Default is a delicate matter, Petruha. Especially in America

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Default is a delicate matter, Petruha. Especially in America


If the default is already today?


When in January of this year the first publications about the threat of default in the United States appeared on the VO web pages - one original (If tomorrow default. Not in Moscow, but in Washington) and a few borrowed ones, it excited quite a few. It was hard to believe. But the time has come, she crept up.



It has not become clear today that the United States, all together and each individually, owes everyone, and owes a lot. And it doesn't make it any easier for anyone. The question - "And who will give?", has been standing for a long time. A long time ago. It's just that the answer is much more complicated.

Counting trillions in someone else's pocket, and even for someone else's debt, is a thankless task. Although in the American specific case, no one has to count. It is known that the debt board in New York, as before, smoothly, no longer works. And what? Nobody even flinched.

Everyone and everything seems to know anyway, and, as expected, they had to raise the bar of debt even in the winter. But here's the bad luck - President Biden and his devoted Janet Yellen, who for years ruled the Fed, which printed dollars, and now - in the Treasury, which spends, interfere.

The question is who? Of course, the Republicans in Congress. But the default certainly scares them. Such are the grimaces of bipartisan democracy. And it is with her that it turns out, the money runs out, and debts accumulate.

Janet Yellen has already promised the media that she will "inform Congress when the government can return to normal debt service." There will be a limit, there will be a ceiling, there will be maintenance, that is, mandatory payments on US securities, of which Russia still has quite a few.


From Congress, the head of the Treasury was reminded of the old initiative of Donald Trump, who back in 2017 proposed to offset American debts with debts to Americans. Disputes with the IMF and the World Bank, with other countries are all trifles compared to the settlement with their own citizens.

Trump seemed to know they had money, even before the multibillion-dollar injection into the pandemic. And he believed, not without reason, that the settlement of debts would immediately strengthen confidence not only in the States proper, but specifically in the Republicans in power.

Goodbye, Democrats, or rather, goodbye forever! But it didn't work. Then the Congress was democratic. Now Republican, but the President is a Democrat, old, old.

Oh, I'll pass!


How many times in the United States over the past 10-15 years, and better in 22 years, the bar of public debt has been raised, anyone can count - there is an abundance of information on the network for this. But this is actually not very important, since no one will even think of canceling the trend outlined many years ago.

After all, it has already carried through so many times, and experts agree that it will carry through this one as well. Let's not be afraid of repetitions, because even today the public is reminded that the devil is not so terrible as he is painted. The size of the public debt is compared with the US GDP and complain that the dollar is under an unprecedented attack from China and its satellites, including from Russia.

Americans were once the world's creditor, but they have been building up their debt for a very long time, and it is growing faster than the country's GDP. In the current century alone, the US national debt has grown almost sevenfold. Almost a quarter of the US budget is already spent on servicing debt.

However, the prospect of living from default to default, like, for example, Argentina, is still considered fantastic for the States. Nevertheless, not only Republicans are already demanding budgetary reforms, although rumors about an attempt to reorganize the entire system of American financial management are definitely something from the field of conspiracy theories.

One thing is somewhat frightening - internal problems in the United States always mean attempts to solve them at the expense of the outside world. "Little Victorious" or the falling dollar game that no one wants to recognize is just one of those games. Although not taking advantage of the difficulties of a geopolitical adversary, whatever they may be, this is certainly a mistake.

What is a ceiling?


This is as short as possible. After all, whatever you say about the ceiling, but America, as they gave it, will continue to give it a loan. Especially their own citizens and businesses. Although credit story the country is already so tarnished that you will never wipe it off.


As soon as the US national debt reaches or almost reaches the ceiling, all the world's finances for the Fed turn into a kind of illusion. Purely outsider. Although the refusal to repay debts means really bad ratings and a drop in confidence in the advanced US economy.

