The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation is expectedly silent, and I am absolutely sure that we will be waiting for the official version for a long time. Something tells me it will.
In terms of confirmation, it’s no longer funny, tears are already welling up. President of Belarus Lukashenko confirmed that 2 planes and 2 helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces were shot down in the Bryansk region. And they refer to it. No one else...
And here everything is as usual: if there are no explanations from those who could do this, then we ourselves will come up with and voice it. Well-fertilized black soil for "experts" of various kinds and properties. Moreover, this time so many versions have been put forward that the head is spinning.
What we have?
The first Mi-8 was shot down by a missile and crashed in the Klintsovsky district of the Bryansk region. The second shot down was a Su-34 fighter-bomber, which fell near the Ukrainian border in the village of Istrovka near the regional center of Starodub. The third loss was a Su-35 fighter shot down near the village of Suretsky Muravey, Klintsovsky District. The fourth was another Mi-8, which fell near the village of Volkustichi, Unechsky district, Bryansk region, 70 km from the border.
All nine pilots were killed.
And there is an important point here: if the six members of the Mi-8 crew did not have much chance, then the death of the Su-34 and Su-35 pilots, equipped with the latest in our technology in terms of rescue, says a lot. But let's go in order.
There were so many versions in three days that the mind went beyond the mind. But from the stream it turned out to choose a certain amount for discussion, because many (both smart and not at all) thought converged. And therefore, we will begin, as far as it is logical, to look at who saw what.
1. The version is the craziest. DRG
Yes, there are two contenders for the title of the craziest version, but this one is the most outstanding. It started at Strelkov / Girkin, then there was someone to pick it up and smash it.
The version is not something that does not stand up to criticism, it is even somehow not easy to criticize it. It turns out a non-science fiction action movie: four groups of Ukrainian specialists enter the territory of Russia, are located on the route of planes and helicopters flying from their bases, and the bases are in different places, I hope this is understandable.
Then, almost simultaneously, they fire off a certain number of missiles, shoot down all four aircraft and calmly leave for the territory of Ukraine.
And nobody saw anything. Heaps of people film the defeat of the plane and helicopter, but no one saw the launch, which was not without a trace. For MANPADS, with a missile range of an average of 5 km - fantastic.
But all these are really trifles, just those who rushed to talk about MANPADS in the hands of Ukrainian saboteurs did not see a photo of the helicopter blades shot through, which completely buries the MANPADS version.
MANPADS have a very small warhead, on average around the world up to 3 kg. That is why such a rocket is aimed at the most vulnerable spot - the engine. And it’s easier to hover over the temperature, and disable the aircraft.
And the blades pierced close to the center of rotation indicate that it was a large rocket, which was also guided by the heat of the engine, but fired a charge either from balls or from arrows into the helicopter from TOP.
So, if anything, the Buk works, which makes it a very unpleasant opponent.
2. Almost the craziest version, but the most disgusting one. Collaborators and traitors
There will be some quotes here. We will not advertise to people, replicating their stupidity and mediocrity, but there is no other way.
“This is a carefully planned operation.”
Agree. Unplanned operations usually end up wrong. We will not go for examples, but in this case we must agree - the operation was planned and carried out very efficiently. Four out of four - you know, it's strong.
The most obvious conclusion is that we are dealing with a betrayal on our part, someone leaked these groups and routes to the enemy "
Here is the clearest example of discrediting the Russian Aerospace Forces, for which the author will get nothing. With a light tap of the keyboard, Mr. "voenkor" accused of betrayal ... whom? And who knew about flight routes? Regiment commander? Regimental navigator? Chief of staff? And what, FSB officers should already be rushing to all of them? In all three divisions? And the officers of the regiments should already be lying “face to the floor” or with broken lips vying to testify about who they told about where the planes and helicopters will fly tomorrow?
Well, in the mythical modern Stirlitz, who, with the help of some tricks, received data on the composition and routes, I personally do not believe. So - the commanders of the dead pilots were written down as traitors.
Another statement on the topic from another "military correspondent":
“On the question of how the enemy learns about what and where we are flying, everything is very simple - they have a lot of eyes around airfields, and any program sees flights through satellites. In Mariupol, our military, through the radios squeezed from the Ukrainians, quickly learned that ours was flying. aviationthan from the headquarters "
Eyes around the airfields ... The gentlemen say it is completely tactless, it cannot be called a hint, that in Russia a traitor sits on a traitor and partisan detachments are at every step. They sit, you know, around airfields and watch where and who will fly.
