growth ...
  18. sprut
    sprut 10 December 2012 20: 52
    0
    We, nosebleed, but the eastern territories just need to develop exponentially! Move the capital. somewhere farther.
    1. bart74
      bart74 11 December 2012 02: 52
      +1
      And what is the point of transferring the capital? Waste money again? Reprints of money cards alone will take a lot. You just need to develop a program for the relocation of people from regions with high unemployment, provide them with housing and create conditions for work. And around, so that the Cossack villages and Cossack patrols. And the land to the Cossacks, even a day in service, and three days in the field. That's how they want to do it. But so far, the matter does not go beyond the "mummer patrols" in Moscow. The intestine is thin.
      1. Gluxar_
        Gluxar_ 11 December 2012 09: 13
        +1
        Quote: bart74
        And what is the point of transferring the capital? Waste money again? Reprints of money cards alone will take a lot. You just need to develop a program for the relocation of people from regions with high unemployment, provide them with housing and create conditions for work. And around, so that the Cossack villages and Cossack patrols. And the land to the Cossacks, even a day in service, and three days in the field. That's how they want to do it. But so far, the matter does not go beyond the "mummer patrols" in Moscow. The intestine is thin.

        Still will be. It needs a progressive development, and not a breast on an embrasure. You just need to work and create something every day. Although a tree near the house to plant, but all good.
  19. Kostichous
    Kostichous April 10 2014 18: 55
    -1
    All good!
    Tell me who has the cash program installed? What pros and cons have been identified during use?