On May 18 and 19, an epoch-making event for many (including us) took place - the summit of the states of Central Asia, which are now called C5 - Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
But this summit was held not in the capital of one of the above countries, but in Xian, one of the capitals of ancient China, from where, by the way, the Great Chinese Silk Road went to Europe.
Symbolic? Oh yeah! Including because it was again about the great Chinese silk. way, but modern. And the summit was held in the C5 + 1 format, where “1” is China.
In general, I got the impression that Comrade Xi, having assessed the situation in the world well, stopped playing retail and went for a large wholesale. However, judge for yourself.
Documents were signed decently, but I will start with the most important, in my opinion. With the signing by China, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan of the document about new steps in the construction of a railway to bypass Russia. It is clear that the key word here is “new”. It very well shows the essence of the moment, which means that the old steps have already been taken, we must move on.
This plan actually creates a shorter route to Europe for the Asian countries of the region. Only one nuance, completely unimportant for them, but important for us - the path lies bypassing Russian territory.
The route, frankly, is not without flaws, the main of which is Iran, but there is an option instead of the route through Iran to use ferry crossings to Azerbaijan, here is Turkey, here is Europe. In addition, it makes no difference to the countries of the Asia-Pacific region, through which countries to drive goods, the main thing is that it be cheap and safe.
As for “cheap” in terms of our Russian Railways, I can’t say, but in January 2023, 142 rubles were put up for the delivery of a minivan from Vladivostok to Moscow. Carriage deliveries can cost up to half a million rubles for a 000-ton car on the same route.
Security ... This is generally a moot point. Railway safety is a very delicate and complex matter.
However, once the documents are signed, it means that the participating countries are well aware of what they are getting into. And they are getting involved in the process of the final transition from the Russian sphere of influence to the Chinese one.
In principle, if there is an income for the country from this friendship, what difference does it make where to go to the parade, on May 9 in Moscow or on October 1 in Beijing? China, however, does not indulge itself in parades and holds it once every ten years. But nothing, as they say, would be the case, but there will be dancing.
And China, in the person of the leadership, not only talks about projects that guarantee profits for the economies of the participating countries, but affects much more significant areas, namely security. Security is not only about joint projects with China, we are talking about the security of the participating countries in general.
In fact, the Chinese leader Xi Jinping, openly offered the former Soviet republics that are members of the EAEU, the CSTO and other letter combinations, a real military bloc.
Military alliance of China, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.
Xi Jinping said that China is ready to strengthen the defense capabilities of the participating countries, enhance their external and internal security, and ensure peace in the region. And for this, as a "goodwill step", Comrade Xi promised to give out 26 billion yuan from the master's shoulder. 3,6 billion dollars.
For what specific purposes, the Chinese leader did not say exactly, but even if this money is simply transferred to Chinese weapon, which will go to the armies of the countries participating in the new bloc, the amount is already quite decent. Chinese weapons are much cheaper than Russian ones.
Xi Jinping also said that China can take part in the development of the entire region. That is, to participate in the development and coordination of the development strategy, implement it, develop and build large infrastructure projects. Naturally, at the same time, Chinese companies will enter the region and start working, which in turn will give jobs to local residents.
You know, no matter how you look at it, it is an approach from such trump cards that Russia has practically nothing to cover with.
Undoubtedly, recently Russia has worked out its role in the CSTO very well and retained power to the President of Kazakhstan, Tokayev, who now demonstrates how he can be grateful for this. Purely in Kazakh. Next time, this work will apparently be done by Chinese special forces and it will be interesting to see the results. Although, it is quite possible that in the new world in Kazakhstan everyone will simply bathe in yuan and there will be no dissatisfied people at all.
Some analysts have already expressed the opinion that this is an application for the transition of the once Soviet, and then, with grief in half, and Russian Central Asia into the sphere of influence of China. Perhaps the opinion is somewhat pessimistic, but this is not even an application, but a statement of what has happened. So to speak, in fact.
Yes, so far no one disputes the membership of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in the CSTO, and joining the new bloc does not cancel participation in the Russian project. Or cancel?
In fact, all participation in the CSTO of any countries except Russia is a fiction. No, as for solving their problems at the expense of Russian soldiers, it's easy. Kazakhstan showed this in all its glory, and Armenia demonstrated it almost every year, trying to solve its problems with Azerbaijan in exactly the same way: to keep their own people at home, and others to die.
Therefore, I am sure that as the process of organizing a new C5 + 1 (PRC) military bloc moves forward, everyone who will not be able to get anything from participating in the future will leave the CSTO.
Roughly the same thing could happen to the dying EAEU. Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan will simply finish him off with their exit (the rest fled earlier or did not join at all).
And there will be two “blocks for three”, brawls from Russia, Belarus and Armenia. The last one is not accurate.
It is clear that the long work of Chinese analysts and forecasters has yielded certain results, and now China will try to use the situation in which Russia has been plunged to the maximum benefit for itself.
It's no secret that our Central Asian rulers, whatever you call them, presidents, bashis, sultans, or whatever else, they, just like their ancestors many hundreds of years ago, understand the language of power best of all. Who is strong is worthy. Friendship, cooperation, worship - the main thing here is strength and power.
China today has, albeit with reservations, but economic power and military strength, this is a fact. Significantly exceeding the capabilities of C5 countries. And the army fleet China has what it takes, at least in numbers on paper. Not like Kazakhstan, of course. But Russia... Let's not talk about sad things, but in short - Russia continues to surrender one position after another and there is no end in sight to this process.