Well, well, for more than 25 years I lived one and a half kilometers from such an airfield. And I watched flights until I got tired of this business to death. The plane takes off. And turns into a dot. And then disappears from view. And all that I, as a spy, could pass somewhere - yes, the couple took off. All.
Programs and satellites - yes. Especially programs on satellites, along with good optics. But what about those who are not lucky enough to live near the airfield? No, it’s so clear that our paladins in white armor just let someone hunt them down, but why is the entire population so dunked in the mud? Besides, it's unproven.
But we have such military correspondents and there will be no others. And those that are, see in every citizen of Russia a potential traitor. On special suspicion are residents of settlements near military airfields.
Apparently, for such reasons, “Interception” was launched in the Bryansk region, apparently with the aim of intercepting Ukrainian saboteurs coming out to traffic police posts. As far as I understand, no one was intercepted.
3. The version is not crazy, but incredible. Air defense of the RF Armed Forces
Some "experts" voiced the version that the planes and helicopters were shot down by their own air defense.
In general, of course, this happens quite often in war, and aviation receives from its own. cases история knows a lot. But all cases of "friendly fire" have reasons that are easy to classify:
- unpreparedness of the air defense calculation;
- non-working "friend or foe" transponders near aircraft;
- malfunction of the technical part;
- direct order.
The first option is how the Syrians shot down our Il-20. A difficult situation that leaves much to be desired in the preparation of the calculation, the old rocket and the old software - and here's the result. The missile captures the target it likes best, regardless of the responder. And that's it.
An example of the second option happened last year. The air defense of one country, which is not at war with anyone, spotted the plane. A Ukrainian-made transporter, in my opinion, An-26, which was slowly crawling somewhere about its business. And the defendant "friend or foe" did not work for him. Started calling on the radio - no answer. They sent a fighter from the nearest airfield, which was actually not very close. But the plane did not fly, there was not enough fuel, they did not have time to refuel it after the on-duty overflight of the territories. The pilot also yelled into the radio, he almost caught up with the transporter, but literally there was not enough fuel for 10 minutes.
Meanwhile, the 26th began to approach the capital. Not a country, but a region. And here's a picture for you: an airplane is flying. Does not respond to any inquiries. But the plane is yours. It seems to be. And what to do? What if they are already sitting there, and in the end, how will they arrange it in the USA?
In the end, the decision was made. A bonfire on the ground, an eternal memory to the crew (they turned out to be their own), all aviation was shaken up for compliance with flight rules and radio communications.
In principle, this case can also illustrate the third and fourth options.
But in our case, even the Ukrainian side, the Ukrainian media, express doubts that everything is so bad here. Yes, there was and always will be a chance of hitting friendly people, but it’s one thing to shoot down one target with an erroneous launch, and it’s quite another to arrange such an execution.
In addition, it personally doesn’t fit in my head how Russian air defense crews can shoot down FOUR of their targets with working “friend or foe” defendants. And in the same way, the option that all of our aircraft flew with transponders turned off does not fit into my head.
This, you know, is beyond even non-science fiction. Missiles flying at aircraft, despite the identification system or aircraft that do not include it.
Indeed, the most incredible version.
4. The version is less crazy and less incredible. Ukrainian Air Force fighters
There are still fighter jets in Ukraine. Both MiG-29 and Su-27. It is a fact. And they also have modern rockets. The UK and US have donated a number of AIM-120 AMRAAMs.
AIM-120, depending on the modification, fly at a distance of 70 to 105 and even 180 km. That is, enough to take off, gain altitude, see targets, aim and shoot. But the unpleasant moment is that the AIM-120 needs to “show” the target using the radar. That is, to find yourself in addition to the fact that any aircraft will certainly “light up” on enemy radars.
That is, aircraft to launch the AIM-120 will have to take off, gain a certain altitude, approach the launch site, climb even higher in order to capture the target with their radars and launch.
And here again questions to the air defense of Russia. Where it was and why it did not find Ukrainian planes is a question. That is, if there were planes. If not, then it’s not worth asking questions on this topic yet, although it is questions to our air defense that run like an orange thread through the entire article.