But who trusts her? If only from under pressure, or in the position of the current Kyiv regime. But the default in the US is a powerful stimulus to the global crisis, and, as already mentioned, following the American banks, not just any one, but the Swiss Credit Suisse, went down the drain.

The global financial market is literally suspended on American papers and is unlikely to endure a refusal on them. Reset - as much as you like, but write-off - thank you. Coupled with cuts in government spending and social programs, and hence with unemployment and rising income disparities, the likelihood of large-scale shocks is growing.

Unpopular measures will be taken to reduce costs and increase incomes, unsecured, mind you that hardly anyone will like it. And in general, the likelihood of political crises, not only in the United States, will reach such heights that even the most liberal democracy will not help.

One of the bloggers successfully compared the ceiling of the national debt with the ceiling in the apartment. Break through - pay for repairs, rest and break - you have to pay even more. That's just to raise the ceiling in the apartment, in contrast to the public debt, you see, much more difficult.

Sleep, I'll forgive everything


In conclusion, a short digression is no longer into economics and finance, but into politics, which directly depends on them, but sometimes dictates to them.

So, debts, of course, can be written off, but by no means from everyone, especially if it is your own electorate. Debts can be drastically reduced in price, just as sharply knocking down the dollar. But it won't take long to finish the game not to a technical, but to a very real default and bankruptcy of the country as a whole.

The liberal party all over the world is already shouting, like Chekhov's - "this cannot be, because it can never be." Of course, without going into explanations, why actually? If it is profitable, then it is even very capitalistic, and even more so - globalist.


It is said about the electorate for a reason, since this electorate is not only Trump's, but also Biden's. Something by hundreds of thousands of citizens regularly flows from one to another, but it is very difficult to estimate how much this “something” is. The electorate is a living organism, and is constantly updated.

We have to work with him, tirelessly, in which there are actually a lot of dollars, and why the topic of default and bankruptcy began to arise so regularly in the United States is not easy to explain clearly. The main thing is that the electorate should not wither from this, but remain in good shape.

However, this is not a fact either, since elections in different countries show that someone benefits from an active electorate, and someone from a passive one, like the Australian animal koala. That is, high turnout or low turnout - politicians do not care at all.

In fact, the tone is still needed, because there are lower thresholds for voter turnout and there are some restrictions on the ability to manipulate the votes of voters - ordinary representatives of the electorate.

And it is not for nothing that the American media today are in a hurry to report on the growth of anxious moods among the population. Especially with regard to deposits in banks - do not forget that shortly before the disputes over the debt and its ceiling in the States, several banks collapsed at once, and with them the same unsinkable Credit Suisse.
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26 comments
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  1. +8
    20 May 2023 05: 26
    Do not exact, education is low. State. US debt mainly concerns state structures. And in order for the United States to pay, the requirement of the state that gave the loan is necessary. There are no such requirements. The bonds are being redeemed. In general, the picture here is abstract. Any aggravation in the world brings a lot of money first to media platforms and then to the real sector. And if there are hostilities, then for banks located in the shadow of the Klondike. Even Zinoviev wrote that if you remove the military base of the United States, then they will turn into nothing. A default is especially dangerous for those countries where the regions are directly subordinate to the center. In the United States, those states that are currently exempt from taxes will mainly suffer. The entire burden will fall on them.
    1. -2
      20 May 2023 05: 47
      Of course, repayments will come! Now they will raise the "ceiling" and print more green wrappers! And everyone will be happy! Satellites will buy debt securities and are happy with interest, the US government will also be happy, death has moved further! But how much the rope does not twist .... and then you think about debt, let the rest of the countries live within their means, but the "hegemon" no, will squander ...
      1. +1
        20 May 2023 07: 58
        Quote: Aristarkh Pasechnik
        They will raise the "ceiling" and print more green wrappers!

