If the default is already today?
When in January of this year the first publications about the threat of default in the United States appeared on the VO web pages - one original (If tomorrow default. Not in Moscow, but in Washington) and a few borrowed ones, it excited quite a few. It was hard to believe. But the time has come, she crept up.
It has not become clear today that the United States, all together and each individually, owes everyone, and owes a lot. And it doesn't make it any easier for anyone. The question - "And who will give?", has been standing for a long time. A long time ago. It's just that the answer is much more complicated.
Counting trillions in someone else's pocket, and even for someone else's debt, is a thankless task. Although in the American specific case, no one has to count. It is known that the debt board in New York, as before, smoothly, no longer works. And what? Nobody even flinched.
Everyone and everything seems to know anyway, and, as expected, they had to raise the bar of debt even in the winter. But here's the bad luck - President Biden and his devoted Janet Yellen, who for years ruled the Fed, which printed dollars, and now - in the Treasury, which spends, interfere.
The question is who? Of course, the Republicans in Congress. But the default certainly scares them. Such are the grimaces of bipartisan democracy. And it is with her that it turns out, the money runs out, and debts accumulate.
Janet Yellen has already promised the media that she will "inform Congress when the government can return to normal debt service." There will be a limit, there will be a ceiling, there will be maintenance, that is, mandatory payments on US securities, of which Russia still has quite a few.
From Congress, the head of the Treasury was reminded of the old initiative of Donald Trump, who back in 2017 proposed to offset American debts with debts to Americans. Disputes with the IMF and the World Bank, with other countries are all trifles compared to the settlement with their own citizens.
Trump seemed to know they had money, even before the multibillion-dollar injection into the pandemic. And he believed, not without reason, that the settlement of debts would immediately strengthen confidence not only in the States proper, but specifically in the Republicans in power.
Goodbye, Democrats, or rather, goodbye forever! But it didn't work. Then the Congress was democratic. Now Republican, but the President is a Democrat, old, old.
Oh, I'll pass!
How many times in the United States over the past 10-15 years, and better in 22 years, the bar of public debt has been raised, anyone can count - there is an abundance of information on the network for this. But this is actually not very important, since no one will even think of canceling the trend outlined many years ago.
After all, it has already carried through so many times, and experts agree that it will carry through this one as well. Let's not be afraid of repetitions, because even today the public is reminded that the devil is not so terrible as he is painted. The size of the public debt is compared with the US GDP and complain that the dollar is under an unprecedented attack from China and its satellites, including from Russia.
Americans were once the world's creditor, but they have been building up their debt for a very long time, and it is growing faster than the country's GDP. In the current century alone, the US national debt has grown almost sevenfold. Almost a quarter of the US budget is already spent on servicing debt.
However, the prospect of living from default to default, like, for example, Argentina, is still considered fantastic for the States. Nevertheless, not only Republicans are already demanding budgetary reforms, although rumors about an attempt to reorganize the entire system of American financial management are definitely something from the field of conspiracy theories.
One thing is somewhat frightening - internal problems in the United States always mean attempts to solve them at the expense of the outside world. "Little Victorious" or the falling dollar game that no one wants to recognize is just one of those games. Although not taking advantage of the difficulties of a geopolitical adversary, whatever they may be, this is certainly a mistake.
What is a ceiling?
This is as short as possible. After all, whatever you say about the ceiling, but America, as they gave it, will continue to give it a loan. Especially their own citizens and businesses. Although credit история the country is already so tarnished that you will never wipe it off.
As soon as the US national debt reaches or almost reaches the ceiling, all the world's finances for the Fed turn into a kind of illusion. Purely outsider. Although the refusal to repay debts means really bad ratings and a drop in confidence in the advanced US economy.
But who trusts her? If only from under pressure, or in the position of the current Kyiv regime. But the default in the US is a powerful stimulus to the global crisis, and, as already mentioned, following the American banks, not just any one, but the Swiss Credit Suisse, went down the drain.
The global financial market is literally suspended on American papers and is unlikely to endure a refusal on them. Reset - as much as you like, but write-off - thank you. Coupled with cuts in government spending and social programs, and hence with unemployment and rising income disparities, the likelihood of large-scale shocks is growing.
Unpopular measures will be taken to reduce costs and increase incomes, unsecured, mind you that hardly anyone will like it. And in general, the likelihood of political crises, not only in the United States, will reach such heights that even the most liberal democracy will not help.
One of the bloggers successfully compared the ceiling of the national debt with the ceiling in the apartment. Break through - pay for repairs, rest and break - you have to pay even more. That's just to raise the ceiling in the apartment, in contrast to the public debt, you see, much more difficult.
Sleep, I'll forgive everything
In conclusion, a short digression is no longer into economics and finance, but into politics, which directly depends on them, but sometimes dictates to them.
So, debts, of course, can be written off, but by no means from everyone, especially if it is your own electorate. Debts can be drastically reduced in price, just as sharply knocking down the dollar. But it won't take long to finish the game not to a technical, but to a very real default and bankruptcy of the country as a whole.
The liberal party all over the world is already shouting, like Chekhov's - "this cannot be, because it can never be." Of course, without going into explanations, why actually? If it is profitable, then it is even very capitalistic, and even more so - globalist.
It is said about the electorate for a reason, since this electorate is not only Trump's, but also Biden's. Something by hundreds of thousands of citizens regularly flows from one to another, but it is very difficult to estimate how much this “something” is. The electorate is a living organism, and is constantly updated.
We have to work with him, tirelessly, in which there are actually a lot of dollars, and why the topic of default and bankruptcy began to arise so regularly in the United States is not easy to explain clearly. The main thing is that the electorate should not wither from this, but remain in good shape.
However, this is not a fact either, since elections in different countries show that someone benefits from an active electorate, and someone from a passive one, like the Australian animal koala. That is, high turnout or low turnout - politicians do not care at all.
In fact, the tone is still needed, because there are lower thresholds for voter turnout and there are some restrictions on the ability to manipulate the votes of voters - ordinary representatives of the electorate.
And it is not for nothing that the American media today are in a hurry to report on the growth of anxious moods among the population. Especially with regard to deposits in banks - do not forget that shortly before the disputes over the debt and its ceiling in the States, several banks collapsed at once, and with them the same unsinkable Credit Suisse.