But in general, the version is viable, if only our air defense worked in the style of the three monkeys "I see nothing, I hear nothing, I will not tell anyone anything." If not, the situation is doubtful. Well, the Su and MiGs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine could not at one moment become invisible and not appear on the screens of the Russian army radar. Moreover, there are more than one observation posts.
So the version with fighters sneaking up on our planes and helicopters at ultra-low altitude does not look justified.
5. The most probable version. Ukrainian air defense
Novgorod-Seversky district of the Chernihiv region of Ukraine is separated from Klintsy, under which everything happened, by fifty kilometers. From 50 to 60 km to several settlements of the region, where there are all conditions in order to calmly locate anti-aircraft missile systems and a communications and guidance center.
That is, we are talking not only about the S-300V, which can easily hit all targets within a radius of 30 km around the city of Klintsy, but also systems of a shorter range.
Some analysts noted that the PAC-2 / GEM + missiles of the Patriot complex are able to hit at a distance of up to 100 km.
“But it is unlikely that the Armed Forces of Ukraine would have taken such a risk, putting one of the most advanced air defense systems at their disposal under attack”
Vice versa. Compared to how the Armed Forces of Ukraine hurriedly hit Luhansk with the newly arrived Shadow of the Storm cruise missiles, then the use of the Patriot is fully justified here. Demonstrating your success is, to a certain extent, a guarantee that in the future they will give something else that the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not have, but would very much like to receive.
And then, to some extent, Western arms manufacturers consider Ukraine as a kind of testing ground for testing their equipment and ammunition. This is quite a normal practice, given that the last time such an opportunity was provided 20 years ago. I mean Iraq. Everything else, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, you understand, are not the countries where you can use anti-aircraft missiles worth over a million dollars (a Patriot air defense missile is $3 million). They just don't have goals.
As for the NASAMS complex, it could also be used easily and naturally. It all depends on the range of missiles. If AIM-120C-5 with a range of 105 km, then why not? And the S-7 is already flying for 120 km. So it all depends on what the allies brought for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
But the Soviet S-300V and Buk are quite suitable in terms of their performance characteristics for such a task. That is, the Armed Forces of Ukraine had something to carry out this operation, but why it became such a revelation and surprise for us is a question.
The fact that the complexes were covertly advanced to the border, but our intelligence did not find out, is a fact. Therefore, the planes and helicopters that were on their territory were, frankly, taken by surprise. Is it a joke to shoot down two EW helicopters, whose specialization was precisely the stunning and suppression of air defense systems?
In general, with regard to helicopters, the moment that they were 50 kilometers from the line of contact deserves a separate investigation. These machines are completely unarmed and are excellent targets for any air defense systems. But, being 100-150 km from the LBS, they can very well perform the task of counteracting the work of the enemy's air defense systems.
As a conclusion, only questions
1. Who actually sent the "axes" to the front line and what this person was guided by - this is a question to which I would like to know the answer. This man, who planned the operation in such a way and approved it, is responsible for the death of nine people and four cars.
2. What did our RTR and air defense do that day? Russian Spring reported on a "massive launch". Our air defense, according to "RV", "some of the missiles were able to shoot down our air defense systems, but four missiles broke through." That is, exactly as much as needed. So sorry, but there are a lot of doubts here. And not a single confirmation of the work of our air defense. Alas.
3. How many times has Ukrainian air defense been destroyed in reports and reports? And, if it is really destroyed, then what happens?
4. Why is the enemy still calmly delivering any ammunition and equipment to the LBS, and does it with impunity?
5. Where is our air, space, radio engineering, army intelligence? Do we have any of the above that can detect such surprises in the future?
Of course, I would like to wait for at least some kind of reaction in the form of an official version from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.
However, the Ministry of Defense, Peskov, federal TV channels are still silent. Three days after the crash. Governor Bogomaz also did not speak again. The fact that the press attaché of the whole president of the allied Belarus works for them is nonsense, although Alexander Grigoryevich needs to be specially thanked. Otherwise, I would have walked in the rank of a fake news.
Eternal memory to the fallen soldiers. Deepest condolences to family and friends. And the expectation of at least some information from our leadership is not in the style of "the boat sank." But it is precisely this approach that leads to the emergence of the most insane and delusional versions on the independent Internet.
And the inhabitants of the town of Klintsy have so far begun to equip an impromptu memorial in memory of the dead pilots.