        If they print "candy wrappers" they will increase inflation, if inflation accelerates, it is necessary to raise the interest rate. No matter what you do, there will still be problems.
        1. +4
          20 May 2023 08: 20
          Quote: 27091965i
          If they print "candy wrappers" they will increase inflation

          They won't increase. They have inflation all over the world. And also the dollar is the strongest and most stable currency (for the last 100 years). And if in volumes, then 60% of the monetary reserves in the world fall on the dollar. And therefore, it is very premature to talk about the decline of the dollar.
  2. +5
    20 May 2023 06: 27
    Liberal party around the world
    Please announce all hangouts in a capitalist society. smile
  3. -2
    20 May 2023 08: 13
    I do not understand how you can be indebted to yourself! ???wassat In addition, a large amount of this money was lent to other countries! and now these countries are paying the US debt wassat many dollars are on the balance sheet of banks and individuals in other countries, i.e. included in the world economy. The main trouble in America is that it essentially produces luxury goods and not consumer goods, and Chinese consumer goods have come close in quality to American luxury goods
  4. 0
    20 May 2023 08: 47
    public debt to GDP is comparable to or greater than that of the United States: Spain, Singapore, Canada, Italy, Greece, Portugal, France, Japan, Belgium .. Japan has a public debt to GDP of 2 times! more than the United States, and somehow no one talks about default .... and at the same time, the United States has really big problems, is it about to collapse? in general, most of the countries of the world have a public debt from half to a whole GDP, but they don’t have a “machine” at the same time ... theoretically, someday, a default can happen, but looking at the past decades, there are at least no prerequisites for the next 10 years, from the word at all .. and despite the fact that almost no one in the world is profitable and does not need it, even more so ..
  5. +1
    20 May 2023 09: 06
    The public debt is distributed 1/4 of the debt to external borrowers and 3/4 is internal, which is why the banks are pouring into the United States. Would the authors also name for the United States which country they would wage a quick and victorious war with? Russia and China are clearly not suitable for this role, may greenland wassat .Money flows from Europe are not endless, the income of the military-industrial complex is the same printed dollars, which are again stored in banks (three-liter) in the USA. And they want to live still expensively, and inflation (dollars) cannot be thrown out of the country, The Saudis didn’t give oil, the Russians don’t give food, but the PRC is trying with the rest. That they’ll get out unequivocally and someone in the USA will have to suffer for it, and I suspect who? , but not vice versa.
  6. +3
    20 May 2023 09: 08
    Quote: Level 2 Advisor
    public debt to GDP is comparable to or greater than that of the United States: Spain, Singapore, Canada, Italy, Greece, Portugal, France, Japan, Belgium .. Japan has a public debt to GDP of 2 times! more than in the USA - and somehow no one talks about default ....


    It is not only the external public debt that matters, but also the internal one.
    Do the listed countries have the same credit rating as the USA?
    Some of the countries listed (Greece in particular) were on the verge of default. Some have crawled away from the brink thanks to outside help. The United States should not count on this: a small goat can be pulled out of the financial swamp, but not a huge hippopotamus.
    And defaults in the US have happened before. But they took place in a more benign environment, the current default may overlap with other problems (of which there are a whole bunch in the US), giving rise to a systemic crisis.
    The collapse will not really happen, most likely, but the US position will weaken.
    1. -1
      20 May 2023 09: 53
      Quote: Illanatol
      The collapse will not really happen, most likely, but the US position will weaken.

      I don’t think so far for US bonds, for most countries the benefit is greater than keeping money in their countries, since US bonds have a higher yield - the weakening of the United States will not happen, as they carry all the new money ... and the internal debt to the revolution is still I’ve never brought it .. well, they’ll “blow off” a dozen banks, disperse a couple of thousand disgruntled blacks, and that’s it ... yes, like a crisis, but it’s not even close to the collapse of the dollar ... subject to continued fulfillment of obligations to other countries- the fact that the whole world is carrying money to them will not affect it in any way .. the collapse of the dollar is not beneficial not only for the United States, it is not beneficial for the whole world, this is the point .. and if the Russian Federation is ready for hardship due to the collapse of the dollar, the rest it's not interesting, what's the point? the vast majority of the world is not against US hegemony, they don’t care which capitalist country is hegemony — they don’t shine for the role of the leader of the world, the main thing is that everything is normal in finances ..
  7. +2
    20 May 2023 09: 11
    Quote: aybolyt678
    I do not understand how you can be indebted to yourself! ???