Even after the start of the NMD, the Central Asian leaders were very wary of the idea of a “march to the West”, and only after the collapse and abandonment of the Kharkiv region and Kherson they exhaled and began to unanimously support anti-Russian sanctions. The bear was not as dangerous as it seemed to everyone.
And here lies the very reason for the change of course. Russia can not be afraid, Russia was not as strong as it seems. A new partner, or whatever it comes out next, must be stronger.
Of course, this does not mean that all the Central Asian republics will turn away from Russia overnight like this. It is a sin not to use the opportunity to pump money from a neighboring country in such quantities as guest workers do. But there is a certain wariness, and this is already enough for the pragmatic Chinese comrades to poke everyone into the “successes” of the Russian army in the NMD and give out that “everything will not be the same under them.”
Russia is not invited either to build a railway or to participate in a military bloc.
And here everything is just amazing. The leadership of the PRC decided to create its own zone of trade and influence. Central Asia is a very profitable region, Chinese firms have been sitting there for a long time and densely. And then the expansion of everything plus the filling of this zone with what? That's right, yuan. Which is not a convertible currency, and there are many steps to be taken towards this Chinese currency. This is where it actually started.
Naturally, since “Any revolution is only worth something if it knows how to defend itself” (according to V. I. Lenin), then China must also protect its revolutionary campaign against the West from all possible and impossible surprises. And the region is still the same in every sense, Afghanistan and Iran are enough through the roof. But whoever takes risks wins. Moreover, China is demonstrating its readiness to become a regional peacemaker in Central Asia.
Can this defense alliance pose any threat to Russia?
In fact, no. The collapse of the CSTO for the sake of a new union, in principle, can be taken with relief, since the very idea of \uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbprotecting "younger brothers" at one's own expense is, as it were, utterly flawed in our time. Another question is that plugging holes in the work of the Russian diplomatic department with soldiers of the Russian army is not the best way out.
The collapse of the EAEU… What is dead cannot die anyway. Another question is that the countries of Central Asia will not completely abandon Russia either, a balance is simply needed here. In accordance with the English folk wisdom that you should not keep your eggs in one basket. That is. relations with Russia will remain, but they will simply go by the wayside, giving way to the more aggressive and wealthy in many respects, China.
“Comrade Xi, come, put things in order” - it is, of course, true, but if Comrade Xi starts to put things in order using Chinese methods ... In general, at least some kind of counterbalance is needed.
But nevertheless, Russia was not invited either to the military bloc or to the construction site. It is clear that if they were not invited to the summit, then there is no need to talk about the rest. They decided that they would manage on their own, and politically there were fewer problems.
Speaking of eggs in baskets. China professes this principle in exactly the same way. China has a lot of problems with the delivery of goods to other regions. And hitting Chinese trade is easier than ever, simply by creating tension at critical points in the maritime trade routes. For China, such a main point is the Strait of Malacca. And in a couple to him - Sunda. Any tension in the area - and that's it, the exit to the Indian Ocean is blocked automatically.
There are other points: the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Suez Canal, the Strait of Gibraltar. Risk zones, if you will, because the closure of even one of these places greatly complicates China's maritime trade.
Given the general instability of the world, China's aspirations are understandable. Here the best example is the Russian Crimea. The most reliable way is along the continent. Ferry crossings are blocked by storms, the bridge, as practice has shown, can be disabled by sabotage or a rocket. Therefore, China is looking not just for a new Silk Road, but for ways to implement a project that will diversify traditional routes.
Therefore, the Silk Road is not just one route. It can be multiple routes. Comfortable and not very, cheap or expensive, but the main thing in them is that they must be safe. What was in the diagram above is one of the options. But China will build more than one such corridor, no matter under what names. The important thing is that they will go to Europe, bypassing all zones of tension.
China has a huge production capacity, and once launched, the system must work. And it will work only when a clear sale is established. Today with sales to Europe, the tension caused by NWO. Therefore, it is quite natural that China will build alternative routes for the transfer of goods to Europe.
After all, Europe is the second largest consumer of Chinese goods after ASEAN. Over $500 billion per year (562 in 2022). There is something to strive for.
And therefore, the PRC will implement its projects in Central Asia, and implement it without Russia, which itself is today a point of tension for China both because of military operations and because of political and economic sanctions. China will definitely not quarrel with its main consumers of goods (EU - 562 billion dollars, USA - 581 billion dollars). And let the goods past Russia. Experts talk about the losses of JSC Russian Railways in the region of 120 billion rubles, judging by theoretical calculations about the capacity of the new railway at the level of 12-15 million tons.
Results
The results are not optimistic. Russia absolutely calmly surrenders Central Asia (conquered with considerable bloodshed and actually built by Russia) to China.
The EAEU is becoming a fiction, since the new C5+China economic bloc has more prospects than the EAEU, which in the current situation is not very interesting to the participants due to the sanctions against Russia.
The CSTO is becoming a fiction as China makes a very "tasty" proposal to organize a new military bloc.
In the future, if Russia is removed from the Silk Road, there will be economic losses.
Today, many "experts" unanimously started talking about the fact that “Moscow and Beijing in this region are not competitors, but partners, both countries are interested in the infrastructural development of the region, the creation of transport corridors and other economic projects in it, therefore many initiatives in Central Asia will be implemented by combining the efforts of Russia and China, for which the region also has geopolitical value.
This, for example, is Yana Leksyutina, a professor at St. Petersburg State University. But there were others who also claimed that "the Russian and the Chinese are brothers forever."
However, for some reason, China did not invite Russia to the military bloc or to the construction of the region. Perhaps they are so strong and confident that they can handle it themselves?