Experts consider the number of armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to be insufficient to conduct a large-scale offensive

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Experts consider the number of armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to be insufficient to conduct a large-scale offensive

According to the US leadership, Ukraine received everything necessary in the right quantity for the offensive, including armored vehicles, shells and missiles for air defense systems. It is believed that armored groups will be the main striking force in the upcoming counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The experts of the "Military Chronicle" decided to calculate how many tanks and other armored vehicles have been accumulated by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, how they intend to use it and what difficulties the Ukrainian military will face in the process of operating and conducting an offensive campaign using foreign military vehicles.



At the end of last year, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny said that Kyiv needed at least 300 tanks, 700 infantry fighting vehicles and about 500 artillery pieces. In January, Washington and Berlin agreed on the supply of German Leopard MBTs to Kyiv, both by Germany and other countries. The Pentagon, in turn, promised to send three dozen Abrams to Ukraine, albeit in an outdated modification and not earlier than this fall.

Following the latest meeting of the Contact Group of Allies of Ukraine at the Ramstein base, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said that 230 tanks had already been delivered to Kyiv. The experts of the "Military Chronicle" consider this figure too high. In addition, most of the tank fleet supplied by the West for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are not modern MBTs, but Soviet-type combat vehicles, including modernized ones: T-72M1, T-72EA, Polish PT-91 Twardy and Slovenian M-55S. In addition, the general list includes French-made AMX-10RC heavy wheeled armored vehicles, engineering vehicles based on Leopard 1 and Leopard 2 tanks, such as the Finnish Leopard 2R or the Norwegian NM189 Ingeniorpanservogn.

According to experts, in total Ukraine received 180 combat vehicles, instead of the requested three hundred. The situation is similar for artillery: the Western allies handed over to the Armed Forces of Ukraine a little more than 200 different guns out of 500 that Kyiv demanded.

Regarding the problems with armored vehicles that the Ukrainian military will face.

Firstly, most of the tanks were removed from long-term storage. They went through a little maintenance and minimal repairs before they were shipped. Due to the haste, these works were carried out without observing the proper regulations and were more of a cosmetic nature. A number of technical problems have not been solved at all.

Second. The entire motley selection of armored vehicles requires operational maintenance and repair work, taking into account the specifics of specific modifications of the MBT. This problem will become especially acute just at the moment of conducting active hostilities, when the failed machines must be restored as quickly as possible. For Soviet tanks, Ukraine has the necessary repair base and trained personnel, which are absent in the case of NATO equipment.

For repairs, the vehicles will have to be evacuated from the front line and delivered to Poland, Romania or Slovakia. This will create additional logistical problems, and the process of restoring armored vehicles and returning them to the front will take several weeks.

Another problem will be the availability of trained crews. Most of the trained Ukrainian tankers were destroyed during the second year of fighting. If the first wave of the offensive bogs down, a tank reserve will be required. Whether the Armed Forces of Ukraine have trained crews to form the second echelon of the offensive is unknown.

Most likely, experts say, for the first wave of the offensive and the main counterattack, the Ukrainian command will use the Soviet tanks available and supplied by the Western allies. They will try to save foreign armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they will be used mainly for short-term and short-range strikes. Western tanks, well protected by the Bradley and Marder IFVs, are most likely prepared for a quick breakthrough in one or two directions, but not for protracted battles.