    Elementary Watson. The money machine and the issue of dollars do not belong to the state.
    The FRS is a "joint stock company", a banking collective farm.
  8. +4
    20 May 2023 09: 15
    Quote: Stas157
    They won't increase. They have inflation all over the world. And also the dollar is the strongest and most stable currency (for the last 100 years). And if in volumes, then 60% of the monetary reserves in the world fall on the dollar. And therefore, it is very premature to talk about the decline of the dollar.



    Increase Yes, they dump inflation outside, but the external reservoir is also overflowing, especially since uncontrolled financial channels have been created that can send money back to the US (cryptocurrencies).
    The dollar has never been the most stable currency, the rate is constantly floating and its real purchasing power is falling.
    I remember the days when the dollar accounted for 85% of the world's money supply. Gradually, the dollar is losing ground and more and more quickly.
  9. +2
    20 May 2023 13: 55
    Quote: Level 2 Advisor
    I don’t think so far for US bonds, for most countries the benefit is greater than keeping money in their countries, since US bonds have a higher yield - the weakening of the United States will not happen, as they carry all the new money ... and the internal debt to the revolution is still I’ve never brought it .. well, they’ll “blow off” a dozen banks, disperse a couple of thousand disgruntled blacks, and that’s it ... yes, like a crisis, but it’s not even close to the collapse of the dollar ... subject to continued fulfillment of obligations to other countries- the fact that the whole world is carrying money to them will not affect it in any way .. the collapse of the dollar is not beneficial not only for the United States, it is not beneficial for the whole world, this is the point .. and if the Russian Federation is ready for hardship due to the collapse of the dollar, the rest it's not interesting, what's the point? the vast majority of the world is not against US hegemony, they don’t care which capitalist country is hegemony — they don’t shine for the role of the leader of the world, the main thing is that everything is normal in finances ..


    The highest yield is for those securities, bonds that are more risky. The more solid the bank, the less percentage of income it pays to depositors. They invested in American bonds because they were not the most profitable, but they were the most reliable. So to speak, a "safe haven" for capital. But that is in the past... it is no coincidence that gold prices began to rise, it is now the most reliable asset. In addition, the Yankees froze our assets, and this is a very bad precedent, moreover, for them. They broke the rules of the game, which undermined their credibility. The whole story with the default has ceased to be their internal affair, too much attention. Even if there is no default in the coming months, it is possible to downgrade the credit rating for the US, which will make loans more expensive for them. No one even remembers paying the main part of the external public debt, but the United States paid interest on it regularly until recently, paying off its government bonds. But there have been problems with this lately, even the interest has become difficult to pay, especially since other expenses have been drawn (buns for BLM, "green energy", assistance to Ukraine). So the consequences could be much more serious than in 2008.

    Most of mankind lived in a multipolar world, in a world in which there was no global hegemon (even ancient Rome was not like that, a regional power, by and large). So the majority is not at all opposed to returning to this state of affairs, dominating their region. There are many who want such - even Macron, even Erdogan, even the Saudis.

    There will be no hard collapse of the dollar, I agree. There will be a soft landing, already without the possibility of takeoff.
    In fact, this process is already underway.
    1. 0
      20 May 2023 14: 42
      Quote: Illanatol
      They invested in American bonds because they were not the most profitable, but they were the most reliable. So to speak, a "safe haven" for capital.

      I do not see that this has changed, is it now the problem that no one takes bonds? there is no such problem - they take it actively ...
      Quote: Illanatol
      They broke the rules of the game, which undermined their credibility.

      but they take bonds .. it means they didn’t undermine trust .. it’s just indicated to many that they need to obey and everything will be fine .. besides, while they simply froze this money ..
      Quote: Illanatol
      possibly downgrading the credit rating for the US, which will make loans more expensive for them

      by whom? bees vs honey? Will their own agencies lower their ratings? Oh well..
      Quote: Illanatol
      So the majority is not at all opposed to returning to this state of affairs, dominating their region.

      maybe someone doesn’t mind .. who will give them only, without permission? and the world is now capitalist, not feudal-there never was such a world..and capital, the current situation, is absolutely satisfied, capital has no nationality .. and who is "Marcon" against capital? Kennedy has already tried to be against.. world capitalist system - and Erdogan and the Saudis are already allowed to be regional powers, but they don’t climb and climb higher, there is no potential ...
      Quote: Illanatol
      In fact, this process is already underway.

      I don't see any sign of this.. or do you see a massive rejection of bonds, dollars, thousands of unemployed in the US, the US Army fleeing? there is at least something what happened give an example of what hit the dollar hard, besides talking about it around the world for decades, how? today - the world financial system without the dollar - will collapse and it will not be sweet for anyone, and the Russian Federation too .. who in the world dreams of plunging their country into chaos for 10-15 years with unclear prospects? Erdogan, Markon, Saudis? according to the Saudis and other resource sellers, most of all, by the way, they cut their oil, especially to anyone, etc. will not be needed until the peak of the crisis is passed, and this is not one or two years ... will they survive through savings? WHAT ARE THE SAVINGS? In bonds that cannot be cashed out ahead of schedule, at one moment .. in short, for today the collapse of the United States and the dollar is even less likely than the re-creation of the USSR ..
  10. +2
    21 May 2023 14: 08
    Quote: Level 2 Advisor
    I do not see that this has changed, is it now the problem that no one takes bonds? there is no such problem - they take it actively ...


    Do the Yankees think so too? By the way, at what percentage of the bonds go?


    Quote: Level 2 Advisor
    but they take bonds .. it means they didn’t undermine trust .. it’s just indicated to many that they need to obey and everything will be fine .. besides, while they simply froze this money ..


    Previously, the Yankees paid off old debts by issuing new bonds. It looks like this is just the problem. And not everyone is willing to listen. China - definitely not, and this country is one of the largest holders of such securities. The share of bonds in gold reserves is gradually decreasing.

    Quote: Level 2 Advisor
    By whom? bees vs honey? Will their own agencies lower their ratings? Oh well..


    Yes, it happens. The US is no longer at the top of the credit rating

    https://take-profit.org/statistics/credit-rank/


    Quote: Level 2 Advisor
    maybe someone doesn’t mind .. who will give them only, without permission? and the world is now capitalist, and not feudal, there has never been such a world either .. and capital, the current situation, is absolutely satisfied, capital has no nationality .. and who is "Marcon" against capital? Kennedy has already tried to be against .. the world capitalist system - and Erdogan and the Saudis are already allowed to be regional powers, but they don’t climb and climb higher, there is no potential ...


    And they won't even ask when the hegemon is sufficiently weakened.
    In the 19th century, the world was also capitalist, but it was multipolar. Britain was not the only pole of power.
    Capital is not united, even within the country there are different groups that squabble among themselves.
    Macron is a protege of the Rothschilds, who are in direct conflict with the American Rockefellers.

    Kennedy has nothing to do with it at all, he could have been killed for a variety of reasons.

    Being a regional power in the absence of a world hegemon is much more comfortable than walking under a hegemon even as a regional power.
    It's nicer to be a duke when there's no king over you.