Summarizing all of the above, experts come to the conclusion that the existing armored vehicles, coupled with the problems of its maintenance and repair, the Ukrainian army is clearly not enough for any large-scale and long-term offensive operation.
  • General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
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28 comments
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  1. +7
    7 May 2023
    Of course, a lot of scrap metal was sent to Ukraine, and not only armored.
    But I don't think it's worth it. Who will tell the truth now?
    War is not only in the trenches.
    Desu may be launched by a specialist
    1. +3
      7 May 2023
      Delivers who can.
      We also supply there not only the latest, but also t 62
    2. +5
      7 May 2023
      Exactly. Multiply the number officially set by two, and on the territory of Romania and Poland a reserve of armored vehicles from the US army has been created for emergency transfer to Ukraine in order to compensate for losses in the current mode. We are talking about thousands of armored vehicles of various classes.
      1. 0
        7 May 2023
        Summarizing all of the above, experts come to the conclusion that the existing armored vehicles, coupled with the problems of its maintenance and repair, the Ukrainian army is clearly not enough for any large-scale and long-term offensive operation.
        project on 1941 ... insanity ... think, on social networks, the Germans are discussing whether they will have time to hot kruosans in Paris ...
  2. +2
    7 May 2023
    There is enough equipment there to break through the defense in some place. The question is what will happen next. Some of the vehicles will be destroyed or damaged, it may turn out that all this will crawl into a fire bag.
    1. +1
      7 May 2023
      APU will break through to Melitopol. This is quite realistic to implement on fast armored personnel carriers.
      1. 0
        7 May 2023
        Quote: Alexej
        APU will break through to Melitopol. This is quite realistic to implement on fast armored personnel carriers.

        May be . Set up a show. Media show .. The fact is that ours will destroy all this stuff.
        1. Uno
          +1
          7 May 2023
          A fact is usually called an action that happened, and until it happened, you can call it anything, but not a fact)
    2. -1
      7 May 2023
      Quote from: dmi.pris1
      There is enough equipment there to break through the defense in some place. The question is what will happen next.

      Oh! No matter how much you give, it won't be enough.
      1. +3
        7 May 2023
        Without air cover, without effective military air defense, arranging a big battle is not just risky, but rather you can get a complete kirdyk. True, it is worth noting that the opposite side, we, must effectively use our advantage !!!
  3. +3
    7 May 2023
    Do military experts know the exact number of delivered APU or do they rely on media publications?
    1. +3
      7 May 2023
      Quote: tralflot1832
      guided by publications in the media?

      The main thing is that our troops would have information about the locations of this equipment. Large trawls on which they are secretly brought up or places of unloading on the railway. almost impossible to hide. Judging by the frequency of missile strikes, such information is received systematically. And I hope no one will think of saving on intelligence.
  4. +2
    7 May 2023
    Enough for an offensive, not enough ... the main thing is that the disagreements with the orchestra have been settled. And then ho..ly already began to rejoice, and for all those who are not indifferent, the mood has been spoiled all these days.
    1. 0
      7 May 2023
      And what do we know about what is settled and what is not? And no one has canceled the information war and misinformation ....
  5. +3
    7 May 2023
    It is believed that armored groups will be the main striking force in the upcoming counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
    NWO once again proved that the main striking force is ARTILLERY. That is, the main blows will be delivered by it, and tanks and infantry will already consolidate success
    1. +2
      7 May 2023
      Quote: svp67
      NWO once again proved that the main striking force is ARTILLERY. That is, the main blows will be delivered by it, and tanks and infantry will already consolidate success

      Yes, many do not understand this.
      Only the competent use of artillery can provide a breakthrough defense. Or vice versa to disrupt the attack of the enemy.
      And everything is sad with Ukraine with artillery.
      Over the past 4 months, Ukraine has lost more than 800 large-caliber guns. About 200 guns were delivered by the West during the same time. That is, the weapons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are much weaker than 4 months ago.
      This is indirectly confirmed by the fact that Ukraine has stopped moaning about small deliveries of artillery shells.
      Remember six months ago, Ukraine wanted to increase the supply of shells, and the West shrugged. They say that we have already given away what was in the warehouses, and the current production does not allow us to exchange fire on equal terms with Russian artillery.
      Most likely, Ukraine has ceased to experience a shortage of ammunition, not because the West has sharply increased the production of shells (all experts say that this is impossible in such a period), but the reason is that Ukraine has lost a huge amount of artillery. And now the remaining guns have become enough of those batches of shells that the West sends.
  6. +4
    7 May 2023
    Yes, maintenance and repair will be the Achilles' heel of the current army.

    With new equipment from one plant, there are problems both in the technical part and with spare parts. And here are dozens of nomenclatures, from different countries, and even from storage, and it’s still not clear who shot it and how. Now the invariable rubber bands will begin to crumble, oil or coolant will pour and think about where and how to unscrew, what and where to pour and how to carry this arsenal of liquids and tools with you ..