    And the Yankees, by the way, do not allow Turkey to be a regional power at all. They are doing a lot to bring down the overly independent Erdogan. And against the Saudis, I'm sure they have sharpening. They can eventually remember what citizenship the terrorists had who staged September 11 ...
    1. -1
      21 May 2023 14: 31
      Quote: Illanatol
      Do the Yankees think so too? By the way, at what percentage of the bonds go?

      yes, that's right.. since 2016, the profitability has doubled..
      https://ru.investing.com/rates-bonds/u.s.-5-year-bond-yield
      actually, for this reason, there is no point in answering the rest in detail, since the scenario of the "fall of the USA" is clearly not the time to write yet ...
      Quote: Illanatol
      Capital is not united, even within the country there are different groups that squabble among themselves.

      world capital, this is noticeably higher than some groups squabbling within the country and they basically don’t care about the name of the country .. they care about the loot ..
      Quote: Illanatol
      It's nicer to be a duke when there's no king over you.

      and when was it that the duke did not have a king? what example do you have of a regional "duke" without a king over the past 200 years? only someone more serious than the African leader please hi
      Quote: Illanatol
      And the Yankees, by the way, do not allow Turkey to be a regional power at all. They are doing a lot to bring down the overly independent Erdogan. And against the Saudis, I'm sure they have sharpening. They can eventually remember what citizenship the terrorists had who staged September 11 ...

      I generally agree, but they don’t, they don’t let me be a regional, but they don’t let me be a regional outside of their control ..

      in the time of kings there were wars, mainly because of the ambitions of related rulers, the desire for fame, money, etc. now there are almost no kings with power .. but in the global world - you can influence everyone in one way or another, you can buy and install your own ruler, etc.. everything .. feudal lords, conquests, crusades, etc. have run out. now the capitalists rule, but they don’t need it, if it doesn’t make a profit, he doesn’t care where the plant is in the Russian Federation, the USA or Ukraine, the money comes from everywhere ..

      P.S. there is, let's say, conditional Laos with wild inflation, do you think they keep money in tugriks? and in the US inflation is less than in most countries of the world .. this is the question of the collapse of the dollar ..
  11. 0
    21 May 2023 17: 21
    I don't think you quite understand the function of US debt securities. If we discard the ritual dances in Congress around raising the US national debt bar in order to bargain for some of their domestic political and economic goodies, then they are able to repay any debts - in printed dollars, of course. It’s just that at one time a gang of American bankers fussed over the privatization of the printing press, and the US government is now obliged to pay them interest for receiving their own money from them, which they receive from bankers as if on credit, but are obliged to return it with interest (the body of the debt after returning to the Fed theoretically, it should be destroyed, and the bankers leave the interest to themselves - profit!) It’s just that the United States then pays with printed money all over the world for the resources and goods it consumes, but if then they want to sell these dollars on the American market, then it (the market) will be kaput! (and if not in the American one, it will still bring down the course). Therefore, these "extra" dollars, which other countries received in trillions, need to be "tied up", for which, instead of goods, the Americans sell these "securities" to these countries, thereby withdrawing dollars from circulation. Only whom of these "frozen" continues to increase, the interest paid on debts is already so high that they themselves need to be "neutralized", and gradually it will accelerate exponentially, when at first it seems slowly, and then faster and faster.
  12. 0
    22 May 2023 02: 26
    Quote: parusnik
    Liberal party around the world
    Please announce all hangouts in a capitalist society. smile

    The domestic liberal party at first did not see the crisis, now they say that the crisis is from the category of periodic ones. The dollar rises in price, so it is eternal. Default cannot be from the word at all. Well, their mantras will soon be refuted by reality.
  13. 0
    22 May 2023 09: 12
    Quote: Level 2 Advisor
    yes, that's right.. since 2016, the profitability has doubled..


    As mentioned above, the lower the credibility of securities, the higher their yield.
    The most reliable stocks/bonds have the lowest percentage of returns.
    An increase in profitability means an increase in credit interest. And the higher the interest, the more expensive the loan - the more difficult it is to repay. It's clear? And the problems with the US public debt lie in the fact that not the total amount of debt itself is growing at a faster pace, but the interest on this debt. They are getting harder to pay. To pay off earlier debts, you have to borrow again - already at a higher interest rate.
    And urine rushed through the pipes ... tongue

    Quote: Level 2 Advisor
    world capital, this is noticeably higher than some groups squabbling inside the country, and they basically don’t care about the name of the country .. they care about the loot.