    So out of the 180 tanks counted, 30 pieces can be safely crossed out for non-combat losses. After the SVO, when the data is declassified, it will be interesting to see how many percent of this equipment did not survive the first march
  7. +3
    7 May 2023
    Summarizing all of the above, experts come to the conclusion that the existing armored vehicles, coupled with the problems of its maintenance and repair, the Ukrainian army is clearly not enough for any large-scale and long-term offensive operation.
    . What does success, scale, losses, and so on have to do with it ... THE BIG BOSS said it was necessary, so ... but here the options can be the most unexpected.
  8. -3
    7 May 2023
    1. Even a short-term breakthrough in the Crimea will do things.
    2. Their problems have our problems, and it is not known what will play. After Kyiv, Kharkov, Kherson, we have a rich experience of mistakes.
    Not the fact that all our commanders have grown wiser sharply. Not the fact that the problems of communication and data transmission have been solved.
    3. The use of such a number of tanks will lead to losses in any way, and it is not yet known who will have more of them. It is not yet clear who will have the advantage in long-range shots.
    ______
    The enemy is still strong, and it is impossible to relax.
  9. +2
    7 May 2023
    People who understand military affairs have no doubts that the Russian army will not wait for this offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in order to conduct a counteroffensive and destroy the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass completely, and then march through Ukraine with flags in a solemn march))), burning out the echoes of fascism along the way and local Nazis... Moreover, everyone is ready for such a turn, except for the bloody clown and his gang, as well as the drugged West...
    1. +1
      7 May 2023
      Quote: Andrey Andreev_2
      march through Ukraine with flags in a solemn march

      Where, from behind every second corner, the boys will look unkindly, aiming panzerfaust.
      Thank you, they already threw hats and marched in a solemn march a year ago.
      It's time to die.
      Ours is not there.
      By the way, "Plan B" should always be ready, in case the Armed Forces of Ukraine break through to the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov, the destruction of the Bridge, the blockade of Crimea, the attack on Bryansk ....
      In short, if, as always, everything goes wrong, as we decided here at VO.
      Yes
  10. +1
    7 May 2023
    Experts consider the number of armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to be insufficient to conduct a large-scale offensive

    Yes, they have enough of everything there, and these experts are ordinary misinformers.
  11. +3
    7 May 2023
    Let me just remind you that the breakthrough with the subsequent "regrouping" in the Kharkiv region was organized by the farmers in general on Hummers and pickups. Therefore, do not throw hats.

    Firstly, most of the tanks were removed from long-term storage. They went through a little maintenance and minimal repairs before they were shipped. Due to the haste, these works were carried out without observing the proper regulations and were more of a cosmetic nature. A number of technical problems have not been solved at all.


    It is written very confidently that the author himself took part in the reactivation of the tanks. But I would like some evidence.

    In addition, most of the tank fleet supplied by the West for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are not modern MBTs, but Soviet-type combat vehicles, including modernized ones: T-72M1, T-72EA, Polish PT-91 Twardy and Slovenian M-55S.


    And they will be opposed, as I understand it, exclusively by the T-14 and T-90M, and not the same T-72, T-62 and T-55?
    1. +1
      7 May 2023
      Helicopters and bombers must resist them. For tanks are exchanged for tanks 1:1, and helicopters for tanks 1:15.
  12. +6
    7 May 2023
    Ukraine sometimes glows with equipment that was not announced anywhere at all that it was transferred. Therefore, it is not possible to calculate how much and what was actually transferred there from open sources
  13. +1
    7 May 2023
    I have a cat in a tray better versed than all these experts for all occasions. The main thing is a smart face.
  14. 0
    7 May 2023
    In autumn, too, it was not enough, but, sadly, others fled, in the sense of regrouping so that their heels sparkled.
  15. +1
    7 May 2023
    We should not count on the fact that they do not have or lack something. On the contrary, they should proceed from the fact that they have everything and have enough of everything. As the saying goes, it's better to be overdressed than underdressed.

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