    So because of the dough and the real power in conflict. There is never enough pies for everyone.

    "Sorry," Shark Dodson said, "Bolivar can't take two."
    This is the jungle, super predators are always crowded.

    Quote: Level 2 Advisor
    and when was it that a duke did not have a king? what example do you have of a regional "duke" without a king over the past 200 years?


    Why in the last 200 years? Well, okay ... until Bismarck and Wilhelm the First united Germany, there were many small states that were ruled by the elector dukes. These rulers obviously did not pull on full-fledged kings, because of the modesty of their possessions.
    Andorra, Liechtenstein, Monaco could hardly be called kingdoms either.

    Quote: Level 2 Advisor
    now the capitalists rule, and they don’t need it, if it doesn’t make a profit, he doesn’t care where the plant is in the Russian Federation, the USA or Ukraine, the money comes from everywhere ..


    Need to. Because property is nothing without rights. Well, they say - "the right of ownership."
    And law is the prerogative of the state, its power, including military power.
    "Rifle gives birth to power"
    Или:
    "- All so, said the baron, putting on his helmet - but cold iron rules over everything."

    The basis of US economic and financial dominance is military power. The Bretton Woods agreements would not have been concluded if the United States had not become the main winner in the Second World War.

    Therefore, a powerful state with a strong army is very necessary for Capital.
    Since property is only yours when you can defend it, if necessary, even with weapons in your hands. A business without a "roof" will become someone else's prey.
    "So says the Law of the Jungle." soldier
    1. 0
      22 May 2023 11: 49
      you know, we essentially have a discrepancy in only one thing, you think that the US / dollar is about to collapse, but I think that there are no real trends to draw such conclusions .. the fact that sooner or later there will be a collapse is understandable .. nothing lasts forever under the Moon .. but when - it is still absolutely unknown, and not earlier than "world capital" decides to do this, after creating a "new harbor" and transferring all assets there and creating a sane replacement, signs of which - on today you can’t see it .. I hope you don’t consider the holders of the Fed and other Rothschilds to be stupid people? And the fact that the collapse was about to happen back in the 80s was a lot of opinions, only the ruble collapsed in the end .. I explained why it would not happen just about - in the foreseeable future ..
      And do not forget, the collapse of the dollar and the US economy will hit hard around the world .. and the Russian Federation too .. it will be the Great Depression 2.0, only for the whole world .. and if there is an opinion in our country - well .. we will survive, for the sake of the collapse of the enemy - which is not a pity, then the whole world - why is this? what for them to start a wild crisis if they are not against the hechemonism of the United States? will support the United States - until the last purchase of dollars and securities of 90% of the countries of the world - it is due to this that it keeps ..

      Quote: Illanatol
      And the problems with the US public debt lie in the fact that not the total amount of debt itself is growing at a faster pace, but the interest on this debt. They are getting harder to pay. To pay off earlier debts, you have to borrow again - already at a higher interest rate.
      And urine rushed through the pipes ...

      You know, debt repayment, in essence, is always a problem .. but to this day, payments are made stably and on time .. as soon as it is different, the end of the USA is probably close .. but IN FACT, everything is paid .. you should not issue wishful thinking, for real..
      total: that the end of the dollar will be, of course, I agree with you, but that it is about to happen, I absolutely do not observe any signs ..
  14. 0
    22 May 2023 14: 51
    Quote: Level 2 Advisor
    you know, we essentially have a discrepancy in only one thing, you think that the US/dollar is about to collapse, but I think that there are no real trends to draw such conclusions.


    I never claimed such a thing. The USA is repeating the fate of the Roman Empire, their decline will last for decades. I wrote about the "soft landing", so do not attribute too much to me.

    Quote: Level 2 Advisor
    and not earlier than "world capital" decides to do this, having previously created a "new harbor" and transferred all assets there and created a sane replacement, there are no signs of which today .. I hope you do not count the holders of the Fed and other "Rothschilds" "Stupid people?


    Rothschild moved the headquarters of his financial empire from the United States to Hong Kong (Xianggang) a long time ago.

    I do not rule out that the "new harbor" has long been formed, but in a different format. Some elites believe that the former format - nation-states no longer correspond to the spirit of the times and a different one needs to be created - in which not only the economy, but also politicians become directly mega-corporations that are increasingly acquiring the features of sovereign states: their own symbols (analogous to the coat of arms), the constitution (corporate charter), law enforcement agencies (private intelligence services and PMCs).

    And the United States, like the British Empire earlier, the financial oligarchy itself can merge into the toilet.


    Quote: Level 2 Advisor
    And do not forget, the collapse of the dollar and the US economy will hit hard around the world .. and Russia too ..


    Did it ever occur to you that our rulers are already preparing for such a scenario? As part of it, there is a "divorce with the West", the creation of alternative political and economic ties with other centers of power. And in China, I am sure, they are also preparing little by little, and therefore they are not so afraid of the deterioration of relations with the United States, as it was in the recent past.
    And the West (and the Russian Federation and China) is actively helping us with its sanctions. The flag is in their hands, the drum is around their neck.
    I do not even rule out that one of the goals of the NWO is precisely in such a development of events.

    Quote: Level 2 Advisor
    You know, debt repayment, in essence, is always a problem .. but to this day, payments are made stably and on time .. as soon as it is different, perhaps the end of the USA is close .. but IN FACT, everything is paid ..


    That's just the point, that payments became already unbearable. Hence the threat of default.
    While they could pay - there was not even talk on this topic.
    Well, how much the rope does not twist ...
    1. 0
      23 May 2023 07: 00
      thanks for the nice thoughtful conversation hi Regarding the last comment, I almost completely agree ..
      Quote: Illanatol
      Did it ever occur to you that our rulers are already preparing for such a scenario?

      It came .. I really hope that this is done wisely and according to plan, otherwise it will be sad, and this, unfortunately, is a question of pure faith, and it may be so, or maybe not .. I even had a thought before that we are that "harbor") but then considered it wrong ..
  15. 0
    23 May 2023 09: 01
    Quote: Level 2 Advisor
    It came .. I really hope that this is done wisely and according to plan, otherwise it will be sad, and this, unfortunately, is a question of pure faith


    The criterion of truth, as you know, is practice. A person (team) proves his abilities with his achievements.
    Do some really think that the person who was able to reach the heights of power, the one who grew out of the role of "infant-heir", the one who outplayed the hardened oligarchs (BAB, Gusinsky, Khodorkovsky), the one who has been in power for more than 20 years and was able to fairly to strengthen your state - more stupid than local critics, who in life did not even lead the "city of Zh ... fence" (or a battalion of soldiers)?
    I prefer to look at things and evaluate them more realistically, without the blinkers of "wishlist". We do not have a fool on the throne, but "our own dragon" (as noted in one "perestroika film", the only way to escape from a dragon is to have your own dragon, alas).
  16. -1
    24 May 2023 22: 50
    If it doesn't, the public debt will increase. Default is not beneficial to anyone. And it will make it even worse for us.
  17. 0
    25 May 2023 09: 18
    Quote: Bolkonsky
    If it doesn't, the public debt will increase. Default is not beneficial to anyone. And it will make it even worse for us.


    If they do, this is only a delay, not a solution to the problem. The situation will repeat itself in a few months.
    For better or worse, we'll find out with time. I'm sure it will be better. Let's see, in short.
  18. 0
    27 May 2023 01: 55
    It's not about the age of their president. Yogis at 100 can be more flexible than many 30-year-olds. And the fact that, by eating animals, he prematurely aged his body, clogging the blood vessels with cholesterol, as a result of which he began to think badly.

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